## _cr14248 - APPENDIX TABLES ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [_cr14248 - APPENDIX TABLES](https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2014/_cr14248.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2014/_cr14248.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2014/_cr14248.pdf.json) --- ### Overall assessment and scope - Paraguay participates in the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) since September 2001; metadata posted on IMF’s DSBB. - Report updates February 2006 assessment using May 2012 vintage of the DQAF. - Datasets covered: national accounts (NA), consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI), government finance statistics (GFS) and public sector debt statistics, monetary statistics, and balance of payments (BOP) and international investment position (IIP) statistics. - Compilers/disseminators: - Central Bank of Paraguay (CBP): all datasets except GFS. - Ministry of Finance (MOF): GFS. - Directorate General of Statistics, Surveys and Census (DGEEC): main national statistical agency for demographic/social statistics (not covered). ### Key findings — achievements since 2006 ROSC Data Module - Adequate methodological treatment of two large binational hydroelectrical enterprises to reflect contribution to GDP, BOP, and international accounts. - Quarterly national accounts compiled and disseminated; integrated economic accounts up to net lending. - New CPI series (December 2007=100) and PPI series (June 2011=100) with methodological improvements. - Inclusion of credit unions in monetary statistics since end-2008 (not included in domestic publications). - Easier data access via official websites and adoption of advance release calendars for most statistics. ### Key findings — persistent shortcomings - Two GDDS exceptions: - Depository corporations (DC) survey compiled monthly with one-month lag but not disseminated. - Debt service payment schedules for public and private external debt not disseminated. - Human resources: - CBP: minimally adequate for current programs; insufficient for developmental work (2008 SNA and BPM6 migration). - MOF: clearly insufficient to compile comprehensive and timely GFS, especially migrating to GFSM 2001. - DGEEC: lacks autonomy and sufficient human, financial, technological resources; censuses and surveys mostly financed by external loans/grants. - Legal/institutional: - Appropriateness of central bank compiling price statistics questioned with move toward inflation targeting. - MOF responsibility for compiling/disseminating GFS supported only by internal provision (under review). - Data sharing and coordination procedures within MOF and between MOF and other agencies need improvement. - Methodological migration: - Price indices and monetary statistics broadly follow international standards. - NA and BOP broadly follow 1993 SNA and BPM5 respectively; program under development for 2008 SNA and BPM6. - No migration path adopted to GFSM 2001. - Source data and techniques: - Monetary statistics appropriately treated; other datasets need source data improvements. - Statistical techniques improvements needed for NA and to lesser extent GFS and BOP. - Interdataset reconciliation: - Public information permits only partial reconciliation across datasets; regular reconciliation and closer interagency coordination required. - Metadata and communication: - Metadata on national websites not easily available; GDDS metadata not updated since November 2004 (revised GDDS metadata later posted). - Revision policies established but not communicated publicly. - User assistance could be improved (e.g., sector-specific contact information). ### Serviceability and accessibility - Serviceability: assessed as broadly satisfactory; data disseminated with GDDS-recommended periodicity and timeliness except DC survey and total external debt service schedule. - Accessibility: improved since 2006 with advance release calendars and more user-friendly CBP website; statistics released simultaneously to all users. - Remaining issues: - Metadata not easily accessible. - Need for interactive online database and sector-specific contacts. ### SDDS review — coverage, periodicity, and timeliness issues to address before SDDS subscription - Real sector: - PPI timeliness needs improvement from five weeks to one month after reference month. - Monthly production indices (IMAE) timeliness needs improvement from nine to six weeks (one month encouraged). - Fiscal sector: - Annual consolidated general government operations disaggregated by major components should be disseminated within six months after reference year (quarterly with one-quarter lag encouraged). - Quarterly central government debt with one-month lag, disaggregated by remaining maturity, residency, instrument, and currency. - Improve timeliness for monthly consolidated central government operations from about 75 days (year-end data) to one month after reference month. - Financial sector: - Disseminate depository corporations survey monthly with one-month lag. - Disseminate daily data on short-term and long-term interest rates on government securities. - External sector: - Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity to be disseminated monthly with one-month lag (one-week lag encouraged). - SDDS encourages additional data dissemination currently missing for Paraguay (examples preserved verbatim): - Real sector: (i) quarterly sectoral balance sheets with a one-quarter lag; (ii) monthly or quarterly forward-looking indicators with a one-month or a one-quarter lag, respectively; periodicity and timeliness for savings and gross national income from annual to quarterly and from a three-quarter to a one-quarter lag, respectively. - Fiscal sector: (i) quarterly general government gross debt at nominal value (disaggregated by debt instrument, currency, and residence of the creditor; memorandum items: general government debt securities and loans by remaining maturity, and debt securities at market value); (ii) debt-service projections for long- and short-term debt with a three-month lag. - Financial sector: (i) monthly disaggregated claims on other residents sector with a one-month lag (broken down by other nonfinancial corporations and households/NPISH). - External sector: (i) quarterly total external debt (by currency, debt service payment schedule, and short-term remaining maturity) with a one-quarter lag; (ii) quarterly BOP and IIP data disaggregated by BPM6 standard components with a one-quarter lag. ### Assessment by agency and dataset (method and presentation) - Quality assessed using May 2012 DQAF and a four-point rating scale. - Prerequisites of data quality and assurances of integrity (Dimensions “0” and “1”) presented by data-producing agency in Tables 2a–c. - For each dataset, methodological soundness, accuracy and reliability, serviceability, and accessibility (Dimensions “2” to “5”) presented in Tables 3a–f. - Table 1 summarizes DQAF 2012—Summary Results using key: O, LO, LNO, NO, NA. ### Users’ survey — methodology and results - Survey conducted with assistance of CBP; 316 targeted users contacted; 73 responses received — response rate 23 percent. - 2006 ROSC users’ survey had 40 targeted users respond. - On five point scale (1 = poor and 5 = excellent), average rating for overall quality of official statistics for all sectors was 3.8 (2006 users’ survey overall rating was 3.2). - Key user concerns: - Need for interactive online database to select time series and frequency. - Metadata not easily accessible. - Outdated base year of national accounts statistics. - Poor measurement of informal sector activity. - CPI geographic coverage should extend beyond Greater Asunción Area. - GFS should cover entire public sector rather than only central government. - Coordination between CBP and MOF should improve, particularly on external debt statistics. - BOP statistics do not capture cross-border trade and capital flows accurately; trade data lack good estimates of informal trade. - Data on direct investment abroad unavailable and direct investment in Paraguay may be underestimated. ### Statistical capacity and integrity - Legal/institutional environment: - CBP compilation/dissemination based on legal framework supporting mandatory reporting by financial sector and confidentiality. - Statutory support for MOF compiling/disseminating GFS limited to internal MOF provision (under review). - Statistical Law of 1942 designates DGEEC as main statistical agency with coordination responsibility, but central role not materialized due to lack of autonomy and resources. - Assurances of integrity: - CBP: technical institution with administrative and normative autonomy; independent in choice of sources, methods, and dissemination within resource limits; terms and conditions public. - MOF: produces GFS on impartial basis; terms and conditions for GFS compilation not publicly known. - Internal rules provide staff behavior and administrative guidelines, made known to staff. ### Serviceability and GDDS compliance highlights (Appendix I) - Selected coverage status: - GDP, Gross national income, capital formation, savings: Yes (meets GDDS). - CPI: Yes (meets GDDS); geographical coverage restricted to Greater Asunción Area. - PPI: Yes (meets GDDS); coverage not complete (e.g., electricity production not covered). - Depository corporations survey — mixed: CBP compiles but does not disseminate DC survey. - Public external debt-service schedule: No (not disseminated). - Selected timeliness examples preserved exactly where provided: - PPI: Paraguay timeliness 5W (needs improvement to 1M). - IMAE (Production index): Paraguay timeliness 9W (needs improvement to 6W or 1M encouraged). - CPI: Paraguay timeliness 1 W. - Central government monthly consolidated operations: Paraguay monthly timeliness 1M (75D in December noted). - Central bank monetary base: Paraguay timeliness 10D. - Depository corporations survey: Paraguay timeliness 25D for some aggregates. ### Staff's cross-cutting and sectoral recommendations (preserved wording and priorities) - Cross-cutting (High Priority): - Give higher priority to statistical functions and promote adoption of a modern Statistics Law that clearly assigns responsibilities among data-producing agencies. - Provide adequate staff resources and other resources to assure timely and sustainable compilation and dissemination of statistics in accordance with current international standards. - Improve and institutionalize data sharing and overall coordination between agencies. - Establish regular mechanisms for enhancing intersectoral data consistency. - Other cross-cutting: - Update and maintain GDDS metadata. - Develop medium-term plan to subscribe to SDDS by 2017. - Enhance data and metadata accessibility and sector-specific contact information on CBP and MOF websites. - Strengthen and publicize data revision policies and practices. - National Accounts (High Priority): - Update 1994 base year of national accounts. - Develop plan to implement 2008 SNA with clear timetable and activities. - Implement periodic economic surveys covering manufacture, services, and other relevant activities. - Maintain regularly updated business register. - CPI (High Priority): - Conduct a new Household Budget Survey to update CPI weights. - PPI (High Priority): - Remove imports from PPI scope, in line with 2004 PPI Manual. - GFS (High Priority): - Assign responsibility for compiling/disseminating GFS to specific MOF unit immediately. - Assign by Law to MOF responsibility for compiling/disseminating GFS and oblige public units to provide necessary information with penalties for non-reporting. - Adopt GFSM 2001 and PSDSG methodology and prepare detailed migration plan and timetable. - Define institutional structure of general government and public sector in accordance with international standards. - Monetary Statistics (High Priority): - Expand coverage of ODC survey to include largest credit unions, which account for 15 percent of deposits of the system. - Sign formal agreement with INCOOP to obtain regular submission of credit union data. - Disseminate DC and ODC surveys compiled by CBP. - BOP (High Priority): - Develop comprehensive plan to migrate BOP and IIP to BPM6 with actions and key target dates. - Supplement direct investment survey data with balance sheets and income statements to cover nonresponse; prepare and maintain register of direct investment enterprises. - Improve adjustments in estimation of foreign trade, revising process for goods leaving commercial free zones (“re-exports”) using Directorate General of Customs data. ### Detailed methodological findings — National Accounts (selected) - Concepts/definitions: - NA compiled broadly in accordance with 1993 SNA; program under development to change outdated base year (1994=100) and implement 2008 SNA recommendations. - Scope: - Two binational hydroelectrical enterprises included per 2008 SNA. - No independent estimates of non-observed economy after 1997. - Annual and quarterly GDP published by production and expenditure approaches (current and constant 1994 prices); annual GDP by income approach. - Sequence of accounts up to capital account compiled according to 1968 SNA. - Source data and techniques: - No comprehensive data collection program; no annual surveys; excessive use of fixed coefficients for value added and household consumption due to lack of source data. - Supply and use tables compiled for 1991-1997 but discontinued. - Compilation and revisions: - Revision policy: schedule released and followed; preliminary data identified; revisions not systematically analyzed or described beyond press release. - Recommendations (selected): - Apply double deflation/inflation method annually where possible; compile supply and use tables; assess use of chain-linked indices. ### Detailed methodological findings — CPI (selected) - Concepts/definitions: - Largely in accordance with Consumer Price Index Manual 2004. - Basket: 450 products representative of urban households of Greater Asunción Area; represents 43.3 percent of total urban population. - Weights and sources: - Weights from 2005-2006 Household Budget Survey; weights should be updated at least every five years. - Coverage and timeliness: - CPI compiled monthly and disseminated within one week after end of reference month; meets GDDS. - Statistical techniques and validation: - Uses geometric mean for elementary aggregates; imputation methods follow recommended practices. - CPI data considered definitive and not subject to revisions; weight updates irregular. - Recommendations: - Conduct new HBS to update weights; consider study to assess inclusion of prices from areas not currently covered. ### Detailed methodological findings — PPI (selected) - Concepts/scope: - PPI concepts largely in accordance with 1993 SNA, but exports are excluded while imports are included (contrary to 2004 PPI Manual). - PPI covers agriculture, forestry and fishing, mining and quarrying, and manufacturing; does not cover electricity and water supply, construction, and other services. - Source data and techniques: - Weights derived from supply and use tables and administrative records; periodicity/timeliness of source data in line with standards. - Prices filtered for coding/editing errors; imputation and quality adjustments follow international practices. - Timeliness: - PPI compiled monthly and disseminated within five weeks after reference month; meets GDDS but timeliness target to one month encouraged. - Recommendations: - Remove imports from PPI scope; expand scope gradually to include exports, electricity and water supply, then construction and services. ### Detailed methodological findings — GFS (selected) - Methodology: - GFS compilation/dissemination based on GFSM 1986; no migration path to GFSM 2001 adopted. - Compilation of debt data partially based on PSDSG guidelines. - Scope/coverage: - GFS cover only budgetary central government; other levels available but not disseminated. - No data for other economic flows or balances and only partial data for stocks. - Recording/valuation: - Recording is on mixed cash and commitment basis; no arrangements to convert to accrual basis. - Data quality and dissemination: - Source data not regularly assessed against other related sources; some manual data entry; bridge tables used for IMF GFS Yearbook. - GFS not disseminated according to GFSM 2001 and PSDSG 2011 components; not user-friendly formats; not released per preannounced schedule. - Recommendations (selected): - Assign GFS responsibility within MOF by law; adopt GFSM 2001 and PSDSG and prepare migration plan; disseminate GFS for general government and broader levels; publish metadata on MOF website. ### Detailed methodological findings — Monetary statistics (selected) - Concepts and scope: - Monetary statistics consistent with MFSM and MFSCG; DC survey covers CBP, 16 commercial banks, 11 finance companies; credit unions not included in published CBP monetary statistics. - CBP does not compile OFC survey. - Classification/basis: - Classification follows MFSM with exceptions: no breakdown between other nonfinancial corporations and households/NPISHs; accrued interest not sectorized by ODC. - DC survey produced on accrual basis; financial instruments recorded at market value. - Source data and validation: - DC survey based on consolidated balance sheets; commercial banks and finance companies report to Superintendence of Banks (SB), which transmits aggregated data to DEM. - Verifications performed only when inconsistencies observed; DEM lacks disaggregated data to check interbank positions or domestic public debt. - Timeliness and dissemination: - Monetary aggregates and central bank data meet GDDS; DC survey not disseminated as recommended. - Monetary data posted on CBP website by the 25th of following month; central bank data on the 10th. - Recommendations (selected): - Include largest credit unions (accounting for 15 percent of deposits) in ODC survey; sign agreement with INCOOP; compile and disseminate OFC survey; disseminate DC and ODC surveys. ### Detailed methodological findings — BOP and IIP (selected) - Concepts and migration status: - External sector statistics follow BPM5; a plan to implement BPM6 under development; since 2012 two binational hydroelectrical enterprises considered 50 percent residents. - Scope and source data: - Most resident-nonresident transactions covered; coverage of services and financial assets/liabilities of nonfinancial private sector insufficient; response rate of surveys decreased in recent years. - Main sources: administrative records, direct reporting, surveys for direct investment. - Valuation and recording: - Data mostly at market prices; some items (e.g., portfolio investment) not market-valued; interest on public sector debt not recorded on accrual basis. - Grossing/netting procedures broadly consistent with BPM6. - Validation and revisions: - Survey data validated against balance sheets and customs data; regular revision studies not conducted. - Periodicity and timeliness meet GDDS; quarterly data disseminated with a three-month lag; revision cycle predetermined; data preliminary during eight quarters. - Recommendations (selected): - Develop BPM6 migration plan with actions and key dates; supplement direct investment surveys with balance sheet/income statement data; prepare/register direct investment enterprises; obtain currency of denomination of financial assets/liabilities to exclude exchange rate changes when estimating transactions from positions; record interest on external debt on accrual basis. ### Staff's implementation monitoring and authorities’ responses (selected) - CBP commitments: - Update and post GDDS metadata on CBP website in Spanish and English. - Develop medium-term plan to subscribe to SDDS by 2017. - Since end-2013 CBP updating NA base year and expanding integrated accounts guided by 2008 SNA; timetable developed for next 2 ½ years. - CBP shortened release time for IMAE and working on inter-institutional agreements for timely data submission. - PPI imports to be removed; PPI renamed and previous general index to be renamed wholesale price index. - Monetary survey published in Statistical Annex since May 2014 covering banking system; plan to augment with Type A cooperatives after agreement with INCOOP. - MOF responses (selected): - MOF endorses implementation of GFSM 2001 methodology and requests IMF assistance to evaluate resources and requirements. - Action plan highlights (timing preserved): establish data sharing agreements (Short term), conduct periodic meetings for inter-sectoral consistency (Short term), promote adoption of modern Statistics Law (Medium term), provide adequate staffing/resources (Medium term), develop SDDS subscription plan (Medium term). ### Users’ survey — selected quantitative results (preserve numeric values exactly) - Questionnaires sent: 316; Responses received: 73; Response rate = 23 percent. - On five point scale average overall rating = 3.8 (2006 rating = 3.2). - Use of official statistics (percent of total responses): NA 60%; CPI 90%; PPI 34%; GFS 40%; MFS 67%; BOP 41%. - Sources of official statistics used: Official press releases/publications 86%; Official website 90%. - Accessibility: Can easily access official statistics: Yes 89%; No 11%. - Awareness of release calendar: Yes 45%; No 55%. ### Staffing, resources, and organizational details (selected numeric facts) - DCN (National Accounts Division) staff: 20 employees; 17 have university degree. - Current compilers of national accounts: five employees (average staff seniority approximately twelve years). - New hiring intended for base change: eight employees; supporting staff: three; staff studying abroad: four. - Plan: twenty additional employees expected by mid 2014 for rebasing project. - DMI (Domestic Market Division) staff: team of 23 staff members (one division chief, three section chiefs, nine supervisors, ten price collectors). - DEMF (Monetary Studies Department) staff: total 14 staff; DEM permanent plant five staff (two overseas pursuing post-graduate studies). - Type A credit unions: defined as total assets above US$ 10 million; expected four new Type A in 2014. - Credit unions account for around 15 percent of deposits of the ODC sector. - OFC aggregated total assets represent a little less than five percent of total assets of the ODC sector. - CPI basket: 450 product items (359 goods and 91 services); CPI sample around 16,500 price quotes in more than 1,200 outlets monthly. - PPI sample: around 2,500 prices for 185 produced products; imports represent 45.2 percent of the June 2011 PPI basket. - CPI geographic coverage: Greater Asunción Area representing 43.3 percent of total urban population. - IMAE timeliness cited as 9W (paraguay), GDDS recommends 6–12W. ### Metadata, dissemination, and IT projects - GDDS metadata had not been updated since November 2004 (revised metadata posted March/April 2014 as noted in dataset sections). - CBP working on interactive online database/data warehouse; target/completion references: first half/second half of 2014 appear in mission notes. - CBP posts informative methodological notes in Informe Económico; some MOF metadata not on MOF website and link to DSBB removed in 2008 (MOF recommitted to updating). ### Final prioritized actions highlighted by mission (succinct) - Enact modern Statistics Law clarifying responsibilities among agencies. - Allocate adequate human and technological resources for migration to 2008 SNA, BPM6, GFSM 2001, and other international standards. - Institutionalize data sharing agreements (CBP, MOF, INCOOP, DGEEC) and establish intersectoral data consistency committee. - Update base year of national accounts (1994) and conduct periodic surveys (HBS, enterprise surveys). - Remove imports from PPI, expand PPI coverage, and regularly update PPI weights and CPI weights (HBS every five years). - Expand monetary statistics coverage to include largest credit unions and compile/disseminate OFC survey. - Prepare comprehensive BPM6 migration plan and obtain currency denomination information for financial assets/liabilities to improve BOP/IIP accuracy. - Adopt GFSM 2001 in MOF with a detailed migration plan and legal assignment of responsibilities and reporting obligations. *Source: APPENDIX TABLES, _cr14248 - APPENDIX TABLES* ### APPENDIX TABLES ### _cr14248 - APPENDIX TABLES ### Overall assessment and scope - Paraguay participates in the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) since September 2001, and metadata are posted on the IMF’s Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB). - The Report updates the February 2006 assessment (based on July 2003 DQAF) using the May 2012 vintage of the DQAF. - Datasets covered: national accounts (NA), consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI), government finance statistics (GFS) and public sector debt statistics, monetary statistics, and balance of payments (BOP) and international investment position (IIP) statistics. - Compilers and disseminators: Central Bank of Paraguay (CBP) for all datasets except GFS (Ministry of Finance, MOF). General Directorate of Statistics, Surveys and Census (DGEEC) is the main national statistical agency for demographic and social statistics (not covered in the Report). ### Key findings — achievements since 2006 ROSC Data Module - Adequate methodological treatment of the two large binational hydroelectrical enterprises to properly reflect their contribution to Paraguay’s GDP, BOP, and other international accounts. - Compilation and dissemination of quarterly national accounts and integrated economic accounts for the total economy up to net lending. - New CPI series (December 2007=100) and PPI series (June 2011=100) with methodological improvements (treatment of seasonal products; improved estimation techniques for missing prices). - Inclusion of credit unions in monetary statistics since end-2008 (these data are not included in domestic publications). - Easier data access through official websites and adoption of advance release calendars for most statistics. ### Key findings — persistent shortcomings - Two GDDS exceptions: - In the financial sector, the depository corporations (DC) survey is compiled monthly with a one-month lag but is not disseminated. - In the external sector, the debt service payment schedules for both public and private external debt are not disseminated. - Human resources: - Minimally adequate at CBP for current programs; insufficient for developmental work related to adoption of new international methodological guidance (2008 SNA and BPM6). - Resources at MOF clearly insufficient to compile comprehensive and timely GFS, especially if migrating to GFSM 2001. - DGEEC lacks autonomy and has insufficient human, financial, and technological resources; censuses and surveys mostly financed by external loans and grants. - Legal/institutional: - Appropriateness of central bank compiling price statistics is a fundamental issue in a country moving towards an inflation targeting regime. - Institutional responsibility for compiling and disseminating GFS by MOF is supported only by an internal MOF provision (under review). - Procedures for data sharing and coordination within MOF and between MOF and other agencies need improvement. - Methodological migration: - Price indices and monetary statistics broadly follow current international standards. - National accounts and BOP broadly follow 1993 SNA and BPM5, respectively. - A program for implementing 2008 SNA and BPM6 is under development. - No migration path to GFSM 2001 has been adopted. - Source data and statistical techniques: - Appropriately treated in monetary statistics and to a lesser extent in price statistics. - Improvements needed in source data for all datasets except monetary statistics. - Improvements needed in statistical techniques for national accounts and to a lesser extent GFS and BOP. - Assessment and validation of intermediate data and outputs generally adequate but could be improved for GFS and monetary statistics. - Interdataset reconciliation: - Publicly available information permits only partial reconciliation across datasets. - Regular reconciliation and closer interagency coordination required to enhance intersectoral consistency. - Metadata and communication: - Metadata posted on national websites not easily available for most datasets. - Metadata posted on IMF’s DSBB had not been updated since November 2004 (note: at time of writing revised GDDS metadata were later posted for all macroeconomic datasets). - Statistical agencies have well established revision policies and practices for most datasets, but these are not communicated to the public. - Assistance to users could be improved (e.g., sector-specific contact information). ### Serviceability and accessibility - Serviceability: - Assessed as broadly satisfactory. - Data are disseminated with the periodicity and timeliness recommended by the GDDS except for the DC survey and total external debt service schedule. - Accessibility: - Improved considerably since 2006 with advance release calendars and a more user-friendly CBP website. - Statistics are released simultaneously to all users. - Remaining accessibility issues: - Metadata not easily accessible. - Need for interactive online database and sector-specific contacts. ### SDDS review — coverage, periodicity, and timeliness issues to address before SDDS subscription - Real sector: - PPI timeliness needs improvement from five weeks to one month after the end of the reference month. - Monthly production indices (IMAE) timeliness needs improvement from nine to six weeks (one month is encouraged). - Fiscal sector: - Annual consolidated general government operations disaggregated by major components should be disseminated within six months after the reference year (quarterly data with a one-quarter lag encouraged). - Quarterly central government debt with a one-month lag (disaggregated by remaining maturity, residency, instrument, and currency). - Improve timeliness for monthly consolidated central government operations from about 75 days (for year-end data) to one month after the reference month. - Financial sector: - Disseminate the depository corporations survey monthly with one-month lag. - Disseminate daily data on short-term and long-term interest rates on government securities. - External sector: - Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity to be disseminated monthly with a one-month lag (one-week lag encouraged). - SDDS encourages dissemination of additional data currently missing for Paraguay: - Real sector: (i) quarterly sectoral balance sheets with a one-quarter lag; (ii) monthly or quarterly forward-looking indicators with a one-month or a one-quarter lag, respectively; periodicity and timeliness for savings and gross national income from annual to quarterly and from a three-quarter to a one-quarter lag, respectively. - Fiscal sector: (i) quarterly general government gross debt at nominal value (disaggregated by debt instrument, currency, and residence of the creditor; memorandum items: general government debt securities and loans by remaining maturity, and debt securities at market value); (ii) debt-service projections for long- and short-term debt with a three-month lag. - Financial sector: (i) monthly disaggregated claims on other residents sector with a one-month lag (broken down by other nonfinancial corporations and households/NPISH). - External sector: (i) quarterly total external debt (by currency, debt service payment schedule, and short-term remaining maturity) with a one-quarter lag; (ii) quarterly BOP and IIP data disaggregated by BPM6 standard components with a one-quarter lag. ### Assessment by agency and dataset (method and presentation) - The mission assessed quality using the May 2012 DQAF and a four-point rating scale. - Prerequisites of data quality and assurances of integrity (Dimensions “0” and “1” of the DQAF) are presented by data-producing agency in Tables 2a–c. - For each dataset, methodological soundness, accuracy and reliability, serviceability, and accessibility (Dimensions “2” to “5”) are presented in Tables 3a–f. - Table 1 summarizes DQAF 2012—Summary Results using the key: O = Practice Observed; LO = Practice Largely Observed; LNO = Practice Largely Not Observed; NO = Practice Not Observed; NA = Not Applicable. ### Users’ survey — methodology and results - Survey conducted with assistance of CBP to complement staff assessment. - Seventy-three targeted users submitted responses for a response rate of 23 percent. - The 2006 ROSC Data Module mission’s survey had 40 targeted users respond. - On a five point scale (1 = poor and 5 = excellent), the average rating for the overall quality of official statistics for all sectors was 3.8. - In the 2006 users’ survey, the overall rating was 3.2. - Key user concerns highlighted: - Need for an interactive online database to select time series and frequency. - Metadata not easily accessible for most datasets. - Outdated base year of national accounts statistics. - Poor measurement of informal sector activity. - Geographical coverage of the CPI should extend beyond the Greater Asunción Area. - GFS should cover the entire public sector rather than only the central government. - Coordination between CBP and MOF should improve, particularly on external debt statistics. - BOP statistics do not capture cross-border trade and capital flows accurately. - Trade data lack good estimates of informal trade. - Data on direct investment abroad is unavailable and direct investment in Paraguay may be underestimated. ### Statistical capacity and integrity - Legal and institutional environment: - CBP’s compilation and dissemination of statistics is based on a legal framework that broadly supports mandatory reporting by the financial sector and confidentiality. - Statutory support for MOF compiling and disseminating GFS is limited to an internal MOF provision (under review). - The Statistical Law of 1942 designates DGEEC as the main statistical agency with coordination responsibility, but the central role has not materialized due to lack of autonomy and resources. - Assurances of integrity: - CBP is a technical institution with administrative and normative autonomy; independent in choice of sources, methods, and dissemination within resource limits. - MOF produces GFS on an impartial basis based on a culture of professional independence. - Terms and conditions for compiling statistics are specified in relevant laws and available to the public for CBP; for MOF the terms and conditions under which GFS are compiled are not publicly known. - Internal rules provide clear staff behavior and administrative guidelines, made known to staff. *Source: APPENDIX TABLES, _cr14248 - APPENDIX TABLES* ### 0.3 Relevance ### _cr14248 - 0.3 Relevance ### Practice observed definitions - Practice observed: Current practices generally meet or achieve the objectives of DQAF internationally accepted statistical practices without any significant deficiencies. - Practice largely observed: Some departures, but these are not seen as sufficient to raise doubts about the authorities’ ability to observe the DQAF practices. - Practice largely not observed: Significant departures and the authorities will need to take significant action to achieve observance. - Practice not observed: Most DQAF practices are not met. - Not applicable: Used only exceptionally when statistical practices do not apply to a country’s circumstances. ### 0. Prerequisites of quality — institutional and resource context (Central Bank of Paraguay, Ministry of Finance, DGEEC) - Central Bank of Paraguay (CBP) - Legal basis: Law 489/95 (Organic Law of the Central Bank of Paraguay) includes: - mandatory data reporting provisions (art. 80); - provisions governing preparation and publication of monetary and financial data, external payments, domestic prices, output and income (art. 82); - secrecy and confidentiality obligations (arts. 6, 7, and 8) and CBP’s Information Security Regulations of 1997. - Noncompliance: law contemplates sanctions and fines for financial institutions and their managers (arts. 94, 95, and 96). - Limitation: Obligation of nonfinancial sector entities to report statistics to the CBP is not well established, affecting quality of BOP and national accounts statistics. - Resources: Staff resources minimally sufficient for ongoing tasks but insufficient for major developmental work (migration to the 2008 SNA and BPM6, required surveys, source data and technique improvements). Units have suffered high turnover. - Relevance/user engagement: Maintains informal contacts with users; no formal mechanisms to consult users about relevance or emerging requirements. - Other quality management: Authorities aware of needs and willing to implement IMF recommendations; statistical functions given low priority in resource allocation; need for systematic processes to focus on data quality. - Institutional integrity and transparency: CBP is technical with administrative and normative autonomy; compilers independent in choice of sources, methods, and dissemination within resource limits. Broad legal terms are public; some internal reports shared with MOF without affecting dissemination cycle. Advance notice given of major methodological changes. - Ethical standards: Information Security Regulation (approved July 1997) and ISO/EIC 27001 information security management system implemented in April 2013. Personnel Statute and Regulation (approved September 1989 and February 1990). Ethic Code approved in 2008. - Ministry of Finance (MOF) - Legal basis: Mandate to compile and disseminate budget execution data by law; no similar clear mandate for government finance statistics (GFS). - Working arrangements: Timely flow of source data internally; data sharing adequate but could be improved with formal mechanisms. - Resources: Staff resources insufficient to compile GFS for general government and public sector to international standards; high turnover; no formal processes to ensure efficient use of resources or measure cost of producing GFS. - Relevance/user engagement: Meets national legislation information requirements and partially meets international organizations; no structured process of consultation with users. - Other quality management: General concern for quality but no formal processes; efforts to improve GFS not systematic. - Institutional integrity and transparency: GFS produced impartially; recruitment/promotions competitive; choice of sources and techniques based on statistical considerations. Terms and conditions for budget execution data are public; those for GFS are not. No prior access to statistics by other government agencies. - Ethical standards: Guidelines and Codes in place — Code of Ethics and Code of Good Governance (2012). - Directorate General of Statistics, Surveys, and Censuses (DGEEC) - Legal basis: Decree Law 11126/42 establishes DGEEC as main statistical agency; Decree 15415/70 establishes ad-hoc statistical council; Decree 11918 (2008) granted budgetary autonomy. Legal obligation to provide requested information and protect confidentiality. - Enforcement limitation: Role not fully enforced due to insufficient institutional and political support. - Resources: Staff 93 permanent and 150 contractual employees; computing/infrastructure/financing not commensurate with statistical program. Major activities (population census) financed by international loans/grants; repeating population census financed with own resources. - Relevance: Focus on demographic and social basic statistics (unemployment, poverty). Last national economic census (2010) and population census (2012) had shortcomings. - Other quality management: Authorities working on adoption of a new National Statistics Law to provide overarching framework. - Institutional integrity and transparency: Technical criteria applied; compilers independent within resource limits; terms and conditions available on DGEEC website. - Ethical standards: Staff behavior guided by Law on Public Servants and DGEEC regulations with disciplinary sanctions. ### 1. Assurances of integrity — specific provisions and practices - CBP legal/institutional provisions for data compilation, publication, secrecy, sanctions (see Law 489/95; arts. 6, 7, 8, 80, 82, 94–96). - CBP personnel and information security frameworks: Information Security Regulations (1997); ISO/EIC 27001 (April 2013); Personnel Statute (September 1989) and Regulation (February 1990); Ethic Code (2008). - MOF Codes: Code of Ethics and Code of Good Governance (2012). - DGEEC legal mandates: Decree Law 11126/42; Decree 15415/70; Decree 11918/2008. ### 2. Methodological soundness — National Accounts, CPI (selected points) - National Accounts (NA) - Concepts and definitions: NA compiled in broad accordance with the 1993 SNA. Program under development to change outdated base year (1994=100) and implement relevant 2008 SNA recommendations. - Scope: Production boundary broadly in line with 1993 SNA; two binational hydroelectrical enterprises recently included following the 2008 SNA. No independent estimates of the non-observed economy after 1997; mineral exploration and own-account production mostly excluded. Annual and quarterly GDP published by production and expenditure approaches (current and constant 1994 prices); annual GDP by income approach. CBP compiles sequence of accounts up to the capital account according to the 1968 SNA. Supply and use tables compiled for 1991-1997 but discontinued. Rest of the world and institutional sector accounts not compiled. - Classification/sectorization: Linked to ISIC Rev. 3 and CPC. COICOP and COFOG not used. Gross fixed capital formation classified by type of asset but not by economic activity. - Basis for recording: Market prices used; most transactions on accrual basis; enterprise-level collection records inter-establishment transactions within enterprise on net basis. - Source data: No comprehensive data collection program; no annual surveys; production and sales information from government offices and some enterprises. New benchmark statistics (population and economic censuses and updated business register) available but not used for NA compilation. Increased access to tax data. Insufficient data for some industrial activities, most services, household consumption, and inventory changes. - Statistical techniques: Excessive use of fixed coefficients for value added and household consumption due to lack of source data; changes in inventories obtained as residuals; supply and use tables discontinued; some sound techniques applied. - Revision policy: Schedule for publication cycle released and followed; preliminary data identified; revisions not systematically analyzed or described beyond press release announcement. - Metadata and dissemination: NA statistics disseminated clearly on CBP website; advance release schedule published; GDDS metadata not updated since 2004; revised national accounts metadata posted on the IMF’s DSBB in March 2014. - Consumer Price Index (CPI) - Concepts and definitions: Largely in accordance with Consumer Price Index Manual 2004. Basket detail sufficient for price analysis. - Scope: CPI measures price change of new basket of 450 products representative of final consumption of urban households of the Greater Asunción Area. CPI weights include own-account production and goods received as salary in kind. Imputed value of owner-occupied housing excluded. - Classification/sectorization: COICOP appropriately used. - Basis for recording: Market prices including taxes; defective products and discriminatory reductions not collected; weights for vehicles in secondary markets based on net purchases principle. - Source data: Basket and weights from the 2005-2006 Household Budget Survey; weights should be updated at least every five years. Prices collected monthly in sufficiently large sample; periodicity and timeliness in line with best practices. - Statistical techniques: Uses internationally accepted formulas at aggregate levels. Imputation methods for missing products and quality adjustments follow recommended practices. - Assessment and validation: CPI by product validated against comparable PPI series. Compilation software produces outlier reports for investigation and correction. Sampling errors not routinely quantified. - Revision policy: CPI data considered definitive and not subject to revisions. Weight updates are irregular and infrequent. Weight revisions are not periodically analyzed for substitution bias effects. - Periodicity and timeliness: CPI compiled monthly and disseminated within one week after the end of the reference month; meets GDDS recommendations. - Consistency and historical series: Consistent monthly CPI series starting in December 1994 available on CBP website; two-digit COICOP division indexes provided. - Metadata and assistance: Methodology of current CPI available on CBP website; GDDS metadata not updated since 2004; revised CPI metadata posted on the IMF’s DSBB in March 2014. CBP website offers CPI publications and educational material (BCP Educa) but CPI publications do not identify contact points for specific enquiries. ### 3. Accuracy and reliability — quality control and validation practices - National Accounts - Assessment of source data: Accuracy assessed against available information during revision cycle. - Assessment/validation of intermediate data and outputs: Intermediate data and outputs cross-checked and validated against related information. - Revision studies: Revisions carried out on an ad-hoc basis and documented for users; no systematic revision studies. - CPI - Assessment of source data: CPI processing includes procedures to detect outliers; abnormal price variations subject to confirmation (not automatic deletion). - Assessment/validation of intermediate data and outputs: CPI product-level validation against PPI; compilation software flags outliers for investigation. - Revision studies: Weight revisions not periodically analyzed to investigate substitution bias. ### 4. Serviceability — periodicity, timeliness, consistency, revision practice - National Accounts - Periodicity and timeliness: Annual and quarterly GDP meet GDDS recommendations. - Consistency: Consistent GDP estimates across approaches achieved by deriving some components residually; benchmarking used for temporal consistency. Minor discrepancies with GFS and BOP due to sectorization differences (employer social insurance schemes classified differently). - Revision policy: Publication schedule released and followed; preliminary data identified; revisions not systematically analyzed. - CPI - Periodicity and timeliness: Compiled monthly; disseminated within one week after reference month; meets GDDS recommendations. - Consistency: Inflation results identical regardless of aggregation order; consistent monthly CPI series from December 1994 available. - Revision policy: Data considered definitive and not revised; weight updates irregular. ### 5. Accessibility — dissemination, metadata, user assistance - National Accounts - Data accessibility: NA statistics disseminated in clear and detailed manner and easily accessed on CBP website; advance release schedule published; simultaneous access to all users; non-disseminated statistics provided on request subject to availability and confidentiality. - Metadata accessibility: Metadata disseminated through technical notes; varying levels of detail; GDDS metadata not updated since 2004; revised NA metadata posted on IMF’s DSBB in March 2014. - Assistance to users: Effective assistance on request; no specific contact point for NA (general CBP contact provided); assistance not monitored; NA publications and papers available free of charge. - CPI - Data accessibility: CPI results presented monthly via press release and Informe de Inflación with tables, figures, and detailed analysis; advance release calendar available on CBP website. - Metadata accessibility: Methodology available on CBP website; GDDS metadata not updated since 2004; revised CPI metadata posted on IMF’s DSBB in March 2014. - Assistance to users: CBP website offers publications and educational materials (BCP Educa); CPI publications do not identify specific contact points for enquiries. *Source: _cr14248 - 0.3 Relevance (IMF mission assessment content provided in the source PDF).* ### 2. Methodological soundness ### _cr14248 - 2. Methodological soundness ### Producer Price Index (PPI) — Concepts, scope, sources, and methods - Concepts and definitions - The concepts and definitions used in the PPI are largely in accordance with the 1993 SNA. - Following the 2004 PPI Manual, the PPI should represent the total value of domestic production including exports; however, exports are excluded from the PPI. Conversely, import prices should be excluded from the composition of the PPI, as they do not represent domestic production. - Scope - The PPI covers the output produced by resident enterprises in the agriculture, forestry and fishing, mining and quarrying, and manufacturing activities. - The PPI does not cover relevant domestic activities (e.g., electricity and water supply, construction, and other services). - Classification/sectorization - Classifications applied in PPI production follow international standards. - Economic activities and products are classified using the ISIC Rev.3 classification and the CPC, respectively. - Basis for recording - The market output of domestically produced goods is appropriately valued at producer’s prices. - Source data and assessment - PPI weights are derived using information from supply and use tables, complemented with administrative records from the MOF and other sources. - Available data do not allow for a comprehensive coverage of produced output. - The periodicity and timeliness of source data is in line with international standards. - Statistical techniques and quality control - Prices data are filtered to minimize coding and editing errors and to identify outlying price observations. Sampling errors are not routinely quantified. - The PPI uses internationally accepted formulas both at higher and lower aggregate levels. - Prices of missing products are adequately imputed using price movements of different varieties of the same product or, if the number of available observations is low, of different product varieties within the same group of the missing product. - Quality adjustments are made using recommended international practices. - Validation, revisions, periodicity, consistency, and accessibility - Intermediate CPI prices data are validated using comparable PPI information. - The update of PPI weights is not carried out on a regular basis. - The PPI meets the GDDS recommendations. It is compiled monthly and disseminated within five weeks after the end of the reference month. - PPI results are invariant to the order of aggregation used in its compilation. A consistent monthly PPI series starting in December 1995 is available on the CBP website. - PPI data are considered final after being produced. The impact of major revisions (e.g., weight and basket updates) are carried out without a predetermined calendar. - The PPI is disseminated together with the CPI. An analysis of the behavior of the PPI is available in a separate section of a monthly economic report (Informe Económico), which is posted on the CBP website. An advance release calendar for the PPI is available on the CBP website. - The methodology of the current PPI is available on the CBP website and includes historical information on the previous series. GDDS metadata had not been updated since 2004. Revised PPI metadata were posted on the DSBB in March 2014. - Publications with PPI data are posted on the CBP website. They do not identify a specific contact point were enquiries on this indicator could be made. ### Government Finance Statistics (GFS) — Concepts, coverage, and data practices - Concepts and definitions - GFS compilation and dissemination practices are based on the GFSM 1986 and not the GFSM 2001 methodology, and no migration path has been adopted. - Compilation of debt data is partially based on the Public Sector Debt Statistics: Guide for Compilers and Users (PSDSG) guidelines. - Scope and classification - GFS cover only budgetary central government. Data for other levels of government are available, but not disseminated. - There are no data for other economic flows or balances and only partial data for stocks (including debt). - Classification of flows and stocks does not follow GFSM 2001. Definition of the social security and nonfinancial public corporations subsectors is not in accordance with international definitions. - Classification of debt follows partially the guidelines of the PSDSG. - Basis for recording and source data - Not all flows and stocks are valued on a market basis. Recording is done on a mixed cash and commitment basis. There are no arrangements to convert to accrual basis. - Data for most public units are comprehensive and timely. Most public sector units report online to the integrated financial management system. However, data are not available for all flows and stocks recommended by GFSM 2001 and PSDSG. - Assessment, techniques, validation, and revisions - Source data are not regularly assessed against other related data sources. - Some data are still entered manually to compile GFS. Compilation procedures are not fully documented. - Bridge tables are used to report GFS in GFSM 2001 format for the IMF’s GFS Yearbook. - Intermediate results and intermediate data should be more fully validated against other data sources. Statistical outputs should be compared on a regular basis among national compilers. - No formal studies of data revisions are conducted, and adequate documentation on revisions is not maintained. - Periodicity, consistency, accessibility, metadata, and assistance - Data on central government operations and central government debt meet GDDS recommendations. - The overall surplus/deficit and financing are not consistent. GFS are consistent over time, but are not reconciled with other macroeconomic datasets on a regular basis. - Revision cycle (replacement of preliminary data by final data) follows a regular schedule, but is not explicitly made known to the public. Preliminary data are clearly identified. - GFS are not disseminated according to standard GFSM 2001 and PSDSG 2011 components and no commentaries on current period developments are provided. - GFS are not disseminated in user friendly formats, and no access to GFS through an electronic database is provided. GFS are not released according to a preannounced schedule. GFS are made available to all users simultaneously. - Availability of additional statistics and the procedures to obtain them are not made known to the public. - No metadata are available on the MOF website, and there is no link to the GDDS metadata posted on the IMF’s DSBB. The GDDS metadata were last updated in 2004. - A contact point for the Under-Secretariat of Economy is provided (in the form of an e-mail address for enquiries), but there is no specific contact point for GFS. There is no single list of MOF publications; users have to search by Under-Secretariat and Directorate. ### Monetary statistics — Methodology, coverage, and data practices - Concepts and definitions and scope - Monetary statistics are consistent with the MFSM and the MFSCG following MFS missions after the 2006 ROSC Data Module. - The DC survey covers the CBP, the 16 commercial banks, and the 11 finance companies. Credit unions are not yet included in the monetary statistics published by the CBP. - The CBP does not compile the other financial corporations (OFC) survey. - Classification and basis for recording - Classification and sectorization of financial instruments follow the MFSM, with two exceptions: (i) no breakdown between other nonfinancial corporations and households/NPISHs, and (ii) nonsectorization of accrued interest by other depository corporations (ODC). - The DC survey is produced on an accrual basis, which is consistent with the MFSM. Financial instruments are recorded at market value. - Source data and assessment - The DC survey is based on the consolidated balance sheets of the CBP, commercial banks, and finance companies. Commercial banks and finance companies report to the Bank Superintendence (SB), which electronically transmits the aggregated data to the Monetary Studies Division (DEM). - ODC reporting is based on a common chart of accounts introduced in 1995, which follows international accounting standards. Source data were improved along the recommendations of several MFS missions. - Statistical techniques, validation, revisions, periodicity, and consistency - Sound statistical techniques are used. Monetary data are based on the balance sheets of the CBP and ODC. The CBP does not use other secondary sources. - Verifications are performed only when inconsistencies are observed. Because of lack of disaggregated data, the DEM does not check the consistency of the interbank position, nor of the domestic public debt. - Data consistency checks are performed for international reserves and net foreign assets against BOP statistics. - The CBP does not have a policy of regular revision studies to monitor monetary statistics. Improvements have been introduced in response to requests by users. - Monetary aggregates and central bank data meet GDDS recommendations. However, although compiled on a monthly basis, the DC survey is not disseminated as recommended by the GDDS. - Monetary data published by the CBP are released in consistent historical series. Aggregate ODC data are consistent with CBP’s accounting records. Monetary data are consistent with international reserves data, but not with banking positions in the IIP. - Most inconsistencies with central government debt data were eliminated when the government debt with the CBP was consolidated in a perpetual bond. - The CBP does not have a regular revision schedule and does not perform revision studies. Notes in the tables inform when data are revised because of mistakes, but do not explain the reasons for the revision. - Data and metadata accessibility and assistance - Data are presented in an aggregated form with detailed explanatory notes. - There are no preannounced release calendars, but monetary data are regularly posted on the CBP website by the 25th of the following month, and central bank data on the 10th of the following month. - Paraguay has posted its monetary metadata on the IMF’s DSSB, but metadata were not updated since November 2004. At the time of the mission, the CBP sent revised MFS metadata, which were posted on the DSBB in March 2014. The CBP website provides a link to the DSBB. - Methodological notes accompany the tables published in Informe Económico. - Information on a contact person/point for monetary statistics is not available on the CBP website. All data are available online in an Excel format. The CBP website has a window encouraging users to send requests and comments, but this is not specific for statistics. ### Balance of Payments (BOP) and International Investment Position (IIP) — Coverage, methods, and quality - Concepts and definitions and implementation status - External sector statistics follow the guidelines of BPM5, and there is no formal plan to implement BPM6. - Since 2012, the two binational hydroelectrical enterprises are considered 50 percent residents in Paraguay, in line with the methodology of BPM6. - Scope, classification, and basis for recording - The scope of the BOP and IIP is broadly consistent with BPM6. Most resident-nonresident transactions and positions are covered. - In recent years, the response rate of the surveys to the nonfinancial private sector has decreased. - There is a project to collect data on direct investment in real estate. - Classification and sectorization systems are in line with BPM5. Data by sector are not disseminated for most BOP and IIP components. - Imports and exports of the maquila sector are included in goods for processing. - Data are mostly valued at market prices, except for some items such as portfolio investment. Interest on public sector debt is not recorded on an accrual basis. - Grossing/netting procedures are broadly consistent with BPM6. - Source data, assessment, and techniques - Main data sources include administrative records, direct reporting from private enterprises, and surveys mainly for direct investment. - Coverage of services and financial assets and liabilities of the nonfinancial private sector is not sufficient. Source data are timely. - Source data are analyzed for underreporting to check temporal consistency and consistency with related data sources. - The CBP estimates unrecorded trade, smuggling, travel, and transport. Some compilation procedures need to be updated. - Validation, revisions, periodicity, and consistency - Survey data are regularly validated against balance sheets of the nonfinancial private enterprises and customs data against the Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS). - External trade data are reconciled with partner countries within MERCOSUR. - Regular revision studies are not conducted. The CBP analyzed the data revision when data from the binational hydroelectrical enterprises were incorporated to external sector statistics. - Periodicity and timeliness of BOP and IIP data meet the GDDS recommendations. Quarterly data are disseminated with at three-month lag. External debt position data are also disseminated quarterly. - BOP and IIP data are consistent. A reconciliation table is disseminated regularly on the CBP website. - The item net errors and omissions is relatively unstable over time. There are inconsistencies between the income account and the IIP. The banking sector positions in the IIP are not consistent with MFS. - There are discrepancies with government external debt data disseminated in the World Bank’s Quarterly External Debt Statistics (QEDS) database, because those data include the central administration debt only. - The revision cycle is predetermined; data are preliminary during eight quarters. Users are informed whenever data are preliminary. - Accessibility, metadata, and assistance - BOP and IIP statistics are disseminated on the CBP website according to BPM5. Data are disseminated in a clear manner providing time series of sufficient length. Data are released to all users at the same time. These statistics are released punctually following a schedule announced in advance. - BOP and IIP metadata (although not comprehensive) are published in the CBP’s monthly economic bulletin. GDDS metadata need to be updated. Revised external sector statistics metadata were posted on the DSBB in April 2014. - Prompt and knowledgeable service and support are available to users of statistics. Contact points are available but not easily accessible. ### Staff's recommendations — Cross-cutting and sectoral priorities - Cross-cutting recommendations (High Priority) - Give higher priority to statistical functions and promote the adoption of a modern Statistics Law that clearly assigns responsibilities among data-producing agencies. - Provide adequate staff resources and other resources to assure the timely and sustainable compilation and dissemination of statistics in accordance with current international standards. - Improve and institutionalize data sharing and overall coordination between the different agencies collecting source data needed for macroeconomic statistics. - Establish regular mechanisms for enhancing intersectoral data consistency. - Other key cross-cutting recommendations - Update and maintain current the metadata available in national publications as well as the GDDS metadata posted on the IMF’s DSBB. - Develop a medium-term plan to subscribe to the SDDS by 2017. - Further enhance data and metadata accessibility of all datasets, including adequate formats for data dissemination and sector-specific contact information on the CBP and MOF websites. - Strengthen data revision policies and practices and make them known to the public. - National Accounts (High Priority) - Update the 1994 base year of the national accounts to obtain an accurate and comprehensive portrait of the current economic situation. - Develop a plan for implementing the 2008 SNA as soon as possible, with a clear timetable and activities, detailing the tasks to meet new requirements, such as updating classifications and sectorization. - Develop and implement a program for conducting periodic economic surveys covering manufacture, services, and other relevant activities. - Maintain a regularly updated business register. - National Accounts (Other key recommendations) - Use available data on prices and values of main inputs and outputs to apply the double deflation/inflation method on an annual basis. - Expand the coverage of the sample used for collecting tax data from the MOF to improve source data for the national accounts. - Improve the timeliness of the quarterly national accounts and of the monthly index of economic activity to take full advantage of their potential as inputs for policy-making decisions. - Compile supply and use tables in order to improve the consistency of national accounts estimates, with particular attention on estimates of non-observed activities, household final consumption expenditure, and changes in inventories. - Assess the use of chain-linked indices for improving volume measures of the national accounts. - Consumer Price Index (High Priority) - Conduct a new Household Budget Survey to update CPI weights. - Consumer Price Index (Other key recommendation) - Conduct a study in order to investigate whether the inclusion of prices collected in areas not currently covered by the CPI will impact significantly on official inflation rates. - Producer Price Index (High Priority) - Remove imports from PPI scope, in line with new international methodological standards. - Producer Price Index (Other key recommendations) - Expand gradually the scope of the PPI to include, at first, exports and electricity and water supply and, at a second stage, construction and services. - Seek expert advice and promote staff training on PPI methodology. - Government Finance Statistics (High Priority) - Assign immediately the responsibility for compiling and disseminating GFS to a specific unit of the MOF. - Assign by Law to the MOF the responsibility for compiling and disseminating GFS, including the obligation of public units to provide the necessary information and penalties for non-reporting. - Adopt the methodology of the GFSM 2001 and PSDSG to compile and disseminate GFS, and to that effect prepare a detailed migration plan and timetable. - Define for statistical purposes the institutional structure of the general government sector and public sector in accordance with international standards. - Government Finance Statistics (Other key recommendations) - Compile GFS for the general government sector on a regular basis and disseminate on MOF website. - Disseminate the GFS currently compiled for levels of government broader than budgetary central government. - Disseminate detailed metadata for GFS on the MOF website. Update GDDS metadata. - Assign adequate human resources to compiling and disseminating GFS to the extent possible. - Monetary Statistics (High Priority) - Expand the coverage of the ODC survey with the inclusion of the largest credit unions, which account for 15 percent of the deposits of the system. - Sign a formal agreement with the National Institute of Cooperatives (INCOOP) to establish regular submission of credit union data from the INCOOP to the CBP and to address other data sharing issues. - Disseminate the DC and the ODC surveys compiled by the CBP. - Monetary Statistics (Other key recommendations) - Compile and disseminate the OFC survey covering data of insurance corporations and other relevant financial intermediaries. - Improve the procedures for data cross-checking with GFS and BOP statistics. - Break up the accounts of other nonfinancial corporations from those of households and NPISHs. To this end, the chart of accounts of commercial banks and finance companies would need to be modified to reflect the necessary changes. - Balance of Payments Statistics (High priority) - Develop a comprehensive plan to migrate the BOP and IIP statistics to BPM6, identifying actions and key target dates. - Supplement direct investment survey data with the information collected from the balance sheets and income statements to cover nonresponse. Prepare and maintain a register of direct investment enterprises in Paraguay. - Improve the adjustments in the estimation of data on foreign trade, revising the process to estimate goods leaving commercial free zones (“re-exports”) based on data provided by the Directorate General of Customs. - Balance of Payments Statistics (Other key recommendations) - Conduct regular meetings (at least twice a year) with the MOF, to discuss issues of common interest, coordinate the submission of quarterly external debt data to the World Bank (QEDS), and ensure the consistency of fiscal and external sector statistics. - Disseminate BOP and IIP statistics with sectoral breakdown, in accordance with international standards. - Obtain information of the currency of denomination of financial assets and liabilities in order to improve treatment of exchange rate changes when BOP transactions are estimated from positions data. *Source: _cr14248 - 2. Methodological soundness.* ### Appendix I. Practices Compared to the GDDS Coverage, Periodicity, and Timeliness of Data ### Appendix I. Practices Compared to the GDDS Coverage, Periodicity, and Timeliness of Data ### GDDS compliance and dataset status (high-level) - Coverage status (selected datasets): - GDP (nominal and real), Gross national income, capital formation, savings: Yes (meets GDDS). - Production index/indices (IMAE): Yes (meets GDDS). Note: Monthly economic activity index (IMAE) footnote. - Consumer price index (CPI): Yes (meets GDDS). Geographical coverage restricted to the Greater Asunción Area. - Producer price index (PPI): Yes (meets GDDS). Coverage of the economy is not complete (e.g., electricity production is not covered). - Labor market indicators (Employment, Unemployment, Wages/earnings): Yes (all meet GDDS). - Central government budgetary aggregates and interest payments: Yes (meets GDDS). - Central government debt and government-guaranteed debt: Yes (meets GDDS). - Depository corporations survey — Broad money, Narrow monetary aggregates (M1/M2): Mixed (some meet GDDS; domestic claims and net foreign assets listed as No). - Central bank monetary base: Yes (meets GDDS). - Interest rates (short- and long-term government security rates, policy-oriented rates, money market rates, deposit and lending rates): Yes (meets GDDS). Footnote: Government security rates are not disseminated. - Stock market — Share price index: Dissemination noted as monthly (M) but partial/ellipsis in table. - Balance of payments aggregates (BPM6 components): Yes (coverage) for GDDS but Paraguay marked No for comprehensive coverage of financial account (e.g., derivatives) and some disaggregation. - Public and publicly guaranteed external debt (outstanding, by instrument, by maturity): Yes. - Public and publicly guaranteed external debt-service schedule (principal and interest): No (not disseminated). - Private external debt outstanding not publicly guaranteed: Yes; private external debt service schedule not publicly guaranteed: No. - Official reserve assets: Gross official reserves assets — Yes; reserve-related liabilities, Template on international reserves and foreign currency liquidity — No. - Merchandise trade (total exports and imports): Yes. - International Investment Position: Assets and liabilities disaggregated by functional/BPM6 components — Yes for coverage; but full BPM6-disaggregated IIP presented as No for Paraguay. - Exchange rates (spot rates): Yes (meets GDDS). - Timeliness and periodicity examples (as reported under GDDS vs Paraguay): - GDP: GDDS periodicity A (annual) and Q (quarterly); Paraguay periodicity A, Q. GDDS timeliness 6–9M; Paraguay timeliness A (9M), Q (3M) and A (9M). - IMAE (Production index): GDDS periodicity M (as relevant); Paraguay M. GDDS timeliness 6–12W; Paraguay timeliness 9W. - CPI and PPI: GDDS periodicity M; Paraguay M. GDDS timeliness 1–2M; Paraguay timeliness CPI 1 W, PPI 5 W. - Labor market indicators: GDDS periodicity A; Paraguay A, Q. GDDS timeliness 6–9M; Paraguay timeliness A (9M), Q (3M). - Central government budget aggregates: GDDS periodicity Q (M); Paraguay Q (M). GDDS timeliness M; Paraguay M. Specific monthly timeliness entry: 1M (75D in December) for Paraguay. - Central government debt: GDDS periodicity Q; Paraguay Q. GDDS timeliness M; Paraguay M. Timeliness examples: 1–2Q (GDDS) and 1–2Q (Paraguay); monthly timeliness 1M in Paraguay. - Depository corporations survey: GDDS periodicity M; Paraguay M for some aggregates and No for others. GDDS timeliness 1–3M; Paraguay timeliness 25D for some aggregates, 25D for others. - Central bank monetary base: GDDS periodicity M; Paraguay M. GDDS timeliness 1–2M; Paraguay timeliness 10D. - Interest rates: GDDS periodicity M or D; Paraguay D and M. GDDS timeliness 6 (footnote referencing high-frequency publication) and 2D; Paraguay timeliness 1M. - Balance of payments aggregates: GDDS periodicity A (Q) and A (Q); Paraguay marked No for full coverage. GDDS timeliness 6M; Paraguay timeliness 6M (for several components) and 3M for Q. - Public external debt outstanding and instrument breakdown: GDDS periodicity Q; Paraguay Q. GDDS timeliness 3–6M; Paraguay timeliness 3M. - Public and publicly guaranteed external debt-service schedule: GDDS periodicity Semiannual; Paraguay marked No with timeliness 1–2Q. - Official reserves assets / international reserves template: GDDS periodicity M and W; Paraguay periodicity M (with template noted as W). GDDS timeliness 1–4W; Paraguay timeliness 1–4W and 1–3M (1M) and 1W. - Merchandise trade: GDDS periodicity M; Paraguay M. GDDS timeliness 8–12W; Paraguay timeliness 4W. - IIP: GDDS periodicity A and Q; Paraguay A and Q. GDDS timeliness 6–9M; Paraguay timeliness 3M for Q. - Exchange rates (spot): GDDS periodicity D; Paraguay D. GDDS timeliness 6; Paraguay timeliness 1WD. (Note: footnotes in the table) - Footnote 1: Monthly economic activity index (IMAE). - Footnote 2: Geographical coverage restricted to the Greater Asunción Area. - Footnote 3: Coverage of the economy is not complete (e.g., electricity production is not covered). - Footnote 4: The CBP compiles but does not disseminate a DC survey. - Footnote 5: Government security rates are not disseminated. - Footnote 6: Dissemination as part of a high-frequency (e.g., monthly) publication. ### Cross-cutting recommendations and authorities’ response (CBP and MOF) - High-priority cross-cutting recommendations (authorities’ commitments): - Give higher priority to statistical functions and promote adoption of a modern Statistics Law clarifying responsibilities among data-producing agencies; CBP will brief the Economic Team on necessity and importance. - Provide adequate staff resources and other resources to assure timely and sustainable compilation and dissemination of statistics in accordance with current international standards; recruitment and training of new human resources and procurement of advanced technological equipment will be promoted based on available budget resources. - Improve and institutionalize data sharing and overall coordination between agencies (CBP, MOF, INCOOP, DGEEC); cooperation agreements will be entered into. - Establish regular mechanisms for enhancing intersectoral data consistency; an intersectoral data consistency committee will be organized reflecting the new CBP structure. - Other key cross-cutting recommendations (authorities’ actions/plans): - Update and maintain GDDS metadata; CBP updated GDDS metadata shortly after the ROSC mission, to be posted on the CBP website in Spanish and English. - Develop a medium-term plan to subscribe to the SDDS by 2017; progress includes: - Real sector: shorten timeliness of monthly PPI and monthly production indexes (CBP shortened release dates; inter-institutional agreements planned to secure timely source data). - Financial sector: publish monthly survey of depository corporations (since May 2014 monetary survey published in Statistical Annex covering banking system; plan to augment with Type A cooperatives after agreement with INCOOP). - External sector: monthly dissemination of the international reserves and foreign currency liquidity template with a one-month lag (template completed and in internal approval; draft to be sent to IMF Statistics Department). - Enhance data and metadata accessibility (CBP working on interactive online database; metadata to be posted in Spanish and English; sector-specific contact points being assessed). - Strengthen data revision policies and practices and publish them on CBP website. ### National accounts — findings and response actions (CBP) - High-priority recommendations and CBP actions: - Update 1994 base year of national accounts to obtain accurate portrait of current economy: - Since end-2013 CBP is updating base year focused on supply and use tables and expanding system to integrated economic accounts guided by 2008 SNA. - Program includes increasing human resources; CBP recently hired new employees for National Accounts Division. - Develop a plan for implementing the 2008 SNA with a clear timetable: - A timetable was developed detailing activities for next 2 ½ years. - Progress on updating classifications for economic activities, products, and institutional sectors. - IMF technical assistance will be required for implementation. - Develop and implement periodic economic surveys covering manufacture, services, and other relevant activities as part of base-year update program. - Maintain a regularly updated business register: - CBP will use DIRGE (prepared by DGEEC with 2011 National Economic Census) and MOF-provided register (sales reports and balance sheets identified by RUC) and correlate them by RUC for the base-year update and ongoing monitoring. - Other key national accounts recommendations and actions: - Apply double deflation/inflation method on annual basis using available input/output price/value data — to be implemented as part of base-year update. - Expand coverage of tax-data sample from MOF to improve source data — CBP working on update/expansion of MOF business register based on 2012 and 2013 data, to be combined with DIRGE. - Improve timeliness of quarterly national accounts and monthly IMAE — CBP shortened release time for IMAE and plans inter-institutional agreements to secure timely submission of basic data. - Compile supply and use tables annually to improve consistency, with attention to non-observed activities, household final consumption expenditure, and changes in inventories — to be implemented in base-year update. - Assess use of chain-linked indices for improving volume measures — to be implemented as part of base-year update. ### Consumer Price Index (CPI) — recommendations and actions - High-priority: - Conduct a new Household Budget Survey (HBS) to update CPI weights: - CBP will plan next HBS jointly with DGEEC to update CPI weights, consider expanding CPI coverage to country's largest cities and introduce other methodological improvements suggested by ROSC mission. - Other key recommendation: - Conduct a study to investigate whether inclusion of prices from currently uncovered areas would significantly impact official inflation rates: - Recommendation will be considered in CPI update program; consider comparative studies of price growth between current coverage area and largest cities. ### Producer Price Index (PPI) — recommendations and actions - High-priority: - Remove imports from PPI scope to align with international methodological standards (2004 PPI manual): - Imported products will be removed; the PPI of domestic products will be renamed as the PPI; the previous general index will be renamed as a wholesale price index. - Users will be informed of proposed changes before implementation. - Other key recommendations (listed in source beyond excerpt): to be implemented consistent with PPI methodological changes. ### Monetary and financial statistics — status and actions - Depository corporations and central bank surveys: - CBP compiles but did not historically disseminate a full DC survey; since May 2014 the monetary survey has been published in the Statistical Annex covering the banking system. - Plan to augment monetary survey with data on “Type A” cooperatives once agreement with INCOOP is signed. - Timeliness improvements and dissemination: - Monetary aggregates timeliness reported as 25D for some series in Paraguay. - Central bank monetary base timeliness reported as 10D for Paraguay. - Interest rates and market data: - Government security rates are not disseminated (footnote). - Interest rate series dissemination occurs as part of high-frequency publications. ### External sector and public debt — coverage, timeliness, and planned improvements - Balance of payments and IIP: - GDDS requires comprehensive BOP components and BPM6 disaggregation; Paraguay reported limited coverage for financial derivatives and certain BPM6 components. - Timeliness: GDDS timeliness typically 6M for many external aggregates; Paraguay reported 6M or 3M for some series (e.g., Q at 3M). - Public and publicly guaranteed external debt: - Outstanding, by instrument, and maturity: Paraguay reports Q periodicity with 3M timeliness for some tables; public debt-service schedule (principal and interest) is not disseminated. - Private external debt: - Private external debt outstanding not publicly guaranteed: Yes; private external debt service schedule not publicly guaranteed: No. - Official reserves and reserves template: - Gross official reserves assets: Yes; reserve-related liabilities and reserves template: not fully disseminated. - Template on international reserves and foreign currency liquidity has been completed and is in internal approval; draft to be sent to IMF. - Timeliness for reserves reporting includes 1–4W and 1W entries for Paraguay in table. ### Institutional improvements, data sharing, and SDDS subscription plan - Inter-institutional agreements and data sharing: - CBP plans to sign cooperation agreements with MOF, INCOOP, and DGEEC to secure timely submission of basic statistics for national accounts, monetary statistics, and other macroeconomic datasets. - An intersectoral data consistency committee will be established. - Metadata, accessibility, and revision policies: - GDDS metadata updated and to be posted on CBP website in Spanish and English. - CBP working on interactive online database to facilitate selection of time series and frequency. - Data revision policies and practices will be published on CBP website and updated as necessary. - SDDS subscription target: - Develop a medium-term plan to subscribe to the SDDS by 2017; progress already noted in improving timeliness and preparing templates. *Source: _cr14248 - Appendix I. Practices Compared to the GDDS Coverage, Periodicity, and Timeliness of Data* ### 21. Expand gradually the scope of the PPI to include, at first, exports and electricity and ### _cr14248 - 21. Expand gradually the scope of the PPI to include, at first, exports and electricity and ### Producer Price Index (PPI) - Recommendation: Expand gradually the scope of the PPI to include, at first, exports and electricity and water supply and, at a second stage, construction and services. - Implementation: This methodological recommendation will be considered in the PPI update program. - Capacity building: Seek expert advice and promote staff training on PPI methodology. - The CBP has requested technical advice to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a comprehensive revision of the PPI, chiefly for the purpose of aligning it to the international standards. - Expected benefit: An improved PPI will also contribute to improvement of the estimates of the national accounts in Paraguay. ### Monetary Statistics (High Priority) - Coverage expansion: - Expand the coverage of the other depository corporations (ODC) survey with the inclusion of the largest credit unions, which account for 15 percent of the deposits of the system. - To attain this objective, the CBP intends to sign an agreement with INCOOP to obtain and include the data on “Type A” cooperatives (i.e., the largest ones) in the monetary survey. - Institutional arrangements: - Sign a formal agreement with the National Institute of Cooperatives (INCOOP) to establish regular submission of credit union data from the INCOOP to the CBP and to address other data sharing issues. - The CBP intends to sign an agreement with INCOOP to ensure the regular and timely submission of data. - Dissemination: - Disseminate the depository corporations and the ODC surveys compiled by the CBP. - Starting May 2014, the monetary survey will be published in the Statistical Annex of the CBP’s Monthly Economic Report, which will cover the banking system and other financial institutions. - Once an agreement is signed with INCOOP to ensure the regular and timely submission of data, the monetary survey will be augmented with the data on “Type A” cooperatives. ### Monetary Statistics — Other key recommendations - Compile and disseminate the other financial corporations (OFC) survey covering data of insurance corporations and other relevant financial intermediaries. - Necessary steps: compile the consolidated accounts of insurance corporations for inclusion in the OFC survey. - Resource implication: allocate human resources to work with data obtained from the Superintendency of Insurance. - Improve procedures for data cross-checking with GFS and BOP statistics. - Financial system data compiled for monetary statistics will be periodically reconciled with balance of payments (BOP) and international investment position (IIP) data for the resident banking system, as well as with the MOF’s government finance statistics (GFS). - Institutional accounting separation: - Break up the accounts of other nonfinancial corporations from those of households and NPISH. - Action required: modify the chart of accounts of commercial banks and finance companies to reflect separation of other nonfinancial corporations into households and nonprofit institutions serving households (NPISH). - Timing: This recommendation will be taken into account when the Superintendency of Banks decides to make a change in the plan of accounts for financial institutions. ### Balance of Payments Statistics (High priority) - BPM6 migration: - Develop a comprehensive plan to migrate the balance of payments and IIP statistics to BPM6, identifying actions and key target dates. - Working procedures are being developed to complete the implementation of the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6) in 2014. - Technical assistance from the IMF has been requested to ensure attainment of the objective. - Timeline: The CBP intends to finalize the current account in July, while the financial account will be completed in November of this year. - Publication: The BPM6 version of the balance of payments and IIP is intended for publication in the 2014 Preliminary Economic Report of the CBP. - Communication: The CBP will publish a technical note explaining the BPM6 migration process to inform the general public. - Direct investment data: - Supplement direct investment survey data with information collected from balance sheets and income statements to cover no response. - Prepare and maintain a register of direct investment enterprises in Paraguay. - Institutional cooperation: Joint efforts with the Tax Authority on use of data submitted for tax purposes by businesses; an inter-institutional agreement is expected. - Constraints: Continuous processes of monitoring and improving foreign investment data collection are under way, subject to available technical personnel and the legal framework for statistical compilation. - Foreign trade adjustments: - Improve adjustments in estimation of data on foreign trade, revising the process to estimate goods leaving commercial free zones (“re-exports”) based on data provided by the Directorate General of Customs. - Joint efforts with the National Customs Directorate to use administrative records of import data subject to the tourism regime. - Expected change: The current estimation system based on potential consumption is expected to be replaced by administrative records in 2014, in conjunction with the implementation of BPM6. - Note: Use of the new data series is subject to inter-sectoral coordination with other statistics-producing agencies of the CBP. ### Balance of Payments — Other key recommendations - Inter-institutional coordination: - Conduct regular meetings (at least twice a year) with the MOF to discuss issues of common interest, coordinate the submission of external debt data to the World Bank (QEDS), and ensure consistency of fiscal and external sector statistics. - Status: Regular meetings have been initiated with officials of the Directorate of Public Credit and the Debt Directorate of the MOF for assigning dissemination functions. - Responsibilities: The MOF is responsible for publishing data on the external debt of the National Treasury, based on UNCTAD’s Debt Management and Financial System (SIGADE), which is currently sent to the World Bank databases. - The CBP is responsible for compiling and disseminating total external debt using data provided by the Directorate of Public Credit regarding the National Treasury, as well as other sources, to compile total external debt. - Joint action: The CBP and the MOF will take necessary steps to assure consistency of fiscal and external sector statistics, including external debt and IIP data. - Dissemination detail: - Disseminate balance of payments and IIP statistics with sectoral breakdown, in accordance with international standards. - Publication of the institutional breakdown of data is part of the migration from BPM5 to BPM6 planned for this year. *Source: _cr14248 - 21. Expand gradually the scope of the PPI to include, at first, exports and electricity and* ### 34. Obtain information of the currency of denomination of financial assets and liabilities ### 34. Obtain information of the currency of denomination of financial assets and liabilities ### Purpose and core recommendation - Obtain information of the currency of denomination of financial assets and liabilities in order to improve treatment of exchange rate changes when balance of payments transactions are estimated from positions data. ### Response by the Ministry of Finance - The Ministry of Finance expresses its appreciation to the ROSC mission from the IMF’s Statistics Department for its assessment of the country’s fiscal statistics and the recommendations made for their improvement. - The MOF is fully aware of the challenges that it faces in this area, and of the vital importance of government finance statistics in the design, monitoring, and evaluation of the government’s fiscal policy. - The MOF endorses the mission’s recommendation to implement the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001 methodology, and requests IMF assistance to evaluate the resources currently available, as well as the requirements of the new methodology in terms of basis of recording, coverage, valuation, integration of flows and stocks, and the collection of data on nonfinancial assets. ### Action plan highlights (cross-cutting relevance) - Actively promote the adoption of a modern Statistics Law that clearly identifies responsibilities among data-producing agencies. — Medium term - Give higher priority to statistical functions and provide adequate staffing and other resources to assure timely and sustainable production of quality macroeconomic data. — Medium term - Establish data sharing agreements among different agencies collecting data needed for macroeconomic statistics. — Short term - Conduct periodic meetings between data-producing agencies for improving inter-sectoral data consistency. — Short term - Develop a medium-term plan to subscribe to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS). — Medium term - Enhance data accessibility by producing a user-friendly mechanism to provide electronic access to selected databases. — Short term ### Balance of Payments Statistics — specific actions related to currency denomination and related methodological improvements - Develop a comprehensive plan that lists actions and key target dates to migrate BOP and IIP statistics to BPM6. — Short term - Remove the financial derivatives line included under direct investment, in BOP and IIP presentations. — Short term - Develop a plan to compile the BOP and IIP memorandum items included in the standard presentation of BPM6, as relevant. — Medium term - Disseminate the sectoral breakdown in the financial account of the BOP and in the IIP. — Short term - Implement the classification and sectorization recommended in BPM6 as explained in volume III. — Short term - Revise the value of portfolio investment liabilities in the IIP using the market value at the end of each reporting period. — Short term - Obtain information on the currency of denomination of financial assets and liabilities to exclude exchange rate changes when transactions are estimated from positions. — Short term - Record interest on external debt, including portfolio investment, on an accrual basis. — Medium term - Record arrears in the original debt instrument (when implementing BPM6) rather than under other short-term debt liabilities, which was the treatment in BPM5. — Short term ### Complementary accuracy, reliability, and data-source actions relevant to BOP and IIP quality - Supplement direct investment survey-data with information collected from the balance sheets and income statements of the direct investment enterprises to improve FDI coverage. — Short term - Prepare and maintain a register of direct investment enterprises in Paraguay with precise information (e.g., net worth and percentage of foreign ownership) to establish a ranking of these enterprises and assure the inclusion of FDI data and other external sector related data, including services, from the largest direct investment enterprises. — Short term - Obtain detail data on freight transport and freight insurance with nonresidents from the Directorate General of Customs on a regular basis. — Short term - In coordination with the banking sector, improve the collection of data on payments and receipts in foreign currency by: - (i) including new BOP concepts; - (ii) assuring the appropriate classification of each item (above a threshold); and - (iii) adding information on the transactors’ residency. Increase banking sector awareness on the need for accurate data for BOP and IIP purposes. — Medium term - Use information posted on the US Federal Reserve website only to verify information from other data sources, because this information, at least partially, is included in the BIS data. — Short term - Consider the differences in methodology when using data from the Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) to estimate BOP transactions. — Short term - Explore the use of sample techniques to derive grossing-up factors. — Medium term - Revise the estimates of goods leaving the Commercial Free Zones (“re-exports”) using imports data under the Decree 6406 collected by the Directorate General of Customs. — Short term - Review current estimates on imports of smuggled goods and informal trade with compilers from counterpart economies. — Medium term - Enact an agreement with National Directorate of Civil Airports to obtain transports data for BOP purposes. — Medium term - In coordination with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, conduct a survey to foreign embassies and consulates to obtain data on government services n.i.e (credits). — Medium term - Apply the residence criteria to include real estate estimates in external sector statistics. — Short term - Strengthen data revision policies and practices. — Short term ### Serviceability and dissemination commitments related to external sector statistics - Report quarterly BOP and IIP statistics to the IMF’s Statistics Department with quarterly timeliness. — Short term - Establish a regular process to cross-check the consistency between each component of the income account and the corresponding position recorded in the IIP. — Short term - Conduct regular meetings within the CBP to ensure consistency of macroeconomic statistics. — Short term - Conduct semiannual meetings with the MOF to discuss issues of common interest, coordinate external debt data submission to the World Bank (QEDS), and ensure the consistency with fiscal data. — Short term - Prepare comprehensive metadata, describing concepts, data sources, compilation methods, and other methodological aspects. — Short term - Maintain current the metadata available in national publications as well as the GDDS metadata posted on the IMF’s DSBB. — Ongoing - Complete the IMF’s BOP and IIP metadata questionnaires through Integrated Correspondence System (ICS). — Short term *Source: _cr14248 - 34. Obtain information of the currency of denomination of financial assets and liabilities (ROSC—Data Module, Volume III, August 2014).* ### 0. Prerequisites of Quality ______________________________________________________________________ 6 ### 0. Prerequisites of Quality ### 0.1 Legal and institutional environment - Responsibility for compiling and disseminating national accounts: - The national accounts of Paraguay are compiled and disseminated by the National Accounts and Domestic Market Department (DCNMI) of the Office of the Deputy General Manager for Monetary Policy (SGGPM) of the Central Bank of Paraguay (CBP). - The CBP is established by Article 285 of the Constitution and, in its character of technical body, holds the exclusive duty of monetary emission in accordance to the objectives of economic policy of the national government. - The Charter of the CBP (Law No. 489/95) states in Article 1 that the CBP is a technical body with administrative and patrimonial autarky with normative autonomy within the boundaries of the Constitution. - The Charter’s Article 4 indicates that the CBP will act as economic and financial counselor of the government but does not explicitly stipulate the compilation and dissemination of national accounts statistics as one of the functions; Article 82, however, on compilation of statistics states that the CBP will compile and publish among others, statistics on product and income. - Authority and data collection powers: - Article 80 of the CBP's Charter provides authority for collecting statistics: public institutions, banks, financial, and other institutions engaged in financial intermediation and business or private sector will provide the requested data and information the CBP requires for the performance of its functions, preserving the confidentiality of such information. - Article 81 states that for financial planning purposes, the Ministry of Finance (MOF) will provide the CBP reports on income and tax expenses, the implementation of the national budget and other information necessary for the development of such programming. - Article 5 states that to fulfill its functions, the CBP will count on own resources and the cooperation of all entities dependent on the state. - Recommendations: - Within the ongoing project of revision of the CBP’s Charter, consider explicitly stating CBP’s responsibility for compiling and disseminating national accounts statistics, rather than statistics in the matters of product and income only. - Considering the restrictions of source data and the efforts made by the CBP in collecting basic statistics, legal empowerment for collecting information could be strengthen in the Charter, specifically for the group of nonfinancial corporations. ### 0.1.2 Data sharing and coordination among data-producing agencies - Current arrangements and practices: - The CBP keeps regular contact with other data producer agencies to coordinate and promote appropriate and common understanding about data requirement and sharing; coordination has turned into an effective, timely and updated (when appropriate) flow of information. - On major surveys, the CBP participates in technical inter-institutional ad-hoc committees and through other informal means. - Formal agreements and arrangements exist with other producing institutions to provide effective and timely flows of data for the compilation of the national accounts. - The CBP receives from the MOF: (i) monthly data on levels of aggregate sales by economic activity of medium and large size firms; (ii) monthly data for the central government; and (iii) annual data for the general government. - The CBP also receives data on crop prices and livestock from the Ministry of Agriculture and on employment from the Ministry of Labor, Employment and Social Security. - Harmonization efforts: - Producers have decided to apply ISIC Rev. 4 for the forthcoming change of the base year of the national accounts to facilitate use of data on production, remuneration of employees, employment, collected taxes, and other statistics classified by economic activity. - Product classification harmonization will be obtained by updating to CPC version 2. - Role and constraints of DGEEC: - The Directorate General of Statistics, Surveys, and Censuses (DGEEC) is tasked with organizing, planning, developing, and implementing statistical national policies and plans, as well as surveys and censuses according to national laws and international conventions, and must coordinate with other public and private bodies. - Despite these responsibilities, the DGEEC lacks the institutional hierarchy, and the appropriate legal strength and resources to fulfill the duties authorized by the 1942 law and subsequent amendments. - The involvement of the DGEEC in producing economic statistics is limited and its confidentiality restrictions are an impediment to a fluent sharing of detailed data with the CBP. - Recommendations: - Enhance formal coordination with other statistical agencies through official agreements to define data requirements at detailed level, and to warrant continuity and timeliness of source data transfers. Use the collected data in all their potential as to avoid duplication of efforts and to improve statistical quality. - Establishment and regular functioning of inter-institutional working groups or committees by subject matter so as to coordinate statistical work. - Sign an agreement between the CBP and the DGEEC so that the National Accounts Division (DCN) may have full access to the economic census data taking into account confidentiality safeguards. ### 0.1.3 Individual reporters’ data confidentiality and use - Legal and operational safeguards: - The Charter of the CBP establishes the obligation to maintain the secrecy and confidential nature of information requested by the Bank, including provisions for supplying information on the economic and financial situation of finance companies, with express prior authorization of the entity concerned, to authorities responsible for supervising entities of this nature in foreign countries (Articles 6, 7, and 8). - Article 6 states that any person who has (had) access to reserved information is in the obligation of keeping secrecy; failure to fulfill these rules is subject to penal liabilities. - Article 80 reinforces the CBP’s commitment to keeping confidentiality of information transferred for the performance of its duties. - Individual data are handled under proper access privileges; access to microdata is restricted only to specific professionals in charge of the compilation. Aggregation rules are in place to prevent individual detection of entities in compliance with Article 82 of the Charter. - The General Law on Banks, Finance Companies, and other Credit Institutions specifies: (i) the type of information and periodicity of its submission by financial institutions (Article 55); (ii) provisions related to the submission of information to the public by directors, administrative and supervisory bodies, and workers of financial institutions, including the CBP and the Superintendence of Banks (Article 84); (iii) exceptions to secrecy requirements, especially in judicial or administrative cases in the process of which information on operations protected by bank secrecy has been used; and (iv) sanctions for failure to comply with the provisions of this law. - Respondents are informed in surveys and other statistical inquiries of their rights and obligations with regard to the provision of information, with particular emphasis on confidentiality and statistical use of the data provided. ### 0.1.4 Statistical reporting mandate and measures to encourage response - Legal mandate and compliance incentives: - The CBP's Charter provides legal authority to collect data required by the Bank; however, no penalties are established for not responding or providing false information for nonfinancial entities, implying a voluntary response scheme to surveys or direct questionnaires. - The General Law on Banks, Finance Companies, and other Credit Institutions specifies sanctions for failure to comply with its provisions, but these do not apply to nonfinancial entities that are especially important for national accounts statistics. - As a result, completion of CBP surveys by nonfinancial entities is done on a voluntary basis. - Measures to encourage response and reduce burden: - The CBP seeks cooperation by providing respondents with information on the objectives of the survey and the intended use of the data in a note attached to the questionnaire. - Assistance to respondents is provided through a point of contact for completing and submitting questionnaires. - CBP gives careful consideration to response burden, relying as much as possible on administrative sources (for example, enterprises’ financial statements attached to the tax forms). *Source: _cr14248 - 0. Prerequisites of Quality* ### 0.2 Resources ### 0.2 Resources ### 0.2.1 Staff, facilities, computing resources, and financing - Institutional structure and staffing - Under the current functional structure, the DCNMI comprises four divisions: the National Accounts, the Domestic Market (in charge of the CPI and PPI), Technical Support, and Sectoral Estimation and Projection. - The DCN has 20 employees, of which 17 have university degree. - Staff clusters: - (i) current compilers of the national accounts: five employees, including the division chief (average staff seniority of current compilers approximately twelve years); - (ii) new hiring intended for supporting the change of the base year: eight employees; - (iii) supporting staff: three employees; - (iv) staff studying abroad: four employees. - Four sections within the DCN: (i) Statistics on Production of Goods; (ii) Statistics on Services; (iii) Institutional Sector Accounts; and (iv) Short Term Indicators. - A plan for changing the base year is under development and additional staff will be hired on top of the eight new employees. Twenty additional employees to be mainly devoted to the rebasing project are expected by mid 2014. Most of the new staff would be recently graduated students (economics and accounting) with no experience in national accounts compilation. - An official resolution creating eight new vacancies was released in mid February 2014. - Training, experience, and external assistance - Staff participated in various courses and workshops on the 1993 SNA and its implementation. - Four staff members participated in short courses abroad (mostly provided by INE-Spain), and one course on quarterly accounts provided by the IMF in Brasilia. - Four IMF national accounts technical assistance missions took place since the 2006 Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) Data Module mission. - Salaries received by employees of the DCN are competitive with respect to other comparable institutions. - Data source coverage and compilation pressures - To overcome the lack of direct basic statistics, compilers must collect and process source data through business surveys or administrative records. - Progressive decrease of available compilers has led to a decrease of the coverage of source data and possibly to a decline of the statistical quality of national accounts statistics. - Computing resources and financing - The CBP has started a renewing program permitting DCN to count on updated and sufficient resources according to the current workload. - Each of the 20 employees has a personal computer assigned (at the level of Intel dual core) and basic working software such as Excel. - The DCN counts on an assigned server where most of the information is stored and protected. - On account of the rebasing project, more resources have been assigned and new computers will be available to the staff. - Domestic financial resources assigned to the DCN on occasion of the rebasing project have increased; therefore, it will not be necessary to depend on external funds (as it was the case in the previous exercise). - Recommendations - Develop and implement a long-term strategy for strengthening human resources in the DCN in order to expand and sustain the production of national accounts statistics. The strategy should consider the increase in the number of employees dedicated to the compilation and broadening of the scope of national accounts, including the implementation of new requirements of the System of National Accounts 2008 (2008 SNA). - Develop policy for retaining qualified staff (including returned postgraduate student), and a program for training new staff beyond the development and implementation of the new reference year. ### 0.2.2 Measures to ensure efficient use of resources - Governance and performance management - According to Article 37 of the CBP’s Charter, the CBP is externally audited, at least every two years, in relation to its administrative, financial and operative management. - Staff performance evaluation carried out by the human resources department was discontinued a few years ago. - CBP has a manual for managing training programs but it should be applied according to the needs of each area to avoid continuity issues in statistical compilation. - Use of external expertise - The DCN, supported by CBP’s authorities, seeks outside expert assistance to evaluate statistical methodologies and compilation systems. - Recommendations - A proper assessment of performance with incentives could be helpful for improving performance and creating professional stimulus to staff. - A technical promotion ladder could be put in place to create an alternative to the managerial scale as to have more flexible option to promote (and retain) highly qualified and experienced staff. - More specific rules should be put in place in order to organize a smooth turnover of staff without harming continuity nor preventing staff from further formal training. ### 0.3 Relevance - 0.3.1 User consultation and responsiveness - Users are not formally consulted on their needs, and no structured mechanisms to identify new and emerging data requirements are in place. - Informal contacts and meetings with other institutions and users are normally used to receive new requirements. - National accounts officials tend to participate in international courses, meetings and seminars organized by ECLAC, MERCOSUR and other organizations, subject to budget constraints. - Recommendations - Initiate regular consultations with public and private sector users, including through fostering users’ groups and establishing an advisory committee to improve the usefulness of statistics and advice on statistical program priorities. The advisory committee should include participation of academics, private sector analysts, and producers’ associations. - Keep track and analyze users’ requests made to the DCN periodically in order to improve the service provided to them. ### 0.4 Other quality management - 0.4.1 Processes to focus on quality - CBP has introduced improvements within existing budgetary limits, including: - inclusion of the two binational hydroelectrical enterprises within the boundary of resident entities (according to the proportion of property); - participation in the IMF’s General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) and interest on identifying data gaps to participate in the IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS); - periodic requests of technical assistance to the IMF’s Statistics Department and subsequent implementation of main recommendations; - project for updating the national accounts base year with CBP’s own funds. - Excellence and professionalism are promoted as CBP values and strategic objectives. - 0.4.2 Processes to monitor quality during planning and implementation - Compilers gained expertise through the implementation process of the 1993 SNA on analysis of source data, application of compilation methods and the assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs; this knowledge is systematically applied. - Compilation and revision cycles of the national accounts constitute mechanisms to monitor quality. *Source: _cr14248 - 0.2 Resources* ### 2.3 Classification/sectorization ### 2.3 Classification/sectorization ### 2.3.1 Classification/sectorization — findings - Systems used are broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices. - The classification and sectorization used in the compilation of national accounts are partially consistent with internationally recommended systems. - Institutional units: NPISH are not separated from households (for example, when estimating their final consumption expenditure). - Institutional sector accounts are not currently produced but are considered as one of the new developments from the new reference year. - Classification of transactions broadly follows the 1993 SNA. - Establishments and enterprises are classified by economic activity using a national industrial classification, which is compatible with the ISIC Rev.3. - Products are classified according to the National Product Classification that is compatible with the CPC. - Correspondence tables have been prepared, linking the national activity and product classifications to ISIC Rev.3 and CPC, respectively. - Gross fixed capital formation is classified by type of asset, but not by economic activity. - The Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP) is not applied to households’ final consumption expenditure. - Although a classification by function is applied by the MOF to the government expenditures, the DCN does not disseminate final consumption expenditure classified by the Classification of Functions of Government (COFOG), as recommended by the 1993 SNA. ### 2.3.1 Classification/sectorization — recommendation - Update the current classifications to ISIC Rev. 4 and CPC Ver. 2, and adopt COICOP and COFOG when changing the base year of the national accounts. --- ### 2.4 Basis for recording ### 2.4.1 Valuation — findings - Market prices are used to value flows and stocks. - Valuation rules used for recording transactions and stocks are broadly in accordance with the 1993 SNA. - Market output is valued preferably at basic prices. - Base year’s estimates of output for own use were valued at equivalent market prices when feasible; otherwise they were measured at costs, being this the second-best valuation consistent with the 1993 SNA. Subsequent years are derived by extrapolation. - Value added, sales, and excise taxes are included in the valuation of intermediate consumption, but the deductible part of the value added taxes is excluded. - The deductible part of the value added taxes is excluded from the valuation of final uses, when data sources allow. - Transfer prices in domestic transactions have not been detected; consequently, corrections are not made. - In transactions with the rest of the world, no adjustments are made to correct for possible over- or under-valuation of the amounts declared on exports and imports in the Customs forms. - Total imports and exports are valued on an f.o.b. basis. - Transactions in foreign currency are converted using the quarterly averages of monthly exchange rates, which are in turn calculated as average of daily records. ### 2.4.2 Recording basis — findings - Recording is done on an accrual basis for most transactions and flows. - Government revenues and some of the rest of the world flows are recorded on a cash basis. - Government expenses are recorded on cash and on obligation basis, both of which might have deviations from an accrual basis. - DCN uses the monthly report of executed budget (cash principle) since there is not clarity on the “obligado” basis, which has shown strong volatility (see 2.4.2 in the Government Finance Statistics (GFS)’s detailed assessment). - Work-in-progress, where available data exist, is recorded in the period when the harvest takes place. ### 2.4.2 Recording basis — recommendations - Work in close relation with the MOF to better understand its principles of recording as to derive a suitable adjustment to convert government expenditure data onto an accrual basis. - Work-in-progress should be recorded on a cost basis along the crop’s cycle period. ### 2.4.3 Grossing/netting — findings - Grossing/netting procedures are broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices. - Output of different establishments and activities in an enterprise are recorded on a net basis at enterprise level, since data collected is at the level of enterprises without establishment detail. ### 2.4.3 Grossing/netting — recommendation - Survey program should account for integrated enterprise/establishment units and thus include differentiable information of establishments from that reported by enterprise they belong to. --- ### 3. Accuracy and reliability ### 3.1 Source data — findings - Source data are obtained from comprehensive data collection programs that take into account country-specific conditions. - National accounts data collection rests on transfer of information from other governmental bodies, such as the Ministry of Agriculture, MOF, Ministry of Labor, Employment and Social Security, from other areas of the CBP, and direct information from key relevant enterprises. - Most information collected comprises measures of output and/or sales; little information is collected for intermediate consumption, inventories, final consumption expenditure, and fixed capital formation. - There is no statistical system in place that would provide annual statistics based on regular, comprehensive, exhaustive, detailed, and continuous structural surveys. - Recent and non-regular sources to be used for the forthcoming change of base year: (i) the Population Census (2011), (ii) annual Households Surveys, (iii) a comprehensive Households Budget Survey (HBS) (2005-2006), (iv) an Agriculture Census (2006), and (v) the Economic Census (2010). - An updated Directory of Enterprises/Establishments has been generated and is planned to be updated during 2014. - Enterprises balance sheets are available but have not been explored due to resource limitations. - Partial information is collected directly for a specific group of enterprises on a monthly/quarterly basis, but no detailed and comprehensive survey program is in place. - The new business register is currently being used by the CBP to update the number and classification of units included in the sample for data collection from the MOF (monthly total sales). - Household data: three types of surveys exist: (i) a comprehensive HBS; (ii) a permanent household survey (annual); and (iii) a continuous employment survey. - The last comprehensive household survey was conducted in 2005/06; results will be incorporated in the estimates of the new base year. Authorities are aware of the need for a new survey but there are no specific plans to do so. - The comprehensive household survey covered urban areas within the Great Asuncion; a two-stage stratified random sampling technique was applied and grossing-up factors are derived scientifically from the population census. - Annual household survey has national coverage (excluding two areas with low representation). The continuous employment survey covers areas of the Great Asunción. - Comprehensive and timely information is available for government units, except for the operations of decentralized government; coverage is incomplete but most important local government bodies are included. - Data permit measurement of output, intermediate consumption, fixed capital formation, and final consumption expenditure of government services; data on capital stocks are not available. - Data collection from administrative records is timely and detailed at the level of economic activities; periodic updating of the sample and classification of units is necessary. - Price statistics: good level of detail for agriculture products; Ministry of Agriculture collects monthly prices for numerous agriculture products and provides them to the CBP. - CPI updated in 2008 following the modified Laspeyres index methodology; increased detail to 450 goods and services and improved statistical techniques. - PPI updated in 2011 along the same lines as the CPI. - A mixture of unit values and imported component of PPI are used to deflate exported and imported products; prices are generally consistent with variables being deflated except for the mentioned unit values. - Comprehensive and exhaustive data for the financial sector are collected from CBP’s bank supervision area. - Most source data received by the DCN corresponds to monthly figures. - CBP compiles a Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) since 1991; index constructed at level 33 economic activities and used in quarterly compilation of GDP by economic activity and preliminary annual GDP estimates; index disseminated in CBP’s Monthly Bulletin. - Informal contacts are done, on a non-regular basis, when supplementary information is needed. - Data on international trade are available with a very tight schedule, generating, sometimes, a bottleneck in the dissemination of the quarterly GDP, as data on expenditure and production are released simultaneously. ### 3.1 Source data — recommendations - Further use should be given to enterprise balance sheets as to complement missing information and as a cross-checking tool. - Develop and conduct a program of structural annual surveys to cover and complement certain specific activities and other components of the accounts. Surveys should include minimum requirements of information for the national accounts such as output (including secondary production), revenues, input details and costs, gross fixed capital formation, employment, and inventories of raw material, finished goods, and goods for resale. - Update the business register regularly by using income and value added tax records. - Conduct a new HBS and establish a schedule to conduct such survey every five years to strengthen estimates for household final consumption expenditure. - Collaborate on the review and regular update of the business register and its classification by economic activity so that the CBP can use tax records data with an improved classification. - Exploit and use available information from balance sheets reported to the international department, since they contain valuable information for the national accounts. - Evaluate the possibility of conducting a quarterly survey on production for manufacturing and quarterly sales of services, as well as on inventories of inputs and finished and resale products. --- ### 3.1.2 Source data approximation — findings and recommendations - Source data broadly approximate the definitions, scope, classifications, valuation, and time of recording required to compile the national accounts. - Some sources have their own classification systems, but national compilers establish correspondences with national accounts classifications. - Deviations from the right time of recording exist; for instance, sales data are not corrected by changes in inventories so as to derive output measures. - Coverage of total economy in terms of economic activities is fairly adequate; however, coverage within each economic activity differs. Lacks observed in some manufacturing industries and a significant part of private nonfinancial services. Recommendations: - Improve the coverage of the sales data by requesting an updated sample to the MOF. - On an annual basis, explore inventories data contained on the available collected balance sheets. --- ### 3.1.3 Timeliness — findings and recommendation - Most of the monthly source data are collected in a timely manner, including price statistics, administrative records, and direct data collection. - There is a rigorous follow-up procedure for the compilation of the IMAE. - Special arrangements exist with the MOF, the Ministry of Agriculture, and other institutions providing administrative data, and information is received on time. - Data on international trade are available with a very tight schedule, sometimes creating a bottleneck for quarterly GDP dissemination. Recommendation: - Conduct meetings with the Balance of Payments Division to assess the possibility of reducing the current time lag in delivering trade data. --- ### 3.2 Assessment of source data — findings and recommendations - Source data—including censuses, sample surveys, and administrative records—are routinely assessed (e.g., for coverage, sample error, response error, and nonsampling error), but the statistical framework is not monitored on a continuous basis; coverage is assessed irregularly. - Significant changes from available up-to-date data are incorporated into national accounts according to the revision cycle, preventing accumulation of revisions over long periods. - Data on exports and imports are revised when new figures are received from the CBP’s International Economy Department. - Source data are analyzed for temporal consistency and cross-checked with related sources; extreme values are confirmed with respondents. - GFS, merchandise trade statistics, volume and price statistics, and most data sources used to compile national accounts are routinely assessed and revisions are monitored. Recommendations: - Design and establish a regular process of assessment of the coverage of samples used to obtain administrative data. - When appropriate, ensure the realization of the sample design with a robust statistical approach. *Source: _cr14248 - 2.3 Classification/sectorization* ### 3.3 Statistical techniques ### _cr14248 - 3.3 Statistical techniques ### 3.3.1 Data compilation and validation - Data compilation employs sound statistical techniques to deal with data sources. - Data computation procedures are adequate for the survey conducted by the DCN, for use in the IMAE and hence for the QNA. - Validation and verification process is carried out directly by the compilers on self-developed procedures. - Adjustments to unit records are made only when clearly warranted, comparing historic information with secondary or indirect data. - Imputation for nonresponse is based wherever possible on data for similar type of enterprises; efforts are made to attempt respondents to provide information at least on certain relevant variables or review/correct those found abnormal. - Basic validation tools are in place to minimize processing errors such as coding, editing, and tabulation errors. - Some information is collected in paper or in pdf format, forcing manual transcription and increasing the likelihood of typing errors. Recommendations: - Apply a computer system for basic data validation controls. - Request data providers to submit the information in formats that can be directly uploaded in the DCN’s processing system. ### 3.3.2 Other statistical procedures; production approach procedures - The production approach follows the level of detail compiled in the base year 1994, comprising the 33 economic activities of the national activity classification, corresponding to ISIC rev.3 at a two-digit level. - Output at constant prices is extrapolated by means of quantum indicators or by deflated value series. - A volume index of sales is constructed based on sales data from the value added tax forms for most activities, by deflating the value index of sales by activity by an appropriate price index. - For construction, a volume index of main inputs is applied. - Information for government services is obtained from the budget execution records produced by the MOF, deflated by the general CPI. - Financial intermediation is derived from detailed financial statements collected by the CBP and deflated by the CPI. - Intermediate consumption is computed for the same level of detail. For nearly 70 percent of the value added, intermediate consumption/output coefficients are applied to output at constant prices to derive intermediate consumption at 1994 prices. Gross value added is obtained as a residual. - Fixed input/output ratios are applied in the short-run under the assumption that production functions change slowly. - In Paraguay, the fixed coefficients date from about 20 years ago; the base year 1994 is not representative of the current economic situation. - Current price estimates are derived by inflating constant price estimates. Appropriate deflators are compiled following the composition by products of the intermediate consumption of each activity, according to the activity’s absorption as calculated in the 1994 technical coefficients. - Informal sector activities are not independently estimated in the time series; available data on employment, income and salaries imply that a constant relative participation as estimated in the 1994 base year is implicitly extrapolated. - Estimates are made for smuggling in the balance of payments (BOP), which are also included in the national accounts estimates. Specific techniques for GDP compilation: - Owner-occupied dwellings: output valued as estimated rentals tenants would pay for a similar dwelling. Stock and classification by type based on the 1992 Population and Housing Census. Time series constructed by extrapolating the stock by the volume index of the construction activity and applying the rentals sub index of the corresponding components of the CPI. - Growing crops: treated as work-in-progress on the basis of the time distribution of the corresponding costs but allocated in the year of harvest and not according to the crop cycle. - Consumption of fixed capital recorded in the accounts are based on fixed ratios obtained in the base year. - Government transactions: data available in cash and “obligado” basis; recorded on cash basis in the national accounts. “Obligado” does not adequately reflect accrual recording; sums registered as “obligado” do not generally match budget execution nor reflect correct timing of economic activity. - FISIM domestically produced are allocated to resident users on the basis of the distribution of credits provided by the banks, without using a reference rate of interest mentioned by the 1993 SNA. FISIM allocation to households does not distinguish between households as producers or final consumers. No allocation is made to the government. Procedures for compiling volume measures: - Extrapolation by single volume indicators of output (or sales at constant prices) are used to estimate output at constant prices. Fixed base year coefficients are applied to derive value added. Double deflation is used for government and financial activities. - Taxes on products are estimated by extrapolating the base year taxes by a volume index of the supply of goods to domestic users (as a proxy to volume indices of sales subject to corresponding taxes), corresponding to applying fixed ratios of taxes to activities that produce nondeductible taxes. - Trade margins in constant prices are derived by extrapolating the 1994 year-trade margins with volume indices of sales of tradable goods, or with volume indices of production of tradable goods. - Work-in-progress of agricultural crops: distributed according to an estimated pattern of disbursement of costs during the whole production cycle estimated for the base year, but then allocated in the year of harvest; costs distribution has been maintained fixed since 1994. ### Expenditure approach procedures - Independently estimated aggregates: government final consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital formation, and exports and imports. - Household final consumption expenditure at constant prices is obtained for each year by applying the percentage represented by the household consumption in the 1994 supply and use table to the total supply of each of the 46 products at constant prices, implying excessive use of fixed coefficients. - CPI by product or group is applied to obtain current value measures. - Aggregated series of changes in inventories are obtained as the balancing item of GDP by the production approach and the estimated expenditure components; this hides statistical discrepancies. Observed systematic positive changes in inventories for the whole series and relatively high with respect to total GDP at constant prices suggest implausible systematic accumulation. Implicit price indices of changes in inventories are inconsistently erratic. - Household final consumption expenditure is not compiled by purpose. - Government final consumption expenditure generated at aggregate level and not classified by function, although MOF produces a functional classification. - Gross-fixed capital formation compiled by type of assets (construction and machinery and equipment), but not by activity (commodity flow method applied). - Exports and imports are consistent with BOP data, including major estimates for unrecorded foreign trade. Unit value indices applied for most items to estimate flows at constant prices. - Current values and volume estimates of changes in inventories are derived residually as the balancing item of total GDP estimates from the expenditure to the production approach. Specific notes on expenditure approach coverage: - Government final expenditure excludes incidental sales. - Expenditures of residents abroad are included in household final consumption expenditure and in imports. Expenditures of nonresidents in the economy are included in exports, but not excluded from household final consumption expenditure. - Expenditures on items considered stores of wealth (jewelry, works of art) are not included in gross fixed capital formation due to lack of detail. - Government final consumption expenditure is derived by deflating cost components of output for final use, except compensation of employees, which are extrapolated by a volume index of government’s employment. ### Specific quarterly compilation techniques - DCNMI produces and disseminates quarterly national accounts at constant 1994 prices as well as at current prices. Both production and expenditure approaches are compiled. - Sources of the production approach are consistent with the annual data and are available mainly on a monthly basis. Volume indexes are constructed and used as indicator series by economic activity under the single indicator approach. - Household final consumption expenditure at constant prices is obtained by deflating total domestic sales of consumer goods by appropriate price indexes. - Gross capital formation derived using a composite indicator comprising construction activity, imports of capital goods and capital government expenses. - International trade provided by the International Economy Department (along with unit values). - Government consumption derived following annual compilation methodology. - Changes in inventories are derived residually (exhibiting odd fluctuations). - Benchmarking: proportional Denton technique applied to align quarterly indicators to annual estimates. - Quarterly series in current values are derived by inflating constant price estimates previously derived. - Quarterly base year’s figures at current and constant 1994 average prices are the same, signaling null evolution of prices for each quarter of 1994. - Quarterly compilation system derives quarterly series from original series, providing unadjusted quarterly estimates. - Seasonally adjusted GDP estimated using the X-12 ARIMA. Recommendations: - Abandon the single indicator approach for the estimation of volume figures. - Reinforce the capacity for developing independent estimates of the accounts in current values. - Resume the production of the supply and use tables as compilation and validation tool for the national accounts. - Derive independent estimates for final household consumption expenditure (exploiting alternative data sources such value added tax records). - Move to chained indices for the compilation of volume measures from the new base year. - Make independent estimates of informal sector activities regularly. ### Monthly index of economic activity (IMAE) - IMAE is a Laspeyres volume index obtained by integrating the monthly production (or deflated sales) indices of relevant industries by the composition of value added in 1994. - Most information for primary industries, a significant portion of food industry, electricity, and construction correspond to volume indices; most secondary and tertiary industries are constant price sales, some combined with complementary volume data. - Financial sector and government services are derived from official records. - Index conceived to cover all activities comprising GDP as estimated in 1994; coverage in each individual indicator varies; some manufacturing activities and personal and business services present deficiencies in coverage. - Seasonally-adjusted data calculated using the X-12 ARIMA. --- ### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs - 3.4.1 Intermediate results are validated against other information where applicable. When alternative independent data are available, main national accounts sources are cross-checked. Enterprise survey information is assessed against enterprise financial statements, other administrative sources and producers’ unions. Production data of crops from the Ministry of Agriculture are validated against foreign trade statistics when appropriate. Alternative independent information is very limited. - 3.4.2 Statistical discrepancies in intermediate data are assessed and investigated. Whenever discrepancies are detected, they are assessed, investigated and reconciled or removed as appropriate. - 3.4.3 Statistical discrepancies and other potential indicators of problems in statistical outputs are investigated. Discontinuance of the supply and use framework severely reduced capacity to analyze discrepancies. For 1991–1997, national accounts aggregates are consistent in terms of supply and use at the level of 46 products and 33 activities with corresponding expenditure counterparts. Thereafter, given the calculation method to derive the expenditure approach, discrepancies remain embedded in the balancing item (changes in inventories). The production and expenditure approaches are not independently estimated. - In exceptional cases of unofficial GDP estimates publicly released, DCN has researched validity and used results internally. ### 3.5 Revision studies - 3.5.1 Studies and analyses of revisions and/or updates are carried out and used internally to inform statistical processes. - Adequate documentation on analysis of major revisions, such as the change in the base year, is made publicly available and includes description of causes of revisions. - When GDP figures change with respect to preliminary estimates, revisions are internally explained but not published. Recommendation: - Perform revision studies regularly to determine whether systematic biases are affecting the estimates. --- ### 4 Serviceability #### 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness - 4.1.1 Periodicity follows dissemination standards. National accounts statistics, in particular GDP estimates, and IMAE meet GDDS periodicity standards. - 4.1.2 Timeliness follows dissemination standards. Annual GDP estimates are disseminated nine months after the end of the reference year fulfilling GDDS requirements. The CBP also disseminates quarterly GDP estimates, within three months after the end of the reference quarter (encouraged in the GDDS). IMAE meets GDDS timelines (up to 12 weeks). #### 4.2 Consistency - 4.2.1 Statistics are consistent within the dataset. Reconciled GDP estimates are derived by the production and the expenditure approaches in current and constant prices. Income approach is consistent with the other two approaches in current prices. GDP estimates at current prices, volume measures, and implicit deflators are consistent within the “value = volume × price” framework. Discrepancies between supply and expenditures are adjusted as part of changes in inventories since supply sources are considered more reliable. - 4.2.2 Statistics are consistent or reconcilable over a reasonable period of time. From the previous rebasing exercise base and including revision of binational hydroelectrical enterprises, a consistent system of time series for national accounts data were produced for 1991–1997. From 1998 onwards, GDP by activities, expenditure, and income components are compiled consistently. Quarterly GDP and IMAE are disseminated as consistent time series from 1994. GDP time series was retropolated back to 1962 by applying consistent growth rates to those obtained with the 1982 reference year series. Series are available on request. Recommendations: - Reconstruct historical series as far back as reasonably possible for the main national accounts aggregates. Make long time series available on the CBP website, along with the methodologies applied. - Include the linked time series on the excel sheets and make the option for requesting longer time series known to users. - 4.2.3 Statistics are consistent or reconcilable with those obtained through other data sources and/or statistical frameworks. National accounts statistics are broadly consistent with BOP, government finance statistics, and other related statistical frameworks. External trade, monetary and GFS are reconcilable with national accounts estimates since the data sources used in their compilation are the same. - Examples: (i) investments in public finance statistics may contain current expenditures, such as training, which national accounts compilers exclude to calculate gross fixed capital formation; (ii) employment insurance schemes are included in the financial sector for national accounts purposes, but GFS include them in the government sector. *IMF staff report excerpt: _cr14248 - 3.3 Statistical techniques* ### 4.3 Revision policy and practice ### 4.3 Revision policy and practice ### Revision schedule and regularity - The regular publication cycle of the national accounts, in annual terms, includes a first annual release corresponding to the publication of the last quarter by the QNA, in March of each year. - Results are made public through the quarterly report (data are updated on the website). - In September of the same year, the first release of the annual national accounts estimate for the preceding year is disseminated on the annual report of the national accounts, implying the first revision. - At the same time (September), a revised version of the annual accounts for the preceding year to the previous year (two years ago) is released (second revision) in the same report. - The permanent revision cycle for the annual figures includes 2 revisions. - Major revisions are carried out on an ad hoc basis. - The revision cycle has been established taking into account timeliness of data sources and timing of the preparation of economic policy documents and the CBP’s Annual Report. - The revision cycle is disseminated in advance to general public. - QNA is framed within the annual cycle since both sets of statistics are made consistent so any change in the annual accounts will have an effect on the quarterly version. - In addition to revisions derived from the annual cycle of revisions, quarterly figures are revised during the current year, as new data become available. ### Identification of preliminary and revised data - Preliminary nature of the estimated aggregates at the time of data dissemination is clearly identified. - The nature of revised data is not clearly identified. ### Revision studies and public analysis - Major revisions are analyzed and made public, such as the recent adoption of the 1993 SNA and a new base year; detailed explanations on the differences between the new and the old series were prepared. - Documentation on the analysis of the revisions due to the incorporation of nonresident entities to the domestic economy was extensively documented and presented in public media. - Analysis and assessment of revisions and the causes of revisions of preliminary data are partially prepared (for internal use), but not provided to the public. - No revision studies have been done; consequently, no results have been disseminated. ### Recommendation - Incorporate within the routine tasks of compilation of statistics, the analysis of revisions and include an explanatory paragraph in the published documents. *Source: 4.3 Revision policy and practice — _cr14248 - 4.3 Revision policy and practice* ### 0.3 Relevance ### 0.3 Relevance ### Relevance and user engagement - The CPI is the inflation indicator of Paraguay and is widely used and known. - No periodic formal process of consultation on the utility of the CPI has been established, but new users’ demands are identified and satisfied. - A new price index series on cement prices was recently produced to respond to the needs of the construction economic sector (reference in source). - The DMI presents the results of the CPI (together with the PPI) on a monthly basis in a press conference where the media is invited to pose questions about the results. - Particular concerns and/or users needs raised at press conferences are passed forward by the CBP’s press unit and subsequently addressed by the DMI. ### Other quality management - The authorities recognize the importance of the CPI and that constant improvement is needed. - Outside experts assisted the DGEEC and CBP in the preparation of the 2005-2006 HBS. - Two technical assistance missions were carried out by the IMF in 2006 and 2007 (derivation of the basket of goods and services and improvement of statistical techniques used in the current CPI). - Monitoring of quality improved since the 2006 ROSC Data Module mission and is carried out on a monthly basis at various data processing stages. - The data processing system produces reports on missing prices, abnormal price variations, and imputed prices; section chiefs participate in the monthly quality effort. - This area benefitted from IMF technical assistance in 2006 and 2007. --- ### 1. Assurances of integrity ### Institutional integrity - Compilation of price statistics is done on the basis of strictly technical criteria. The DMI is independent to choose its sources of information and statistical techniques. - Professionalism and technical independence are stimulated by the CBP; CPI coordinators have taken specialized courses offered by international organizations (Eurostat, INE, CEPAL, and others). - Data sources, methodologies, and statistical procedures used in the compilation of the CPI are based on statistical considerations only. - The timing for the release of CPI results is not influenced by non-statistical criteria. - The CBP follows media coverage of its price statistics; CPI monthly press conferences are used to present explanations and prevent misinterpretation. - The DCNMI is empowered to comment on possible misinterpretation of statistics through the Office of the President of the CBP. ### Transparency - The Law No. 489/95, the monthly press releases, the methodology of the index, and an advance release calendar are publicly available on the CBP website. - There is no governmental access prior to the release of CPI figures; information is provided to all users at the same time. - Monthly inflation and economic reports bear the name and the CBP’s logo; price collection forms and other survey documents are clearly identified by the CBP logo. - CPI data available from the internet have an identification of their origin (example referenced in source). - The start of divulgation of the current CPI (base 100 = December 2007) was preceded by a press conference explaining major changes and methodological improvements. ### Ethical standards - Ethical and conduct rules of CBP’s personnel are defined in Resolution No. 20 of July 2008 (Code of Ethics). - The Code of Ethics establishes norms based on values including excellence, trust, integrity, responsibility, transparency, compromise, service, team work, institutional respect, and professionalism. - Responsibility for keeping information confidential is a duty of CBP staff (Article 18); potential conflicts of interest are identified in chapter VIII of the Code of Ethics. - The Code of Ethics is made available to every employee; duty of confidentiality and responsibility are highlighted in supervision and price collection manuals. --- ### 2. Methodological soundness ### Concepts and definitions - The concepts and definitions used in the CPI (base 100 = December 2007) are based on the SNA 1993 and are in line with the Consumer Price Index Manual 2004. - The weighting concept for the CPI follows the 1993 SNA and refers to consumption expenditures on goods and services purchased by households estimated using information from the 2005–2006 HBS, carried out in the Greater Asunción Area. - Expenditure estimates are categorized according to COICOP and are available at group, class, sub-class, and product levels. - The CPI comprises a total basket of 450 product items; the level of detail is sufficient to allow analysis of causes of inflation in any given month. ### Scope - CPI weights include own-account production of market goods and services and goods received as salary in kind. - Coverage does not extend to certain owner-occupier services (for example, shelter comfort); the value of imputed rentals was included in the weights of the CPI (base 100 = 1980) but not in CPI (base 100 = 1992) and CPI (base 100 = December 2007). - The CPI measures price change for a basket of 450 products representative of final consumption expenditures of urban households of the Greater Asunción Area (Asunción, Luque, Fernando de la Mora, Lambaré, San Lorenzo, and Capitá), representing 43.3 percent of the total urban population of the country. - An index of wider geographical coverage (representing 73.4 percent of the urban population) was suspended in 2001 due to budgetary reasons and similar price behavior with the Greater Asunción Area CPI. Given that this finding is more than ten years old, reinvestigation is desirable (example city: Ciudad del Este). Recommendations: - Conduct a study to investigate whether inclusion of prices collected in areas not currently covered by the CPI will impact significantly on official inflation rates. - Include the owner-occupied housing component in CPI weights in the next update of the price index (rental equivalent approach). ### Classification/sectorization - Classification and sectorization systems used in the CPI conform with international rules; institutional units and transactions are based on SNA 1993. - COICOP has been used since the last (2007) update of the CPI basket. ### Basis for recording - Prices used in the CPI correspond to market prices paid by households and include all taxes levied on purchased goods and services. - Specifications of goods and services in the CPI basket include product and transaction price determining characteristics (for example, dimension and country of origin). - Prices of products with defects and discriminatory price reductions (not generally available to all consumers) are not included in the monthly price survey. - Recording is done on an accrual basis in accordance with SNA 1993 rules: consumption expenditures are recorded in the period they are purchased; prices for perishable goods (fruits and vegetables) are recorded on a weekly basis. - Grossing/netting procedures for CPI (base 100 = 2007) weights are broadly in accordance with accepted practices; weight of insurance derived as difference between gross premiums and claims paid; CPI weight of vehicles traded in secondary markets is obtained by subtracting household sales of vehicles from household purchases of vehicles. --- ### 3. Accuracy and reliability ### Source data - Prices data are generated by a monthly prices survey: around 16,500 price quotes in more than 1,200 outlets are collected every month for estimation of average prices and elementary aggregates of the 450 products (359 goods and 91 services). - There are no other sources for prices information (for example, administrative files or internet price collection). - The CPI (base 100 = December 2007) sample represents a quantitative increase relative to the 1992 base CPI, which was based on 5,000 prices collected in around 600 outlets (293 products). - Price collectors and supervisors are responsible for collection of prices, characteristics information, and replacement of outlets and products/varieties to keep data sources representative. - The HBS, source for CPI weights, is conducted on an irregular basis. Prior to the 2005–2006 survey, the last two HBS were conducted in 1990-1991 and 1979. - There are no plans or scheduled dates for a next survey; CPI weights should be updated at least every five years to reflect international best practices. - The HBS 2005–2006 sample of households comprised 1,240 households distributed in the Greater Asunción Area. - The geographic coverage of weights and prices data sources is not comprehensive as CPI is restricted to the Greater Asunción Area; an index with wider geographical scope was compiled until 2001 but production stopped. - Prices data are collected with sufficient detail and include main price determining characteristics (for example, size, brand name, origin) to ensure period-to-period comparisons refer to the same variety in the same type of outlet. - Press news on variation of prices of particular products are used as external validation of collected information. Recommendations: - Conduct a new HBS to update CPI weights. - Work towards internationally recommended best practices and conduct a regular HBS every five years. ### Assessment of source data - Information about the 2005-2006 HBS can be obtained from annex 4 of the CPI methodology (source reference). - Annex includes description of survey stages and information on nonresponse rates. Sampling errors associated with estimation of household consumption expenditures are not available. - The present CPI design included, for the first time, a procedure for optimization of sample size for some products using prices/micro-data recorded over an eight-month period. It would be desirable to extend this practice to other product areas and conduct a study using information collected over a longer time period to inform the next CPI revision and sample size optimization. - The CPI data processing system produces reports with number of missing price observations by cause (definitive, temporary, seasonal, change of quality). The system can produce reports by outlet and/or by product. - A system of filters (for example, +- 10 percent) helps identify outlying price changes for analysis by the CPI team. - There are no routines or procedures implemented for checking back a sample of data at its source. - The CPI does not employ administrative data sources in its compilation process. Recommendation: - Conduct a study to better inform how to optimize CPI sample sizes in the next CPI basket update. ### Statistical techniques - Price collection is by direct observation by field staff; collection is carried out throughout the reference month simultaneous with data entry and first validation. - Supervisors and division chiefs use statistical filters in compilation software to detect coding, editing, and tabulation errors. - The 2007 base CPI employs sounder statistical methods than the 1992 base CPI, including: - use of suitable and improved methods for the imputation of missing prices (previously eliminated from CPI calculation); - treatment of missing prices due to seasonal reasons using a fixed-weight, imputed prices approach; - better use of implicit quality adjustment techniques and abandonment of the intrinsically biased link-to-show-no-change method. - Household consumption expenditures defined in accordance with SNA 1993; CPI does not include consumption weights for owner-occupied housing expenditures. - Own consumption and other nonmonetary expenditures in CPI weights are valued at market prices at time produced. - Calculation of elementary aggregates uses the geometric mean of price relatives (preferred measure for aggregation of unweighted price information), a change from the 1992 base CPI which used the ratio of arithmetic mean prices (Dutot formula). - The CPI is a fixed-quantity index with weights’ reference period (2005-2006) preceding the prices’ reference period (December 2007); weights’ reference period was price-updated to align with the price reference period. - The weights’ reference period reflects 2005-2006 consumption patterns; the 7-8 years time lag underlying current CPI weights exceeds internationally recommended good practices. - There are no plans for a new HBS. - The 1992 base CPI was linked to the December 2007 base CPI using internationally accepted techniques. A CPI series starting in December 1994 is available on the CBP website. *Source: IMF staff report content unit _cr14248 - 0.3* ### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs ### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs ### Validation practices - The CPI is regularly confronted with PPI comparable indexes at the product level. - Press information on prices and its evolution is used to validate the evolution of elementary aggregate index results. - Prices collected by the Directorate-General of Consumer Protection of the Ministry of Industry and Commerce are analyzed and used to validate CPI results. ### Investigation of discrepancies - Unusual movements of price variations are routinely investigated by supervisors and section chiefs of the CPI/PPI team. - Data checks include: - comparison of average prices; - analysis of price changes from two successive periods; - identification of outlying prices (using thresholds/filters for monthly price variations); - consulting price collectors’ explanations on collected prices and characteristics. - Discrepancies arising from erroneous imputation of missing data and other inconsistencies are assessed during CPI compilation and through reports and data screening tools in the CPI compilation software environment. - Detected inconsistencies are addressed using appropriate data adjustments. ### 3.5 Revision studies ### Current practice - An investigation of the substitution bias associated with the last base change was carried out for internal purposes. - No studies are conducted on long term-trends in the revision patterns to identify if some revisions reveal systematic bias. - Other possible sources of bias (for example, outlet substitution bias) are not investigated. ### Recommendation - Carry out a study on the possible substitution bias in the next CPI basket update and compare it with the revision study that has been carried out in the last basket update. ### 4 Serviceability ### 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness - The CPI is compiled on a monthly basis and meets GDDS recommendations. - CPI monthly estimates are released up to three days after the end of reference month. - The CPI meets the GDDS, which recommends the dissemination of monthly estimates within two months after the end of the reference month. ### 4.2 Consistency - CPI results are consistent in that the all-items CPI aggregate is invariant to the typology of aggregation used. - Consistent CPI time series exist since December 1994. - The series is available for the overall index and for two-digit COICOP groups; longer time series can be obtained from the DMI upon request. - The identification of major breaks in CPI series is available in the CPI methodology (available on the CBP website). - The behavior of the CPI is consistent with the implicit consumption deflator used in national accounts. - Inconsistencies arising from the comparison of the CPI and PPI are analyzed and investigated. ### 4.3 Revision policy and practice - Monthly inflation figures provided by the CPI are generally not revised. - Weights and the CPI basket are updated when new HBS survey information exists. - No formal policy currently defined for establishing a more regular update schedule; such a policy should consider using information from other sources (for example, information from the national accounts) and involve expertise from other institutions (for example, DGEEC). - Recommendation: - Define a revision policy for the update of CPI weights and basket of products. Work towards the establishment of a system that could feed the renewal of the CPI at regular intervals, in line with international recommendations and best practices. - CPI data are generally not subject to revisions once produced; although not explicitly stated, users are aware of this rule. - Major CPI weights and basket revisions are not measured, assessed and compared to previous CPI series in statistical publications. Inflation figures are not revised after being produced. ### 5 Accessibility ### 5.1 Data accessibility - CPI data are presented in a suitable way in publications (for example, with charts and tables) and allow users to interpret available information clearly. - The CPI is disseminated every month in a monthly inflation report (Informe de Inflación), which is available online. - Presentation of CPI monthly figures is given at a press conference at the CBP (materials used in this press conference – power point presentation and note to the press – are also available online). - Dissemination dates of the CPI are available in an advance release schedule, defined for each year and available on the CBP website. - Release of CPI data is done for all users at the same time through a press conference at the CBP. - Statistics not routinely disseminated are made available upon request; specific information requests are satisfied upon request. ### 5.2 Metadata accessibility - CPI methodology is available online on the CBP website. - At the time of the mission, the GDDS metadata posted on the IMF’s DSBB had not been updated since 2004. - Recommendation: - Update and maintain current the CPI metadata available in national publications as well as the GDDS metadata posted on the IMF website. - Note: Revised CPI metadata were posted on the IMF’s DSBB in March 2014. ### 5.3 Assistance to users - Contact points specific to the CPI are not available in CPI publications or CPI data presentations; the time spent on assisting users is not monitored and reviewed. - Recommendation: - Include and advertise on the CBP website and in CPI publications a contact point specific for this indicator. - CPI publications are widely available through the CBP website; publications not available online are available from the CBP upon request. ### Data Quality Assessment Framework: key observations (May 2012) - Consistent CPI time series since December 1994. - The last HBS was carried out in 2005-2006 and may not reflect present consumption patterns. - Recommendation recorded: Conduct a new HBS to update CPI weights. - There is no systematic and regular evaluation of bias in the CPI. - CPI weight and basket updates are not carried out at regular intervals and with a maximum lag of five years, as recommended. - GDDS metadata had not been updated since 2004 (revised metadata posted in March 2014). - There are no specific contact points for the CPI. ### PPI-related resource and operational details (selected) - The Domestic Market Division (DMI) of the DCNMI comprises a team of 23 staff members (one division chief, three section chiefs, nine supervisors, and ten price collectors). - As of March 2013, field organization changes reduced price collection teams from nine to eight. - Supervisors engage in both supervision and price collection activities; three teams specialized in PPI price collection were merged with CPI units. - Qualifications: division and section chiefs have university degrees and training in economics and statistics; price collectors must hold a bachelor’s degree; supervisors have a minimum of three years experience. - Average length of service: division and sections chiefs exceed ten years; supervisors and price collectors average three to four years. - DMI staff had not benefited from international PPI methodology training (contrary to CPI staff). - Computer and software resources improved since the 2006 ROSC Data Module mission and are adequate. - The database/data processing system features: - manages inclusion and exclusion of varieties; - generates price validation reports; - includes a routine for imputation of missing prices; - provides monthly reports on price survey coverage, observed prices, proportion of imputed prices and causes. - Planned migration from Windows Mobile to Android for PDA data collection; migration expected to be finished by mid-2014. - Vehicles assigned for price collection: ten (vehicle fleet described as one year old). - Recommendations: - Hire additional price collectors and ensure DMI maintains an adequate staff number for price collection activities and for formation of price collection teams specialized in the PPI indicator. - Improve capacity of DMI staff in PPI methodology and ensure it benefits from training and external technical assistance on this indicator. *Source: _cr14248 - 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs* ### 0.3 Relevance ### 0.3 Relevance ### 0.3.1 Findings on relevance and user needs - The relevance and practical utility of existing statistics in meeting users’ needs are monitored. - A periodic and formal process of consultation on the utility of the statistic has not been established. - New users’ demands are identified and satisfied; example: a new price index series on cement prices was produced to respond to the needs of the construction economic sector (https://www.bcp.gov.py/userfiles/files/CARTILLA-CEMENTO.pdf). - The DMI presents the results of the PPI (together with CPI results) on a monthly basis in a press conference where the media is invited to pose questions about the results. - Specific concerns and/or users needs are passed forward by the CBP press unit and subsequently addressed by the DMI. ### 0.4 Other quality management ### 0.4.1 Processes focusing on quality - Contrary to the CPI, the PPI has not received any expert advice. - The current index series (base 100 = June 2011) has replaced the previous series (base 100 = December 1995). - The methodology is available on the CBP website. - Training on PPI methodology was essentially provided by internal experts. ### 0.4.2 Processes to monitor quality during planning and implementation - Processes associated with the systematic monitoring of the quality of the data have improved since the 2006 ROSC Data Module mission. - Monitoring of quality is carried out on a monthly basis and at the various data processing stages. - The data processing system produces reports on missing prices, abnormal price variations and imputed prices, which are used to identify and improve data quality issues. - Section chiefs take part of this monthly effort. ### 1. Assurances of integrity ### 1.1 Institutional Integrity — key findings - Statistics are produced on an impartial basis; compilation of price statistics is done on the basis of strictly technical criteria. - The DMI is independent to choose its sources of information and statistical techniques. - Professionalism and technical independence are stimulated by the CBP. - Coordinators of price statistics have taken specialized courses offered by international organizations (Eurostat, INE, CEPAL, and others). ### 1.1.2 Dissemination and timing - Data sources, methodologies, and statistical procedures used in the compilation of the PPI are based on statistical considerations only. - The timing for the release of PPI results is not influenced by non-statistical or technical criteria. ### 1.1.3 Correcting misuse and misinterpretation - The CBP follows media coverage of its price statistics. - Monthly PPI (and CPI) presentations to the press are used to clarify doubts and prevent misuse of produced statistics. - The DCNMI is empowered to comment on possible misinterpretation of statistics through the Office of the President of the CBP. ### 1.2 Transparency — key elements - Terms and conditions under which statistics are collected, processed, and disseminated are publicly available: Law No. 489/95, monthly press releases, the methodology of the index, and an advance release calendar are on the CBP website. - There is no governmental access prior to the release of PPI figures. - Products of the statistical unit are clearly identified with the CBP name and logo on publications, price collection forms, and other documents. - The start of divulgation of the PPI (100 = June 2011) series was preceded by a press conference explaining major changes and methodological improvements. ### 1.3 Ethical standards — key elements - Ethical and conduct rules of CBP personnel are defined by Resolution No. 20 of July 2008 (Code of Ethics). - The Code of Ethics emphasizes confidentiality, prohibition of using information for own benefit (Article 18), and identification of potential conflicts of interest in chapter VIII. - The Code of Ethics is made available to every employee; duty of confidentiality and responsibility are highlighted in supervision and price collection manuals. ### 2. Methodological soundness ### 2.1 Concepts and definitions — structure and issues - The PPI is defined as comprising the following sub-indices: (i) a price index for nationally produced goods, and (ii) a price index for imported goods available on the domestic market. - Imported goods represent 45.2 percent of the June 2011 PPI basket. - Inclusion of import prices in the PPI is not in line with the Producer Price Index Manual 2004 conceptual standard; import price indices should not be included in the composition of the PPI as they do not represent domestic production. - The current definition is more in accordance with a Wholesale Price Index (WPI); historical WPI bases were 1938 and 1972. - PPI base weights are derived from supply and use tables provided by the national accounts (the information refers to 1994 base year). - The PPI is structured to produce estimates by product only; no industrial breakdown is provided. - Product categories aggregated for the PPI: (i) agricultural goods; (ii) livestock goods; (iii) forestry and logging products; (iv) fishing products; (v) minerals; (vi) food, beverages and tobacco, textiles, wearing apparel and leather goods; (vii) nonmetallic transportable goods; and (vii) metal products, machinery and equipment. - Products are disaggregated in line with the five-digit Central Product Classification (CPC) structure; at the product level (7-digit level), a national classification is used. Recommendation: - Remove import prices from the conceptual framework of the production prices indicator, as they do not represent domestic production. ### 2.2 Scope — coverage and gaps - The PPI for domestically produced goods covers output produced by resident enterprises in agriculture, forestry, fishery, mining, and manufacturing activities (ISIC Rev.3 sections A, B, C, and D). - Suggested expansions: progressively include sections E (electricity and water supply) and F (construction activities); exports and services are not covered and should be objects of future coverage improvements. - The percentage of gross domestic output of the sectors covered by the PPI is estimated to be of around 36 percent. - Prior to June 2011 PPI introduction, there were plans to develop an export price index; the project was not completed due to resource constraints. - The index does not cover own-account production of goods. Recommendations: - Expand gradually the scope of the PPI to include, at first, electricity and water supply and exports. At a second stage, continue expanding the coverage to include construction and services. - Plan the development of the PPI as part of a broader system of producer and wholesale price indices where, in addition to the present PPI (which currently includes import prices), other indices, such as for exports, could be included. ### 2.3 Classification/sectorization - Classification systems used are broadly in accordance with international standards. - Institutional units and transactions are defined in accordance with the 1993 SNA. - Economic activities and products are classified using national classifications consistent with ISIC Rev.3 and the CPC, respectively. ### 2.4 Basis for recording — valuation and timing - Valuation principles are broadly in line with the 1993 SNA guidelines. - The PPI is an output price index where market output is valued at producers’ prices; collected prices exclude value-added tax and represent what producers receive for produced output sold on the domestic market. - The value of imports is expressed in c.i.f. prices and includes import duties. - Recording is done on an accrual basis; output production and output prices are recorded at the moment of transaction. - Transactions between establishments within the same enterprise are recorded on a gross basis. ### 3. Accuracy and Reliability ### 3.1 Source data — coverage, samples, timeliness - There is no regular survey program covering production of national output; PPI weights were drawn using supply and use tables supplemented by administrative records from the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock, the MOF, and Industrial Unions/Associations. - Information used in PPI weights and basket is referenced to year 2010. - Supply and use tables provided information for a total of 268 goods and services; services were ruled out, so the target population was confined to 236 produced goods. - Final PPI sample includes 185 products, chosen using a cut-off sampling approach and representing around 80 percent of the production value of covered economic activities. - This is an improvement from the previous PPI (December 1995 = 100) series, which had a basket of 125 products. - Services are estimated to weight 42.9 percent of gross domestic output; construction is estimated to weight 3.6 percent of gross domestic output. - Prices data are essentially generated by the prices survey conducted monthly by price collectors and supervisors. - The PPI is based on a sample of around 2,500 prices for 185 produced products. - The PPI has national coverage; collectors and supervisors handle collection and replacement of products/varieties. - Collected price information includes main price-determining characteristics (for example, size, brand name, origin) to ensure period-to-period price comparisons refer to the same product variety. - PPI information is sufficiently detailed to estimate evolution at the 2-digit level of ISIC Rev.3 and at the 4-digit level of the CPC. - Prices received by producers for their exports should be included in future PPI updates. Recommendations: - Start planning the next PPI revision/update. - Combine the information of the last 2011 National Economic Census with other sources to regularly update the directory of establishments/reporting units. ### 3.2 Assessment of source data - The price collection survey is conducted monthly; collected price information is consistent with the time of recording and valuation principles. - Collection, insertion, and validation of prices are carried out during eight days of the second and fourth weeks of the reference month for the Greater Asunción Area, and during the second, third, and fourth weeks of the reference month for the central, east, and south zones of the country. - Prices of agricultural goods provided by the Ministry of Agriculture are received up to two weeks after the end of the reference month. - Price collection teams and resources are managed according to a predetermined calendar to guarantee production of final statistical output in time for divulgation purposes. ### 3.2.1 Assessment gaps and system checks - There is no information available to users on sampling and non-sampling errors associated with the estimation of weights and the prices survey. - Sample sizes of the prices survey have not been assessed and optimized (for example, using information about variability of past prices). - The PPI processing system produces reports with the number of missing price observations by cause (definitive, temporary or change of quality); the system can produce reports by outlet and/or product. - A system of filters (for example, +- 10 percent) helps identify outlying price changes for analysis by the PPI team. - Routines are implemented involving checking price information at its source. Recommendation: - Assess prices source data using sampling techniques (for example, optimize sample size using prices information collected in the past). ### 3.3 Statistical techniques - Data used in PPI production are collected by direct observation by field staff and using administrative records with prices information (for example, agricultural products’ average prices). - Collection is carried out throughout the reference month simultaneously with data entry and first validation procedures. - Supervisors and division chiefs use statistical filters in compilation software to detect coding, editing, and tabulation errors. - The PPI does not cover electricity, water, gas, construction, and services; exports should be included to achieve full coverage. - The PPI (base 100 = June 2011) benefited from statistical method improvements introduced in the December 2007 CPI: - Imputation of missing prices using internationally accepted methods (missing prices were previously eliminated from PPI calculation). - Use of implicit methods and abandonment of the link-to-show-no-change technique to deal with quality change. ### 3.3.2 Other procedures and aggregation - Gross output is generally consistent with the 1993 SNA; work in progress, inventory valuation adjustment, and production of services from owner-occupied dwellings are not taken in PPI weights. - Calculation of elementary aggregates and higher-level aggregations is carried out in line with the PPI manual. - Elementary aggregates are calculated using the geometric mean of price relatives. - The PPI is a fixed-quantity index with weights’ reference period defined in 2010 preceding the prices’ reference period (i.e., June 2011); weights’ reference period was price updated to align with the price reference period. - A PPI series starting in December 1994 is available on the CBP website; the series was developed using internationally accepted practices. ### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and outputs - Intermediate results are validated against CPI comparable indices at the product level. - Data are regularly analyzed for inconsistency across different products of the PPI basket. - Data checks include comparison of prices of goods of imported and national origin, analysis of price changes from two successive periods, and examination of qualitative information from supervisors and price collectors. - Identification of outlying movements is routinely carried out using thresholds for monthly price variations. - Analysis is validated against relevant press news on prices and their behavior. - Discrepancies arising from erroneous imputation of missing data and other inconsistencies are assessed during the compilation process and through reports and data screening tools; detected inconsistencies are addressed using appropriate data adjustments. *International Monetary Fund — PRICE STATISTICS (PRODUCER PRICE INDEX) — PARAGUAY (excerpts)* ### 3.5 Revision studies ### _cr14248 - 3.5 Revision studies ### Main findings on revision studies and practices - Studies and analyses of revisions and/or updates are not carried out to identify systematic bias or to determine the effects of substitution and other sources of errors/bias on the PPI. - The update of the PPI is not done at regular intervals. Prior to the 2011 exercise, the last two weight and basket revisions took place in 1995 and 1972. - The monthly PPI figures are generally not revised once produced; national accounts information provides the basis for the update of the PPI and a new revision is expected to be carried out following the next national accounts change of base year. - Major PPI weights revisions are not measured, assessed, and compared to previous PPI series in statistical publications (for example, monthly economic reports). - PPI figures are not revised after being produced; although there is no explicit statement on this issue, users are aware of this rule. - Consistent PPI time series exist since December 1995. Longer time series can be obtained from the DMI upon request. - The PPI is largely consistent with CPI results. ### Observations from the Data Quality Assessment Framework (May 2012) - Element 3.5 Revision studies: marked X with the comment: "No studies are conducted to identify if revisions entail any systematic bias or on the PPI." - Element 3.1 Source data: PPI revisions/updates are not carried out on a regular basis. Samples are not refreshed with a periodicity that is recommended by international standards. - Element 4.3 Revision policy and practice: marked X with the comment: "PPI weight and basket updates are not carried out at regular intervals and with time lags that exceed what is internationally recommended." ### Related serviceability and dissemination points relevant to revisions - The PPI is compiled on a monthly basis and usually available between 8-11 days after the end of the reference period; disseminated to all users up to five weeks after the end of the reference month. This is in accordance with the GDDS recommendation to disseminate monthly estimates within two months after the end of the reference period. - The PPI methodology is available on the CBP website; identification of major breaks in PPI series is available in the PPI methodology. - Major revisions represent opportunities to renew the indicator and to introduce methodological improvements; a policy for establishing a more regular update schedule should be defined and applied in future revisions. - Major PPI weights revisions are not measured, assessed, and compared to previous PPI series in statistical publications; PPI figures are not revised after being produced. ### Recommendations (explicit from source) - Assess the size and magnitude of substitution and other sources of bias in the next PPI update exercise. - Define the next revision of the PPI and plan a program for the regular update of this indicator, as recommended by international best practices in this matter. - (Related recommendation under serviceability) Consider the possibility of producing a press release/note on the PPI shortly after being finished (i.e., 8-11 days after the end of the reference period). The press release would be posted on the CBP website, and dissemination dates included in the already existent advance release calendar. *Source: _cr14248 - 3.5 Revision studies* ### 0.2 Resources ### 0.2 Resources ### 0.2.1 Staff, facilities, computing resources, and financing are commensurate with statistical programs - Finding: The number of staff is insufficient to compile GFS in accordance with the guidelines of the GFSM 2001. - Finding: Limited availability of staff is accentuated by personnel studying abroad and high staff turnover. - Finding: GFS are compiled by staff among other functions; no personnel are exclusively dedicated to statistical tasks. - Finding: Qualifications of staff are adequate; several staff has participated in GFS courses offered by the IMF. - Finding: More personnel need training in international methodologies, especially if (the) proposed transfer of the function to another unit of the MOF takes place. - Finding: Limited human resources are the main reason why the recommendations of the 2006 ROSC Data Module were not implemented. - Finding: Salary levels are low, though similar to other public entities. - Finding: There are informal, limited, measures in place to retain experienced staff. - Finding: Overall sufficient computing resources are allocated to statistical tasks; all staff has computers with necessary software and access to the Internet. - Finding: The MOF has a unit responsible for information and computing matters that provides anti-virus software and back-up facilities. - Finding: Physical facilities are adequate, but financing constraints prevent hiring of additional qualified personnel. - Recommendation: - Assign adequate human resources to compiling and disseminating GFS to the extent possible. ### 0.2.2 Measures to ensure efficient use of resources are implemented - Finding: The MOF conducts annual reviews of staff, which are taken into consideration for promotion. - Finding: Personnel are hired through a competitive process. - Finding: Supervisors are responsible for ensuring unit functions are performed satisfactorily and for training staff as needed. - Finding: There are no periodic reviews of work processes. - Finding: Expert assistance to evaluate statistical methodologies and compilation systems has been provided by international organizations. - Recommendation: - Institute regular reviews and systematic measures to ensure efficient use of the resources allocated to compiling GFS. ### 0.3 Relevance ### 0.3.1 The relevance and practical utility of existing statistics in meeting users’ needs are monitored - Finding: The MOF meets the information requirements established in the corresponding national legislation and partially meets the statistical needs of international organizations. - Finding: Other data users are not consulted about their information needs. - Finding: There is no structured or periodic process of consultation with users to review the usefulness of existing statistics and emerging data requirements. - Recommendation: - Establish a structured process of reviewing the usefulness of GFS to meet all user needs. ### 0.4 Other quality management ### 0.4.1 Processes are in place to focus on quality - Finding: The MOF is aware of the importance of quality as a key element of public trust; substantial resources have been allocated to the SIAF and today most public entities report information on line. - Finding: All MOF units use the same database, ensuring consistency in data sources. - Finding: Staff training is actively supported. - Finding: There are no externally recognized processes or activities that focus on quality currently in place. - Recommendation: - Institute formal processes to ensure data quality (for example, regular cross checking with specific alternative data sources, such as monetary and financial statistics). ### 0.4.2 Processes are in place to monitor the quality during the planning and implementation of the statistical program - Finding: There are no formal processes to assess and improve the quality of GFS, although some efforts are made (for example, investigation of the statistical discrepancy between the overall deficit/surplus calculated as revenues minus expenses and the financing of the deficit led to identification of reasons and measures to reduce its size). - Finding: Training of personnel in GFS methodology is actively pursued. - Finding: Monitoring processes mainly consist of supervisor revisions and cross-checking for internal consistency. - Finding: The SIAF has built-in checks to verify accuracy of data submitted and a single chart of accounts is used for all public units. - Finding: Training is provided on the SIAF to users of the system. - Finding: No formal or systematic assessment of the quality of the statistics compiled is undertaken. - Recommendation: - Institute formal processes to ensure the quality of statistical programs. ### 1. Assurances of integrity ### 1.1 Institutional Integrity - 1.1.1 Statistics are produced on an impartial basis - Finding: Civil Service Law Article 60 (item a) forbids government officials from using authority or influence to exert pressure on subordinates. - Finding: Although GFS compilation is not supported by a specific law or provisions, a culture of professionalism ensures they are compiled on an impartial basis. - Finding: Recruitment and promotion are based on an open competitive process; choice and tenure of managers are based on an independent process. - Finding: Formal and on-the-job training is provided; research and analysis are encouraged. - 1.1.2 Choices of sources and statistical techniques as well as decisions about dissemination are informed solely by statistical considerations - Finding: Choice of source data is based on data requirements; the SIAF was established by law and information provided is specified by legislation and entered online. - Finding: Decisions about data dissemination are not based exclusively on statistical considerations (examples: MOF discontinued in 2008 the dissemination of GFS for aggregates of government larger than budgetary central government and of a report explaining main statistical developments, and suspended since May 2013 the dissemination of subannual debt reports). - Finding: The MOF re-initiated the publication of the monthly and quarterly debt reports during the mission’s presence in the country. - Recommendation: - Disseminate GFS based strictly on statistical considerations. - 1.1.3 The appropriate statistical entity is entitled to comment on erroneous interpretation and misuse of statistics - Finding: The Press Department of the MOF monitors media coverage and, in coordination with technical areas, issues corrections and/or explanations as warranted. ### 1.2 Transparency - 1.2.1 The terms and conditions under which the statistics are collected, processed, and disseminated are available to the public - Finding: Terms and conditions for budget execution data are established in publicly available legislation; no equivalent information is available on compilation and dissemination of GFS. - Finding: A link between the MOF website and the IMF’s DSBB, where GDDS metadata are posted, was removed in 2008. - Recommendations: - Publicize the terms and conditions under which GFS are compiled and disseminated. - Update and maintain current the GDDS metadata posted on the IMF’s DSBB, and reestablish the link with the MOF website. - 1.2.2 Internal governmental access to statistics prior to their release is publicly identified - Finding: There is no prior access to statistics by officials outside the MOF. - Finding: Procedures for authorizing dissemination of GFS are internal and not made known to the public; the Under Secretary of Economy authorizes dissemination of GFS. - 1.2.3 Products of statistical agencies/units are clearly identified as such - Finding: All fiscal statistics disseminated by the MOF clearly identify the data-producing agency; attribution is provided in CBP publications. - 1.2.4 Advance notice is given of major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques - Finding: Advance notice of major methodological changes in fiscal statistics is provided to the public; these changes are usually incorporated in the Budget Law and related regulations. ### 1.3 Ethical standards - 1.3.1 Guidelines for staff behavior are in place and well known to the staff - Finding: Law 1626 Article 57 states responsibilities of civil servants; Article 60 prohibits specific misbehavior; Articles 67 and 69 list penalties including dismissal. - Finding: The MOF issued a Code of Ethics and a Code of Good Governance on February 2, 2012; and established an Ethics and Good Governance Committee. - Finding: The Code of Ethics presents ethical principles, values, and guidelines; the Code of Good Governance applies to the Minister and senior management and specifies policies for senior officials. ### 2. Methodological soundness ### 2.1 Concepts and definitions - 2.1.1 The overall structure in terms of concepts and definitions follows internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices - Finding: Compilation and dissemination of annual and sub-annual GFS at the national level does not follow the GFSM 2001 methodology, and no decision has been taken to adopt the methodology. - Finding: Compilation and dissemination of debt statistics does not follow the guidelines of the PSDSG 2011. - Finding: The authorities report annual GFS in GFSM 2001 format to the IMF’s Statistics Department for inclusion in the GFS Yearbook, but these data are not disseminated at the national level. - Recommendation: - Adopt the methodology of the GFSM 2001 and PSDSG 2011 to compile and disseminate GFS at the national level. Prepare a detailed migration plan and timetable to adopt the methodologies. ### 2.2 Scope - 2.2.1 The scope is broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices - Finding: Institutional structure of the general government sector and public sector is set out to facilitate understanding of scope and relationship to international standards. - Box 1: Public Sector (as per Budget Law) lists: - I. Central Administration Entities: 1. Legislature (3); 2. Executive (14); 3. Judiciary (6); 4. General Comptroller of the Republic; 5. Other State Entities (2) - II. Decentralized Entities: 1. Central Bank of Paraguay; 2. Regional Governments (17); 3. Autonomous and Autarkic Entities (23); 4. Public Social Security Entities (5); 5. Nonfinancial Public Enterprises (5); 6. Public Financial Enterprises (5); 7. National Universities (8) - Finding: There are 247 municipalities that are not included in the institutional structure because the Constitution grants them autonomy. - Finding: There is a non-autonomous pension fund within the MOF. - Finding: Four enterprises constituted as private enterprises, majority owned by the government, are not included under nonfinancial public enterprises. - Finding: Two binational hydroelectrical enterprises (Itaipú Binacional and Entidad Binacional Yacyretá) are not included under nonfinancial public enterprises; current legislation does not allow the MOF to collect data from these two binational enterprises. - Finding: In GFSM 2001 terms, the central administration (I.) constitutes the budgetary central government subsector; autonomous and autarkic entities (II.3) plus national universities (II.7) constitute extra-budgetary units/entities subsector. - Finding: Public social security entities (II.4) include only one social security fund according to international guidelines (the Social Prevention Institute); four other entities are autonomous pension funds that should be classified as units of the financial sector. - Finding: Regional governments (II.2) are currently treated as state governments in GFS reported for dissemination in the GFS Yearbook; upon closer examination they appear to be central government entities in the statistical sense. - Finding: Central government subsector according to GFSM 2001 guidelines is composed of the budgetary central government subsector, the extra-budgetary units subsector, the social security funds subsector, and the regional governments (in national terms: I+II.3+II.7+the Social Prevention Institute+II.2); general government sector is composed of the central government subsector plus the local governments subsector. - Finding: Nonfinancial public corporations subsector per GFSM 2001 is composed of nonfinancial public enterprises (II.5), plus the four public enterprises constituted as private enterprises, plus 50 percent of the two binational hydroelectrical enterprises. - Finding: Financial public corporations subsector is composed of the Central Bank of Paraguay (II.1), plus the financial public enterprises (II.6). - Finding: The public sector per GFSM 2001 is composed of the general government sector, plus the nonfinancial public corporations sector, plus the financial public corporations sector. - Finding: Institutional coverage of monthly GFS currently compiled and disseminated corresponds to the budgetary central government. - Finding: GFS are also compiled annually (with monthly breakdown) for broader levels of government (central government, nonfinancial public sector, public sector) but are not disseminated. - Finding: Coverage of these broader levels differs from GFSM 2001 sectorization guidelines. - Finding: GFS do not cover all economic flows and stocks to the GFSM 2001 standard specified in summary statements and tables (Statement of Government Operations, Statement of Other Economic Flows, and Balance Sheet); in particular they do not cover noncash flows and other economic flows. - Finding: Coverage of public debt data is limited relative to PSDSG 2011 summary statements and tables. - Finding: Definition of public debt does not include all public sector units; coverage of debt instruments is limited to debt securities and loans. - Finding: No information is available on short-term debt, debt by remaining maturity (except as reported to the IDB under the LAC Debt Initiative), net debt, and debt securities at market value. - Finding: Definition of public debt in Paraguay is given in Article 41 of Law 1535 and defines public debt as the outcome of the long-term borrowing operations of the State; no short-term borrowing is allowed except to meet temporary cash shortfalls (not considered public debt). - Finding: Short-term monetary regulatory bonds issued by the CBP are not considered public debt. - Finding: Public debt is defined as debt guaranteed by the Treasury, and not in terms of whether the borrower is a public institutional unit. - Finding: As a result, certain debt liabilities of public sector units are not included in the country’s public debt data, including: (i) debt of the municipalities, (ii) debt of the binational hydroelectrical enterprises, (iii) ANDE’s debt to nonresident banks, and (iv) debt owed by PETROPAR for oil imports from Venezuela. - Finding: The Financial Administration Modernization Law issued in 2013 allows the issuance of short-term Treasury securities, but its operating regulations have not been issued to date. - Finding: This definition of public debt is not in accordance with international standards, where it includes all short-term and long-term debt liabilities incurred by all public sector units. - Finding: The MOF disseminates on its website the following periodic reports which contain GFS: (i) Situación Financiera Administración Central (SITUFIN), (ii) Informe de las Finanzas Públicas del Paraguay, (iii) Coyuntura y Perspectivas Económicas, (iv) Informe Mensual- Informe de Finanzas Públicas, (v) Informe Financiero, (vi) Reporte Mensual de la Deuda Pública, (vi) Reporte Trimestral de la Deuda Pública, (vii) Informe Anual de la Deuda Pública, and (viii) Situación al Cierre del Cuatrimestre (de la Deuda de Gobiernos Municipales). - Finding: The monthly SITUFIN, prepared by the Directorate of Macro-Fiscal Policy, presents information in GFSM 1986 format and is the main data source to report information to the IMF’s Statistics Department for inclusion in the GFS Yearbook. - Finding: The MOF reports quarterly debt data to the IMF-World Bank’s PSDS database, the World Bank’s QEDS database, and the IDB’s LAC Debt Initiative database. - Finding: The CBP disseminates on its website the following periodic reports which contain GFS: (i) Informe Económico Mensual, (ii) Informe Económico Preliminar, (iii) Deuda Pública Financiera Externa Registrada en SIGADE, and (iv) Deuda Externa Total. - Recommendations: - Disseminate the GFS currently compiled for levels of government broader than budgetary central government. - Expand the coverage of flows and stocks of public units. - Define public debt for statistical purposes as all debt liabilities of public sector units, in accordance with international guidelines. *Source: _cr14248 - 0.2 Resources* ### 2.3 Classification/sectorization ### _cr14248 - 2.3 Classification/sectorization ### Classification/sectorization: summary of practices and issues - Definitions of subsectors (social security subsector, central government subsector, general government sector, nonfinancial public corporations subsector, public sector) are not consistent with GFSM 2001 guidelines. - GFS are compiled separately for subsectors but are not disseminated at the national level. - Classifications for revenue, expense, nonfinancial assets, financial assets, and debt do not follow GFSM 2001 and PSDSG 2011; they correspond closely to GFSM 1986 classifications (especially for revenues and expenditures), except for debt. - Public debt classification: - Current practice: classified as domestic or external based on a residence criterion and on whether payment of the debt can be demanded in the national territory. - International standard: external/domestic classification should be based solely on the residence criterion. - Definitions of direct, indirect, and guaranteed debt: - Direct public debt: debt contracted by the Treasury as the debtor. - Indirect public debt: debt contracted by other public or private units as debtors, which has the guarantee of the Treasury, duly authorized by law. - MOF definition of guaranteed debt: sum of indirect debt plus direct debt paid by units other than the Treasury (although the debtor is the Treasury). - International standard: guaranteed debt should be defined based on the debtor (this MOF definition is not in accordance with international standards). - Floating debt (“deuda flotante”): - Currently defined as the difference between expenditures “obligated” and expenditures transferred. - Figures reported under floating debt represent the change in the level of this debt between the beginning and the end of a given period. - Functionally approximates expenditures to a cash basis by partially adjusting for timing differences between recording of revenues and expenditures. - Remaining difference between overall surplus/deficit and financing (domestic financing, external financing, and changes in deposits) is denominated "difference in recording period" (term considered confusing; recommended to be called "statistical discrepancy"). - Floating debt is largely cleared by the end of the complementary period (February 28 of the following year); the remainder is reprogrammed into the following year's budget. - Historical note: Floating debt was previously defined as the difference between expenditures obligated and expenditures paid; the definition was changed to better reflect expenditures actually incurred by eliminating lag between fund availability and creditor collection. - Recommendations (classification/sectorization): - Define, for statistical purposes, the institutional sectors and subsectors of the general government sector and public sector in accordance with international guidelines. - Introduce the classification of flows and stocks recommended by the GFSM 2001 and PSDSG 2011. - Define external debt based solely on the residence criterion, in accordance with international standards. - Define guaranteed debt by debtor exclusively in accordance with international standards. - Replace the term “difference in recording period” by the term “statistical discrepancy”. ### Basis for recording: valuation, recording basis, and grossing/netting - Valuation of flows and stocks: - Not all flows and stocks are valued at market prices. - Cash transactions reflect actual market values on the transaction day. - Debt is recorded at face value and nominal value only. - Foreign currency transactions are converted to local currency using the average exchange rate reported daily by the CBP. - Recommendation (valuation): - Record all flows and stocks at market prices. - Recording basis: - GFS are compiled on a mixed basis: - Revenues: cash basis. - Expenditures: “obligated” (Spanish, “obligado”) basis. - Financing: cash basis and due-for-payment basis. - “Obligado” is a stage in the expenditure process (follows commitment, precedes payment) that depends on the existence of a cash plan; it is not a proper time of recording (e.g., accrual, commitment, or cash). - Treasury can defer cash plans and delay transfers based on availability of funds. - Debt transactions are recorded on a cash basis. - No current implementation of a move to accrual/accounting/budgeting basis; arrangements are not in place to convert transactions to an accrual basis. - Recommendation (recording basis): - Introduce recording of flows and stocks on an accrual basis, as a complement to recording them on a cash basis. - Grossing/netting: - Most transactions shown on a gross basis, except for amortization/borrowing. - Corrective transactions are not netted against the original transactions (e.g., tax refunds are treated as an expense). - Recommendation (grossing/netting): - Net corrective transactions against the original transactions. ### Accuracy and reliability: sources, compilation, validation, and revisions - Source data coverage and systems: - Law No. 1535 establishes the SIAF within the MOF; mandatory for all public entities except municipalities and public corporations constituted as private enterprises (these excluded entities still provide information to the MOF but it is not entered into the system). - SICO: module of SIAF providing accounting information for most public units in local currency (guaraníes); binational hydroelectrical enterprises do not provide information. - Directorate of Accounting issues plan of accounts, chart of accounts, and budgetary classifications to standardize SICO entries. - Debt information recorded in SIGADE and linked to SIAF by an inter-phase; SIGADE records public debt as defined by national legislation (debt with Treasury guarantee). Debt without Treasury guarantee is excluded (e.g., binational hydroelectrical enterprises' debt, electricity corporation debt to banks abroad, oil corporation debt to a foreign supplier). - Municipal debt information is available and disseminated separately from public debt. - Additional sources: Treasury System (SITE) for floating debt; CBP for deposits. - Source data adequacy: - SICO information aligns broadly with GFSM 1986; scope, time of recording, and valuation are insufficient for GFSM 2001 GFS compilation. - Missing information: noncash flows and other economic flows; no accrual basis collection; market values not used for all flows and stocks. - Budget classifications can be bridged to GFSM 2001 classifications; detail allows consolidation of government levels. - Recommendation (source data): - Develop data sources that approximate definitions, scope, classifications, valuation, and time of recording required by current international methodologies. - Timeliness of source data: - Majority of public units connected to SICO online. - Municipalities and public corporations constituted as private enterprises provide monthly information every four months in hard copy. - Municipalities require certification of compliance to receive Treasury transfers. - SIGADE timeliness adequate for debt statistics. - Recommendation (timeliness): - Develop quarterly data sources to compile GFS for municipalities and public corporations constituted as private enterprises, preferably in electronic format. - Assessment and validation of source data: - Some verification procedures exist; data inconsistencies and out-of-trend values investigated. - Source data are partially assessed against different data sources but not fully or regularly. - Recommendation (assessment): - Assess source data regularly against other related data sources, in particular monetary and financial statistics. - Compilation and statistical techniques: - Some manual data entry remains, posing error risk. - Coverage is complete so no need to estimate missing data. - Data are preliminary until accounts are closed on February 28 of the following year; preliminary notation is removed afterwards. - Compilation procedures are not fully documented and there is no link between MOF website and IMF’s DSSB for GDDS metadata access. - Discrepancies between subannual and annual data are eliminated. - Recommendations (compilation): - Eliminate manual data entry to the extent possible. - Document fully compilation procedures. - Validation of intermediate data and outputs: - Intermediate results partially checked against other data; budgetary data validated against accounting records; bank statements reconciled daily against Treasury records. - No cross-checking with the CBP on changes in deposits (Treasury lacks its own deposit data). - Financing and debt stock data are not reconciled with each other or against balance of payments and international investment position statistics. - Recommendations (validation): - Validate intermediate results to the extent possible. - Develop data for deposits based on Treasury/MOF records. - Statistical discrepancies: - Flows are not reconciled with corresponding stock data, except narrowly for debt (loans plus debt securities). - Procedures are not in place to investigate classification/sectorization errors as a source of discrepancies. - Recommendations (discrepancies): - Assess statistical discrepancies in intermediate data on a regular basis. - Compare statistical outputs among national compilers on a regular basis. - Revisions and revision studies: - Differences between preliminary and final data are investigated and used to make adjustments, but no formal studies are conducted and findings are not adequately documented. - Recommendation (revisions): - Document the revisions to GFS and the reasons for the revisions. ### Serviceability: periodicity, timeliness, and consistency - Periodicity: - Paraguay participates in the GDDS (recommends quarterly central government operations and debt). - Paraguay disseminates central administration (budgetary central government) operations monthly and central government debt monthly, meeting GDDS periodicity recommendations. - GDDS encourages annual general government operations; Paraguay does not disseminate general government operations. - GDDS encourages monthly interest payments and quarterly government guaranteed debt; Paraguay meets these periodicity recommendations for the latter two components. - Timeliness: - GDDS recommends maximum lag of one quarter for central government operations and one-to-two quarters for central government debt. - Paraguay disseminates central administration operations with a lag of 3 weeks (except December, lag of two months) and central government debt with a lag of less than a month, meeting GDDS timeliness recommendations. - For general government cash flow/operations GDDS encourages lag of 6 to 9 months; Paraguay does not disseminate general government operations. - Consistency within dataset: - Concepts, definitions, and classifications for subannual and annual GFS are the same. - Sum of quarterly GFS matches annual GFS. - Overall deficit/surplus and financing data are not consistent due to differing times of recording, complementary period for expenses, and other factors. - Flows and stocks of nonfinancial and financial assets/liabilities are only partially reconcilable (only for public debt). - Recommendation (consistency): - Investigate more fully the discrepancy between the overall surplus/deficit and financing. - Time series consistency: - Consistent time series available for over ten years. - Historical series reconstructed when major classification changes occurred. - Cross-dataset consistency: - Some inconsistencies between GFS and national accounts due to different sector classification of four employer social insurance schemes and inclusion/exclusion of binational hydroelectrical enterprises and four nonfinancial public corporations constituted as private enterprises. - GFS and BOP use SIGADE for debt and grants, but no formal verification/reconciliation between MOF and CBP. - GFS are not reconciled with monetary statistics on a regular basis and use different times of recording. - External debt components in GFS are reconcilable with corresponding debt stocks. - MOF and CBP external debt dissemination are reconcilable because CBP identifies the SIGADE-derived amount it adds to other components to obtain total external debt according to international standards. - Recommendation (cross-dataset reconciliation): - Reconcile GFS with other macroeconomic statistics compiled by the CBP on a regular basis. - Revision policy and practice: - Main revision: replacement of preliminary data by final data at the end of the budget cycle; timing known and stable but not explicitly made public. - Corrections occur as errors/omissions detected but are not made known to the public. - Users are informed when data are preliminary via notation; the notation is removed when figures become final. - Recommendations (revision transparency): - Publicize revision cycle for GFS. - No formal studies or public dissemination of analyses of revisions are made despite internal investigations. ### Accessibility: presentation and dissemination practices - GFS are disseminated according to the standard components of the GFSM 1986 and not the GFSM 2001. *Source: _cr14248 - 2.3 Classification/sectorization (PDF chapter/section).* ### 2001. However, GFS are reported in GFSM 2001 format for inclusion in the GFS Yearbook. The ### _cr14248 - 2001. However, GFS are reported in GFSM 2001 format for inclusion in the GFS Yearbook. The ### Dissemination (GFS) - Current practice: GFS are reported in GFSM 2001 format for inclusion in the GFS Yearbook. Statistics are disseminated in a clear manner, but commentaries on current period developments are not provided. The MOF website is not user friendly; access to statistics is not easy. - Format and media: - GFS are disseminated in pdf format, which does not facilitate re-dissemination. - Current statistics cannot be accessed through an electronic database. - GFS are reported to the IMF’s Statistics Department in electronic form for publication in the GFS Yearbook. - Release practice: - GFS are not released according to a preannounced schedule; however, they do follow a regular dissemination cycle. - GFS are released simultaneously to all users. - Availability on request: - Non-published, nonconfidential, disaggregated data are provided upon request. - The availability of additional statistics and the procedures for obtaining them are not made known. - Recommendations: - Disseminate GFS in accordance with the standard components of the GFSM 2001 and the PSDSG 2011. - Disseminate the GFS Yearbook submission in the MOF’s website. - Disseminate commentaries on current period developments. - Improve MOF website to facilitate access to fiscal statistics. - Disseminate GFS in a more user friendly format (for example, Excel files). - Provide access to GFS through an electronic database. - Release GFS according to a preannounced schedule. - Inform the general public about the availability of additional statistics and the procedures for obtaining them. ### Metadata accessibility (GFS) - Current practice: - No GFS metadata are provided in the MOF website and there is no link to the GDDS metadata available on the IMF’s Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB). - The metadata on the DSBB was last updated in 2004. - Metadata for budget execution data are largely contained in publicly available laws and regulations. - Recommendations: - Disseminate detailed metadata for GFS on the MOF website. - Update GDDS metadata on the IMF’s DSBB, and establish link to the metadata on the MOF website. - Levels of detail: - The GDDS metadata are adequate for the intended audience. - General information on budget execution data is available on the MOF website. ### Assistance to users (GFS) - Contact points and assistance: - There is a general contact point for the Under Secretariat of Economy on the MOF website. An e-mail address is provided for users to direct their queries. - For public debt the MOF website has an e-mail address (dgcdp@hacienda.gov.py) for users to send queries. This address also appears in all debt reports. - Knowledgeable assistance is provided to users that request it. - No separate contact points for enquiries to specific areas or about statistics are provided. Assistance to users is monitored. - Publications and charges: - There is no single list of MOF publications. Users must search by Under Secretariat and Directorate. - All MOF publications are provided free of charge. - Recommendations: - Publicize a contact point for GFS. - Provide a single list of all MOF publications. ### Data Quality Assessment Framework (May 2012) — Summary of Results for Government Finance Statistics (Compiling Agency: Ministry of Finance) - Key to symbols: NA = Not Applicable; O = Practice Observed; LO = Practice Largely Observed; LNO = Practice Largely Not Observed; NO = Practice Not Observed; GDDS = Complies with GDDS Criteria. - Prerequisites of quality: - 0.1 Legal and institutional environment: X — Responsibility for compiling and disseminating GFS is not assigned to any entity or unit. - 0.2 Resources: X — Staff are insufficient to compile GFS. - 0.3 Relevance: X — Data needs from general public users are not identified. - 0.4 Other quality management: X — No formal processes to assess data quality. - Assurances of integrity: - 1.1 Institutional integrity: X — Data dissemination is not based solely on statistical considerations. - 1.2 Transparency: X - 1.3 Ethical standards: X - Methodological soundness: - 2.1 Concepts and definitions: X — GFS compilation and dissemination are not based on GFSM 2001 and PSDSG 2011. There is no migration plan to current methodologies. - 2.2 Scope: X — GFS covers only budgetary central government. Data are available for other levels of government, but are not disseminated. Coverage of debt data is partial. - 2.3 Classification/sectorization: X — The definition of the social security funds and nonfinancial public sector does not follow international standards. GFSM 2001 and PSDSG 2011 classifications are not followed. - 2.4 Basis for recording: X — Not all flows and stocks are valued at market prices. Recording is not on an accrual basis. - Accuracy and reliability: - 3.1 Source data: X — Source data to compile GFS are not adequate according to international standards in terms of scope, time of recording, and valuation. - 3.2 Assessment of source data: X — Source data are not regularly assessed against other related data sources. - 3.3 Statistical techniques: X — Some data are entered manually. Compilation procedures are not fully documented. - 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs: X — Intermediate results and discrepancies in statistical outputs need to be investigated and compared to a greater extent and on a regular basis. - 3.5 Revision studies: X — No formal studies of data revisions. Adequate documentation of revisions is not maintained. - Serviceability: - 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness: X - 4.2 Consistency: X — The overall deficit/surplus and financing are not consistent. GFS are not fully reconciled with other macroeconomic datasets on a regular basis. - 4.3 Revision policy and practice: X — No formal studies of data revisions are conducted. - Accessibility: - 5.1 Data accessibility: X — GFS are not disseminated according to GFSM 2001 standard components. No commentaries on current period developments are provided. GFS are not disseminated in user friendly formats, or according to a preannounced schedule. - 5.2 Metadata accessibility: X — No metadata are available on the MOF website, and there is no link to the GDDS metadata posted on the IMF’s DSBB. GDDS metadata were last updated in 2004. - 5.3 Assistance to users: X — No specific contact point for GFS. No single list of MOF publications. ### Monetary Statistics — Prerequisites of quality and legal/institutional arrangements - Legal basis and responsibilities: - Law 489/95, Organic Law of the Central Bank of Paraguay (CBP): Article 80, Article 81, Article 82 specify CBP powers to collect data and produce monetary and financial statistics. - Law 861/96 General on Banks, Finance Companies, and Other Credit Institutions: Article 106 requires the Superintendence of Banks (SB) to publish, at least on a quarterly basis, information on the financial situation of entities of the financial system. - The Monetary and Financial Studies Department (DEMF) within the Office of the General Deputy Manager Office for Monetary Policy (SGGPM) is in charge of producing monetary statistics. The Monetary Studies Division (DEM) produces monetary accounts on the basis of consolidated balance sheets. - Note: A new organizational chart introduced in mid-2013 creates the SGGPM with two Manager Offices; reorganization still in implementation. - Data sharing and coordination: - Different CBP departments interact in compiling monetary statistics: SB aggregates supervisory data and transmits aggregated data electronically to the DEM; the GCF transmits end-of-month trial balances electronically to the DEM. - DEM receives additional information from the Office of the Manager of Markets and the Payment System Department (DSP). - Authorized DEM staff have password-protected access to servers but only to aggregated data. - Gaps: - CBP still needs a formal exchange of information with the National Institute of Cooperatives (INCOOP) to receive monthly data of credit unions; credit unions represent around 15 percent of the total deposits of the system. - The Superintendence of Insurance (SS) does not regularly transmit data on insurance corporations to the DEM; previous IMF TA recommended compiling the OFC survey including insurance corporations. - Data transmission from the Ministry of Finance (MOF) to the SGGPM is not adequate; data sharing is irregular and in several occasions the MOF stopped transmitting available fiscal data. - Confidentiality and access: - DEM receives only aggregated data of ODCs from the SB; disseminated tables show only aggregated figures. - Law 489/95 articles guarantee confidentiality of information reported to the CBP (Article 80, Article 82, Article 6). - CBP Information Security Regulation (Board’s Resolution N° 5 of July 1997) and Resolution N° 28 (April 2013) aim at ISO/EIC 27001 security management. - Access to electronically stored data is restricted to authorized personnel; data backups and storage practices described. - Retention: annual balance sheets kept during five years, monthly balance sheets preserved during one year; after this period, back-up magnetic bands are overwritten if needed. - Reporting mandates and compliance: - Article 55 of Law 861/96: ten calendar days time lag for commercial banks and finance companies to report balance sheets to the SB; reports transmitted electronically. - Article 38: President and board members responsible for non-provision or false information. - Articles 88, 89, 90 of Law 489/95 define sanctions for non-reporting, including fines measured in minimum wages. - In practice, ODCs report regularly to the SB within the prescribed time frame. ### Monetary Statistics — Resources - Staffing and capacity: - DEMF has a total of 14 staff distributed within its four divisions and the front office. - Within the DEMF, the DEM has a permanent plant of five staff, but two of them are currently overseas pursuing post-graduate studies. - The DEM has two sections, Monetary Programming and Monetary Statistics; only one person works full-time in the Monetary Statistics section. - Two other divisions of the DEFM, each with only one staff, also work with data related to monetary statistics: the Financial Markets and the Fiscal Statistics divisions. - Staff qualifications: university degree with post-graduate studies; three have a Masters degree. Except two persons with only three years of experience, the rest have worked continuously at the DEMF for between six and more than 20 years. - Training: Four staff participated in the IMF’s Monetary and Financial Statistical course; others attended courses from ECLAC and CEMLA. - Staff turnover: During the last four years, eleven persons left the DEMF to work in other areas of the CBP. - IT and productivity: - Computer resources are adequate: personal computers, MS Office, econometric packages, in-house SQL software, broadband Internet. - Completion in early 2007 of the Integrated System of Economic and Financial Information (SIEF) improved compilation efficiency by replacing hardcopies and manual entry with electronic access and automatic processing. - Constraints and recommendation: - Technological advances increased productivity, but reduction in personnel and staff migration stretch human resources thin; likely insufficient for adequate data quality controls and new tasks. - Recommendation: Evaluation by CBP management of the adequacy of the current staff resources to carry on all the tasks related with the compilation and dissemination of monetary statistics in line with international standards. *International Monetary Fund — PARAGUAY, GOVERNMENT FINANCE STATISTICS / MONETARY STATISTICS (extracted content)* ### 0.3 Relevance ### _cr14248 - 0.3 Relevance ### 0.3 Relevance — monitoring and user engagement - The relevance and practical utility of existing statistics in meeting users’ needs are monitored. - There is not a formal and structured process of consultation with monetary data providers and users. - The DEM receives feedback from ODCs and users and takes into account comments and suggestions to improve compilation and dissemination. - At users’ request, the DEM has: - modified some tables; - posted time series on the CBP website in an Excel format. - The IMF technical assistance has been another source of monitoring the relevance of monetary statistics. - An ongoing project to create a data warehouse will allow users to access stored data online and tailor queries to their needs; the project is foreseen to be completed by mid-2014. ### 0.4 Other quality management — institutional culture and processes - Processes are in place to focus on quality: - CBP mission statement: “an independent institution that develops an efficient and believable performance, based on the excellence of its values and talents, to be recognized at the national and international level.” - DEMF staff are aware of the importance of quality and have sought technical assistance from the IMF and other international organizations. - Management encourages staff to participate in relevant courses and seminars, especially those organized by the IMF. - Timeliness versus accuracy: management and staff are aware of trade-offs, though timeliness is less relevant for monetary statistics, which are balance-sheet based and of a definite nature. - Processes to monitor quality during planning and implementation: - The CBP does not have an established process of systematically monitoring the quality of the statistical program. - For external advice on monetary statistics, the CBP relies almost exclusively on IMF technical assistance. - There is no advisory board within or outside the CBP to control accuracy, timeliness, scope, and adherence to international standards. - The last review of the quality of compiling monetary (and other macroeconomic) statistics was the 2006 ROSC Data Module mission. - The CBP has not implemented formal processes to deal with quality considerations in planning the statistical program. - Recommendation: - Introduce processes to systematically monitor the quality of monetary statistics during the planning and implementation of the statistical programs. ### 1 Assurances of integrity — institutional and dissemination safeguards - 1.1 Institutional integrity: - Statistics are produced on an impartial basis: - Article 1 of Law 489/95: CBP is a self-ruling technical organism with managerial and patrimonial autarky. - Article 47, Law 1626/00 and Article 18 of the Personnel Statute: public employees become permanent after two years, protecting against undue pressures. - Professionalism is guaranteed and promoted in the Personnel Statute and manuals of functions. - Choices of data sources and statistical techniques are informed by statistical considerations: - Source data: balance sheets of the 16 commercial banks, the 11 finance companies, and the CBP. - Other financial statistics (e.g., interest rates) are produced using responses from all institutions. - DEM follows MFSM and MFSCG methodology and migrated to standardized report forms (SRFs) in 2007. - Dissemination follows established internal procedures and deadlines (not publicly announced) and is not hampered by other government agencies. - CBP can comment on erroneous interpretation and misuse of statistics: - CBP monitors monetary data in the press and comments via the SGGPM; no recent cases of misinterpretation were noted. - 1.2 Transparency: - Paraguay participates in the IMF’s GDDS; metadata on monetary statistics are on the IMF’s DSBB; CBP website links to DSBB. - Law 489/95 is posted on the CBP website but legal terms/conditions are not systematically presented to the public. - Informe Económico (monthly, posted on CBP website) contains explanatory notes on compilation terms and conditions. - Internal governmental access prior to release: - Informe Económico is sent for information to the President and the Board before posting. - DEMF sends a daily monetary report to the CBP President, Board members, other authorities, the Minister of Finance, the IMF, the World Bank, and AFD; the general public is not aware of this early access. - Products are clearly identified: - Informe Económico front page identifies the product as SGGPM with CBP logo; all tables contain source and producing unit. - CBP does not require attribution when its statistics/comments are reproduced; staff regularly find near-textual reproductions in media without citation. - Advance notice of major methodological change: - Advance notice is not given to the public when there are major methodological changes (very infrequent). - When DEM revised data for methodological changes, a note explained the break; press conferences have been called when needed. - A methodological expansion of the ODC survey to include largest credit unions would be a good opportunity to inform the public in advance. - 1.3 Ethical standards: - Law 1626/00 provides legal framework for public employees’ rights, obligations, incompatibilities. - CBP Personnel Statute (2013) contains ethical rules and prohibitions (arts. 37-56). - Information Security Regulations establish conduct rules to minimize human error, theft, fraud, misuse. - CBP Code of Ethics: approved July 2008, expanded July 2013; covers mutual respect, honesty, loyalty, confidentiality, efficiency, conflicts, ethics committee; distributed to staff who must acknowledge receipt. - New staff receive a one-week induction seminar; in 2013 staff attended compulsory online remote training with evaluations on Code of Ethics and Personnel Statute. ### 2 Methodological soundness — concepts, scope, classification, and recording - 2.1 Concepts and definitions: - Overall framework follows internationally accepted standards and guidelines (MFSM and MFSCG). - With IMF technical assistance, DEM resolved discrepancies and migrated to SRFs in 2007. - DC survey consolidates central bank survey with ODC survey. - Main monetary and credit aggregates identified: - (1) monetary base (currency issued plus commercial banks’ deposits in national currency and finance companies’ reserve deposits in national currency at the CBP); - (2) M1 (currency outside banks plus current account deposits in national currency of the private sector); - (3) M2 (M1 plus savings deposits, term deposits, and savings deposits certificates of the private sector, all in national currency); - (4) M3 (M2 plus foreign currency deposits of the private sector); - (5) CBP’s net international reserve assets; - (6) central government’s deposits with the CBP and CBP’s credit to the central government; - (7) CBP’s credit to the ODC sector and ODC sector’s deposits with the CBP; - (8) ODCs’ credit to the private sector. - 2.2 Scope: - At end-January 2014, Paraguay’s DC sector comprised the CBP, 16 commercial banks, 11 finance companies, and around 200 credit unions. - Commercial banks and finance companies submit consolidated balance sheets monthly to the SB via the Financial Communication Network; SB transmits aggregated balance sheets to the DEM for the ODC survey. - Central bank survey prepared from the CBP’s end-of-month trial balance submitted by the GCF to the DEM. - Credit unions: - Rapid growth in the 1990s; currently account for around 15 percent of deposits of the ODC sector. - Not supervised by the CBP but by INCOOP; therefore, they do not report to the SB. - DEM is receiving data from the 27 largest credit unions (Type A) from INCOOP. - Since December 2008, DEM includes their accounts in the ODC aggregated balance sheet submitted to the IMF’s Statistics Department for IFS publication. - Credit unions’ data are missing from monetary statistics published in Informe Económico, a significant shortcoming in coverage. - Reasons for omission: lack of formal regular data transmission from INCOOP to DEM and CBP doubts about credit unions’ data quality. - Other financial corporations (OFCs): - May 2012 DQAF: “consideration must be given to the Financial Corporations Survey, when relevant.” - Main OFC subsector: 33 insurance corporations with total assets around US$ 100 million, controlled by the Superintendence of Insurance (SS) within the CBP. - Other OFC components and assets at end-2013: - AFD (second-tier state bank) with assets around US$ 300 million; - two state development funds (Fondo Ganadero and Crédito Agrícola de Habilitación) with combined assets around US$ 75 million; - one housing development fund (SENAVITAT); - three second-tier credit union centrals; - five autonomous pension funds and two private pension funds. - DEM does not receive data from these institutions and does not compile an OFC survey. - Aggregated total assets of the OFC sector represent a little less than five percent of total assets of the ODC sector. - Recommendations: - Expand the coverage of monetary statistics published in Informe Económico with data of Type A credit unions. - Collect data from insurance corporations, the AFD, and other relevant financial intermediaries and start compiling an OFC survey. - Footnotes from source: - Type A credit unions are those with total assets above US$ 10 million. It is expected that four new credit unions will be graduated to Type A in 2014. - Three STA technical assistance missions supported compilation of credit unions’ data, finding them adequate for inclusion in the ODC survey. - 2.3 Classification/sectorization: - Sectorization improved after the 1995 introduction of a common chart of accounts for commercial banks and finance companies, which follows international accounting standards and permits classification consistent with MFSM and MFSCG. - Financial instruments classified by type, maturity, and currency; account holders separated into residents and nonresidents per BPM6 principles. - Shortcomings: - Lack of separate identification among resident nonfinancial corporations, households, and NPISHs: chart of accounts provides only “Other resident sectors” combining all three subsectors. This does not affect net domestic credit but will be problematic when producing financial accounts. - Lack of sectorization of accrued interest by ODCs: accrued interest is not reported together with its underlying instrument by ODCs, forcing DEM to impute accrued interest across instruments and sectors. - Deposits of two binational hydroelectrical enterprises (Itaipú and Yacyretá) are classified as liabilities to nonresidents, though in 2012 CBP revised treatment: they are residents for the portion that belongs to each country (one half resident, one half nonresident). Practically, deposits should be classified as deposits of resident nonfinancial public corporations. - Recommendations: - Modify the chart of accounts of commercial banks and finance companies to allow separate identification of accounts of other nonfinancial corporations and households (including NPISHs). - Reclassify the deposit of the binational hydroelectrical enterprises from nonresidents’ deposits (excluded from broad money) to deposits of nonfinancial public corporations (included in broad money). - 2.4 Basis for recording: - 2.4.1 Market prices: - Foreign-currency-denominated assets/liabilities converted first into U.S. dollars, then into local currency using an “accounting” exchange rate (average of the buying exchange rates at the closing of the previous day). - Gold holdings valued at international market prices and converted using the accounting exchange rate. - SDR holdings and IMF accounts denominated in SDRs revalued by the GCF once a year in April when IMF’s Finance Department provides exchange rates. - When compiling the monthly central bank survey, DEM adjusts SDR balances using end-of-month exchange rate provided by IMF’s Statistics Department. - Securities and other instruments are valued at market prices or fair values by CBP and ODCs. - Shares of BLADEX held by CBP are valued at 90 percent of the quotation price of ordinary shares Class E at the end of the financial year. - 2.4.2 Accrual recording: - CBP and ODCs record on an accrual basis. - Accrued interest is reported together with its underlying instrument in CBP’s trial balance, but not disaggregated by instrument or sector in commercial banks’ and finance companies’ balance sheets. - DEM allocates accrued interest based on outstanding balances when compiling monetary statistics. - 2.4.3 Grossing/netting procedures: - CBP and ODC assets and liabilities are presented gross, with no netting of claims against liabilities. - Overdrafts are recorded as loans; loans recorded gross with provisions for loan losses as a negative asset; DEM reclassifies provisions as liabilities when compiling surveys. - CBP long-term agreement with IFC involving foreign currency swaps is recorded by GCF as notional loan in national currency and simultaneous foreign currency loan received; this treatment augments assets and liabilities and runs contrary to recommendation to record swaps as purchasing/selling currencies with a simultaneous forward contract. - For monetary statistics, DEM records only accrued interest on both legs of the swap contract as financial derivatives on asset and liability sides, considered acceptable. - When producing the “banking survey,” DEM consolidates commercial banks’ accounts in other items net; it also produces a “nonmonetary depository corporations” survey consolidating finance companies; DEM then consolidates both into an ODC survey, netting accounts of commercial banks and finance companies. *Source: _cr14248 - 0.3 Relevance* ### 3. Accuracy and reliability ### _cr14248 - 3. Accuracy and reliability ### 3.1 Source data - Source data are obtained from comprehensive data collection programs that take into account country-specific conditions. - Commercial banks and finance companies transmit electronically their balance sheets to the SB on a weekly basis, and on monthly basis ten calendar days after the end of the reference month. - A 12-digit code identifies each account, indicating its grouping in the balance sheet, the chapters within each group, liquidity, risk, residency, and subaccounts. - The accompanying manual of accounts contains detailed instructions on the use and recording of each account. - CBP issued two circulars providing ODCs with the definition of resident and nonresident units (SG Nº 69/2001) and a comprehensive list of the nonfinancial public sector (SG Nº 70/2001); no new explanatory documents regarding monetary statistics has been issued since then. - The chart of accounts has been amended, as needed, to reflect developments in the market. - After receiving electronic submissions, the SB performs more than 100 automatic consistency checks (detections of incorrect codes, missing information, differences between assets and liabilities, incorrect additions, etc.). If submitted data fail any of these checks, they are returned to reporting institutions for revision. - Complete and correct data must be received by the 10th calendar day after the end of the reference month. - The CBP’s financial statements are audited by an international accounting firm (which rotates every year, although legally it can be retained up to two years), by internal auditors, and by the General Comptroller of the Republic. - The 2012 annual balance sheet was approved by external auditors with an unqualified opinion, although highlighting the then ongoing process to solve the dispute for the debt of the MOF to the CBP. - Note on debt: "This debt covered not only central government debt, but also liabilities of financial institutions in liquidation, of local governments, and of public nonfinancial corporations. It was converted in December 2012 into a perpetuity bond in national currency." ### 3.1.2 Fit to definitions, scope, sectorization, valuation, time of recording - The DC survey is based on actual accounting records of the CBP and the ODCs (except for lack of coverage of credit unions mentioned in item 2.2.1). - No sampling or estimations are employed by the DEM. - The structure of the balance sheet permits adequate sectorization and identification of resident and nonresident accounts (except for the distinction within other resident sectors mentioned in item 2.3.1). ### 3.1.3 Timeliness of source data - The GCF prepares the CBP’s trial balance on a daily basis and transmits electronically the end-of-month trial balance to the DEM. - The SB receives all balance sheets from commercial banks and finance companies within ten days after the end of the reference month, and five days later transmits electronically the aggregated balance sheets to the DEM, allowing to finish the compilation process 20 days after the end of the reference month. ### 3.2 Assessment of source data - In addition to automatic controls by the SB on individual balance sheets, the DEM performs visual checks on aggregated balance sheets to detect significant month-to-month changes or confirm capture of new instruments/institutions. - When DEM detects inconsistencies in aggregated data, it investigates first with the SB and, if needed, contacts the corresponding institution. - The DEM does not have access to supplemental information to check consistency of balance sheet data against supplemental information, nor does it have access to individual balance sheets; unjustified movements at individual institution level may be hidden by errors in other institutions. - DEM staff are comfortable about the quality of ODC-reported data, although they do not pay regular visits to institutions to verify on-site accuracy of submitted information. ### 3.3 Statistical techniques - Aggregated balance sheets of the ODCs and the CBP’s balance sheet are inputted electronically and corresponding tables are generated automatically, substantially reducing chances of error. - Data reported by ODCs are complete and the DEM does not estimate missing information. - Some automatic checks by the SB focus on conversion of foreign-currency-denominated assets and liabilities into local currency. - The DEM does not seasonally adjust the monetary series. ### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs - International reserves and foreign assets and liabilities of the CBP are systematically checked against balance of payments (BOP) data. - Main source of discrepancy between the CBP and the MOF regarding credit to government was non-recognition by the MOF of the CBP’s claim for the Treasury Bonds Law 1093/97; this problem was eliminated in December 2012 when central government consolidated all its debt with the CBP through issuance of a perpetual bond. - DEM does not check data reported by banks on government securities holdings because sale of government securities is open to the general public through the stock exchange. - At an aggregated level, balance sheet data of the CBP are cross-checked with ODC data. - Because the DEM does not receive individual banks’ data, it cannot check consistency of interbank positions. - Recommendation: - Set up a practice of individual ODCs’ data transmission from the SB to the DEM, so the latter can check the consistency of interbank positions and with the CBP’s accounting records. - When DEM observes important changes in aggregated data of ODCs, it contacts SB to investigate; DEM contacts institutions only in exceptional cases. - DEM follows only informal, visual procedures to check accuracy of ODC data and detect large/unusual movements. - DEM does not keep a file documenting most common detected mistakes. - Last seminars/training: after introduction of new chart of accounts in 1995 and in 2001; no regular courses organized thereafter to instruct banks/finance companies on reporting to CBP. ### 3.5 Revision studies - Main source of revision of monetary data was IMF technical assistance through MFS missions. - DEM implemented most mission recommendations and migrated to the SRFs in 2007. - Data were revised from January 1995 onwards and the revision in the time series was indicated in explanatory notes that accompany the tables of Informe Económico. - DEM does not perform studies and analyses of revisions (see also 4.3.3). ### 4. Serviceability — 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness - Central bank survey, monetary aggregates, private sector and total deposits, credit to the private sector, and interest rates are published monthly in Informe Económico (available in Spanish through the CBP website). - Although internally compiled, the CBP does not disseminate the ODC and the DC surveys (these are not published because they may present figures different from those disseminated by the SB). - Dissemination of a DC survey is a requisite of the GDDS. - Monetary statistics, except ODC and DC surveys, are disseminated with less than a one-month lag through Informe Económico. - Informe Económico is posted on the CBP website 25 days after the end of the reference month. - Tables of the statistical annex of Informe Económico with CBP data are posted on the CBP website ten days after the end of the reference month. - Recommendation: - Includes tables with the ODC and the DC surveys in Informe Económico. ### 4.2 Consistency - Monetary statistics are internally consistent, including the position of the CBP vis-à-vis commercial banks and the aggregated interbank position. - Time series published in Informe Económico are consistent over time; revisions following IMF missions’ recommendations were highlighted in explanatory notes. - International reserves from CBP balance sheet are consistent with BOP data. - It was not possible to check consistency of foreign assets and liabilities reported by ODCs with BOP data because BOP includes assets and liabilities of other resident economic sectors. - Banking sector positions in the IIP have not been consistent with MFS since 2011, with the IIP underestimating deposits of nonresidents with ODCs by around 30 to 45 percent, depending on the reference period. - Main discrepancy between monetary and GFS on credit to government was eliminated in December 2012 through issuance of a perpetual bond. - Flow data on deposits of the budgetary central government are compiled from CBP’s monetary data, so no discrepancies exist there. - Discrepancies exist in government deposits due to MOF’s misclassification of four pension funds as part of the central government, instead as of OFCs. ### 4.3 Revision policy and practice - Monetary data published in Informe Económico are final and only exceptionally subject to revision. - The annual balance sheet of the CBP is published on a preliminary basis and subject to revisions. - Preliminary data are highlighted in the tables of the statistical annex of Informe Económico through asterisks. - Revised data are not identified; when important revisions took place due to errors, a note was included indicating the revisions but not the reasons. - DEM does not perform studies and analyses of revisions. ### 5. Accessibility — 5.1 Data accessibility - Monetary statistics are disseminated through CBP’s Informe Económico, posted on the CBP website; tables of the statistical annex are available in Excel format. - Comprehensive explanatory notes and macroeconomic trend analyses accompany the monetary data. - CBP is completing a data warehouse project to allow users access to the CBP’s database and tailor requests (Target date mentioned elsewhere: second half of 2014). - Informe Económico is available only through the CBP website; availability of Excel tables facilitates access. - DEM has an internal production cycle aiming to post Informe Económico 25 days after the reference month and central bank data ten days after the reference month; internal deadline is not publicly preannounced. - Recommendation: - Publish a preannounced release calendar for monetary data. - Informe Económico is presented monthly in a press conference; a couple of hours after the press conference, bulletins and presentation are posted on the CBP website. - Data in Informe Económico are not made available to external agencies prior to public release. - Upon request, the DEM provides non-published but nonconfidential information. - CBP does not indicate publicly that additional information can be obtained, but the public is aware of this possibility. ### 5.2 Metadata accessibility - CBP website provides a link to the IMF’s DSBB. - Informe Económico contains detailed explanatory notes on each published table. - Metadata on monetary statistics were available through the IMF’s DSBB but had not been updated since 2004. - At the time of the mission, the CBP sent revised MFS metadata to the Statistics Department, which were posted on the IMF’s DSBB in March 2014. - Level of disaggregation in CBP publications is sufficient to meet different audiences’ needs, except that the ODC and the DC surveys are not published. ### 5.3 Assistance to users - Informe Económico does not contain names, telephones, and e-mail addresses of persons to contact regarding monetary statistics, nor a mailbox for queries; it identifies the publication as a product of the SGGPM. - The switchboard number of the CBP is available on the CBP website as a general entry point. - CBP offers a free-of-charge subscription service; subscribers receive each month via e-mail a pdf version of Informe Económico. An electronic address is provided to request this service. - One window of the CBP website encourages users to submit requests and comments to the CBP in general, not specifically on monetary statistics. - Recommendation: - Include a mailbox in the CBP website where queries regarding monetary statistics can be channeled. - CBP does not print hardcopies; all publications can be downloaded from the CBP website free of charge. *Source: _cr14248 - 3. Accuracy and reliability* ### 0.4 Other quality management ### 0.4 Other quality management ### Monetary statistics — quality management findings - Only informal processes are in place to monitor the statistical program. - Monetary survey does not cover credit unions, which represent around 15 percent of the deposits of the sector. - The CBP does not produce the OFC survey, with data of insurance companies and other financial intermediaries. - No breakdown between other nonfinancial corporations, households, and NPISHs. No sectorization of accrued interest. - No validation procedures on outstanding government securities between MOF and ODCs’ data. - Due to lack of individual banking data, no cross-checking of interbank positions. - Only informal procedures in place to check the accuracy of reported ODCs’ data. No documentation of the detected problems. - No systematic revision studies, but improvements introduced at the request of users. - Although internally compiled, the CBP does not disseminate the ODC and the DC surveys. - Broad money aggregates disseminated on a monthly basis 25 days after the end of the reference period. - Central bank data disseminated on a monthly basis ten days after the end of the reference period. - No systematic regular revisions. No revision studies are performed. When mistaken data are revised, a note in the table indicates that a revision took place, but not the reasons for the revision. - The data warehouse project will improve data accessibility. Target date: second half of 2014. - No contact person, or mailbox, for monetary statistics queries available on the CBP website. ### Monetary statistics — specific improvement targets (as stated) - Expand the scope of the ODC survey with the inclusion of the largest (Type A) credit unions. Target date: first half of 2014. - Disseminate the ODC and the DC surveys in Informe Económico. Target date: first half of 2014. - The data warehouse project will improve data accessibility. Target date: second half of 2014. ### Balance of payments — other quality management findings - The CBP authorities are aware that continued efforts are needed to improve the quality of statistics produced by the CBP and that official statistics must have the confidence of users. - Monitoring processes (although no systematic) are conducted within the CBP to inform managers on the quality achieved for ongoing statistical activities (for example, surveys’ response rates and timeliness evaluations). - The DEI tries to enforce the reporting of nonfinancial private companies and increase the response rate of the surveys by reducing respondent burden and adapting questions to reporters’ terminology and accounting codes. - The Balance of Payments Division (DBP) of the DEI is currently comprised of seven staff (one less than during the 2006 ROSC Data Module mission). - Balance of Payments Section: two staff - Surveys Section: three staff - Exchange Balance Section: one staff - Staff qualifications are adequate, with most professionals having a bachelor or master degree in economics. - Salaries and benefits are above those offered by the central government. The DEI finds complicated to retain new qualified staff because after few years of training they usually move to other positions within the CBP. - Most staff have participated in courses on BOP and IIP methodology, including recent courses based on the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6). - Working space, computer resources, and equipment are adequate. Each staff member has his/her own computer connected to a main server with backup and system protection procedures. - The IT systems prepared to access to the SB and SI databases are very slow and need to be upgraded. - Financial resources allocated to the compilation of BOP and IIP statistics are not sufficient for supporting developmental work, specifically, the adoption of BPM6 and improvements on the coverage of these statistics. - In 2009, the DEI started conducting new surveys to collect data on remittances, travel, other services, and FDI, with the financing of the European Union. However, the project could not be finalized due to breach of contract of the hired company to conduct the surveys. - Data users are not consulted or kept informed on the relevance and practical utility of existing data (for example, usefulness in terms of detail, periodicity, and timeliness). The CBP has not established procedures to consult with users (for example, user surveys, seminars, advisory committees), where feedback from data users is sought to review the usefulness of BOP data and to identify emerging data needs; nevertheless, informal contacts with data users (for example, students and academia) take place. - The CBP will resume its participation in regular meetings with the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR), where there is a project to harmonize statistics and assess the way of implementing BPM6, based on the experience of other countries. ### Balance of payments — recommendations and procedural notes (as stated) - Undertake regular reviews to identify steps necessary to maintain quality requirements. - Enforce reporting from the nonfinancial private sector. - Increase the number of staff dedicated to the compilation of external sector statistics to assure the smooth migration to BPM6 and the improvement on the coverage of these statistics. - Update the IT process to access to the databases managed by the SB and the SI, respectively. - Establish procedures to identify the users’ relevance and practical utility of existing data. - Inform users in advance of the introduction of BPM6-basis data. *Source: _cr14248 - 0.4 Other quality management* ### 2. Methodological soundness ### 2. Methodological soundness ### 2.1 Concepts and definitions - Overall structure in terms of concepts and definitions follows internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices. - Concepts and definitions used in preparing external sector statistics are consistent with the guidelines of BPM5. - The CBP is aware of the need to implement BPM6 and is planning to do it in the short term; nevertheless, there is no formal plan to undertake this task. - A clear distinction is made between the income component and the goods and services components. - FDI is presented on the directional basis which is the method recommended in the CDIS. - According to BPM6, FDI data have to be presented on a gross assets and liabilities basis in BOP and IIP statistics. - Some tables disseminated by the DBP include financial derivatives (with no values) under direct investment; this is a departure from international guidelines. - FDI transactions and positions are defined by applying the 10 percent or more of ownership rule. - Resident institutional units are defined in broad conformity with the BPM6. - Since 2012, the two binational hydroelectrical enterprises (Itaipú and Yacyretá) are considered 50 percent residents in Paraguay, in line with BPM6. These binational enterprises are located on both banks of the Paraná river border with Brazil and Argentina, respectively. Itaipú (jointly and equally owned by the governments of Paraguay and Brazil) and Yacyretá (jointly and equally owned by the governments of Paraguay and Argentina) were established through special legislation enacted by Paraguay with Brazil on April 26, 1973 and Argentina on December 3, 1973. The CBP revised the BOP and IIP historical series in 2012 accordingly. The external debt historical series were revised in February 2014, in line with the External Debt Statistics: Guide for Compliers and Users, 2013 (2013 EDSG). - The financial costs of Yacyretá (interest costs accrued on outstanding debt liabilities) are not yet included in the external statistics, pending agreement on these costs to be reached between the involved governments. Recommendations: - Develop a comprehensive plan that lists actions and key target dates to migrate the BOP and IIP statistics to BPM6. - Remove the financial derivatives line included under direct investment, in BOP and IIP presentations. ### 2.2 Scope - The scope is broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices. - Most resident-nonresident transactions are covered in the BOP statistics, including estimates on foreign trade not recorded by Paraguayan customs (energy, goods leaving the commercial free zones, and smuggling), workers’ remittances (to be included in personal transfers in BPM6), reinvested earnings, nonfinancial private sector deposits abroad, debt arrears, and noncash transactions. - Data on some services (for example, construction, and professional), compensation of employees, direct investment abroad and portfolio investment assets are not estimated. - Most resident-nonresident positions are covered in IIP statistics, including other accounts receivable and payable. - Data on direct investment abroad, financial derivatives, and portfolio investment assets (most of which are assumed to be of relatively minor importance) are not estimated. - The coverage of the external transactions and positions of the nonfinancial private sector is not sufficient; the response rate of the surveys has decreased in the last years. - The DBP has included the external debt of Yacyretá and Itaipú in the BOP and IIP statistics, along with the rest of external transactions and positions of these enterprises. - At the time of the mission, the DEI resumed the publication of the external debt statistics and included the external debt of the binational hydroelectrical enterprises in the total external debt in line with the EDSG 2013. At the time of the mission, the DEI published a document: “International Investment Position and External Debt of Paraguay” explaining the consistency between IIP and external debt data, which now includes the external debt of the binational hydroelectrical enterprises. The document is available on the CBP website (https://www.bcp.gov.py/userfiles/files/POSICION_DE_INVERSION_INTERNACIONAL_Y_DEUDA_EXTERNA_SET_2013.pdf). - The CBP does not compile the memorandum items included in BPM6 (such as financial intermediation service indirectly measured (FISIM) and currency composition of debt instruments). Recommendation: - Develop a plan to collect and compile the memorandum items included in the standard presentation of BPM6, as relevant. ### 2.3 Classification/sectorization - Classification/sectorization systems used are broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices. - BOP transactions and IIP positions are in line with the classification recommended in BPM5. - The current account includes (i) goods; (ii) services (transport, travel, government goods and services n.i.e., and other services); (iii) income (primary income in BPM6) comprising compensation of employees and investment income; and (iv) current transfers (secondary income in BPM6). - Goods are further disaggregated into (i) general merchandise, (ii) goods for processing, (iii) repairs on goods (these two last components should be reclassified to services in BPM6 because in these cases there is no change of ownership), (iv) goods procured in ports by carriers (included under general merchandise in BPM6), and (v) nonmonetary gold. - Exports and imports of the maquila sector (with no change in ownership) are recorded under goods for processing as recommended by BPM5; nevertheless, they should be reclassified to services according to BPM6. - The capital account is presented along with the financial account and the sum of their balances is calculated and disseminated. According to BPM6, the BOP should present the capital and financial accounts separately and their balances should not be aggregated. - The classification used in the financial account is broadly consistent with the one used in the IIP. - BOP transactions and IIP positions include: (i) direct investment (equity, reinvested earnings, other capital (debt instruments in BPM6) and also financial derivatives, which need to be excluded from FDI); (ii) portfolio investment (equity securities and debt securities); (iii) financial derivatives; (iv) other investment; and (v) reserve assets. - Other investment is further classified into trade credits, loans, currency and deposits, and other assets and liabilities (insurance, pension, and standardized guarantee schemes need to be included in BPM6’s standard presentation as a separate item). - Reserve assets are classified into monetary gold, special drawing rights (SDRs), reserve position in the Fund, foreign exchange, and other claims (the last two components are classified under other reserve assets in BPM6). SDR allocations are included in other liabilities and should be recorded under other investment as a separate item according to BPM6. - The sectorization system is broadly consistent with BPM5; however, in the tables disseminated by the DEI, only the other investment item in the financial account is disaggregated by sector. These sectors include: monetary authorities (central bank in BPM6, although the continued use of monetary authorities is endorsed in some cases), general government, banks (deposit taking corporations, except the central bank in BPM6), and other sectors, which, as recommended in BPM6, has to be further disaggregated into other financial corporations and nonfinancial corporations, households, and NPISHs. - The DEI has available information to provide the breakdown by sector in the following components of the financial account and IIP: portfolio investment (equity and debt securities), currency and deposits, loans, trade credits, and other accounts receivable or payable (for both assets and liabilities). Additionally, these breakdowns are being provided to the IMF’s Statistics Department through the regular data submissions. - Nonfinancial public enterprises’ (such as the binational hydroelectrical enterprises) claims and liabilities are attributed to other sectors; external debt transactions and positions are attributed to the institutional sector of the borrower. - Borrowing and lending between direct investors and direct investment enterprises are classified under the FDI, except when transactions/positions are between banks in line with BPM6. Recommendations: - Disseminate the financial account of the BOP and the IIP with sectoral breakdown. - Implement the classification and sectorization recommended in BPM6 as explained above. ### 2.4 Basis for recording 2.4.1 Valuation and market prices - Market prices are used to value transactions and positions. For some positions, proxies are used. - For the most part, transactions are valued at market prices and, where information is not available, at nominal or book value. - Foreign trade transactions are recorded on an f.o.b. basis, which is the value provided by DGA for both imports and exports. In 2012 and 2013, the private and public sectors issued bonds abroad, which were recorded in portfolio investment liabilities at market value. However, the value of these bonds has kept constant since the issue date and compilers have assumed that the total amount of these bonds was acquired by nonresidents. - All transactions and positions are disseminated in United States dollars. - Transactions in different currencies are converted using the mid-point exchange rate prevailing in the market on the transaction date. Otherwise, the average exchange rate for the period over which transactions are being measured is used. - Positions in different currencies are converted at the rate prevailing on the balance sheet date. - Due to lack of position data in original currencies, some transactions in financial assets and liabilities of the nonfinancial private sector are estimated from difference of the positions and adjustments for exchange rate changes are not made. Therefore, these transactions may include exchange rate changes. Recommendations: - Revise the value of portfolio investment liabilities in the IIP using the market value at the end of each reporting period. - Obtain information on the currency of denomination of financial assets and liabilities to exclude exchange rate changes when transactions are estimated from positions. 2.4.2 Recording basis and timing - Recording is done on an accrual basis. - In general, change of ownership, as specified in BPM6, is the principle governing the recording of transactions. Goods should be recorded as of the time that the change of economic ownership takes place. Services are recorded when rendered, and reinvested earnings on direct investment are recorded in the period when earned—with the correspondent counter-entries in the financial account; if debt service payments are not made when due, arrears occur, and according to BPM6, they are recorded in the original debt instrument. In BPM6, arrears are separately identified in a memorandum item. - Since 2010, interest on reserve assets is recorded on an accrual basis (this amount should be recorded under a separate item; investment income on reserve assets, in BPM6). However, interest on public sector debt is recorded on a due-for-payment basis (contractually established payment dates) and income on portfolio investment liabilities is recorded on a cash basis. Recommendations: - Record interests on external debt, including portfolio investment, on an accrual basis. - Record arrears in the original debt instrument (when implementing BPM6) rather than as other debt liabilities (short-term), which was the treatment in BPM5. 2.4.3 Grossing/netting procedures - Grossing/netting procedures are broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices. - In line with BPM6, most current and capital account transactions are recorded on a gross basis, while financial account transactions are recorded on a net basis, separately for the individual asset and liability components. - Due to lack of information, some services (for example, telecommunication) are being recorded on a net basis. *Source: _cr14248 - 2. Methodological soundness* ### 3.2 Assessment of source data ### 3.2 Assessment of source data ### 3.2 Source data: coverage and routine assessment - Source data—including censuses, sample surveys, and administrative records—are routinely assessed for coverage, sample error, response error, and nonsampling error; results of assessments are monitored and made available to guide statistical processes. - Accuracy of international merchandise trade, and other supplementary sources used to compile the BOP and IIP statistics are routinely assessed. - Data from surveys are regularly analyzed, in particular to check for temporal consistency with related data sources such as balance sheets of the nonfinancial private sector enterprises. ### 3.3 Statistical techniques: compilation and adjustments - Data compilation employs sound statistical techniques to deal with data sources; compilation procedures are conducted to minimize processing errors, such as coding, editing, and tabulation errors. Procedures to adjust for nonresponse are used. - Data sources do not provide sufficient coverage and are not used as extensively as their potential (for example, the balance sheets of the nonfinancial private enterprises) to compile BOP transactions and IIP positions. Most gaps in terms of coverage are known. - The CBP has developed several procedures to supplement available data from various data sources. - The CBP does not use sample techniques nor extrapolates data obtained from surveys. - Recommendation: - Explore the use of sample techniques to derive grossing-up factors. - Other statistical procedures (e.g., data adjustments and transformations, and statistical analysis) employ sound statistical techniques. - The CBP has developed procedures to adjust data to improve coverage and classification in line with international standards; procedures to estimate goods leaving the CFZ, travel, transportation, and several other services are particularly important. - Some procedures are not updated periodically; therefore, their results may not be too informative. Goods — Adjustments to Customs data - Merchandise imports and exports unrecorded by customs are estimated (since the late-1990s) on the basis of international publications, such as data reported by Paraguay’s trading partners to the IMF’s Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) and special CBP studies. - Goods leaving the CFZ (called “re-exports” by the DEI) are goods that enter Paraguay and are resold to nonresidents from Brazil and to a lesser extent from Argentina (mainly in Ciudad del Este, Pedro Juan Caballero, Saltos del Guairá, and Encarnación) and are estimated to supplement customs data. - The estimation process (described in a CBP working paper of February 2013) treats estimated values of goods sold in the CFZ as two components: - Sales of recorded imports: - Calculated as the difference between imports recorded by the DGA and an estimate of goods consumed/used in the economy (domestic absorption). - Resulting amount is increased by an estimate for freight and insurance, tariffs, value added tax, and sales markup. - Sales of unrecorded imports: - (i) It is assumed that the imports reported in the DOTS constitute Paraguay's total imports of goods. - (ii) The difference between import figures from the DOTS and those recorded by the DGA represent the value of unrecorded imports. - (iii) It is assumed that all unrecorded imports are sold in the free zones. - (iv) This amount is increased by an estimate for freight insurance and sales markups. - The DEI is considering replacing these estimates with data on imported goods under the Decree 6406 of October 2005, provided by the DGA. Importers subject to this decree pay 1.5 percent of value added tax (instead of 10 percent) and are obligated to resell their imported goods to nonresidents; in principle these goods will be sold in the CFZ. - The DEI will obtain the value of goods sold in the CFZ as the CIF value of goods imported under this decree increased by taxes and sales markup (estimated in 10 percent). The DEI plans to incorporate results of this study to the BOP statistics along with the implementation of BPM6 and has prepared a methodological note on goods leaving the commercial free zones (“re-exports”), which will be disseminated when this methodological change is implemented. - Data on energy exports are not included in the DGA database, but directly reported to the CBP by the two binational hydroelectrical enterprises and ANDE. - The value of exports of energy is calculated as the sum of total billing minus domestic consumption plus compensation for transfer of energy, which is considered part of the cost of the energy. - Estimates on imports of smuggled goods and informal trade are based on export data reported by counterpart economies. Recently, these estimates were increased in a fixed amount to include the informal trade with Argentina based on a study on tendencies. Services — main estimation procedures - Goods procured in ports by carriers and repairs on goods are estimated by extrapolating available data from previous periods. - Data on freight transport are obtained from SOFIA; these data do not discriminate by residence. - The National Tourism Secretariat (SENATUR) provides data on the number of visitors and the average length of stay (received from the Migrations Department) to estimate passenger transport (applying average market price of tickets) and travel (applying the average expenditure). - The DEI plans to obtain data on air transport from the National Directorate of Civil Aviation (DINAC) to supplement the data received from SENATUR. Compilers currently check SENATUR data with DINAC publications. - Data on freight insurance are calculated as a percentage of data recorded at the DGA’s foreign trade database. - Data on telecommunications services are recorded on a net basis, without being disaggregated into credit and debit components. - Data on computer and information services are calculated by extrapolating previous available information. - Data on government services debits are obtained from the budget execution; government services credits are currently estimated and could be obtained from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. - Income: - Quarterly balances deposited abroad by residents in Paraguay (based on estimates from data published by the BIS and the US Federal Reserve Board) are multiplied by the quarterly average LIBOR to obtain interest on deposits. - Distributed and undistributed profits are estimated: - For direct investment financial enterprises, using information from the SB. - For direct investment insurance companies, using information from the SI. - For private nonfinancial enterprises, using CBP surveys and enterprises’ balance sheets. - Transfers: - Workers' remittances data are collected from payments and receipts in foreign currency reported by banks; this information may include transactions between residents, but data are not adjusted accordingly. Information is supplemented with data from some transport companies. - Grants and other current transfers from official multilateral and bilateral donors are obtained from the Secretariat of Planning and supplemented with information from the CBP, the MOF, and the media. Financial Account and IIP - The DBP is in the process of compiling data on investment in real estate made by nonresident households from information available at the bureau of the National Police, the national bureau of immigration, and the Land Registration Office. - The DBP plans to use the same sources to collect data on investments in real estate made by nonresident corporations. - Recommendations: - Revise the estimates of goods leaving the CFZ (“re-exports”) using the data on imports under the Decree 6406 collected by the DGA. - Review current estimates on imports of smuggled goods and informal trade in consultation with compilers from counterpart economies. - Enact an agreement with DINAC to obtain data on transport for BOP purposes. - In coordination with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, conduct a survey to foreign embassies and consulates to obtain data on government services n.i.e (credits). - Apply the residence criteria established in BPM6 to include real estate estimates in external sector statistics. ### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs - Intermediate results are validated against other information, where applicable. - The CBP verifies estimates of FDI and other external assets and liabilities with balance sheets and income statements for nonfinancial private sector enterprises. - The CBP uses information reported in the financial press to verify high-value direct investment and other transactions, when appropriate. - Statistical discrepancies in intermediate data are assessed and investigated. - The behavior of a few series is routinely assessed against related series (for example, freight and goods trade transactions). Among others, travel services and passenger transportation are not assessed. - Reported financial transaction data are reconciled with changes in the corresponding position data for all components of the IIP and a reconciliation table (transactions and other changes) is disseminated by the DEI on a regular basis. - Statistical discrepancies and other potential indicators of problems in statistical outputs are investigated. - Staff monitor developments in the errors and omissions item and assess consistency between entries in the current, capital, and financial accounts. - For goods trade data, the DEI conducts bilateral data reconciliation with partner countries within MERCOSUR. ### 3.5 Revision studies - Studies and analyses of revisions and/or updates are carried out and used internally to inform statistical processes, but formal studies are not conducted. - CBP staff revise data periodically (but revisions are not regularly documented). - The revisions of BOP and IIP data series carried out in 2012, due to the new treatment of the two binational hydroelectrical enterprises, were analyzed and documented and the CBP disseminated an extensive study of the implications in the data. - Recommendation: - Strengthen data revision policies and practices. ### 4 Serviceability — Periodicity and timeliness - Periodicity follows dissemination standards. - Quarterly periodicity of BOP and IIP statistics meets the GDDS recommendations. Quarterly BOP and IIP data are disseminated since 2001. - Timeliness follows dissemination standards. - Quarterly BOP and IIP data are disseminated three months after the end of the reference period. - These data are reported to the IMF’s Statistics Department once or twice a year only, for their inclusion in the IMF annual publications. - Recommendation: - Report quarterly BOP and IIP statistics to the IMF’s Statistics Department with quarterly timeliness. ### 4.2 Consistency - Statistics are consistent within the dataset. - Financial transactions of the BOP are consistent with changes in the IIP; a reconciliation table is regularly disseminated. Annual BOP data are the sum of quarterly BOP data. - Over the last eight years, the net errors and omissions item has been large (except for 2006 and 2008) and has oscillated from negative to positive values, reflecting limitations in some estimation methods and lack of coverage of certain services and financial transactions. The DBP monitors magnitude and sign of the net errors and omissions and seeks to understand statistical deficiencies. - Statistics are consistent or reconcilable over a reasonable period of time. - Annual statistics are available since 1995, and quarterly statistics since 2001. - Income on portfolio investment is only recorded from the third quarter of 2013 and the IIP shows positions in portfolio investment since 2011; therefore, the income account is not consistent with the positions recorded in the IIP. - When changes in source data, methodology, or techniques are introduced, CBP revises historical series accordingly, as far back as possible. Example: in 2012 CBP changed residence criteria in line with BPM6 to consider the two binational hydroelectrical enterprises 50 percent residents in Paraguay and revised BOP and IIP historical series from 1995. - Recommendation: - Establish a regular process to cross-check the consistency between each component of the income account and the corresponding position recorded in the IIP. - Statistics are consistent or reconcilable with those obtained through other data sources and/or statistical frameworks. - Monetary statistics use the same source data to obtain reserve assets and are fully consistent with IIP. However, there are large discrepancies between the liabilities of deposit taking corporations included in the IIP and those recorded in monetary statistics. - The CBP publishes monthly external debt statistics consistent with IIP data. The MOF reports general government external debt to the World Bank (QEDS). Currently, the data available in the QEDS website are not consistent with general government external debt data published by the DEI. - International trade data recorded in national accounts are based on BOP data (which include estimates of unrecorded trade and other adjustments); NA and BOP should be consistent. There may be inconsistencies between historical series of BOP/IIP and national accounts due to different periodicity and timeliness. - Direct investment data recorded in the IIP are consistent with data published in the CDIS website. Preliminary 2012 data reported in the CDIS are not fully consistent with the IIP, possibly due to different periodicity and timeliness. - Recommendations: - Conduct regular meetings with other areas within the CBP to ensure the consistency of macroeconomic statistics. - Conduct regular meetings with the MOF (at least twice a year) to discuss issues of common interest, coordinate submission of external debt data to the World Bank (QEDS), and ensure consistency of fiscal and external sector statistics. ### 4.3 Revision policy and practice - Revisions and/or updates follow a regular and transparent schedule. - Revision cycle of BOP and IIP statistics is predetermined and reasonably stable. Revisions follow a regular schedule available to the public. - Data for a new quarter is preliminary and subject to revisions during seven consecutive quarters. The revision cycle is associated with availability of source data. - Policies and practices governing revision of data are not disseminated nor documented in BOP and IIP publications. - Revisions outside the regular cycle are made known to the public. CBP disseminated “Technical Paper Explaining the Change from Nonresidents to Residents of the Binational Entities in Paraguay from 2012” to explain the revisions introduced due to the new treatment of the two binational hydroelectrical enterprises. - Preliminary and/or revised/updated data are clearly identified. - Users are informed whenever data are preliminary or revised. New quarter data are always preliminary. - Studies and analyses of revisions are made public (see also 3.5.1). - Analysis of differences between revised and preliminary data is not published. Formal studies are not conducted. Revisions outside the regular cycle (for example, inclusion of the binational hydroelectrical enterprises) are analyzed and explained. ### 5 Accessibility - Data accessibility and presentation: - Paraguay's BOP and IIP statistics are mainly disseminated in two CBP publications: the Annual Report and the Monthly Economic Report. The DEI also publishes an annual report on FDI and a document on IIP and external debt. These publications are available on the CBP website. - BOP and IIP statistics are published in BPM5 format and should be disseminated according to standard components of BPM6. The CBP is planning to implement BPM6, but there is not a predefined date. - Data include the analytical presentation of the BOP and a reconciliation table between the financial account of the BOP and IIP data (transactions and positions). - BOP and IIP statistics are sent to the IMF in BPM5 format (through Excel files) that are converted by the IMF into a BPM6 format for inclusion in IMF statistical publications. The mission advised using the Integrated Correspondence System (ICS) to transmit data to the IMF. - The BOP and IIP statistics are disseminated with charts and tables and include commentaries on current-period BOP and IIP developments in CBP publications (annual report and semiannual monetary policy report). - Dissemination media and formats: - Quarterly BOP and IIP data are disseminated in annexes of most CBP publications (pdf. format). - The DEI disseminates electronic tables with BOP and IIP statistics, showing data for the last three years and containing hidden columns with data from 1995. - The CBP is developing an online database (data warehouse) to contain different statistics produced by the CBP to allow users to easily retrieve data; this data warehouse will probably be available to the public this year. - Release schedule and access: - An advance release calendar is published indicating release dates. Quarterly BOP and IIP data follow a regular dissemination schedule and are included in the relevant CBP monthly publication. - Quarterly BOP and IIP data are disseminated three months after the end of the reference period. - The BOP and IIP data are released simultaneously to the public on the CBP website and through a reduced number of CBP hardcopy publications. - The CBP provides available unpublished BOP and IIP data series to users who request them, with due regard to confidentiality rules. No specific reference is made in BOP publications on the availability of unpublished subaggregates and the terms under which they are made available; the CBP may prepare customized reports to meet specific requests. *Source: _cr14248 - 3.2 Assessment of source data* ### 5.2 Metadata accessibility ### _cr14248 - 5.2 Metadata accessibility ### Metadata accessibility (5.2.1–5.2.2) - Documentation on concepts, scope, classifications, basis of recording, data sources, and statistical techniques is available, and differences from internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices are annotated in principle; however: - The CBP does not disseminate comprehensive BOP and IIP metadata. Few methodological notes are described in the monthly economic report. - At the time of the mission, the GDDS metadata posted on the IMF’s Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB) had not been updated since 2004. - The IMF also publishes in e-library Paraguay’s BOP and IIP metadata, which was updated in 2011. - Footnote: Revised IIP metadata were posted on the IMF’s DSBB in March 2014. - Recommendations: - Prepare comprehensive BOP and IIP metadata, describing concepts, classifications, data sources, compilation methods, statistical techniques, and other relevant methodological aspects. - Update and maintain current the metadata available in national publications as well as the GDDS metadata posted on the IMF’s DSBB. - Complete the IMF’s BOP and IIP metadata questionnaires through ICS. - Levels of detail: - General use information about the BOP and IIP statistics is not available. ### Assistance to users (5.3) - Contact points (telephone, fax, and email address) are provided in the BOP and IIP bulletin and in FDI reports; these documents are available on the CBP website. - CBP staff are available to answer queries from users, as stated in the CBP publications, albeit in an unsystematic way. - No processes are conducted periodically to monitor and review assistance to users, but the DBP maintains an informal register of the different queries received. - Publications and services: - The CBP website contains a list of publications (monthly, quarterly, and annual) that include BOP and IIP statistics, along with merchandise trade, FDI, and external debt. - Special documents (work documents and research papers) prepared by CBP staff related to BOP and IIP statistics may also be included on the CBP website. - All these publications may be obtained free of charge. ### Data Quality Assessment Framework — Key serviceability and metadata findings (Table 6, May 2012) - Prerequisites of quality: - 0.1 Legal and institutional environment: The coverage of the nonfinancial private sector is not sufficient. Plan: Review the CBP law to enforce the reporting of the nonfinancial private enterprises. - 0.2 Resources: The number of staff is not sufficient to improve the coverage and statistics techniques. Plan: Increase staffing and establish an evaluation process. - 0.3 Relevance: Data users are not consulted on practical utility of existing data and rising needs. - 0.4 Other quality management: Regular and systemic processes to monitor data quality are needed. - Methodological soundness: - 2.1 Concepts and definitions: There is no formal plan to migrate to BPM6. Plan: Develop a comprehensive plan to implement BPM6 in the short term. - 2.2 Scope: The response rate of the surveys addressed to the nonfinancial private sector has decreased. No plans to collect new requirements of BPM6. - 2.3 Classification/sectorization: Data by sector are only disseminated for total other investment in the financial account. Plan: Disseminate the sectoral breakdown for all the components of the BOP and IIP (except for FDI and reserves). - 2.4 Basis for recording: Interest on public debt and on portfolio investment is not on an accrual basis. Portfolio investment needs to be recorded at market value. Plan: Record interest on portfolio investment on an accrual basis. Record portfolio investment at market value. - Accuracy and reliability: - 3.1 Source data: Data from surveys are insufficient. - 3.3 Statistical techniques: Some estimations are based on assumptions and extrapolation. Plan: Review the process to obtain goods leaving the commercial free zones. - 3.5 Revision studies: Studies are only made in case of large revisions (e.g., binational hydroelectrical enterprises). - Serviceability: - 4.2 Consistency: There are inconsistencies between (i) MFS and IIP, (ii) QEDS and IIP, and (iii) the income account and the IIP. - Accessibility (specific to metadata): - 5.2 Metadata accessibility: A comprehensive metadata document is not available on the CBP website. GDDS metadata had not been updated since 2004. Revised metadata for IIP were posted on the IMF’s DSBB in March 2014. Plan: Develop and disseminate a comprehensive metadata document and update it periodically. *Source: _cr14248 - 5.2 Metadata accessibility* ### Appendix IV. Paraguay: Practices Compared to the SDDS ### Appendix IV. Paraguay: Practices Compared to the SDDS ### Coverage, Periodicity, and Timeliness — SDDS vs Paraguay (selected highlights) - Real Sector - National accounts: SDDS coverage = Yes; SDDS periodicity = Q; Paraguay periodicity = Q; SDDS timeliness = Q; Paraguay timeliness = A; Paraguay dissemination lags listed as 1Q for several items. - Savings: SDDS coverage = Yes; SDDS periodicity = Q; Paraguay periodicity = Q; SDDS timeliness = Q; Paraguay timeliness = A; Paraguay dissemination lag listed as 1Q. - Gross national income: SDDS coverage = Yes; SDDS periodicity = Q; Paraguay periodicity = Q; SDDS timeliness = Q; Paraguay timeliness = A; Paraguay dissemination lag listed as 1Q. - Production index/indices: SDDS coverage = Yes; SDDS periodicity = 1; Paraguay periodicity = MM6W (1M encouraged)9W; Paraguay timeliness entries include 1W and 3Q for certain items. - Consumer price index: SDDS coverage = Yes; SDDS periodicity = MM1M; Paraguay periodicity/timeliness entry = 1W. - Producer price index: SDDS coverage = Yes; SDDS periodicity = MM1M; Paraguay timeliness = 5W. - Note: Monthly economic activity index (IMAE). - Fiscal Sector - General government or public sector operations: SDDS coverage = No4; SDDS periodicity = A (Q encouraged); Paraguay periodicity = A (Q encouraged); Paraguay timeliness = 2Q (1Q encouraged). - Interest payments: SDDS coverage = No; SDDS periodicity = A (Q encouraged); Paraguay periodicity = A (Q encouraged); Paraguay timeliness = 2Q (1Q encouraged). - Financing of public enterprises: SDDS coverage = No; SDDS periodicity = A (Q encouraged); Paraguay periodicity = A (Q encouraged); Paraguay timeliness = 2Q (1Q encouraged). - General government total gross debt: SDDS coverage = Yes5; SDDS periodicity = Q; Paraguay periodicity = M; SDDS timeliness = M; Paraguay timeliness = 1M; note: “Debt data based on remaining maturity not disseminated but can be calculated. No data on debt securities at market value.” - Central government operations: SDDS coverage = Yes; periodicity = M; Paraguay periodicity = M; Paraguay timeliness = 1M (75D in Dec) for several central government monthly reports. - Central government debt: SDDS coverage = Yes; SDDS periodicity = Q; Paraguay periodicity = Q; Paraguay timeliness = 1Q. - Debt service projections: SDDS coverage = No6 (insufficient disaggregation); Paraguay coverage = Yes; Paraguay periodicity/timeliness = M and 1M. - Financial Sector - Depository corporations survey: SDDS coverage = No7; SDDS periodicity = M; Paraguay periodicity = M; Paraguay timeliness = 1M; note: “The CBP compiles but does not disseminate a DC survey.” - Narrow monetary aggregates such as M1/M2: SDDS coverage = Yes; SDDS periodicity = M; Paraguay periodicity = M; Paraguay timeliness = 1M; some items with 25D lag. - Central bank survey / claims disaggregated: SDDS coverage = Yes; periodicity = M (W encouraged); Paraguay periodicity = M (W encouraged); Paraguay timeliness = 10D. - Interest rates (Policy-oriented rates; Representative deposit and lending rates): SDDS coverage = Yes; SDDS periodicity = D; Paraguay periodicity = D; Paraguay timeliness examples include 2D and 25D. - Financial soundness indicators: SDDS coverage = Yes; SDDS periodicity = Q M? (table shows YesQM1Q); Paraguay periodicity = 1Q; Paraguay timeliness = 1M. - External Sector - Balance of payments: SDDS coverage = Yes; disaggregation according to BPM6 = Yes; financial derivatives assets/liabilities = No; Paraguay periodicity = Q; Paraguay timeliness = 1Q. - Official reserve assets disaggregated by components: SDDS coverage = Yes; Paraguay periodicity = M (W encouraged); Paraguay timeliness = W1W 1W. - Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity (Section III, Table 6.1 of SDDS Guide): SDDS component = No; Paraguay = No; Paraguay periodicity/timeliness = M and 1M (1W encouraged). - Merchandise trade disaggregation by major components: SDDS coverage = Yes; Paraguay periodicity = M; Paraguay timeliness = 8W (4-6W encouraged) and 4W for certain items. - International investment position (IIP): SDDS coverage = Yes; financial derivatives assets/liabilities = No; SDDS periodicity = A(Q encouraged); Paraguay periodicity = A, Q3Q (1Q encouraged); Paraguay timeliness entries include 3Q (1Q encouraged) and 1Q. - External debt: SDDS coverage = Yes; financial derivatives = No; Paraguay periodicity = Q; Paraguay timeliness = 1Q. - Exchange rates: SDDS coverage = Yes; Paraguay periodicity/timeliness = DD 9; Paraguay timeliness = 1WD. - Socio-demographic Data - Population: SDDS coverage = YesAA (census every 10 yrs); Paraguay periodicity = Regular basis; variable. - Notes in source: - 1 Monthly economic activity index (IMAE). - 2 Geographical coverage restricted to the Greater Asuncion Area. - 3 Coverage of the economy is not complete (for example, electricity production is not covered). - 4 Not compiled although data are available to compile detailed GFS on general government operations. - 5 Debt data based on remaining maturity not disseminated but can be calculated. No data on debt securities at market value. - 6 Insufficient disaggregation by prescribed components. - 7 The CBP compiles but does not disseminate a DC survey. - 8 No break down between ONFC and HH/NPISH. - 9 Given that data are widely available from private sources, dissemination by official producers may be less time-sensitive. ### Users’ Survey — Method and Response - Survey period: January and February 2014. - Questionnaires sent: 316 users (academia, commercial banks, consulting firms, embassies and international organizations, media, other financial intermediaries, private nonfinancial corporations, public sector). - Responses received: 73. - Response rate reported in Table 1: Total Sent 316; Total Received 73; In Percent Received = 23%. - Table 1 (selected entries) - Academia and consulting firms: Total Sent 32; Total Received 13; In Percent Received 41% - Commercial banks: Total Sent 34; Total Received 11; In Percent Received 32% - Embassies and international organizations: Total Sent 23; Total Received 10; In Percent Received 43% - Media: Total Sent 16; Total Received 6; In Percent Received 38% - Other financial intermediaries: Total Sent 24; Total Received 13; In Percent Received 54% - Private nonfinancial corporations: Total Sent 118; Total Received 14; In Percent Received 12% - Public sector (central bank, ministries, agencies, nonfinancial corporations): Total Sent 9; Total Received 4; In Percent Received 44% - Unions, civil society, and others: Total Sent 60; Total Received 2; In Percent Received 3% - Total 316 sent / 73 received / 23% ### Users’ Survey — Key Findings (Tables and aggregated results) - Overall assessment - Average overall rating (scale 1 to 5, 5 = excellent): 3.8 for all official statistics. - Monetary statistics and prices rated highest; GFS rated lowest. - Comparison with 2006 ROSC Data Module Mission: 2014 overall rating = 3.8 vs 2006 rating = 3.2. - Use of official statistics (Table 2, percent of total responses) - National accounts (NA): 60% - Consumer Prices (CPI): 90% - Producer Prices (PPI): 34% - Government finance statistics (GFS): 40% - Monetary statistics (MFS): 67% - Balance of payments (BOP): 41% - Other: Production indices 29%; Labor market 29%; Merchandise trade 37%; International reserves and foreign currency liquidity 41%; External debt 32%; International investment position 33%; Other 5% - Sources of official statistics (percent) - Official press releases and publications on macroeconomic statistics: 86% - Private sector summaries and analyses: 40% - Official policy papers: 38% - Publications from international organizations about Paraguay: 52% - Other sources: 8% - Refer to official descriptions of sources and methods - Yes: 51% - No: 49% - Purposes for use (percent) - Analysis of current developments for short-term decision making: 70% - Analysis of trends for longer-term policy formulation: 59% - Econometric model building and forecasting: 27% - Economic research: 44% - Comparison with other countries: 49% - General economic background: 42% - Other: 15% - Coverage and detail (percent satisfied) - Overall satisfied with coverage: Yes 84% (average across series = 83%); No 16% (average = 17%). - Satisfied with level of detail: Yes 74% (average = 79%); No 26% (average = 21%). - Periodicity and timeliness - Satisfied with frequency of compilation: Yes 81% (average = 87%); No 19% (average = 13%). - Satisfied with timeliness: Yes 63% (average = 73%); No 37% (average = 27%). - Users noted higher satisfaction with timeliness for prices and monetary statistics; lower satisfaction for GFS, national accounts, and BOP. - Other dissemination practices (percent) - Aware of a publicly disseminated release calendar: Yes 45%; No 55%. - If calendar exists, statistics released on announced dates: Yes 65%; No 35%. - Enough information about revisions: Yes 73%; No 27%. - Accessibility (percent) - Can easily access official statistics: Yes 89%; No 11%. - Can easily access explanatory notes/methodological descriptions: Yes 70%; No 30%. - Methodology sufficiently clear/useful: Yes 52%; No 18%; No Opinion 30%. - How users get access to official statistics (percent): Official releases 47%; Hard copy publications 45%; Data specifically requested 23%; Official website 90%; Other 5%; E-mail requests 38%. - Overall assessment (percent and ratings) - Underlying methodology sound/appropriate: Yes 88%; No 12%. - Official statistics unbiased and accurate: Yes 74%; No 26%. - Compare quality with other countries in region: Better 26%; Same 46%; Worse 28%. - Overall quality rating (1 poor to 5 excellent): Average 3.8 (series values shown: 3.7, 3.9, 3.8, 3.5, 4.0; overall 3.8). ### Users’ Comments and Areas for Improvement (Box 1 — selected points) - Methodological soundness - National accounts base period is old and should be rebased. - Fiscal statistics scope should cover the entire public sector, not only central government. - Detail missing in national accounts (sub-sectors of industry; public and private investment). - CPI should have national coverage with breakdowns by city (currently covers Asuncion metropolitan area only). - PPI sample methodology could be improved. - GFS lack information on public enterprises and decentralized agencies. - Ministry of Finance (MOF) does not provide detailed information on tax revenue (for example income taxes by type of contributor and economic sector). - Statistics on credit unions are unavailable in CBP bulletins. - Accuracy and reliability - Estimates of informal sector activity are poorly measured and not transparent. - Data published by MOF inconsistent with CBP; coordination should be improved, particularly on external debt statistics. - Historical NA and BOP statistics labeled preliminary and open to revisions. - Lack of communication regarding data revisions. - Information on official websites sometimes modified without explanation (example: weighted average interest rates). - BOP statistics do not accurately capture cross-border trade and capital flows. - Serviceability - Timeliness of national accounts, government finance, and balance of payments should be improved. - CBP statistics are timely; MOF and other ministries’ statistics are almost impossible to obtain timely. - Statistical Annex published by CBP contains much information but should be disseminated with shorter lag. - An advance release calendar with exact dates is missing for each statistical sector, except CPI. - Accessibility - Metadata for GFS is of poor quality; CBP should release more methodological documentation. - Methodology, concepts, and practices often not disseminated. - Monetary statistics not disseminated in a time series format; historical data retrieval is difficult. - An interactive online database for selecting time series would be beneficial. - CBP website should include FAQ, more detailed CPI metadata (weights, sample collection, items), and BOP/NA methodologies for informal economy estimation. - Strengthen dissemination via internet and e-mail for CBP, MOF, and GDSSC publications. - Official websites lack options to download raw data (such as Excel). - Fiscal statistics are not consolidated on websites; customs vs internal tax revenue data difficult to find. - CBP is cooperative in responding to user queries. - General comments - Improvements should focus on greater disaggregation, improved timeliness, and providing methodologies. - Economic projections should be more frequent and methodology clearer. - Some datasets missing or incomplete: national CPI, detailed sectoral GDP composition, estimates of Paraguay’s investment abroad, disaggregated employment indices, poverty indicators at district level, agricultural census absent. - Desire for published projections of GDP and inflation at least one year ahead. - CPI communication should be clearer for civil society interpretation. *Source: Appendix IV and Appendix V, “Paraguay: Practices Compared to the SDDS” and “Users’ Survey” (from the provided content).* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2014/_cr14248.pdf_