## _cr15305

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---

### Executive summary — overall assessment
- Mid-term assessment of the Sixth Five Year Plan (SFYP) finds broadly positive outcomes in growth, employment and poverty reduction during the first three years, but material shortfalls relative to SFYP targets in investment, public investment, some sectoral growth and institutional implementation.
- Results-based monitoring and evaluation (RBME) introduced; First implementation review July 2012 piloted SFYP Results Framework (RF); a Proposed Results Framework (PROPOSED RF) developed to improve quantitative and institutional indicators.
- Key risks identified:
  - Shortfall in GDP targets owing to persistent global downturn and shortfall in private sector investment.
  - Public investment rate significantly lower than planned; ADP implementation and PPP momentum weak.
  - Export concentration risk: continued heavy reliance on RMG.
  - Labor market risks: recent evidence suggests pace of overseas employment expansion likely to slow down.
  - Political turmoil (October–December 2013) slowed domestic activity and increased FY14 fiscal uncertainty.

### Macroeconomic performance and outlook
- Growth:
  - SFYP five-year average GDP growth target: 7.3 percent (6.1 → 8.0 from FY10 → FY15).
  - Actual GDP growth first three years: FY2011-12: 6.23 percent; FY2012-13: 6.03 percent; average real GDP growth first three years: 6.4 %.
  - FY14 estimate: 6.2 percent; FY16 projection (peak): 6.5 percent (Annex discussion).
- Investment:
  - SFYP investment rate targets (Total Investment Rate): 24.4 → 26.8 → 32.5 (% of GDP) (Base Year FY10, FY13, FY15 target).
  - Actual total investment stabilized around 27 % of GDP during FY12-FY13 (short of 32.5% target).
  - Public Investment Rate targets: 5.0 → 6.9 → 7.5 (% of GDP) (FY10, FY13, FY15 target).
- Fiscal and external indicators (selected SFYP targets and outcomes):
  - Tax to GDP ratio (%): Baseline (FY10) 9.0 → End of Plan (FY15) 12.4; Actual FY11 10.2; FY12 10.8; FY13 11.0.
  - Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP): Baseline (FY10) 3.7 → End of Plan (FY15) 5.0; Overall Balance (Excluding Grants) FY13 -454.0 (-4.4) billion Taka.
  - Export to GDP ratio (%): Baseline (FY10) 16.2 → FY15 23.9; Actual FY11 20.6; FY12 21.0; FY13 20.2.
  - Remittances (US $ billions): Baseline (FY10) 10.9 → FY15 17.8; Actual FY11 11.5; FY12 12.7; FY13 14.3.
  - CPI Inflation: Baseline (FY10) 7.3 → FY15 target 6.0; Actual FY11 8.8; FY12 10.6; FY13 7.7; FY14 around 7.3%.
  - Foreign reserves: increased by about $12 billion since July 2010 to more than $19 billion by March 2014 (more than 6 months import cover).
- Monetary and inflation management:
  - Monetary tightening from January 2012 arrested earlier excessive monetary growth; BB’s MPS aimed to bring average inflation to 7% (1995/96 base) or 6-6.5% (2005/06 base).
  - Recent inflation around 7%-7.5%; food inflation remains the principal driver.

### Progress with GDP growth, employment and poverty
- SFYP core targets (Base Year FY10 → End Year FY15):
  - Annual GDP growth rate (%) — 6.1 → 8.0 ( five year average 7.3)
  - Headcount Poverty Incidence (%) — 31.5 → 22.5
  - Additional Employment (million) — -- → 10.4
- Sectoral composition FY10 → FY13 (share and growth in constant prices):
  - Agriculture: Share 20.3 → 18.7; Growth 5.2 → 2.1
    - Crops o/w: Share 11.4 → 10.25; Growth 6.1 → 0.1
  - Industry: Share 29.9 → 31.99; Growth 6.5 → 9.9
  - Services: Share 49.8 → 49.30; Growth 6.5 → 5.7
- Employment outcomes (million workers, estimates):
  - FY10 (Base): Total Domestic Employment 51.9 (Agriculture 24.7; Manufacturing 6.4; Services & Others 20.8)
  - FY13 (Estimated): Total Domestic Employment 56.5 (Agriculture 24.2; Manufacturing 8.2; Services & Others 24.1); Additional Domestic Employment 4.6; Additional Manpower Exports 1.5; Additional Employment 6.1; Additional labor force 5.4
  - FY15 SFYP planned: Total Domestic Employment 61.1; Additional Domestic Employment 9.2; Additional Manpower Exports 1.2; Additional Employment 10.4; Additional labor force 9.2
- Poverty trajectory (GED linear trend estimates — Head Count Poverty Upper/Lower lines):
  - 2011: 29.69 (Upper), 15.65 (Lower)
  - 2012: 27.95 (Upper), 13.98 (Lower)
  - 2013: 26.21 (Upper), 12.31 (Lower)
  - 2014: 24.47 (Upper), 10.64 (Lower)
  - 2015: 22.73 (Upper), 8.97 (Lower)
- Key policy priorities to support employment and poverty reduction:
  - Improve investment climate: ease land acquisition, introduce land zoning, deregulation, overcome power and gas shortages, improve trade logistics and contract enforcement.
  - Address public investment shortfall: steady implementation of Tax Modernization Plan, proper pricing of electricity and energy, rationalize subsidies.
  - Focus on labor skills and training; strengthen SME support beyond subsidized credit; encourage non-RMG export diversification.

### Sectoral growth performance — manufacturing, agriculture, services
- Manufacturing:
  - Manufacturing sector average growth FY11-13: 9.4% (missed FY11-13 target 9.7% by 0.3%).
  - Manufacturing GDP share rose; RMG was main contributor to manufacturing growth and export dynamism.
  - Non-RMG manufacturing and SMEs under-performing; policy bias in trade regime against non-RMG exports identified.
- Agriculture:
  - Agriculture growth fell into 2-3% range in FY12–FY13 despite normal weather; crops sub-sector growth fell sharply (crops growth in FY13 0.15% vs target 4.5%).
  - Food grain production FY12: 34.88 million metric tons (aus 2.33 mmt, aman 12.80 mmt, boro 18.76 mmt, wheat 0.99 mmt).
  - Fisheries and livestock performed better: fisheries growth FY11-FY13 over 5%; fisheries production examples: 85.0 thousand MT reported in sector extract.
- Services:
  - Services grew around same rate as GDP but about 1% point slower than projected in SFYP.
  - ICT and some formal services expanded; exports of non-factor services little progress.
- Trade policy and protection:
  - Evidence of strong anti-export bias: effective rates of protection (ERP) average >200% for many import-competing industries; ERP for export products near zero or modestly negative.
  - Table 4.7 nominal protection trends (selected): FY13 Average NPR 108; Top NPR 156.41.
  - Policy recommendation: reverse anti-export bias by reducing output tariffs (para-tariffs) and adjusting input tariffs to be pro-export.

### External sector and exports
- Exports (US$ millions) — selected totals:
  - FY10 Total Exports 16176.2; RMG Total 12496.8; Non-RMG Total 3701.7
  - FY11 Total Exports 22919.3; RMG 17914.3; Non-RMG 5005.0
  - FY12 Total Exports 24287.7; RMG 19089.8; Non-RMG 5198.0
  - FY13 Total Exports 27018.3; RMG 21515.8; Non-RMG 5502.4
- Export growth rates:
  - FY11 total export growth 41.7%; FY12 6.0%; FY13 11.2%.
  - RMG dominance increased; RMG first half FY14 US$11.9 billion (about 20% higher than corresponding period FY13).
- Remittances:
  - Workers' remittances: FY10 10987; FY11 11513; FY12 12735; FY13 14338 (US$ millions).
  - Inflow decline: remittances declined by $623 million (8.4%) in first half FY14; departure numbers declined since early 2013.
- External balances (selected BOP aggregates, million USD):
  - Exports: FY10 16236; FY11 23008; FY12 23989; FY13 26566; FY14 Projections 30551
  - Imports: FY10 21388; FY11 32527; FY12 33309; FY13 33576; FY14 Projections 35255
  - Current Account Balance: FY10 3734; FY11 -1686; FY12 -447; FY13 2525; FY14 Projections 3396
  - Overall Balance: FY10 2865; FY11 -656; FY12 494; FY13 5128; FY14 Projections 4596

### Infrastructure — power, energy, transport (selected exact figures and outcomes)
- Power sector achievements and concerns:
  - Electricity generation capacity: FY10 baseline 5823 MW → FY13 achieved 9598 MW (65% increase over baseline).
  - Population access to electricity: FY10 47% → FY13 62%.
  - Per capita electricity consumption: 170 KWh (FY10) → 285 KWh (FY13).
  - Fuel mix FY09: 83% gas, 8% fuel oil; FY13: 78% gas, 17% fuel oil, 3% coal.
  - Electricity subsidy and energy fiscal gap:
    - Electricity subsidy: taka 12 billion in FY10; taka 60 billion in FY12; taka 55 billion in FY13.
    - Fuel subsidy (diesel) and related losses: fuel subsidy amounted to taka 152 billion in FY13.
    - Total energy subsidies amounted to taka 204 billion in FY13 (almost 2% of GDP).
    - Total energy sector financial gap (including capital investments financed from national budget): taka 304 billion (about 3.0% of GDP) in FY13.
  - Concerns: high marginal cost from rental plants; rise in oil-based generation; lack of coal policy; gap between cost of production and tariff causing large losses.
  - Policy priorities: restore financial sustainability, least-cost expansion path, finalize national coal policy, invest in gas exploration, and tariff/fuel pricing reform.
- Transport sector performance and implementation constraints:
  - Roads: SFYP target construct 4,672 kms new roads by FY15; actual FY11-FY13 completed 406.5 kms (8% of target).
  - Widen/strengthen target 8,433 kms by FY15; actual FY11-FY13 1,993 kms (23% of target).
  - RHD capacity constraint: Roads Division implementing 156 projects (ADP allocation Taka 358.52 billion for FY13).
  - Padma Bridge experienced major delays due to procurement/donor issues; revised schedules provided for main bridge works.
  - Rail: usable track FY10 2,835 kms → FY13 2,877 kms; targets FY15 3,252 kms; freight ton-kilometers declined from 770,064 (FY10) to 611,489 (FY13).
  - Ports: Chittagong Port turnaround time improved to 4.91 days in FY13; container throughput per ship day improved.
- Infrastructure financing:
  - ADP prioritization: Power, Energy and Transport represented 32% of total ADP in FY13.
  - ADP implementation issues: under-spending early in fiscal year and end-year rush; foreign-aid financed project utilization lags domestically financed resources.
  - PPP pipeline: 16 identified PPP projects with aggregate estimated project costs listed in source (examples: Dhaka-Elevated Expressway $1,088; Dhaka-Chittagong Access Controlled Highway $1,625; 2nd Padma Multipurpose Bridge $1,640).

### Human resource development — education, health, population, nutrition
- Education (selected indicators from Table 6.1 — preserved exactly):
  - Gross Intake Rate: Baseline 115% (2009); Target (2015) 116%; Current Status 105.8% (DPE-ASC 2012, PN 24)
  - Net enrolment rate primary: Baseline 93.5% (2009); Target (2015) 100%; Current Status 96.7% (DPE-ASC 2012, PN 36)
  - Completion rate (grade V): Baseline 55% (2009); Target (2015) 100%; Current Status 73.8% (DPE-ASC 2012, PN XXVIII)
  - Student teacher ratio: Baseline 1:48 (2009); Target (2015) 1:30; Current Status 1:49 (DPE-ASC 2012, PN 71)
  - Public current expenditure on education as % of GDP: Baseline 2% (2009); Target (2015) 4%; Current Status 2.02% [2013] (Budget, 2013)
- Education evaluation:
  - Achievements: expanded access and participation, gender parity at primary/secondary, recruited 90,000 teachers, free books, ICT labs in secondary schools, pre-school classes in government schools (over 8 lakhs children).
  - Shortfalls: quality, repetition and absenteeism targets unmet; teacher training relevance issues; VTE coverage low (2% post grade 8); public expenditure insufficient to reach SFYP capacity targets.
  - Recommendation: devolve responsibilities to local governments, re-examine budget priorities to add at least 1% of GDP to health and education by end of Plan, strengthen NGO partnerships, improve equity via scholarships under NSSS.
- Health, population and nutrition (selected indicators from Table 6.2–6.4 — preserved exactly):
  - Life expectancy: 66.6 (SVRS 2007) → Target 70 → Current Status 69.0 (SVRS, 2011)
  - Maternal Mortality Ratio (per 100,000 live births): 194 (BM MS 2010) → Target 143 → Current Status 209 (SVRS, 2011)
  - Neonatal Mortality Rate (per 1000 live births): 37 (BDHS 2007) → Target 27 → Current Status 32 (NIPORT et al., 2013)
  - Under 5 Mortality Rate: 65 (BDHS 2007) → Target 50 → Current Status 44 (NIPORT et al., 2013)
  - Contraceptive Prevalence Rate: 55.8% (BDHS,2007) → Target 74% → Current Status 62% (UESD, NIPORT,2013)
  - Total Fertility Rate: 2.7 (BDHS,2007) → Target 2.2 → Current Status 2.11 (BDHS,2011)
  - Nutrition: stunting under-5 children 41% (2011) with current status 38.7% (UESD, 2013b); underweight under-5 children 36% (BDHS, 2011).
  - Health workforce: "1.07 nurses per 10,000 individuals"; vacancy rates "18%" for health workers and "almost 23%" for physicians; only "as little as 16% of doctors operating in rural facilities."
- Health and population evaluation:
  - Achievements: gains in facility births, skilled attendance, reduced under-5 mortality, expanded HPNSDP institutionalization.
  - Shortfalls: human resource shortages, procurement and MIS weaknesses, maternal mortality above target, family planning modern method and LAPM shares below targets, nutrition indicators require stronger outreach and multi-sectoral coordination.
  - Recommendation: strengthen decentralization, upgrade MIS, recruit and incentivize rural health staff, scale up nutrition outreach with UNICEF/WHO/FAO and NGOs, consider health insurance implementation.

### Poverty reduction, gender empowerment, social inclusion and social protection
- Poverty:
  - SFYP headcount target: 31.5% → 22.5% by 2015.
  - Current Status (2013): 26.3% (Table 7.1 / chapter text provides 26.21% GED trend estimate).
  - Sixth Plan projection: reduction path 2011–2015 (see Poverty trajectory bullets above).
- Employment and remittances:
  - Jobs created first three years: 2.0 million (actual) vs projected 1.2 million.
  - Manpower exports contributed to total additional employment (6.1 million total additional employment by FY13 estimate; including overseas).
- Social protection:
  - Actual resource allocation around 2.2 to 2.4% of GDP (FY10-FY13) vs SFYP target 3% of GDP by FY15.
  - Government prepared National Social Security Strategy (NSSS) to consolidate programmes, introduce G2P cash transfers, modern MIS, grievance redress and results-based M&E.
  - Expected NSSS outcomes: eliminate leakages, improve targeting, raise average transfer values, reduce poverty and inequality.
- Gender and social inclusion:
  - Gender gains: strong progress in gender parity in education and higher female representation (ratio of girls to boys in tertiary up to 73% by 2013).
  - Remaining challenges: increase female labor force participation, wage discrimination, workplace safety in RMG, full implementation of CEDAW and gender-related laws.
  - Social inclusion: progress in child protection (Children Act 2013); ethnic communities, PWD and other excluded groups have targeted measures but implementation lags.

### Environment, climate change and disaster management
- Environment and climate targets (selected SFYP targets and status):
  - Productive forest coverage target FY15: 15% (baseline 13.14% in 2010); Department of Forest reports mixed density data.
  - Protected terrestrial and marine areas target FY15: 5%; current 2.29%.
  - CO2 emissions per capita FY13 est. 0.34; FY15 target 0.38.
  - ODS consumption FY10 72.6 ODP tons → FY15 target 65.34.
- Institutional and legal progress:
  - BCCSAP, National Environment Council, Climate Change Unit, Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund in place; amendments and laws enacted (e.g., Environment Court Act 2010; Brick Kiln Act 2013; Biosafety Rules 2012).
  - MoEF capacity constrained; incentive instruments largely unimplemented.
- Disaster management:
  - Cyclone shelters baseline 2,852 (2010) → actual 3,286 (2011/12); SFYP target 5,352 by 2015.
  - CDMP achievements: training, school drills, micro-zonation maps, extended flood forecasting, volunteer training, IVR dialing service (10941).
  - Disaster budget stable ~0.5% of GDP in FY10–FY14.
- Recommended way forward: focused results-oriented strategy integrating regulation, incentives, investment and capacity building; integrate climate-proofing into development strategy (Bangladesh Delta Plan-2100 noted).

### Governance and institutional reform
- RBME and monitoring:
  - RBME introduction and RF piloting; PROPOSED RF to strengthen governance and institutional indicators.
- Key governance indicators and recent values (selected exact figures):
  - Numbers of Bills passed per year: baseline 37 (8th Parliament) → latest 54 (9th Parliament).
  - Average parliamentary attendance: baseline 57% (8th) → latest 58% (9th First Fifteen Session).
  - Proportion of Elected Female Representatives: baseline 2% (8th) → latest 6% (9th).
  - Percent of Gross NPL in Public Banks: baseline FY10 14.08 → Sept 2013 28.8 (very worrying deterioration).
  - Income Tax as % of GDP: baseline FY10 2.9 → 2013 3.4 (small improvement).
  - Case backlogs in formal justice system: 1.8 million (2010) → 2.7 million (May 2013).
  - Case Disposal Rate {Civil}: 7.91 (2011) → 8.23 (2012); Case Disposal Rate {Criminal}: 42.98 (2011) → 42.33 (2012).
- Institutional reforms and achievements:
  - Progress in Digital Bangladesh initiatives, National Portal Framework, District e-Service Centres (DeSCs), Union Information and Service Centres (UISCs), Jatiyo e-Tathyakosh, e-Purjee.
  - MTBF implementation underway; results-based M&E institutionalized at GED level; project-level RBM&E lagging.
  - Civil service reform draft act, pay commission, training initiatives; local government elections reinstated with capacity-building underway.
- Priority governance actions recommended:
  - Strengthen judicial capacity for faster disposal; strengthen local government legal/financial autonomy; civil service merit-based promotion and incentives; urgent reform of public banks; accelerate Tax Modernization Project; strengthen Anti-Corruption Commission.

### Annex and data inventories (selected)
- Annex tables provide multi-year fiscal and macro series FY10-18 (Annex Table 1.1 through Annex Table 1.7) and sectoral monitoring tables.
- Annex Table 1.8: "External Debt Dynamics for SFYP" — located page 170 (title and scope noted; explicit data not present in supplied content).
- Annex Table 1.3: NBR Tax Revenue series (In billions of taka) preserved as listed:
  - NBR Tax Revenue: 597, 762, 916, 1033, 1201, 1418, 1674, 1992, 2467
  - Nominal GDP (In Billion Taka): 6943, 7967, 9187, 10379, 11738, 13376, 15214, 17321, 19737
  - NBR Tax Revenue (In Percent of GDP): 8.6, 9.6, 10.0, 10.0, 10.2, 10.6, 11.0, 11.5, 12.5

*Source: _cr15305 — Executive Summary, Chapters 1–9, Annex excerpts (MID-TERM REVIEW OF THE SIXTH PLAN) from the provided PDF.*

### Executive Summary ......................................................................................................

### _cr15305 - Executive Summary

### Coverage and Structure
- Executive Summary: page 13
- Chapters and main thematic coverage:
  - Chapter 1 — Methodology and Approach: Mid-term Review of the Sixth Plan: page 21
    - A. Background and Overview
    - B. Methodology
    - C. Structure of the MTIR
  - Chapter 2 — Progress with GDP Growth, Employment and Poverty Reduction: page 25
    - A. Introduction
    - B. GDP Growth Performance in the Sixth Plan
    - C. Employment Performance in the Sixth Plan
    - D. Poverty Outcome of the Sixth Plan
    - E. Prospects and Way Forward
  - Chapter 3 — Progress with the Macroeconomic Framework: page 41
    - A. Background--Macroeconomic Objectives under the Sixth Plan
    - B. An Overview of Macroeconomic Performance in Terms of Key Indicators
    - C. GDP Growth Outcome:
    - D. External Sector Performance
    - E. Implementation of Fiscal Policy during the Plan period, FY11- FY14
    - F. Inflation and Monetary Management
  - Chapter 4 — Sectoral Growth Performance: page 65
    - A. Introduction
    - B. Manufacturing Sector Performance
    - C. Agricultural Sector Performance
    - D. Review of Services Sector Performance
  - Chapter 5 — Progress in the Infrastructure Sector: page 84
    - A. Background and Overview
    - B. Power Sector
    - C. Transport Sector Progress
    - D. Financing Strategy and Resource Allocation for Infrastructure
    - E. Major Institutional and Policy Reforms in Roads, Energy and Power Sectors between FY10 and FY13
    - F. The Way Forward
  - Chapter 6 — Progress with Human Resource Development: page 101
    - A. Introduction
    - B. Education
    - C. Health, Population and Nutrition
    - D. Population
    - E. Nutrition
    - F. Progress with Cross-Cutting Issues
    - G. Future Prospects
  - Chapter 7 — Poverty Reduction, Gender Empowerment, Social Inclusion and Social Protection: page 122
    - A. Introduction
    - B. Progress with Poverty Reduction
    - C. Gender Empowerment
    - D. Social Inclusion
    - E. Social Protection
  - Chapter 8 — Progress with Sustainable Development: Environment, Climate Change and Disaster Management: page 137
    - A. Introduction
    - B. Environmental Change Management: Sixth Plan Targets
    - C. Disaster Management
    - D. Conclusion and the Way Forward
  - Chapter 9 — Progress with Governance and Institutions: page 147
    - A. Introduction
    - B. Sixth Plan Strategy for Governance Improvement and Development of Institutions
    - C. Progress with Democratic Governance
    - D. Progress with Policies
    - E. Progress with Institutions
    - F. Concluding Observations
- Annexes:
  - Annex 1 — Revised Macroeconomic Framework for Sixth Five Year Plan: page 161
  - Annex 2 — Proposed Development Results Framework for monitoring the Five Year Plan: page 171
  - Annex 3 — Outline for Line Ministry Inputs: page 178
    - A. Progress with Implementation of the Sixth Plan Targets
    - B. Major Policies and Institutional Reforms between FY10-FY13
    - C. Important Constraints that Affect the Ministry/Sector Performance
    - D. Improvement for the Future

### Key Tables and Data Inventories (selected)
- Chapter 2 tables include:
  - Table 2.1: Sixth Plan Targets for GDP Growth, Employment and Poverty Reduction
  - Table 2.2: Major Sectoral Share and Growth Performance of GDP in constant prices, FY10-13
  - Table 2.3: Investment Targets for the Sixth Plan
  - Table 2.4: Export Performance in the Sixth Plan, FY10-FY13
  - Table 2.5: Estimated Job Creation in the Sixth Plan (million workers)
  - Table 2.6: Projected Reduction in Poverty During the Sixth Plan Period
- Chapter 3 tables include:
  - Table 3.1: Sixth Plan Key Targets of the Macroeconomic Framework
  - Table 3.2: Progress with Macroeconomic Targets
  - Table 3.3: Developments in the Balance of Payments, FY10-14 (Million USD)
  - Table 3.4: Overseas Employment in Major Markets (in ‘000)
  - Table 3.5: Export Earnings in US $ millions
  - Table 3.11: Real Effective Exchange Rate Index; 2000-01=100
  - Table 3.12: Summary of Fiscal Operations, FY10-FY15 (In billion Taka)
  - Table 3.13: Public Investment as % of GDP
  - Table 3.14: Monetary Policy and Outcome (Growth rates %)
- Chapter 4 tables include:
  - Table 4.1: Average Decadal Sectoral Growth Rates
  - Table 4.2: Cross-Country Comparison of Manufacturing Performance
  - Table 4.3: Performance of Industrial and Manufacturing Activities Relative to SFYP Targets
  - Table 4.6: Global Economic Trends and Outlook
- Chapter 5 tables include:
  - Table 5.1: Comparison of Infrastructure Quality 2013-2014
  - Table 5.3: Energy Sector Objectives, Performance Indicators and Targets for the SFYP
  - Table 5.4: Transport Sector Objectives, Performance Indicators and Targets for the SFYP
  - Table 5.7: ADP/SFYP Allocation and Actual Expenditure for Infrastructure Ministries/Divisions (Taka billion)
  - Table 5.8: Status of PPP Financed Projects
- Chapter 6 tables include:
  - Table 6.1: Current Status of the Indicators for the Education Sector
  - Table 6.2: Current Status of the Indicators for the Health Sector
  - Table 6.3: Current Status of the Indicators for the Population Sector
  - Table 6.4: Current Status of the Indicators for the Nutrition Sub-Sector
- Chapter 7 tables include:
  - Table 7.1: Progress with Poverty, 2010-13
  - Table 7.2: Progress with Women Empowerment
- Chapter 8 tables include:
  - Table 8.1: Performance Indicators for Environment and Forest Ministry/Sector
  - Table 8.2: Progress With Environment Management and Climate Change Policies and Institutions
  - Table 8.5: Achievements of Comprehensive Disaster Management Program of Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief
  - Table 8.6: Budget for the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief
- Chapter 9 tables include:
  - Table 9.1: Governance Indicators
  - Table 9.2: State of Democratic Governance
  - Table 9.5: State of Economic Governance
  - Table 9.6: State of Justice and Human Rights
  - Table 9.7: A Snapshot of Access to Information (A2I) Programme
- Annex tables include multi-year fiscal and macroeconomic series titled for FY10-18 (e.g., Annex Table 1.1 through Annex Table 1.7 covering Real Sector Performance, Central Government Operations, Revenue Performances, Government Expenditures, Balance of Payments, Monetary Survey, Debt Sustainability Indicators)

### Intended Analytical Emphases (as indicated by structure)
- Mid-term assessment of the Sixth Plan across macroeconomic, sectoral, infrastructure, human development, social inclusion, environment, disaster management, and governance dimensions.
- Quantitative monitoring via a Revised Macroeconomic Framework and a Proposed Development Results Framework.
- Line ministry inputs structured to report progress, major reforms between FY10-FY13, constraints, and suggested improvements.

*Source: _cr15305 - Executive Summary (table of contents and list of tables) from the provided PDF.*

### Annex Table 1.8: External Debt Dynamics for SFYP................................................................ 170

### Annex Table 1.8: External Debt Dynamics for SFYP

### Overview
- Annex Table 1.8 is titled "External Debt Dynamics for SFYP".
- Location in source: page 170.

### Presumed scope and focus (as implied by title)
- External debt dynamics for the SFYP (Sixth Five Year Plan).
- Likely covers indicators and movements related to external borrowing, debt stock, and debt servicing over the SFYP period (explicit data not present in this content unit).

### Relevant abbreviations appearing in the surrounding content
- BOP — Balance of Payment
- GDP — Gross Domestic Product
- NFA — Net Foreign Assets
- SFYP — Sixth Five Year Plan

*From: _cr15305 - Annex Table 1.8: External Debt Dynamics for SFYP (page 170).*

### EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

### _cr15305 - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

### Results-based monitoring and evaluation (RBME)
- Sixth Five Year Plan introduced the concept of results-based monitoring and evaluation (RBME) to be consistent with indicative planning and to treat the Sixth Plan as a living document.
- First implementation review: July 2012 using the Results Framework (RF) introduced in the SFYP as a pilot to check whether the Sixth Plan was on course and to test RF implementation.
- Findings from the pilot review motivated a Proposed Results Framework (PROPOSED RF) to better reflect Sixth Plan goals and provide improved long-term institutional progress indicators (e.g., governance).

### Progress with economic growth, employment and poverty reduction
- Overall performance during the first three years in achieving development targets for economic growth, employment and poverty reduction is generally positive.
- Economy transformation: movement from rural-based agrarian toward modern urban-based manufacturing and services.
- Export performance is on track and has supported manufacturing expansion; exports remain concentrated on RMG.
- Shortfalls and risks:
  - Shortfall in GDP targets due to persistent global economic downturn and shortfall in private sector investment.
  - Some shortfall in domestic employment offset by better-than-expected overseas employment; recent evidence suggests pace of overseas employment expansion likely to slow down considerably owing to difficulties in several Middle Eastern markets.
  - Recent political turmoil over October-December 2013 slowed domestic economic activity.
  - Investment targets for the Sixth Plan may not be achieved; public investment rate is significantly lower than planned.
  - Significant slowdown in the rate of investment may reduce average GDP growth rate to below 7 percent over the remaining two years of the Plan.
- Main priorities to improve investment, public investment and export diversification:
  - Improve investment climate: ease land acquisition system, introduce land zoning, deregulation, overcome power and gas shortage, improve trade logistics and contract enforcement.
  - Address public investment shortfall: focused and steady implementation of the Tax Modernization Plan, proper pricing of electricity and energy, rationalization of subsidies.
  - Revamp public-private investment partnership: create a special implementation agency staffed with professionals experienced in mobilizing funds and developing PPP-type projects.
  - Additional focus on labor skills and training.
  - Learn from RMG experience: improve incentive framework for non-RMG exports, encourage export diversification, revisit trade policy to be more private sector friendly.
  - Support small enterprises beyond subsidized credit: markets, technology, vertical linkages, quality assurance, and urgently address lack of a proper information base.

### Progress with macroeconomic management
- Prudent macroeconomic management preserved and strengthened during first three years.
- Indicators on rise and in line with Sixth Plan targets: tax to GDP ratio, fiscal deficit, export growth, export to GDP ratio, current account balance, reserve build up, external debt management.
- Inflation:
  - Inflation was off-track in first two years due to excessive monetary growth and instability of commodity prices.
  - Subsequent monetary policy correction put inflation back on course; inflation at 7.3% is still higher than the Sixth Plan target (6%).
  - Continuous monitoring and management required.
- Fiscal concerns:
  - Revenue outlook for FY14 uncertain due to recent political debacles and disruption of economic activities.
  - Implementation of the Tax Modernization Plan much slower than expected.
  - Fiscal urgency has required cutbacks in spending in high-priority areas; inability to meet Sixth Plan commitments in education, health, social protection and environment has occurred.
  - Procurement problems (particularly land acquisition) slowed implementation of major infrastructure projects.
  - PPP in infrastructure has not achieved desired momentum.
- External sector:
  - Despite strong export performance, export base diversification did not happen; share of RMG exports increased.
  - Remittances did very well up to FY13 but have shown signs of softening in FY14.
  - Both trends are worrisome and need addressing.

### Sectoral growth performance
- Sixth Plan objective: accelerate overall GDP growth to 8% in FY15 by lifting manufacturing growth rate to double digits during FY11-15 with substantial increase in modern services.
- Outcomes FY11-13:
  - Manufacturing sector average growth: 9.4% during FY11-13, marginally missed FY11-13 target rate of 9.7% by 0.3%.
  - Agriculture growth: 1% point below FY11-13 Sixth Plan target; agriculture growth rate fell to 2-3% range in the past two years despite normal weather.
  - Services sector: grew around same rate as GDP but 1% point slower than projected in the Sixth Plan.
- Non-RMG manufacturing production has not progressed as expected; SMEs continue to lack dynamism.
- Services: very little progress in expansion of exports of non-factor services.
- Policy needs:
  - Rethink agriculture strategy: consider exporting rice and other food exports, revise pricing policies to provide better incentives to farmers, emphasize rural infrastructure (marketing), livestock and fisheries.
  - Review and assess manufacturing incentive structure; evidence shows trade policy biased against non-RMG exports and needs reversal.
  - Support SMEs with strategy derived from evidence-based diagnostics; development of policy and identification of thrust areas should be buttressed by additional bank loans.
  - Explore services export potential (ICT, health, education) via strong diagnostics to identify regulatory and infrastructural constraints and propose specific solutions.

### Progress with infrastructure development (power, energy, transport)
- Power sector:
  - Achievement of 9598 MW of electricity generation capacity by FY13, which is a 65% increase over the baseline year of FY10.
  - Population access to electricity increased from the FY10 baseline of 47% to 62% in FY13.
  - Per capita electricity consumption increased from 170 KWh to 285 KWh.
  - Some 500MW of power was added to the national grid based on purchase from India.
  - Concerns:
    - Huge increase in marginal cost of electricity due to reliance on rental plants supplying at much higher unit cost.
    - Sixth Plan target of diversifying primary fuel by boosting domestic gas and coal production did not materialize: share of gas in power production fell from 83% in FY09 to 78%, while reliance on fuel oil rose from 8% to 17%.
    - Higher cost of production has increased budgetary subsidies despite average electricity prices being raised multiple times.
  - Recommendations:
    - Restore financial sustainability of power sector.
    - Future power expansion must be based on least-cost expansion path, not convenience of expensive small rental plants.
    - Renewed efforts for national coal policy and invest more in gas exploration and production.
- Transport sector:
  - Performance lagging in roads, bridges, railways and ports and runs risk of substantially falling short of Sixth Plan targets.
  - Some significant roads and bridges projects completed but overall expansion much lower than envisaged.
  - Implementation issues:
    - Budgetary resources appear adequate but implementation efficiency and agency capacity are weak.
    - Example: Roads Division has 156 projects under implementation, indicating major capacity constraint.
  - Recommendations:
    - Be more strategic: identify priority projects with major economic impact and complete those first rather than spreading resources thinly.
    - Identify and complete slow-moving/problematic projects to avoid time and cost overruns.
    - Construct Dhaka Elevated Expressway from Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport to Kutubkhali on PPP basis to reduce Dhaka congestion.
    - Full diagnostics of constraints hindering PPP implementation; address inadequate institutional and technical negotiation/bidding capacity.

### Progress with human resource development (education, health, skills)
- Quantitative targets in education and HPN sector show promising progress and likely to reach desired value by 2015; however, shortfalls exist in nutrition, family planning and internal efficiency of education.
- Limited progress in strengthening management/governance capacity and improving service quality.
- Recommendations:
  - Stronger efforts to decentralize service responsibilities in health and education to local governments—agenda high on Government list but implementation slow.
  - Improve coordination within Government (between ministries, directorates and other levels); greater decentralization with responsibilities and budgets divided will reduce overlaps and align objectives.
  - Re-examine budgetary priorities to scale up resources by at least 1% of GDP to health and education by end of Plan period.
  - Consider implementation of Government‘s health insurance programme to ease pressure on public resources and promote private investment.
  - Improve equity of education spending via additional scholarships for children of poor and vulnerable families as proposed under National Social Security Strategy (NSSS).
  - Strengthen NGO partnerships to deliver health and education services in hard-to-reach areas and to socially-excluded groups.
  - Strengthen nutrition programmes and quality control oversight; partner with UNICEF/FAO/WHO and NGOs.
  - Renew focus on workforce skills: learn from East Asian training experience, strengthen private sector partnership in design and implementation of training programs including on-the-job training; consult chambers of business and commerce on a training strategy.

### Progress with poverty reduction, gender empowerment, social inclusion and social protection
- Poverty:
  - Review projections suggest poverty has continued to fall at an appreciable rate; Sixth Plan poverty reduction target likely to be met despite slower-than-projected GDP growth.
  - Positive factors: continued expansion of micro-credits and growth of real agricultural wages; slow down in agricultural growth may adversely affect poverty target.
- Gender empowerment:
  - Progress in most dimensions; Bangladesh performs especially well in gender parity in education.
  - Areas needing attention: increase female labor force participation, stronger implementation of CEDAW and other gender-related laws to prevent social violence and eliminate discrimination.
  - Need efforts to eliminate wage discrimination against female workers and improve work environment to encourage female labor force participation.
- Social inclusion:
  - Sixth Plan strategy broadly on track; particular progress in child protection, including adoption of Children Act of 2013 based on Convention of the Rights of the Child.
  - Child nutrition progress requires additional effort.
- Social protection:
  - Government continued ongoing programmes; fragmentation and duplications apparent.
  - Government prepared a new National Social Security Strategy (NSSS) to make social protection an effective tool.
  - Actual resource allocation has remained around 2.2 to 2.4% of GDP compared with target to reach 3% of GDP by end of Plan period.
  - NSSS features:
    - Inclusive of all populations irrespective of race, religion, profession, location or ethnicity.
    - Combine tax-funded safety net programmes with contributory social insurance and employment regulations.
    - Improve administrative arrangements: consolidate complementary programmes, strengthen staffing and institutions, institute a modern MIS, replace food-based transfers with cash-based payments using G2P system, introduce grievance redressing mechanism, install results-based M&E.
  - Expected outcomes of NSSS reforms: eliminate leakages, improve targeting, increase average transfer values, lower risks for poor and vulnerable, reduce poverty, help reduce income inequality and build social capital.

### Progress with environment, climate change and disaster management
- Bangladesh proactive among LDCs on climate change; developed national scientific expertise and government actions on environmental sustainability.
- Sixth Plan pushed policies and programmes forward, but large unfinished agenda remains.
- M&E effort is weak, making assessment of progress difficult.
- Need for a more focused, results-oriented strategy combining policies, regulations, incentives, investment and capacity building; integrated approach to climate proofing development strategy recommended.
- Disaster management programmes have generally performed well: reduced loss of lives and injuries via early warning systems, shelters and timely relief.
- Further efforts needed to build resilience and minimize adverse impacts on livelihoods; long-term planning and substantial public investment necessary.
- Bangladesh Delta Plan-2100, being implemented by GED of Planning Commission, likely to make a major impact.

### Progress with governance and institutions
- Introduction of RBME under Sixth Plan is a major step toward better governance.
- Progress in e-governance, Right to Information (RTI), elected local governments, and MTBF indicates commitment to improved governance.
- Governance indicators of the proposed results framework show mixed results; strengthening judicial process for faster disposal of civil and criminal cases requires particular attention.
- Priorities for future governance reforms:
  - Further strengthen democratic governance to ensure participation of all citizens and sound functioning of democratic institutions.
  - Strengthen local government institutions with well-defined legal framework assigning responsibilities and commensurate financial autonomy.
  - Strengthen civil services with merit-based promotion and improved incentives (remuneration, training) to attract deficient skills.
  - Provide financial and legal support to judiciary for faster disposal of civil and criminal cases.
  - Urgent reform of public sector banks to reduce non-performing loans and bad lending decisions.
  - Stronger implementation of Tax Modernization Project with special focus on strengthening income tax collections and overall domestic resource mobilization.
  - Strengthen Anti-Corruption Commission to yield more judicial outcomes.

*Source: _cr15305 - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY*

### CHAPTER 1

### CHAPTER 1

### A. Background and Overview
- For the first time in the history of economic planning in Bangladesh, the Sixth Five Year Plan introduced the concept of results-based monitoring and evaluation (RBME).
- The Sixth Plan included a development results framework (DRF) that defined quantitative benchmarks targets to evaluate results achieved under the Sixth Plan.
- The first implementation review was done in July 2012 using the RF as a pilot to check whether the Sixth Plan was on course and to test implementation of the DRF.
- Results of the first review suggested modifying the DRF to better reflect the goals of the Sixth Plan and to provide a better results framework for longer-term institutional progress (e.g., governance).
- A Proposed Results Framework (PROPOSED DRF) was developed to provide a more appropriate basis for assessing performance after three years.
- The PROPOSED DRF provides a more detailed quantitative framework but remains aggregative to keep M&E manageable; it is supplemented with sectoral analysis of policies and institutions for nine core thematic sectors (PROPOSED DRF shown in Annex 1).
- Sector-specific RBM&E is not commonly in place; until addressed, the MTIR requests relevant sectoral line ministries to provide written analysis and key data (outline for inputs provided to sectoral ministries in Annex 3).
- The MTIR’s sectoral coverage is a broad picture of key sectoral performances and is not a substitute for detailed sectoral reviews needed for the Seventh Plan.

### B. Methodology
- The PROPOSED DRF provides the main framework for the mid-term implementation review (MTIR).
- The PROPOSED DRF strengthens quantitative sectoral targets and benchmarks for nine thematic goals of the original RF with more disaggregated targets from the Sixth Plan.
- Some additional targets are drawn from the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) for Bangladesh; the MDG end period coincides with the Sixth Plan end year (2015), so the PROPOSED RF draws on MDG targets where appropriate.
- Given the aggregative design of the PROPOSED DRF, MTIR supplements it with detailed sectoral analysis of policies and institutions for the nine core thematic sectors.
- In the absence of systematic sector-specific RBM&E, MTIR uses the second-best option of soliciting written inputs and data from sectoral line ministries.

### C. Structure of the MTIR
- The MTIR evaluates Sixth Plan performance against core development objectives, indicates which targets are on course or not, and provides suggestions for revised targets.
- Chapter 2: Broad development impact based on GDP growth, employment, and poverty reduction.
  - Sixth Plan targets: average GDP growth of 7.3% per year over the 5 year period.
  - Time path: GDP to grow from 6% in FY10 to 8% by FY15.
  - Employment target: increase by about 2.2 million jobs per year (labor force growth: 1.8 million workers per year).
  - Employment pattern targets: share of manufacturing employment to grow to 20% and services employment to 50% by end of Sixth Plan; agriculture employment share to decline to 30%.
  - Poverty target: reduce poverty from 31.5% in 2010 to 22.5% by 2015.
  - Chapter 2 evaluates current progress, explains factors affecting GDP, employment and poverty outcomes, assesses realism of targets for remaining 2 years, and suggests policy reforms.
- Chapter 3: Progress with implementation of the Sixth Plan’s macroeconomic framework.
  - Macroeconomic framework targets include inflation, current account balances, growth of external trade, foreign currency reserves, fiscal balances, external and domestic debt, public resource mobilization, and saving and investment balances.
  - Consistency between macroeconomic framework and GDP, employment and poverty targets is emphasized; shortfalls in macro implementation likely explain shortfalls in those targets.
- Chapter 4: Sectoral GDP performance.
  - Emphasis on structural transformation: double digit plus GDP growth targeted for manufacturing to shift economy from agrarian/informal services toward manufacturing and organized services to achieve employment targets.
  - Agriculture strategy: raise productivity and foster production diversification toward higher value-added crop and non-crop production to boost incomes and support poverty reduction.
  - Chapter 4 reviews structural transformation progress, constraints, and policy reforms for agriculture, manufacturing and services.
- Chapter 5: Infrastructure development (power, gas, transport).
  - Sixth Plan identified major expansion programs in power and gas, and programs for roads, highways, bridges, water and rail transport.
  - Financing strategy: public funding and public-private-partnership (PPP); emphasis on pricing policy and institutional reforms to improve efficiency and service delivery.
  - Chapter 5 examines progress on electricity, gas and transport network expansion and service delivery, assesses constraints, and reviews PPP strategy implications.
- Chapter 6: Human Resource Development (education, training, health, nutrition, population).
  - Sixth Plan targets expansion and quality enhancements in education, health, nutrition and population growth.
  - Implementation strategy emphasizes service delivery improvement, higher public financing, and institutional reforms.
  - Chapter 6 analyzes developments since adoption of Sixth Plan, assesses progress against key targets, reviews financing and service delivery policies, identifies constraints, and proposes suggestions.
- Chapter 7: Poverty, social protection and female empowerment.
  - Sixth Plan emphasizes equity—reducing poverty, income inequality, regional imbalances, improving social protection, and enhancing female empowerment.
  - Core equity strategy elements: Human Resource Development and productive employment, plus targeted policies and programs.
  - Chapter 7 draws on Chapters 2, 3 and 6, reviews developments, assesses progress using quantitative targets and qualitative analysis, highlights gaps and constraints, and identifies options.
- Chapter 8: Sustainability—environment, climate change and disaster management.
  - Sixth Plan adopted major policies and programs for environment, climate change and disaster management; progress in these areas is long-term and quantitative data are scarce.
  - Chapter 8 reviews implementation of PROPOSED RF targets and major policy and institutional initiatives, assesses whether progress is on track, and suggests improvements for longer-term performance.
- Chapter 9: Governance and institutions.
  - Sixth Plan emphasizes improving governance and institutions for successful implementation and long-term development (Perspective Plan and Vision 2021).
  - Part 1 Chapter 9 of the Sixth Plan specifies objectives, targets and strategies for governance and institutions; PROPOSED RF identifies indicators to monitor governance.
  - MTIR uses PROPOSED RF and supplements it with qualitative analysis of policy and institutional progress as relevant.

*Source: CHAPTER 1 — Methodology and Approach: Mid-term Review of the Sixth Plan*

### CHAPTER 2

### CHAPTER 2 — Progress with GDP Growth, Employment and Poverty Reduction

### A. Sixth Plan targets and overview
- Sixth Plan (PROPOSED RF) targets (Base Year FY10 → End Year FY15):
  - Annual GDP growth rate (%) — 6.1 → 8.0 ( five year average 7.3)
  - Headcount Poverty Incidence (%) — 31.5 → 22.5
  - Additional Employment (million) — -- → 10.4

- Mid-term assessment approach:
  - Uses National Accounts published by BBS as of June 2013 based on 1995-96 base year (BBS rebased GDP to 2005-06 but consistent expenditure data not available).

### B. GDP growth performance (FY10–FY13)
- Actual growth outcomes (first three years of Sixth Plan):
  - FY2011-12: 6.23 percent
  - FY2012-13: 6.03 percent
  - Average real GDP growth first three years: 6.4 %
  - Sixth Plan five-year average target: 7.3%

- International comparison and per capita GDP:
  - Bangladesh among fastest growing countries in 2011-13 (along with China, India, Indonesia) per World Bank Global Economic Prospects, July 2013.
  - GDP per capita at current prices (USD) reached US$ 838 in FY13 (BBS estimate using 1995-96 base); BBS estimated US$1,044 using new base year 2005-06.

### C. Sectoral composition and structural change
- Major sectoral shares and growth in constant prices (FY10 → FY13 estimates):
  - Agriculture: Share 20.3 → 18.7; Growth 5.2 → 2.1
    - Crops o/w: Share 11.4 → 10.25; Growth 6.1 → 0.1
  - Industry: Share 29.9 → 31.99; Growth 6.5 → 9.9
  - Services: Share 49.8 → 49.30; Growth 6.5 → 5.7
  - Real GDP growth: 6.2 (FY10) → 6.0 (FY13 estimate)
  - Source: BBS, National Accounts Estimates, June 2013

- Key sectoral observations:
  - Agriculture slowed considerably in FY12–FY13, particularly crops.
  - Crops sub-sector value-added growth fell from average 5.5 percent in FY10-FY11 to 1.9 percent in FY12 and to 0.15% in FY13 (BBS estimate) versus target of 4.5%.
  - Total food grain production in FY12: 34.88 million metric tons (mmt) composed of aus 2.33 mmt, aman 12.80 mmt, boro 18.76 mmt, wheat 0.99 mmt — production 1% higher than previous year's actual production.
  - DAE FY13 targets: aus 2.37 mmt (1.72%), aman 13.3 mmt (3.9%), boro 19.03 mmt (1.44%), wheat 1.03 mmt (4%).
  - BBS finalised aus production FY13 at 2.16 mmt (7% lower than previous year).

- Industrial/manufacturing performance:
  - Manufacturing average growth first three years of SFYP: 10% (versus 6% during FY00-10; Sixth Plan target 12% average).
  - Manufacturing GDP share increased while agriculture share fell — progress toward structural change though full target unlikely given manufacturing shortfalls.
  - Readymade garments (RMG) exports were the main contributor to robust manufacturing growth.

### D. Growth drivers — Investment
- Sixth Plan investment rate targets and reported values:
  - Investment Rate by Source (% of GDP) — Base Year (FY10), Current Year (FY13), End Year (FY15 target)
    - Public Investment Rate — 5.0, 6.9, 7.5
    - Private Investment Rate — 19.4, 21.4, 25.0
    - Total Investment Rate — 24.4, 26.8, 32.5
  - Source: Sixth Plan

- Actual investment performance:
  - Total investment rate stabilized at around 27 % of GDP during FY12-FY13 (short of target 32.5%).
  - Shortfall in crossing to 7% GDP growth attributed largely to the investment constraint.
  - Both public and private investment shortfalls contributed to overall shortfall.

- Public investment (ADP and PPP):
  - Some progress in raising public investment but substantially short of Sixth Plan target in first three years.
  - ADP implementation: ADP increased progressively but consistently fell short of budgeted levels due to revenue shortfalls, subsidy expenditures, implementation concerns.
  - PPP strategy has not taken off significantly due to institutional challenges.

- Private investment:
  - Private investment rate shortfall from Sixth Plan target is significant and growing.
  - Constraints highlighted beyond monetary policy include:
    - Long delays in contract enforcement (average time required for enforcing a contract in Bangladesh at more than 1400 days; ranked 182 out of 183 countries surveyed in 2012).
    - Limited access to serviced land, power and gas shortages, red tape, long delays in contract enforcement.
  - Evidence indicates credit availability is not the primary constraint for organized enterprises; investment climate and competitiveness matter more.

- Investment climate international rankings and FDI:
  - Doing Business 2013 indicators show problematic areas: construction permits, getting electricity, property registration, credit facility, protection of investors, payment of tax, resolution of insolvency.
  - Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) ranking:
    - Bangladesh ranked 118 out of 144 countries in 2012 (GCI, 2012).
    - In FY13-14 Global Competitiveness Report, Bangladesh ranked 110th position out of 148 countries.
  - Investor protection: Bangladesh ranks among the top 25 countries globally for protecting investors (Doing Business 2013).
  - Average net FDI level: less than 1% of GDP — lowest among regional comparators (UNCTAD Database 2013).
  - Estimated impact: 1-2% of GDP additional FDI inflows would help GDP growth by about 0.5% on average with employment generation of about 150,000 per year in the formal sector.

### E. Growth drivers — Export performance
- Sixth Plan export targets and performance:
  - Exports projected to grow by 15% per year in current US dollar terms over the Sixth Plan period.
  - Export share of GDP target: 16% (FY10) → 23.9% (FY15).
  - Actual export trend FY11–FY13: exports grew faster than projected rate on average; if trend continues, Sixth Plan export target may be achieved.

- Export composition and values (Figures in Million USD):
  - FY10: Jute & Jute goods 736.4; Leather 226.1; Footwear 204.1; Frozen Food 445.2; ICT 35.4; Others 2294.0; Non-RMG Total 3701.7; RMG Total 12496.8; Total Exports 16176.2
  - FY11: Jute & Jute goods 1114.9; Leather 297.8; Footwear 297.8; Frozen Food 625.0; ICT 45.3; Others 2669.5; Non-RMG Total 5005.0; RMG Total 17914.3; Total Exports 22919.3
  - FY12: Jute & Jute goods 939.3; Leather 329.8; Footwear 350.6; Frozen Food 637.6; ICT 70.8; Others 2940.8; Non-RMG Total 5198.0; RMG Total 19089.8; Total Exports 24287.7
  - FY13: Jute & Jute goods 1030.6; Leather 399.7; Footwear 419.3; Frozen Food 1030.6; ICT 92.5; Others 2530.4; Non-RMG Total 5502.4; RMG Total 21515.8; Total Exports 27018.3
  - Growth rates (in percent):
    - FY11 growth over FY10: 51.4 (Jute & Jute goods), 31.7 (Leather), 45.9 (Footwear), 40.4 (Frozen Food), 27.9 (ICT), 16.4 (Others), 35.2 (Non-RMG), 43.4 (RMG), 41.7 (Total)
    - FY12 growth over FY11: -16 (Jute & Jute goods), 10.7 (Leather), 17.7 (Footwear), 2.0 (Frozen Food), 56.3 (ICT), 10.2 (Others), 3.9 (Non-RMG), 6.6 (RMG), 6.0 (Total)
    - FY13 growth over FY12: 9.73 (Jute & Jute goods), 21.2 (Leather), 19.6 (Footwear), 61.6 (Frozen Food), 30.6 (ICT), 5.0 (Others), 5.9 (Non-RMG), 12.7 (RMG), 11.2 (Total)
  - Source: Export Promotion Bureau (EPB)

- Export structure and market dynamics:
  - RMG dominance persists; share of RMG in total exports increased during the period.
  - Positive diversification indicators:
    - Within RMG: movement from lower-end to higher-end products.
    - Non-RMG sectors showing respectable growth includes ICT, leather, jute goods, footwear.
  - Key export markets:
    - European Union remains largest destination, primarily for RMG.
    - RMG exports to EU increased during Sixth Plan despite EU recession; change in rules of origin favored Bangladesh and helped woven garment exports.
    - US market: Bangladesh was second fastest growing RMG exporter to USA after Vietnam; market share in US RMG imports increasing.
  - Competitive landscape:
    - Vietnam and Indonesia are more challenging competitors in the US market relative to the EU market.
  - Policy and reputational issues for RMG sector:
    - Areas requiring action: building safety standards and relocation issues; workers' safety (fire), working conditions; workers' rights and benefits including minimum wage; branding of Bangladesh RMG to restore image.

*Source: CHAPTER 2, _cr15305 - CHAPTER 2, IMF document*

### chapter 3

### chapter 3

### C. Employment Performance in the Sixth Plan
- Two dimensions of the Sixth Plan employment challenge:
  - Quantitative challenge:
    - Labor force growth: 3.1  % per annum.
    - Population growth: 1.3% per annum.
    - Required job creation: 1.8  million  jobs  per  year  in  the Sixth  Plan period.
  - Quality challenge:
    - LFS 2010 shows about 50% of total employment (54  million) is in low productivity agriculture.
    - Labor productivity and real wages are higher in manufacturing and services, especially organized services.
    - Sixth Plan objective: create more jobs in manufacturing and organized services relative to agriculture and the informal economy.
- Analytical foundations:
  - Employment strategy driven by overall economic growth and growth of manufacturing and organized services.
  - Bangladesh’s comparative advantage in labor-intensive production and exports (experience from RMG).
  - Build on successes in export of labor services to the Middle East.
- Sixth Plan employment outcome and data limitations:
  - No updated national labor force data since LFS 2010; domestic employment estimated by applying implicit sectoral employment elasticities from the Sixth Plan to sectoral and total GDP growth rates.
  - Manpower export data from BMET used directly.
- Estimated job creation (Table 2.5) — sectoral and aggregate figures (million workers):
  - FY10 estimated in SFYP (FY10 (Base Year))
    - Agriculture: 24.7
    - Manufacturing: 6.4
    - Services & Others: 20.8
    - Total Domestic Employment: 51.9
  - FY13 (Estimated)
    - Agriculture: 24.2
    - Manufacturing: 8.2
    - Services & Others: 24.1
    - Total Domestic Employment: 56.5
    - Additional Domestic Employment: 4.6
    - Additional Manpower Exports: 1.5
    - Additional Employment: 6.1
    - Additional labor force: 5.4
  - FY15 Planned in SFYP (FY15 (Adjusted Target))
    - Agriculture: 23.5
    - Manufacturing: 10.0
    - Services & Others: 27.4
    - Total Domestic Employment: 61.1
    - Additional Domestic Employment: 9.2
    - Additional Manpower Exports: 1.2
    - Additional Employment: 10.4
    - Additional labor force: 9.2
  - Source: Sixth Plan and Mid-term Implementation Review Projections
- Observed outcomes and implications:
  - Shortfall in GDP growth compared with Sixth Plan targets reduced additional domestic job creation.
  - Shortfall offset by stronger-than-expected expansion of manpower exports.
  - Estimated total job creation of 6.1 million (by FY13) likely exceeded the addition to the labor force of 5.4 million, likely lowering open unemployment.
  - Manufacturing employment growth largely on track.
  - Transfer of labor out of agriculture to other sectors likely modest; slowdown in agriculture growth has likely constrained growth of labor productivity in agriculture.

### D. Poverty Outcome of the Sixth Plan
- Sixth Plan target: reduce head-count poverty from 31.5 percent in 2010 to 22.5 percent by 2015.
- Data limitations: last HIES conducted in 2010; no survey-based evidence since then.
- Historical trend:
  - HIES data show poverty incidence declined on average by 1.74 percentage points in Bangladesh during 2000 to 2010.
  - If this trend continued, MDG target of halving population living under the poverty line would have been achieved in 2012.
  - Estimated poverty head count in 2013: 26.2 percent (trend-based).
- Projected reduction in poverty during the Sixth Plan period (GED linear trend estimates) — Head Count Poverty with Upper and Lower Poverty Lines:
  - 2011: 29.69 (Upper), 15.65 (Lower)
  - 2012: 27.95 (Upper), 13.98 (Lower)
  - 2013: 26.21 (Upper), 12.31 (Lower)
  - 2014: 24.47 (Upper), 10.64 (Lower)
  - 2015: 22.73 (Upper), 8.97 (Lower)

### E. Prospects and Way Forward (Employment, Investment, Exports)
- Overall assessment:
  - Broadly positive performance in the first three years on economic growth, employment, and poverty reduction.
  - Progress in structural transformation toward manufacturing and services; export performance supportive of manufacturing expansion.
  - Shortfall in GDP attainment targets; shortfall in domestic employment offset by overseas employment gains.
  - Export concentration risk: exports likely to remain concentrated on RMG.
  - Investment rate slowdown may recover; average growth rate expected to be nearly below 7 percent over the remaining two years of the Plan.
- Policy priorities and recommended government actions:
  - Improve the investment climate by removing investor-identified constraints:
    - Land procurement, deregulation, power and gas shortage, trade logistics, and contract enforcement.
  - Address shortfall in public investment with measures including:
    - More focused and steady implementation of the Tax Modernization Plan.
    - Proper pricing of electricity and energy.
    - Rationalization of subsidies.
  - Additional focus on labor skills and training.
  - Improve incentive framework for non-RMG exports drawing lessons from RMG experience.
  - Enhance dynamism in small enterprises beyond subsidized credit by strengthening:
    - Market access, technology, vertical linkages, and quality assurance.
    - Urgently address lack of a proper information base for the small enterprise sector.

### CHAPTER 3 — Progress with the Macroeconomic Framework
- Macroeconomic objectives under the Sixth Plan:
  - Target: increase real GDP growth to 8% by FY15; average 7.3% real growth over the Plan period, with macroeconomic stability.
  - Higher GDP and per capita growth predicated on an 8 percentage point increase in national investment to GDP ratio over the plan period.
  - Investment expansion dependent on public resource mobilization and incentives to increase private investment.
  - Reduction in inflation targeted through monetary management and improved domestic supply of staples.
  - External stability targeted via strong export drive and prudent foreign resource mobilization, focusing on remittances.
- External and domestic shocks affecting implementation:
  - International: lingering global crisis impact on US economy and EU debt crisis affected exports to key destinations.
  - Domestic: policy implementation and economic performance impacted by political conflicts linked to run up to National Elections in January 2014.
  - Favorable: no major natural disasters over last five years, allowing steady agricultural output increases.
- Macroeconomic management record:
  - Fiscal deficit, export growth, export-to-GDP ratio, external current account balance, reserve build up and external debt management generally on track or exceeded targets.
  - Inflation remained higher than target; average inflation rates of 10.6 percent and 7.7 percent in FY 2011-12 and FY 2012-13 respectively; around 7.3% in FY14 (Sixth Plan target was 6%).
- Fiscal policy concerns:
  - Revenue outlook for FY14 uncertain due to political disturbances and disruption of economic activities.
  - Slow implementation of the Tax Modernization Plan.
  - Fiscal discipline has led to cutbacks in high priority project and programme spending in education, health, social protection and environment.
  - Public-private-partnership (PPP) in infrastructure has not materialized.
- External sector developments and concerns:
  - Exports performed strongly but export base diversification did not happen; share of RMG exports increased further.
  - Remittances surged up to FY13 but softened in FY14.

### Key Macroeconomic Targets in the Sixth Plan Results Framework (Table 3.1)
- Fiscal Policy:
  - Tax to GDP ratio (%): Baseline (FY10) 9.0 → End of Plan (FY15) 12.4
  - Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP): Baseline (FY10) 3.7 → End of Plan (FY15) 5.0
- Balance of Payments:
  - Export to GDP ratio (%): Baseline (FY10) 16.2 → End of Plan (FY15) 23.9
  - Current account balance (% of GDP): Baseline (FY10) 3.7 → End of Plan (FY15) (-) 0.4
  - Remittances (US $ billions): Baseline (FY10) 10.9 → End of Plan (FY15) 17.8
  - Foreign Reserves (month of imports): Baseline (FY10) 3.0 → End of Plan (FY15) 3.3
- Inflation Management:
  - Rate of CPI inflation (%): Baseline (FY10) 7.3 → End of Plan (FY15) 6.0
  - Growth of M2 (%): Baseline (FY10) 22 → End of Plan (FY15) 16.0
- Source: Sixth Plan Results Framework

### B. Overview of Macroeconomic Performance in Terms of Key Indicators
- Summary of first three years (Table 3.2): Actuals versus Targets
  - Real GDP growth:
    - FY11: Actual 6.7, Target 6.7
    - FY12: Actual 6.3, Target 7.0
    - FY13: Actual 6.0, Target 7.2
  - Export to GDP ratio:
    - FY11: Actual 20.6, Target 20.3
    - FY12: Actual 21.0, Target 21.2
    - FY13: Actual 20.2, Target 22.1
  - Remittances ($ billions):
    - FY11: Actual 11.5, Target 11.5
    - FY12: Actual 12.7, Target 12.7
    - FY13: Actual 14.3, Target 14.2
  - Reserves (month of imports):
    - FY11: Actual 4.0, Target 3.6
    - FY12: Actual 4.0, Target 3.4
    - FY13: Actual 5.0, Target 3.4
  - Current Account Balance (% of GDP):
    - FY11: Actual 0.8, Target (-) 0.3
    - FY12: Actual 0.4, Target (-) 0.2
    - FY13: Actual 1.9, Target (-) 0.2
  - Tax to GDP Ratio (%):
    - FY11: Actual 10.2, Target 10.0
    - FY12: Actual 10.8, Target 10.6
    - FY13: Actual 11.0, Target 11.2
  - Fiscal Balance (excluding grants) (% of GDP):
    - FY11: Actual 4.5, Target 4.4
    - FY12: Actual 4.0, Target 5.0
    - FY13: Actual 4.4, Target 5.0
  - CPI Inflation (%):
    - FY11: Actual 8.8, Target 8.0
    - FY12: Actual 10.6, Target 7.5
    - FY13: Actual 7.7, Target 7.0
- Notable developments:
  - Early macroeconomic imbalances (rising inflation near 12 at peak in FY11) and exchange market pressures were addressed by tightening monetary stance and prudent fiscal management.
  - Inflation reduced to 7.5-8% range; balance of payments recorded surpluses; foreign exchange reserve reached $19 billion (6 months of import coverage).
  - Area of concern: slow increase in public investment and persistently above-target inflation.

### C. GDP Growth Outcome
- Sixth Plan GDP growth ambition:
  - SFYP targeted average GDP growth rate of 7.3 percent for the plan period and acceleration from 6.1 percent in FY10 (base year) to 8 percent in FY15.
  - Investment rate target: rise by 8 percentage points to 32.5 percent of GDP by FY15.
- Constraints and outlook:
  - Inability to achieve 7% GDP growth largely reflects investment constraints.
  - Significant shortfall in FY13 and uncertainty in FY14 make achieving larger investment targets for FY14 and FY15 unlikely.
  - Although political stability and probable recovery in private investment could occur post-election, investment targets for the Sixth Plan are unlikely to be achieved.
- Note: Detailed macroeconomic framework tables and projections beyond FY15 are annexed in the source document.

*Source: chapter 3, _cr15305 - chapter 3*

### Annex 1.

### Annex 1.

### Growth strategy and structural transformation
- The Sixth Plan aimed to transform the Bangladesh economy away from a primarily agrarian one towards a modern manufacturing and services oriented economy.
- The Sixth Plan targeted manufacturing as the main engine of growth and sought a rise in the GDP share of manufacturing by 4-5 percentage points.
- Actual developments: growing GDP share of manufacturing and a falling share of agriculture; the targeted increase in the share of GDP will not likely be realized because of the likely shortfall in manufacturing sector value added in relation to the Sixth Plan target.

### Near term and medium term growth prospects
- FY14 GDP growth is estimated to remain at 6.2 percent (with continued uncertainty and disruptions in the pre-election period).
- From FY15, assuming a calm political environment, growth is expected to strengthen gradually, peaking at 6.5 percent by FY16 (the final year of the SFYP), aided by higher remittance and export growth and prospects for continued recovery in the US and the euro-zone area.
- Private investment is expected to underpin the recovery, supported by a substantial increase in public investment in infrastructure.
- Continued political stability is a precondition for the projected rebound in domestic investment envisaged under the revised macro-framework.

### External sector performance — trade and balance of payments summary
- External trade balance improved for the third consecutive year primarily due to strong export growth and a major slowdown in import payments.
- Trade deficit developments (million USD):
  - FY10 trade balance: -5152
  - FY11 trade balance: -9935
  - FY12 trade balance: -9320
  - FY13 trade balance: -7010
  - FY13 (Jul-Dec) trade balance: -3675
  - FY14 (Jul-Dec) trade balance: -1533
  - FY14 Projections trade balance: -4704
- Key BOP aggregates (million USD):
  - Export: FY10 16236; FY11 23008; FY12 23989; FY13 26566; FY13 (Jul-Dec) 12387; FY14 (Jul-Dec) 14511; FY14 Projections 30551
  - Import: FY10 21388; FY11 32527; FY12 33309; FY13 33576; FY13 (Jul-Dec) 16062; FY14 (Jul-Dec) 16044; FY14 Projections 35255
  - Services: FY10 -1237; FY11 -2612; FY12 -3001; FY13 -3159; FY13 (Jul-Dec) -1667; FY14 (Jul-Dec) -1908; FY14 Projections -3600
  - Income: FY10 -1487; FY11 -1454; FY12 -1549; FY13 -2315; FY13 (Jul-Dec) -1142; FY14 (Jul-Dec) -1043; FY14 Projections -2100
  - Current transfers: FY10 11610; FY11 12315; FY12 13423; FY13 15009; FY13 (Jul-Dec) 7664; FY14 (Jul-Dec) 7136; FY14 Projections 13800
    - Of which workers' remittances: FY10 10987; FY11 11513; FY12 12735; FY13 14338; FY13 (Jul-Dec) 7336; FY14 (Jul-Dec) 6727; FY14 Projections 13191
  - Current Account Balance: FY10 3734; FY11 -1686; FY12 -447; FY13 2525; FY13 (Jul-Dec) 1180; FY14 (Jul-Dec) 2652; FY14 Projections 3396
    - Current Account Balance (% of GDP): FY10 3.7; FY11 0.8; FY12 0.4; FY13 1.9
  - Financial & Capital Account: FY10 -313; FY11 1293; FY12 1918; FY13 3367; FY13 (Jul-Dec) 2057; FY14 (Jul-Dec) 644; FY14 Projections 1700
  - Errors & omissions: FY10 -556; FY11 -263; FY12 -977; FY13 -764; FY13 (Jul-Dec) -515; FY14 (Jul-Dec) -677; FY14 Projections -500
  - Overall Balance: FY10 2865; FY11 -656; FY12 494; FY13 5128; FY13 (Jul-Dec) 2722; FY14 (Jul-Dec) 2619; FY14 Projections 4596
- Source for balance of payments table: Bangladesh Bank.

### Reserve build-up and role of reserves
- Gross foreign exchange reserves of Bangladesh Bank increased by about $12 billion since July 2010 to more than $19 billion by March 2014 (equivalent to more than 6 months of import cover).
- Reserve buildup likely to continue in the remainder of FY14, albeit at a somewhat slower pace depending on recovery of import growth.
- High reserve levels:
  - Provide stabilizing role against major external or domestic shocks.
  - Can help finance massive imports and foreign currency denominated financing for major infrastructure initiatives.
  - Will help maintain and further improve Bangladesh’s sovereign rating and catalyze higher FDI.
  - Will help Bangladesh strive for attaining middle-income status.

### Remittance performance and outlook
- Remittance inflows surged from $11 billion in FY10 to $14.3 billion in FY13.
- Sixth Plan remittance target: $17.3 billion for FY15.
- Since May 2013 remittances have been on a slower or declining trend; inflow decline noted as a matter of concern.
- Inflow of workers' remittances declined by $623 million (8.4%) in the first half of FY14.
- Number of workers going abroad declined since early 2013; no signs of recovery as yet.
- Outlook: lower departure numbers expected to continue and to be reflected in continued lower remittance inflows; slower imports have so far mitigated impact on the overall BOP position. If domestic economic activity and imports pick up, sharply lower remittances could create pressures in external accounts.

### Overseas employment by destination (in ‘000)
- Table of annual overseas employment in major markets (BMET, Bangladesh Bank):
  - 2010: K.S.A 20; U.A.E. 7.1; Kuwait 203.3; Qatar 0.048; Oman 12.1; Malaysia 42.6; Others 0.91; Total 124.6; (Note: table formatting indicates values per column — preserve originals as presented)
  - 2011: K.S.A 15.0; U.A.E. 282.7; Kuwait 0.029; Qatar 13.1; Oman 135.3; Malaysia 0.74; Others 121.2; Total 568.1
  - 2012: K.S.A 21.2; U.A.E. 215.4; Kuwait 0.002; Qatar 28.8; Oman 170.3; Malaysia 0.80; Others 171.3; Total 607.8
  - 2013: K.S.A 12.6; U.A.E. 14.2; Kuwait -; Qatar 57.6; Oman 134.0; Malaysia 3.80; Others 187.1; Total 409.3
- Commentary: UAE was a major source of growth in persons going abroad in FY11-FY12; effective closing of the UAE market since late 2012 is a major blow. Saudi Arabia has remained closed to Bangladeshi workers for a long time. Outlook depends on reopening of major GCC markets and better economic-diplomacy.

### Export developments and composition
- Total exports FY11–FY13 increased despite external adverse developments; export growth primarily driven by the RMG sector with increased dependence on RMG in the export basket.
- Export earnings in US$ millions (selected values from table):
  - FY10 Total Exports: 16176.2; RMG: 12496.8; Non-RMG Total: 3701.7
  - FY11 Total Exports: 22919.3; RMG: 17914.3; Non-RMG Total: 5005.0
  - FY12 Total Exports: 24287.7; RMG: 19089.8; Non-RMG Total: 5198.0
  - FY13 Total Exports: 27018.3; RMG: 21515.8; Non-RMG Total: 5502.4
  - FY14, H1 Total Exports: 14685.8; RMG: 11932.2; Non-RMG Total: 2753.6
- Growth (percent) highlights from table:
  - FY11 total export growth: 41.7
  - FY12 total export growth: 6.0
  - FY13 total export growth: 11.2
  - FY14, H1 total export growth: 16.5
- RMG in first half FY14: increased by almost 20% to US$ 11.9 billion (first half of FY14) compared with $9.9 billion in the corresponding period of FY13.
- Non-RMG export growth subdued except FY11; some items (leather, footwear, frozen foods, ICT) show respectable growth; jute and jute goods erratic due to price fluctuations.

### RMG export market shares and destinations
- EU market:
  - RMG export market share of Bangladesh in EU (percent):
    - FY09 8.5; FY10 8.9; FY11 9.7; FY12 12.0; FY13 13.1; FY14 (Jul-Aug) 13.4
  - Bangladesh market share (% of total EU textile import):
    - FY10 % share in quantity 13.7 and % share in value 8.9
    - FY11 % share in quantity 14.7 and % share in value 10.4
    - FY12 % share in quantity 15.7 and % share in value 12.0
    - FY13 % share in quantity 18.3 and % share in value 13.1
    - FY14 (Jul-Aug) % share in quantity 17.9 and % share in value 13.4
  - RMG exports to EU (million Euros) — Bangladesh: FY10 4982.3; FY11 6492.2; FY12 7895.0; FY13 8469.1; FY14 (Jul-Aug) 1831.9
- US market:
  - RMG exports to the USA (Million US$) — Bangladesh: FY10 3617.5; FY11 4599.4; FY12 4605.3; FY13 4804.9; FY14, Q1 1410.1
  - RMG exports to the USA (share in percent) — Bangladesh: 2009 4.3; 2010 4.4; 2011 4.6; 2012 4.6; 2013 (till Sep) 5.1
  - Bangladesh moved up to the 4th position in the US market by overtaking Indonesia in the first quarter of FY14.

### RMG sector safety, labor conditions, and minimum wage
- Key concerns: building safety standards, relocation issues, workers safety (fire), working conditions, workers‘ rights and benefits (including minimum wage).
- Minimum wage increase: sector minimum wage increased by 77% after a three year period.
- CPI domestic price level over last three years increased by less than 30%; the wage increase entailed a 36% increase in real wages over a three year period.
- Current minimum wage rate after the increase: US$68 per month.
- After adjusting for relative productivity differences, the actual differential with comparator countries like Indonesia and Vietnam may have disappeared.

### Exchange rate policy and real effective exchange rate (REER)
- Early Plan period: exchange rate virtually fixed in range Tk. 68-69 per US$1.0.
- As BOP pressures emerged in FY11, BB tightened monetary policy and allowed market-determined exchange rate; nominal depreciation to about Tk. 78 per US$1 (with overshooting up to Tk. 84 per US$1 for several months).
- In FY13 excess supply of FX in interbank market led to nominal appreciation; BB purchased FX to keep nominal exchange rate around Tk. 77-78 per US$1.0.
- REER index (2000-01=100) and nominal exchange rate (selected years):
  - FY03 REER 92.27; Nominal Exchange Rate 57.90
  - FY04 REER 89.27; Nominal Exchange Rate 58.90
  - FY05 REER 88.42; Nominal Exchange Rate 61.45
  - FY06 REER 83.86; Nominal Exchange Rate 67.16
  - FY07 REER 86.55; Nominal Exchange Rate 69.06
  - FY08 REER 86.02; Nominal Exchange Rate 68.61
  - FY09 REER 91.3; Nominal Exchange Rate 68.80
  - FY10 REER 97.74; Nominal Exchange Rate 69.18
  - FY11 REER 89.42; Nominal Exchange Rate 71.22
  - FY12 REER 91.37; Nominal Exchange Rate 81.88
  - FY13 REER 99.70; Nominal Exchange Rate 77.75
- REER appreciated significantly during FY12-14 due to inflation differentials with trading partners; REER rose from 89.4 in FY11 to 99.7 in FY13 and might have crossed 100 by end-December 2013.
- Policy suggestion from text: Bangladesh Bank should consider adopting either a more aggressive stance against inflation or allow for nominal depreciation over time in line with inflation differential.

### Near- and medium-term external sector outlook
- RMG sector expected to continue consolidating its global position; export growth expected to remain robust with RMG playing dominant role.
- Managing RMG sector safety, working conditions, and labor rights should remain priorities to sustain export growth.
- Remittance growth fell and turned negative since second half of FY13; remittances expected to remain weak in FY14 and current account projected to remain in surplus in FY14.
- Remittances expected to normalize from FY15 and reach 12% growth thereafter, assuming reopening of traditional GCC markets and access to new markets facilitated by intensified economic diplomacy and expected infrastructure investments in Gulf countries.
- Export projection: expected to grow at an average of about 14.4% for the next five years (FY14–FY18) as the RMG industry upgrades factory and labor standards.
- Risk: Failure to act on RMG standards and legal status of Bangladeshi workers in GCC countries, combined with a pick-up in import growth, may quickly change the external sector outlook for current account and overall BOP.

### Fiscal policy implementation during the Plan period, FY11–FY15
- Fiscal management features:
  - Overall fiscal deficit remained significantly below 5% of GDP in first three years despite increases in spending.
  - Revenue performance very impressive in FY11-FY12 and helped sustain fiscal expansion while containing deficit.
  - Capital spending (ADP) increased every year in relation to GDP.
  - Government spending (percent of GDP) increased to provide greater coverage and improved quality of public services and social protection.
- Summary fiscal operations (In billion Taka; selected rows and percent of GDP preserved):
  - Total Revenue (Actual/Target):
    - FY10 Actual 757.4 (As % of GDP 10.9)
    - FY11 Actual 927.9 (As % of GDP 11.8)
    - FY12 Actual 1137.9 (As % of GDP 12.4)
    - FY13 Actual 1288.2 (As % of GDP 12.4)
    - FY14 Target 1635.9 (As % of GDP 14.0)
    - FY15 Target 1949.2 (As % of GDP 14.6)
  - Total Expenditure (Actual/Target):
    - FY10 Actual 1014.0 (As % of GDP 14.6)
    - FY11 Actual 1273.7 (As % of GDP 16.2)
    - FY12 Actual 1500.4 (As % of GDP 16.4)
    - FY13 Actual 1742.2 (As % of GDP 16.8)
    - FY14 Target 2220.2 (As % of GDP 19.0)
    - FY15 Target 2616.8 (As % of GDP 19.6)
  - ADP (Actual/Target):
    - FY10 ADP 257.0 (As % of GDP 3.7)
    - FY11 ADP 332.8 (As % of GDP 4.0)
    - FY12 ADP 355.0 (As % of GDP 4.5)
    - FY13 ADP 490.6 (As % of GDP 5.0)
    - FY14 Target ADP 666.0 (As % of GDP 5.7)
    - FY15 Target ADP 814.4 (As % of GDP 6.1)
  - Overall Balance (Excluding Grants) (billion Taka and % of GDP):
    - FY10 -257.0 (-3.7)
    - FY11 -352.7 (-4.5)
    - FY12 -362.5 (-4.0)
    - FY13 -454.0 (-4.4)
    - FY14 Target -584.3 (-5.0)
    - FY15 Target -667.6 (-5.0)
  - Financing (billion Taka and % of GDP) mirrors Overall Balance rows.
  - External Debt (billion Taka and % of GDP):
    - FY10 1409.5 (As % of GDP 20.3)
    - FY11 1510.9 (19.2)
    - FY12 1671.2 (18.3)
    - FY13 1870.7 (18.0)
    - FY14 Target 2033.2 (17.4)
    - FY15 Target 2243.0 (16.8)
  - Domestic Borrowing (billion Taka and % of GDP):
    - FY10 1367.8 (19.7)
    - FY11 1733.8 (22.0)
    - FY12 2231.7 (24.4)
    - FY13 1374.5 (13.2)
    - FY14 Target 2547.3 (21.8)
    - FY15 Target 2950.6 (22.1)
- Public sector debt and external debt burden in relation to GDP and debt service ratios continued to decline steadily during the Plan period.

### NBR revenue performance and tax reform
- NBR revenue exceeded budget targets in FY10–FY12; revenue-enhancing reforms and withholding mechanisms broadened the tax base (direct tax and domestic VAT).
- VAT grew by 20% per year during FY10–FY13 primarily due to domestic VAT performance.
- Direct taxes remained strong due to expanding economic base and widened withholding mechanisms.
- Planned reforms: VAT law enacted and preparations underway to modernize VAT administration; reform of direct tax law and modernization of its administration under consideration.
- FY14 revenue setback:
  - At beginning of FY14 government set ambitious NBR revenue target of Tk. 1,360 billion (22% higher than revised estimate for FY13).
  - NBR revenue shortfall in FY13 compared with revised estimate was about Tk. 3.5 billion.
  - The FY14 NBR revenue target was 25.9% higher than the actual FY13 level.
  - Economic slowdown and shutdowns due to political disturbances made it impossible for NBR to achieve the target; NBR target has been reduced.
- Outlook:
  - Tax-to-GDP ratio projected to remain slightly more than 10 percent between FY12 and FY14; projected to increase slightly in FY15 and more decisively beyond the Plan with new VAT system at beginning of FY16.
  - Implementation risk: resistance to full implementation of Tax Modernization Plan (e.g., reorganizing NBR along functional lines); a gradual approach may be more feasible but full commitment required for revenue potential to materialize.

### Implementation of public investment and ADP
- Public investment (SFYP targets vs incurred; as % of GDP):
  - SFYP targets: FY11 5.3; FY12 6.5; FY13 6.8
  - Public investment incurred: FY10 4.6; FY11 4.8; FY12 4.9; FY13 5.4
- ADP SFYP targets (as % of GDP): FY10 3.7; FY11 4.5; FY12 5.1; FY13 5.3
- ADP actual expenditure (as % of GDP): FY10 3.7; FY11 4.4; FY12 4.5; FY13 5.0
- Implementation challenges:
  - Need to increase ADP size to meet infrastructure needs.
  - Slower implementation rate in first half of fiscal year; unusually high pace in final quarter leading to risks of inappropriate use.
  - Utilization of foreign-aid financed projects lags behind domestically financed resources.
  - ADP utilization (original budgeted ADP) reached peak of 91% in FY13 but scope for further improvement remains.
- FY14 ADP risk: until January 2014 only 33% of budgeted ADP implemented (5 percentage points lower than corresponding period previous fiscal year); large NBR revenue shortfall likely to force significant cuts in ADP size in FY14.

### Foreign aid commitment and disbursement
- From mid-nineties to FY2004 there were substantial gaps between aid commitment and disbursement; gaps have diminished significantly in recent years.
- In last three financial years a foreign aid amounting to 16.58 billion USD has been committed.
- Disbursement nominal growth rates: 19.68% in FY2011-2012 and 32.19% in 2012-2013 from corresponding previous year.
- Despite improvements, a substantial unutilized foreign aid pipeline remains.

### Inflation and monetary management
- Inflation developments:
  - Inflation surged in initial year of the Plan; BB‘s tightening and favorable domestic supply helped bring inflation down to 7-7.5% in recent months (base year 1995/96).
  - Food inflation remains high and has increased in recent months; weak domestic demand helped contain non-food inflation.
- Monetary developments:
  - Accommodative money/credit policy since early FY10 led to rapid acceleration in credit growth and liquidity expansion.
  - Private sector credit growth surged to 29% from normal rates of 18-19%; broad money expansion exceeded BB targets.
  - Policy of cap on private lending rate at 13% and keeping exchange rate virtually fixed contributed to surge in inflation and asset price bubbles (stock, land, real estate).
  - Following market corrections and BOP pressures in FY11-12, BB moved to a more prudent stance beginning January 2012.
  - BB Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) January 2012: pursue a restrained monetary growth path consistent with curbing inflationary and external sector pressures, while ensuring adequate private sector credit.
  - Effective implementation of monetary tightening measures from January 2012 broadly achieved monetary targets for FY12 and FY13.
  - MPS of July 2013 and January 2014 aimed to bring average inflation down to 7% using the 1995/96 base or 6-6.5% using the 2005/06 base.
- Table reference: Monetary Policy and Outcome (Growth rates %) — table header present but table body not fully reproduced in supplied content.

*Source: _cr15305 - Annex 1.*

### 1. NET FOREIGN

### 1. NET FOREIGN

### Monetary aggregates and balance sheet developments
- Net Foreign Assets (NFA): 27.9 41.0 -1.5 6.2 -1.6 7.2 14.0 50.4
- Net Domestic Assets (NDA): 13.1 19.0 20.0 24.7 22.1 19.3 18.4 11.0
  - Domestic Credit: 15.6 17.5 18.8 27.5 20.0 19.2 18.9 10.9
  - Public Sector credit: 11.9 -4.2 29.2 34.6 28.1 17.4 20.3 11.1
  - Private Sector credit: 16.7 24.2 16.5 25.8 18.0 19.7 18.5 10.8
- Broad Money: 15.5 22.4 16.0 21.4 18.5 17.4 17.7 16.7
- Reserve Money: 7.0 18.1 15.0 21.0 16.0 9.0 16.1 15.0
- Source: Bangladesh Bank

- Bangladesh Bank shifted to a tighter monetary stance and adhered to quantitative monetary targets, achieving all major quantitative monetary targets.
- Faster buildup of NFA injected excess liquidity; Bangladesh Bank conducted sterilization operations to absorb this excess liquidity.
- Rapid buildup of NFA reflected marked strengthening of the balance of payments.

### Inflation outcomes and drivers
- Recent months: inflation moving in a relatively narrow range of 7%-7.5%, somewhat higher than the 7% target set by the government and Bangladesh Bank.
- Historical low: inflation came down to 4.96% in September 2012 (supported by subdued domestic demand, stable global prices of petroleum and cereals, relatively cheaper imports from India, prudent monetary management).
- Recent trend: domestic inflation showed an upward trend driven by acceleration of food inflation.
  - Rice prices reportedly increased by [6%-16%], according to Trading Corporation of Bangladesh (TCB) data.
  - Volatility in prices of onions, vegetables, and imported food items due to supply disruptions contributed to food inflation.
- Non-food inflation: decelerating steadily; dropped to 4.9% in December.
  - Factors dampening non-food inflation: restricted movement and store openings, sense of insecurity, demand dampening for non-essential products, monetary policy stance, and exchange rate stability.

### Inflation outlook and policy stance
- Near-term inflation influences: prospects for the boro crop and India’s inflationary environment (India is a major commodity sourcing country for Bangladesh).
- Mitigating factors cited:
  - (i) global supply situation for rice and wheat is very comfortable;
  - (ii) India recorded bumper rice and wheat crops following a very good monsoon;
  - (iii) price of rice in Bangladesh is already above that of India allowing importers to profit by importing rice from India;
  - (iv) exchange rate of Bangladesh taka against the US dollar is expected to remain stable in the near term.
- Policy recommendation and stance:
  - No scope or need for easing Bangladesh Bank’s monetary policy stance because of upward pressure in inflation in recent months and expected wage-push inflationary pressures.
  - There is enough liquidity in the money market to support a pickup in a potential post-election economic rebound.
  - Monetary policy should guard against potential inflationary pressures from large wage increases across public sector, RMG sector, EPZ enterprises, and their spillovers.
  - Monetary policy will not accommodate such potential inflationary pressures; stance should offset their inflationary impact and strive for lowering inflation to the 6-6.5% range set in the MPS.
  - Bangladesh Bank’s most recent MPS of January 29, 2014 announced a monetary policy stance with renewed emphasis on inflation fighting.

*Source: _cr15305 - 1. NET FOREIGN*

### 1.  Weak Investment Climate

### 1.  Weak Investment Climate

### Overall finding
- Chapter 2 identified shortfalls in public and private investment rates in the first three years of the SFYP and concluded that “the continued weakness in the investment climate” is a primary reason for lower-than-expected private investment and inadequate foreign private investment.

### Key implications
- The Government needs to address the investment climate comprehensively to spur manufacturing growth toward “double digit rate.”
- The better performance of FDI in neighboring countries reflects this investment climate weakness.

---

### 2.  Anti-export Bias of the Trade Regime

### Findings on protection and trade policy (FY10–FY13)
- SFYP recognized the need to reduce anti-export bias but “little or no progress in reducing anti-export bias during FY11-13.”
- Effective rates of protection (ERP) average more than 200% for most import-competing domestic industries (except pharmaceuticals) while ERP for export products is “zero or modestly negative.”
- During FY11-13 average NPRs increased, NPRs for intermediate inputs and capital goods declined further, thus raising ERPs (Figure 4.3).

### Tabled nominal protection trends (FY10–FY13)
- Table 4.7: Nominal Protection Trends (FY 10-FY 13)
  - FY 10: Un-weighted Average 13.67; CD Average 10.21; Average para-tariff 23.88; Average NPR 79; Top NPR 153.38
  - FY 11: Un-weighted Average 13.55; CD Average 10.20; Average para-tariff 23.74; Average NPR 79; Top NPR 156.34
  - FY 12: Un-weighted Average 13.57; CD Average 13.39; Average para-tariff 26.96; Average NPR 88; Top NPR 164.97
  - FY13: Un-weighted Average 13.87; CD Average 14.72; Average para-tariff 28.93; Average NPR 108; Top NPR 156.41
  - (Source: Based on NBR Asycuda database)

### Range and average ERPs (2012)
- Table 4.8: Range of ERPs and Average ERPs 2012
  - Footwear: Range 214%-342%; Average ERP 273%
  - Jute Textiles: Range 33%-125%; Average ERP 76.5%
  - Agro-based industry: Range 4.5%-381%; Average ERP 187%
  - Light Engineering: Range 117%-386%; Average ERP 219.5%
  - Ceramics: Range 190%-239%; Average ERP 214.9%
  - Pharmaceuticals: Range 9.4%-20.6%; Average ERP 3.1%
  - Electrical Products: Range 1.6%-272%; Average ERP NA
  - Domestic Garments & Embroidery: Range 5.75%-51%; Average ERP 25%
  - Plastic Products: Range 86.8%-483%; Average ERP 259.8%
  - (Source: GED Estimates based on industry survey)

### Analysis and policy recommendations
- Current trade policy stance: essentially free trade for RMG but high protection for import-substituting industries, perpetuating asymmetrical incentives that discourage non-RMG exports and export diversification.
- High ERPs indicate latent inefficiency; economically efficient reallocation implies switching resources away from high ERP activities to lower ERP activities to raise productivity and manufacturing growth.
- To cut sources of high ERPs: reduce output tariffs (especially para-tariffs) and increase very low input tariffs — this combination protects against revenue losses and could increase imports that support revenue growth.
- Primary policy challenge: reverse the anti-export bias of the tariff and protection regime and ensure a neutral or pro-export incentive regime.
- Political economy constraint: predictable pressures from trade bodies representing import-substitute producers undermined reform, stalling diversification outside RMG.

---

### 3.  Addressing Power Shortages

### Findings FY10–FY13
- Government adopted a strong reform program during FY10-13: substantial investment, sector reforms, and regional trade to increase electricity supply.
- Chapter 5 review: “considerable progress has been made in expanding the supply of power,” which positively affected manufacturing.
- Constraints remaining:
  - The average cost of electricity “has increased substantially.”
  - Demand continues to outstrip supply.

### Policy implications
- Continued efforts needed to expand power supply and reduce the average cost of production.

---

### 4.  Land Management Challenge

### Key issues
- Serviced land is the single largest limiting factor for new or expanding entrepreneurs.
- Three main access issues: a) the cost of land, b) issues of procuring land, c) availability of serviced land.
- Doing Business in Bangladesh 2013 ranks Bangladesh among the ten worst countries for registering properties.

### Finding FY11–FY13
- “Little progress in reforms that would have improved access to land for setting up manufacturing enterprises.”
- High priority area for policy attention to avoid jeopardizing manufacturing sector growth.

---

### 5.  Challenge of Labor Productivity

### Current situation
- Bangladesh’s comparative advantage: abundant and cheap labor; manufacturing labor is cheap and growing.
- Labor productivity remains low with structural barriers and pervasive skill shortages.

### Education and skills statistics
- Labor Force Survey 2010: 40 percent of the workforce is illiterate; 23 percent have only primary level education.

### Progress and approaches
- Small steps via business associations and public-private partnerships to promote demand-driven vocational training.
- RMG sector’s model of in-house training provides an approach that could be emulated.
- Education and training issues are reviewed in Chapter 6.

---

### 6.  Female Workers Disadvantaged by Gender Bias

### Findings
- Higher growth benefited from rising labor force and increasing female labor participation; RMG industry led this expansion.
- Emerging challenges:
  - Safety standards in RMG are becoming a major challenge for sustained expansion.
  - Wage rates tend to be lower for female workers relative to male.
  - Employment regulations facilitating female participation (e.g., maternity leave, child care facilities) are absent in most areas.

---

### 7.  Burdensome Government Regulations

### Progress and remaining issues
- Progress made in deregulation, but further improvements needed in business laws and contract enforcement.
- Need to scale down coverage and size of SOEs to level competition for private enterprises (e.g., jute textiles where SOEs compete in raw materials and export markets).

### Positive initiative
- BUILD (Business Initiative Leading Development) emerging from Dhaka Chamber with IFC support, featuring public-private dialogue and backed by Bangladesh Bank, National Board of Revenue, and Ministries of Commerce and Industries.
- Government support to BUILD could help promote manufacturing.

---

### 8.  Absence of a Comprehensive Strategy for Small Manufacturing Enterprises

### Findings
- Sixth Plan recognized SMEs’ importance for job creation and advocated for a comprehensive policy strategy backed by diagnostics and a proper database.
- Little progress: implementation focused narrowly on access to finance; no focused strategy based on evidence and diagnostics; institutional support lacking.

### Policy priority
- Urgent government focus required to harness SMEs for manufacturing diversification and employment expansion.

---

### C.  Agricultural Sector Performance

### Context and strategic objectives
- Agriculture share of GDP on secular decline as part of structural transformation; Bangladesh remains substantially dependent on agriculture for employment.
- SFYP and Perspective Plan 2010-21 backdrop: raise agricultural productivity and product diversification to ensure food security and rural incomes.

### SFYP broad objectives
- Achieve an average of 4.5% real growth in agricultural sector over the Sixth Plan period (quantitative target in the revised RF).
- Raise farm productivity and real income of farming families on a sustainable basis.
- Attain self-sufficiency in food grain production along with crop diversification with cereal as well as horticulture crops.
- Expand application of technology and mechanized cultivation.
- Ensure sustained agricultural growth through more efficient and balanced utilization of land, water and other resources.
- Encourage research on adaptation to climate change, and proper use of genetically modified technology in agriculture.
- Promote non-crop agricultural activities related to horticulture, forestry, livestock and fisheries.

---

### Review of agricultural performance under the Sixth Plan (FY10–FY13)

#### Growth performance (Table 4.9)
- Agriculture (A+B) growth rates:
  - FY 80- FY90: 2.5
  - FY 91- FY00: 2.8
  - FY 00- FY05: 3.3
  - FY 05- FY09: 4.2
  - FY 10: 5.2
  - FY 11: 5.1
  - FY 12: 3.1
  - FY 13: 2.1
- Sub-sector growth rates (selected):
  - A. Agriculture and Forestry FY 13: 1.18
  - i) Crops & horticulture FY 13: 0.15
  - ii) Animal farming FY 13: 3.5
  - B. Fisheries and Aquaculture FY 13: 5.52
- Agriculture as percent of GDP:
  - Agriculture (A+B): FY10 20.3; FY11 20.0; FY12 19.4; FY13 18.7
  - Crops & horticulture: FY10 11.4; FY11 11.3; FY12 10.8; FY13 10.3
  - Animal farming: FY10 2.7; FY11 2.6; FY12 2.5; FY13 2.4
  - Fishing: FY10 4.5; FY11 4.4; FY12 4.4; FY13 4.3
  - (Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics)

#### Interpretation
- Sixth Plan achieved “considerable success in the first year” with 5.1% growth in FY11, but momentum was not sustained: growth fell to 3.1% in FY12 and 2.1% in FY13.
- Decline not caused by unusual weather but by “underlying structural weaknesses,” largely in the crop sector.
- Non-crop agriculture (fisheries, livestock) performed better; fisheries grew over 5% during FY11-FY13.

#### Agricultural export trends (FY10–FY13) (Table 4.10)
- Agricultural exports: overall annual growth and export shares:
  - FY10: All Exports share 100; Annual growth 12.4
  - FY11: All Exports share 100; Annual growth 41.7
  - FY12: All Exports share 100; Annual growth 6.0
  - FY13: All Exports share 100; Annual growth 11.2
- By product:
  - Fisheries: FY10 export share 5.6; FY11 annual growth 5.8; FY12 annual growth 2.7; FY13 annual growth -15.5
  - Tea, vegetables, etc.: FY10 export share 0.3; FY11 annual growth -18.2; FY12 annual growth 112.4; FY13 annual growth 31.7
  - Raw jute: FY10 export share 1.1; FY11 annual growth -0.04; FY12 annual growth 141.1; FY13 annual growth -13.6
  - (Source: Exports Promotion Bureau (EPB))
- Agricultural export share of total exports fell to 4.9% in FY13 from 7% in FY10 due to weak agricultural export performance during FY12–FY13 and RMG dynamism.

#### Diversification and productivity
- Agricultural diversification progress modest; shares of non-cereal and non-crop components changed little in the new century.
- Within crops, rice dominates; some diversification toward wheat, maize, oilseeds, spices, pulses, potato and vegetables between 2007/08 and 2012/13; sugarcane and fruits area dropped.
- In 2012/13 the share of rice in total agricultural value fell by 0.8 percentage points; fishery and livestock rose by 0.7 and 0.2 percentage points respectively.
- Dry season irrigation expansion: irrigated area increased by 374% during FY81-08, primarily from Boro rice expansion; trend continued during the first three years of SFYP.

#### Food grain production index (FY72=100) (Table 4.11)
- Selected indices:
  - Total Rice: FY 72 100; FY 80 128.3; FY 90 181.2; FY 00 236.0; FY 08 296.0; FY 10 327.1; FY 11 343.2; FY 12 346.7; FY13 346.2
  - Boro Rice: FY72 100; FY80 139.6; FY90 347.1; FY00 634.5; FY08 1022.0; FY10 1039.1; FY11 1071.2; FY12 1079.3; FY13 1080.4
  - Rice and Wheat index: FY72 100; FY80 135.2; FY90 188.1; FY00 251.9; FY08 301.2; FY10 332.5; FY11 349.1; FY12 352.8; FY13 354.9
  - (Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics)

#### Rice yield comparisons
- Rice yield improved over time but remains substantially below China, Indonesia and Vietnam (Figure 4.5; Source: FAO).

#### Non-crop sector: fisheries
- Fisheries sub-sector:
  - Grew at over 5% during FY11-FY13.
  - Accounts for 4.4% of GDP and engages about 13% of rural labor force.
  - Contributes 4.37% to national GDP and 23.37% to agricultural GDP.
  - FY13 fisheries GDP growth 5.52% — the highest among agricultural sectors.
  - Fish provides about 60% of animal protein in daily diets.
  - Fisheries earned almost Tk. 4313.00 crore by exporting almost (sentence truncated in source).

---

*Source: _cr15305 - 1.  Weak Investment Climate*

### 85.0 thousand MT of fish and fisheries products. The fisheries activities can broadly be classified

### _cr15305 - 85.0 thousand MT of fish and fisheries products. The fisheries activities can broadly be classified

### Fisheries, Livestock, and Forestry: performance and structural change
- Fisheries production: 85.0 thousand MT of fish and fisheries products.
- Fisheries activities classified under three categories: inland capture fisheries, inland culture fisheries and marine fisheries.
- Inland capture fisheries constitute around 40% of total production of this sector.
- Structural change noted: decline of small-scale open water fisheries and growth of close water culture fisheries.
- Drivers of recent fisheries performance:
  - Combination of export and buoyant domestic demand has spurred profitability and growth.
  - Real prices have been growing, providing incentives for further investment and expansion.
  - There exists ample opportunity to develop the fisheries sector both vertically and horizontally.

- Livestock sector:
  - Contribution to GDP averaged 2.5% in FY11-FY13.
  - Currently employs around 20% of rural work force.
  - Growth history: 2% growth during 1980‘s; averaged 4.4% during FY05-.FY09; fell by roughly one percentage point during FY11-FY13.
  - Demand for livestock is buoyant and growth of demand continues to outstrip supply.
  - Result: real price of meat has continued to rise.
  - Policy implication: greater policy focus and support could yield substantial positive benefit in terms of growth, employment and consumer welfare.

- Forestry sub-sector:
  - In FY13, forestry contributed around 1.6% of GDP, with a growth rate of 5.5%.
  - Importance: sustainable forest cover needed to protect coastal areas, keep rivers navigable, maintain bio-diversity, and keep air healthy.
  - Trade-off: utilize proceeds from social forestry for livelihoods of the local poor while ensuring sustainability.
  - Threats: unplanned urbanization, construction of roads, bridges and other infrastructure, and increasing demand for food production are leading to increasing threat of de-forestation and erosion of capacity to protect habitat and environmental balance.

### Food security: achievements, gaps, and policy focus
- Bangladesh has moved from chronic food deficit to self-sufficiency in staple food for its 152.5 million people over the past forty years.
- Drivers of achievement: efficient food delivery mechanism, improved rural infrastructure, liberalized agricultural input and output markets; increased production of major cereal crops.
- Remaining challenges:
  - Need to ensure food security for a growing population, meet nutritional requirements, and ensure balanced diets.
  - Current consumption pattern: overload of carbohydrates and sugar; relatively low intake of protein and other nutrients.
  - Child nutrition remains a major challenge.

- National Food Policy (NFP) (approved by cabinet in 2006) core objectives:
  - (i) to ensure adequate and stable supply of safe and nutritious food;
  - (ii) increased purchasing power and access to food to the people;
  - (iii) to ensure adequate nutrition for all, especially women and children.

- SFYP focus: mainly on food availability (domestic production and imports) and utilization (macronutrient consumption) measures of food security.

### Services sector performance: structure, transformation, and constraints
- Sectoral role:
  - Services sector is the largest of the three broad GDP components.
  - Services share of GDP rose from 47% in FY81 to 53% in FY10.

- Structural observations:
  - Manufacturing and industry shares increased; agriculture share fell.
  - Services sector expanded with urbanization, international trade, and manufacturing activities.
  - Growing share of formal service activities: telecommunications, financial sector, urban real estate, international trade, shipping, modern health and education services.
  - Value added in trade, transport, telecommunications and financial and personal services have grown faster than average GDP.

- Table 4.12 (selected values preserved):
  - Services (Share of GDP %): FY81 47.4; FY91 47.9; FY01 50.0; FY10 52.9.
  - Wholesale and Retail Trade (Share of GDP %): FY81 12.9; FY91 12.4; FY01 12.2; FY10 14.8.
  - Transport, Storage and Communication (Share of GDP %): FY81 10.7; FY91 9.7; FY01 9.0; FY10 10.7.
  - Housing Services (Share of GDP %): FY81 8.1; FY91 8.6; FY01 8.7; FY10 6.8.
  - Public Administration and Defense (Share of GDP %): FY81 1.5; FY91 2.1; FY01 2.3; FY10 2.8.
  - Other Services (professional services, finance, etc) (Share of GDP %): FY81 14.2; FY91 15.1; FY01 15.0; FY10 17.8.

  - Growth Rate (% annual average over the decade), Services: FY81 4.0; FY91 3.7; FY01 5.8; FY10 7.3.
  - Growth Rate (% annual average), Wholesale and Retail Trade: FY81 5.0; FY91 3.6; FY01 5.0; FY10 6.9.
  - Transport, Storage and Communication growth rates: FY81 4.0; FY91 4.3; FY01 4.4; FY10 7.5.
  - Housing Services growth rates: FY81 3.0; FY91 3.2; FY01 3.4; FY10 3.7.
  - Public Administration and Defense growth rates: FY81 4.6; FY01 6.7; FY10 7.3.
  - Other Services growth rates: FY81 6.3; FY91 4.8; FY01 6.5; FY10 7.0.

- Sixth Plan services growth strategy main elements:
  - Continued transformation away from informal to formal service activities (banking and financial services, education, health, tourism and international trade).
  - Rapid expansion of ICT related services.
  - Exports of services.

- Progress and constraints:
  - Good progress in ICT and growth of formal services; rapid expansion of internet and mobile phone access.
  - Government digitalization of services proceeding, though slower than anticipated.
  - Growth in mobile financial services and e-banking noted; private supply expanding health and education services.
  - Efforts to increase services exports have not materialized substantially.
  - Remaining constraints include foreign currency regulations on investments abroad; restrictions on inflow of experts for health and education; restrictions on foreign investment in services; tax and licensing fee issues; weak investor-friendly regulators.
  - Recommendation: a sound diagnostic study to identify constraints to expansion of services exports and review lessons from successful comparator countries.

### Infrastructure sector: overview and comparative position
- SFYP prioritized improved power, energy, transport and other infrastructure to achieve growth strategy.
- World Economic Forum (2013-2014) comparison (Table 5.1) shows Bangladesh deficient in infrastructure quality among peer Asian countries except Myanmar.

- Table 5.1 (selected values preserved):
  - Bangladesh: Country Ranking 110; Overall Infrastructure Score 2.8; Electricity 2.2; Roads 2.8; Railroads 2.4; Port 3.5.
  - India: Country Ranking 60; Overall Infrastructure Score 3.9; Electricity 3.2; Roads 3.6; Railroads 4.8; Port 4.2.
  - China: Country Ranking 29; Overall Infrastructure Score 4.3; Electricity 5.1; Roads 4.5; Railroads 4.7; Port 4.5.
  - Cambodia: Country Ranking 88; Overall Infrastructure Score 3.9; Electricity 3.2; Roads 3.7; Railroads 2.0; Port 4.0.
  - Myanmar: Country Ranking 139; Overall Infrastructure Score 2.1; Electricity 2.9; Roads 2.4; Railroads 1.8; Port 2.6.
  - Pakistan: Country Ranking 133; Overall Infrastructure Score 3.3; Electricity 2.0; Roads 4.0; Railroads 2.5; Port 4.5.
  - Sri Lanka: Country Ranking 65; Overall Infrastructure Score 4.8; Electricity 5.0; Roads 4.7; Railroads 3.6; Port 4.2.
  - Thailand: Country Ranking 37; Overall Infrastructure Score 4.5; Electricity 5.2; Roads 4.9; Railroads 2.6; Port 4.5.

- Key messages:
  - Bangladesh has made progress in some areas (notably electricity) but lags peers in quality of roads and ports in some comparisons.
  - Need for focus on efficient implementation of infrastructure investments and institutional changes in implementation, regulation, and policy formulation.

### Power sector: strategy, achievements, and concerns
- Energy sector components: electricity, gas, coal, liquid fuel, wind energy, solar and other non-petroleum fuel.
- Government identified power supply as major constraint on GDP growth and adopted a reform program focusing on:
  - Rapid growth in electricity production, distribution and consumption.
  - Mobilizing private investment in electricity production.
  - Enhancing availability of primary fuel via expansion of gas and coal production.
  - Improving efficiency by reducing transmission and distribution losses.
  - Improving power-pricing policy for demand management and reducing budget burden.
  - Exploring electricity-trading options with neighbors (India, Nepal and Bhutan).

- SFYP energy sector performance snapshot (Table 5.3, selected exact entries preserved):
  - FY10 (baseline) indicators:
    - Subsidy Tk. 12 billion.
    - Electricity generation capacity: 5823 MW.
    - T&D loss (FY 08): 17%.
    - Fuel mix (FY 2009): 83% gas & 8% fuel oil.
    - 26% of generation capacity private (FY 2008): 26%.
    - Per Capita Consumption of Electricity: 170 KWH.
    - Access to Electricity: 47%.
  - FY13 (estimate) indicators:
    - Subsidy Tk. 55 billion.
    - Electricity generation capacity: 9598 MW.
    - T&D loss: 14.36%.
    - Fuel mix: 78% gas, 17% fuel oil & 3% coal.
    - 44% of generation capacity private.
    - Per Capita Consumption of Electricity: 285 KWH.
    - Access to Electricity: 62%.
  - FY15 (target) indicators:
    - Electricity generation capacity target: 15457 MW.
    - T&D loss target: 12.40%.
    - Fuel mix target: 73% gas, 19% fuel oil & 3% coal.
    - 48% of generation capacity private.
    - Per Capita Consumption of Electricity target: 390 KWH.
    - Access to Electricity target: 65%.
    - Electricity Generation (target/DRF): 15547 MW.

- Achievement against DRF targets:
  - Population access increased from 47% in FY10 to 62% in FY13; Power Cell expects to achieve 70% access by FY15 (surpassing the DRF target of 65%).
  - Per capita electricity consumption increased from 170 KWH to 285 KWH; Power Cell‘s FY15 estimate is 300 KWh, below the DRF target of 390 KWH.

- Major achievements:
  - Generation capacity of 9598 MW by FY13, a 65% increase over FY10 baseline (5823 MW).

- Concerns despite achievements:
  - Large increase in marginal cost of electricity driven by reliance on rental plants:
    - Average generation cost of BPDB plants in FY10/11: taka 3.19/KWh.
    - Average generation cost for rental power in FY10/11: taka 8.05/KWh (150% more expensive).
  - Fuel mix and primary fuel supply constraints:
    - FY09 installed capacity composition: 83% gas-based; 5% coal based; 4% hydro-based; 8% fuel oil based.
    - By FY13, share of gas-based supply fell to 78%; hydro and coal fell further (2.3% and 2.5% respectively in November 2013).
    - Some 5% of power supply is import based; remaining 25% is fuel oil-based (note: text indicates a change in composition, with rapid growth in oil-based supply from 8% in FY09 to 17% in FY13 elsewhere in the chapter).
    - Rapid growth in oil-based power supply reflects primary fuel constraint and severe rationing of gas.
    - Coal mining has not proceeded owing to lack of a coal policy.
    - Increasing reliance on imported fuel oil likely to exert pressure on balance of payments and the budget.

  - Energy pricing and financial strain:
    - Establishment of Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission (BERC) improved tariff setting; tariffs adjusted regularly per BERC guidelines.
    - Gap between average cost of production and average selling price remains large.
    - Average cost of power surged from taka 2.68/KWh in FY10 to taka 4.20/KWh in FY11 (57% increase in one year).
    - BERC increased bulk average tariff by 7.3% in response, which was insufficient.
    - Average sales price amounted to taka 2.5/KWh leading to a loss of taka 1.70/KWh.
    - Result: total power sector loss amounted to taka 46.2 billion in FY11.

- Policy implications and priorities (derived from stated findings and government strategy):
  - Continue mobilizing private investment while managing cost implications of rental generation.
  - Develop and finalize a coal policy to diversify fuel mix and reduce dependence on imported fuel oil.
  - Enhance long-term strategic planning for primary fuel supply over the next 10-20 years.
  - Improve power-sector financial viability through tariff adjustments, loss reduction, and fuel mix optimization.
  - Pursue regional electricity trade to supplement domestic supply where feasible.

*Italic: IMF country report content unit _cr15305 (excerpt).*

### 8.3  billion  in  FY09.  Average  electricity  tariffs  have  been  raised  by  BERC  a  number  of  times

### _cr15305 - 8.3  billion  in  FY09.  Average  electricity  tariffs  have  been  raised  by  BERC  a  number  of  times

### Energy sector: pricing, subsidies, and fiscal impact
- Average electricity tariffs were raised by BERC a number of times during 2012 and 2013, but the gap between the cost of electricity per KWh and the average tariff paid by consumers remains large.
- Electricity subsidy bill:
  - taka 12 billion in FY10
  - taka 60 billion in FY12
  - taka 55 billion in FY13
- Fuel oil (diesel) pricing: despite numerous adjustments, the gap between average cost and price is substantial; large diesel consumption implies enormous losses for Government fuel oil operations.
  - Fuel subsidy amounted to taka 152 billion in FY13.
- Gas pricing: no net financial loss because gas is produced domestically, but gas prices are very low relative to opportunity cost in terms of imported-fuel equivalence.
- Total energy subsidies and fiscal gap (without capital investment financed from national budget):
  - Total energy subsidies amounted to taka 204 billion in FY13 (almost 2% of GDP).
  - Capital investments financed entirely from the national budget amounted to taka 100 billion in FY13.
  - Total gap in energy sector finances was taka 304 billion, which is about 3.0% of GDP.
- Distributional note: research shows much of the energy subsidies benefit households that are not poor, raising a policy issue about proper pricing of electricity, fuel and gas.

### Transport sector: overall progress and strategic objectives
- Modal shares: road transportation carries over 70% of passenger and 60% of freight traffic.
- SFYP strategic goals (selected):
  - Develop five main corridors: Dhaka-Chittagong, Dhaka-Northwest, Dhaka-Khulna, Dhaka-Sylhet, and Khulna-Northwest.
  - Construct Padma Bridge at Mawa-Janjira.
  - Integrate inland water transport with road transport for rural transport development.
  - Improve connectivity with neighboring countries via inter-modal transport network.
  - Mobilize resources through user charges and fees across the transport network.
  - Ensure deficit free operation of Bangladesh Railway.
  - Improve transport safety standards.
  - Increase private participation in transport sector through PPP framework.
- Performance summary: transport sector has not kept pace with targets; deterioration in Global Competitiveness Index scores for roads and railways between 2010-2011 and 2013-2014.

### Roads and bridges: targets versus implementation
- RHD targets and performance:
  - Target: construct 4,672 kms of new roads by FY15.
  - Actual (FY11-FY13): 406.5 kms of new roads completed (8% of the FY15 target).
  - Target: widen and strengthen 8,433 kms by FY15.
  - Actual (FY11-FY13): 1,993 kms strengthened/widened (23% of the FY15 target).
- DRF target: 95% of road network in "good and fair" condition by FY15.
  - First implementation review: only 40% of roads determined in "good and fair" condition (benchmark FY10 was 66%), making the 95% target unlikely.
- Padma Bridge (Mawa-Janjira):
  - Major delays due to procurement issues and donor withdrawal.
  - Construction works of Janjira Approach Road, Mawa Approach Road and Service Area-2 have started.
  - Main Bridge and River Training Works expected to commence July 2014 and August 2014 respectively (as per revised schedule).
- Implementation notes: RHD is processing almost all tenders through e-gp and using GIS and HDM-4 software for road management.

### Railways: capacity, traffic, and financials
- Usable railway track:
  - FY10 benchmark: 2,835 kms
  - FY13: 2,877 kms (42 kms more than FY10)
  - FY15 target: 3,252 kms
- Railway carriage statistics (Table 5.5):
  - FY10: Kilometers 2,835; Freight Carried 2,714 (Tons-in Thousand); Ton-KM 770,064 (in Thousand); Passenger number 65,627 (in Thousand); Passenger-KM 7,305,000 (in Thousand)
  - FY11: Kilometers 2,791; Freight Carried 2,558; Ton-KM 692,640; Passenger number 63,536; Passenger-KM 8,051,920
  - FY12: Kilometers 2,877; Freight Carried 2,192; Ton-KM 582,107; Passenger number 66,139; Passenger-KM 8,787,234
  - FY13*: Kilometers 2,877; Freight Carried 2,304; Ton-KM 611,489; Passenger number 65,022; Passenger-KM 8,638,829
    - *Estimated figure.
- Trends:
  - Passenger-kilometers increased from 7,305,000 in FY10 to 8,638,829 in FY13.
  - Freight ton-kilometers declined from 770,064 in FY10 to 611,489 in FY13, a 21% decline.
- Financials and operational performance of Bangladesh Railway (BR):
  - Operating Loss: Tk. 584 crore (FY10) rising to Tk. 841 crore (FY12) and reported as Tk. 758.11 crore in FY13 (text reports increase from Tk. 560.97 crore in FY10 to Tk. 758.11 crore in FY13 in another passage).
  - Operating ratio: decreased from 199.05 in FY10 to 194.30 in FY13.
- Institutional objective: ensure deficit free operation of BR; ticket price increases have not prevented rising operating losses.

### Urban transport: Dhaka city measures and projects
- SFYP vision for Dhaka: multi-modal integrated and safe transportation system; short, medium and long-term measures.
- Planned projects and initiatives:
  - Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)-1, 2 & 3; BRT from Gazipur to Airport.
  - Mass Rapid Transit (MRT)-4, 5 & 6 planned.
  - "Greater Dhaka Sustainable Urban Transport Project" (Gazipur to Airport) scheduled to complete in December 2016.
  - Dhaka Mass Transit Company Limited formed in 2013 (100% state owned) with Project life up to June 2024.
  - DEMU (Diesel Electric Multiple Unit) commuter train service introduced.
  - Metro rail project with JICA support taken up; formal implementation yet to start.
  - Completed additions: flyovers/overpasses on airport road, Jatrabari–Gulistan flyover (PPP), new east-west connecting roads as part of Hatirjheel project.
- Implementation status: some completed projects, but overall implementation extremely slow; Dhaka continues to face increasing traffic congestions.

### Ports: Chittagong Port performance
- Chittagong Port handles 95% of the country's sea borne export and import trade.
- SFYP projections: cargo handling increase to 41 million ton in FY13 from 35 million ton in FY11; container handling increase from 1.31 million TEUs in FY11 to 1.6 million in FY13.
- Performance indicators (Table 5.6):
  - Turn Around Time of Vessels (days): FY10 5.15; FY11 6.90; FY12 4.88; FY13 4.91
  - Throughput per ship day Container: FY10 416.82; FY11 372.69; FY12 442.27; FY13 490.27
  - Throughput per ship day Cargo (Tons): FY10 1598.02; FY11 1615.04; FY12 1636.34; FY13 1666.97
- Note: Port handling improved (e.g., turnaround time fell to 4.91 days in FY13 from 6.90 days in FY11), but road and rail connectivity constraints limit fuller gains.

### Financing strategy and resource allocation for infrastructure
- Government allocations through ADP prioritized infrastructure (Power, Energy, and Transportation), representing 32% of total ADP in FY13.
- Infrastructure ministries/divisions have been among top 10 recipients of ADP allocations since FY11.
- Table 5.7 (selected figures, ADP allocations and expenditures, Taka billion):
  - Power Division:
    - FY11 ADP Allocation 50.17; Expenditure 49.95
    - FY12 ADP Allocation 59.12; Expenditure 71.85
    - FY13 ADP Allocation 70.69; Expenditure 71.57
  - Energy and Mineral Resources:
    - FY11 ADP Allocation 10.71; Expenditure 10.80
    - FY12 ADP Allocation 9.70; Expenditure 7.26
    - FY13 ADP Allocation 15.53; Expenditure 7.46
  - Road and Railway Division* (note: Roads and Railways were one Division till FY11):
    - FY11 ADP Allocation 35.04; Expenditure 34
    - FY12 ADP Allocation 29.69; Expenditure 51.13*
    - FY13 ADP Allocation 51.39**; Expenditure 45.28***
  - Bridge Division (selected):
    - FY11 ADP Allocation 11.06; Expenditure 12.77
    - FY12 ADP Allocation 3.84; Expenditure 6.88
    - FY13 ADP Allocation 15.50; Expenditure 4.18
  - *SFYP document allocation shown for Roads and Railways together for FY12 and FY13; ** figures represent combined/sum where noted in source.
- Observed outcome: Power Sector received the necessary resources with positive results; Power sector received more than SFYP allocations in FY11, FY12 and FY13.

*Source: _cr15305 PDF chapter/section content provided*

### 13. It also has been diligent in spending more than ADP allocations each year. The policies

### _cr15305 - 13. It also has been diligent in spending more than ADP allocations each year. The policies

### Energy sector performance and challenges
- ADP allocation for the other energy sector almost matched the FY11 allocation projected under SFYP, but fell short in FY12 and FY13.
- Rapid growth in share of oil-based power supply: from only 8% in FY09 to 25% in November 2013.
- Gas supply is increasingly constrained relative to demand and there is now a severe rationing of gas.
- Coal mining has not proceeded owing to the lack of a coal policy.
- Absence of a strategic long-term view about how growing primary fuel needs will be met in the next 10-20 years.
- Causes for energy shortfall: lack of adequate public investment, inadequate or lack of policy, and inability to bring in higher levels of private investments, though some oil blocks have been tendered out for exploration by oil companies.

### Road and Railway sectors: allocations, expenditures, and implementation capacity
- Combined ADP allocation for Roads and Railway in FY13: Taka 66.56 billion versus SFYP envisaged allocation Taka 59.05 billion.
- FY11 and FY12: both roads and railway sectors received resources envisaged under SFYP but spent below allocations:
  - FY11: spent Taka 29.69 billion out of allocation of Taka 35.04 billion.
  - FY12: spent Taka 45.28 billion out of allocation Taka 51.13 billion.
- In FY13 expenditure improved but still fell short of higher allocation.
- Major implementation capacity constraints:
  - Roads Division has 156 projects under implementation with ADP allocation of Taka 358.52 billion for FY 13.
  - Original project cost for the 4-Lane Dhaka-Chittagong highway: 238 billion; Taka 64.74 billion was spent until FY12.
  - IMED evaluation for 4-Laning of Dhaka-Chittagong Highway: by end of FY12 only 18.38% physical progress achieved while 27.18% of the total project cost was spent.
  - Over-programming of number of projects in pipeline ADP vis-a-vis resource availability.
  - Ministry of Communication identified constraints: inadequacy of qualified staff, procurement related problems, delay in release of funds, and long approval process.
- Padma Bridge (Mawa-Jajira point, Bridge Division):
  - SFYP proposed high allocation each fiscal year.
  - FY11 government allocated Taka 11.06 billion but finally spent only Taka 3.84 billion.
  - Project implementation halted due to procurement related problems and none of the major contracts could be awarded.

### Progress with public-private partnership (PPP) in infrastructure
- Government created a PPP office to provide institutional support and identify potential projects; PPP office identified 16 road, rail, port, and energy related projects for implementation.
- Some private investment materialized in the power sector, but not in the transport sector.
- Table of PPP-financed projects (selected facts preserved exactly as in source):
  - Number of identified PPP projects: 16.
  - Total estimated project cost (sum in table): $10,422.
  - Examples of projects and estimated project costs (as listed):
    - Dhaka-Elevated Expressway $1,088
    - 2 Jetties at Mongla Port through PPP $50
    - Dhaka-Ashulia Elevated Expressway $1,471
    - Flyover from Santinagar to Mawa Road (New) Bridge over Buriganga River $313
    - Upgrading of Dhaka Bypass to 4 Lane (Joydevpur-Debogram-Bhulta-Madanpur) $117
    - Hemayetpur-Singair-Manikganj PPP Road $86
    - Jatrabari-Sultana Kamal Bridge-Tarabo PPP Road $45
    - Dhaka-Chittagong Access Controlled Highway $1,625
    - Construction of Laldia Bulk Terminal $60
    - Construction of a New Inland Container Depot (ICD) near Dhirasram Railway Station $205
    - Fulchhari-Bahadurabad MG Railway Bridge $1,435
    - Dual gauge Double line Bangabandhu Bridge $1,025
    - Construction & Operation of Inland Container Terminal (ICT) at Khanpur $32
    - 2nd Padma Multipurpose Bridge at Paturia-Goalundo $1,640
    - 3rd Sea Port $1,200
    - LPG Bottling Plant at Kumira (Jetty, Pipelines & Storage Tank) $31
- PPP initiative in transport: out of 6 roads related projects, so far 2 projects to be implemented by the Bangladesh Bridge Authority.
- Dhaka Elevated Expressway: revised alignment finalized; revised agreement signed with investor “Italian-Thai Development Public Company Ltd.”; construction work expected to commence in June 2014 and be completed within the next 42 months.

### Major institutional and policy reforms between FY10 and FY13
- Roads sector:
  - “National Integrated Multimodal Transport Policy 2013” approved on August 26, 2013.
  - Dedicated “Road Fund” established and “Road Fund Board Law 2013” approved.
  - “Vehicle Axle Load Control Station Operation Policy 2012” adopted for road safety.
- Energy and Power:
  - Sustainable and Renewable Energy Development Authority (SREDA), Act 2012
  - The Rural Electrification Board (REB) Act, 2013
  - Interim Action Plan for Improvement of Energy Efficiency and Conservation
  - Clean Cook Stove Country Action Plan
  - Special Act for Quick Procurement in Power and Energy Sector
  - Electricity (Amendment) Act, 2012 (drafted)
  - Energy Efficiency and Conservation Rules

### The Way Forward — priorities and policy recommendations
- Prioritize identification of transformational infrastructure investments and allocate resources accordingly.
- Roads and Railway sectors should select a number of high-priority projects and complete them in a timely manner to support growth targets and improve Chittagong Port performance and manufacturing competitiveness.
- Power sector focus should be on long-term competitiveness and fiscally sound, least-cost generation rather than increasing generation at any cost.
- Urgent need for a primary fuel policy, particularly a coal policy, to address primary fuel needs over the next 10-20 years.
- Urban transportation and Dhaka traffic congestion require improved traffic management, governance, institutional reforms, adequate investments, and timely completion of projects.
- Given constraints, Government should prioritize the most transformative projects and provide all necessary resources for completion within timeline; less important projects should be delayed.
- Use PPPs to overcome budgetary and implementation-related challenges:
  - Overcome institutional and policy bottlenecks relating to PPPs.
  - Prioritize projects for PPP finance where projects are financially viable to attract private sector investment and release Government resources for other projects.
- Examples of transformative projects to prioritize and fully resource:
  - The 4-Lane Dhaka Chittagong Highway
  - Double Tracking of the Dhaka-Chittagong Railway
  - The Padma Multi-Purpose Bridge
  - Completion of the two Bibiyana gas field based large power plants.
  - The Dhaka metro rail

*Source: _cr15305 (excerpt).*

### CHAPTER 6

### CHAPTER 6 — Progress with Human Resource Development

### A. Introduction
- Bangladesh is currently experiencing ‘demographic transition’ as a result of slower population growth; entry of young population in the labor force will continue due to demographic factors.
- The Sixth Plan recognized the need to harness the demographic dividend by addressing weak labor force quality caused by low access and low quality of education, with women especially lagging.
- Sixth Plan strategy: develop and implement an education and training strategy and associated policies and institutions, with sensitivity to reducing the access gap of the poor (especially under-developed/lagging regions) and improving the skill base of women.
- A significant part of additional investment for higher growth was proposed to be deployed to development of the labor force.
- Core Human Resource Development objectives were translated into quantitative targets; some included in the Result Framework (RF), others kept outside to avoid over-loading the RF.
- This chapter uses SFYP targets/indicators and qualitative assessment to review implementation in education and health, assess successes and limitations, and provide recommendations.

### B. Education — Objectives, Targets and Strategies
- Education sector scope: over 30 million students; multiple providers; formal cycle (preschool, primary, secondary, higher) plus VTE, NFE, apprenticeships.
- Governance split: Ministry of Primary and Mass Education (MoPME) — preschool, primary education, mass literacy; Ministry of Education (MoE) — secondary, higher education, VTE.
- Dual strategic thrust of SFYP: (1) improve educational services and delivery; (2) strengthen capacity to deliver services.
- Service improvements focus on educational inputs: teachers, curricula, learning materials, physical infrastructure.
- Main elements of the Sixth Plan’s education strategy:
  - Pre-school: 1) add pre-school classes to existing primary schools; 2) develop a policy framework for early childhood development.
  - Primary: 1) better education quality; 2) increased equality in access; 3) extend compulsory education to grade 8.
  - Secondary: 1) increase participation via more infrastructure, financial incentives, new teachers; 2) enhance quality by modernizing curricula, introducing more science-based subjects and ICT.
  - Higher education: 1) improve equality of access; 2) increase quality.
  - Non-formal Education (NFE): 1) enhance learning of functional and life skills; 2) develop more life-long learning opportunities.
  - Training: 1) expand and modernize skill development courses to match market demand; 2) increase access and equality; 3) strengthen links between training and job opportunities.
- Governance and management reforms advocated:
  1) improve human resource management;
  2) increase coordination between sectors and actors;
  3) make budget planning and management more efficient;
  4) strengthen partnerships with civil society and private sector;
  5) make policy-making more participatory and ensure enforcement of policies and laws.
- Priority given to primary education as the foundation for a skilled labor force; quantitative targets established (see Indicator status below).

### Implementation of the Education Strategy, Policies and Programmes — Formal Education Cycle
- Major policy: National Education Policy of 2010 aligned with SFYP; objectives include promoting awareness of constitutional rights, equitable and inclusive education, and improving quality; proposal to extend compulsory education to grade 8.
- Key programme: Third Primary Education Development Program (PEDP 3) — five year SWAp program covering preschool (1 year) and primary (grade 1-5). Overall goal: “an efficient, inclusive and equitable primary education system delivering effective and relevant child-friendly learning to all Bangladesh‘s children from pre-primary through Grade 5 primary.”
- PEDP 3 six key areas: learning outcomes, participation, reducing disparities, decentralization, effective use of budget allocations, program planning and management. PEDP 3 focuses more on effective use of resources to improve completion rates and learning quality (addressing PEDP II limitations).
- Secondary projects: Secondary Education Quality and Access Enhancement Project (2008-2014); Secondary Education Sector Development Project (2007-2013).
- Tertiary: Higher Education Quality Enhancement Project initiated; limited additional activity reported.
- Financial incentives and programs to increase participation:
  - Prime Minister‘s Education Assistance Trust Act 2011 (trust fund for poor meritorious students).
  - Creative Talent Hunt 2012.
  - Increased coverage of School Feeding Program and stipends.
- Quality improvements: reduced teacher-pupil ratio; Primary Teacher Training Institute (PTI) implemented; 90,000 teachers recruited (with a bias for female teachers), plus head and assistant teachers.
- Early childhood: early childhood care and development policy framework developed; pre-school classes established in all government funded schools — more than 8 lakhs children receiving pre-school education.
- Materials and ICT: books distributed free to all students in primary and secondary schools; ICT labs introduced in over three thousand secondary schools.
- Physical infrastructure: Primary Education Development Project 2012 provided sanitary latrines and safe water; new and improved infrastructure across levels: 1,383 new primary schools, 4 new universities, 306 new model high schools; construction of 1,500 new colleges initiated and upgrades underway.

### Other Education Systems (VTE, Apprenticeships, NFE)
- National Skill Development Policy (NSDP) 2011 (MoE and National Skills Development Council) vision: ensure rapid economic growth with more equal distribution of benefits by improving workforce skills.
- NSDP strategies: improve VTE quality and market relevance; ensure access and quality for all social groups; increase governance and management quality for skills training.
- Measures to link training and jobs: require state-owned industries to hire apprentices; provide financial incentives to informal industries to hire apprentices.
- Projects implemented:
  - Skills and Training Enhancement Project (STEP) with World Bank — enhance training quality and employability.
  - EC-ILO Technical Vocational Education and Training (TVET) Reform project — increase TVET capacity via technical assistance.
  - Skill Development Project (SDP) with ADB — strengthen links between industries and trainees via partnerships.
- NFE framework: provide quality education and training for productive income-generating skills and self-reliance; includes early childhood, second chance, lifelong learning, basic education, vocational and other training via alternative channels.
- Delivery approach: NFE to be provided by government, NGOs, and private sector; governance via increased decentralization and greater community ownership.
- NFE projects:
  - Reaching Out of School Children 2013 — financial incentives to remain in school and promote PPPs; provided education opportunities to over 8 lakhs children (along with Second Chance).
  - Second Chance Education Program — targets never-enrolled or drop-out primary-age children.
  - Capacity Development for Education For All and Literacy (UNESCO, 2009-2011) aimed at adult literacy and government capacity.

### Evaluation of the Implementation — Successes and Limitations
- Two-category assessment: (1) improving education services and delivery; (2) strengthening capacity of institutions to deliver services.
- Quantitative targets and current status summarized below (Table 6.1 values preserved exactly):

  - Gross Intake Rate: Baseline 115% (2009); Target (2015) 116%; Current Status 105.8% (DPE-ASC 2012, PN 24)
  - Net intake rate: Baseline 99% (2009); Target (2015) 100%; Current Status 97.4% (DPE-ASC 2012, PN 24)
  - Gross enrollment rate primary: Baseline 103.5% (2009); Target (2015) 116%; Current Status 104.4% (DPE-ASC 2012, PN 36)
  - Net enrollment rate primary: Baseline 93.5% (2009); Target (2015) 100%; Current Status 96.7% (DPE-ASC 2012, PN 36)
  - Completion rate (grade V): Baseline 55% (2009); Target (2015) 100%; Current Status 73.8% (DPE-ASC 2012, PN XXVIII) — Girls: 57% (2010) → Girls: 77%; Boys: 53% (2010) → Boys: 73.5%
  - Survival rate (% of cohort reaching grade V): Baseline 59.7% (2009); Target (2015) 100%; Current Status 75.3% (DPE-ASC 2012, PN 36 XXVIII)
  - Repetition rate (each class): Baseline 12% (2009); Target (2015) <5%; Current Status 7.3% (DPE-ASC 2012, PN 36 XXVIII)
  - Student absenteeism: Baseline 18% (2009); Target (2015) 3%; Current Status 14% (DPE-ASC 2012, PN 52)
  - Student teacher ratio: Baseline 1:48 (2009); Target (2015) 1:30; Current Status 1:49 (DPE-ASC 2012, PN 71)
  - Classroom size: Baseline 40 (2009); Target (2015) 25; Current Status 40 (DPE-2011)
  - Percentage of trained teacher: Baseline 70.39% (2009); Target (2015) 100%; Current Status GPS (2012): Male Teacher in Trained: 36.5% — Female Teacher in Trained:63.5%; RNGPS (2012): Male Teacher in Trained: 61% — Female Teacher in Trained:39%
  - Net enrolment rate in secondary education, by gender: Girls: 50.8 % (2009) → Target (2015) 75% → Current Status 78% (UIS, 2013); Boys: 39.5% (2009) → Target (2015) 75% → Current Status 61% (UIS, 2013)
  - Ratio of girls to boys in primary and secondary education: Baseline 106% (2010); Target (2015) 100%; Current Status 110 (NIPORT et al., 2013)
  - Ratio of girls to boys in tertiary education: Baseline 32% (2010); Target (2015) 100%; Current Status 70% [2013] (WEF, 2013)
  - Adult literacy rate: Baseline 58% (2010); Target (2015) N/A; Current Status 53.7% (11-45 age group; BBS-LAS 2011) and 58.8% (15 and above age; MDG Report 2012)
  - Public expenditure on primary education as % of total education public expenditure: Baseline 45.36% (2009); Target (2015) 50%; Current Status 42.1% [2012] (UNICEF, 2012c)
  - Public current expenditure on education as % of GDP: Baseline 2% (2009); Target (2015) 4%; Current Status 2.02% [2013] (Budget, 2013)

- Achievements:
  - SFYP execution particularly successful at improving access and participation (especially primary): rising enrolment, completion, and survival rates; increased number of schools with pre-school classes; rise in proportion of trained teachers.
  - Gender equality gains: gender parity achieved at primary and secondary level; ratio of girls to boys in higher education increased; by 2011 gender parity in primary and junior secondary public examinations; by 2012 achieved in higher secondary examinations.
  - Quantitative expansion accompanied by infrastructure, free books, ICT labs, teacher recruitment (90,000), and pre-school reach (more than 8 lakhs children).
- Limitations and quality concerns:
  - Quality and equity remain insufficient despite quantitative gains. High repetition and absenteeism rates persist; targets for repetition and absenteeism unlikely to meet 2015 Sixth Plan targets.
  - Teacher training gaps:
    - One primary teacher training system: PTI one-year in-service program leading to Certificate in Education (over 80% of primary teachers), perceived as insubstantial and irrelevant.
    - Low ratio of trainers to trainees causing large classroom sizes in training; training viewed as overly theoretical; insufficient coverage of inclusion/special needs.
    - Study evidence: teachers’ credentials not significantly correlated with high performance in primary schools.
    - Insufficiencies in training exist at all education levels.
  - Teacher appointment and governance issues:
    - Corruption and nepotism in appointments; local officials pressuring committees or demanding “contributions”.
    - Female quotas led to inefficiencies: posts left vacant due to lack of trained female applicants.
  - Outdated curriculum, textbooks, and assessments; revisions planned for 2013 (too early to assess benefits).
  - Politicization of curricula (e.g., national history rewritten with government changes) undermines modernization and consistency.
  - Student learning mastery low: over 75% achieved grade ≥50% in national student assessment test 2011, but mastery (≥80%) attained by less than a third.
  - VTE and apprenticeship shortcomings:
    - Programs often require education up to at least grade 8, excluding informal/poor workers; TVET reaches relatively wealthy, educated individuals instead of intended disadvantaged groups.
    - Apprenticeships underused by formal and informal sectors despite financial incentives; linkage to microfinance had little effect.
    - TVET quality problems: lack of standards, mismatch with labor market needs (e.g., entrepreneurial skills), theory-oriented curriculum, trainers with little industry experience, obsolete/broken machines.
    - Enrolment in VET programs remained at only 2% post grade 8.
  - Persistent equity disparities:
    - Attendance and achievement gaps between wealthy and poor students, girls and boys, slum and non-slum dwellers, and students with special needs.
    - Fragmented institutional landscape (private, government, registered non-government, Madrassahs) with inconsistent quality standards; institutional attended is a major determinant of student performance.
    - Public expenditure less pro-poor at secondary level: UNICEF review (2012) noted “the top 40 per cent households get 52 per cent of public expenditure in secondary education.”
    - Net enrolment rate gaps: primary — 8 percentage points difference between poor and non-poor; secondary — 27 percentage points; tertiary — poor students insignificantly represented.
    - Urban slum neglect: 51% of slum inhabitants have no education vs. 31% of urban dwellers.
  - Capacity-strengthening strategy shortfalls: limited implementation evidenced by low share of GDP allocated to education (SFYP aimed to increase share from 2% to 4%).

### Key Findings and Implications
- SFYP succeeded in expanding access and participation (notably primary), advancing gender parity at lower levels, and expanding infrastructure and inputs (recruited teachers, free books, ICT labs).
- Major quality, relevance, and equity challenges remain:
  - Teacher training relevance and coverage is inadequate.
  - Curriculum, textbooks, and assessments are outdated and politicized.
  - VTE/TVET/apprenticeship systems fail to reach and serve the most disadvantaged and do not match labor market needs.
  - Public spending levels and distribution are insufficient to fully implement capacity-strengthening objectives and to ensure pro-poor outcomes, especially at secondary and tertiary levels.

*Source: CHAPTER 6, _cr15305 - CHAPTER 6*

### 2015. However, the revised budget for the financial year (FY) 2012-2013 saw an allocation

### _cr15305 - 2015. However, the revised budget for the financial year (FY) 2012-2013 saw an allocation

### Education financing and equity concerns
- Revised budget for FY 2012-2013 allocated only 2% (of total budget to education), described as an "almost insignificant increase since 2009".
- This allocation raises "serious uncertainty about the feasibility of achieving the 4% of GDP target by 2015".
- In terms of the SFYP quantitative indicators for primary education, "none of the indicators of educational expenditure are likely to be attained."
- Specific equity-promoting programmes experiencing falling funds:
  - female secondary stipends
  - "Stipends for Dropout Students"
  - "Fundamental Education for Urban Working Children"

### Health: strategy and objectives
- Health services scope: maternal, newborn and child health (MNCH), communicable and non-communicable diseases, life expectancy and immunization.
- Lead institutions: Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) and Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS).
- Three-category strategy framework:
  - Strengthening service delivery strategies:
    - decentralizing health services delivery to reach rural communities
    - strengthening delivery of maternal, newborn, child and reproductive health services
    - strengthening delivery of urban health and disease prevention services
    - ensuring gender equality within service delivery
  - Improving quality of health inputs:
    - raising public awareness
    - stepping up drug provision
    - promoting food quality and increasing access to food
    - augment surveillance of diseases
    - ensure effective use of alternative medical care (AMC)
    - implement ICT in the HPN sector
    - expand medical education and strengthen research and training
  - Building capacity to deliver services:
    - improving management and governance of the sector
    - ensuring effective budgeting and financing and allocating 12% of total budget to the HPN sector
    - provide incentives for staff to do well
    - strengthen partnerships with civil society and the private sector
- Quantitative targets have been developed in the plan to appraise success.

### Implementation: policy instruments and programmes
- 2011: new National Health Policy formulated to provide quality health care through cost-effective means; emphasizes improvements in health systems and equitable access.
- Policy included within Government's Sector-wide Approach (SWAp); focal points include nutrition (especially for children and pregnant women) and population control via increased family planning.
- Historical SWAp programmes:
  - 1998–2003: Health and Population Sector Programme (HPSP)
  - 2003–2011: Health, Nutrition and Population Sector Programme
- SFYP HPN strategy execution through Health, Population, Nutrition Sector Development Programme (HPNSDP), formulated based on National Health Policy, SFYP and Vision 2021, using SWAp.
- HPNSDP core approach: two broad categories — improving health services and strengthening health systems.
  - Improving health services includes: population control, adequate nutrition, improved health via increased family planning and contraceptive use; mainstreaming nutrition within regular health services; better preventive and curative disease approaches; increasing drug quality and provision; enhancing maternal care and child health services.
  - Strengthening health systems includes policy and institutional reforms and decentralization of management.
- Thirty-two operational plans (OPs) defined for HPNSDP:
  - Sixteen OPs fall in the health sector and are the responsibility of the DGHS, including Maternal, Neonatal, Child and Adolescent Health; Essential Service Delivery (ESD); Community Based Health Care; Hospital Services Management; Pre Service Education; Health Education and Promotion; Communicable Disease Control (CDC); Non-Communicable Disease Control (NCDC).
  - Eight other OPs developed to support the health system under MoHFW and other agencies.

### Evaluation of implementation and quantitative status (HPNSDP budget and indicators)
- Budget execution against HPNSDP development budget:
  - Development budget for 2011-16: Tk. 22,176.65 crore
  - Amount spent as of December 2013: TK. 5528.18 crore
- Table 6.2: Current Status of the Indicators for the Health Sector (baseline, target (2015), current status)
  - Life expectancy: 66.6 (SVRS 2007) → Target 70 → Current Status 69.0 (SVRS, 2011)
  - Maternal Mortality Ratio (per 100,000 live births): 194 (BM MS 2010) → Target 143 → Current Status 209 (SVRS, 2011)
  - Neonatal Mortality Rate (per 1000 live births): 37 (BDHS 2007) → Target 27 → Current Status 32 (NIPORT et al., 2013)
  - Infant Mortality Rate (per 1000 live births): 52 (BDHS 2007) → Target 31 → Current Status 35 (NIPORT et al., 2013)
  - Under 5 Mortality Rate (per 1000 live births): 65 (BDHS 2007) → Target 50 → Current Status 44 (NIPORT et al., 2013)
  - Maintain low prevalence of HIV: <1% → Target <1% → Current Status 0.1% (WB, 2013b)
  - Prevalence of Night blindness among pregnant women: 2.90% → Target 1% → Current Status 2.74% (MoHFW, 2013)
  - TB case detection rate: 73% (NTP 2008) → Target 75% → Current Status 70% [NTP 2012 ] (MIS DGHS, 2013)
  - TB cure rate: 92% (NTP 2008) → Target 95% → Current Status 92% [NTP 2012 ] (MIS DGHS 2013)
  - Malaria mortality (per 100,000 population): 1.4 (NMCP 2008) → Target 0.6 → Current Status 0.11 (MIS NMCP, 2013)
  - Proportion of h/h own at least 1 insecticide treated net: 64% → Target 80% → Current Status 82% (MoHFW, 2013)
  - Under-5 children sleep under treated net: 81% (NMCP 2008) → Target 90% → Current Status 90% (MIS NMCP, 2013)
  - Births attended by skilled health personnel: 26.5% (UESD 2010) → Target 50% → Current Status 34.4% (PMMU, MOHFW 2013b)
  - Facility level delivery: 15% (BDHS 2007) → Target 50% → Current Status 28.8% (NIPORT et al., 2013)
  - ANC coverage (4 visits): 20.6% (BDHS 2007) → Target 50% → Current Status 26.8% (INFSU, 2013)
  - PNC coverage (mother): 21.3% (BDHS 2007) → Target 50% → Current Status 27.1% (NIPORT et al., 2013)
  - PNC coverage (children): 21.9% (BDHS 2007) → Target 50% → Current Status 29.6% (NIPORT et al., 2013)
  - Met need for EOC services: 22.43% (BDHS 2007) → Target 80% → Current Status 55.95% (BDHS, 2011)
  - TT coverage (children protected at birth from Tetanus): 93% (CES 2008) → Target 95% → Current Status 94% (WB, 2013b)
  - Valid coverage of full Immunized children: 75.2% (CES 2008) → Target 90% → Current Status 81.2% (CES, 2013)
  - Immunization of 1 year old children against measles: 83% (CES 2008) → Target 100% → Current Status 84% (NIPORT et al., 2013)

### Achievements and remaining challenges
- Documented achievements:
  - Increased number of births at health facilities and attended by skilled health personnel.
  - Decreased mortality rates for newborns and children under-5; some are "reaching the targeted level."
  - Progress in detecting and preventing communicable and non-communicable diseases.
  - Increased life expectancy to "almost 70."
- Remaining key challenges:
  - Human resources: trained medical personnel numbers are "too low for adequate coverage of the whole population." (example begins: "there are approximately 3.05 physicians and" — text cuts off)
  - Procurement issues.
  - Data collection shortcomings.

*Source: _cr15305 - 2015. However, the revised budget for the financial year (FY) 2012-2013 saw an allocation*

### 1.07 nurses per 10,000 individuals, one of the lowest ratios in the world. Indeed, the MoHFW

### _cr15305 - 1.07 nurses per 10,000 individuals, one of the lowest ratios in the world. Indeed, the MoHFW

### Health workforce and service delivery constraints
- Health workforce density: "1.07 nurses per 10,000 individuals, one of the lowest ratios in the world."
- Vacancy rates:
  - "18% vacancy rate for health workers"
  - "almost 23% when looking at physicians"
- Geographical distribution:
  - "as little as 16% of doctors operating in rural facilities"
  - Cause: "lack of incentives for health workers to work in rural areas"
- Consequences and observations:
  - Slow capacity to fill sanctioned vacant health worker positions.
  - Urban concentration of health workers leaving rural areas underserved.

### Procurement, equipment, and governance in health
- Drug and supplies availability:
  - "Most of districts hospitals reported having adequate drug availability"
  - "some of the Community Clinics lacked some of the most basic drugs"
- Equipment and utilization:
  - "Most Community Clinics were also short of basic equipment"
  - "in many other institutions the equipment provided was not put to use"
- Causes:
  - "funding constraint"
  - "lengthy procurement processes"
- Recommended system change:
  - "A more simplified and standardized procedure must be developed."
- Governance concerns:
  - Widespread perception via media of "fraud pharmaceutical companies and clinics ... marketing dangerously low quality drugs and treatment"
  - Governance issues present in both public and private sectors, risking patient lives.

### Management Information Systems (MIS)
- Current problems:
  - "database collection and analysis requires a major effort"
  - "Many important data are missing in the routine MIS"
  - "a considerable amount of redundant data due to the lack of coordination between the relevant institutions"
- Recommended action:
  - "simplified and harmonized MIS system to collect information efficiently, collating them and storing in computerized system needs to be established."

### Population: strategies, implementation, and targets
- Country context:
  - "Bangladesh has a population size of over 152.5 million people, making it the 9th most populated country in the world"
- SFYP population objective:
  - "total fertility rate (TFR) reaches its replacement level of 2.2 by 2015"
- SFYP strategies and objectives (enumerated):
  - "strengthening efforts in and focus on population control"
  - "managing the population momentum effect"
  - "mainstreaming the population services at all levels of health centers"
  - "improving the effectiveness of population control programs"
  - "increasing the contraception rate to 74%"
  - "strengthening the family planning services"
  - "improving the monitoring and evaluation process"
  - "improving human resources"
- Institutional strengthening:
  - Human resources in "MoHFW and the Directorate General of Family Planning (DGFP)" to be strengthened.
  - "A monitoring and evaluating (M&E) system was to be set up."

### Population: implementation actions and outputs
- Policy and program milestones:
  - "National Long-Acting or Permanent Method of Family Planning Policy was approved in 2011"
  - "National Population Policy was finalized in 2012"
  - Population control incorporated into HPNSDP with 7 of 32 OPs designed to improve population control services.
- FP program elements:
  - Emphasis on "long acting permanent methods (LAPM)" and awareness raising.
  - Improvements in procurement and distribution to avoid shortages; promotion of "mix-method contraception."
- Staffing and training outputs since FY10:
  - "more than 6,500 new staff members have been recruited for the DGFP"
  - "2,957 CCs‘ family welfare workers at the community level have completed their training"
  - "10,264 personnel have been trained in clinical contraception"
  - "Interventions for post-partum family planning have been initiated in 30 facilities"
  - Focused programs in "Sylhet and Chittagong Divisions"

### Population: indicators and current status (as presented)
- Table 6.3 indicators (Baseline Status (2007) — Target (2015) — Current Status (2011)*):
  - "Population Growth Rate 1.40 (SVRS,2007) 1.3 1.37 (BBS,2011)"
  - "Total Fertility Rate 2.7 (BDHS,2007) 2.2 2.11 (BDHS,2011)"
  - "Contraceptive use rate of married adolescent (BDHS,2007) 37.6% 50% 42.4% (BDHS,2011)"
  - "Permanent & Long acting FP 7.3% (BDHS,2007) 20% 8% (BDHS,2011)"
  - "Contraceptive Prevalence Rate 55.8% (BDHS,2007) 74% 62% (UESD, NIPORT,2013)"
  - "Modern method of contraceptive 47.5% (BDHS,2007) 63% 53.1% (UESD, NIPORT,2013)"
  - "Discontinuation rate of FP methods 56.5% (BDHS,2007) 20% 35.7% (BDHS,2011)"
  - "Unmet need for FP 17.1% (BDHS,2007) 7.6% 13.5% (BDHS,2011)"
  - "Percentage of women using modern contraceptives in low performing areas Sylhet: 25% Chittagong: 38% Sylhet: 65% Chittagong: 65% Sylhet: 39% Chittagong: 44%"
- Evaluation highlights:
  - "progress seems to be on track" for fertility and population growth indicators, "very close to reaching their objectives for 2015"
  - However, "LAPM still only accounts for 8% of all contraceptive use" and SFYP objective of increasing to "20% by 2015 seems fairly unrealistic"
  - "apart from the contraceptive use rate of married adolescents, all other indicators have failed to show significant progress"

### Population: implementation gaps and policy concerns
- Staffing and training:
  - "shortage of family planning workers" in absolute numbers relative to demand
  - "large amount of vacancies in hard-to-reach areas"
  - Training may be "obsolete" and "will require updating ... to reflect international standards and best practices"
- Geographic disparities:
  - "most of the west of the country has now reached replacement levels, compared to the east ... that has a fertility rate of up to 1.5 children above the replacement rate"
- Contraception and targets:
  - "It is unlikely that any of these will be able to reach the 2015 targets without considerable additional effort."
- Required actions:
  - "additional efforts are needed to improve the supply of family planning staff, contraceptive supply and budgetary resources"

### Nutrition: strategy, implementation, and indicators
- Nutrition challenges:
  - "undernutrition and micronutrient deficiency"
  - As of 2011: "41% of the children under-5 suffered from stunting" and "36% of them were underweight (BDHS 2011)"
  - "Maternal undernutrition stood at 18% overall"
  - Micronutrient deficiency: "anemia, a condition affecting around 60% of children between 6-23 months and 50% of pregnant women"
- SFYP nutrition approach:
  - "mainstream all nutritional services for all levels of health services"
  - Focus on "maternal and infant nutrition" and distribution of "free micronutrients and vitamin supplements"
  - Strengthen roles of ministries/directorates and "increasing the knowledge and training of health workers in nutrition"
- Institutional responsibility:
  - Operational Plan: "National Nutrition Services (NNS) of DGHS"
  - Other bodies: "Institute of Public Health Nutrition" and "Bangladesh National Nutrition Council"
  - Multi-ministry partnership: "MoF, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Fisheries of Livestocks, Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR), Ministry of Women and Children Affairs (MoWCA)"
- Nutrition Operational Plan objectives (four):
  - "secure universal access to nutrition services through mainstreaming nutrition with health and family planning services"
  - "using a multi-sectoral approach ... improved coordination between relevant institutions"
  - "build up human resources' capacity to manage, monitor and deliver these nutritional services"
  - "adequate managing of the information system and monitoring and evaluation ... for a result-based assessment"
- Implementation actions:
  - National Food Policy (2006) and Plan of Action (2008)
  - Country Investment Plan (CIP) approved in 2010 and upgraded in 2011
  - NNS focusing on "childhood under-nutrition (under-2 and 3-5 year old children), adolescent girls, and lactating and pregnant women"
  - Distribution of vitamins and micronutrients; new communication strategies; expanded monitoring (household surveys, Food Security Nutritional Surveillance Program)
- Nutrition indicators and current status (Table 6.4 excerpts):
  - "Postnatal VAC supplementation 29% 80% 75% (UESD, NIPORT et al., 2013b)*"
  - "Severe anemia (children) 64% 50% 33% (BMNS, 2012, ICDDR,B)*"
  - "Exclusive breast feeding of children (< 6 months) 42% 80% 63.4% (INFSU, 2013)"
  - "VAC coverage (6m-6y) 98%-100% 98%-100% 94% (WB, 2013b)*"
  - "Severe anemia (pregnant women) 46% 40% 42.4% (BDHS, 2011)"
  - "Underweight of Under-5 children (6-59 months) 41% 33% 36% (BDHS, 2011)"
  - "Stunting of Under-5 children 43% 25% 38.7% (UESD, 2013b)"
- Evaluation findings:
  - Mixed performance: strong gains in "Postnatal VAC supplementation" but deterioration in "severe anemia in pregnant women"
  - Food security shortcomings:
    - Increased supply "almost entirely ... through increases in the rice stock"
    - "very little progress in terms of diversifying the food supply"
    - "proportion of children receiving a minimum acceptable diet has actually fallen"
    - "consumption of iodized salt" has fallen
    - Access to food "has seen very little change, especially in terms of gender-based inequalities"
  - Inequalities:
    - "stunting of children in the wealthiest quintile is a half of that in the poorest quintile"
    - "Children living in rural areas ... have a larger chance of being affected by stunting than children living in urban areas"
  - Service scope and coordination:
    - Interventions for moderate acute under nutrition cover "2% of under-5 children"
    - Interventions for severe acute under nutrition cover "10%."
    - "lack of coordination between the head institutions" leading to fragmented interventions and duplication
  - Budget: "the budget for this sector is substantially insufficient."

### Cross-cutting institutional issues
- Governance:
  - "Accountability within the different responsible levels of ministries and directorates is a difficult challenge"
  - Centralized administration "hinders the SFYP's performance"
  - Decision-making power remains largely central, causing "delays, internal inefficiencies and the misuse of resources"
  - Top-down planning limits local stakeholder involvement and ownership; slows adaptation to local needs
- Fiscal commitment:
  - Actual expenditures "were lower than what had been Proposed in the Sixth Plan"
  - "usual pattern has been that actual expenditure falls short of both budgeted and revised budget expenditures"
  - Causes include "financing constraint" and "procedural problems in release of finance, procurement and other implementation constraints"
  - Current combined spending on education and health: "about 3% of GDP on education and health from the budget"
  - Comparative benchmark: "5-6% in East Asian countries"
  - Suggested financing need: "Bangladesh needs to gear up its Human Resource Development expenditure to at least 4-5% of GDP"
  - Sixth Plan recognition: financing challenge "was recognized in the Sixth Plan but remains almost unaddressed."

### Future prospects and consolidated recommendations
- Summary assessment:
  - "progress in many areas but also shortfalls and areas of concern"
  - Some quantitative targets "will likely reach the desired value by 2015"; others such as "nutrition, family planning and internal efficiency of education may well fall short"
  - "management and governance capacity of these sectors and improving the quality of the services have made limited progress"
  - "equity aspects also require much more attention"
- Key recommendations (enumerated):
  - "stronger efforts are needed to implement the Sixth Plan‘s recommendation to devolve service responsibilities in health and education to the local governments."
  - "the coordination within the government (between ministries, directorates and other levels) needs to be improved."
  - "a re-examination of budgetary priorities is needed to allocate greater resources for health and education."
    - Target: "to allocate at least 1% of GDP more resources to these activities by the end of the Plan period."
    - "The implementation of the government‘s health insurance programme will also help."
  - "the equity aspects of education spending can be improved by providing additional resources for scholarships for the children of the poor and vulnerable families as Proposed under the National Social Security Strategy (NSSS)."
  - "Partnership with NGOs could be strengthened to deliver health and education services in the hard-to-reach areas as well as to reach out the socially-excluded groups."
  - Nutrition-specific:
    - "Outreach programmes need to be strengthened."
    - "Stronger partnership with international institutions such as UNICEF and with NGOs can provide greater push and visibility to this effort."
  - Skills and training:
    - "Greater efforts are needed to learn from the East Asian experiences with training, including stronger partnership with private sector in the design and implementation of training programmes including support for on-the-job training."
    - "Consultations with the various chambers of business and commerce on a training strategy and associated policies can be a useful first step."

*Source: _cr15305 - 1.07 nurses per 10,000 individuals, one of the lowest ratios in the world. Indeed, the MoHFW*

### CHAPTER 7

### CHAPTER 7  Poverty Reduction, Gender Empowerment, Social Inclusion and Social Protection

### A. Introduction
- The Sixth Plan‘s strategy for poverty reduction emphasizes Human Resource Development and higher‑income, higher productivity job creation as the two most important elements.
- The Sixth Plan recognizes that even with higher growth, better jobs and better access to essential services, some under‑privileged populations—including poor women and people from ethnic groups and socially excluded groups—will likely be left out.
- Substantial risks from natural disasters and climate change are highlighted for this vulnerable population.
- Strategy actions:
  - Design and implement a range of social protection programs that meet the needs of under‑privileged groups.
  - Review and reform existing programs to establish better targeting to ensure priority for the disabled, the elderly, the tribal population, and children and women at risk.
  - Strengthen underlying institutions supporting social protection.
  - Explore options to move towards contributory social protection schemes including participation by the private sector, given large financing needs.
  - Emphasize design of social protection programs that create assets and employment opportunities.
- Gender empowerment:
  - Establish equal opportunities for women in all sections of society to integrate them better into the social and economic sphere.
  - Recognize women as heterogeneous, with situations and needs varying by community, religion, and region.
  - Promote rights and entitlements of women while catering to differential and specific requirements to ensure equal access to political, economic and social space.

### B. Progress with Poverty Reduction — Objectives, Targets and Strategies
- The SFYP formulated a two‑dimensional poverty reduction goal:
  - Reduce poverty by creating productive jobs and income opportunities for the poor.
  - Reduce income inequalities (between regions, gender, occupation, ethnicity, etc.).
- Job creation focus:
  - Increase the rate of growth of the economy.
  - Improve the sectoral composition of growth.
  - Strengthen Human Resource Development.
- Additional channels to boost income opportunities for the poor:
  1) Boosting agricultural productivity.
  2) Facilitating and strengthening remittance flows.
  3) Expanding microcredits.

#### Agriculture Productivity
- Rationale:
  - Improving labor productivity in the agro‑sector would raise income for workers.
  - 47% of the labor market is employed in the agricultural sector.
  - HIES 2010 analysis showed increase in agricultural incomes was a major contributor to poverty reduction.
- SFYP measures:
  - Implement more pro‑poor agricultural policies and programmes, with special attention to lagging regions.
  - Facilitate the poor‘s access to factors of production and credit.
  - Distribute farm subsidies on water, fertilizer and seeds.
  - Undertake research and development in agriculture and support for agriculture marketing.

#### Remittances
- Role and targets:
  - Remittances account for an important share of GDP and have potential to raise wealth and assets of recipients.
  - SFYP aims to expand overseas labor markets, emphasizing migration in lagging regions and female migration.
  - Develop training courses for migrant workers to acquire high‑skilled and high‑income positions.
  - Enforce rules and regulations regarding labor migration to avoid exploitation.
  - Engage in policy discussion with host governments and local embassies to ensure male and female migrants are treated humanely and with dignity.
  - Reduce transaction costs of remittances with better banking services to make processes more efficient and transparent.

#### Microcredit
- Key SFYP actions:
  - Expand coverage of credit to more households through formal rural credits and microfinance institutions (MFIs).
  - Strengthen access and volume of microcredit in poverty prone areas to even out regional inequalities.
  - Improve borrower outcomes through skill development and access to information.
  - Scale up microcredit amounts for recipients who have proven ability to handle larger loans.

#### Implementation and Recent Performance
- Data limitations:
  - Lack of actual data based on HIES limits precise conclusions about poverty and employment impacts.
- Recent macro and sectoral performance (first three years of the Plan):
  - 6.4% average growth rate achieved.
  - 3.5% average growth in agricultural GDP.
  - These suggest that poverty has continued to fall.
  - Employment creation performed better than expected so far owing to very favorable labor absorption abroad.
  - Agricultural wages continued to increase positively in real terms.
  - One downward trend: much slower‑than‑planned growth in agricultural output.
- Conclusion:
  - Poverty has likely continued to fall, but the reduction in poverty may be less than projected in the Sixth Plan partly due to slower than planned growth in GDP and considerably slower growth in agricultural GDP.

### Key statistics and targets (Table 7.1: Progress with Poverty, 2010-13)
- Objective: Reduction in poverty, across all groups and regions.
- Performance Indicator: Poverty headcount rate with CBN method
  - Baseline (2010): 31.5%
  - Target by 2015: 22.5%
  - Current Status (2013): 26.3%
- Performance Indicator: Rate of growth of GDP
  - Baseline (2010): 6.1%
  - Target by 2015: 7.3% (Avg.)
  - Current Status (2013): 6.4%
- (Table entry for "Expansion of employment" is shown but no numeric values are provided in the excerpt.)

*Source: _cr15305 - CHAPTER 7*

### 10.4 million 6.1 million

### _cr15305 - 10.4 million 6.1 million

### Remittances and Employment
- Remittances have "continued to perform outstandingly."
- Government support measures under the Sixth Plan:
  - Authorization of 27 microfinance institutions and 28 banks through mobile banking to facilitate remittances.
- Job creation:
  - Number of jobs created in the first three years of the Sixth Plan: 2.0 million.
  - Projected employment (for same period): 1.2 million.
  - Comment: actual jobs "substantially exceeded" projected employment and is a major contributor to remittance growth.
- Topline figures shown in source header:
  - 10.4 million 6.1 million
  - Employment share of manufacturing: 12.0 % 15.7% 13.8
  - Rate of growth of agricultural GDP: 5.20% 4.3% 3.14 %
  - Growth of real wages in Agriculture: positive positive

### Microcredit and SME Finance
- Microcredit performance and reforms:
  - Rules for the Microcredit Regulatory Authority (MRA) developed in 2010 to supervise MFIs and protect borrowers and lenders.
  - In 2012, 135 new MFIs registered with the MRA.
  - In 2011, savings per borrowers had increase by 19%.
  - About 1,212 applications under process from microcredit related organizations for MRA registration.
  - Government provided microcredit financing through 272 partner organizations (NGOs).
  - Through the PKSF program about 8 million borrowers have received microcredit, of whom 91% are women.
  - Present outstanding loan from this partner organization: 3564 crore taka.
- SME financing:
  - Almost 700 billion BDT was distributed to SMEs, 15% of which went to women entrepreneurs.
- Financial inclusion and ICT:
  - Bangladesh Bank has taken a pro-active role to improve access to credit and financial services.
  - New financial instruments based on ICT are slowly changing the landscape of financial service access in rural and urban areas.

### Gender Empowerment — Objectives, Targets, Implementation
- Strategic approach in SFYP:
  - Mainstream gender into all sectoral interventions.
  - Remove biases against women in society, policies, programs, and institutions.
  - Political/legal, economic, and social empowerment strategies specified (see source for full enumerated strategies).
- Selected targets and progress (Table 7.2 excerpts):
  - Ratio of girls to boys in tertiary education: Baseline FY(2010) 32% — Target by FY2015 60% — Current Status (FY2013) 73%
  - Seats held by women in national parliament: Baseline 18.55% (2008) — Target by FY2015 33% — Current Status (FY2013) 25%
  - Ratio of literate females to males (percent of ages 20-24): Baseline 85% — Target by FY2015 100% — Current Status (FY2013) 86%
  - Share of women employed in the non-agricultural sector: Baseline 20% — Target by FY2015 50% — Current Status (FY2013) Not available
- Key achievements and gaps:
  - National Policy for Women‘s Advancement (NPWA) ratified in 2011 with 20 goals to empower women socially, legally, economically and politically.
  - Reserved parliament seats for women reintroduced in 2004 (45 seats) and increased to 50 in 2011; Bangladesh ranked 7th out of 136 countries for women political empowerment in WEF Gender Gap Report 2013.
  - Legal reforms addressing child marriage, acid throwing, violence against women, dowry introduced, but implementation remains the major challenge.
  - Female labor force participation rate (LFS 2010): 36%.
  - Only 53% of women receive equal pay for equal work.
  - Less than a third of senior officials and managers are women (source notes).
  - Domestic Violence (Prevention and Protection) Act of 2010 expanded definition of domestic violence to include physical, sexual, psychological and economic abuse.
  - Gender Responsive Budgeting (GRB) introduced in 2005; in FY13, 25 ministries undergoing GRB.

### Social Inclusion — Children, Ethnic Communities, Persons with Disabilities, Disadvantaged Groups
- Children — objectives and implementation:
  - Children make up 46% of the poor in Bangladesh.
  - SFYP focuses on child development, legal protection and rights with measures including disease control, nutrition increases, safe water and sanitation, early childhood development, and harmonizing laws against child abuse and trafficking.
  - Key legislation: National Child Labor Elimination Policy 2010; National Children Policy adopted 2011; Children Act of 2013 (defines children as under age 18).
  - Ongoing programs: "Services for Children at Risk", "Child Sensitive Social Protection in Bangladesh", Child-Helpline, 250 Community-based Child Protection Committees, 7 Integrated Child Protection Service Centers.
  - Remaining challenges: slow change in child labor and harmful norms due to weak enforcement and low public awareness; education quality and nutrition remain constraints.
- Ethnic communities — objectives and implementation:
  - 45 different small ethnic communities making up around 2 million people, many among the extreme poor.
  - SFYP strategies include implementing the 1997 Chittagong Hill Tracks (CHT) accord, expanding non-farm income opportunities, microcredit with vocational training, sustainable tourism, HRD tailored to ethnic needs, national language policy, expanding power grid access, preferential access to social protection, and legal protections including ILO Convention 1969 and UN Declaration on Rights of Indigenous Peoples 2007.
  - Progress includes transferring 5 new institute functions under Hill District Council authority and THNPP within HPNSDP to provide ethnic-sensitive health, nutrition and population services; recognition in education policy to teach in mother tongue. Land disputes remain central and legal/political empowerment is still lagging.
- Persons with Disabilities (PWD) — objectives and implementation:
  - UN Convention on Rights of Persons with Disabilities and Beijing Proclamation ratified; National Disability Action Plan (5-year) in 2006 implemented.
  - SFYP strategic actions across education, health, inclusion and governance (see source for detailed enumerated actions).
  - FY12 Disability Detection Survey conducted to map location, number and type of PWD.
  - Programs and institutions: Integrated Education Program for the Visually Impaired, hostel for visually impaired children, expansion of PROYASH, 35 one-stop centers for physically challenged persons, mobile physiotherapy centers for rural PWD.
  - 2013 Disable Persons Protection and Rights Act ratified; law bans discrimination and prescribes fines and imprisonment; establishes a national committee.
  - Remaining gaps: high health service costs for households with a PWD, limited education support and incentives, weak enforcement of laws.
- Disadvantaged and excluded populations:
  - Recognized groups include "dhopa, muchi, napit, and other traditional low caste people".
  - SFYP strategies: cooperate with local bodies and NGOs to identify and include disadvantaged people; priority in khas land allocation; encourage tea garden owners to assign land to extreme poor workers; improve coordination among government functionaries.
  - Implementation constraints: weak public administrative capacity and absence of strong local governments; National Social Security Strategy (NSSS) emphasizes bringing marginalized groups under social protection.

### Social Protection — Current SPS, Issues, and Proposed NSSS
- Historical and budget context:
  - Allocation for Social Protection Programmes (SPPs) increased from 1.3 percent of GDP in 1998 to 2.2 percent in FY2010.
  - Sixth Plan sought to increase spending from 2.2% of GDP in FY10 to 3.0% of GDP by FY15.
  - Spending evolution: increased to 2.5% of GDP in FY11, fell to 2.3% in FY12, and further to 2.2% in FY13.
- Current SPS composition and performance:
  - Official compilation lists 95 programmes under the social protection system financed through the budget.
  - Total amount spent on these programmes in FY13: Tk 231 billion, equivalent to 2.2 percent of GDP.
  - Programmes administered by as many as 30 line ministries/agencies with no formal information-sharing mechanism.
  - Coverage and targeting issues:
    - In 2010, of the 24.5 percent of households reporting benefitting from at least one of the 30 SPPs covered in the HIES, 82 percent of beneficiaries belonged to the poor and vulnerable group while 18 percent were non-poor.
    - 64 percent of the poor did not have access to any SSP.
  - Benefit adequacy and focus:
    - Average benefit per individual is low due to proliferation of programmes with small budgets.
    - Coverage for children aged 0-4 is "almost insignificant" despite high under-nutrition rates.
    - Small proportion of people with disabilities and elderly persons receive benefits.
    - Dominance of food-transfer and rural employment programmes in participation and funding.
- Structural shortcomings:
  - Proliferation of programmes leading to thin budgets per programme.
  - Absence of effective monitoring and evaluation (M&E) and no formal national mechanism for SPS performance review.
  - Changing economic landscape — aspiration to be a middle-income country by 2021; per capita annual income has crossed the US$ 1000 mark — requires SPS reassessment to meet emerging risks as formal employment, modern manufacturing and organized services expand.
- Proposed National Social Security Strategy (NSSS) — core elements:
  - Streamline and strengthen existing safety net programs to achieve better value for money.
  - Broaden scope from narrow safety net concept to include employment policies and social insurance appropriate for a middle-income Bangladesh.
  - Define life-cycle risks and institute a well-designed income transfer system targeting poorest and most vulnerable (young children, school-going children, vulnerable women, elderly, physically challenged).
  - Modernize administration by:
    - Consolidating complementary programmes.
    - Strengthening staffing and institutions.
    - Instituting a modern MIS system.
    - Replacing food-based transfers with cash-based payments using a financial sector based G2P (government to people) system.
    - Introducing a grievance redressing mechanism.
    - Installing a results-based M&E system.
  - Expected outcomes from NSSS implementation: eliminate leakages, improve targeting, increase average transfer values, lower risks for poor and vulnerable, reduce poverty, reduce income inequality and build social capital.
- Implementation challenge:
  - Successful implementation of the NSSS is a "fundamental challenge for the remaining years of the Sixth Plan and beyond."

*Source: _cr15305 - 10.4 million 6.1 million (excerpt).*

### CHAPTER 8

### CHAPTER 8 Progress with Sustainable Development: Environment, Climate Change and Disaster Management

### A. Introduction
- Bangladesh ranked by Maplecroft (2012) as the second most vulnerable country in the world to climate change.
- Key national responses:
  - Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP).
  - Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund established using domestic resources.
  - Sixth Five Year Plan (SFYP) and the Perspective Plan commit to integrating climate change, disaster risk reduction, and environmental management into development planning.
- Short-term progress expected to be reflected mainly in policies, adoption programmes, and institutional initiation; SFYP identified intermediate quantitative indicators to measure progress.

### B. Environmental Change Management: Sixth Plan Targets and Performance
- Core SFYP targets (selected):
  - Increase productive forest coverage by 2 percentage points.
  - Territorial coverage of protected area increased to 5% including Community Conservation Area (CCA) and Ecologically Critical Area (ECA).
  - Improve air quality in Dhaka and other large cities and enact Clean Air Act.
  - Treat all urban waste water by FY15 to clean river waters.
  - Promote Zero discharge of industrial effluents.
  - Urban wetlands restored and protected in line with Wetland Conservation Act.
  - At least 10% of the wetland in peak dry season is protected as aquatic sanctuary.
  - Jolmahal leasing system phased out in favour of pro-poor community based management.
  - Regeneration and aforestation of 25,000 hectares of fresh water swamp forest in haor basin.
  - Risk Atlas for at least 7 cities/towns developed by 2015.
  - 500 meter wide permanent green belt established and protected along the coast.
  - Eco-tourism promoted at least in 15 protected areas and ECAs.
  - Comprehensive Marine Resources Management Plan developed.
  - Land zoning for sustainable land/water use completed.
  - Environmental, Climate Change and disaster risk reduction considerations integrated into project design, budgetary allocations and implementation process.
  - Canals and natural water flows of Dhaka and other major cities restored.
  - Increase energy efficiency by 10%.

- Performance indicators and data (as presented in Table 8.1):
  - Hectare of forest coverage (%) — Baseline (2010): 13.14; Actual Data 2011/2012: 13.14; FY13 (Est.): -- ; SFYP (FY15) target: 15
  - KM of waterways navigable year round — Baseline (2010): 3800 km; Actual Data 2011/2012: 3805 km (June 2011); FY13 (Est.): -- ; SFYP (FY15) target: 3910 km
  - Productive forest area (%) (70 % tree density) — Baseline (2005-2010): 13; Actual Data 2011/2012: -- ; FY13 (Est.): -- ; SFYP (FY15) target: 15
  - Consumption of Ozone Depleting Substances (in ODP tons) — Baseline (2010): 72.6; Actual Data 2011/2012: 77; FY13 (Est.): 72.6; SFYP (FY15) target: 65.34
  - Proportion of terrestrial and marine areas protected (%) — Baseline (2005-2010): 1.7; Actual Data 2011/2012: 2.29; FY13 (Est.): -- ; SFYP (FY15) target: 5
  - CO2 emissions (tones per capita) — Baseline (2005): 0.25; Actual Data 2011/2012: - ; FY13 (Est.): 0.34; SFYP (FY15) target: 0.38

- Observations on targets and data:
  - Forest coverage: Baseline 13.14% (2010) — SFYP target 15% by 2015 appears feasible; no FY13 data provided by Department of Forest.
  - Waterways: June 2011 figure 3805 km — likely to achieve SFYP target 3910 km but requires significant effort.
  - Tree cover density: Department of Forest reports 19.42 percent of land with tree cover density of 10 percent and above; spatial area closer to Government target (20 percent) but density far below the productive forest target (>70 percent).
  - Ozone Depleting Substances: Major ODSs include CFC11, CFC12, CTC, HCFC22, and HCFC141b; country in compliance with Montreal Protocol obligations.
  - Protected areas: Current proportion 2.29 percent vs target 5 percent.
  - CO2 emissions: total carbon emission was 33.23 tonnes in 2001 and 37.17 tonnes in 2005; per capita 0.26 tonnes (2001) and 0.25 tonnes (2005); increase of 0.35 percent per year noted; 2007 emission 0.30 tonnes per capita; expected to go up to 0.38 tonnes in 2015.

### C. Progress With Environmental and Climate Change Policies and Institutions
- Environment sector institutional and legal progress:
  - National Environment Council (headed by the Prime Minister) activated; environment committees at Division, District and Upazila levels activated.
  - Department of Environment (DOE) enhanced capacity: head office, six Divisional offices, two Metropolitan offices; 21 new district offices and 468 new positions created; DOE manpower increased to 735.
  - Drafting of EIA guidelines for all sectors under the Conservation Act (ECA) 1995.
  - Review and redrafting of sectoral legislations in light of international conventions and protocols.
  - Adoption of 'Polluters Pay Principle' (intended to ensure compliance).
  - Consideration of incentives (tax-rebate, tax-holiday, subsidies).
  - Establishment of 'National Environment Fund'.
  - Environmental Impact Assessment required for processing development projects needing Government approval.
  - Efforts to mainstream poverty-environment-climate nexus into project design, budgeting, implementation and monitoring.

- Climate change policy instruments and institutional steps:
  - Pro-poor Climate Change Management strategy adopted prioritizing adaptation and disaster risk reduction, and addressing low carbon development, mitigation, technology transfer, and mobilization of international finance.
  - Key climate instruments developed: NAPA (2005), Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (2009), Climate Change Unit (CCU) established, Climate Trust Fund created.
  - MoEF serves as operational focal point for UNFCCC and GEF; active in global climate negotiations (including on behalf of LDCs and as a member of G-77 and China).
  - CSOs/NGOs, private sector and development partners play roles in climate response.

- Legislation enacted (selected):
  - 2010 Amendment to the Bangladesh Environment Conservation Act, 1995.
  - Environment Court Act 2010.
  - The Brick Manufacture and Brick Kiln Installation (Control) Act, 2013.
  - Hazardous Waste and Ship Breaking Waste Management Rules, 2011.
  - Bangladesh Biosafety Rules, 2012.
  - Guideline on Environmental Management, Waste Treatment and Worker‘s Occupational Health and Safety for Ship Breaking Yard, 2011.

- Draft or in-process laws and rules:
  - Bangladesh Biological Diversity Act, 2013 (Draft Final).
  - Proposed amendment to Environment Conservation Rules, 1997.
  - Solid Waste Management Rules, 2013.
  - Ecologically Critical Area Management Rules, 2014 (Draft Final).
  - E-waste Rules, 2013 (1st Draft).
  - Stone Extraction Guidelines 2014 (Draft Final).

- Implementation constraints:
  - Incentive policies (polluter-pays-principle, taxes and subsidies) largely remain intentions rather than actively implemented.
  - MoEF capacities remain severely constrained; monitoring of illegal logging is a serious problem.

### D. Financing for Environment and Forestry (Table 8.3 data)
- Fiscal data for Ministry of Environment and Forestry (as presented):
  - FY09 — GDP (TK bl): 6149; Budget (TK bl): 893; Budget (% of GDP): 14.52; Environment & Forestry Budget (Tk ml): 226; Environment & Forestry Budget (% of total budget): 0.25; Environment & Forestry budget (as % of GDP): 0.04
  - FY10 — GDP (TK bl): 6906; Budget (TK bl): 1015; Budget (% of GDP): 14.70; Environment & Forestry Budget (Tk ml): 820; Environment & Forestry Budget (% of total budget): 0.81; Environment & Forestry budget (as % of GDP): 0.12
  - FY11 — GDP (TK bl): 7875; Budget (TK bl): 1283; Budget (% of GDP): 16.29; Environment & Forestry Budget (Tk ml): 1,116; Environment & Forestry Budget (% of total budget): 0.87; Environment & Forestry budget (as % of GDP): 0.14
  - FY12 — GDP (TK bl): 9148; Budget (TK bl): 1524; Budget (% of GDP): 16.66; Environment & Forestry Budget (Tk ml): 1,235; Environment & Forestry Budget (% of total budget): 0.81; Environment & Forestry budget (as % of GDP): 0.14
  - FY13 R — GDP (TK bl): 1,0380; Budget (TK bl): 1893; Budget (% of GDP): 18.24; Environment & Forestry Budget (Tk ml): 910; Environment & Forestry Budget (% of total budget): 0.48; Environment & Forestry budget (as % of GDP): 0.09
  - FY14 P — GDP (TK bl): 1,1888; Budget (TK bl): 2225; Budget (% of GDP): 18.72; Environment & Forestry Budget (Tk ml): 797; Environment & Forestry Budget (% of total budget): 0.36; Environment & Forestry budget (as % of GDP): 0.07
- Observations:
  - Budgetary resources for environmental and climate change management are generally small and have fallen as a share of GDP.
  - Donor funding for adaptation is available but fragmented and often does not support capacity creation or large-scale projects (e.g., river restoration, lower delta vulnerability reduction).
  - Recommendation implied: combine regulations, incentives, capacity development and visible high-impact projects in a strategic environmental and climate finance rethink.

### E. Disaster Management: Strategy, Targets, Implementation and Financing
- Disaster vulnerability context:
  - Bangladesh is low-lying and prone to natural disasters (floods, earthquakes, storms) that disrupt food supply, cause environmental damage and affect livelihoods.
  - Notable public policy success: sharp reduction in loss of lives and injuries owing to early warning systems, dissemination, shelters, relief supplies, disease prevention, and development of climate resilient crop varieties.

- Sixth Plan Disaster Management Strategy highlights:
  - Paradigm shift from conventional response/relief to comprehensive risk reduction culture.
  - National Disaster Management Plan (NDMP 2010-15) developed and implemented.
  - Bangladesh Disaster Management Model comprises Disaster Risk Reduction and Emergency Response.
  - Three broad strategies emphasized:
    - Manage both risk and consequences of disasters (prevention, emergency response, post-disaster recovery).
    - Community involvement and local government bodies' role; self-reliance for preparedness, response and recovery.
    - Prioritize non-structural mitigation measures and integrate structural and non-structural measures.

- DRF targets for disaster management:
  - Increase number of usable cyclone centers to 5,352 from base year 2,852 in 2010.
  - Increase number of rural communities with disaster resilient habitats and community assets to 300 by 2015 from 90 in 2010.

- Performance indicators and data (Table 8.4):
  - Number of usable cyclone shelters — Baseline data (2010): 2,852; Actual Data 2011/2012: 3,286; SFYP (FY15) target: 5,352
  - No of rural communities with disaster resilient habitats and community assets — Baseline data (2010): 90; Actual Data 2011/2012: 92; SFYP (FY15) target: 300

- Progress with policies and institutions:
  - National Plan for Disaster Management 2010, Standing Order on Disasters, National Plan for Disaster Management are current frameworks.
  - Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP) launched (collaboration between Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief and UNDP); CDMP 2 launched in 2011 integrating climate risk management (CRM) into DRR.
  - Disaster Management Bill 2012 passed by Parliament producing a Disaster Management Act to facilitate coordinated, objective-driven disaster management and community accountability.

- Achievements of CDMP (2009-13) (Table 8.5):
  - Disaster management courses introduced in 15 public and private universities and 11 training institutes.
  - Earthquake drills conducted in 70,000 primary and secondary schools.
  - Micro-zonation map prepared for Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet.
  - Health crisis management center established for post-disaster emergency care.
  - Flood forecasting timeline extended from 3 days to 5 days.
  - Trained 20,000 volunteers in cities.
  - Re-trained 38,000 CPP volunteers and trained 6,540 new CPP volunteers.
  - Introduced interactive voice response system (IVR) (Dial 10941) to provide weather and disaster forecasting services via mobile phone.

- Financing for Disaster Management (Table 8.6 data):
  - Fiscal data for Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief:
    - FY09 — GDP (TK bl): 6149; Budget (TK bl): 893; Budget (% of GDP): 14.52; Disaster Mtg & Relief Budget: - ; Disaster Mtg & Relief Budge t(% of Total budget): - ; Disaster Mtg &Relief budget(as % of GDP): -
    - FY10 — GDP (TK bl): 6906; Budget (TK bl): 1015; Budget (% of GDP): 14.70; Disaster Mtg & Relief Budget (Tk ml): 3,823; Disaster Mtg & Relief Budget (% of total budget): 3.77; Disaster Mtg &Relief budget(as % of GDP): 0.55
    - FY11 — GDP (TK bl): 7875; Budget (TK bl): 1283; Budget (% of GDP): 16.29; Disaster Mtg & Relief Budget (Tk ml): 3,237; Disaster Mtg & Relief Budget (% of total budget): 2.52; Disaster Mtg &Relief budget(as % of GDP): 0.41
    - FY12 — GDP (TK bl): 9148; Budget (TK bl): 1524; Budget (% of GDP): 16.66; Disaster Mtg & Relief Budget (Tk ml): 4,283; Disaster Mtg & Relief Budget (% of total budget): 2.81; Disaster Mtg &Relief budget(as % of GDP): 0.47
    - FY13 R — GDP (TK bl): 1,0380; Budget (TK bl): 1893; Budget (% of GDP): 18.24; Disaster Mtg & Relief Budget (Tk ml): 5,856; Disaster Mtg & Relief Budget (% of total budget): 3.09; Disaster Mtg &Relief budget(as % of GDP): 0.56
    - FY14 P — GDP (TK bl): 1,1888; Budget (TK bl): 2225; Budget (% of GDP): 18.72; Disaster Mtg & Relief Budget (Tk ml): 6,522; Disaster Mtg & Relief Budget (% of total budget): 2.93; Disaster Mtg &Relief budget(as % of GDP): 0.55
  - Observations:
    - Budget allocation stable at around 0.5% of GDP.
    - Large additional funding occurs through current budget relief spending and employment guarantee programmes under social protection.
    - Overall resources considered reasonable for program implementation.

### F. Conclusion and the Way Forward
- Achievements and strengths:
  - Bangladesh is one of the most proactive LDCs on climate change, building national scientific expertise and government actions on environmental sustainability.
  - Disaster management programmes have performed well, yielding substantial reductions in loss of life from natural disasters.

- Remaining challenges:
  - Implementation of environmental and climate policies remains uneven; institutional capacities (especially MoEF) are constrained.
  - Large unfinished agenda in environmental management and climate change requiring focused, results-oriented strategy.
  - Need for long-term planning and substantial public investment to build resilience and minimize adverse impacts on livelihoods (Bangladesh Delta Plan-2100 Formulation Project noted as a contribution).

- Recommended strategic directions (implied by SFYP analysis):
  - Adopt a focused, results-oriented strategy combining policies, regulations, incentives, investment, and capacity building.
  - Integrate climate-proofing into Bangladesh's development strategy through an integrated approach.
  - Develop a specific results framework with monitorable indicators of progress for climate proofing.

*Source: CHAPTER 8, _cr15305 - CHAPTER 8*

### CHAPTER 9

### CHAPTER 9 — Progress with Governance and Institutions

### A. Introduction
- The Sixth Plan emphasized that without fundamental reforms of core institutions, improvement in public administration capacity, and a strong anti-corruption strategy, the ability to implement Vision 2021 and the underlying 5 year development plans will be seriously compromised.
- These challenges are recognized as long-term and requiring long-term coordinated and sustained efforts.

### B. Sixth Plan Strategy for Governance Improvement and Development of Institutions
- Governance improvement is linked to establishing strong institutions; the Sixth Plan prioritizes immediate attention in key areas:
  - continued efforts to ensuring equality of opportunity and full mobility for all with freedom and dignity, and without religious, social or political barriers;
  - review of the national laws and their proper implementation by strengthening the law enforcement agencies and the judiciary;
  - priority to implementation of E-governance through the `Digital Bangladesh` initiative in all government offices and at all district levels to provide better and speedier service, and to improve the transparency and accountability of public service agencies;
  - focus on developing and strengthening core public institutions including the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance, the Tax Department, the Planning Commission, Audits and Accounts, the parliamentary sub-committees, land administration, and the public utilities; emphasis on improving service delivery in education, health, population, nutrition and water supply;
  - emphasis on strengthening public administrative capacity;
  - implement the medium-term budgetary framework in all line ministries and institute and implement an effective Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Framework for public programs;
  - reduce corruption in public services and take appropriate actions when corruption happens, ensuring a fair and transparent process as envisaged under the law.

- The strategy for capacity and institution development consists of four pillars:
  - strengthening the civil service;
  - promoting devolution to local governments;
  - strengthening public-private partnerships (PPP);
  - reforming planning and budgetary processes.

- Civil service reform basic features:
  - merit-based recruitment and promotion;
  - strong training;
  - ensuring a proper incentive and work environment;
  - establishing and enforcing clear rules of business and codes of conduct;
  - seeking feedback on performance through a citizen‘s charter.

- Local government strategy:
  - institute strong elected local governments with adequate financial autonomy and accountability for results;
  - progressively decentralize delivery responsibilities for irrigation, district roads, education, health, population management, water and sanitation services.

- Public-private partnerships and NGO collaboration:
  - strengthen PPP arrangements for electricity and roads on the basis of a well defined policy and legal framework;
  - explore PPP opportunities in social sectors;
  - build on collaboration with NGOs in delivery of health, education and micro-credit services.

- Planning and budgetary reforms:
  - implement a Medium Term Budgetary Framework (MTBF) to replace incremental budgeting;
  - shift from public-investment focused plans to more strategic and indicative planning emphasizing strategies, programs and policies for the entire economy;
  - better link medium-term development plans to the MTBF by making the plan a living document with review of performance.

- Specific actions to improve planning and budgetary processes:
  - (i) Annual performance review will focus on implementation of strategies and policies and broad economy-wide and sectoral outcomes; results used to determine changes in plan goals, targets, strategies and policies.
  - (ii) Strengthen capacities of line ministries for planning and budgeting in the context of MTBF; ensure proposed projects and programs are consistent with Sixth Plan objectives and framework.
  - (iii) Strengthen and streamline the project approval process; require proper appraisal reports showing consistency and relevance to sectoral/economy-wide objectives, strategies and policies.
  - (iv) Review all approved and active projects in the pipeline with line Ministries to clean out dormant or irrelevant projects and help close projects facing implementation problems through restructuring or other interventions.
  - (v) Substantially strengthen technical capacities of the Ministry of Finance, the Planning Commission, IMED and BBS through proper staffing and training to ensure timely implementation of the Sixth Plan and the MTBF.

### Implementation of Governance and Institutional Challenges
- The Results Framework (RF) for SFYP proposed governance indicators to objectively assess governance; initial implementation reviews identified drawbacks:
  - indicators suffered from lack of availability of data;
  - indicators were narrow in scope;
  - indicators did not provide a benchmark for comparative analysis;
  - indicators did not provide any assessment of the state of economic governance.
- Analytical work produced a revised set of governance indicators included in the Proposed Results Framework (Table 9.1 variables preserved in source).
- The revised RF assessment will provide a benchmark supplemented by review of policies and institutional progress emphasized under the Sixth Plan.

### C. Progress with Democratic Governance
- Revised RF includes three parliamentary indicators:
  - Numbers of Bills passed per year
  - Average parliamentary attendance
  - Proportion of Elected Female Representatives

- Key findings and statistics:
  - Average Number of Bills Passed per year:
    - Base-line: 37 (8th National Parliament)
    - Latest: 54 (9th National Parliament)
  - Average Parliamentary Attendance:
    - Base-line: 57% (8th National Parliament)
    - Latest: 58% (9th National Parliament {First Fifteen Session})
  - Proportion of Elected Representatives Female:
    - Base-line: 2% (8th National Parliament)
    - Latest: 6% (9th National Parliament)
  - The 9th Parliament witnessed entry of 19 female MPs through direct elections—historic relative to prior parliaments where no more than 8 MPs were female.
  - Opposition boycott of parliament has been substantial and growing:
    - Boycotted Ratio:
      - Fifth (1991-96): 43% of total working days
      - Sixth(1996-2001): 41% of total working days
      - Eight(2001-2006): 60% of total working days
      - Ninth (2009-): 92% of total working days {First Fifteen Session}

- Observations:
  - Increase in average bills passed per year from 37 to 54 between 8th and 9th parliaments is notable.
  - High rates of opposition boycott (up to 92% in early 9th Parliament sessions) limit parliament‘s capacity as a venue for consensus formation.
  - Trend of increasing direct female representation is encouraging; quota provisions have aided representation (Table 9.4 preserved in source).

### Economic Governance
- Revised RF economic indicators:
  - Percent of Gross NPL in Public Banks
  - Income Tax as a % GDP

- Key statistics:
  - Percent of Gross NPL in Public Banks:
    - Base-line Year (FY10): 14.08
    - Latest Figures (Sept 2013): 28.8
  - Income Tax as a % GDP:
    - Base-line Year (FY10): 2.9
    - Latest Figures (2013): 3.4

- Findings:
  - Sharp deterioration in percent of Gross NPLs in public banks—rose from 14.08 to 28.8—identified as very worrisome.
  - Public bank performance declined notably since December 2011, linked to forgery and corrupt lending practices (e.g., Hallmark scam involving Sonali Bank and other instances).
  - Recommended further steps include:
    - assigning full supervision responsibility of public banks to the Bangladesh Bank;
    - corporatizing the public banks;
    - instituting a system of performance based management including the board of directors.
  - Income tax performance shows some progress (2.9 to 3.4 percent of GDP) but remains well below potential; HIES 2010 indicates some 35% of the national income is in the hands of 10% of the population.
  - Full application of tax laws should result in tax yields from income tax in the range of 6-7% of GDP.
  - Tax Modernization Plan adoption is encouraging but implementation has been slow. Areas for progress:
    - proper incorporation of capital gains in the tax net;
    - introducing a broad-based and effective property tax;
    - carefully assessing and limiting tax exemptions to ensure a fair and equitable tax system.

### Justice and Human Rights
- Revised RF justice indicators include:
  - Case Disposal Rate {Civil} (%)
  - Case Disposal Rate {Criminal} (%)
  - Weighted Average National Disposal Rate (%)
  - Case backlogs in the formal justice system (lower and upper judiciary)

- Key statistics (Table 9.6):
  - Case Disposal Rate {Civil}:
    - 7.91 {2011}
    - 8.23 {2012}
  - Case Disposal Rate {Criminal}:
    - 42.98 {2011}
    - 42.33 {2012}
  - Weighted Average National Disposal Rate:
    - 33.34 {2011}
    - 32.24 {2012}
  - Case backlogs in the formal justice system (lower and upper judiciary):
    - 1.8 million  (2010)
    - 2.7 million  (May 2013)

- Findings:
  - The justice system shows sluggish performance, particularly in civil case disposal (under 9% in 2011 and 2012), implying civil litigations can take on average twelve years to resolve.
  - Criminal case disposal is considerably faster than civil.
  - Case backlog increased by 0.9 million between 2010 and May 2013, reaching approximately 2.7 million.
  - Overall disposal rates in Bangladesh are weaker than in neighboring India for both civil and criminal cases.

### D. Progress with Policies
- Government policy efforts reflect commitment to reduce corruption, improve accountability, reduce rent-seeking opportunities, and create the basis for equitable distribution of resources and opportunities.
- The policy reform track record is described as quite impressive; main challenge is implementation, partly due to weak administrative capacities.
- The Sixth Plan recognizes this implementation challenge and outlines a solid strategy for progress across governance and institutional reforms.

*Source: CHAPTER 9 — Progress with Governance and Institutions (Proposed Results Framework and supporting text from the Sixth Plan).*

### Box 9.1: Governance Achievements to Date

### Box 9.1: Governance Achievements to Date

### Recent governance achievements
- Implementing Digital Bangladesh, a wide-ranging set of initiatives to greatly expand the Government‘s use of ICT to improve efficiency and effectiveness.
- Safeguarding electoral democracy through ensuring a strong, independent Election Commission which has overseen free, fair, competitive elections at national and multiple local levels.
- Developing a national identification system and cards which eases transactions for citizens.
- Streamlining and simplifying institutions (establishments, conventions and rules and regulations), eliminating administrative barriers, deregulating bureaucratic procedures.
- Developing one-stop services, modernizing administration through regulatory reforms.
- Increasing transparency and accountability in the budget and procurement processes, government auditing, and customs and tax administration.
- Improving the ability of elected local government to contribute to local development and to be responsive to citizens‘ needs and priorities, including through an enhanced transfer system and reinstituting elected government at the upazila level.
- Working with the business community to implement codes of conduct and undertake deregulation and legal/procedural reform.
- Building a coalition with the media, and civil society and the private sector to strengthen their role as watchdog and also undertake public awareness campaigns and advocacy programs.
- Establishing a framework to counter prevention of money laundering and financing of terrorism.
- Establishing and operating a legal framework to counter corruption through national and international channels, including joining and regularly reporting on the UN Convention Against Corruption (UNCAC).
- Introducing the ‘Citizen Charter‘ by the ministries and agencies to enhance accountability.
- Passage of a strong Right to Information Act in 2009.
- Implementing the Community Radio Installation Broadcast and Operation Policy to ensure empowerment and Right to Information for rural people/communities.
- Declaring the Newspaper as Service Industry to help newspapers flourish with all facilities of an industry.
- Initiating the `Bangladesh Journalists welfare Trust Act 2013‘ to ensure overall welfare of journalists.
- Mass Media sector under the supervision, guidance and directives of the Ministry of Information is playing a significant role in disseminating information related to public welfare and development.
- Mass Media under the Ministry of Information has been contributing to development and nurturing national history, heritage and culture.
- Launched massive awareness for development of women and children issues under the project “Advocacy and Communication for Children, by the Ministry of Information” which helped change age-old superstition and negative attitude.

### Access to Information (A2I) Programme — policy and scope
- Policy Intervention: ICT Policy Act 2009; ICT Act 2010; Sixth Five Year Plan (SFYP); Cyber Security Policy 2010; Public Private Partnership Policy and Guidelines 2010; Broadband Policy; National Strategy Paper on m-Governance; Guidelines for Utility Bill Payment; e-Krishi Policy; Health Policy; Education Policy; National Telecom Policy 2010; Right to Information Act 2009; Mobile Banking Policy Guidance.

### National Portal Framework (NPF)
- Objectives: (i) impart ICT skills to government officials, (ii) bring all public websites and their information under a single architecture, adhering to a common design in terms of content and structure.
- NPF offers public information in Bangla covering agriculture, health, education, law and human rights, tourism and history, human resources, development & engineering, environment & disaster management.
- At the dawn of 2013, all Deputy Commissioners and Upazila Nirbahi Officers (UNO) have acquired the technical skills required in keeping the web contents of the portals updated, thus eliminating dependence on external vendors.
- NPF has become the trendsetter in demonstrating how government contents are to be published, maintained and updated online by government officers themselves.

### District e-Service Centres (DeSCs)
- DeSCs, located at the Deputy Commissioner‘s (DC) office, were inaugurated across 64 districts on 14 November 2011.
- As of May 2012, DC officers disposed 809,219 applications.
- 389,423 land records delivered against 758,153 received applications.
- Average time to take decision reduced from 7 days to 1-2 days.

### ICT in Education
- Multimedia classrooms established in 500 schools with an aim to engage 15,200 secondary schools and 5,300 Madrasas within 2013.
- 4500 teachers and more than 400 teacher trainers have already been provided with coaching, with more 20,500 to be trained by 2013.
- More than 300 books of primary and secondary schools are available in electronic format including technical, vocational and Madrassah schooling.
- 33 videos of model classrooms have been developed and disseminated together with the development of thousands of blogs and other digital contents.

### Union Information and Service Centre (UISC)
- Top services include government forms, examination results, livelihood information, birth and death registration, mobile banking, provision of internet, computer training, etc.
- 1 per cent of Annual Development Programme (ADP) is invested by the government together with funding from the DC offices for entrepreneur training, workshop and mobilization.
- 4,501 UISCs are already in operation with 9,002 entrepreneurs, 50 per cent women, being self-employed.

### Jatiyo e-Tathyakosh
- Jatiyo e-tathyakosh represents the largest collection of Bangla language content.
- It is a national information portal involving 320 organizations from government, local and international NGOs and private organizations, accessible through UISCs in both online and offline versions.
- By facilitating spread of development knowledge to millions, the e-Tathyakosh has significantly enhanced impact of valuable information and materials collected and developed by public and private sector actors.
- The e-Tathyakosh is expected to contribute toward improving the standard and quality of life for all citizens, empowering society with knowledge as part of the ‘Digital Bangladesh‘ Vision.

### e-Purjee
- E-Purjee can be collected from any UISCs located near sugarcane producers.
- An approximate 200,000 sugarcane producers are benefitting from the e-Purjee service.
- 18,000 e-Purjees are sent on average through SMS and published at the websites from 15 state-owned sugar mills to the cane farmers.
- With an online portal showing updates on issuance of the digital Purjee, real time statistics on cane producing and crushing and SMS feedback from farmers, none of the state-owned sugar mills experienced ‘no cane hour‘ since 2010.

### Planning and Budgeting
- MTBF implementation is well underway and steady progress is being made.
- Progress in strengthening the link between planning and budgeting through the Sixth Plan and Annual Development Programmes; ADPs are now much better linked to Sixth Plan strategies and targets and to the MTBF of line Ministries.

### Results-based Monitoring and Evaluation
- Commendable progress in introducing results-based M&E at the macroeconomic level as advocated by the Sixth Plan.
- The First Implementation Review of the Sixth Plan was done in July 2012 using a quantitative results framework. The mid-term review has now also been done.
- Efforts underway to institutionalize arrangements at GED for periodic results-based M&E at macroeconomic and sectoral levels.
- Lagging area: results-based monitoring at the project-specific level. IMED continues to focus on physical and financial aspects of project implementation; a results-based approach to project level M&E remains to be adopted.

### Progress with Institutions
- Civil service reforms:
  - A civil service act has been drafted and is waiting Cabinet approval.
  - Draft civil service award policy has been formulated.
  - Competitive recruitment process helping attract better-quality talents.
  - On-the-job and specialized training improving performance; focus on strengthening public administration training centers.
  - E-filing introduced and piloted in the career wing of the Ministry of Public Administration.
  - Retirement age raised by two years, from 57 to 59; an additional position of senior secretary created.
  - A Pay Commission constituted to improve pay scales.
  - Remaining needs: institute performance-based promotion, more systematic and periodic training, attract and retain civil servants in specialized areas such as economic management, tax planning, financial management, project management and results-based M&E.
- Local government institutions (LGIs):
  - Good progress in instituting elected local governments.
  - Efforts to institute district level budgets and assign greater responsibility to LGIs for basic services such as health and education.
  - Training manuals for LGI staff developed and some training underway.
  - Major gaps: financial accountability and capacity to raise resources due to absence of sound fiscal decentralization; heavy dependence on Government transfers for staff financing and routine functions; development projects dependent on Government transfers; overall severe budget constraint and lack of quality staff.
  - High-priority institutional agenda requires substantial attention from highest government levels.
- Partnership with NGOs:
  - Strong tradition of partnership with world-class NGOs; outreach in education, health, training, women‘s empowerment, micro-credits, climate change and social protection continues under the Sixth Plan.
  - Government established partnerships with private research institutions to strengthen macroeconomic management and policy making, supporting strategy and policy formulation in banking, tax policy, planning, trade policy, poverty analysis, social protection and regional cooperation.

### Concluding observations and future priorities
- The Sixth Plan‘s culture of introducing results-based M&E is a major step forward for better governance.
- Progress in e-governance, the RTI, elected local governments, and the MTBF indicate Government commitment to improve governance over the longer term; progress on governance indicators shows mixed results.
- Strengthening the judicial process for faster disposal of civil and criminal cases requires particular attention.
- Priorities for the future include:
  - Further strengthening of the democratic governance process to ensure full participation of all citizens and sound functioning of democratic institutions.
  - Strengthening of the LGIs based on a well defined legal framework that assigns responsibilities along with commensurate financial autonomy.
  - Strengthening of civil services with the institution of merit based promotion and improved incentives in terms of remuneration and training facilities to attract deficient skills.
  - Financial and legal support to the judiciary to strengthen capacity for faster disposal of civil and criminal cases.
  - Urgent reform of public banks to stop malpractices in terms of bad lending decisions.
  - Stronger implementation of the Tax Modernization Project with special focus on strengthening income tax collections.
  - Strengthening the Anti-Corruption Commission.

*Source: _cr15305 - Box 9.1: Governance Achievements to Date*

### Annex Table 1.3: Bangladesh: Revenue Performances, FY10-18

### Annex Table 1.3: Bangladesh: Revenue Performances, FY10-18

### NBR Tax Revenue (In billions of taka)
- NBR Taxe Revenue: 597, 762, 916, 1033, 1201, 1418, 1674, 1992, 2467

### Taxes on Income and Profit (In billions of taka)
- Taxes on Income and Profit: 162, 227, 282, 344, 392, 468, 563, 676, 809
  - Taxes on Personal Income: 60, 89, 117, 150, 176, 214, 259, 312, 375
  - Taxes on Corporate Profit: 102, 138, 165, 194, 216, 254, 304, 364, 434

### Taxes on Domestic Production (In billions of taka)
- Taxes on Domestic Production: 204, 284, 351, 394, 427, 508, 609, 745, 878
  - Domestic VAT: 126, 178, 220, 264, 291, 348, 411, 494, 582
  - Supplementary Duty: 68, 97, 120, 120, 123, 147, 183, 234, 276
  - Excise Tax: 8, 5, 7, 5, 5, 0, 0, 0, 0
  - Other Tax: 2, 4, 5, 5, 8, 13, 15, 17, 20

### Taxes on International Trade (In billions of taka)
- Taxes on International Trade: 234, 276, 308, 316, 364, 428, 487, 554, 651
  - Custom Duty: 102, 112, 133, 126, 154, 174, 183, 199, 237
  - Import VAT: 98, 124, 134, 148, 152, 181, 213, 242, 276
  - Supplementary Duty (Import): 34, 40, 41, 42, 58, 74, 91, 113, 138

### NBR Tax Revenue (In Percent of GDP)
- NBR Tax Revenue: 8.6, 9.6, 10.0, 10.0, 10.2, 10.6, 11.0, 11.5, 12.5

### Taxes on Income and Profit (In Percent of GDP)
- Taxes on Income and Profit: 2.3, 2.8, 3.1, 3.3, 3.3, 3.5, 3.7, 3.9, 4.1
  - Taxes on Personal Income: 0.9, 1.1, 1.3, 1.4, 1.5, 1.6, 1.7, 1.8, 1.9
  - Taxes on Corporate Profit: 1.5, 1.7, 1.8, 1.9, 1.8, 1.9, 2.0, 2.1, 2.2

### Taxes on Domestic Production (In Percent of GDP)
- Taxes on Domestic Production: 2.9, 3.6, 3.8, 3.8, 3.6, 3.8, 4.0, 4.3, 4.5
  - Domestic VAT: 1.8, 2.2, 2.4, 2.5, 2.5, 2.6, 2.7, 2.9, 3.0
  - Supplementary Duty: 1.0, 1.2, 1.3, 1.2, 1.0, 1.1, 1.2, 1.4, 1.4
  - Excise Tax: 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0
  - Other Tax: 0.0, 0.1, 0.1, 0.0, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1

### Taxes on International Trade (In Percent of GDP)
- Taxes on International Trade: 3.4, 3.5, 3.4, 3.0, 3.1, 3.2, 3.2, 3.2, 3.3
  - Custom Duty: 1.5, 1.4, 1.4, 1.2, 1.3, 1.3, 1.2, 1.2, 1.2
  - Import VAT: 1.4, 1.6, 1.5, 1.4, 1.3, 1.4, 1.4, 1.4, 1.4
  - Supplementary Duty (Import): 0.5, 0.5, 0.4, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.6, 0.7, 0.7

### Nominal GDP (In Billion Taka)
- Nominal GDP: 6943, 7967, 9187, 10379, 11738, 13376, 15214, 17321, 19737

*Source: Ministry of Finance, Bangladesh and Revised Five Year Plan Projections*

### 2835.04 km

### _cr15305 - 2835.04 km

### Infrastructure / Transport
- Roads — Construction of new roads: 4,672 km (baseline) ; 406.5 km Actual 2013 — Needs attention.
- Roads — Improvement/Rehabilitation of roads: 8,433 km (baseline) ; 1993 km Actual 2013 — Needs attention.
- Bridges/culverts/overpass — Construction of new: 23,777 meter (baseline) ; 17,239 meter Actual 2013 — Needs attention.
- Bridges/culverts — Reconstruction: 10,362 meter (baseline) ; 16,876 meter Actual 2013 — Needs attention.
- Construction of Tunnel: 3,600 meter (baseline) ; Nill Actual 2013 — Needs attention.
- Other road network figures: 2835.04 km (2010); 4237.04 km BR (Need updated data).

### Outcomes / Sector Contribution
- Contribution of road sector to national income — Baseline 2010: 6.6% growth rate; Target 2015: 7.5% growth rate (average); Actual 2013: 6.7% growth(average) — Needs attention.
- No. of usable cyclone shelters — Baseline 2010: 2,852 shelters (2010); Target 2015: 5,352 shelters; Actual 2013: 3770 — Needs attention.
- No. of rural communities with disaster resilient habitats and communities assets — Baseline 2010: 2000 (2010); Target 2015: 20000; Actual 2013: 18100 — Needs attention.

### Energy
- Per capita consumption of electricity — Baseline 2010: 170 KWh; Target 2015: 390 KWh; Data Source: Power Cell; Actual 2013: 285 kwh — On track.
- Access to electricity (% of households) — Baseline 2010: 47; Target 2015: 65; Data Source: Power Cell; Actual 2013: 62 — On track.
- Electricity Generation (MW) — Baseline 2009: 5803; Target 2015: 15457 MW; Data Source: Power Cell; Actual 2013: 9598 — On track.

### Gender and Inequality
- Women and men enjoy equal opportunities — Ratio of Girls to boys in tertiary education: Baseline 2010: 0.37; Target 2015: 1.00; Data Source: Ministry of Women and Children‘s‘ Affairs (MoWCA); Actual 2013: 0.73 — On track.
- Percent of Seats held by women in national parliament — Baseline 2010: 12.7; Target 2015: 33; Data Source: MoWCA; Actual 2013: 25 — On track.
- Ratio of literate females to males (percent of ages 20-24) — Baseline 2010: 85; Target 2015: 100; Data Source: MoWCA; Actual 2013: 86 (2012) — Needs attention.
- Share of women employed in the non-agricultural sector (percent) — Baseline 2010: 19.87; Target 2015: 50; Data Source: LFS 2010; Actual 2013: Not available — Needs attention.

### Environmental Sustainability
- Hectare of forest coverage (%) — Baseline 2010: 13.14; Target 2015: 15; Data Source: Ministry of Environmet and Forestry (MoEF); Actual 2013: Need updated data — Needs attention.
- Km of waterways navigable year round — Baseline 2010: 3800 km; Target 2015: 3910 km; Data Source: Bangladesh Inland Water Transport (BIWT); Actual 2013: Need updated data — Needs attention.
- Productive forest area (%) (70 % tree density) — Baseline 2010: 13; Target 2015: 15; Data Source: MoEF; Actual 2013: Updated data not available — Needs attention.
- Consumption of ozone depleting CFCs (per capita tonnes) — Baseline 2010: 72.6; Target 2015: 65; Data Source: MoEF; Actual 2013: Updated data not available — Needs attention.
- Proportion of terrestrial and marine areas protected — Baseline 2005-2010: 1.7/0.5; Target 2015: 5; Data Source: MoEF; Actual 2013: Updated data not available — Needs attention.
- CO2 emissions (tonnes per capita) — Baseline 2010: 0.25; Target 2015: 0.38; Data Source: MoEF; Actual 2013: 0.34 — On track.

### ICT and Research & Development
- Internet users (per 100 people) — Baseline 2005-2010: 0.2; Data Source: BTRC; Actual 2012: 20.52.
- Research and Development Spending/GDP (%) — Baseline 2005-2010: 0.6; Target 2015: 1.0; Data Source: Ministry of Finance; Actual 2013: Updated data not available.
- Compulsory ICT Education (education level-class) — Target 2015: 12; Actual 2013: Updated data not available.
- Telecaster/Community e-centre with Inter-net facilities at unions (%) — Target 2015: 100; Actual 2013: Updated data not available.
- Computer laboratory at the primary government school — Target 2015: 5; Actual 2013: Updated data not available.
- Increase teledensity (%) — Target 2015: 70; Actual 2013: Updated data not available.
- Expansion of Broad Band Coverage (%) — Target 2015: 30; Actual 2013: Updated data not available.

### Urban
- Reduced urban poverty and improved living conditions — Percent of City Corporation expenditure raised autonomously: Baseline 2010: 38.5; Target 2015: 51; Data Source: Ministry of Local Government & Rural Devt (MoLGRD); Actual 2013: Updated data not available.
- Proportion of urban population living in slums — Data Source: MoLGRD; Actual 2013: Updated data not available.

### Governance — Democratic Governance
- Proportion of the Elected Representatives Female (Directly elected):
  - Baseline 8th National Parliament: 2%
  - 9th National Parliament: 7%
  - 10th National Parliament Target: 6%
  - Comment: Female participation in politics witnessed considerable improvement.
- Numbers of Bills Passed per year:
  - Baseline 8th National Parliament: 37
  - 9th National Parliament: 54
  - 10th National Parliament Target: 45
  - Comment: Significant Improvement.
- Average Parliamentary Attendance:
  - Baseline 8th National Parliament: 57%
  - 9th National Parliament {First Fifteen Session}: 63%
  - 10th National Parliament Target: 70%
  - Comment: Participation in Parliament is poor. Needs attention.

### Economic Governance
- % of Gross NPL in Public Banks — Baseline: 14.1; Target 2015: 12.0; Data Source: Bangladesh Bank; Actual Sept 2013: 28.76% — Needs urgent attention.
- Income Tax as a % GDP — Baseline (2011): 2.9; Target 2015: 5.0; Data Source: NBR; Actual 2013: 3.4 — Small improvement. Needs progress.

### Justice and Human Rights
- Weighted Average National Disposal Rate — Baseline (2011): 33.34; Actual 2012: 32.24 (Supreme Court Registry) — Judicial bottle necks observed.
- Case Disposal Rate {Criminal} — Baseline (2011): 42.98; Actual 2012: 42.33 (Supreme Court Registry) — Needs attention.
- Case Disposal Rate {Civil} — Baseline (2011): 7.91; Actual 2012: 8.23 (Supreme Court; MoLJPA) — Poor performance. Needs attention.
- Case backlogs in the formal justice system (lower and upper judiciary) — Baseline: 1.8 million; Actual May 2013: 2.7 million — Needs attention.

### Annex 3 — Outline for Line Ministry Inputs (Guidance)
- A. Progress with Implementation of the Sixth Plan Targets:
  - Request for latest available data on progress with targets.
  - Assessment of realism of objectives and progress made; factors that helped achieve targets.
  - Frank assessment of likelihood targets will be achieved by end June 2015.
- B. Major Policies and Institutional Reforms between FY10-FY13:
  - Indicate ongoing policy and institutional reforms affecting the ministry/sector (pricing policy, staff recruitment, PPP policy, reorganization, devolution, implementation of laws).
  - Report new policies, laws or reforms since July 2010 and status of implementation.
- C. Important Constraints that Affect Ministry/Sector Performance:
  - Identify major reasons for shortfalls (shortage of financing; lack of staff; procurement problems; delayed release of funds; long approval processes; information problems).
- D. Improvement for the Future:
  - Views on critical reforms needed; provide specifics, including annual funding provided through national budget and ADP between FY10 and FY13 compared with assessed needs.
- Table A3.1: Template for Ministry/Sector Objectives, Performance Indicators and Targets for the SFYP (columns: Baseline data; Performance so far; Sixth Plan end-year target; Comments on likelihood of achieving SFYP target).

*Source: Sixth Plan and Proposed Development Results Framework, GED 2013*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2015/_cr15305.pdf_