## Data Quality Assessment Framework 2012—Summary Results (_cr15159) ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [Data Quality Assessment Framework 2012—Summary Results (_cr15159)](https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2015/_cr15159.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2015/_cr15159.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2015/_cr15159.pdf.json) --- ### Overall assessment and context - Oman began participation in the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) in 2002 and posted metadata on the DSBB in June 2002. - Oman meets GDDS good practices for data coverage, periodicity, and timeliness with exceptions (notably: first annual estimate of GDP in volume terms available eleven months after the reference period). - Graduation to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) requires stronger/sustained effort: enhance data collection and strengthen legal framework for macroeconomic statistics. - This assessment (DQAF 2012) covers: national accounts (NA), consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI), government finance statistics (GFS), monetary statistics, and external sector statistics (ESS). Producing agencies: National Center for Statistics and Information (NCSI), Central Bank of Oman (CBO), Ministry of Finance (MOF). ### Key institutional developments and legal framework - Significant progress since 2004 ROSC: improvements in monetary statistics, price indices, balance of payments; introduction of PPI; better relevance, transparency, classification, sectorization. - NCSI established as autonomous statistical institution: Royal Decree No. 31/2012 (May 26, 2012). Duties elaborated August 12, 2014 (Royal Decree No. 40/2014). - Statistical Law: Royal Decree No. 29/2001 exists but amendments needed to vest authority in NCSI and to: - formally assign CBO responsibility to compile/disseminate monetary and external sector statistics; and - amend Financial Law to allow MOF to disseminate GFS in an additional/separate format than the State’s Final Account (current Financial Law allows MOF to disseminate annual budgetary expenditure and revenue only six months after the reference year). ### Institutional environment and resources (selected) - Data-sharing among CBO, MOF, NCSI broadly well-coordinated; consistency checks could be formalized via legal mechanisms. - Resources broadly commensurate with existing programs; additional staff may be needed for higher frequency data and implementation of new standards. - Selected staffing and resource particulars: - National accounts staff: seven full time (Director + six compilers); six have university degree; proposal before MOF to hire eleven additional staff. - CPI staff: 28 staff, 20 price collectors. - PPI staff: 3 staff. - CBO ERSD: 22 staff, five assigned to Money and Banking Section (MBS); as of end-August 2014 Islamic banks reporting indicated assets equal to 4.9 percent of total commercial banks’ assets. - For ODC coverage as of end-August 2014: deposits of Islamic banks = 3.4 percent; loans of Islamic banks = 5.2 percent (of 16 commercial banks). ### Assurances of integrity and transparency - Agencies show professionalism; legal texts (Banking Law, Financial Law, Statistical Law) publicly available. - Areas for improvement: - Announce upcoming statistical releases to ensure equal access. - Disclose principles under which selected users receive prior access; publish and maintain relevant material on NCSI website and agency sites. ### Methodological soundness — summary by dataset - National accounts (NCSI) - Compiled according to 1993 SNA; NCSI planning 2008 SNA implementation. - Oman’s national accounts comprise a subset of ISWGNA minimum requirements (compiles 4 of 11 recommended tables). - Quarterly volume GDP not consistent/time-consistent due to benchmarking practice: first annual volume estimate published approximately eleven months after reference period; quarterly PPI and benchmarking methods impede consistent quarterly constant-price series. - Recommendation: Replace current benchmarking technique with Proportional Denton Method; publish a regular revision timetable; ensure taxes less subsidies on products deflated consistent with underlying products. - Consumer Price Index (CPI) - Strives to follow 2004 ILO CPI Manual and 2008 SNA. - Weights from 2008/2009/2010 HIES (three-year average); CPI covers COICOP groups 01–12 except alcohol; imputed rents of owner-occupied dwellings included. - CPI produced monthly and disseminated 1 month after reference month (GDDS compliant). - Issues: outlet sample lacks frame; price collection excludes Musandam and Al Wusta (populations ~1.1 percent and 1.4 percent); second-hand car weight not net; rebasing to 2012=100 had incorrect method for 2013 months (annual average of 2012 not set to 100). - Recommendations: rebase correctly (set annual average of 2012 to 100), disseminate detailed monthly series in user-friendly formats, publish monthly explanations, establish regular weight-update schedule (every five years minimum). - Producer Price Index (PPI) - Strives to follow IMF 2004 PPI Manual and 2008 SNA; covers ISIC groups C, D, E (about 95 percent of total production). - Weights from Industrial Survey 2007; current weights/samples are outdated; production system relies on Excel-files for replacements. - Produced quarterly and disseminated 3 months after reference quarter (not GDDS compliant). - Recommendations: update production system to allow routine item/establishment replacement, update weights/samples at least every five years, consider monthly production and timeliness within eight weeks (ideally one month) of reference month. - Monetary statistics (CBO) - Concepts and definitions in broad conformity with MFSM and MFSCG; banking returns revised (Circular BM 1058 dated September 14, 2009). - Source data: CBO balance sheet and balance sheets of 16 commercial banks via banking returns (RD1–RD15). - Islamic banks not included historically; inclusion of Islamic banks and windows completed mapping and Combined Monetary Survey being published starting 2013 data; aim to include Islamic banks in ODC coverage by January 2015. - Periodicity/timeliness meet GDDS: compiled by 25th of following month and posted within 45 days; monetary statistics presented aggregated; detailed time series available upon request. - Gaps: no OFCS/FCS compilation; limited sectoral breakdown in published tables; no formal regular revision studies (December data exception). - Recommendations: include Islamic banks in ODC coverage, expand sectoral breakdown in Commercial Bank’s Combined Balance Sheet, explore feasibility of OFCS/FCS (pension funds, insurance corporations). - External sector statistics (ESS) / Balance of Payments (CBO) - ESS broadly follow BPM5; migration to BPM6 needed (fine-tune goods for processing, FDI presentation). - Coverage gaps: private sector financial transactions and stocks, FDI details (reinvested earnings missing), services detail (insurance, construction), free economic zones treatment. - Source data: customs, banking reports, surveys (FDI), administrative sources; timeliness supports annual but not full quarterly compilation. - Dissemination: annual BOP within six months (GDDS compliant); quarterly BOP compiled internally; IIP under development (prepared annually internally, not published due to gaps). - Recommendations: elaborate BPM6 migration plan and timetable; increase ESS staffing; disseminate IIP and external debt; improve trade adjustments (free zones) and services collection; consider ITRS and dedicated surveys for free zones. - Government Finance Statistics (GFS) (MOF / GAD) - Fiscal data broadly follow GFSM 1986; MOF bridges fiscal accounts to GFSM2001 cash basis for GFS Yearbook. - Scope: published data cover budgetary central government revenue, expense, balance flows; sovereign wealth funds excluded from GFS compilation for budgetary central government. - Basis for recording: transactions recorded on cash basis; stock positions at face/book value. - Timeliness: monthly operations generally published within 45 days; December final data published 6 months after reference month (Financial Law constraint). - Gaps: GFS scope not full general government; debt data published annually only; consistency between GFSY, BOP, and national accounts cannot be verified. - Recommendations: transition Chart of Accounts to GFSM2001/2014 (planned around 2017), compile/disseminate full general government scope, amend Financial Law to improve timeliness and dissemination flexibility, appoint dedicated statistical positions for GFS. ### Accuracy, reliability, and statistical practices (selected) - Source data broadly suitable: enterprise surveys, administrative datasets, HIES/HBS, customs, bank returns, MOF IFS. - Key deficiencies and priorities: - NA benchmarking: current benchmarking technique prevents consistent quarterly constant-price GDP; recommendation to replace with Proportional Denton Method. - ESS: augment source data to cover full scope of transactions via banking system and nonfinancial private sector; update benchmarks/adjustments; conduct formal revision studies. - PPI: weights and sample outdated; need routine replacement procedures; production system reliance on Excel increases error risk. - GFS: move toward accrual concepts in Chart of Accounts; include sovereign wealth funds where appropriate. ### Serviceability — periodicity, timeliness, consistency, revisions - Periodicity/timeliness meeting GDDS: - CPI, GFS (frequency), monetary statistics, and BOP (annual) meet GDDS; national accounts and PPI do not meet GDDS periodicity/timeliness (first annual volume GDP published ~ eleven months after reference; PPI quarterly). - Priority dissemination improvements: - Disseminate quarterly BOP statistics, IIP data, and national accounts consistent with GDDS periodicity/timeliness. - Revision practices: - Formal revision studies generally not conducted for NA, ESS, monetary statistics, PPI; CBO posts a revision policy for monetary statistics and predetermines revision cycle for December data; MOF audit trail serves as de facto revision study for GFS. ### Accessibility, metadata, and dissemination - Accessibility improved since 2004 ROSC: six datasets publicly available with suitable documentation and contacts. - Areas for improvement: - Publish/maintain key documentation (concordances, sources and methods), general dissemination policies on websites. - Create a centralized data portal and provide data in user-friendly database/excel formats (current PDFs impede reuse). - Publish data at more granular levels with longer time series. - Keep IMF DSBB/GDDS metadata up-to-date (GDDS metadata not updated since September 2011 in places). - CBO and NCSI plans: electronic online database strategies; CBO plans to provide historical time series online by 2016. ### Assessment approach and user feedback (survey Oct–Nov 2014) - User survey: - Invited: 35 users; Responses: 23; Response rate: 66 percent. - Average rating for all official statistics: 3.7 on a 1–5 scale (1 = "poor", 5 = "excellent"), up from 3.6 in 2004. - Users highly satisfied with monetary statistics and price statistics; less satisfied with national accounts, BOP, and GFS. - 96 percent of respondents access statistics via official websites. - Users requested more detail on NA, GFS, BOP; interactive online database and improved metadata (English) requested. - Selected survey statistics: - Which statistics used regularly: NA 74; Prices 91; GFS 91; MFS 83; BOP 61 (percent). - Awareness of public release calendar: 25 Yes; 75 No (percent). - Overall quality rating: 3.72 (average across datasets). ### Summary of main shortcomings to address (prioritized) - Strengthen legal and institutional framework: update Statistical Law; clarify mandates for CBO and MOF; formalize data sharing. - Improve scope/coverage: - GFS: full scope of general government (include SWFs where appropriate). - ESS: include nonfinancial private sector financial transactions and banking-system transactions; develop IIP and external debt dissemination. - Improve national accounts: - Replace current benchmarking with Proportional Denton Method to enable consistent quarterly constant-price GDP; reduce timeliness lag (volume GDP published eleven months after reference). - Enhance PPI consistency: - Update weights and samples; implement routine replacement; modernize production system to avoid Excel workarounds; consider monthly PPI dissemination and faster timeliness. - Improve accessibility and metadata: - Centralized portal, longer and more granular series, up-to-date DSBB metadata, publish sources & methods documents. - Conduct formal revision studies across datasets to assess reliability and revision magnitudes/directions. ### Selected administrative and legal notes (dates, laws, circulars) - NCSI establishment: Royal Decree No. 31/2012 (May 26, 2012); duties elaborated Royal Decree No. 40/2014 (August 12, 2014). - Statistical Law: Royal Decree No. 29/2001. - Banking Law: Royal Decree No. 114/2000 (with amendments). - Banking circulars: - BM 913 dated May 5, 2001 (IAS 39 guidance). - BM 1058 dated September 14, 2009 (revised banking returns; reporting timelines). - MOF Financial Law: Royal Decree No. 47/98 referenced for MOF responsibilities. - Penalties under Statistical Law: confidentiality breach up to six months imprisonment and/or fine of 500 Omani Rials; refusal or incorrect reporting fine up to 300 Omani Rials (US$ 780 noted as equivalent). *Source: Data Quality Assessment Framework 2012—Summary Results (Oman).* ### 1. Data Quality Assessment Framework 2012—Summary Results ______________________________ 8 ### Data Quality Assessment Framework 2012—Summary Results ### Overall assessment and context - Oman began to participate in the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) in 2002 and started posting its metadata on the Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB) in June of the same year. - Oman meets the GDDS good practices for data coverage, periodicity, and timeliness with a few exceptions, including the timeliness of the first annual estimate of GDP in volume terms, which is available eleven months after the reference period. - Graduation to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) would require stronger and sustained effort to enhance data collection and to strengthen the legal framework for the production of macroeconomic statistics. - This assessment updates the February 2004 ROSC mission and uses the May 2012 version of the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF). It covers national accounts (NA), consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI), government finance statistics (GFS), monetary statistics, and external sector statistics (ESS). The three agencies producing statistics are the National Center for Statistics and Information (NCSI), the Central Bank of Oman (CBO), and the Ministry of Finance (MOF). - Appendix I provides an overview of Oman's dissemination practices compared to the GDDS. ### Key institutional developments and legal framework - Significant progress noted since 2004 ROSC, especially in monetary statistics, price indices, and balance of payments; introduction of the PPI; improvements in relevance, transparency, classification, and sectorization. - Establishment of the NCSI as an autonomous statistical institution on May 26, 2012 (Royal Decree No. 31/2012) and elaboration of its duties in August 2014 (Royal Decree No. 40/2014). Among the NCSI’s duties is the “technical supervision of the management and organization of statistics and information activities in Oman.” - Need to update the existing Statistical Law to provide the NCSI with an adequate legal mandate and to consider amendments that: - formally assign the CBO responsibility to compile and disseminate monetary and external sector statistics; and - amend the Financial Law to provide MOF flexibility to disseminate GFS in an additional and separate format than the State’s Final Account. The current Financial Law allows MOF to disseminate annual budgetary expenditure and revenue only six months after the reference year. ### Institutional environment and resources - Data-sharing arrangements among CBO, MOF, and NCSI are broadly well-coordinated; consistency checks could be formalized and secured via legal mechanisms. - Resources in the three agencies are broadly commensurate with existing programs, but additional staff may be needed for higher frequency data and implementation of new international standards. - CBO and NCSI have introduced processes for quality management, monitoring, and review; staff are motivated and receive training. ### Assurances of integrity and transparency - Agencies demonstrate professionalism, provide guidelines on ethical conduct, and base choices of data sources and methodologies on statistical considerations. - Transparency is supported by public availability of Banking Law, Financial Law, and Statistical Law and by disclosure on the DSBB of internal government access to statistics prior to release. - Areas for improvement: announce upcoming statistical releases to ensure equal access and disclose principles under which selected users receive prior access. These can be addressed by publishing and maintaining relevant material on the NCSI website. ### Methodological soundness - National accounts, price indices, monetary statistics, and balance of payments broadly follow internationally accepted guidelines in concepts and definitions, classifications and sectorization, and basis for recording. - GFS are yet to be prepared with the full scope of general government. Work is ongoing to transition the Chart of Accounts to GFSM2001 around 2017 and for NCSI to align with ISWGNA minimum data requirements. - Scope of monetary statistics could be improved by including Islamic banks that meet the definition of other depository corporations. Balance of payments coverage should be expanded to include financial transactions of the nonfinancial private sector. ### Accuracy, reliability, and statistical practices - Source data and validation processes are broadly adequate. Improvements needed: - Benchmarking techniques in national accounts to produce reliable time series. - Augment source data for ESS to cover full scope of transactions via the banking system, financial transactions of the nonfinancial private sector, and stocks data. - Augment benchmarks and adjustments for balance of payments source data and conduct formal revision studies. - For PPI, weights and sample source data are outdated; routine replacement of disappearing items and establishments should be instituted. ### Serviceability (periodicity, timeliness, consistency, revisions) - Periodicity and timeliness of CPI, GFS, monetary statistics, and balance of payments meet GDDS requirements. - National accounts and PPI do not meet GDDS periodicity and timeliness requirements: the first annual estimate of GDP in volume terms is published approximately eleven months after the reference period; PPI is produced quarterly. - Priority improvements: disseminate quarterly balance of payments statistics, international investment position (IIP) data, and national accounts consistent with GDDS periodicity and timeliness. Users reported that lags constrain monitoring and analysis of current economic trends. ### Accessibility and dissemination - Accessibility of official statistics has improved considerably since 2004 ROSC. The six datasets covered are publicly available and accompanied by suitable documentation; contact details are clearly identified in publications and websites. - Areas for further improvement: publish and maintain key documentation (concordances, sources and methods), a general dissemination policy on websites, create a centralized data portal, publish data at more granular levels with longer time series, and keep metadata on the IMF’s DSBB up-to-date. CBO and NCSI electronic online database strategies are positive steps. ### Assessment approach and user feedback - Quality of six macroeconomic datasets assessed using DQAF 2012 and presented on a four-point rating scale. Assessments of prerequisites of data quality and assurances of integrity (Dimensions “0” and “1”) are in Tables 2a–c; Dimensions “2”–“5” for each dataset are in Tables 3a–f. - A user survey (with CBO and NCSI assistance) asked respondents to evaluate coverage, periodicity, timeliness, accessibility, and overall quality. Results: - Average rating for all official statistics was 3.7 on a 1–5 scale (1 = "poor", 5 = "excellent"), slightly improved from 3.6 in 2004. - Users are highly satisfied with monetary statistics and price statistics, less with national accounts, balance of payments, and GFS. - Users want more detail on national accounts, GFS, and balance of payments. On periodicity and timeliness, users were satisfied with prices, monetary statistics, and GFS, but less satisfied with national accounts and balance of payments. - 96 percent of respondents access statistics via the official websites for all sectors. Users expressed less satisfaction with metadata accessibility and requested an interactive online database to select time series and frequency. ### Summary of main shortcomings to address (prioritized) - Strengthen the legal and institutional framework (update Statistical Law; clarify mandates for CBO and MOF). - Improve scope and coverage of GFS and ESS (full scope of general government for GFS; cover nonfinancial private sector financial transactions and banking-system transactions for ESS). - Improve national accounts benchmarking techniques and timeliness (first annual GDP estimate published ~ eleven months after reference period). - Enhance PPI consistency (update weights and samples; institute routine replacement procedures). - Improve accessibility and metadata dissemination (centralized portal, more granular series, updated DSBB metadata). - Conduct formal revision studies to assess reliability of statistics. *Source: Data Quality Assessment Framework 2012—Summary Results (Oman).* ### 0. Prerequisites of quality ### 0. Prerequisites of quality ### Assurances of integrity — Ministry of Finance (MOF) - Legal and institutional environment - Responsibility to collect, process, and disseminate fiscal data of government is clearly assigned in the Financial Law, Royal Decree No. 47/98. - The Statistical Law (Royal Decree No 29/2001,) does not support the MOF with the authority to collect data from government units. - Resources - None of the current MOF officials have attended an IMF course based on Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001; however the staff is well trained for their current needs. - The MOF has no dedicated statistical positions for the compilation of GFS. - The Civil Service Law was revised, whereby conditions of employment are determined evenly across ministries and no longer at the discretion of ministries; this has increased the attractiveness of the MOF as employer and reduced staff turnover. - Efficient use of resources is ensured through sound performance management, evaluations and training. - Relevance - Fiscal data are used by the MOF, Ministry of Planning, line ministries, other policymakers (including the CBO), and the Fund for surveillance purposes. - User needs other than that of government are not actively sought. - Other quality management - Quality management is well exercised by the MOF, including measures to control and audit all relevant processes. - Institutional integrity - Financial Law (Royal Decree No. 47/98) assigns responsibility for compiling government accounts. - State Audit Law (Royal Decree No. 112/2011) and Protection of Public Property and Preventing of Conflict of Interest Law (Royal Decree No. 112/2011) strengthen controls on compilation of data and staff integrity. - Ministry of Civil Services appoints staff through an open public enrollment process that includes a targeted skills assessment. - Professionalism promoted through formal and on-the-job training and participation in seminars, courses, and workshops. - Transparency - Methodology for fiscal statistics is promoted by wide availability of the Financial Law and regulations related to budgeting and planning. - MOF issues financial circulars annually to spell out budgeting processes and terms/conditions for compiling government accounts. - Fiscal data are well identified as compiled by the MOF. - The extent of internal government access to statistics prior to public release is not publicly identified and no advance notice is given of methodological changes. - Ethical standards - Ethical standards supported through legal framework applicable to all government employees; government employees are subject to a code of conduct. - Sound management, mentoring, and peer review reinforce expected staff behavior. ### Assurances of integrity — National Center for Statistics and Information (NCSI) - Legal and institutional environment - Royal Decree No. 31/2012 establishes the NCSI as an autonomous national statistics office. - Historical Statistical Law (Royal Decree No. 29/2001) establishes authority for coordination, collection, processing, and disseminating national statistics in Oman. - Amendments are required to vest the Statistical Law’s authority within the NCSI as no effective Statistical Law currently exists. - Data sharing and coordination largely adequate and functions due to informal relationships without formal documentation. - Mission observed NCSI’s compliance with legal obligations and work to encourage effective statistical reporting by respondents. - Further work recommended to improve reporting respondent burden to inform future planning. - Resources - Staff, facilities, computing resources, and financing are commensurate with the current statistical program. - Further resources from government are required to expand the national accounts to meet future policy analysis. - NCSI is developing appropriate Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) to improve staff performance. - Relevance - NCSI actively engages with government and regional users such as GCC-Stat. - Minimal consultation with key users outside of government. - Mission recommends establishment of a representative user advisory group for macroeconomic statistics. - Other quality management - Quality is managed via existing informal relationships and minimal formal management information; minimal formal material available. - No training program. - Institutional integrity - Royal Decree No. 31/2012 supports professional independence by establishing NCSI as an autonomous statistical agency. - Staff are appointed based on merits and capabilities. - NCSI agency head (Executive Director) is appointed by the Sultan of Oman via a Royal Decree. - Choice of data sources is based on statistical considerations only, and statistics are disseminated according to their availability. - Transparency - Historical Statistical Law is available upon request in hardcopy in Arabic and English; however, the Statistical Law does not apply to the NCSI. - All publications clearly identify the NCSI as the source. - There is a small volume of government access to statistics prior to public release, of which the public is not informed. - Advance notice is given of significant changes to the statistics. - Ethical standards - Staff behavior guided by Oman civil service rules/regulations. - Royal Decrees No. 101/96 and 39/82 establish terms/conditions for staff conduct and sanctions; penalties include salary deductions and/or dismissal. - No formal procedures for staff to encourage adoption of these rules (e.g., signing an undertaking). ### Methodological soundness, accuracy, serviceability, and accessibility — National Accounts (NCSI) - Methodological soundness - National accounts compiled according to the 1993 SNA; NCSI developing plans for implementation of the 2008 SNA. - Oman’s national accounts comprise a subset of the minimum requirement specified by ISWGNA. - Documentation outlining deviations from the international standard is not available. - Elemental classifications consistent with historical versions of international standards; deviations are minimal. - Most transactions recorded on a basis consistent with the 2008 SNA. Transactions involving general government are derived from GFS which is cash based. - Source data and statistical techniques - Source data broadly suitable; Government Finance Statistics need to be moved to an accrual basis. - Implementation of PPIs for deflating national accounts is noted as laudable. - The double indicator method is used to derive industry value added in many industries; however the deflation of net taxes on products needs attention. - Additional development required to support the 2008 SNA; existing methodology to derive quarterly national accounts should be replaced with the international standard. - Accuracy and reliability - Accuracy of source data broadly suitable; assessment is routinely undertaken. - Validation of intermediate data and outputs is undertaken and generally suitable; improved from the 2004 ROSC due to SUT implementation. - No revision studies are currently conducted; this should be addressed. - Serviceability - Periodicity and timeliness: timeliness does not meet GDDS (nine months after reference); volume estimates of GDP are first published eleven months after the reference period. - Consistency: annual national accounts are consistent throughout the published time series commencing in 1998 and can be reconciled with other macroeconomic statistics including balance of payments. - Revision policy and practice: revisions undertaken according to an established timeframe; timetable should be published. Revision analyses are not undertaken. - Accessibility - National accounts accessible through the NCSI website and supported by a web based client servicing. - Internal government users obtain access prior to release; principles and process for prior access should be published. - Metadata: summary detail of data sources included, but detailed information on methods is lacking. GDDS metadata requires updating. - Assistance to users: free user assistance available via the web-based client service tool; management information required to assess effectiveness. ### Methodological soundness, accuracy, serviceability, and accessibility — Consumer Price Index (CPI) - Methodological soundness - NCSI strives to reflect concepts and definitions in the 2004 ILO CPI Manual and the 2008 SNA. - CPI weights include most types of resident households, including foreigners; production of own consumption is included (not reflecting international best practice for a headline measure). - CPI covers COICOP groups 01 to 12, except alcohol. CPI does not include fixed capital formation; imputed rents of owner-occupied dwellings are included. - CPI classified using COICOP up to 4-digit-level. - Basis for recording: CPI weights constructed using market prices; collected prices relate to actual transaction prices. Weight of second-hand cars is not a net weight. - Source data and techniques - Weights derived from the 2008/2009/2010 Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES). - Outlets selected based on local knowledge; no sample frame (may bias sample). - Price collection excludes Musandam and Al Wusta governorates. - Prices for missing items imputed; permanently missing items replaced. - Elementary indexes calculated as ratio of geometric prices and aggregated using the Modified Laspeyres formula. - Accuracy and reliability - HIES data reviewed when updating weights; all price data carefully checked. - Intermediate data compared to relevant components of other indexes. - Revision studies: when new weights introduced they are compared with old set; studies not published. - Serviceability - Periodicity and timeliness: CPI produced monthly and disseminated 1 month after the reference month (in line with GDDS). - Consistency: discrepancy in inflation rates for 2013 between old 2000=100 and new 2012=100 index due to incorrect rebasing. Consistent time series available for 2012=100 index from 2002 (linked to old base indexes). - CPI weights consistent with household final consumption as recorded in National Accounts. - Revision policy: no regular schedule for updating weights; international best practice recommends updating every five years at minimum. Currently weights are up to date. - CPI data revised in event of error and clearly identified in publications with a footnote. - Accessibility - CPI published in several publications presenting actual index values and changes. Longer monthly time series require combination of publications from different periods. - Written explanations published only in quarterly Economic Review, which contains contributions of main groups to overall inflation. - No formal preannounced schedule for CPI publications, but data are available to all users at the same time. - Metadata accessibility: detailed methodological manual published on NCSI website in Arabic and English; manual currently being updated. - Assistance to users: publications contain a general contact point; contacts rely partly on informal relations. ### Methodological soundness, accuracy, serviceability, and accessibility — Producer Price Index (PPI) - Methodological soundness - NCSI strives to reflect IMF’s 2004 PPI Manual and the 2008 SNA, but deficiencies exist. - Scope: PPI covers ISIC groups (C) Mining and quarrying, (D) Manufacturing and (E) Electricity and water, covering about 95 percent of total production. - Prices collected separately for domestic and export markets. - Classification/sectorization: PPI uses CPC 2 and ISIC 3.1; ISIC 4 not yet implemented. PPI should be compiled by products as well as activities; Omani PPI compiled using both CPC and ISIC, but data by ISIC disseminated annually only. - Basis for recording: factory-gate (basic) prices excluding taxes and transportation surcharges. - Source data and techniques - Weights derived from Industrial Survey of 2007; selection by cut-off sampling on total value of production. - Current weights/samples are outdated. - Missing prices imputed; products and establishments replacement managed via separate Excel-files outside compilation system (inconvenient, increases risk of errors). - Elementary aggregates calculated using Jevons formula; higher level indexes using geometric Laspeyres formula. - Accuracy and reliability - Source data for weights and establishment sample thoroughly scrutinized; price quotations carefully checked. - Components of PPI compared to corresponding CPI components. - PPI has not yet been revised or updated since introduction. - Serviceability - Periodicity and timeliness: PPI produced quarterly and disseminated 3 months after the reference quarter (not in line with GDDS). - Consistency: consistent time series available from 2007. Weights based on Industrial Survey reflect total value of production and are consistent with the SNA. - Revision policy: no regular schedule for updating weights; international best practice recommends updating every five years at minimum. Revisions occur only for errors and are identified in publications with a footnote. - Accessibility - PPI published in several publications with actual values and changes; longer quarterly time series require combination of publications. - Written explanations of developments published in the quarterly Economic Review. - No formal preannounced schedule for PPI publications, but data available to all users simultaneously. - Data by activity disseminated annually only (does not conform to international best practice). - Metadata accessibility: detailed methodological manual published on NCSI website in Arabic and English. - Assistance to users: publications contain a general contact point; contacts rely partly on informal relations. ### Methodological soundness, accuracy, serviceability, and accessibility — Government Finance Statistics (GFS) - Methodological soundness - Fiscal data broadly follow the Government Finance Statistics Manual (GFSM 1986). - MOF bridges fiscal accounts to GFSM 2001 cash bases of accounting format when compiling the GFS Yearbook (GFSY). - Some concepts (consumption of fixed capital, other accounts payable, imputations) are not captured. - Scope and classification - GFS scope not fully consistent with international standards; gaps remain. - Only revenue, expense and balance sheet flows data of the budgetary central government are published, although stock positions are also available. - Sovereign Wealth Funds are excluded in the compilation of GFS for the budgetary central government. - Classification and sectorization broadly in line with GFSM 2001 guidelines; current defense and security expenditure includes compensation of employees and acquisition of nonfinancial assets that cannot be delineated. - Basis for recording and source data - Transactions data recorded on cash basis. Stock position data available at face or book value only. - MOF obtains source data for budgetary central government ministries and units from comprehensive and fully electronic and hard copy administrative records. - For other units the MOF does not have a secure collection remit supported by the Statistical Law. - Non civil service ministries data are recorded on an aggregated level with significant expenditure appropriated to an inappropriate classification. - All source data are received timely. - Accuracy and reliability - Source data mainly administrative records and sufficiently assessed through internal and external audit controls. - Statistical techniques generally sound for administrative sources. - Assessment and validation of intermediate data and outputs are strict due to legal requirements and well-established management practices. - Revision studies: well-documented audit trail serves as revision studies; audit reports document discrepancies. - Serviceability - Periodicity and timeliness: revenue and expenditure data for budgetary central government disseminated annually and monthly (adheres to GDDS). Debt data are only disseminated annually (does not adhere to GDDS good practices). - Monthly operations data generally published within 45 days after reference month; December final data published 6 months after the reference month. - Consistency: GFS data consistent internally and over time. Consistency between GFSY, balance of payments, and national accounts cannot be verified. - Revision policy and practice: determined by internal and external controls mandated by legal framework; revisions are affected after audits and are immaterial in practice. - Accessibility - GFS accessibility could be improved: annual GFS only disseminated in the GFSY. - Fiscal data available monthly in Excel or PDF on CBO and NCSI websites, and annually on MOF website. - No database containing a long time series. - Metadata accessibility: summarized metadata accessible via IMF’s DSBB website (GDDS metadata), but no cross-reference or hyperlink provided on national websites. - Assistance to users: users can contact MOF, CBO or NCSI through centralized contact points. *Source: _cr15159 - 0. Prerequisites of quality* ### 2. Methodological soundness ### 2. Methodological soundness ### Monetary statistics — Concepts, scope, and classification - Concepts and definitions: Implementation of the key recommendations of the 2004 ROSC has significantly improved the concepts and definitions used by the CBO to compile monetary statistics in broad conformity with the guidelines outlined in the MFSM and MFSCG. - Scope: The DC survey covers the CBO and the 16 commercial banks. Islamic banks are not yet included in the monetary statistics published by the CBO. The CBO does not compile the other financial corporations survey (OFCS) and financial corporations survey (FCS). - Classification/sectorization: The classification and sectorization of financial instruments follow the guidelines outlined in the MFSM. - Basis for recording: Beginning in January 2001, the CBO and the commercial banks have been following the IAS 39 to value financial assets and financial liabilities (see CBO, Banking Circular, BM 913 dated May 5, 2001), hence basis for recording for compiling monetary statistics follow the recommendations of the MFSM and MFSCG. ### Monetary statistics — Source data, assessment, and techniques - Source data: The source data for compiling monetary statistics are the balance sheet of the CBO and the balance sheets of commercial banks, which are prepared sufficiently timely and in accordance with the guidelines outlined in the MFSM. - Assessment of source data: The CBO routinely assesses the accuracy of the source data using an automated validation procedure (using a macro program). When inconsistencies occur, the CBO takes steps to make necessary corrections. - Statistical techniques: Sound statistical techniques are used. Monetary data are based on the balance sheets of the CBO and commercial banks. The CBO does not use secondary sources. - Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs: The CBO routinely assesses and validates the consistency between the source data for monetary statistics with other information obtained from other departments. ### Monetary statistics — Revisions, periodicity, consistency, and accessibility - Revision studies: The CBO does not have a policy of regular revision studies for monetary statistics. Data are considered final when first released, except for December data. - Periodicity and timeliness: The periodicity and timeliness of monetary statistics (monetary survey, the CBO balance sheet, and commercial bank’s balance sheet) meet the GDDS recommendations. - Consistency: Monetary data published by the CBO are released in consistent historical series. Monetary data presented in the sectoral balance sheets of the CBO and commercial banks are internally consistent. Monetary data are largely consistent with the balance of payments statistics. Data on financial accounts for government finance statistics are not available. - Revision policy and practice: The revision policy for monetary statistics is posted on the CBO website. The revision cycle for monetary statistics is predetermined and occurs after the financial statements for the year are audited. The provisional and revised data are clearly identified by footnotes in the publications. - Data accessibility: - Monetary statistics are presented in an aggregated form. The table “Commercial Bank’s Combined Balance Sheet” has lack of detailed sectoral breakdown. - The CBO compiles monetary statistics by the 25th of the following month, and are regularly posted on the CBO website within 45 days. - The advanced release calendar is posted on the CBO website. - Time series for monetary statistics in a format that is easy for use and reuse are only available upon request. - Metadata accessibility: The CBO disseminates metadata for monetary statistics on the IMF’s DSBB (GDDS metadata), which were updated in September 2011. A link to the DSBB website is posted on the CBO website. Explanatory notes to statistical tables are posted on the CBO website, but not in the hardcopy publications. - Assistance to users: The CBO’s statistical bulletins and Annual Report clearly identify contact points for inquiries by mail, telephone, facsimile, or email. Data in an Excel format are available upon request. The CBO website allows the users to submit their data requests online. The CBO responds promptly to these data requests and keeps documentation of the responses. ### External sector statistics (ESS) — Concepts, scope, and classification - Concepts and definitions: ESS broadly follow the fifth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual (BPM5). To adhere to BPM6, recording of selected goods and FDI transactions should be fine-tuned. - Scope: The BOP scope is broadly consistent with international standards; however several deficiencies remain, mainly related to private sector transactions and stocks, FDI, and goods and services. - Classification/sectorization: Classification and sectorization are broadly in line with BPM5 guidelines; shortcomings include classification of selected goods, insurance services, and transactions of the sovereign wealth funds. - Basis for recording: For the most part, transactions data are valued at market prices. A number of transactions are recorded on an accrual basis in accordance with BPM5. In most cases, where transaction estimates are derived from the stock data, rough valuation adjustments are estimated. ### External sector statistics — Source data, techniques, and validation - Source data: Coverage of compilation program is insufficient. Enhancement of banking reporting system and introduction of new surveys to cover gaps in recording goods and services components and in stocks statistics are needed. Timeliness of source data supports annual but not quarterly compilation. - Assessment of source data: The CBO staff ensure consistency with the requirements of the BPM5 through coordination/discussions with the primary source data providers and developed procedures to adjust source data. - Statistical techniques: Generally, data compilation employs sound statistical techniques to deal with data sources; however several benchmark collections are to be updated and there are limited sources to make adjustments to source data. - Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs: Intermediate results are validated against other independent data sources when possible. - Revision studies: Formal revision studies and analyses are not conducted, while internal monitoring and analysis are performed. ### External sector statistics — Periodicity, consistency, accessibility, and metadata - Periodicity and timeliness: Balance of payments statistics are disseminated annually with six months timeliness, which adheres to the GDDS recommendations. Quarterly balance of payments estimates are compiled for internal purposes (an input to GDP). Data for comprehensive IIP is under development. - Consistency: Balance of payments data are consistent internally and over time and generally consistent or reconcilable with other datasets. - Revision policy and practice: In recent years, the revision policy and practice has been refined. Data for a new year are preliminary and subject to revisions during the following year. Public is informed of revisions via explanatory notes included in the CBO’s Annual Report. Formal studies and analyses of revisions have not been carried out. - Data accessibility: - Data are disseminated in accordance with BPM5 standard components. Supplementary publications on specific components are available. - Separate ESS publication is to be considered. - Work is ongoing to ensure dissemination of time-series in database format. - A schedule announces in advance the approximate date the statistics are to be released, although there is no precise date. - Metadata accessibility: The balance of payments metadata are published on the IMF’s DSBB website and the country notes section in the Balance of Payments Statistics Yearbook, Part 3. Separate publication on ESS data sources and methods is considered. - Assistance to users: A “Feedback” box is posted on the CBO website for comments/questions of users. The ERSD is specified as an entry point for the data queries. Contact information is also provided on the IMF’s DSBB website. ### Key methodological findings and gaps - Monetary statistics: - Islamic banks excluded from ODC coverage. - No OFCS and FCS compilation; limited sectoral breakdown in published tables (Commercial Bank’s Combined Balance Sheet). - No regular revision studies; December data treated as exception. - Timeliness meets GDDS; compilation by the 25th and posting within 45 days. - External sector statistics: - ESS follow BPM5; migration to BPM6 requires fine-tuning of selected goods and FDI recording. - Source data coverage insufficient for full quarterly compilation; enhancements to banking reporting and new surveys needed. - Data disseminated annually within six months; quarterly internal estimates exist; IIP under development. ### Staff recommendations relevant to methodological soundness - Monetary statistics: - Include the Islamic banks in the coverage of other depository corporations (ODCs). - Improve the presentation of table “Commercial Bank’s Combined Balance Sheet” in the CBO’s statistical bulletins by expanding the sectoral breakdown for loans, debt securities, and deposits. - Explore the feasibility to collect data from the major other financial corporations, such as pension funds and insurance corporations to compile other financial corporations survey (OFCS) and financial corporations survey (FCS) in the future. - Balance of payments statistics: - Elaborate the plan and timetable to migrate ESS to BPM6 methodology, identifying actions and key target dates. - Increase the number of staff dedicated to the compilation of ESS to ensure the smooth migration to BPM6 and development of IIP. - Disseminate international investment position statistics and external debt. - Improve the adjustments in the estimation of data on foreign trade, including the process to estimate trade via free economic zones, and on international trade in services, based on expanded collection and improved techniques. *Source: _cr15159 - 2. Methodological soundness (IMF).* ### 1. Replace the current benchmarking technique with a standard technique such as the ### _cr15159 - 1. Replace the current benchmarking technique with a standard technique such as the ### National accounts — key recommendations and developments - Replace the current benchmarking technique with a standard technique such as the Proportional Denton Method to enable preparation of consistent quarterly time series. - (i) A quarterly time series will be updated and published each quarter to reflect revised data. - (ii) The Denton Method will be used to post data after calculating or estimating annual data. - Publish documentation outlining the regular and transparent schedule for which national accounts are revised. The NCSI is currently updating its website and will shortly determine a timetable for subsequent publication. - Ensure volume movements for taxes less subsides on products reflect volume movements of the underlying products. "The note will be taken into consideration for future development." - Construct and publish a policy documenting the users receiving statistics prior to release, the principles under which this disclosure occurs, and the process by which access can be requested. "The note will be taken into consideration for future development." - Legal and institutional environment: - Royal Decree No. 31/2012 establishes the National Center for Statistics & Information (NCSI) as an autonomous national statistics office. - Royal Decree No. 40/2014 was issued on August 12, 2014, and defines one of the NCSI’s duties as “technical supervision of the management and organization of statistics and information activities in Oman”. - The Statistical Law is provided through Royal Decree No. 29/2001; amendments are being drafted to vest responsibilities with the NCSI as Oman’s Statistical Law has not been updated. - Data sharing and coordination: - Exchange of unpublished data to the NCSI is effective and legislated (Article 4, Royal Decree No. 29/2001). - Current arrangements are largely based on informal relationships; recommendations call for formalized arrangements to document existing data exchange arrangements. - Confidentiality and legal sanctions: - Historical Statistical Law prohibits publication of individual data unless in “aggregate form”. - NCSI uses suppression under the “rule of three”. - Penalties for breaching confidentiality: up to six months imprisonment and/or a fine of 500 Omani Rials ($US 1,300). - Statistical reporting mandated; noncompliance fine of 300 Omani Rials ($US 780). - NCSI typically achieves survey response rates over 90%. - Recommendations (selected): - Develop a new Statistical Law to clarify responsibilities and strengthen inter-agency coordination. - Establish formalized arrangements with other government units to document data exchange. - Publish a statement outlining the operation of the Statistical Advisory Committee (SAC) and legislative arrangements for exchange of unpublished individual data. - Construct an estimate for the respondent burden of each survey instrument (using observational studies and/or survey instrument information). ### Consumer Price Index (CPI) - Continue to explore ways of fine-tuning the rebasing of Consumer Price Index (CPI); notably, set the annual average of 2012 to 100, while allowing monthly changes. NCSI rebased the CPI on a monthly basis from 2012 and it will be available on the NCSI website ASAP. - Disseminate detailed monthly time series on the NCSI website in a user-friendly format. NCSI launched new website and the time series will be available in PDF format and we will make sure to make it user friendly ASAP. - Provide explanations on current period developments of the index in the monthly publication. A footnote has been added in the NCSI monthly publication mentioning all changes and explanations for new index in the NCSI website. ### Producer Price Index (PPI) - Update the production system to facilitate replacement of items and establishments consistent with the producer price index (PPI) manual to facilitate monthly publication of PPI. "The NCSI has commenced implementation." - Establish procedures for regular updates of the weights and the item/establishment samples consistent with availability of contemporary source data. "The recommendation will be taken in consideration as part of future development." - Provide detailed time series on the NCSI website, readily available and in a convenient format. "The time series will be available on the NCIS website in PDF format and publication in excel format will be considered as part of future development." ### Monetary statistics — Central Bank of Oman (CBO) responses and actions - Include the Islamic banks in the coverage of other depository corporations (ODCs). Inclusion of Islamic banks and Windows in coverage of ODCs following detailed mapping to align balance sheets of conventional and Islamic banks has been completed. The Combined Monetary Survey is being published in CBO’s Monthly and Quarterly Bulletins commencing the current year for data beginning from the year 2013. - Improve presentation of “Commercial Bank’s Combined Balance Sheet” by expanding sectoral breakdown for loans, debt securities and deposits. Institutional and sectoral classification on assets and liabilities is being published commencing with the 2015 statistical bulletins. - Explore feasibility to collect data from other financial corporations such as Pension Funds and insurance companies to compile other financial corporation surveys in the future. Currently, deposits and loans of Pension Funds and Insurance companies with the banking system are captured and separately shown in the balance sheet of commercial banks under financial corporations. The feasibility of obtaining detailed sheets from Pension Funds and Insurance Companies in the future will be investigated as per recommendation of the ROSC Mission. ### Balance of payments statistics — actions and issues - Elaborate plan and timetable to migrate external sector statistics (ESS) to BPM6, identifying actions and key target dates. CBO currently produces BOP statistics based on BPM5. Migration to BPM6 required additional surveys; process has been underway and "we expect to finalize the migration during 2015 itself as the mapping has already been done." - Increase staff dedicated to ESS compilation to ensure smooth migration to BPM6 and development of International Investment Position (IIP). CBO has initiated recruitment of additional staff. - Disseminate IIP statistics and external debt. Presently IIP is prepared on an annual basis for internal use but has not been published due to gaps (households’ foreign assets/liabilities and some state-owned companies). Authorities are narrowing and closing data gaps and hope to publish IIP once data are more representative and comprehensive. - Improve adjustments in estimation of foreign trade data, including trade via free economic zones, and on international trade in services based on expanded collection and improved techniques. Issue: information on trade between free zones and the rest of the world is not fully captured by the Directorate General of Customs due to definitional aspects; while data between Oman and free zones is included in customs data, trade between free zones and the rest of the world is not being captured. Authorities will investigate the matter in depth. ### Administrative and publication notes from the document - Document title components and administrative details present in the content: - Report type: REPORT ON THE OBSERVANCE OF STANDARDS AND CODES (ROSC)—DATA MODULE VOLUME III - Prepared by: The Statistics Department - Approved by: Louis Marc Ducharme and Ahmed, Masood - Date appearing in document: June 12, 2015 - Selected organizational acronyms appearing in the document: - NCSI National Center for Statistics and Information - CBO Central Bank of Oman - BPM5 Balance of Payments Manual, fifth edition - BPM6 Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, sixth edition *Source: _cr15159 - 1. Replace the current benchmarking technique with a standard technique such as the (PDF), June 12, 2015.* ### 0.2 Resources ### 0.2 Resources ### 0.2.1 Staff, facilities, computing resources, and financing - Staff responsible for compilation of national accounts: - Seven full time staff comprise the Director (National Accounts) and six compilers. - Task responsibility is currently allocated to achieve comparable workloads and similarity of economic subject matter. - Six of the seven staff have a university degree in economics and/or statistics; the seventh has a high school diploma. - All staff have more than five years of experience and turnover is minimal as a result of a recent decree that standardized salaries and employee benefits for each level across Oman’s civil service from 2014. - External review and proposed expansion: - A recent external review recommended additional staff to achieve an expanded set of national accounts to meet Oman's policy needs. - A proposal is currently before the Ministry of Finance (MOF) to provide additional resources to hire eleven staff. - Priority compilation tasks: - Compilation of quarterly volume estimates of value added. - Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by final expenditure. - Flash estimates of GDP — considered highly feasible given approximately half of Oman's value added comes from oil and natural gas for which real time, monthly data are readily available. - Facilities, computing, and funding: - All staff have access to appropriate accommodation, hardware, and software. - The NCSI leased a new office building from 2013 equipped with new office furniture and equipment. - Computing facilities are connected by a network and data are backed-up each week. - Funding for the identified needs of the statistical program is broadly adequate. ### 0.2.2 Measures to ensure efficient use of resources - Performance management: - The NCSI is developing a framework to assign Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) to individual staff and improve the quality of periodic reviews. - Staff are currently assessed by their supervisor and receive a discretionary bonus commensurate with the assessment. - Funding and planning: - The review of national accounts provided a basis for which future resources can be estimated. - The majority of the NCSI's funding is provided by the State Budget and is subject to review by the board of directors and the MOF. - Example of other sources of funding is revenue from sales of publications. --- ### 0.3 Relevance ### 0.3.1 User consultation and relevance monitoring - Current practices: - NCSI staff undertake consultation with users in government agencies via informal relationships established over a lengthy time period. - Formalized consultation arrangements include a bi-annual gathering of up to forty users. - Consultation with users outside of government is limited to interaction via brochures when the user is selected as a survey respondent and other informal contacts. - A user survey was conducted in 2009 and 2010 and considered a one off response to the global financial crisis. - A formalized user advisory committee does not exist. - Recommendation: - Establish a formal user advisory group for macroeconomic statistics to assess relevance of current data and identify new and emerging data requirements on a regular basis. - Coordination and representation: - NCSI staff actively participate in regional statistical coordination activity undertaken by the Statistical Center for the Cooperation Council for the Arab Countries of the Gulf (GCC-Stat). - Senior NCSI staff attends selected international meetings; the NCSI may delegate representation in international forums to regional delegates from GCC-Stat. --- ### 0.4 Other quality management ### 0.4.1 Processes to focus on quality - Induction and culture: - New national accounts staff are provided with dedicated one-on-one coaching from experienced, senior staff to reinforce the importance of statistical quality. - Experienced, senior staff demonstrate a shared commitment to statistical quality. - Gaps: - No formal training regime, process or public information exists to reinforce quality and demonstrate the associated trade-offs. ### 0.4.2 Processes to monitor quality during planning and implementation - Strengths: - National accounts staff demonstrate a strong understanding and commitment to coherence of published aggregates. - Staff ability is enhanced by strong interpersonal relationships between data-providers and readiness to correct errors in source data. - Limitations: - A limited suite of information, such as the survey response rate, is available to make an objective quality assessment. - No management information is available to monitor the quality of intervention by national accounts staff beyond derived statistical metrics such as the statistical discrepancy. - Recommendation: - Develop and implement formalized strategies to reinforce quality within the NCSI. Possible activities include: - (a) development of a standard set of quality metrics to be compiled with statistical data provided to inform editing decisions made by national accounts; and - (b) a training course, using historical case studies, to demonstrate the impact upon decision making and resulting importance of quality and relevant monitoring processes. The course would be undertaken by all staff upon commencement and after completing a five year period of service. --- ### 1. Assurances of integrity ### 1.1 Institutional Integrity - Professional independence and appointment: - Royal Decree No. 31/2012 supports professional independence by establishing the NCSI as an autonomous statistical agency. - The historical Statistical Law and the 2012 decree do not explicitly prohibit interference from other agencies in the compilation and/or dissemination of statistical information. - NCSI head (Executive Director) is appointed by the Sultan of Oman via a Royal Decree; details of the Executive Director’s tenure and reporting arrangements are not explicitly stated in legislation. - The mission recommended the new Statistical Law includes provisions specifying the choice, tenure and reporting arrangements of the NCSI Executive Director to reflect international best practice. - Staff appointment process: - Staff are appointed through merit based civil service processes conducted in consultation with the NCSI’s management. - Vacancies are reported via a job description to the Ministry of Civil Service who liaise with the Ministry of Manpower to identify applicants. - Applicants complete a written test specified by the NCSI and receive a preliminary ranking. The top five applicants are interviewed and receive a final ranking from two NCSI staff and one delegate from the Ministry of Civil Service. - Staff participate in regional and international workshops and training conducted by GCC-Stat and the Fund. ### 1.1.2 Statistical choices and dissemination - Choices of data sources, techniques, and dissemination are informed solely by statistical considerations. - Examples: - Direct implementation of an industry classification closely aligned to the International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities (ISIC). - Quarterly national accounts are finalized by the end of the third month following the end of the reference period and delivered to the NCSI Information Directorate for inclusion in the monthly bulletin. - The monthly bulletin is disseminated in the first week of the month. Annual national accounts are disseminated in the relevant chapter of the Statistical Yearbook immediately following finalization. ### 1.1.3 Commenting on misuse - The NCSI is entitled to, and always contacts relevant media when data are misinterpreted or misused. - The Information Directorate monitors all media channels to identify references to its statistics. ### 1.2 Transparency - Terms and conditions and confidentiality: - The historical Statistical Law is available in hardcopy, both in Arabic and English, and is available upon request. - NCSI survey forms state data are being collected under the historical Statistical Law and note all data will be kept confidential and used for statistical purposes. - Internal governmental access: - Internal governmental access to statistics prior to release occurs infrequently according to existing informal relationships; these arrangements can be inferred from the 2004 ROSC, but resulting recommendations have not been addressed. - Product identification and advance notice: - All publications clearly identify the NCSI as the source; branding is modern and uniform. - Advance notice of significant changes is given to users through television and radio interviews, and the NCSI website. ### 1.3 Ethical standards - Staff conduct rules: - Staff behavior is guided by the Civil Service Law established by Royal Decrees No. 101/1996 and 39/1982. - Penalties include salary deductions and/or dismissal. - Legal penalties and recommendations: - Article 10 of the historical Statistical Law sets a maximum penalty of 500 Omani Rials (US$ 1,300) and/or six months imprisonment for staff who knowingly collect or publish incorrect data. - Staff are advised of these arrangements during on the job training but not required to formally acknowledge their legal obligations. - The mission recommended development of documentation outlining the legal obligations of staff and asking individual staff (both new and existing) to sign a corresponding undertaking. --- ### 2. Methodological soundness ### 2.1 Concepts and definitions - Standards: - National accounts are compiled according to the guidelines of System of National Accounts (1993 SNA). - Annual time series commence in 1998. - NCSI is reviewing source data collection to collect additional detail required for the 2008 System of National Accounts (2008 SNA), with a view to implementation in the coming years. - No documentation is available to describe current deviations from the international standard. ### 2.2 Scope - Compiled accounts and tables: - Annual value added and GDP at current and constant prices by activity. - Annual expenditures of GDP at current and constant prices. - Annual value added components at current prices by activity. - Sequence of accounts for the total economy (until net lending) with an annual frequency. - Annual rest of the world accounts (until net lending). - Annual general government sector accounts (until net lending). - Quarterly value added and GDP at current prices by activity. - Not compiled (recommended to achieve ISWGNA minimum): - Annual non-financial corporation sector accounts (until net lending). - Annual financial corporations accounts (until net lending). - Annual household sector accounts (until net lending). - Annual non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) sector accounts (until net lending). - Quarterly sequence of accounts for the total economy. - Quarterly rest of the world accounts (until net lending). - Quarterly value added and GDP at constant prices by activity. - Quarterly expenditure of GDP at current and constant prices. - Coverage of ISWGNA recommended tables: - Oman compiles four of the eleven recommended tables and accounts. - Differences from 2008 SNA: - Goods sent/received abroad for processing without a change in economic ownership are recorded as imports and exports. - Illegal output sold to willing buyers is not considered material and is not accounted for. - Weapons systems are classified outside the asset boundary and therefore included as consumption expenditure. - Valuables and historical monuments are not classified as capital formation and are recorded as consumption expenditure. - Agricultural work-in-progress is not recorded as output of the agriculture industry, but is recorded when the product changes economic ownership. - Systems and standard applications computer software and databases are not classified as capital formation; treatment will be reviewed during 2008 SNA implementation. - Entertainment, literary or artistic originals; research and development products; and leases and other transferable contracts such as purchased goodwill are not considered capital formation. - Recommendation: - The mission recommended the current review of the treatment of systems and standard applications computer software and databases should include all known deviations from 2008 SNA. Documentation outlining the deviations and the rationale should be published. ### 2.3 Classification/sectorization - Elemental classifications: - Consistent with international standards: SNA institutional sector; ISIC Rev 3.1; CPC; COICOP; COFOG. - Little information outlining deviations from reference classifications and aggregations; deviations are understood to be minimal. - Implementation note: - The NCSI intend to implement ISIC Rev. 4 in 2015. - Recommendation: - Produce documentation to outline deviations between international standards and elemental classifications used; publish and update annually and include a concordance between elemental classification and publication categories. ### 2.4 Basis for recording #### 2.4.1 Valuation - Valuation rules consistent with 2008 SNA: - Market output is valued at basic prices. - Output for own use is valued at equivalent market prices. - Sales and excise taxes are included in the valuation of intermediate consumption. Oman has no value added taxes. - Corrections can be made if transfer prices were detected; no cases have been identified. - The purchasers’ price is estimated by deducting the value of subsidies on products. - Total imports and exports of goods and services are valued on an f.o.b. basis as the value of insurance and freight is available from the customs dataset. - Exchange rates: - Transactions in foreign currency are converted using exchange rates provided by the Directorate General of Customs. - The NCSI undertakes no adjustment to ensure these are mid-point exchange rates as required by 2008 SNA. #### 2.4.2 Recording basis - Accrual vs cash: - Most transactions are recorded on an accrual basis including audited financial data provided by the Muscat Securities Market, most data collected via an enterprise survey for many non-financial corporations, and work-in-progress for construction activity. - Several aggregates are recorded on a cash basis including taxes and subsidies on products, and expenditure and revenue data reported by Government Financial Statistics (GFS). #### 2.4.3 Grossing/netting - Transactions between two establishments in the same enterprise are typically recorded on a gross basis given most data are collected at the establishment level. *International Monetary Fund — NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS, Oman (excerpt).* ### 3. Accuracy and reliability ### 3. Accuracy and reliability ### 3.1 Source data - Source data are obtained from a variety of data sources including annual enterprise surveys, administrative datasets, irregular household budget surveys, and existing sectoral macroeconomic accounts. The source data are broadly suitable for compilation. - Annual Establishment Survey (NCSI) - Frame drawn from a decennial census of establishments last undertaken in 2010. A quarterly update of births and deaths is provided by the MOCI and each of Oman’s eleven governorates. - Frame variables include employment, revenue and industry code. Institutional sector is not maintained on the frame but set during survey estimation. - Units excluded from the survey frame: general government (defined by GFS), financial corporations (defined by data provided by the CBO), NPISH (defined by data from a variety of sources) and the manufacturing industry. - Full enumeration of enterprises exceeding industry-specific thresholds; examples of thresholds: - Building and Construction (ISIC Section F): establishments with 50 or more employees; - Wholesale and Retail Trade (ISIC Section M): establishments with 21 or more employees; - Education (ISIC Section N): Annual revenue greater than 70,000 Omani Rials (US$ 182,000); - Health (ISIC Section G): Annual revenue greater than or equal to 40,000 Omani Rials (US$ 104,000). - A subset of units failing to meet thresholds are randomly selected, enumerated and used to construct estimates of the population from which they were selected; sample survey estimates are added to fully enumerated population estimates for national accounts. - Survey form asks whether responses are clerical estimates or from a chart of accounts. Units with clerical estimates or employment under a defined threshold are considered unincorporated and assigned to the household sector; remaining units are assigned to the nonfinancial corporations sector. NCSI recognizes this method is likely to overstate the household sector and understate the non-financial corporations sector. - Results are edited when national accounts are compiled and considered reasonable since the response rate exceeds 90 percent. - Household Budget Survey (HBS) - First conducted in 1990. Repeated every year between 1999 and 2011. Next HBS planned for 2016. - Used to compile household final consumption expenditure, own account production for consumption, and informal activity in benchmark years. - Conducts twelve representative samples over a calendar year to address seasonality. Results considered reasonable since the response rate exceeds 90 percent. - Price Indexes and Quantity Changes - NCSI compiles Producer Price Index (PPIs) and Consumer Price Index (CPIs). Construction of a PPI is noted as an observable and material improvement since the 2004 ROSC. - PPI does not provide complete coverage; national accounts use CPI and quantity indicators from Ministry of Oil and Gas and Directorate General of Customs. - Other data sources used in national accounts - MOCI: annual census of units in the manufacturing industry used to construct industry estimates including output, intermediate consumption and compensation of employees; - MOF: estimates for the general government sector used to compile general government output and final consumption expenditure; - CBO: imports and exports of goods and services used to populate final expenditure and adjust household expenditure for residents/non-residents; CBO also provides financial corporations sector data used to estimate items including financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM) and insurance; - Ministry of Oil and Gas: detailed quantities and prices of oil production used to construct constant price estimates for the mining industry; - Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries: data compiled for “traditional fishing” representing household sector output. - Timeliness of source data - Preliminary estimates compiled by summing four quarterly estimates and disseminated four months after the end of the reference year. - Results of the annual establishment survey available for the provisional estimate published eleven months after the end of the reference year. - All required source data included in the final estimate published approximately twenty three months after the end of the reference year. ### 3.2 Assessment of source data - Validation rules capture data entry and consistency errors; enforced by validation checks and comparisons with other data items provided by the unit. - Staff assess results with administrative data sources such as published financial records. - The annual establishment survey is designed to approximate the definitions, scope, classification, valuation, and time of recording required for national accounts; survey forms vary by industry and are subject to review and testing for 2008 SNA implementation. ### 3.3 Statistical techniques - Imputations for nonresponse are based on characteristics of units with similar industry and/or employment characteristics and are consistent with international standards. - If the establishment responded in the previous period, the average growth rate of enterprises with similar characteristics is used. - If no response in the previous period, average output per employee based on the establishment’s employment is used. - Specific procedures and treatments - Output of owner-occupied dwellings derived as estimated rental values owners would pay for similar accommodation; data from HBS. - Output of FISIM calculated as interest received less interest paid by financial institutions; domestic usage calculated as total output less net exports and assigned to an imputed industry. Treatment consistent with 1993 SNA. - 2008 SNA recommendation to derive FISIM separately for loans and deposits using a reference rate and allocate to intermediate and final consumption will be considered in the future. The report notes: "All other things equal, Oman's GDP will be understated by the value of FISIM consumed as final use relative to other countries who have implemented this recommendation." - Employee stock options treated according to reporting in relevant source data; transactions considered immaterial in Oman. - Output of non-life insurance derived as premiums received less claims paid. This generates material volatility and potentially negative gross operating surplus and value added in years of large claims. 2008 SNA recommended treatment for insurance service charge derived from premiums, claims and premium supplements has not been implemented. - Goods sent/received abroad for processing without change of economic ownership are recorded as exports/imports consistent with 1993 SNA; not updated to 2008 SNA standard. - Work-in-progress estimated for large construction projects, generally not reflected in other industries. - No adjustment to output and intermediate consumption to remove holding gains/losses. Change in inventories derived as a residual. - Consumption of fixed capital set equal to depreciation as reported; Oman has not implemented a perpetual inventory model as recommended by 2008 SNA. - Most source data compiled on an accrual basis; exception: GFS data compiled by MOF on a cash basis. - Deflation and volume measurement - Double indicator method used to deflate output and intermediate consumption for approximately 100 industry and product groups in the SUT. - PPIs used where possible to deflate output and intermediate consumption; material improvement since 2004 ROSC. - Where PPIs unavailable, deflation undertaken using IPDs constructed from observed volume movements (typically oil products and output of general government). Last resort is economy-wide CPI. - Taxes less subsidies on products deflated using a weighted average of unit values derived from Directorate General of Customs data. This approximates 2008 SNA methodology; recent increases in (mostly oil) subsidies require attention because current method deflates subsidies on products with aggregate price change of imported products. - GDP volumes calculated in respect of 2010 constant prices. The base year was updated from 2000 in 2012. - Household final consumption for many products estimated by applying corresponding current price movement in total resources at purchasers prices since the last HBS. Gross fixed capital formation derived independently. Changes in inventories derived as a residual. - Household and government final consumption expenditure compiled for approximately 100 product groups of the SUT. - Gross fixed capital formation compiled by activity and by type of asset. No activity or type detail available for change in inventories. - Reliance on fixed ratios limited to several activities in agriculture; minimal significance. - Government final consumption expenditure excludes sales of market output as required by 2008 SNA. - Quarterly compilation methods - Quarterly estimates for output, intermediate consumption, and taxes on production compiled using: - survey data: quarterly enumeration of large units in the annual enterprise survey; population estimates constructed by assuming enumerated units represent same proportion of the population as in the most recent annual enterprise survey (used for construction and hotels & restaurants); - administrative reporting: examples include MOCI (mining) and government finance (public administration and defense); - models: owner-occupied dwellings extrapolated from 2010 HBS by population movements and CPI for rents. - Quarterly time series for the latest year are scaled to obtain consistency with latest annual benchmark. Example: quarterly series for 2013 scaled with a constant ratio to match the provisional benchmark for 2013 published in November 2014. No adjustment made when the final annual benchmark is released in November 2015. This practice ensures the quarterly dataset is not a consistent time series. - Current benchmarking process enables production of current quarterly output (calendar year to date current price GDP for the current and previous calendar year only). No quarterly time series is published. NCSI acknowledges the current benchmarking process is suboptimal and prohibits construction of a quarterly constant price GDP. - Recommendations - Ensure volume movements for taxes less subsidies on products reflect volume movements of the underlying products. - Replace the current benchmarking technique with a standard technique such as the Proportional Denton Method to enable publication of consistent quarterly time series. Addressing this issue is a precondition of publishing quarterly time series in constant prices. ### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs - Intermediate results are validated against other information where applicable; survey results confronted with external data sources and validated for coherency with other SNA aggregates. - Statistical discrepancies in intermediate data are assessed and investigated on an ad hoc basis when warranted. - The SUT framework is used to identify and resolve discrepancies to achieve consistency of outputs. ### 3.5 Revision studies - Formal revision studies are not conducted. NCSI assesses differences between preliminary and final estimates at a disaggregated level; major differences are noted and investigated. ### 4. Serviceability #### 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness - National accounts data are disseminated annually and adhere to the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) recommendations for periodicity. - Quarterly, current price estimates of value added and GDP are disseminated in the first week of the fourth quarter after the reference period in the monthly bulletin. - The first annual, current price estimate of GDP is disseminated within four months of the reference year and meets the GDDS requirement for annual GDP. - Revisions to annual, current price estimates of GDP and provisional estimates of volume change are disseminated eleven months after the reference period in the Statistical Yearbook. These values are finalized after twenty three months in the subsequent Statistical Yearbook. #### 4.2 Consistency - Estimates and growth rates in the published series are consistent as there is no statistical discrepancy due to implementation of SUTs for all reference periods. The published annual GDP time series commences in 1998. - Oman’s national accounts are a consistent annual time series commencing in 1998, although several 1993 SNA aggregates could be constructed from 1980. - Annual SUTs are constructed from 1998 as part of Oman’s transition to 1993 SNA. The balanced time series commencing in 1998 replaced the existing unbalanced time series commencing in 1980. NCSI has no plans to backcast GDP to 1980 due to lack of significant user demand. - Historical revisions are applied throughout the historical SUT time series to ensure consistency and are advised to users. The annual time series for 2012 (published in November 2013) incorporates revisions due to modified methodologies and updated product detail. *Source: _cr15159 - 3. Accuracy and reliability* ### 2010. An explanation for these revisions is provided in the National Accounts Bulletin. ### _cr15159 - 2010. An explanation for these revisions is provided in the National Accounts Bulletin. ### National accounts publications and content - Published data include tables and graphical presentations to highlight key points; the publication also contains material outlining the definition of key aggregates such as GDP, government final consumption expenditure and gross capital formation. - Time series of SUTs commence in 1998; all periods prior to this date have a statistical discrepancy. - The National Accounts Bulletin provides limited analysis of economic trends. - The monthly bulletin contains pie charts with three (rather than two) dimensions; ovals (rather than circles); and inconsistent radii — these factors can mislead if users interpret shares in proportion to area rather than radians. - Recommendation: - Consider including analytical text of economic trends in future national accounts publications and based on good practices in other countries. ### Consistency with other statistical frameworks and data sources - Oman’s national accounts are consistent with balance of payments published by the CBO; key aggregates such as net exports of goods and services are identical, although minor issues (e.g., need to include re-exports in both imports and exports, signage on net lending) were identified and will be corrected. - The NCSI compiles IMTS-based exports and imports in consultation with Directorate General of Customs. The CBO incorporates other sources including international trade in services and includes adjustments for personal effects of travelers and timing adjustments for large capital items to construct a BPM5/1993 SNA compliant series. - The NCSI ensures the time series provided by CBO are reflected in the national accounts. - No adjustments are made to the GFSM 1986 series for general government provided by MOF. - The statistical impact of including GFS aggregates constructed on a cash basis into national accounts constructed on an accrual basis is considered to be immaterial, and is ignored to achieve consistency of published aggregates. - Recommendation: - Undertake detailed analysis to assess materiality of the difference between a cash and accruals GFS series to validate the current assumption. ### Revision policy and practice (schedules, identification, studies) - Revision schedule: - First, preliminary annual estimate is derived by summing the four quarterly values and published four months after the reference period. - A revised, provisional estimate, derived from a SUT with partial information, is published eleven months after the reference period. - A final estimate, derived from a SUT with complete information, is published twenty three months after the reference period. - Final estimates are only revised in the event of methodological changes and/or rebasing. - No formal documentation of the revision schedule is available as key users are well aware of the schedule. - Identification and transparency: - The National Accounts Bulletin and Statistical Yearbook identify the provisional estimates. No annotations are available to identify revised/updated data. - Revision studies: - Analyses of revisions were conducted while national accounts were compiled by the MONE. No analyses of revisions have been made available to the public since NCSI commenced operations in 2012. - Responsibility for revision studies currently lies with the NCSI Information Directorate and has not been undertaken since 2012. - Recommendations: - Publish documentation outlining the regular and transparent schedule for which national accounts are revised. - Undertake annual revision studies for national accounts and make the results available publicly. ### Accessibility of data and dissemination practices - Presentation and clarity: - National accounts data are presented clearly and use expected classifications including industry, sector and product. - Publication includes a short description of data sources and methodology. - Publications are presented in both Arabic and English; the English contains multiple typographical errors in labels. - The published quarterly, current price GDP series is not subjected to any seasonal adjustment; changes from the corresponding period of the previous year are presented instead. - Dissemination media and format: - Data are presented in hardcopy publications, CD-ROM, and on the NCSI website. - NCSI is investigating methods to improve access to electronic versions of the time series. - User requests for additional detail and/or alternative classifications using existing concordances are provided free of charge subject to quality and confidentiality assessments. - Release schedule and preannounced calendar: - Statistics are not released according to a preannounced schedule; general timing has remained stable over time and regular users are generally aware of upcoming data releases. - Selected government stakeholders including the CBO are provided with preliminary versions of published statistics on an ad hoc basis via informal relationships; users are instructed to restrict further dissemination and expect revisions between preliminary and final versions. No public information documents this practice. - Recommendations: - Publish an advance data release calendar which refers to all upcoming releases. - Construct and publish a policy documenting the users receiving statistics prior to release, the principles under which this disclosure occurs, and the process by which access can be requested. ### Metadata, documentation, and user assistance - Metadata and sources: - Summary information on data sources and methodology is published in the National Accounts Bulletin. - No comprehensive document outlining the relationship between 1993 SNA and the national accounting framework employed by Oman is available. - GDDS metadata is populated but has not been updated since September 2011 and does not reflect current NCSI processes. - Recommendations: - Develop a comprehensive sources and methods document which is updated and published annually following release of the Statistical Yearbook. - Update GDDS metadata annually following release of the updated sources and methods document. - Assistance to users: - Publications identify NCSI as the agency responsible and provide access points including website, Facebook and Twitter with a phone number and/or web form to reach staff in the NCSI Information Directorate. - NCSI may consider including a phone number and email address within publications so clients do not have to obtain this information from an intermediate website. - All publications can be freely accessed from the NCSI website; national accounts staff do not impose charges for servicing requests coming through the Information Directorate. ### Data Quality Assessment Framework (summary findings and planned improvements) - Prerequisites of quality: - The historical Statistical Law powers and responsibilities have not been applied to the NCSI; data sharing and coordination are based on informal relations. - Resources and financing to compile the ISWGNA minimum requirement are not available; a submission for additional government funding is under development. - Informal consultation with public sector users; little consultation with private sector. Plan to establish a formal user advisory group for macroeconomic statistics. - No work plans and no internal training programs. - Assurances of integrity: - No public information available to advise some government users receive statistics prior to release. Plan to publish terms and conditions under which statistical series are disclosed to internal government users prior to publication. - Methodological soundness: - 1993 SNA is used instead of 2008 SNA. - ISIC Rev. 3.1 used instead of Rev. 4; CPC Ver 1 used instead of Ver. 2. - GFS data are provided and recorded on a cash accounting basis; plan to record GFS estimates on an accrual basis when Ministry of Finance implements latest international standard for GFS. - Accuracy and reliability: - Suite of PPIs are not exhaustive; plan to increase scope of PPIs. - Procedure for benchmarking quarterly and annual accounts does not support a quarterly time series; plan to replace current benchmarking technique with international standard technique. - No revision studies are undertaken; plan to undertake revision studies to inform statistical processes. - Serviceability: - Volume GDP is published eleven months after reference period concludes; the GDDS requirement is within nine months. Plan to reduce time between publication of volume GDP and conclusion of reference year. - Government finance statistics cannot be reconciled with national accounts; plan to address. - No revisions studies are published; plan to publish periodic revisions analyses. - Accessibility: - No preannounced publication schedule is available; several government agencies receive statistics prior to release. Plan to publish and maintain a preannounced schedule of upcoming release dates on the NCSI website. - A detailed description of concepts and sources does not exist; plan to construct and publish a comprehensive sources and methods document and update GDDS metadata immediately following release of annual estimates in the Statistical Yearbook. ### Price statistics (Consumer Price Index) — prerequisites and legal framework - Institutional and legal: - Royal Decree No. 31/2012 establishes the NCSI as an autonomous NSO. Articles 3 and 6 establish the organization’s board of directors and statute respectively. - Royal Decree No. 40/2014, issued on August, 12, 2014, defines one of the NCSI’s duties as “technical supervision of the management and organization of statistics and information activities in Oman”. - The historical Statistical Law is provided through Royal Decree No. 29/2001 and vests responsibilities with the MONE (dissolved in 2011). Amendments are being drafted to vest responsibilities with the NCSI; Oman currently has no valid Statistical Law applying to the NCSI. - The SAC is established by article 9 of the historical Statistical Law; its current legal status needs definition after MONE’s dissolution to be effective. - Data sharing and confidentiality: - Historical Statistical Law prohibits publication of data concerning an individual by MONE — only aggregate form — but the Statistical Law does not apply to NCSI. - CPI production system and handheld computers for price collection are password protected; only CPI staff have access. - Historical Statistical Law requires staff to maintain confidentiality and imposes up to six months imprisonment and/or a fine of 500 Omani Rials (US$1,300) for breaching this obligation; these provisions should be included in the updated legislation. - Reporting and compliance: - Article 6 of the historical Statistical Law requires government units, private entities and individuals to provide data to units undertaking statistical activity approved by the SAC. Consequence of non-compliance is a fine of 300 Omani rials (US$780). - The Statistical Law does not apply to the NCSI; updated legislation should include these provisions. - Since inception of the NCSI in 2013, there are no identified units that have refused to provide data; NCSI’s program to educate and encourage cooperation is noted. - Recommendations: - Develop Statistical Law to clarify responsibilities and to strengthen coordination mechanisms within the Omani statistical system. - Establish formalized data exchange arrangements and a SAC with clarified legal status. *Source: _cr15159 - 2010. An explanation for these revisions is provided in the National Accounts Bulletin.* ### 0.2 Resources ### 0.2 Resources ### 0.2.1 Staff, facilities, computing resources, and financing - There are 28 staff members working on the CPI, 20 of whom are price collectors. - Staff have the qualifications required and are encouraged to develop and diversify skills; staff are described as extremely flexible and able to change roles. - Number of staff is sufficient for current production. - Salaries paid by the NCSI are set by the Ministry of Civil Service; bonuses are used to reward good work. - Staff turnover is low following recent harmonization of civil salary pay scales. - Price collection uses handheld computers; the CPI production system is comprehensive and up to date. - Offices, furniture, and equipment are modern, well maintained, and in good working condition. - Financial resources for the current CPI program are adequate. ### 0.2.2 Measures to ensure efficient use of resources - NCSI is developing a framework to assign Key Performance Indicators to individual staff and improve quality of periodic reviews. - Staff are currently assessed by their supervisor and receive a discretionary bonus commensurate with the assessment. - Majority of NCSI funding is provided by the government and is subject to review by the board of directors and the MOF. - Other funding comes from selling the publications. ### Recommendation - Establish a formal user advisory group for macroeconomic statistics to assess relevance of current data and identify new and emerging data requirements on a regular basis. --- ### 0.3 Relevance ### 0.3.1 Monitoring relevance and practical utility - NCSI staff undertake regular consultation with data users in other government agencies via informal long-standing relationships. - Formalized consultation: bi-annual gathering of up to forty government data users. - Consultation with users outside government is limited to brochures when the user is a survey respondent and other informal contacts. - A user survey was conducted in 2009 and 2010 and considered a one off response to the global financial crisis. - A formalized user advisory committee does not exist. - NCSI staff actively participate in regional statistical coordination via GCC-Stat; senior staff attend selected international meetings. - NCSI may delegate representation in international forums to regional delegates from GCC-Stat. --- ### 0.4 Other quality management ### 0.4.1 Processes to focus on quality - New CPI staff receive one-on-one coaching from experienced senior staff to reinforce statistical quality. - Experienced staff demonstrate a shared commitment to quality. - No formal training regime, process, or public information exists to reinforce quality and demonstrate trade-offs. ### 0.4.2 Monitoring quality during planning and implementation - CPI staff show strong understanding and commitment to coherence of published aggregates. - NCSI has sophisticated computer systems to monitor all aspects of surveys. - Heavy use of external experts in recent years to improve quality of processes. - Mission recommends development and implementation of formalized strategies to reinforce quality within NCSI, for example: - A training course using historical case studies to demonstrate impact upon decision making and importance of quality and monitoring processes. - The course to be undertaken by all staff upon commencement and after completing a five year period of service. --- ### 1. Assurances of integrity ### 1.1 Institutional Integrity #### 1.1.1 Professional independence and appointments - Royal Decree No. 31/2012 establishes the NCSI as an autonomous statistical agency. - Historical Statistical Law and this legislation do not explicitly prohibit interference from other agencies in compilation and/or dissemination of statistical information. - Staff are appointed through existing merit based civil service processes in consultation with NCSI management: - Vacancies reported via a job description to the Ministry of Civil Service, who liaise with the Ministry of Manpower to identify applicants. - Applicants complete a written test specified by the NCSI and receive a preliminary ranking. - Top five applicants are interviewed and receive a final ranking from two NCSI staff and one delegate from the Ministry of Civil Service. - Staff participate in regional and international workshops and training by GCC-Stat and the Fund. - NCSI head (Executive Director) is appointed by the Sultan of Oman via a Royal Decree; details of tenure and reporting arrangements are not explicitly stated in legislation. - Mission recommends the new Statistical Law should include provisions specifying the choice, tenure and reporting arrangements of the NCSI Executive Director to reflect international best practice. #### 1.1.2 Choice of sources, techniques, and dissemination - Choice of data sources, statistical techniques, and dissemination are informed solely by statistical considerations. - NCSI staff determine techniques, methodologies, and data sources in light of international best practice. - Data are disseminated according to availability without influence of non-statistical considerations. #### 1.1.3 Right to comment on misuse - NCSI is entitled to and will contact relevant media when data are misinterpreted or misused. - Information Directorate monitors all media channels for references to its statistics. ### 1.2 Transparency #### 1.2.1 Terms and conditions availability - Historical Statistical Law is available in hardcopy in Arabic and English upon request; this legislation does not apply to the NCSI. - Updated legislation should be made widely available in both English and Arabic. #### 1.2.2 Internal governmental access prior to release - Internal governmental access to CPI statistics prior to release does not currently exist; no decree stipulates this. #### 1.2.3 Product identification - All publications clearly identify the NCSI as the source; branding is being updated to be modern and uniform. #### 1.2.4 Advance notice of major changes - Advance notice of significant changes is given to users through television and radio interviews and the NCSI website. - There is a 30 minute radio program every Sunday where NCSI staff can inform the audience about recent developments in different statistics. ### 1.3 Ethical standards #### 1.3.1 Staff behavior guidelines - Staff behavior is guided by Oman’s Civil Service Law; Royal Decrees No. 101/1996 and 39/1982 establish conduct terms and sanctions for participation in political events (penalties include salary deductions and/or dismissal). - Article 10 of the historical Statistical Law sets a maximum penalty of 500 Omani rials (US$1,300) and/or six months imprisonment for staff who knowingly collect or publish incorrect data; the Statistical Law does not apply to the NCSI. - Updated legislation should include similar penalties for falsifying data. - Staff are advised of these arrangements during on-the-job training but are not required to formally acknowledge their legal obligations. - Mission recommends development of documentation outlining legal obligations and requiring staff (new and existing) to sign a corresponding undertaking. --- ### 2. Methodological soundness ### 2.1 Concepts and definitions - NCSI strives to reflect concepts and definitions in the 2004 ILO CPI Manual and the 1993 SNA. - CPI uses COICOP to classify products. - Weights are derived from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES). - Elementary indexes use the Jevons formula; aggregate indexes use the Laspeyres formula. ### 2.2 Scope - CPI weights include most resident households, including foreigners; institutional households (hospitals, army barracks) are not covered. - Consumption of households that are also producers is included, as is consumption of own production. - International best practice: for a CPI used for monetary policy and as a general measure of inflation, production for own consumption should be excluded from weights; if included, index should be calculated with and without it. - CPI covers COICOP groups 01 to 12, with exception of alcohol. - CPI does not include fixed capital formation (residential property); imputed rents of owner-occupied dwellings are included. - Mission recommends NCSI exclude production for own consumption from CPI weights. ### 2.3 Classification/sectorization - CPI classified using COICOP up to 4-digit level; under 4-digit the basket is classified at 5-digit or 6-digit level depending on product. ### 2.4 Basis for recording #### 2.4.1 Valuation - CPI weights constructed using market prices; collected prices relate to actual transaction prices after discounts. #### 2.4.2 Recording practice - Price collectors report price as of day of collection; period for price collection within month is predetermined. - Fresh products (fruit): collected on Sunday four times per month. - Other products: mainly collected on the second week of the month. - Flight prices: collected price is price for an open air ticket for four months out. - Some centrally collected prices (water and electricity) are allocated to month when introduced; changes identified from media. #### 2.4.3 Grossing/netting - Secondhand goods are not included in price collection. - Sales of secondhand cars are included in total weight of cars and cannot be separated; weight of new cars includes weight of secondhand cars. - Weight of secondhand cars is not a net weight, which is against international best practice. - Mission recommends NCSI set weight of secondhand cars to be a net weight (reflecting value received for sale less amount paid for purchase of new second-hand car). --- ### 3. Accuracy and reliability ### 3.1 Source data #### 3.1.1 Coverage and collection programs - Current weights are an average of three years from the 2008/2009/2010 HIES. - Three year average chosen to overcome HIES shortages such as missing data and year-to-year variability. - Outlets for price collection were comprehensively reviewed; outlets selected based on local knowledge, not a statistical sample frame. - Recommendation: enumerators should begin listing all establishments in an area to form an initial sample frame; future selection should use sales data of establishments. - Collectors and supervisors keep selected outlets under continuous review and change lists as necessary. - Products selected from 2008/2009/2010 HIES: all products with consumption higher than 0.2 percentages within each 4-digit COICOP group were selected; excluded product weights redistributed according to consumption share of selected products. - Price collection includes all areas of Oman except Musandam and Al Wusta due to unavailability of weight data. - Musandam population: about 1.1 percent of total population. - Al Wusta population: about 1.4 percent of total population. - Exclusion of these governorates is not considered a major drawback. #### 3.1.2 Approximation to definitions and scope - All price data are specifically collected for the CPI and fully match CPI concepts and requirements. - HIES compiled from a sample of households: sample includes 5000 households for a one-year period (from May to April); sample covers all areas of the country. - HIES data reasonably estimate definitions and scope of weights for CPI. #### 3.1.3 Timeliness - All price quotations are received on time for index calculation. - New HIES data are published approximately every five years. - Currently new HIES data are expected to be available in 2016, which would be on time for the next weight update. ### 3.2 Assessment of source data #### 3.2.1 Routine assessments and validation - When updating weights, HIES data are reviewed by CPI staff in close cooperation with national accounts staff. - Sampling errors are evaluated by HIES compilers. - Monthly price quotes entered into handheld computers and automatically sent to central office. - Handheld checks price against previous month and highlights odd changes; collector must identify reason from a standard list. - At central office, CPI staff check all price quotations and odd changes; questionable prices lead to contact with collector and, if needed, the outlet. - Validation process is highly automated and effective to minimize errors. ### 3.3 Statistical techniques #### 3.3.1 Imputation and handling missing prices - Prices for temporarily missing items are imputed using the group price change. - For certain fresh products volatile within a month, method of week-on-same-week in preceding month is used: e.g., first week prices of current month compared to first week prices of previous month; average change used to estimate missing item price. - Permanently missing items are replaced; first month change for replacement estimated using group price change, with an overlap price collected for use next month. - Replacement items selected by price collectors with assistance of outlet personnel; selection based on representativity measured by sales. - New products introduced only when weights are updated. - Mission recommends updating weights and product sample regularly at least every five years to reflect market changes. #### 3.3.2 Other procedures and aggregation - Weights constructed using three year average HIES data, price updated to price reference period. - Elementary aggregates calculated by product and region as ratio of geometric average prices (Jevons formula). - Aggregation uses Modified Laspeyres formula applied as a two-stage formula: current month compared to previous month and index chained according to monthly change. - Higher level indexes calculated separately for different governorates and aggregated using relative expenditure shares to form national CPI. - New base year indexes were linked to old base year indexes to form a continuous time series from 2002. *Source: _cr15159 - 0.2 Resources* ### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs ### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs ### Validation practices and checks - Intermediate results are validated against other information where applicable. - The CPI is occasionally checked against the relevant import prices as well as the relevant components of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Wholesale Price Index (WPI). - Staff routinely check different components of the CPI against each other to identify any unusual movements, which are then further investigated (for example, price changes and indexes for the different governorates are compared and evaluated). - Aggregation of different governorates to form a national index is carried out in a manner that does not produce inconsistent aggregate results regardless of the order of aggregation. - Assessment and investigation of statistical discrepancies in intermediate data are routine practice. ### Revision studies (3.5) - Studies and analyses of revisions and/or updates are carried out and used internally to inform statistical processes (see also 4.3.3.). - When a new set of weights is introduced, it is compared with the old set and the changes are evaluated. This is routine practice, but this analyzis is not published. - The prices of the CPI are not normally revised. ### Serviceability — Periodicity and timeliness (4.1) - Two CPIs: a national CPI covering all major cities, and a CPI for the Muscat area. - Both CPIs are monthly indexes, consistent with GDDS recommendations and international best practices. - The CPI is published in the Monthly Bulletin within one month after the reference period. - The Monthly Bulletin is always published at the end of the month, but there is no formal predefined schedule for the publication. - Recommendation: - Develop and disseminate an advanced calendar of CPI release dates to reflect international best practices. ### Serviceability — Consistency (4.2) - The index for Muscat area and the national index are produced totally consistently. - When comparing the 2012=100 national index to the previous one 2000=100, there is some discrepancy in inflation rates for year 2013. - For the 2012=100 CPI, indexes for 2012 were incorrectly set to 100 for all months, instead of setting the annual average of 2012 to 100. This is partly the reason for differing inflation rates compared to the 2000=100 index. - Authorities were informed during the mission and immediately started all necessary recalculations. - Recommendation: - Rebase the index correctly. - Add a footnote to each of the months for 2013, explaining that part of the annual change is due to price differences, while part of the change is due to differences in weights, coverage and item/outlet samples. - When the new base year for the current index was introduced, the new indexes were linked to the corresponding old base year indexes to form a continuous time series from 2002. - The CPI weights are consistent with household final consumption as would be recorded in the National Accounts. ### Serviceability — Revision policy and practice (4.3) - Revisions to the index take place in the event of an error in the index; this is very rare due to validation processes. - According to international best practices, CPI weights should be updated on a regular basis, at least every five years at a minimum. - Currently updates to the Omani CPI do not follow any regular and transparent schedule, and are not necessarily done at least every five years. - The HIES is not conducted on a routine and regular schedule every five years. Although the HIES is the ideal source of data for CPI weights, other sources can be considered where HIES data are absent. - Partial weight updates can be done using national accounts estimates of household final consumption expenditure: upper level weights updated using national accounts, lower level weights based on HIES remain fixed. - Recommendation: - NCSI should introduce and make public a regular schedule for future index updates, every five years at minimum, considering availability of new data from the HIES or alternative sources. - Preliminary and/or revised/updated data are clearly identified in publications with a footnote explaining the reason. - Studies and analyses of revisions and/or updates are not currently made public (see also 3.5.1). The weights and samples were updated for the 2012=100 index, but no studies have been published regarding this update. - Recommendation: NCSI should publish studies of revisions and updates on its website. ### Accessibility — Data accessibility (5.1) - CPI is published in several publications: Monthly Bulletin, a quarterly publication specifically for the CPI, quarterly Economic Review, and an annual publication; published in Arabic and/or English. - CPI data are also available in the Statistical Yearbook. - The Monthly Bulletin includes figures for the last three months, shows actual index values, changes over relevant periods, and the weights. - Quarterly Economic Review and the annual publication contain longer time series and more detailed interpretation, including contributions of different main groups to overall inflation. - Monthly-level contribution data for different main groups/lower level groups would be useful for more detailed interpretation of current period developments. - The NCSI recently introduced an iPhone application presenting selected key figures. - For the 2012=100 index, the Monthly Bulletin does not disseminate data at the same level of detail as the old 2000=100 index: - Old index: detailed indexes published for housing, water, electricity, and gas and other fuels. - Current index: only the group level index for housing is published. - This limits data accessibility and is contrary to international best practices. - Recommendations: - Provide detailed explanations and analysis of the contributions to change on a monthly basis in CPI publications. - Disseminate data at more detailed level in the Monthly Bulletin, at minimum those groups included in the old index publication; ideally disseminate at COICOP 4-digit level. - Dissemination media and format: - Current formats are clear and adequate for short time period comparisons. - Longer time series for monthly figures require collecting Monthly Bulletins for different months; Monthly Bulletins for previous months are slightly difficult to obtain on current website. - Data are only available in pdf-format, which is not convenient for combining longer time series. - NCSI website is being updated; new website expected to allow more flexibility. - Recommendation: Disseminate detailed time series data on the NCSI website; ideally provide an electronic database with detailed monthly time series data. - No formal preannounced schedule for publication though Monthly Bulletin is always released at end of month. - Recommendation: NCSI should provide an advance release calendar for new CPI data. - CPI statistics are made available to all users at the same time; neither press nor governmental agencies receive a preview. - More detailed data and additional breakdowns of the CPI can be provided free of charge on request. ### Accessibility — Metadata accessibility (5.2) - A comprehensive methodological guide is available in Arabic and English, published in the annual CPI publication and on the NCSI website. - The guide includes necessary information on data sources and statistical techniques used to calculate the CPI and is being updated to reflect recent methodological changes with the new CPI. - A short description of data used to calculate the CPI is included in the Monthly Bulletin. - Metadata can also be found on the IMF’s GDDS metadata site, but these data are outdated. - Recommendation: Keep the GDDS metadata on the website up-to-date. - Levels of detail in documentation are adapted to different users: short summary in monthly publication; more detailed methodological explanations in the annual publication. ### Accessibility — Assistance to users (5.3) - Publications contain a general contact point for the NCSI; contacts rely partly on informal relations. - Recommendation: Provide specific contact points in all publications to offer effective assistance to users. - NCSI provides a full list of its publications and maintains a library open to the public. ### Key issues and assessments (from Data Quality Assessment Framework summary) - Prerequisites of quality: - The Statistical Law applied to the MONE has not been transferred to the NCSI. - Relevance: - Views of nongovernment users are not actively sought; views of government users based on informal relations. - Transparency: - No material is available to the public beyond references to other legislation on the NCSI website. - Scope and recording: - Production of own consumption should be excluded from the weights of the headline CPI. - Weight of secondhand cars is not a net weight. - Source data: - Outlet sample is not based on a sample frame. - Assessment and validation: - Practice observed for assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs. - Consistency: - Rebasing to 2012=100 was not done correctly. - Revision policy: - Index weights are not updated on a routine and regular basis. - Data accessibility: - No explanations of current-period developments in the monthly publication. - Time series not readily available. - No preannounced schedule for data dissemination. - Metadata accessibility: - Methodological guide is published on the website. - GDDS metadata are not up to date. ### Legal and institutional notes (PPI section excerpt) - Royal Decree No. 31/2012 establishes the NCSI as an autonomous NSO; Articles 3 and 6 establish the organization’s board of directors and statute. - Royal Decree No. 40/2014, issued on August, 12, 2014, defines one of the NCSI’s duties as “technical supervision of the management and organization of statistics and information activities in Oman”. - The historical Statistical Law is Royal Decree No. 29/2001; it vests responsibilities with the MONE, which was dissolved in 2011. Amendments are being drafted to vest responsibilities with the NCSI; Oman currently has no valid Statistical Law applying to the NCSI. - The SAC is established by article 9 of the historical Statistical Law; SAC’s legal status needs to be established in updated legislation. - Data sharing and coordination: - Exchange of unpublished data for individuals from government units to the NCSI is effective and was previously legislated (Article 4, Royal Decree No. 29/2001). - Current arrangements facilitating data exchange are the result of informal relationships; recommendation to establish formalized arrangements to document existing data exchange. - Confidentiality and sanctions: - Historical Statistical Law prohibits publication of individual data except in aggregate form and restricts use to statistical purposes; it requires staff to maintain confidentiality and imposes up to six months imprisonment and/or a fine of 500 Omani Rials ($US 1,300) for breaching this obligation. - Article 6 of the historical Statistical Law requires government units, private entities and individuals to provide data to approved statistical units; consequence of non-compliance is a fine of 300 Omani rials (US$ 780). *Source: _cr15159 - 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs (IMF)* ### 0.2 Resources ### _cr15159 - 0.2 Resources ### 0.2 Resources — staffing, facilities, systems, and financing - There are currently 3 staff members working on the PPI. - Staff qualifications: staff have the qualifications required to undertake the work and are encouraged to develop and diversify their skills; staff are flexible and can change roles to meet changing demands. - Staffing sufficiency and pressures: - Number of staff is sufficient for current production. - Pressure for improvements (expanding coverage and producing indexes monthly) would require additional staff. - Remuneration and turnover: - Salaries are set by the Ministry of Civil Service; bonuses are used to reward good work. - Staff turnover is low following recent harmonization of civil salary pay scales. - Price collection and production system: - Price collection is done efficiently using electronic questionnaires. - A production system exists but is not up-to-date; index calculation relies heavily on Excel-files, considered vulnerable. - Production system needs updating to reduce vulnerability and improve efficiency. - Facilities and equipment: - Offices have necessary facilities, are well maintained; furniture and equipment are modern and in good working condition. - Financing: - Financial resources for current PPI program are adequate. - Improvements would require additional financial resources. - The majority of NCSI funding is provided by the government and is subject to review by the board of directors and the MOF. - Other funding comes from selling the publications. ### 0.2.2 Measures to ensure efficient use of resources - NCSI is developing a framework to assign Key Performance Indicators to individual staff and improve periodic reviews. - Current staff assessment: staff are assessed by their supervisor and receive a discretionary bonus commensurate with the assessment. ### 0.3 Relevance — monitoring and user consultation - User consultation practices: - Regular consultation with data users in other government agencies via informal long-standing relationships. - Formalized consultation: bi-annual gathering of up to forty users. - Consultation with users outside government limited to brochures for selected survey respondents and other informal contacts. - A user survey was conducted in 2009 and 2010 as a one-off response to the global financial crisis. - A formal user advisory committee does not exist. - Recommendation: - Establish a formal user advisory group for macroeconomic statistics to regularly assess relevance and identify new/emerging data requirements. Membership should include users from both government and the private sector. - International/regional participation: - NCSI staff participate in regional statistical coordination by GCC-Stat; senior staff attend selected international meetings; NCSI may delegate representation to regional delegates from GCC-Stat. ### 0.4 Other quality management - 0.4.1 Processes to focus on quality: - New PPI staff receive dedicated one-on-one coaching from experienced senior staff. - No formal training regime, process, or public information exists to reinforce quality and demonstrate trade-offs. - 0.4.2 Processes to monitor quality during planning and implementation: - PPI staff demonstrate a strong understanding and commitment to coherence of published aggregates. - NCSI has sophisticated computer systems to monitor surveys. - Heavy use of external experts in recent years to improve quality of processes. - Recommendation: - Develop and implement strategies to reinforce quality within NCSI, such as a training course using historical case studies to demonstrate impact on decision making; course to be undertaken by all staff upon commencement and after completing a five year period of service. ### 1. Assurances of integrity — institutional integrity, transparency, ethical standards - 1.1 Institutional Integrity - Royal Decree No. 31/2012 establishes the NCSI as an autonomous statistical agency supporting professional independence. - Historical Statistical Law and this legislation do not explicitly prohibit interference from other agencies in compilation/dissemination. - Staff appointment process: - Appointed through merit-based civil service processes in consultation with NCSI management. - Vacancies reported via job description to Ministry of Civil Service, which liaises with Ministry of Manpower. - Applicants complete a written test specified by NCSI and receive preliminary ranking; top five interviewed by two NCSI staff and one delegate from Ministry of Civil Service. - Staff participation in external training: regional and international workshops and training by GCC-Stat and the Fund. - NCSI head (Executive Director) appointment: appointed by the Sultan of Oman via Royal Decree; tenure and reporting arrangements not explicitly stated in legislation. - Recommendation: - New Statistical Law should include provisions specifying choice, tenure and reporting arrangements of the NCSI Executive Director to reflect international best practice. - 1.1.2 Choice of sources/techniques and dissemination: - Choices are informed solely by statistical considerations; NCSI staff determine techniques, methodologies, and data sources in light of international best practice. - Data are disseminated according to availability without influence of non-statistical considerations. - 1.1.3 Right to comment on misuse: - NCSI is entitled to contact relevant media when data are misinterpreted or misused. - Information Directorate monitors all media channels to identify references to its statistics. - 1.2 Transparency - Historical Statistical Law available in hardcopy in Arabic and English upon request; the Statistical Law does not apply to the NCSI. - Recommendation: - Updated legislation versions should be made widely available in both English and Arabic. - Data collection forms (electronic and others) should indicate whether data are for statistical purposes and reference the Statistical Law when updated. - Internal governmental pre-release access: - Internal governmental access to PPI statistics prior to release does not currently exist; no decree stipulates this. - Identification of products: - All publications clearly identify NCSI as the source; branding is being updated to be modern and uniform. - Advance notice of major changes: - Advance notice of significant changes given via television and radio interviews and the NCSI website. - 1.3 Ethical standards - Staff behavior guided by rules and regulations of Omani civil service, including Royal Decrees No. 101/1996 and 39/1982, which establish conduct terms and sanctions for participation in political events (penalties include salary deductions and/or dismissal). - Article 10 of historical Statistical Law sets a maximum penalty of 500 Omani rials (US$ 1,300) and/or six months imprisonment for staff who knowingly falsify data; this law applies to the NCSI and similar provisions should be included in updated legislation for the NCSI. - Staff are advised of these arrangements during on-the-job training but are not required to formally acknowledge legal obligations. - Recommendation: - Develop documentation outlining legal obligations and require individual staff (new and existing) to sign an agreement acknowledging their understanding. ### 2. Methodological soundness - 2.1 Concepts and definitions - PPI strives to reflect IMF’s 2004 PPI Manual and the 2008 SNA but deficiencies exist. - Classification and weighting: - PPI uses the Central Product Classification (CPC) to classify products. - Responding establishments classified by ISIC. - Weights derived from the 2007 Industrial Survey and reflect total value of production. - Prices: - Prices defined as factory gate prices excluding taxes. - Prices collected for both domestic and export markets. - Index formulas: - Elementary indexes calculated using the Jevons formula. - Aggregate indexes calculated using the Laspeyres formula. - 2.2 Scope - Current PPI covers three core industrial activities: ISIC groups (C) Mining and quarrying, (D) Manufacturing and (E) Electricity and water; these cover about 95 percent of the total production. - All activities in these sectors are included. - Plans exist to include agriculture, fishing, and communication but resources are insufficient. - Prices collected separately for domestic and export markets. - Recommendation from 2013 technical assistance: - Augment sample of establishments that provide export prices using data from the customs authority to provide a stronger basis for a separate export price index and improve total PPI quality. - Mission recommendation: - Increase coverage of the PPI and augment sample of establishments providing export prices using customs authority data. - 2.3 Classification/sectorization - PPI uses CPC 2 classification for products; responding establishments are classified by Rev ISIC 3.1. - Authorities should update activity classification to ISICRev 4. - Best practice: compile PPI by product as well as by activity. - Current dissemination: - Oman PPI compiled using both CPC and ISIC; data by activity are disseminated annually only. - Quarterly data by activity are available upon request. - Plans to routinely disseminate quarterly data according to ISIC in the future. - 2.4 Basis for recording - 2.4.1 Market prices: prices used are factory-gate prices excluding taxes (in line with international best practices). - 2.4.2 Accrual basis/recording: - PPI produced quarterly; data providers asked to provide an average price of the three months of each quarter. - If average of three months is not available for index calculation, the average of the middle month of the quarter is taken. - Price quotes refer to actual prices; for some items (such as oil) collected prices can refer to contract prices. - Mission recommendation: - Missing prices should be imputed (international best practice). - 2.4.3 Grossing/netting procedures: broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards. ### 3. Accuracy and reliability - 3.1 Source data - Weights: - 2007 Industrial Survey used as source data to calculate weights; these reflect total value of production for domestic and export markets, compliant with the SNA. - Best practice: weights should be updated at least every five years; current weights are outdated. - Establishment sample: - Selection by cut-off sampling on basis of size determined by total value of production; data from the 2005 Industrial Survey were used when sample drawn. - Prices collected from 157 major industrial establishments. - Selected establishments cover about 75 percent of total value of production. - Most establishments concentrated in the Muscat governorate, but other areas included. - Current production system does not make it convenient to replace establishments; if an establishment discontinues production, prices are imputed. - Current sample is out of date and should be updated. - Product/item sample: - Prices collected for 223 products, including total of some 900 items. - Product and item selection done by visiting establishments; establishments provided lists of items and shares of total sales; NCSI selected most representative products/items. - Production system does not allow replacing items; permanently missing item prices are imputed or sometimes replaced using special Excel-files; item sample is presumably out of date and should be updated. - Recommendation: - Update the weights and establishment sample at least every five years based on new source data. - 3.1.2 Source data alignment: - Weight data reflect total value of production and are compliant with the SNA. - Price data collection: - Quarterly for all items included in the price survey, using electronic questionnaires with detailed item descriptions. - Clear written guidelines for data providers; all data providers visited once they enter the PPI price collection survey for the first time. - NCSI staff maintain close contact with data providers during quarterly surveys to ensure quality. - 3.1.3 Timeliness: - Quarterly price data are collected in a timely manner; generally all questionnaires submitted on time. - Non-response handling: establishment contacted via e-mail or phone; sometimes visited. Non-response usually due to temporary disruption or closure; when closure occurs, prices are imputed. - 3.2 Assessment of source data - Source data for weights and establishment sample are scrutinized in close co-operation with national accounts staff. - Cut-off sampling means no information on sampling errors. - Price quotations are carefully checked and compared to previous ones and to similar items within and across establishments; questionable changes are examined and data providers contacted for explanations. - Data providers required to give explanations of price changes on electronic questionnaire. - Response rate is generally 100 percent, with rare exceptions; PPI staff react to non-response by contacting respondents. - 3.3 Statistical techniques - 3.3.1 Imputation and sample replacement: - Quarterly price changes for temporarily and permanently missing items are imputed. - Temporarily missing items: imputed using average change of other similar items of the same establishment; if none, average change of similar items of other establishments used. - Production system does not allow replacing permanently missing items; hence permanently missing items are imputed using same techniques. - Occasionally replacements are made using Excel-files, which is inefficient and increases risk of errors. - When a replacement is selected, selection is made in cooperation with the establishment based on representativity measured by sales. - New products introduced only when weights are updated; as weight/sample updates do not follow a regular schedule, product sample becomes outdated and price changes of totally new products are not taken into account. - Imputing price changes of missing items aligns with international best practices, but permanently missing items should be replaced rather than imputed. - Recommendations: - Update product and item sample on a regular basis, at least every five years. - Create a production system that allows for replacement of establishments and items. - 3.3.2 Other procedures and aggregation: - Weights constructed using data from the Industrial Survey (2007), which refers to the price reference year; price updating was not needed. - Elementary aggregates calculated at lowest level of CPC as ratio of geometric average prices (Jevons formula); current prices compared to average base period prices. - Elementary aggregates aggregated to higher level indexes using the geometric Laspeyres formula (geometric weighted average). - Preferred methodological improvement: implement the Modified Laspeyres to allow easier replacement of missing items and establishments and introduction of new items. *Source: _cr15159 - 0.2 Resources (IMF PDF content provided)* ### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs ### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs ### Assessment and validation practices - 3.4.1 Intermediate results are validated against other information where applicable. - Components of the PPI are compared to the corresponding components of the CPI on a regular basis. - 3.4.2 Statistical discrepancies in intermediate data are assessed and investigated. - Staff routinely check intermediate results of the PPI to find any unusual movements, which are then further investigated. - 3.4.3 Statistical discrepancies and other potential indicators of problems in statistical outputs are investigated. - The PPI is compiled by product and by activity. Careful checks are made to ensure consistency between the two datasets. ### Key findings - The PPI is compiled both by product (CPC) and by activity (ISIC), and consistency checks are performed between the two. - Staff routinely review intermediate results to detect and investigate unusual movements or statistical discrepancies. --- ### 3.5 Revision studies ### Practices and status - 3.5.1 Studies and analyses of revisions and/or updates are carried out and used internally to inform statistical processes (see also 4.3.3.) - The PPI has not been revised or updated since its first introduction. - Table summary: “The PPI was first introduced using 2007=100, and has not yet been revised or updated since its first introduction.” ### Implication - No public studies on revisions or updates currently exist (see 4.3.3). --- ### 4 Serviceability ### 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness - 4.1.1 Periodicity follows dissemination standards. - Currently the PPI is produced on a quarterly basis. - This does not reflect GDDS dissemination recommendations or international best practices. The GDDS recommends the dissemination of a monthly PPI. - 4.1.2 Timeliness follows dissemination standards. - The PPI is disseminated three months after the end of the reference quarter, which does not reflect GDDS dissemination recommendations for the PPI. - The NCSI is encouraged to start producing the PPI on a monthly basis, and to disseminate the index within eight weeks of the reference month. - Ideally, the NCSI should strive to disseminate the PPI one month after the reference month. ### Key statistics and targets - Current periodicity: quarterly. - GDDS recommendation: monthly dissemination. - Current timeliness: three months after end of reference quarter. - Recommended timeliness: within eight weeks of the reference month; ideally one month after the reference month. ### Recommendations - Start producing the PPI on a monthly basis. - Disseminate the index within eight weeks of the reference month; strive for dissemination one month after the reference month. --- ### 4.2 Consistency - 4.2.1 Statistics are consistent within the dataset. - The PPI is currently compiled using the CPC and the ISIC. However, quarterly data are only disseminated using the CPC. Annual publication of the PPI also includes data compiled by the ISIC. - Statistics are consistent irrespective of the classification used for aggregation. - 4.2.2 Statistics are consistent or reconcilable over a reasonable period of time. - There is a consistent time series available from 2007, which is the current index reference period. - Before 2007 the PPI did not exist; thus, there are no data available to calculate a longer time series. - 4.2.3 Statistics are consistent or reconcilable with those obtained through other data sources and/or statistical frameworks. - The NCSI runs an enterprise survey which provides not only the basis for developing the weights, but also a key data source for constructing the National Accounts of Oman. - Enterprises are asked to report data on the total value of their production. Thus, weights for the PPI are consistent with the SNA. ### Key facts - Consistent time series available from 2007 (index reference period). - PPI compiled by CPC and ISIC; quarterly dissemination uses CPC only; annual publication includes ISIC. --- ### 4.3 Revision policy and practice - 4.3.1 Revisions and/or updates follow a regular and transparent schedule. - Revisions to the index take place in the event of an error in the index. This is very rare, as the validation process is built to catch any errors in individual data and intermediate results. - Updates to the weights do not follow a regular and transparent schedule. - According to international best practices, weights for the PPI should be updated at least every five years. - The current weights are derived from the Industrial Survey of 2007; thus, the current weights are outdated. - The mission recommends that the NCSI update the current weights for the PPI, and introduce and make public a regular schedule for future updates, every five years at minimum. - 4.3.2 Preliminary and/or revised/updated data are clearly identified. - In the case of a revision or update, revised values are clearly identified in the publication with a footnote explaining the reason. - 4.3.3 Studies and analyses of revisions and/or updates are made public (see also 3.5.1). - The PPI has not been updated since its first publication. There are currently no studies on revisions or updates. ### Recommendations - Update PPI weights (current weights from Industrial Survey of 2007). - Introduce and publicize a regular weight-update schedule, at least every five years. - Maintain clear identification and explanatory footnotes for any revisions. --- ### 5 Accessibility ### 5.1 Data accessibility - 5.1.1 Statistics are presented in a way that facilitates proper interpretation and meaningful comparisons (layout and clarity of text, tables, and charts). - International best practice: compile PPI by product as well as by activity. - Oman PPI is compiled using both the CPC and the ISIC; however, data by activity are disseminated annually only. - Mission recommends disseminating the PPI data by activity each quarter. - The PPI is published in the Monthly Bulletin and quarterly release of the Economic Review; PPI data can also be obtained from the Statistical Yearbook. All of these are published either in Arabic and/or in English. - The Monthly Bulletin shows the index for the latest three quarters, while the annual publication contains more detailed data, as well as a longer time series from the last three years (only annual figures). - The Economic Review provides a detailed interpretation of current period developments of the PPI in writing, including information on the main contributors to overall annual change. - Mission noted that detailed information on the contributors to quarterly change would also be useful and recommends providing detailed analysis of the contributions to overall quarterly change. - Recently the NCSI introduced an iPhone application that presents selected economic and social key figures. - 5.1.2 Dissemination media and format are adequate. - Dissemination media and format are clear and adequate for short time period comparisons. - Longer time series for quarterly figures can only be obtained by collecting the Monthly Bulletins for different months. - On the current NCSI website, publications for previous months are slightly difficult to obtain. - Data is only available in pdf-format, which is not convenient for users to combine longer time series data. Thus, longer time series of quarterly data is not considered to be readily available. - The NCSI website is currently being updated, and the new website is expected to allow for more flexibility in presenting and organizing data and publications. - Recommendation: Disseminate detailed time series data on the NCSI website. Preferably there should be an electronic database, which includes detailed quarterly time series data. - 5.1.3 Statistics are released on a preannounced schedule. - There is no formal preannounced schedule for publication. However, the NCSI’s Monthly Bulletin is always released right at the end of the month. - It is recommended that the NCSI provide users with advance release calendar for new PPI data. - 5.1.4 Statistics are made available to all users at the same time. - The PPI statistics are made available to all users at the same time. Neither the press nor any governmental agencies are given a preview of the PPI before its publication. - 5.1.5 Statistics not routinely disseminated are made available upon request. - The PPI is published quarterly only using the CPC classification, but it is also compiled using the ISIC classification. These data can be provided upon request free of charge. ### Accessibility shortcomings and recommendations - Quarterly dissemination does not include activity breakdowns (ISIC) — mission recommends quarterly dissemination by activity. - Longer quarterly time series are not readily available online; data only in pdf-format and older Monthly Bulletins are hard to access. - Recommendation: provide an electronic database on the NCSI website with detailed quarterly time series. - Recommendation: publish an advance release calendar for PPI data. --- ### 5.2 Metadata accessibility - 5.2.1 Documentation on concepts, scope, classifications, basis of recording, data sources, and statistical techniques is available, and differences from internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices are annotated. - A comprehensive methodological guide is available both in Arabic and in English; published in the annual PPI publication disseminated on the NCSI website. The guide includes necessary information on data sources and statistical techniques used to calculate the PPI. - The Monthly Bulletin contains a short description of the data used in calculating the PPI. - Metadata can also be found on the IMF’s GDDS metadata site; however, these data are outdated. - Mission recommends that the GDDS metadata on the website be kept up-to-date. - 5.2.2 Levels of detail are adapted to the needs of the intended audience. - A short summary is available in the monthly publication for general users. - More detailed methodological explanations are available in the annual publication for more sophisticated users. ### Recommendations - Keep GDDS metadata on the website up-to-date. --- ### 5.3 Assistance to users - 5.3.1 Contact points are publicized. - Publications contain a general contact point for the NCSI. Contacts rely partly on informal relations that have been built over the years. - 5.3.2 Publications, documents, and other services, including information on any charges, are widely available. - The NCSI provides a full list of its publications. The NCSI has a library that is open to the public. --- *Source: _cr15159 - 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs* ### 0.2 Resources ### 0.2 Resources ### 0.2.1 Staff, facilities, computing resources, and financing - The budget of the GAD is allocated annually on a needs basis and is adequate to serve current needs. - The department comprises a director and nine other members and reports to the Director General of Treasury and Accounts. - Currently, the GAD has not assigned dedicated staff positions for the statistical compilation of Government Finance Statistics (GFS) data. - Staff workload and capacity: - Staff cope with the current workload but are often under pressure and regularly work additional hours. - GAD staff are well trained for current needs; proficient in computer literacy, English, economics, and the GFSM 1986. - Interpretation of the GFSM 2001 requires extra guidance through external expertise (e.g., IMF technical assistance). - GAD staff are well qualified and experienced in either accounting or business finance. - A former directorate member attended the IMF course on GFSM 2001 at the Arab Monetary Fund, later left the Ministry, but transferred some knowledge and set up the Classification Assistant files for GFSY reporting. - Staffing and remuneration context: - Staff in the civil service are appointed in accordance with the CSL. - GAD experienced relatively high staff turnover in recent years, which has declined following a recent revision of the CSL that standardized salaries and employee benefits across the Omani public administration. - Government employees, including MOF staff, receive remuneration commensurate to their qualifications, across budgetary central government units. - Previously, remuneration levels were at the discretion of each government unit. - Government is regarded as a secure employer and offers benefits like shorter office hours, which partially counter better remuneration in financial sectors (CBO, commercial banks, and private financial institutions). - Systems, facilities, and equipment: - The fiscal accounts of government are fully computerized. - The IFS is in use in all budgetary government units, is integrated with the Human Resource System, and provides facilities for all data collection and processing in the MOF. - The system integrates the budget process and the recording of final outcomes of government’s finances. - The GAD is highly organized, achieving an almost paperless environment. - Hardware and software needs are sufficiently served by the network; facilities are spacious and modern and computer equipment are up to date. ### 0.2.2 Measures to ensure efficient use of resources - Legal and managerial controls: - Financial Law: all ministers are responsible for ensuring government resources are used efficiently and in accordance with the law during the execution of their tasks; misuse must be reported to the MOF and rectified immediately. - PPPPCI (law only available in Arabic) applies to all public employees (permanent and temporary) and reportedly stipulates that government employees: - must at all times ensure the proper use of government property, - may not in any way derive additional personal benefits from their employment position, - may not assist any third party to benefit from government property, - must at all times act according to the best expectations of them according to their position. - Human resource management practices: - Performance of all government employees is evaluated annually under the CSL with documented evaluations held centrally at the Ministry of Civil Services (MOCS). - Evaluations are used to identify needs for in-house, external, or international training. - Ample resources are available for training (management, software, topical). - Managers can reward exceptional performance through performance bonuses. - Management has discretion to reallocate resources within the budget as priorities arise. ### 0.3 Relevance - Monitoring of relevance and user engagement: - MOF, Ministry of Planning, line ministries, and other policymakers (including the CBO) primarily use fiscal data for determining, monitoring, and evaluating fiscal policy. - User needs outside government are not actively sought; the ministry depends on users to seek consultation. - Interaction with the Ministry of Planning is intensive. - MOF gathers user information through informal contact and engages with the media, seeking rectification for erroneous reporting. - Fiscal data produced by the MOF are used by the Fund for surveillance purposes. ### 0.4 Other quality management - 0.4.1 Processes to focus on quality: - Since the 2004 ROSC mission, MOF has maintained a focus on quality management. - The IFS has built-in quality controls with routine internal audits and independent state audit processes. - Budgetary central government statistics are produced directly from IFS where accounting and classification rules are embedded. - IFS work processes include continuous reviews of output quality. - MOF regularly seeks expert guidance on technical, management, and technological aspects and consults with NCSI for supplying GFS data to National Accounts. - 0.4.2 Processes to monitor quality during planning and implementation: - Collection, processing and dissemination of fiscal data are monitored through well-established quality control processes. - All payment transactions are automatically verified against approved budgeted amounts in the fully computerized IFS. - Verified transactions require a payment voucher, pre-audit by internal auditors (checking and validating the nature of the transaction), MOF approval, capture in IFS, GAD control, then final payment issued. - Similar quality control processes exist for revenue and debt transactions. - Significant errors are published as rectifications in the official gazette. - Quality control culminates in random and routine audits by the State Audit Institution under Royal Decree No, 111/2011 (SAL). - The State Audit Institution is an autonomous legal entity with financial, administrative, and operational independence. - It is responsible for performance and financial audits of all government entities, wholly and partially owned public entities, entities receiving guaranteed or subsidized debt, and companies granted concessions for public utilities or natural resources. - Audit process requires regular reviews of noncompliance; audit reports document contraventions and require investigations. - Results, steps to rectify, and steps to prevent recurrence must be documented and submitted to the State Audit Office within 30 days. - An annual report containing issues of special significance is submitted to His Majesty, the Sultan. ### 1. Assurances of integrity ### 1.1 Institutional Integrity - 1.1.1 Statistics are produced on an impartial basis: - GFS are compiled from underlying administrative records of fiscal data and government accounts. - The Financial Law assigns responsibility for compiling government accounts and ensures independence and authority of fiscal data compilers; the law ensures the professional independence of the MOF without interference from other government agencies. - The Financial Law does not legally assign MOF responsibility for compiling GFS, although MOF has done so by convention for several years. - Underlying fiscal data are published by the NCSI and CBO, establishing implicit co-ownership. - Staff are appointed by the MOCS; MOF submits staff requirements to MOCS who appoint staff through an open public enrollment process including a targeted skills assessment. - Professionalism is promoted via formal and on-the-job training and participation in regional and international seminars, courses, and workshops. - 1.1.2 Choices of sources and techniques are informed solely by statistical considerations: - Budgetary central government data are based on actual records in the IFS and align with GFSM 1986, making them the obvious choice for compiling GFS. - Comprehensive records eliminate the need to supplement budgetary account statistical information; additional data are required for rest of general government and public sectors. - Decisions on data dissemination, timing, media, and other aspects are primarily vested in legal requirements, such as the Financial Law. - 1.1.3 The appropriate statistical entity can comment on erroneous interpretation and misuse: - MOF monitors media coverage, allows senior officials to provide technical interpretation, and permits response to public misinterpretations of GFS data; customs and regulations deal with data misinterpretations. ### 1.2 Transparency - 1.2.1 Terms and conditions for collection, processing, dissemination are publicly available: - Chart of accounts aligned with GFSM 1986 means the Financial Law implicitly governs fiscal data methodology. - MOF is collaborating with the World Bank to revise the chart of accounts with a plan to complete alignment with GFSM 2001 by end-2017; the Financial Law is under revision to account for proposed changes. - Circulars and regulations related to budgeting and planning are regularly issued and published in the government gazette available from the Ministry of Legal Affairs. - MOF issues financial circulars yearly to spell out budgeting process and terms/conditions for compiling government accounts. - Several documents disclosing terms and conditions are available only in Arabic; MOF officials are willing to assist in acquiring them but availability is not publicized. - 1.2.2 Internal governmental access prior to release is publicly identified: - MOF releases monthly fiscal data to the NCSI and CBO 15 days after the reference month; these agencies publish the data approximately 2 weeks later. - The State Audit Institute, all members of the Financial Affairs and Energy Resources Council, and the Secretariat-General of Cabinet also receive these data 15 days after the reference month. - Information on the extent of internal government access to statistics prior to public release is not made public. - 1.2.3 Products are clearly identified: - Fiscal data disseminated in publications and websites are identified as compiled by the MOF; data obtained from other agencies are acknowledged in footnotes and MOF requests attribution when its statistics are used or reproduced. - 1.2.4 Advance notice of major methodological changes: - Methodology changes seldom occur; advanced notice of major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques are not published in advance. ### 1.3 Ethical standards - 1.3.1 Guidelines for staff behavior: - Civil servants are recruited and appointed according to CSL; government employees are subject to the PPPPCI governing misuse of privileged information and government property. - Financial Law stipulates specific responsibilities and behavior of MOF staff; copies of these laws are readily available to staff. - Ethical behavior is guided by the “Employee’s Rights and Duties Directory,” available to all staff; it specifies conditions of employment, conduct expectations, duties, responsibilities, and disciplinary actions. - A strong culture for ethical standards is enhanced by management practices, mentoring, and peer review. ### 2. Methodological soundness ### 2.1 Concepts and definitions - 2.1.1 Structure follows internationally accepted standards: - Fiscal accounts follow the MOF’s operational and budgetary analytical framework based on GFSM 1986; all civil ministries follow this framework and GFSM 1986 is embedded in ministries’ chart of accounts. - Defense and national security expenditure and expenditure on oil and gas production are reported as aggregates and not delineated according to the same chart of accounts. - MOF bridges fiscal accounts to the GFSM 2001 cash basis of accounting format when compiling the GFSY; MOF evaluates whether cash inflows/outflows refer to revenue, expenditure, or financing. - Some significant financing transactions (related to equity injections) are presented in fiscal data as expenditure, signifying a departure from GFSM 2001 methodology. - Cash-based framework cannot capture some concepts (consumption of fixed capital, other accounts payable, imputations) that would be captured in an accrual framework. - MOF has started compiling the financial balance sheet; stock positions and flows largely follow assets and liabilities concepts except some financing transactions explained above. - Starting the fiscal year 2017 the chart of accounts will incorporate GFSM 2001 concepts and definitions into the fiscal accounts, including accrual accounting concepts such as other accounts receivable, and accrued interest. ### 2.2 Scope - 2.2.1 Scope consistency with international standards: - GFS scope is not fully consistent with international standards; gaps remain. - Since the 2004 ROSC mission, MOF identified a comprehensive list of public sector institutional units during the IMF GFS technical assistance mission in April 2014, but misses a few units such as the Chambers of Commerce and the Capital Market Authority. - All institutional units on the list were provisionally classified according to GFSM 2001 into subsectors of general government and the public sector. - Data for general government units are available and being compiled but not disseminated; best practice would be to disseminate general government data when relevant data are available. - General government comprises the budgetary central government and extra budgetary central government; budgets of governorates and municipalities are consolidated as part of central government account. - Extra budgetary account comprises several regulatory authorities. - Sultanate of Oman has three sovereign wealth funds (SWFs): the State General Reserve Fund, the Oman Investment Fund and the Petroleum Reserve Fund; according to GFSM 2001 these are part of the budgetary central government, however although data is available, these are not included in data reported for the GFSY submission. - Public sector comprises several nonfinancial and financial corporations including Central Bank of Oman, Oman Housing Bank, Oman LNG, Oman Tel and Oman Air. - Public financial sector includes Pension Funds (autonomous defined benefit schemes): Civil Service pension fund covers civil servants; Public Authority for Social Insurance covers private sector employees who are compelled by law to contribute to the fund. - All other social security is administered as part of the budgetary central government. - MOF has been publishing fiscal data and compiling/submitting to IMF GFSY data based on the budgetary central government (excluding SWFs) in a time series dating back to 1980. - Since the 2004 ROSC mission, MOF has started expanding scope by compiling (but not yet disseminating) the extra budgetary central government. - MOF publishes fiscal data on revenue, expense and balance sheet flows; since the 2004 ROSC mission MOF has started compiling (but not yet disseminated) stock positions of the financial balance sheet. ### 2.3 Classification/sectorization - 2.3.1 Classification systems consistency: - Revenue, grants, expenditure, lending, repayments and financing are broadly classified according to GFSM 1986. - Fiscal data summarized tables present the following classification: - Revenue data are classified into five categories: - Net oil revenue, - Natural gas revenue, - Other current (subdivided into taxes and non-tax revenue in the detailed tables), - Capital revenue and - Capital repayments (which comprise repayments of lending to public authorities and other establishments). - Expenditure are classified into the following categories: - Current expenditure. - Defense and security expenditure.* - Civil ministries expenditure.** - Oil production expenditure.* - Gas production expenditure.* - Interest on loans. - Capital expenditure. - Development expenditure for civil ministries.** - Capital expenditure for civil ministries.** - Oil production expenditure.* - Gas production expenditure.* - Participation and subsidy to the private sector. - Subsidies to development & housing loans interests. - Participation in domestic, regional and international establishments. - Subsidies to the electricity sector. - Subsidies to the petroleum sector. - Notes: - * Data are reported as aggregates and not delineated according to the chart of accounts. - ** Data are reported as aggregate and delineated according to the chart of accounts. - Fiscal data is bridged to the GFSY 2001 cash basis of recording format; resulting classification is broadly consistent with GFSM 2001, although some line items should be classified elsewhere within the revenue and expenditure aggregates. - Noteworthy caveat: Current defense and security expenditure is classified as the Use of goods and services (22) but includes significant amounts related to capital expenditure and compensation of employees; an unknown amount of Acquisition nonfinancial assets (31) and Compensation of employees (21) is erroneously classified as Use of goods and services (22). - Additional points: - Although total revenue and total expenditure are generally classified correctly, some revenue and expense classification could be reevaluated to better reflect components of government consumption, including equity injections. - Classification of institutional units in general government and public sector explained in 2.3.1. - MOF uses the annual Final State Accounts to compile the GFSY and bridges individual items to the GFSM 2001 classification; the bridging would be enhanced if documented in a centralized register and updated annually. - The register would be further enhanced if rationale and/or GFSM 2001 references were documented and could be shared with NCSI and CBO to support consistency within all macroeconomic statistics. *Source: _cr15159 - 0.2 Resources* ### 2.4 Basis for recording ### 2.4 Basis for recording ### Valuation and recording basis - Market prices are used to value flows and stocks. - Stock positions of all assets and liabilities are recorded at face value or book value; transactions are recorded on a cash basis. - Only transactions and no other economic flows are recorded; no assets or liabilities are recorded according to market values or an appropriate proxy. - Foreign currency stock positions are converted to Omani Rials using the appropriate spot exchange rate at the end of the fiscal period. - Recording is done on an accrual basis. - All budgetary central government revenue, expenditure, and financing transactions are recorded on a cash basis, and checks received and paid or issued basis. - Stocks in suspense accounts are included in deposit stock positions to ensure reconciliation with cash inflows and outflows within a fiscal period. - Interest accrued is administered and recorded as a separate line item; interest is recorded on cash received or paid basis. - Most goods and services are paid within a few business days of delivery. - Grossing/netting procedures broadly follow GFSM 2001 guidelines; exceptions noted: - Oil revenue is published net of transfers. - Grants are recorded net. - Financial balance sheet data are correctly shown on a gross and/or net basis as recommended by GFSM 2001. --- ### 3. Accuracy and reliability ### Source data - Source data are obtained from comprehensive data collection programs that take into account country-specific conditions. - Budgetary central government source data: - Comprehensive and based on accurate and reliable administrative records in well-established electronic systems with a real-time online link to the GAD. - Provide complete geographical coverage of budgetary central government in Oman. - MOF maintains complete records of government borrowings, guarantees issued by government, and related interest flows in the IFS. - Detailed records of government investments, subsidies, and transfers to government agencies are available in real time. - Financial data on sovereign wealth funds are available to the MOF. - Extra budgetary central government units and public sector corporations: - Source data based on annual audited financial statements. - MOF does not have a secure collection remit supported by the Statistical Law. - Source data reasonably approximate required definitions, scope, classifications, valuation, and time of recording: - Civil ministries align with GFSM 1986 and a cash basis of recording. - Non civil service ministries data recorded at an aggregated level; significant expenditure appropriated to unlikely classifications. - Market values are not available from the IFS; securities recorded at book or face value. - Extra budgetary central government data derived from financial statements that do not necessarily bridge to GFSM 2001 classifications, though revenue, expenditure and financing aggregates can be determined; these data are recorded on an accrual basis and market value. - Timeliness of source data: - Budgetary central government data available from IFS in real time, with monthly statements available. - Finalized annual data available from the State’s Final Account 6 months after the end of the reference year. - Annual extra budgetary central government data available after release of audited financial statements, varying between 3 and 6 months after the end of the reference financial year. ### Assessment of source data - Source data (censuses, administrative records) are routinely assessed for coverage, errors, and monitored: - IFS source data are internally consistent and subject to internal and external audit controls. - Extra budgetary central government data subject to external audits and internally consistent. ### Statistical techniques - Data compilation employs sound statistical techniques: - Fiscal data compilation simplified by budgetary central government reliance on IFS data and the State’s Final Account. - Extra budgetary account inclusion is aggregation from financial statements; no estimates required. - Main complexity is classification of line items; requires annual review for new or irregular transactions. - Other statistical procedures: - MOF compiles GFS data through simple aggregation and adjusts fiscal data by netting market producers’ transactions included on a gross basis and consolidating intra-government transactions. - No other adjustment and transformation procedures are employed in compiling GFS. ### Assessment and validation of intermediate data and outputs - Compilation employs sound administrative and statistical techniques. - Statistical discrepancies in intermediate data are assessed and investigated according to quality-monitoring processes. - Discrepancies are treated as indicators of possible problems in source data and investigated to make improvements. ### Revision studies - Revisions result from regular (annual) audit processes, supplemented with random and internal audits. - Well-documented audit trail serves as revision studies; audit reports document nature of discrepancies discovered. - No other revisions or revision studies are performed for fiscal statistics. --- ### 4. Serviceability ### Periodicity and timeliness - Periodicity: - GDDS recommends quarterly dissemination for central government operations and annual for central government debt; encourages monthly operations and quarterly debt. - Periodicity of central government operations follows GDDS recommendations; debt data do not follow GDDS recommendations. - Although GFS data are only available annually, fiscal proxy data are disseminated monthly and quarterly. - Government-guaranteed debt data are not published. - Timeliness: - GDDS recommends release of central government operations within one quarter after the reference period. - Oman’s budgetary account operations are released within 45 days after the end of the reference period. - MOF provides these data to the CBO and the NCSI 15 days after the end of the reference period. - December data are only available after the State’s Final Account becomes available 6 months after the end of the fiscal year (June); the fourth quarter is therefore published 1 quarter later than recommended by GDDS. - Suggestion: data could be reported as timely if the State Audit Law is amended to allow preliminary release of December data. - For central government debt data GDDS recommends release within one to-two quarters after the reference period. - The CBO disseminates central government debt data in its annual report, available online 6 months after the reference year; therefore central government debt data adheres to GDDS timeliness. - A comprehensive debt report, including guaranteed debt, is compiled monthly but not disseminated to the public. - Central government operations and debt data in GFSM 2001 format are normally available within 11 months after the end of the reference period. ### Consistency - Internal consistency: - Fiscal data are internally consistent; monthly and quarterly data accumulate to annual data; major aggregates equal sum of components. - Deficit calculated by MOF equals financing; all bank balances reconciled with accounting records. - Outstanding suspension accounts included in closing balance of currency and deposits. - Time-series consistency: - MOF has compiled consistent time series from 1980 onward. - Break in data recorded in 1988 when classification aligned with GFSM 1986. - Changes in source data or government unit structure are seldom introduced; when they occur, historical series reconstructed on a best-effort basis and breaks are explained in footnotes and State’s Final Accounts commentary. - Cross-domain consistency: - GAD fiscal data serve as primary source for national accounts and balance of payments for the general government sector. - Consistency between GFSY, balance of payments, monetary statistics, and national accounts cannot be verified. - No systems in place to coordinate and document consistent classification of transactions, institutional units and GFS-specific concepts across domains. ### Revision policy and practice - Revisions follow legal framework and a schedule made publicly available in September each year. - Monthly data revisions restricted to minor post-corrections that may only be made by the GAD within a month of the reference month. - Annual data may be revised only after completion of independent state audits. - Revisions are generally not material and due to minor corrections and misclassifications. - Revision cycle: preliminary data replaced by final audited data; revised data are not explicitly indicated. - Preliminary and/or revised data identification: - Budgetary central government data published only once finalized; where applicable, identified as preliminary. - Users are not generally informed about cause or effect of revisions due to unavailability of audit reports to the public. - Studies and analysis of revisions: - Revisions stemming from audit result in revisions of monthly data. - Annual budgetary account data are compiled once in final audited form. - Audit trail records discrepancies, reasons, corrective steps, and measures to avoid recurrence; audit documents are for internal use and not available for public consumption. - Generally, revisions are immaterial. --- ### 5. Accessibility ### Data accessibility - Presentation and comparability: - Annual GFS data disseminated according to GFSM 2001 components in the GFSY. - Fiscal operations use national presentation in the State’s Final Accounts; include charts and tables, present data by items, ministries, and national functional classifications. - Time series present reference fiscal year compared with the preceding five years; outcomes compared with the budget for that year. - CBO and NCSI disseminate monthly budgetary account operations data with commentaries; these publications follow sound statistical practices. - Data on outstanding government debt disseminated in GFSY and by CBO as breakdown between domestic and foreign debt; explanatory notes or details on total government debt are not available publicly. - Internally available government debt report (available in Arabic) contains details on outstanding debt with breakdowns by debt holder, instrument, currency, and maturity; includes detailed information on guarantees. - Dissemination media and format: - MOF publishes annual fiscal data in the State’s Final Account as hardcopy and on the MOF website. - MOF reports GFS data for the GFSY. - Monthly fiscal data are routinely compiled and distributed by MOF to CBO and NSCI; published on CBO and NCSI websites. - Publications available in PDF or Excel format and cannot be retrieved from a database providing easy access to long time series. - Monthly time series are relatively short in these publications; historical data accessible through special requests to disseminating agencies. - Publications available in Arabic and English. - Recommendation: improve access via a comprehensive database and cross-links on agency websites. - Limited central government debt data available in GFSY and CBO publications; dissemination format lacks user-needed details though underlying source systems contain them. - Release schedule: - Monthly fiscal data released on CBO and NCSI websites according to a preannounced schedule. - State’s Final Accounts released six months after the end of the fiscal year per Financial Law and circulars. - State’s budgets released on January 1. - Release of GFS for publication in the GFSY relies on IMF STA release schedule. - MOF has no other preannounced release schedule for monthly data. - Accessibility to all users: - Annual statistics made available to all users simultaneously; no preferential treatment identified. - Non-routine data availability: - Special requests subject to management approval; unpublished data made available free upon request. - Procedure and availability not explicitly stated in MOF publications; general contact details provided on MOF website and IMF DSBB metadata contains MOF contact details. ### Metadata accessibility - Documentation: - No detailed documentation exists of concepts, scope, classifications, basis for recording, data sources, and statistical techniques, though broad guidelines are in the Financial Law. - Summarized metadata available on IMF’s DSBB website; MOF publications do not cross-refer to DSBB. - Levels of detail: - Metadata not specifically adapted to needs of different users. ### Assistance to users - Contact points: - MOF’s website provides a general telephone and email address for queries. - Contact person for GFS is publicized in IMF’s DSBB metadata for Oman. - MOF reported receiving only one query in the last 5 years. - NCSI contact via web-form, central telephone, or post; CBO contact via email, central telephone, or post. - Publications and services: - The MOF, CBO and NCSI make data freely available on their respective websites and in hardcopy. --- *Source: _cr15159 - 2.4 Basis for recording* ### 0. Prerequisites of quality ### 0. Prerequisites of quality ### 0.1 Legal and institutional environment - The MOF’s remit is well supported by the Financial Law. - The MOF produces GFS without an explicit remit in the Statistical Law, which hinders its data collection process. - Recommendation: Revise the Statistical Law and Fiscal Law to expand the remit and assign full collection, compilation and publication rights and responsibilities. - Monetary statistics: The CBO is responsible for collecting, compiling and disseminating analytical accounts of the central bank and the ODCs; legal authority provided by the Banking Law (Royal Decree No. 114/2000 and subsequent amendments). - Article 17(a) of the Banking Law states: “The Central Bank shall prepare a monthly statement for distribution to each governor showing the financial condition of the Central Bank, including a statement of the domestic and foreign currencies held as reserves, the amount, nature and maturity of commercial papers and other negotiable instruments owned or held by the Central Bank and a statement of the assets and liabilities of the Central Bank. A summary of such statements shall be prepared for publication in the official gazette quarterly.” - The Statistical Law (Royal Decree No. 29/2001) implicitly empowers the CBO; Article (4) allows government units to gather and publish statistical data within an annual plan approved by the Statistical Advisory Committee (SAC). - The mission notes the Statistical Law is undergoing revision following Royal Decrees No. 40/2014 and No. 31/2012 and encourages stronger legal mandate for macroeconomic statistics; suggests explicit recognition in the Banking Law of the CBO responsibility to compile and disseminate monetary statistics. ### 0.2 Resources - The MOF is sufficiently resourced, and has ample funding for training. - There are no statistical positions in the MOF dedicated to compilation of GFS. - Recommendation: Appoint staff dedicated to GFS compilation. - Within the CBO, the Economic Research and Statistics Department (ERSD) holds primary responsibility for compiling monetary statistics and collects requisite source data pursuant to Articles 17(a) and 72(a) of the Banking Law. - Banking returns RD1 through RD15 are designed to meet both statistical and supervisory needs and to reduce reporting burden on banks. ### 0.3 Relevance - Fiscal data are relevant and extensively used for fiscal policy purposes, by the Cabinet, the Ministry of Planning, the IMF. ### 0.4 Other quality management - (No specific text beyond the assessment marker "X".) ### 1. Assurances of integrity #### 1.1 Institutional integrity - (Assessment marker "X". No further detail in the GFS section.) #### 1.2 Transparency - Cabinet ministers have access to statistical data before available to the general public and no advance notice is given of methodological changes. - Recommendation: Publish this information on the MOF, NCSI and CBO websites. #### 1.3 Ethical standards - (Assessment marker "X".) ### 2. Methodological soundness #### 2.1 Concepts and definitions - The MOF bridges data from the fiscal accounts to the GFSM 2001 cash bases of accounting format when compiling the GFSY. - Concepts such as the consumption of fixed capital, other accounts payable or imputations are not captured, which would otherwise be captured in an accrual framework. - Recommendation: Implement a Chart of Accounts based on the GFSM 2001. #### 2.2 Scope - Current compilation covers transactions and stock positions only for budgetary central government. - Data related to extra budgetary and sovereign wealth funds are not reported. - Recommendation: Compile data for general government that include all government units into [the compilation], considering that data are available. #### 2.3 Classification/sectorization - The nature of current defense and security expenditure cannot be delineated—therefore data for use of goods and services include capital expenditure and compensation of employees. - Recommendation: Include delineation in new Chart of Accounts based on GFSM 2014. #### 2.4 Basis for recording - Current basis: Cash recording, face or book value. Payments occur within short period of delivery. - Recommendation: Adopt accrual accounting, as is currently being implemented in the new Chart of Accounts based on GFSM 2014. ### 3. Accuracy and reliability - 3.1 Source data: Assessment marker "X". - 3.2 Assessment of source data: Assessment marker "X". - 3.3 Statistical techniques: Assessment marker "X". - 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs: Assessment marker "X". - 3.5 Revision studies: Assessment marker "X". ### 4. Serviceability #### 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness - Monthly operations data available within one month, except December data, which is available six months after the end of the fiscal year. - Debt data is only available annually with 6 months after the end of the fiscal year. - Recommendation: Change the Financial Law/State Audit Law to allow for preliminary releases of data. #### 4.2 Consistency - Although inputs are the same, consistency between GFSY cannot be verified with balance of payments, monetary and financial statistics, and national accounts. - Recommendation: Implement a coordination committee to coordinate and centrally document classification of institutional units and economic phenomena. #### 4.3 Revision policy and practice - Assessment marker "X". ### 5. Accessibility #### 5.1 Data accessibility - Data are only available in Excel or PDF format and not as an database with long time series. #### 5.2 Metadata accessibility - Summarized metadata is only available on the IMF website. No cross reference is provided to the DSBB website. #### 5.3 Assistance to users - (Assessment marker "X" and no extended detail in the GFS section.) --- ### Selected details from Monetary Statistics section (relevant legal and operational points) - Circular BM 1058 dated September 14, 2009 provides legal authority for the CBO to collect data required to compile monetary statistics and requires banks to submit balance sheet data using the revised banking returns. - Article 2 of the Circular states the RD returns have been revised to be broadly in conformity with the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual of the IMF and stipulates reporting timelines (no later than the 15th of every following month). - Banking returns include: RD1 (Balance Sheet: Assets), RD2 (Balance Sheet: Liabilities), RD3 (Statement of Off Balance Sheet Items), RD7A and RD7B (Detailed deposits of and loans to the various government sectors), RD8 (Interest Rates on Domestic Interbank Lending and Borrowing), RD9-12 (Detailed sectoral breakdown on deposits and loans), and RD15 (Annual Statement of Earnings and Expenses). - Article 74 of the Banking Law: “A licensed bank which shall fail to cooperate in any examination by the Central Bank or to submit reports required under this Law shall be subject to suspension or withdrawal of its license or such other sanctions as may be appropriate pursuant to Article 14(g) and 83 of this Law.” - Statistical Law penalties: Article (10) of the Statistical Law stipulates violations to confidentiality shall be sentenced for a maximum period of imprisonment for six months or a fine not exceeding five hundreds Omani Rials (i.e., around US$1,300) or both punishments. - Additional Statistical Law provision: Article (10) also stipulates “Any person who refuses to provide the required data or knowingly provide incorrect data as per the provisions of this Law shall be punishable with a fine not exceeding three hundreds Omani Rials. Any person who fails to provide the required data within the specified date shall be considered as refusing to provide such data, unless he/she proves that the delay was due to an acceptable excuse.” - CBO confidentiality and staff rules: Staff Regulations (third edition effective January 1, 2004) and CBO’s Code of Ethics (e.g., Article 1.15 on passwords; Article 1.14 on confidentiality) require staff to safeguard confidentiality; Article 24(a), 24(b), and 24(c) of the Banking Law set limits on disclosure and penalties for breach. *Source: _cr15159 - 0. Prerequisites of quality* ### 0.2 Resources ### 0.2 Resources ### Staff, facilities, computing resources, and financing - Overall staff is adequate for the compilation of monetary statistics. - ERSD staffing: - ERSD has 22 staff members, five of whom are assigned to the Money and Banking Section (MBS). - Two staff are responsible for statistical concepts and methodology. - MBS responsibilities: collecting, compiling, and disseminating monetary statistics. - Dissemination to international financial organizations, including to the IMF, is done by the International Relations Department (IRD). - Staff recruitment and qualifications: - Little turnover; core staff with adequate training and experience is maintained. - New staff recruited on a competitive basis; only candidates with bachelor’s degrees (economics/computer science) or, preferably, with master’s degree are recruited to professional posts. - New recruits receive on-the-job training and encouraged to participate in seminars/courses within and outside the CBO. - Staff attend courses offered by multilateral and international institutions (IMF, Arab Monetary Fund, other GCC). - From the five MBS staff, four have attended the Monetary and Financial Statistics (MFS) course (one in Washington D.C., three at the IMF’s Regional Training Center in Kuwait). - Computer resources and IT practices: - Hardware and software are adequate. - Each MBS staff is provided with one desktop computer. - ITD backs up the database weekly on a network server; ERSD performs monthly backups on compact disks. - Computer hardware is replaced regularly, usually within three years of use. - Necessary software for compiling monetary statistics is provided by ITD upon ERSD request. - Budget and financing: - ERSD submits annual budget to the CBO’s Budget Committee; additional resources requested through budget process as needed. - Budget Committee reviews proposals and submits recommendations to the Executive President; draft budget debated and approved by the Board of Governors. ### Measures to ensure efficient use of resources - Performance management and talent development: - Annual performance review process improved; key performance indicators (KPI) applied in staff performance assessment. - Continuous monitoring throughout the year with quarterly performance review. - Head of MBS evaluates each staff and sends evaluations to Manager of ERSD; Vice President reviews; reports submitted to Annual Increment Review Committee for salary increase and promotion. - CBO Human Resource Department and ERSD management define competency gaps, training needs, and administrative actions within the Talent Management Initiative. - Efficiency features: - Performance appraisals and continuous monitoring ensure efficient resource use. - Adequate computer facilities contribute to efficiency. - Periodic discussions with banking control departments streamline data gathering from banks and reporting within the CBO. - Ongoing initiatives: - CBO undergoing comprehensive review of all internal processes with view to developing and implementing additional efficiency measures starting from 2015. ### 0.3 Relevance ### Monitoring relevance and user needs - Ongoing monitoring of market developments and identification of gaps in data collection. - ERSD conducts seminars targeted for principal data users including academia (lecturers and students from Sultan Qaboos University, College of Banking and Financial Studies (CBFS), and other colleges) to inform on current data, usefulness of existing statistics, and emerging data needs. - ERSD receives feedback from seminars and monitors usability of published monetary statistics. - Compilation priority: primarily to meet requirements of macroeconomic analysis and policymaking of the CBO. - Senior CBO officials participate in statistical meetings and seminars organized by professional organizations (International Statistical Institute, Irving Fisher Committee on Central Bank Statistics, Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, and others). ### 0.4 Other quality management ### Processes to focus on quality - CBO places high importance on statistical quality. - CBO has implemented all key recommendations made by the 2004 ROSC; implementation significantly improved monetary statistics. - Medium-term plan to integrate work program with MFSM and MFSCG completed with new banking returns implemented in September 2009. - CBO follows developments in international accounting standards (IAS), such as IAS 39. - In financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2013, CBO adopted all new and revised standards and interpretations issued by IASB and IFRIC relevant to its operations. - Quality assurance practices: - Yearly action plan and periodic work program for monetary statistics compilation. - Staff training programs, computerized data processing and cross-checking procedures. - Ongoing discussions with other departments, banks, and MOF on data issues. - If data for any major category for any given bank exceed data in a previous monthly return by more than 10 percent, the bank is immediately contacted for explanation. - Training and redundancy: - ERSD training budget supports language skills in English and subject fields (accounting and finance). - Some staff sent abroad for graduate programs under contract to remain in service for several years on return. - Each MBS staff expected to be fully knowledgeable about banking returns (source data); absence of any staff can be covered by others to ensure timely monthly compilation. ### Processes to monitor quality during planning and implementation - Banking returns system contains built-in algorithms facilitating crosschecking across returns from individual banks. - Example: loans on assets side (RD1) and deposits on liabilities side (RD2) crosschecked with detailed information in RD9–RD12. - A macro program automatically produces crosschecking tables across various banking returns. - Positions between banks and the CBO reported in RD1 to RD3 are crosschecked with the CBO balance sheet to ensure dataset consistency. - ERSD work program and yearly action plan provide ongoing quality monitoring mechanism. - CBO balance sheet undergoes internal and external auditing. ### Processes to consider quality in statistical program planning - Quality improvement is continuous and embedded in planning activities. - Banking Law amended in December 2009 to introduce a section on Islamic Banking. - Starting in January 2013, ERSD received banking returns from Islamic banks in Oman. - Islamic banks’ assets relatively small: 4.9 percent (based on August 2014 data) of total assets of commercial banks. - Data from Islamic banks monitored with a view to including them in coverage of ODCs by January 2015. - CBO monitors financial markets for new developments and instruments. - IAS 39 adopted since 2001 to value financial instruments by CBO and banks. - Feedback from internal and external users, and MOF, is considered to improve collection and compilation. - In trade-off between timeliness and accuracy/reliability, accuracy/reliability is given priority. ### 1. Assurances of integrity ### Institutional integrity - CBO Code of Ethics and Staff Regulations promote professional conduct. - Article 1.2: “Employees shall take all reasonable steps to develop their professional competence, skills, and job knowledge to a level consistent with their responsibilities through self-development initiatives and training programs.” - Article 1.3: “Employees shall apply their professional skill, judgment, care, and due diligence to the best of their ability at all times with honesty and integrity, and hold these above personal considerations.” - Capacity building and recruitment: - ERSD vacancies announced internally or externally with clear job descriptions and requirements. - Successful candidates selected solely on written test and oral interview performance. - After three-to-six month probation period, recruits are confirmed or employment terminated. - Staff encouraged to attend internal and external seminars; experts from GCC Stat and abroad provide on-the-job training and process reviews. - Professionalism and external engagement: - Staff encouraged to publish in CBO’s bimonthly Al Markazi and present papers externally with CBO clearance. - Legal basis for institutional independence: - Banking Law Article 6: “The Central Bank shall be a juristic person, financially and administratively independent.” - Banking Law Article 8(One): “The management of the Central Bank shall be entrusted to the Board of Governors which shall have full authority to perform all acts required for the management and operations of the Central Bank and the supervision of the banking business in the Sultanate of Oman.” ### Impartiality of data sources, techniques, and dissemination - Choices of source data and statistical techniques are based solely on statistical considerations. - ERSD collects source data directly from all the 16 commercial banks in the Sultanate of Oman with no estimation. - Dissemination based solely on statistical considerations. - Timeliness: Monthly data on balance sheets of the CBO and commercial banks, the monetary survey, and various interest rate tables are produced within 25 days after the end of the reference month. ### Ability to comment on misuse or erroneous interpretation - ERSD publishes explanatory notes to banking returns and metadata for monetary statistics on the CBO website (definitions of money supply, components, and factors). - CBO monitoring and response: - BDD gathers media articles about the CBO and provides copies to departments. - Instances of misinterpretation are few; when identified, CBO follows up and comments publicly in a timely manner via press release. - All outgoing press statements are signed by the Executive President. ### 1.2 Transparency ### Public access to terms and conditions - Banking Law, banking returns, explanatory notes, and metadata for monetary statistics are publicly available for download on the CBO website. - Hardcopy of the Banking Law is available at an affordable price. - The Law explicitly refers to CBO’s right to collect data and implicitly to compile and disseminate monetary statistics; it discusses confidentiality and penalties for noncompliance of reporting. - CBO website provides list of publications and background information. - Information on terms and conditions of statistical series compilation and dissemination is available on the country’s GDDS page on the IMF’s DSBB website with link from the CBO website. ### Internal governmental access prior to release - Data important for policy formulation are sometimes made available to MOF, NCSI, and other Ministries before public dissemination. - Prior access is acknowledged on the DSBB website with link from the CBO website. ### Identification of statistical products - CBO’s Monthly Statistical Bulletin, Quarterly Statistical Bulletin, and Annual Report clearly identify ERSD as responsible for publishing these documents. - Publications contain tables and charts prepared from data provided by CBO departments, other government institutions (MOF and NCSI), and some banks. - Tables based on CBO data identify CBO as source (without department name); tables based on other institutions attribute those institutions as source. - Other agencies’ publications that use CBO monetary statistics attribute the CBO as source. ### Advance notice of major methodological changes - Advance notice is not usually given to the public for major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques; changes are indicated by footnotes only after introduction. - Prior to implementation of new banking returns, CBO sent revised draft returns to commercial banks for feedback; relevant comments were incorporated in final version implemented in September 2009 (Circular BM 1058 dated September 14, 2009). - CBO is encouraged to announce in advance to the public when major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques are envisaged. ### 1.3 Ethical standards ### Staff behavior guidelines - Ethical standards covering conflicts of interest, discipline, and ethical issues are set out in Staff Regulations and Code of Ethics. - Procedures are well established, known to staff, and strictly enforced. - Examples of rules: - Annual detailed declarations on outside business interests. - Staff must seek permission to obtain loans from commercial banks beyond certain maximum levels. - Staff shall not accept commissions, gifts, gratuities, or benefits from customers, vendors, or service providers. - New recruits are briefed on Staff Regulations. - Copies of Staff Regulations and Code of Ethics in Arabic and English available on CBO intranet; hard copies kept in reference section of library. - Conflicts resolved via the CBO Grievances Committee. ### 2. Methodological soundness ### Concepts and definitions - Overall structure of concepts and definitions follows internationally accepted standards (MFSM and MFSCG) after implementation of 2004 ROSC recommendations. - Monetary statistics for central bank and ODCs are submitted to IMF using standardized report forms (SRFs) with proper sectorization and classification of financial instruments. - Surveys compiled and published in the IFS: central bank survey (CBS), ODCS, and depository corporations survey (DCS). - Definitions and composition: - “Broad money” defined as “M1” plus “quasi money” in CBO publications; equivalent to “broad money” in IFS. - “M1” comprises currency in circulation plus demand deposits of the resident sectors (excluding banks and central government) in Omani Rials. - “Quasi money” comprises liabilities of the CBO and commercial banks to resident sectors (excluding banks and central government) in forms of: - (i) savings and time deposits in Omani Rials; - (ii) all foreign currency deposits (demand, savings, and time deposits); - (iii) certificates of deposits (CDs) in both Omani Rials and foreign currencies; - (iv) import and margins deposits, which are not that restricted. - Counterparts of broad money in monetary survey: net claims on nonresidents and net domestic assets. - Gross positions of foreign assets and foreign liabilities are not separately shown in monetary survey but are available in CBO and commercial bank balance sheets in statistical bulletins. - Net domestic assets components: - (1) net claims on central government; - (2) claims on private sector; - (3) claims on public enterprises; - (4) other items (net). - The monetary survey does not provide further sector and instrument breakdown. - Recommendation: - CBO is encouraged to follow sectorization and instrument breakdown as prescribed in MFSM and MFSCG for the monetary survey published in statistical bulletins and Annual Report. *Source: _cr15159 - 0.2 Resources* ### 2.2 Scope ### _cr15159 - 2.2 Scope ### Scope of monetary statistics - The scope is broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices. - The scope of monetary statistics in Oman is largely in line with the guidelines outlined in the MFSM, except that Islamic banks that meet the definition of ODCs are not included. - The DC sector in Oman consists of the CBO and 16 resident commercial banks 43, of which, seven are domestic, and nine are branches of foreign banks. - Branches of domestic banks abroad are considered nonresidents and are not included in the coverage of ODCs. - There are two full-fledged Islamic banks and six conventional banks offering Islamic banking services through dedicated windows (Islamic windows), which are not included in the coverage of ODC subsector. - As of end-August 2014: - deposits of Islamic banks compared to those of 16 commercial banks amounted to 3.4 percent; - loans of Islamic banks compared to those of 16 commercial banks amounted to 5.2 percent. - Recommendation/finding: - Considering the increasing contribution of Islamic banks, the CBO is encouraged to include these Islamic banks in the coverage of ODCs. - Other financial corporations (OFCs) composition: - two specialized banks (Oman Housing Bank and Oman Development Bank) — do not have liabilities in the form of deposits or other deposit-liked instruments; - six finance and leasing companies; - 31 money exchange companies and 15 exchange establishments; - Muscat Securities Market (MSM); - a number of insurance corporations, pension funds, and brokerage houses. - Regulation and data compilation: - The CBO is the regulator only for the specialized banks, finance and leasing companies, and money exchange companies, whose asset sizes account only 1.5 percent, 3.8 percent, and 0.3 percent, respectively, compared to the assets size of commercial banks. - The CBO does not compile monetary data for the OFCs owing to data unavailability of the institutions that are not regulated and supervised by the CBO, especially insurance corporations and pension funds. - Institutional data sharing issues: - No authorities in Oman regulate and supervise pension funds. - The MOF receives financial statements from government owned pension funds but not from private pension funds. - The MCI supervises the insurance corporations and MSM. - Recommendation/finding: - The CBO is encouraged to discuss with the MOF and MCI regarding data collection and data sharing for the pension funds and insurance corporations with a view to compiling the OFC survey (OFCS) and financial corporations survey (FCS) in the future. ### Classification / sectorization - The classification/sectorization systems used are broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices. - The CBO has addressed most issues and findings in the 2004 ROSC related to sectorization and classification of financial instruments; sectorization and classification systems used by the CBO for compiling monetary statistics are in broad conformity with the MFSM and MFSCG. - Residency and sectorization: - The sectoral balance sheet of the CBO and ODCs first distinguishes non-residents and residents. - The CBO uses the residency criterion as outlined in the Balance of Payments Manual, sixth edition (BPM6). - The sectoral classification of the resident units, recommended in the MFSM and MFSCG, is as follow: 1. central bank; 2. ODCs; 3. OFCs—insurance corporations and pension funds; other financial intermediaries, except insurance corporations and pension funds; and financial auxiliaries; 4. central government; 5. state and local government; 6. public nonfinancial corporations; 7. other nonfinancial corporations; and 8. other resident sectors. - The sectoral classification of resident sectors in the banking returns and in the ODCS is consistent with MFSM and MFSCG. - The CBO balance sheet does not provide complete sectorization as in the banking returns due to the nature of central bank transactions, but the sectorization is sufficient for compilation of the CBS. - Classification of financial instruments: - The classification recommended in the MFSM and MFSCG is as follow: 1. monetary gold and SDRs; 2. currency and deposits; 3. securities other than shares; 4. loans; 5. insurance technical reserves; 6. financial derivatives; and 7. other accounts receivables and payables. - The classification scheme for financial instruments in the banking returns and in the ODCS is consistent with the MFSM and MFSCG. - The CBO balance sheet classification is more condensed but detailed information for compiling the CBS is available and additional information can be requested from the Accounting and Banking Operation Department (ABOD). - Other classification points: - The CBO’s positions with the IMF are appropriately classified in the central bank survey (and commensurately in the DCS) as foreign assets and foreign liabilities; SDR allocations are properly classified as liabilities to non-residents. - Repo transactions conducted by the CBO and commercial banks are correctly classified as collateralized loans following MFSM recommendation. - Publication recommendation: - The sectorization and classifications of financial instruments for monetary statistics published in the IFS are fully aligned with MFSM and MFSCG recommendations. - However, the CBO’s Monthly Statistical Bulletin, Quarterly Statistical Bulletin, and Annual Report publish monetary statistics at an aggregated level; the CBO is encouraged to improve sectorization and classification of financial instruments in its statistical bulletins to follow MFSM and MFSCG (see 5.1.1.). ### Basis for recording - Valuation (2.4.1) - Market prices are used to value flows and stocks. - Since January 2001, the CBO and the banks have been following IAS 39 to value financial assets and financial liabilities (see CBO, Banking Circular, BM 913 dated May 5, 2001); this recommends the use of market or fair values and aligns with MFSM recommendations. - Loan portfolio valuation: - The loan portfolio on commercial banks’ balance sheets is valued at book value (outstanding principal amount plus accrued interest) and is not adjusted for expected loan losses. - Provisions for expected loan losses are recorded as a separate liability item called “Provisions for Bad and Doubtful Debts” in return RD2, and are classified as “Provisions and Reserve Interest” in the “Commercial Banks Combined Balance Sheet”. - The CBO does not have provisions for bad loans because it does not lend to banks. - Valuation adjustments (including holding gains and losses) are recorded as “Assets Revaluation Reserves” in return RD2, and are part of “Other Liabilities” in the “Commercial Banks Combined Balance Sheet”. - Conclusion: In monetary statistics for Oman, all financial instruments are valued according to international standards and are consistent with the MFSM. - Recording basis (2.4.2) - Recording is done on an accrual basis. - The CBO compiles monetary statistics on an accrual basis; accrued interest is included as part of the underlying instruments; interest arrears are included in the underlying loan amount. - Transactions are recorded at the time they occur as recommended in the MFSM. - Grossing/netting procedures (2.4.3) - Gross presentation: - Assets and liabilities of the CBO and commercial banks are collected and compiled on a gross basis; claims on particular transactors are not netted against liabilities to those transactors. - Net presentation for analytical series: - In the monetary survey, DC’s positions with the central government and non-residents are presented on a net basis (e.g., net foreign assets and net claims on central government) for analytical usefulness, in line with MFSM guidelines. - Underlying gross data (e.g., foreign assets, foreign liabilities, claims on central government, liabilities to central government) are also shown in the balance sheets. - Consolidation practice: - In conformity with MFSM guidelines, the DCS and monetary survey are obtained by canceling out all outstanding claims and liabilities between central bank and ODCs, while preserving presentation of claims on and liabilities to: 1. non residents; 2. central government; and 3. private sectors that encompass non-financial corporations and other resident sectors (including households and NPISH). ### Accuracy and reliability #### Source data (3.1) - Data collection programs: - Source data for monetary statistics are the balance sheet of the CBO prepared by the ABOD and the balance sheet of commercial banks submitted electronically to the CBO using the banking returns (RD1 to RD3)47. - Commercial banks transmit banking returns to ERSD using a dedicated and secured connection to the server located at the ITD of the CBO; the ERSD can directly access individual bank returns to compile monetary statistics. - Revised banking returns: - The revised banking returns introduced in September 2009 have improved quality significantly; they were developed in consultation with commercial banks and comply fully with the MFSM.48 - The revised returns provide sufficient details to classify data by financial instruments and economic sectors, and contain important details such as assets and liabilities, off balance sheet items, detailed information on loans to and deposits of government sector, and detailed information on loans to and deposits of private sector. - Commercial banks were given a transition period when new returns were introduced (between November 2009 and March 2010) to align IT reporting systems. - Coverage of depository corporations: - The CBO maintains a comprehensive and up-to-date list of all commercial banks in the Sultanate of Oman as the core data source. - Coverage excludes Islamic banks, which are in early stages of development.49 - Islamic banks started reporting data to CBO in January 2013 and by end-August 2014, their total assets amounted to 4.9 percent of the total assets of commercial banks in the Sultanate of Oman. - The CBO expects to include Islamic banks in the coverage of ODC subsector by January 2015. - Source data alignment: - Source data reasonably approximate MFSM definitions, scope, sectorization, classifications, valuation, and time of recording. - The CBO prepared explanatory notes to the banking returns that provide definitions of financial instruments and sectors in the balance sheet (RD1 and RD2), as well as guidance on classification. #### Timeliness (3.1.3) - Availability: - Balance sheet data of the CBO are available within 10 days after the end of the reference month. - Balance sheet data of commercial banks are available within 15 days after the end of the reference month. - The ERSD needs about ten working days to compile monetary statistics. - Therefore, monetary statistics are usually compiled within 25 days after the end of the reference month. - Access: - Once the aggregated balance sheet is compiled and finalized by ERSD, a summary version is placed in the CBO’s secured network; commercial banks are provided secured access to download this aggregated balance sheet as soon as it is ready. (see 5.1.4) #### Assessment of source data (3.2) - Routine assessment: - The CBO routinely assesses the accuracy of CBO and commercial banks’ balance sheets. - ERSD developed an automated validation procedure (using macro program) to monitor data accuracy reported by individual commercial banks. - Accuracy and consistency of data submitted by an individual bank are crosschecked automatically across banking returns. - When inconsistencies occur, commercial banks are requested to make corrections. - Aggregated balance sheet is inspected by the Head of the MBS and approved by the Manager of the ERSD. - ERSD staff visually check returns; unusual movements prompt contact with commercial banks for follow-up; misreporting requires correction and resubmission. - Positions between commercial banks (RD1–RD3) and the CBO balance sheet are crosschecked for consistency. #### Statistical techniques and processing (3.3) - Data compilation techniques: - Electronic data reporting, sound data processing, and automated validation procedures used by ERSD contribute to accurate and timely monetary statistics. - ERSD staff compare current monthly data with previous months and investigate abnormalities due to operational changes or reporting errors. - For rare non-reporting (missing balance sheet), the CBO uses the latest reported balance sheet. - Other procedures: - Commercial banks submit banking returns by the 15th after the end of the reference month, with rare delays of one or two days. - Because data collection program is comprehensive, there is no need to make adjustments to compile monetary statistics. - No seasonal adjustments are carried out for monetary statistics. #### Validation of intermediate data and outputs (3.4) - Crosschecks: - Aggregated balance sheet of commercial banks computed from individual returns (RD1–RD3) is crosschecked against aggregate data from other returns (e.g., RD9–RD12 on deposits and lending by interest rates and RD15—lending by sectors). - For December data, ERSD crosschecks individual banks’ balance sheets (RD1 and RD2) with audited financial statements published on commercial banks’ websites. - Discrepancy assessment: - CBO routinely assesses consistency between source data for monetary statistics and other intermediate data. - Examples: - Holdings of CBO’s certificates of deposits reported by commercial banks crosschecked against CBO balance sheet and issuance reports prepared by Monetary Operation Department (MOD). - Holdings of government bonds reported by commercial banks crosschecked against securities database maintained by Muscat Clearing and Depository (MCD), shared with MOD. - Investigation procedures: - Procedures are in place to investigate classification or sectorization errors as sources of fluctuations or discrepancies. - Any reporting errors and out-of-trend reporting by banks are immediately investigated and addressed. *Source: _cr15159 - 2.2 Scope* ### 3.5 Revision studies ### 3.5 Revision studies ### Overview and current practice - Studies and analyses of revisions and/or updates are carried out and used internally to inform statistical processes (see also 4.3.3.). - There is no formal revision study for monetary statistics conducted by the CBO. - Any deviations, omissions, misreporting, processing error, and other potential problems in the data (e.g., erroneous sectorization of institutional units/misclassification of financial instruments) are identified, investigated, eventually corrected, and published by the CBO as definitive monetary data. - The CBO is encouraged to conduct revision studies for monetary statistics to assess the differences between the initial data against the revised or final data over a given period of time. The studies shall comprise for example scale (frequency of revision and number of time series revised), direction and magnitude of revisions. ### Findings from related serviceability and revision policy assessments - Periodicity and timeliness - Central bank and ODCs data are disseminated on a monthly basis, consistent with the recommendations of the GDDS. - The monthly data on the central bank and ODCs are disseminated within 45 days after the end of the reference month, consistent with the recommendations of the GDDS. - Consistency and crosschecking - The monetary statistics presented in the sectoral balance sheets of the CBO and commercial banks are internally consistent. - The ERSD has developed a macro program to automatically produce crosschecking tables across various banking returns. - Positions between banks and the CBO reported in banking returns RD1 to RD3 are crosschecked with the CBO balance sheet; when inconsistencies occur, commercial banks are asked to explain and, if necessary, make corrections. - Consistent time series are available for monetary statistics for about 10 years; major aggregates including money supply figures are available back to January 1976 on a monthly basis. - Historical series were not reconstructed following introduction of the new banking returns in September 2009, although the breaks in series are explained in footnotes. - Revision policy and practice - The CBO has made improvements in posting the revision policy for monetary statistics on the CBO website. - The revision cycle for monetary statistics is predetermined and occurs after the financial-year statements are audited. - The ERSD published the revised December data for monetary statistics in April. - The provisional and revised data for December are clearly identified by footnotes in the CBO’s Monthly Statistical Bulletin. - Monetary data are considered final when audited. Unaudited, but disseminated data are marked as provisional and identified by footnotes when revised. - The mission encouraged the ERSD to monitor and ensure that the IRD promptly submits the revised December data to the IMF when the revised data are available. - The CBO website provides information on revision policy for monetary statistics. The practice of revisions for monetary statistics follows a predictable pattern (e.g., mainly for December data) of which users of monetary statistics are informed. - However, there are no studies and analyses carried out routinely on the revisions to monetary data. ### Specific recommendations related to revision studies and related practices - Conduct formal revision studies for monetary statistics to assess the differences between initial (provisional) data and revised/final data over a given period of time. The studies should include: - scale (frequency of revision and number of time series revised); - direction of revisions; - magnitude of revisions. - Monitor and ensure that the IRD promptly submits revised December data to the IMF when the revised data are available. - Announce advance notice to users (public) when major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques are envisaged (linked to transparency shortcoming noted under 1.2). - As part of improving consistency and accessibility (complements to revision work): - Improve sectorization and classification of financial instruments in published statistical bulletins to follow MFSM and MFSCG recommendations (examples highlighted under 5.1.1). - Introduce additional sectoral breakdowns in the Commercial Banks Combined Balance Sheet (e.g., sectoral breakdowns for “Credit to Private Sector”, “Securities Other Domestic”, and “Private Sector Deposits”). - Publish longer time series for monetary statistics on the CBO website in a format that is easy to use by users; ERSD is implementing a plan to provide data users with historical time series data on the CBO website by 2016. ### Related administrative and documentation notes relevant to revision analysis - The CBO issued circulars to ensure proper classification of government and public sector accounts: - CBO Circular Ref No. 2000/1816 dated June 13, 2000: requesting banks not to allow government agencies to open accounts without permission from the MOF. - CBO/RD/20001/227 date May 8, 2001: to banks to remove all school accounts, clubs and welfare shops accounts from the central government accounts and report them under private sector. - Metadata and documentation - The GDDS metadata posted on the IMF’s DSBB was updated on September 28, 2011, and provides comprehensive details on financial sectors statistics. The ERSD updates the GDDS metadata when changes in methodology occur. - The CBO website has methodological notes (e.g., “explanatory notes to statistical tables” and “national definition of money”), but hard copy publications do not include such notes. *Source: _cr15159 - 3.5 Revision studies* ### 0.1 Legal and institutional environment ### 0.1 Legal and institutional environment ### Legal mandate and institutional responsibilities - Compilation and dissemination of external sector statistics (ESS) are guided by: - Article 30 (b) “Residual Functions” of the Banking Law (Royal Decree No. 114/ 2000 amended by Royal Decree No. 69/2012), which states that the CBO can carry out all other operations that are usually undertaken by central banks, which are not inconsistent with the exercise of its powers and responsibilities under this Law or under any other applicable law of the Sultanate of Oman. - The Statistical Law (Royal Decree No 29/2001), Articles 2 and 4, and subsequent Royal Decrees No. 31/2012 and No. 40/2014 impacting the National Center for Statistics and Information (NCSI) and the Statistical Advisory Committee (SAC). - Within the CBO, the Balance of Payments Section (BOPS) of the ERSD is responsible for compiling balance of payments (BOP) and international investment position (IIP) statistics. - Working arrangements are consistent with this informal assignment, but the legal mandates do not prescribe specific ESS data compilation and dissemination responsibilities. - The Statistical Law is undergoing revision following issuance of Royal Decrees No. 40/2014 and No. 31/2012; the mission encourages authorities to strengthen the legal mandate for production and dissemination of all segments of the ESS. ### Data sharing and coordination among data-producing agencies - Data sources for BOP compilation include surveys (e.g., foreign investment survey), administrative data (e.g., international travelers, banking sector), and other statistics (e.g., foreign trade). - Data-producing agencies involved: - MOF - Directorate General of Customs - NCSI - Ministry of Oil and Gas - MOCI - Ministry of Health - Ministry of Awqaf and Islamic Affairs - Current arrangements: - Informal working arrangements (meetings, e-mails, phone calls) and a technical interagency expert group advising SAC promote cooperation and data sharing. - No service level agreement or memorandum of understanding ensures timely flow of information on changing terms and conditions of administrative and statistical data production. - No legal mechanism to secure coordination among data producing agencies. - Identified data issues: - Inefficient legal background complicates monitoring of international methodology application in source data for ESS. - Example: adjustments to trade statistics related to treatment of free zone trade in the Unified Customs Regulation (Law) of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf were not performed in merchandise trade and BOP data due to insufficient information on data contents. - Trade data are mainly obtained by CBO in published forms with limited exchanges to explain data needs, adversely affecting efficiency of implementing the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics (BPM6). - Statutory note: Article 4 of the Statistical Law establishes that government units are required to provide the Directorate General (now NCSI) with copies of the data they compile. ### Confidentiality and use of individual reporters’ data - Legal protections: - Banking Law (Articles 24 and 70). - Statistical Law (Article 8): all individual data concerning any statistics or census are confidential; prohibited to publish such data unless in aggregate form; not allowed to disclose to any individual or public organization without consent; not allowed to use such data for non-statistical purposes; forbidden to use any individual statistical data to create any financial burden, as evidence of a crime, or as a basis for legal measures. - Notification and safeguards: - Reporters are notified about confidentiality regulations; survey covers state CBO guarantees confidentiality and that purpose is to collect information for BOP statistics. - Access restricted to staff who require information for performance of statistical duties. - Electronic and hardcopy access control: each concerned ERSD staff member has access to individual banks’ data; each workstation password protected per CBO Code of Ethics article 1.15. - Special aggregation rules applied to prevent residual disclosure in CBO BOP publications and in NCSI publication of survey results (e.g., FDI survey). - Penalties for disclosure: - Statistical Law (Article 10): violations to confidentiality shall be sentenced for a maximum period of imprisonment for six months or a fine not exceeding five hundreds Omani Rials (i.e., around US$1,300) or both punishments. - CBO Staff Regulation (Section 34) requires signing a declaration of confidentiality at appointment, enforces sanctions and states staff would be subject to prosecution under relevant Laws and/or disciplinary action as provided under Section nine of the Staff Regulations. - Reportedly, no cases of prosecution have occurred. - Data destruction and storage: confidentiality appropriately guarded during storage and destruction of records. ### Statistical reporting, compliance, and measures to encourage response - Banking Law provisions supporting reporting: - Article 72 facilitates statistical reporting for banks and empowers CBO to establish regulations regarding accounting and reporting procedures for submissions under Article 72. - Article 14(b) gives CBO the right to examine accounts, books, records and other affairs of any bank licensed or seeking a license. - Article 74: licensed bank which fails to cooperate in any examination by the Central Bank or to submit reports required under this Law shall be subject to suspension or withdrawal of its license or such other sanctions as may be appropriate pursuant to Article 14(g) and 83. - Statistical Law sanctions for nonfinancial reporters: - Articles 6 and 10: any person who refuses to provide required data or knowingly provides incorrect data shall be punishable with a fine not exceeding three hundred Omani Rials. - Failure to provide data within the specified date is treated as refusal unless delay is shown to be excusable. - Practical issues: - Statistical function of CBO is not clearly articulated in legal documents; provisions proved insufficient, evidenced by low response rate to the CBO quarterly FDI survey. - Measures to encourage response: - CBO minimizes response burden when designing new surveys. - CBO avoids overburdening banks on data reporting. - Surveys include contact name and telephone number for assistance. - Recommendations (from source): - Strengthen legal mandate of CBO to compile ESS and secure inter-agency cooperation. - Reinforce reporting from the nonfinancial corporations. ### 0.2 Resources ### Staff, facilities, computing resources, and financing - Human resources: - Out of 22 staff of the ERSD, six staff are assigned for compilation of the ESS. - Effectively, in addition to the Economist in charge of the BOPS, there are currently three staff members dedicated full-time to ESS issues, which include collecting source data, compilation of BOP and IIP, analysis, dissemination of data and metadata, and forecast. - Years of experience within the BOPS are 25 years. - Staff turnover is manageable. - Most professionals have a bachelor or master degree; new staff recruited on competitive basis. - Training: in-house and external (domestic and abroad), including balance of payments courses and regional training. - IT and physical resources: - IT resources are adequate; emergency back-up system: ITD backs up the database weekly on a network server; the department backs up monthly on compact disks. - Necessary software for compiling ESS statistics provided by ITD upon request. - Physical facilities and other resources adequate. - Financial resources and budgeting: - Department submits annual budget to CBO’s Budget Committee; Committee reviews and recommends to Executive President; Board of Governors discusses and approves budget. - Recommendation: - Increase the number of staff dedicated to the compilation of ESS to assure the smooth migration to BPM6 and development of external position data. ### Measures to ensure efficient use of resources - Performance management: - Annual performance review process (APR) improved; key performance indicators (KPI) applied quarterly. - Annual performance review by Head of Section uses scale from 1 to 5; Senior Manager reviews appraisal; appraisal goes to Annual Increment Review Committee for salary increase and promotion. - APR outcomes inform Talent Management initiative: developmental gaps, training needs, administrative actions. - Staff development incentives: - Staff participate in developing annual work plan. - Incentives for staff development, training and research activity, including special budget for scholarship program. - New initiatives for knowledge exchange: knowledge sharing portal, formal reporting of training outcomes, encouraging informal staff discussions. - Process review: - CBO undergoing comprehensive review of internal processes to develop and implement additional measures to enhance efficiency starting from 2015. ### 0.3 Relevance ### Monitoring relevance and user needs - Ongoing monitoring of market developments and identification of gaps via press monitoring and informal contacts with data-producing agencies. - Seminars with data users to review usefulness of existing statistics and identify emerging data requirements. - ERSD regularly conducts seminars targeted for principal data users, including academia (Sultan Qaboos University, College of Banking and Financial Studies (CBFS), and other colleges). - Feedback from seminars is used to monitor usability of compiled statistics. - Updates to international standards and international organizations’ needs are monitored and addressed. - Example: ERSD Work plan for 2013–15 contains specific actions toward BPM6 implementation. ### 0.4 Other quality management ### Focus on quality - CBO vision emphasizes providing timely statistics without compromising quality. - Managers aware of trade-offs between accuracy and timeliness; accuracy/reliability given priority when trade-offs occur. - Staff training includes quality awareness; quality monitoring and review practices implemented for ongoing activities. - External evaluation sought (e.g., evaluation of methodologies and ESS compilation practices) and efforts to address recommendations of the 2004 ROSC. ### Monitoring quality during planning and implementation - Systematic monitoring and review measures exist for informing managers on quality achieved for ongoing activities (e.g., surveys’ response rates and timeliness evaluations). - ERSD work program and yearly action plan provide mechanisms to monitor statistical program quality. ### 1. Assurances of integrity ### Institutional integrity - Legal basis for institutional independence: - Banking Law (Article 6 and Article 8(one)) entrusts management of the Central Bank to the Board of Governors with full authority for management and operations. - CBO Code of Ethics: - Employees to develop professional competence and apply professional skill, judgment, care and due diligence with honesty and integrity (Sections 12, 13). - Recruitment and promotion based on aptitude/expertise in statistics. - Training and professionalism: - Formal training includes balance of payments course in Washington, D.C., regional courses at Arab Monetary Fund and GCC institutions, and on-the-job training by GCC-STAT and foreign experts. - CBO promotes culture of professionalism and analytical work (Al Markazi publication). - NCSI autonomy: - Royal Decree No. 31/2012 established NCSI as autonomous; Article 4 states Board of Directors responsible for organizing and conducting affairs with necessary authority; NCSI compiles major source data for ESS such as external trade and foreign investments. ### Choices of sources, techniques, and dissemination - Choices of source data, methodologies, and statistical techniques are based on measurement objectives and data requirements. - Decisions about dissemination (timing, media, and other aspects) are based solely on statistical considerations. - Consideration is being given to possible introduction of the International Transactions Reporting System (ITRS) to supplement and cross-check data sources. ### Right to comment on erroneous interpretation and misuse - CBO disseminates elaborated analytical notes to mitigate misinterpretation. - ESRD monitors press writings on balance of payments issues and engages with parties when misrepresentations are found; may arrange meetings with the Executive President if necessary. *Source: _cr15159 - 0.1 Legal and institutional environment* ### 1.2 Transparency ### 1.2 Transparency ### Availability of terms and metadata - The terms and conditions under which statistics are collected, processed, and disseminated are available to the public. - Public availability of the Banking Law and the Statistical Law fosters transparency. - Information on the terms and conditions under which the statistical series are compiled and disseminated is available on the country’s GDDS page on the IMF’s DSBB website with the link on the CBO website. - Tradition has been to make metadata available upon request; balance of payments staff are available to respond to any inquiry and provide prompt and comprehensive advice. - No published compilation manual of balance of payments discusses the country-specific systems and procedures that underpin the compilation process in Sultanate of Oman (although an internal handbook on compilation procedures exists for CBO staff). ### Internal governmental access prior to release - Data compiled and disseminated by the CBO are sometimes made available to the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of National Economy, and any other Ministries before dissemination to the public. - The prior access is acknowledged on the DSBB website with the link from the CBO website. ### Identification of products - Data released to the public are clearly identified as the product of specific data-producing agency. - The CBO requests attribution when its statistics are used or reproduced. - CBO data published in the periodical NCSI publications and in the NCSI Statistical Yearbook are clearly identified as CBO product. ### Advance notice of major changes - The CBO has introduced practice to provide formal advance notice before undertaking any major changes in methodology, source data, or statistical techniques. - Example: the 2013 CBO Annual Report notifies users that “based on improved reporting of information through the annual survey, data in respect of foreign direct investment, other investment, and investment income flows have been revised for past years” and that “since the coverage of the survey increases every year, with new respondents reporting data for past few years as well, this annual revision process may continue till the survey becomes comprehensive with full coverage.” Recommendation - Ensure that users are informed in advance of forthcoming changes pertaining to introduction of the BPM6. --- ### 1.3 Ethical standards ### Staff behavior guidelines - The CBO has prepared a clear and comprehensive set of ethical standards outlined in the CBO Code of Ethics, followed by “CBO Staff Regulations.” Both regulations are available to CBO staff. - Section 3-7 of Staff Regulation deals with conflict of interest; section 3-5-1 states that employees are forbidden from engaging in any political activity. - Staff are made aware of the ethical standards at the time of hiring and are reminded of these standards periodically by management. - Any conflicts are resolved via the CBO Grievances Committee. --- ### 2. Methodological soundness ### 2.1 Concepts and definitions - The overall conceptual framework and the methodology for the compilation of balance of payments statistics have broadly conformed with guidelines outlined in the Balance of Payments Manual, fifth edition (BPM5), which was implemented in 2000. - A revised data series is available from 1996. - Current, capital, and financial transactions are separately identified, with the latter distinguishing those in assets and in liabilities. - Compilers are working on the draft conversion tables into BPM6 presentation that are planned to be submitted to IMF in due course. - Concepts and definitions used to compile the balance of payments statistics broadly conform with guidelines outlined in the BPM5. - Definition of economic territory and residency principle in general is followed with the exception of the treatment of free zones. Customs records under the Unified Customs Regulation “Law” of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) States imply goods are recorded at the customs border between the free zone and the rest of economic territory of Oman (Articles 2(32); 78–80), which, without adjustments based on supplementary collection, leads to: - (i) exports of goods via free zone would include goods consumed in free zone; - (ii) exports of goods would excludes exports of goods produced in free zones; and goods imported and re-exported by the free zone; - (iii) imports of goods via free zone would include also goods produced by free zone and exclude goods imported and consumed within free zone. - In all other cases, resident institutional units are defined in broad conformity with the BPM6. - Balance of payments transactions are defined according to BPM5 guidelines—this includes presenting FDI following the directional principle and applying the 10 percent ownership rule. - To comply with BPM6 requirements, the FDI data should be presented on a gross assets and liabilities basis in both BOP and IIP statistics; revisions are also to be applied to definition of goods for processing and repair of goods. - Definition used in borderline cases between services and direct investment for construction work and exploration of natural resources should be reviewed. Recommendation - Establish special data collection and develop estimates for recording transactions of special economic zones to ensure that proper definition is applied for the economic territory of the Sultanate of Oman in the ESS compilation program. ### 2.2 Scope - The scope of the balance of payments is broadly consistent with the guidelines outlined in the BPM5. Geographic Coverage - The balance of payments data cover the whole territory of Sultanate of Oman, with the exception of custom free zones, and the embassies and consulates abroad. Unit Coverage - Basically, all resident institutional units engaged in transactions with nonresidents are covered; coverage of household sector is defined by limitations in data collection. Transaction Coverage: recent improvements and remaining exclusions - Improvements: collection of direct investment abroad; setting-up the collection of resident-nonresident transactions of the other financial institutions (e.g., pension funds); collecting data and making estimates for transactions of foreign embassies in the Sultanate of Oman and Omani embassies abroad; portfolio investment assets; and operational lease. - Transactions not included in scope: - (i) international transactions of the sea ports authorities; - (ii) goods for processing, which are treated as temporary admission (Article 90 of the Customs Law) are, for the most part, not included in the merchandise trade and balance of payments statistics; - (iii) maintenance and repair of machinery and equipments treated as temporary admission (Article 90 of the Customs Law) and thus are not included in the merchandise trade and balance of payments statistics; - (iv) Export of transport services by land and sea transport, although believed to be insignificant; - (v) Other transport services performed by sea ports and airport (e.g., loading/unloading of cargos); - (vi) FISIM are not estimated; - (vii) no data for postal services is available; - (viii) gaps in income receivables transactions including interest for the private nonbank sector; - (ix) nonfinancial private sector cross-border transactions are partially included; - (x) reinvested earnings are not included in the FDI transactions; - (xi) financial derivatives transactions undertaken by banks and foreign investment enterprises; - (xii) SDR allocation. ### 2.3 Classification/sectorization - Classification and sectorization systems are generally consistent with internationally accepted standards. - Current account includes goods; services; income (primary income in BPM6) comprising compensation of employees and investment income; and current transfers (secondary income in BPM6). - The capital account is presented together with the financial account and the aggregated balance is disseminated. Following BPM6 recommendations, the capital and financial accounts should be presented separately and their balances should not be aggregated. - Institutional units are classified and attributed to the relevant sector. - Following 2004 ROSC recommendations, freight insurance for import of goods is now classified under imports of insurance services; and nonresident’s contribution to bank’s capital are split into direct and portfolio investments. - Exceptions and shortcomings in classification: - Goods are not broken down into the five categories recommended by BPM5 (general merchandise, goods for processing, repairs on goods, goods procured in ports by carriers, and monetary gold). - Classification of services lacks details prescribed by the BPM6. Government, construction, and several other services components are blended together with other business services. - Interest income on bank’s assets and liabilities is not classified in income component but included together with instrument. This treatment is also extended on international reserve assets. - Direct non-life insurance premiums and claims as well as reinsurance premiums and claims are not classified under current transfers, but under services. - Apart from FDI transactions, the total changes in commercial banks’ claims and liabilities with nonresidents are classified under other investments. Transactions in securities (debt securities assets and liabilities, and equity assets) should be reclassified to portfolio investment. In addition, for equity assets, the direct investment relationship should be further investigated. - Borrowing and lending between direct investors and direct investment enterprises are not classified under the FDI. - More detailed information should be obtained on the existing production sharing agreements to ensure proper classification of the FDI transitions and positions. - External transactions of the sovereign wealth fund (Special General Reserve Fund (SGRF) recently merged with Contingency Fund of the Government) are recorded as reserve assets in the balance of payments of Oman. To be in line with the definition of reserve assets in the BPM6 and the International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity: Guidelines for a Data Template, the following conditions need to be met for these transactions to be considered reserve assets: - (1) they are foreign currency claims on nonresidents, - (2) they meet the criteria of liquidity or marketability, and - (3) they are under the effective control of and readily available to the monetary authorities to meet a balance of payments need. - If the above conditions are not met, the transactions need to be recorded under portfolio or other investment of the government sector as appropriate. - In reporting reserves position for the IFS, the CBO includes only foreign assets of the central bank and does not include government funds held abroad. The classification of stocks in the forthcoming IIP will need to be consistent with the flows. - There is no maturity attribution of transactions in the other investment component. - Sectorization is broadly consistent with the BPM5; however, in the BPM6, other sectors should be further disaggregated into other financial corporations and nonfinancial corporations, households, and NPISHs. Recommendations - Improve classification of transactions, including reclassification of transactions of the sovereign wealth funds to government assets and foreign direct investments. - Implement BPM6 sectorization and fine-tune presentation of accounts. ### 2.4 Basis for recording 2.4.1 Valuation and currencies - Oman’s balance of payments is expressed in millions of Omani Rials. - The market price valuation procedure has been recently improved; valuation adjustments to portfolio investments are performed using stock exchange indices. - To the extent possible, market prices are used to value all flows—this includes monetary gold and financial instruments generally traded on a regular market. - Nontradable financial instruments, such as loans, are valued at nominal value. - Where transaction estimates are derived from stock data (banking sector transactions, reserves), the value of the transaction excludes valuation and other changes. - Transactions recorded in other currencies are converted into Omani Rials using average market exchange rates at the time of the transaction. - End-of-period exchange rates are used for conversion when flows are derived from stock data (reserves). Due to lack of position data in original currencies, only rough adjustments for exchange rate changes are made. Therefore, these transactions may include exchange rate changes. - Foreign trade transactions are recorded on an f.o.b. basis. Recommendation - Set up a workbook with the currency composition of selected foreign currency denominated financial assets and liabilities to exclude exchange rate changes when transactions are estimated from positions. 2.4.2 Recording basis - Recording is done on an accrual basis in general: change of ownership is the principle governing the recognition of transactions and their time of recording. - Merchandise trade statistics are recorded largely according to the time of clearance by customs. - For financial instruments bearing interest, the accrual of interest is recorded for the banking sector. - For government and public corporations, interest is recorded on a cash basis. No adjustments are made to approximate accrual. 2.4.3 Grossing/netting - Grossing/netting procedures are broadly consistent with BPM5. - Current and capital account transactions are recorded on a gross basis. - Financial account transactions are recorded in line with BPM6 on a net basis, separately for the individual asset and liability components. --- ### 3. Accuracy and reliability ### 3.1 Source data 3.1.1 Coverage and data collection program - The collection program for compiling balance of payments statistics has been improved to augment administrative data sources with more comprehensive specialized survey that would eventually allow compiling sound quarterly balance of payments data. - Existing core sources provide reasonable though insufficient coverage to compile comprehensive balance of payments statistics. - Need to expand data sources, including improving coverage of existing surveys, expanding data collection for the stocks statistics including transactions of private sector, possible introduction of the International Transactions Reporting System to improve coverage of selected balance of payments components, setting up the comprehensive data collection for international trade in services and exercising wider use of administrative source data. - Public and private oil sector is presently included; however, improvements in the collection of transactions for this industry and understanding the economic nature of the implementation of existing production sharing agreements would allow for better measurement and classification of these transactions. Surveys / Direct Reporting (not exhaustive) - (i) Customs data. General merchandise data are collected based on the Unified Customs Regulation “Law” of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) States. Recently Directorate General of Customs has computerized the customs procedures, which allowed substantially improving the statistical system of foreign trade. Data are now provided to CBO in user-friendly format on a CD ROM. The CD contains of information on the quantity and value of the imported and exported goods and their geographical distribution. - (ii) MFS data. MFS data provided in database format with appropriate level of details. MFS is compiled in the same CBO department and follow international standards. - (iii) Annual foreign investments survey conducted by NCSI. The framework includes all establishments with foreign capital in public and private sector, but do not include government direct investment or pension fund. - (iv) Direct report from pension fund, which includes balance sheets and income statement. - (v) Quarterly foreign investments survey conducted by CBO, which contains transactions and stocks data on foreign investments and foreign investment income. - (vi) Ad hoc survey on per capita expenditure of travelers undertaken by the Directorate of Tourism. - (vii) Direct report from airline company, which includes freight receipts and other transportation services. - (viii) Direct reporting of exports of liquefied natural gas from Oman LNG. - (ix) Data from foreign embassies in Oman. - (x) monthly reports from banks and exchange offices providing transactions on workers’ remittances. Administrative data sources - (i) Data on exports of crude oil and refined oil from the Ministry of Oil and Gas and the MOF. - (ii) Ministry of Foreign Affairs data on the oversees properties of Omani government. - (iii) Data from the MOF on sovereign wealth funds. - (iv) Comprehensive lists of enterprises from the Secretary General for Taxation and the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. - (v) Balance sheet data are obtained from banks in terms and conditions outlined in CBO Circular BM 1058 from September 14, 2009 and are in conformity with MFS standards. - (vi) Data on number of Omani students abroad and average student expenditure from the Ministry of High Education. - (vii) The number and average expenditure for Omanis going abroad for medical treatment from the Ministry of Health. - (viii) The number of Omanis going on pilgrimage from the Ministry of Endowment and religion affairs. - (ix) Number of expatriates engaged in employment in Oman and their average salary is received from the Ministry of Manpower and Public Authorities of Social Insurance. - (x) Annual data from insurance companies from Capital Market Authorities. - (xi) Data on the net inflow of funds into the securities market from MSM Authorities. - Data collection program is sufficiently open and flexible to provide for new developments in sources. - Data sources are under constant improvement, including revisions of estimations methods and data adjustments, to reflect the continually changing economic situation. - Gaps in terms of detail and coverage are known and kept under review. Where possible, adjustments are made (for example, including an adjustment in imports for Ministry of Defense). - Staff monitors the financial press and research papers for information on international transactions and transactions that need to be taken into account in the balance of payments compilation system. - Staff also monitors international standards, guidelines, and practices for changes that need to be taken into account. Recommendations - Obtain access to the income statement data and annual financial reports of major direct investment enterprises to supplement quarterly FDI collection and handle non-response. - Consider implementation of ITRS to enhance collection. 3.1.2 Approximation to standards - CBO staff ensure consistency with the requirements of the BPM5 through coordination/ discussions with the primary source organizations. - When the CBO conducts surveys (such as the foreign investment survey), it brings definitions and concepts to the notice of survey participants. - CBO staff often request primary source organizations to modify their systems and compile additional information (as in the case of the fivefold classification of merchandise trade data). - Specific procedures have been developed by the CBO to adjust data from various sources to improve coverage, classification, and valuation. Instructions to the report forms are consistent with BPM5 concepts and provide for detailed classification of transactions. 3.1.3 Timeliness - Overall, the source data for compiling the monthly balance of payments financial transactions are timely. - All primary administrative sources make data available to the CBO on time. - Survey respondents are made aware of the deadlines set for reporting on the cover of the questionnaires. The CBO rigorously follows up to ensure the timely receipt of respondents’ data. - To date, the survey frame has been quite small, and the CBO contacts the respondents directly. - Timeliness of merchandise trade data does not support quarterly data collection. - Benchmark collection for compensation of employees’ component is outdated. *Source: _cr15159 - 1.2 Transparency* ### 3.2 Assessment of source data ### _cr15159 - 3.2 Assessment of source data ### 3.2 Assessment of source data — coverage and verification - Source data—including censuses, sample surveys, and administrative records—are routinely assessed for coverage, sample error, response error, and nonsampling error; the results of the assessments are monitored and made available to guide statistical processes. - The CBO has routinely assessed the accuracy of the data from surveys. - For primary administrative data sources, the CBO seeks clarifications on the estimates when necessary and cross-checks specific datasets such as important estimates for oil exports. - The quantity and average price are obtained from the Ministry of Oil and Gas and compared with the value of oil exports at the MOF. - Estimates for worker remittances based on records from banks and exchange offices are cross-checked with administrative data. - Time-series and unit value analyses are performed on merchandise trade data. ### 3.3 Statistical techniques — compilation and adjustments - Data compilation employs sound statistical techniques to deal with data sources; compilation procedures minimize processing errors due to coding, editing, and tabulation errors. - Editing procedures include manual or computerized checks of logical consistency, including consistency with data from the previous year, and completeness of the reports. - Corrections to individual reports are made only when confirmed with the respondent. - Data undergo consistency checks before inclusion into main compilation frame. - Other statistical procedures (data adjustments and transformations, statistical analysis) employ sound statistical techniques, but are limited in scope to align source data with balance of payments requirements. - A number of adjustments are made to merchandise trade statistics compiled on a customs clearance basis. - The most important adjustment relates to recording import data f.o.b.; the factor has been 10.5 percent (9.5 percent for freight and 1 percent for insurance) for a considerable period and this benchmark needs to be reviewed. - Coverage adjustments are performed based on administrative data. - Travel payments estimation: techniques are generally sound with one exception — estimates for per capita expenditure of students do not include tuition. - Compensation of employees credits: - Entries represent earnings of Omani individuals who reside in border areas vis-à-vis the UAE and travel daily or frequently for employment. - Estimates are based on a benchmark study done almost two decades ago on the number of individuals, their average earnings, and an assumption about the proportion of income spent on personal consumption abroad. - At present, a constant of 15 million Omani Rials has been shown under the item. - Although the methodology may be acceptable, there is an urgent need to update the above estimate. - Insurance services compilation needs revision: - Gross premiums and claims on insurance are wrongly included in insurance services. - There is no proper treatment for cross-border reinsurance services data. - The BPM6 changes are yet to be implemented. - No investment income of insurance companies is reported to calculate premium supplements. ### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs - Intermediate results are validated against other information where applicable. - To assess plausibility of workers’ remittances estimates, the CBO collects quarterly information from banks and moneychangers to cross-check cash transfers affected by expatriates; results confirm the general order of magnitude under the current methodology. - The CBO verifies FDI estimates with records of the General Secretariat of Taxation and the MOCI; financial press is used to verify high-value transactions when appropriate. - Statistical discrepancies in intermediate data are assessed and investigated. - The CBO cross-checks behavior of series with related series/indicators when possible. - The CBO uses available stock data to verify transactions data—for example, average yield and average stock to cross-check investment income receipts; data on external debt to cross-check financial flows; stocks for the banking sector to cross-check banking transactions; reserve assets derived from stock data (allowing for valuation changes). - Statistical discrepancies and other potential indicators of problems are investigated. - Staff monitor developments in the errors and omissions item and seek to understand them by cross-checking between entries in the current, capital, and financial account when possible, although this is not a “closed” compilation system. - A direction of trade matrix for GCC countries is used to cross-check trade data with this region. - At present external public debt transactions are received from the MOF, and there is no estimate for external private debt. - Further cross-checks can be done with IMF Direction of Trade Statistics, Joint BIS-IMF-OECD-World Bank statistics on external debt, the BIS locational international banking statistics, partner country data from CDIS, or derived portfolio liabilities from CPIS. ### 3.5 Revision studies - Revisions can take place when a new data source, such as a survey, is introduced. - Revisions of BOP data are studied and used internally to inform statistical processes, but formal studies are not conducted. - Recommendation: - Conduct formal revisions study. *Source: _cr15159 - 3.2 Assessment of source data* ### 4 Serviceability #### 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness - Periodicity: - Balance of payments statistics are disseminated annually, which adheres to the GDDS recommendations. - GDDS encourages compilation and dissemination of quarterly balance of payments aggregates. - The CBO currently compiles quarterly balance of payments estimates for internal purposes (an input to GDP). - Some components, such as estimates for services from annual surveys, are not available on a quarterly basis at this time. - The CBO has recently established quarterly FDI sample survey as a basis for compilation of IIP, which is still at developmental stage. - Annual IIP data are not yet disseminated. - Timeliness: - Annual balance of payments statistics are disseminated within six months after the reference period, which adheres to the GDDS recommendations. - International Investment Position data are not disseminated (GDDS timeliness – 6–9 months). #### 4.2 Consistency - Internal consistency: - The ESS compilation program ensures internal data consistency by applying the same concepts, definitions, and classifications for quarterly and annual BOP and IIP statistics. - The balance of payments statistics are internally consistent. - The errors and omissions over the past three years did not exceed one percent of GDP, however with the persistent negative sign, which indicates bias on one or more components. - The CBO monitors magnitude and sign of net errors and omissions and seeks causes of statistical discrepancies. - Recommendation: - During the IIP developmental stage, establish a regular procedure to cross-check the consistency between each component of the income account and the corresponding position data. - Temporal consistency: - The balance of payments is consistent over time. - A five-year consistent time series are published. - Longer consistent time series (from 1996) are available upon request. - Break in series is in 1996, with data for 1980 – 1995 available on the BPM4 format. - Occasionally, when major methodological changes are introduced historical time series are reconstructed and changes are explained in CBO’s Annual Report commentary. - Consistency with other datasets: - BOP trade in goods data are reconcilable with international merchandise trade data. - A coverage adjustment is made to imports in respect of defense goods on the basis of data obtained from the Ministry of Defense. - Imports in the BOP are converted from a c.i.f. basis to an f.o.b. basis; differences are noted in analytical tables in CBO’s Annual Report. - BOP statistics are largely consistent with national accounts statistics: - Published net lending and borrowing in national accounts was taken directly from BOP statistics, as a sum of financial and capital accounts. - During the mission net lending and borrowing was derived directly from national accounts aggregates and reconciled with BOP financial account with the following outcome: - (i) net lending and borrowing is reconcilable; - (ii) net primary income from abroad is consistent providing a coherent measure of gross national income; - (iii) net current transfers from abroad are roughly consistent affecting measure of gross national disposable income (minor discrepancies were caused by additional adjustments to data exercised in national accounts but not in balance of payments compilation—CBO and NCSI will need to agree on application of common methodology); - (iv) data on external trade have discrepancies due to netting of re-export transactions in national accounts compilation (however, gross recoding is exercised in supply-and-use tables). - Banking sector financial account transactions in BOP are derived from balance sheets of depository corporations, therefore transactions data are generally consistent with monetary statistics. - Classification issues noted in quality indicator 2.3.2 cause relatively minor discrepancies at the instrument level, explainable and not affecting total financial account. - Foreign assets of the central bank in the monetary and financial statistics and reserve transactions are reconcilable. - Recommendation: - Establish routine practice on reconciling BOP and IIP statistics with other macroeconomic data sets (monetary statistics, national accounts, and government finance statistics). #### 4.3 Revision policy and practice - Revisions and updates follow a regular and transparent schedule. - Following recommendation of 2004 ROSC mission, the revision policy and practice has been refined. - In practice, data for a new year are preliminary and subject to revisions during the following year. - When there is a major change in methodology or source data (the introduction of surveys) revisions to historical time-series are conducted as appropriate and an explanation is included in the CBO’s Annual Report. - If administrative source data are revised (such as revisions to annual international trade data), the revised data are incorporated in the estimates. - Information on GDDS website cross-referenced on CBO web-site states that revisions are held as appropriate. - Identification of revised data: - Revised BOP data are clearly identified. - Normally, new year data published in Annual Report are preliminary. - Revised data are disseminated with the same level of detail as preliminary data. - Studies on revisions: - Formal studies and analyses have not been carried out routinely on revisions to the BOP data. - Implicit discussions on reasons for any revision are done internally. - Reasons for major revisions resulting from a change in methodology or source data are discussed in commentary accompanying data releases. - Any inquiries on revised data are handled individually. ### 5 Accessibility #### 5.1 Data accessibility - Presentation and dissemination: - Annual BOP statistics are disseminated in two CBO publications "Quarterly Statistical Bulletin" (in Arabic and English) with annual data and in Annual Report (in Arabic and English). - Both publications are available in hard copy and on CBO website http://www.cbo-oman.org/. - BOP statistics are generally disseminated according to standard aggregated components of the BPM5 and with five-year historical time series. - CBO’s Annual Report contains charts, tables, and analytical note on current-period developments. - Quarterly BOP data are not published. Annual IIP data are not published. - "Quarterly Statistical Bulletin" contains annual five-year series of the BOP and annual and quarterly series of external trade with additional commodity and geographical detail. - There is no separate publication on the balance of payments of the Sultanate of Oman. - Additional publications and dissemination improvements: - Analyses of external sector developments are given in CBO bi-annual Mid-year Review of Omani Economy (in Arabic and English) and occasional discussion papers (example cited in source). - Recent computerization of customs procedures allowed substantial improvement in dissemination of external trade statistics, now published on a CD ROM with commodity detail at HS 8 digits level and additional information on quantity. - Foreign Investment publication of NCSI contains detailed five year annual series on direct, portfolio and other investments by activity and geographic detail; publication available in hard copy (in Arabic and English) and on NCSI website (URL cited in source). - BOP statistics are sent to the IMF in BPM5 format using the Integrated Correspondence System (ICS), included in the IMF database and published in the IMF IFS and IMF BOPSY. - To further improve access, presentation, and interpretation of data, the CBO is encouraged to consider separate publication of annual BOP data, and to commence dissemination of quarterly BOP. - Formats and release schedule: - BOP statistics are disseminated in hard copy and available on the CBO website in PDF format. - At present, no electronic database is maintained for users. - The CBO is currently developing an online database which will contain different statistics and allow easy retrieval in user-friendly format; the CBO has plans to complete the project by 2016. - Historical time series are maintained back to 1980 (data prior to 1996 are on a BPM4 basis) and are made available upon request. - The user is informed through the IMF DSSB publication that data prior to 1996 are on a BPM4 basis. - An advance release calendar is directly accessible on the CBO website (URL cited in source). It indicates the approximate date the statistics are to be released, although there is no precise date, since it gives the “normal date of release within 6 months of the end of the reference year.” - Given that BOP data are part of a comprehensive publication which includes other CBO data series, release date may be delayed if other data are not ready or if there are printing delays. - Access equality and special requests: - Annual BOP statistics are released simultaneously to all users. - The public is informed of releases—most often through radio announcements. - Statistics not routinely disseminated are made available upon request without violating confidentiality requirements; this includes time series and some bilateral trade with GCC countries. - No custom tabulations are provided. #### 5.2 Metadata accessibility - Documentation availability: - Vehicles for accessing BOP metadata are the IMF’s DSBB website and country notes section in the BOPSY, Part 3. - These metadata (particularly the GDDS) provide adequate information about the meaning of the data and about the methodology used to collect and process. - At the time of the mission, the GDDS metadata posted on the DSBB had not been updated since September 2011. - The GDDS metadata are cross-referenced in data releases and publicized on CBO website. - No other comprehensive sources and methods document is published and updated regularly by the CBO. - There is a need to prepare comprehensive country-specific BOP metadata describing concepts, classifications, data sources, compilation methods, statistical techniques, and other relevant methodological aspects. - Recommendations: - Update and maintain current the metadata available in national publications as well as the GDDS metadata posted on the IMF’s DSBB. - Prepare comprehensive country-specific balance of payments metadata, describing concepts, classifications, data sources, compilation methods, statistical techniques, and other relevant methodological aspects. - Levels of detail: - Currently the GDDS and DSBB metadata are the only sources available to users. - No special brochure or background papers on compilation methodology are available to users. *Source: _cr15159 - 3.2 Assessment of source data* ### 5.3 Assistance to users ### 5.3 Assistance to users ### Contact points - Contact information is given on CBO website and in the CBO’s Annual Report, which includes the official release of annual balance of payments statistics. - The contact information for the balance of payments statistics comprises the name of the ERSD as the point of entry, address, telephone number, fax number, and an Internet address. - A “Feedback” box is also posted on the CBO website for comments/questions of users. - The specific reference to a contact person in charge of the balance of payments is provided on the IMF’s DSBB website. - The CBO maintains an informal register of the different queries received and staff are available to answer queries from users. - ERSD is mentioned as point of entry. ### Publications, documents, and services (including charges) - The publications are available in hard copies and through the CBO website. - The CBO website contains a list of publications. - The publications include the CBO’s Annual Report, the Quarterly Statistical Bulletin, the Monthly Statistical Bulletin, and the Al Markazi, (a bimonthly publication of research and analysis of the CBO), bi-annual publication Mid-year Review of Omani Economy, and various research papers. - Most of CBO publications are available in Arabic and English. - There is no charge for any of these products or services. ### Data Quality Assessment Framework — Summary findings relevant to assistance and accessibility - Element 5.3 Assistance to users: Assessment symbol X (Practice Observed) with comment: "ERSD is mentioned as point of entry." - Element 5.1 Data accessibility: Assessment symbol X with comments: - "Longer time-series in user-friendly database format are not available." - "There is no separate information release for balance of payments." - "No quarterly data publication." - "No IIP publication." - "Exact release date not posted." - "Preannounced timeliness of release periodically is not met." - Plans: "Consider separate balance of payments publication. Publish IIP data. Publish quarterly BOP data. Publish historical time series in user-friendly database format." - Element 5.2 Metadata accessibility: Assessment symbol X with comments: - "No methodological publication other than GDDS metadata on the DSBB, updated irregularly." - "No methodological notes accompanying released data." - Plans: "Develop and disseminate a comprehensive metadata document and update it periodically." ### Key recommendations and plans for improvement (from the Assessment) - Review existing regulations to clearly assign responsibilities for compilation and dissemination of ESS statistics to the CBO, secure inter-agency cooperation and reinforce the reporting of the nonfinancial corporations to CBO. - Increase staff resources for compiling IIP and supplementary ESS data (Reserve Template, CPIS, CDIS, quarterly external debt statistics). - Set up basis for BPM6 recording of FDI transactions, goods for processing, repair of goods; establish separate collection to properly record transactions with free zones. - Improve coverage of the balance of payments transactions, including private sector transitions and stocks, FDI, goods, and services. - Breakdown of export/imports of goods, fine-tune classification of services and financial accounts components. - Introduce ITRS, introduce survey of free economic zones, expand collection of stocks statistics; enhance collection of services; wider use of administrative source data. - Improve estimates of compensation of employees; update adjustments for basis of recording. - Formal revision studies and analyses are needed. - Consider separate balance of payments publication. Publish IIP data. Publish quarterly BOP data. Publish historical time series in user-friendly database format. - Develop and disseminate a comprehensive metadata document and update it periodically. *Source: _cr15159 - 5.3 Assistance to users (Compiling Agency: Central Bank of Oman).* ### 5.3 Assistance to users—Prompt ### 5.3 Assistance to users—Prompt ### Assistance and dissemination practices - Prompt and knowledgeable support service is available. - 5.3.1 Contact points are publicized. - 5.3.2 Publications, documents, and other services, including information on any charges, are widely available. ### Appendix IV — Oman: Users’ Survey (October–November 2014) - Survey targeted macroeconomic statistics published by the Central Bank of Oman (CBO), the Ministry of Finance (MOF) and the National Center for Statistics and Information (NCSI). - Five major datasets covered: National Accounts (NA), Consumer Prices (CPI), Government Finance Statistics (GFS), Monetary Statistics (MFS), and Balance of Payments statistics (BOP). - Questionnaires forwarded to users in media, commercial banks, embassies, private non-financial corporations, academia, the public sector and other financial entities. - Total invited: 35 users; total responses received: 23. Response rate: 66 percent. ### Overall assessment (survey summary) - Users' overall opinion of the quality of official statistics: average rating 3.7 on a 1–5 scale (5 = excellent, 1 = poor) compared to 3.6 in 2004. - Highest rated: Monetary statistics and prices. - Lowest rated: Government Finance Statistics (GFS). - Majority view: quality of Oman's statistics is the same as other countries in the region. ### Coverage and detail (user ratings and comments) - Users most satisfied with level of detail for monetary and CPI statistics; relatively less satisfied with GFS and National Accounts. - Requests for additional detail in national accounts, GFS, and BOP statistics. - Selected user comments: - Oil revenues data available only after transfers to the State General Reserve Fund (SGRF). - Inflation, rent, water and fuel are grouped together, impeding analysis of removal of oil subsidies. - Need figures on debt service to GDP ratio and similar GFS details. - Request more detail on subsidies, Government Finance and CPI data. - Desire for projections on benchmark oil prices over a 5-year horizon instead of current 1 year. - Need consistency in terminology with other countries in the region. - Absence of Quarterly Real GDP and BOP data noted. - Need improved quality in national accounts, labor market, production indices, and public finance. ### Periodicity and timeliness - Over 90 percent satisfied with compilation frequency of official statistics. - Satisfaction by dataset (frequency): CPI and monetary statistics rated highest; BOP rated lowest. - Satisfaction with timeliness considerably lower than with periodicity. - Users reported significant lags in publication of National Accounts and BOP data that prevent analysis of current economic trends. ### Accessibility and metadata - 96 percent of respondents access statistics via official websites for all sectors. - Highest accessibility ratings given to CPI and monetary statistics. - Users expressed less satisfaction with accessibility to metadata across all sectors. - Recommendations from users: - Creation of an interactive online database to select time series and frequency. - Improve clarity and availability of methodological descriptions in English as some data published only in Arabic. - More timely and consistently updated monthly statistical bulletins. ### Survey response breakdown by type of user (Table 7) - Commercial banks: Total Sent 7; Total Received 5; In Percent Received 71 - Media: Total Sent 5; Total Received 1; In Percent Received 20 - Embassies and international organizations: Total Sent 3; Total Received 2; In Percent Received 67 - Academia (researcher): Total Sent 10; Total Received 8; In Percent Received 80 - Public sector (central bank, ministries, nonfinancial corporations): Total Sent 4; Total Received 2; In Percent Received 50 - Think-tanks, consulting companies, and regulatory institutions: Total Sent 6; Total Received 5; In Percent Received 83 - Total: Total Sent 35; Total Received 23; In Percent Received 66 ### Key questionnaire results (percentages from Table 8) - Which official statistics do you use regularly? - National accounts (NA): 74 - Prices: 91 - Government finance statistics (GFS): 91 - Monetary statistics (MFS): 83 - Balance of payments (BOP): 61 - Other: Production indices 43; Labor market 65; Merchandise trade 57; International reserves and foreign currency liquidity 48; External debt 48; International investment position 43; Other 17 - Where do you obtain official statistics? - Official press releases and publications on macroeconomic statistics: 96 - Private sector summaries and analyses: 30 - Official policy papers: 43 - Publications from international organizations about Oman: 78 - Other sources: 22 - Refer to official descriptions of sources and methods used? - Yes: 73 - No: 27 - Purposes for use (selected): - Analysis of current developments for short-term decision making: 74 - Analysis of trends for longer-term policy formulation: 74 - Econometric model building and forecasting: 52 - Economic research: 74 - Comparison with other countries: 65 - General economic background: 78 - Coverage and detail (average across datasets) - Satisfied with coverage: 81 Yes; 19 No - Satisfied with level of detail: 67 Yes; 33 No - Periodicity and timeliness (average) - Satisfied with frequency of compilation: 87 Yes; 13 No - Satisfied with dissemination timeliness: 68 Yes; 32 No - Other dissemination practices (average) - Aware of public release calendar: 25 Yes; 75 No - Statistics released on announced dates: 35 Yes; 65 No - Enough information about revisions: 57 Yes; 43 No - Accessibility (average) - Can easily access official statistics: 90 Yes; 10 No - Can easily access methodological information: 67 Yes; 33 No - Methodology sufficiently clear and detailed to be useful: 48 Yes; 22 No; 30 No Opinion - How access official statistics: Official releases 61; Hard copy publications 57; Data specifically requested 13; Official website 96; Other 9; E-mail requests 9 - Overall assessment (average) - Underlying methodology sound and appropriate: 88 Yes; 12 No - Official statistics unbiased and accurate: 90 Yes; 10 No - Compare quality with other countries in region (Average): Better 38; Same 59; Worse 3 - Overall quality rating (1=poor; 5=excellent): 3.72 (average across datasets) ### Serviceability and accuracy — user concerns - Reported issues: - Lack of communication regarding data revisions. - Some data still labeled preliminary although published two years ago. - Monthly bulletin often not fully updated; annual data published late. - Some GFS and CPI data published irregularly. - Lack of foreign trade data; difficulties accessing data on Domestic Household Savings and Investments, Foreign Institutional Investment and Foreign Direct Investment (FII and FDI), education, health and poverty indicators, and youth unemployment rates. - Some published data prepared by single entities without cross-agency vetting; some published data contradict NCSI or other agencies. - Instances of inappropriate rounding (thousands vs. millions) and vague labeling (e.g., "uncategorized income"). ### User recommendations (synthesis) - Provide more detailed breakdowns in National Accounts, GFS, and BOP. - Publish debt service to GDP ratios and related GFS indicators. - Disaggregate prices (separate rent, water, fuel) to analyze subsidy removal impacts. - Release Quarterly Real GDP and more timely BOP data. - Provide longer-horizon oil price projections (5 years) and disaggregated national accounts projections (oil and non-oil). - Improve metadata accessibility and English-language publication where relevant. - Create an interactive online database for selectable time series and frequencies. - Improve communication on revisions and publish a public release calendar. *Source: Users’ survey of Oman’s macroeconomic statistics: October–November 2014.* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2015/_cr15159.pdf_