## PREFACE (content unit _cr16388)

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---

### Presidential overview and vision
- Implementation of the National Development Program (PND 2012-2015) described as "a huge success."
- Economy re-launched with "an average annual rate of real GDP of about nine percent."
- "More than two million jobs in four years" created.
- Incomes of the "vast majority of Ivorians in both urban areas and the countryside" raised.
- Achievements sustained by strengthening economic infrastructure and improving living conditions.
- 2016-2020 PND objectives:
  - Achieve the emergence of Côte d’Ivoire by 2020 with a solid industrial base.
  - Poverty reduction and better distribution of the fruits of growth, "above all for the least privileged and most vulnerable."
  - Structural transformation through competitiveness and processing of commodities and exports.
  - Focus: (i) more extensive processing of agricultural raw materials; (ii) diversifying the industrial apparatus by promoting manufacturing.
  - Improve living conditions via quality economic infrastructure, land development, and environmental conservation.
- Macroeconomic framework: continue a "solid" framework pursuing "robust, inclusive economic growth geared to creating jobs, especially for young people and women."
- Complementary priorities: attractive business environment, good governance, human capital development (education and training responsive to job market needs), health services accessibility through Universal Health Coverage (UHC).
- Emphasis on international cooperation, regional integration, and outreach promoting Côte d’Ivoire.
- Call for unity, discipline, work and peace as foundations for lasting emergence and consolidation of institutions.

*Alassane OUATTARA, President of the Republic of Côte d’Ivoire*

### I. Background and institutional framework
- Policy launch: May 2011 new economic strategy aiming to reduce the poverty rate by "more than half by 2020" and transform Côte d’Ivoire into an emerging country by 2020.
- Specific objectives include: robust, sustainable, equitable, and inclusive growth; increased commodity processing (cocoa, coffee, cashew, cotton); top-tier business environment; improved human development indices; better governance and anti-corruption performance; leadership in subregional and African integration.
- Two-stage strategy: 2012-2015 PND to lay foundations; 2016-2020 PND to expedite emergence.
- Alignment with international agendas: (i) the “post-2015” development agenda; (ii) the 2063 Agenda; (iii) the Common African Position (CAP); (iv) the African Union Plan of Action; (v) ECOWAS Vision 2020; (v) WAEMU regional economic program.
- Institutional setup (Decree No. 145/PM of March 25, 2015):
  - Interministerial Steering and Supervisory Committee (COS-PND 2016-2020), chaired by the Prime Minister; Minister of Planning and Development as vice-chair.
  - Technical Committee (CT-PND 2016-2020) chaired by the Prime Minister’s Chief of Staff.
  - Technical Secretariat (ST-PND 2016-2020) coordinated by the Director General of Planning and Poverty Reduction.
  - Thematic working groups.
- Participatory and results-based approach:
  - Local consultations held between November 17 and 24, 2004 across districts with broad stakeholder participation.
  - Thematic working groups and inputs from existing studies and lessons from the 2012-2015 PND.
  - Adopted approaches: results-based management (RBM) and human rights, gender, equity and sustainable development-based planning.
  - Document structure: Part 1 — strategic diagnostic assessment; Part 2 — strategic policy orientations; Part 3 — priority actions matrix.

### II. Gains from the 2012-2015 PND (key outcomes)
- Peace restored, social cohesion re-established; rule of law and security re-established nationwide.
- Security index (United Nations definition) "is the same in Côte d’Ivoire as it is in New York City and Geneva."
- Return of institutions, e.g., African Development Bank to Abidjan in September 2014.
- Strong, sustained and inclusive growth; inflation controlled "to below the Community average of 3 percent."
- "GDP per capita increased 21 percent between 2012 and 2014."
- Transport and roads:
  - Completion: northern (Singrobo-Yamoussoukro) highway, Riviera II highway interchange, Henri Konan Bédié, Bouaflé and Jacqueville bridges.
  - 140 km of the Gesco–Singrobo highway reinforced.
  - Paving completed: 86 km Singrobo–Yamoussoukro; 120 km Boundiali–Tengrela.
  - More than 5000 km of rural roads upgraded.
- Employment and education:
  - Formal sector jobs: 722,567 (2012); 756,597 (2013); 799,890 (2014).
  - Education infrastructure built: 9,291 primary school classrooms; 3,500 secondary school classrooms; 45 middle schools.
  - Gross primary school admission rate: increased from 73.4 percent in 2008 to 97.8 percent in 2014.
  - Gross school enrollment rate: increased from 76.2 percent in 2008 to 94.7 percent in 2014.
- Health: rehabilitation and re-equipping of hospitals and health centers; free healthcare initiative for mothers and children including C-sections and medicines.
- Water and sanitation:
  - Construction of 794 pumps and 76 water towers.
  - Maintenance on 11,446 human-powered pumps.
  - Abidjan water treatment station ground storage capacity: "10,000 m3."
- Housing and electrification:
  - 71 social housing construction projects commenced; allocation of 3,060 hectares of land for low-cost social housing.
  - Roughly 800 rural towns connected to the electrical power grid.
- Private sector investment (2012-2014): "CFAF 4,699 billion" vs predicted "CFAF 3,946 billion," a "118.3 percent implementation rate."
- Remaining challenges highlighted:
  - (i) maintaining strong, sustainable and equitable growth mindful of human rights, gender and the environment;
  - (ii) preserving the country’s image;
  - (iii) restoring Côte d’Ivoire to the lead group in human development indices.

### III. Strategic diagnosis on the path to emergence
- Emergence requires a "developmental State" capable of long-term participatory structural reforms, changes in production and consumption patterns, strong diversified economic growth, human-centered policies, technology and innovation, expedited regional integration, and increased mobilization of domestic resources.
- Institutional and governance issues:
  - Democratization and citizen participation limited; decentralization incomplete.
  - Public administration weakened after crisis: impaired technical capabilities, loss of administrative memory, practices at odds with principles and norms.
  - Planning culture not yet entrenched to make the Foresight, Planning, Programming, Budgeting and Evaluation chain the driver of development results.
  - Governance ranking: Côte d’Ivoire "ranks among the lowest 25% of countries in Africa (Country Policy and Institutional Assessment – CPIA)."
  - Key governance challenges: (i) consolidation of peace, security and democracy; (ii) modernization of the State with transparency, effectiveness, and accountability; (iii) robust participation by civil society and the private sector.
- Human capital and social preparedness:
  - Progress toward universal primary and secondary education "slow and incomplete" for parity and literacy.
  - Large number of youths leaving school do not find a job.
  - Vocational training and higher education often misaligned with labor market needs; research limited in relevance to the productive sector.
  - Health improvements insufficient to swiftly raise life expectancy; demographic transition slow; total fertility rate remains high.
  - Social protection system not yet fully established; deficits in housing, electricity and safe water; marked inequality between poor and non-poor and between rural and urban areas.
  - Human development index improving "but slowly."
- Production and consumption patterns:
  - Business environment improvements attracting FDI, including in agricultural processing.
  - Agriculture: primary employment source but characterized by low productivity; yields often lower than competing countries except rubber tree cultivation.
  - Total factor productivity, and productivity of capital and labor, "is still limited and contributes less to growth than in benchmark emerging countries."

---

### 37. Sectors with technological catch-up and research and development potential need

### Technological innovation, diversification, and R&D priorities
- Need to identify sectors with technological catch-up and R&D potential to promote technological innovation and sustainable growth.
- Principal strategic challenges:
  - Put in place an operational strategy for innovation involving enterprises, research institutions, and local authorities to process commodities and diversify the economy by creating new value chains.
  - Implement policies and projects for competing in local, regional, and international markets by improving productive sector infrastructure, stabilizing or reducing relative factor costs, and providing assistance to meet quality standards for each product line.
  - Gradually align production and consumption patterns with environmental sustainability principles, including reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, environmental conservation, and biodiversity protection.

### Structural constraints on exports, employment, and skills
- Exports underperform due to lack of diversification, competitiveness issues, and product quality problems in each export sector.
- Limited processing of primary sector products increases vulnerability to terms-of-trade volatility.
- Low economic diversification and limited commodity processing restrict employment and skills development opportunities for young job market entrants.
- Educational system not providing graduates with entrepreneurial and technical skills necessary for innovation and business creativity.

### Enterprise financing, managerial capacity, and competitiveness
- Enterprises face difficulty finding funding and lack managerial skills to develop fundable projects, leading to high factor costs.
- Normalization processes impose costs that hamper competitiveness.
- Private and state-owned enterprises urged to embrace social responsibility for human resource development, community engagement, gender perspectives, and environmental concerns to support a green economy.

### Infrastructure development and environmental sustainability
- 2012-2015 PND focused on rehabilitating and developing transportation infrastructure, social housing programs, water production and safe water supply programs; coverage must be expanded.
- Challenges and priorities:
  - Reduce accumulated shortages and close urban-rural and interregional gaps.
  - Incorporate environmental and green economy dimensions in local and urban building choices: reduce greenhouse gas emissions, pursue energy efficiency, use renewable energy, implement appropriate waste management, and reduce deforestation.
  - Address uneven, poorly interconnected regional infrastructure to create growth and competitiveness poles that trigger positive externalities for industry and academia.
  - Develop energy and ICT infrastructure to strengthen resilience of beneficiary populations and preserve ecological equilibrium in development zones.
  - Involve populations, regions, districts, and local authorities through local development plans co-drafted by the State and local actors.

### Regional and global integration, partnerships, and trade insertion
- Côte d’Ivoire regained respect and influence regionally due to presidential involvement in subregional conflict resolution and economic upturn from the 2012-2015 PND.
- Regional and international cooperation critical to build strategic partnerships for trade development, funding mobilization, and technology transfers.
- Challenges:
  - Form solid partnerships to expedite development and expand markets for FDI and economic growth.
  - Use community strategies for optimal allocation of local value chains and support Ivorian-owned enterprises to scale regionally.
  - Establish public-private partnerships geared to developing regional operating capacity.
- Consultative group for 2012-2015 PND demonstrated catalytic role of strategic partnerships; mobilizing regional and international partners essential to raise additional funds required for 2016-2020 PND.

### Strategic vision and emergence objectives
- Long-term Vision (Côte d’Ivoire by 2040): "Côte d’Ivoire, an industrial power, united in its cultural diversity, democratic, and open to the outside world." Four pillars:
  - (i) Côte d’Ivoire is an industrial power;
  - (ii) Côte d’Ivoire is a nation united in its cultural diversity;
  - (iii) Côte d’Ivoire is a democratic nation;
  - (iv) Côte d’Ivoire is open to the world.
- 2016-2020 PND central objective: bring Côte d’Ivoire to emergence via a consciously chosen strategy (une stratégie volontariste) leading to significantly reduced poverty, a rising middle class, rapid industrialization, structural transformation, more opportunities for decent jobs, and deeper integration into regional and global value chains.
- Outcome target: “Côte d’Ivoire is an emerging country by 2020 with a solid industrial base.”
- Pillars supporting the PND:
  - Quality institutions and governance;
  - Preparedness and capacities for women and men;
  - Changes in production and consumption patterns;
  - Development of strategic infrastructure consistent with environmental sustainability;
  - Beneficial insertion into regional and global trade and other networks.

### Macroeconomic scenarios and chosen path
- Three scenarios for 2016-2020: “elephant at rest”, “the triumph of the elephant”, and the “emerging elephant (l’éléphant émergent).”
- Chosen scenario: emerging elephant — based on consolidation of political stability and robust public and private productive investment, especially to stimulate industry as the core pillar of structural transformation.
- Emphasis on expediting structural transformation and job creation to ensure inclusive growth and continued emergence.

### Real GDP growth projections (emerging elephant scenario)
- GDP growth projections:
  - 2016: 9.8 percent
  - 2017: 8.9 percent
  - 2018: 8.8 percent
  - 2019: 8.3 percent
  - 2020: 8.0 percent
- Revenue and expenditure projections based on 8.7 percent average annual growth of GDP over 2016-2020.

### Investment and financing framework (2016-2020)
- Total investments planned: CFAF 30 000.00 billion, including:
  - Public: CFAF 11 284.45 billion (37.6 percent)
  - Private: CFAF 18 715.55 billion (62.4 percent)
- Annual investment path (CFAF billions):
  - 2015 baseline: 3 528.10
  - 2016: 4 277.20
  - 2017: 5 148.53
  - 2018: 6 000.28
  - 2019: 6 847.32
  - 2020: 7 726.67
- Investment rate (% GDP) by year:
  - 2015: 18.70 %
  - 2016: 20.20 %
  - 2017: 21.20 %
  - 2018: 22.40%
  - 2019: 23.30 %
  - 2020: 23.90%
- Public investment rate (% GDP): 7.9% (2015), 7.8% (2016), 8.0% (2017), 8.5% (2018), 8.7% (2019), 8.8% (2020).
- Private investment rate (% GDP): 10.7% (2015), 12.5% (2016), 13.2% (2017), 13.9 % (2018), 14.6% (2019), 15.1% (2020).

### Fiscal policy, revenue, and expenditure projections
- Fiscal objective: increase public investment while ensuring public indebtedness remains sustainable and enhance quality of public expenditure; implement Fiscal Reform Commission recommendations.
- Total revenue and grants projected:
  - 2016: 4 444.8 billion CFAF
  - 2020: 6 492.6 billion CFAF
  - Total 2016-2020: 26 893.0
  - Average growth rate of total revenue and grants: 8.2 percent
- Tax revenue (80.6 percent average share over the period):
  - 2016: CFAF 3 453.7 billion
  - 2020: CFAF 5 317.7 billion
- Tax pressure / tax revenue/GDP:
  - 2016: 16.35 %
  - 2017: 16.35 %
  - 2018: 16.49 %
  - 2019: 16.72 %
  - 2020: 16.87 %
  - Average: 16.56 %
- Nontax revenue:
  - 2016: CFAF 625.1 billion
  - 2020: CFAF 679.2 billion
- Grants:
  - 2016: CFAF 366.1 billion
  - 2020: CFAF 495.7 billion
- Payroll costs:
  - 2016: CFAF 1 428.9 billion
  - 2020: CFAF 1 684.8 billion
  - Increase over period: CFAF 255.9 billion
- Operating expenses:
  - 2016: CFAF 831.0 billion
  - 2020: CFAF 1 063.8 billion
- Subsidies and transfers:
  - 2016: CFAF 372.9 billion
  - 2020: CFAF 394.1 billion
  - Allocations mainly to private schools, national public institutions (EPN), local governments (collectivités), the electric energy sector, and the cotton sector.
- Investment expenditure projections:
  - 2016: CFAF 1 643.7 billion
  - 2017: CFAF 1 950.6 billion
  - 2020: CFAF 2 843.4 billion

### Public debt interest and fiscal balances
- Interest on public debt projections:
  - 2016: CFAF 319.4 billion
  - 2017: CFAF 311.6 billion
  - 2018: CFAF 277.7 billion
  - 2019: CFAF 245.2 billion
  - 2020: CFAF 212.2 billion
- Fiscal balances (payment order basis) as percentage of GDP:
  - 2016: -3.3 percent of GDP
  - 2017: - 3/7 percent in 2017 (as presented)
  - 2018: -3.4 percent
  - 2019: -2.6 percent
  - 2020: -2.1 percent
- Corrected fiscal balance from the safety surplus (CFAF billions):
  - 2016: -791.0
  - 2017: -989.4
  - 2018: -1 020.0
  - 2019: -880.8
  - 2020: -817.5
  - Total 2016-2020: -4 498.6

### PND implementation financing needs and gaps
- PND implementation financing needs (CFAF billions) total over 2016-2020: 9 003.1, by year:
  - 2016: CFAF 1 751.5
  - 2017: CFAF 1 987.1
  - 2018: CFAF 1 883.1
  - 2019: CFAF 1 732.1
  - 2020: CFAF 1 654.3
- Budget surplus (épargne publique) projected at CFAF 5 215.6 billion for 2017-2020, producing a public investment financing gap of CFAF 4 425.2 billion to be mobilized through the Consultative Group.
- 2016 financing gap: CFAF 1 075.2 billion, including CFAF 718 billion in grants and loans taken on; remaining CFAF 357.2 billion to be obtained on the regional money and financial market.

### Public debt financing strategy and instruments (2016-2020)
- MTDS objectives: use debt instruments suited to the CFAF 9 003.1 billion financing gap while ensuring debt sustainability amid reduced concessionary loan options.
- Planned funding composition (average under 2016-2020 MTDS):
  - 56 percent of new funding to be raised in the domestic market
  - 44 percent abroad
- External financing composition (2016-2020):
  - 20 percent non-concessionary funding
  - 15 percent semi-concessionary funding
  - 9 percent soft loans
- Domestic financing composition (2016-2020):
  - 7 percent short-term loans
  - 19 percent medium-term financing
  - 39 percent long-term financing
- Domestic financing instrument shares cited elsewhere:
  - 56 percent in 2016-2020 (33 percent long-term securities, 17 percent medium-term securities, and 6 percent short-term securities)
  - 65 percent in 2021-2035 (7 percent short-term, 19 percent medium-term, and 39 percent long term)

### Public debt financing by instrument and source (2016-2020) — (CFAF billions)
- Total financing by year (CFAF billions): 2016: 1 565.9; 2017: 1 763.1; 2018: 1 860.7; 2019: 1 881.8; 2020: 2 028.1; Total: 9 099.7.
- External debt total (43.7 percent of financing): total CFAF 3 977.7; yearly breakdown: 783; 793.4; 837.3; 752.7; 811.3.
  - Concessional (8.8 percent): total CFAF 796.1 (yearly: 195.7; 198.3; 167.5; 112.9; 121.7).
  - Semi-concessional (14.7 percent): total CFAF 1 338.00 (yearly: 203.6; 285.6; 301.4; 263.5; 283.9).
  - Non-concessional (20.3 percent): total CFAF 1 843.50 (yearly: 383.7; 309.4; 368.4; 376.4; 405.6).
- Domestic debt total (56.3 percent of financing): total CFAF 5 122; yearly breakdown: 783; 969.7; 1 023.4; 1 129.1; 1 216.9.
  - Public securities short term (≤ 1year) (5.6 percent): total CFAF 512.2 (yearly: 78.3; 97; 102.3; 112.9; 121.7).
  - Public securities medium term (2-5 years) (16.9 percent): total CFAF 1 536.60 (yearly: 234.9; 290.9; 307; 338.7; 365.1).
  - Public securities long term (6 years and above) (33.8 percent): total CFAF 3 073.20 (yearly: 469.8; 581.8; 614; 677.5; 730.1).
  - Other domestic loans: none listed.

### Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) findings
- DSA projecting 20 years from 2015 shows the risk of debt distress in respect of external debt is moderate.
- Solvency and liquidity ratios remain below threshold levels in the analyzed period.
- Indicators are vulnerable to a shock equivalent to a 2 percent increase in the average interest rate charged for financing.

*Source: _cr16388 - 37. Sectors with technological catch-up and research and development potential need (2016).*

### PREFACE

### PREFACE

### Presidential overview and vision

- Implementation of the National Development Program (PND 2012-2015) was "a huge success."
- Re-launched economy with "an average annual rate of real GDP of about nine percent."
- Created "more than two million jobs in four years."
- Raised incomes of the "vast majority of Ivorians in both urban areas and the countryside."
- Achievements sustained by strengthening economic infrastructure and improving living conditions.
- 2016-2020 PND objectives:
  - Achieve the emergence of Côte d’Ivoire by 2020 with a solid industrial base.
  - Poverty reduction and better distribution of the fruits of growth, "above all for the least privileged and most vulnerable."
  - Structural transformation through competitiveness and processing of commodities and exports.
  - Focus areas: (i) more extensive processing of agricultural raw materials; (ii) diversifying the industrial apparatus by promoting manufacturing.
  - Improve living conditions via quality economic infrastructure, land development, and environmental conservation.
- Macroeconomic framework: continue a "solid" framework pursuing "robust, inclusive economic growth geared to creating jobs, especially for young people and women."
- Complementary priorities: attractive business environment, good governance, human capital development (education and training responsive to job market needs), health services accessibility through Universal Health Coverage (UHC).
- Emphasis on international cooperation, regional integration, and outreach promoting Côte d’Ivoire.
- Call for unity, discipline, work and peace as foundations for lasting emergence and consolidation of institutions.

*Alassane OUATTARA, President of the Republic of Côte d’Ivoire*

### I. Background

- May 2011: new economic strategy launched upon President Alassane OUATTARA taking office to reduce the poverty rate by "more than half by 2020" and transform Côte d’Ivoire into an emerging country by 2020.
- Specific objectives:
  - (i) Achieve robust, sustainable, equitable, and inclusive growth geared to creating jobs and mindful of gender and the environment.
  - (ii) Increase the share of value-added in processing commodities (cocoa, coffee, cashew, cotton, and so on).
  - (iii) Establish one of the best business environments in Africa and in the world.
  - (iv) Become a member of the lead group of countries in terms of human development indices.
  - (v) Join the ranks of best African countries in terms of good governance and success in combating corruption.
  - (vi) Be a driving force for subregional and African integration.
- Two-stage strategy: 2012-2015 PND to lay foundations; 2016-2020 PND to expedite emergence.
- 2016-2020 PND aligned with subregional, regional, African and international initiatives including:
  - (i) the “post-2015” development agenda;
  - (ii) the 2063 Agenda;
  - (iii) the Common African Position (CAP) on the post-2015 development agenda;
  - (iv) the African Union Plan of Action;
  - (v) the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Vision 2020;
  - (v) the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) regional economic program.

Institutional framework for drawing up the 2016-2020 PND

- Established by Decree No. 145/PM of March 25, 2015.
- Components:
  - Interministerial Steering and Supervisory Committee (COS-PND 2016-2020), chaired by the Prime Minister; Minister of Planning and Development as vice-chair.
  - Technical Committee (CT-PND 2016-2020) chaired by the Prime Minister’s Chief of Staff.
  - Technical Secretariat (ST-PND 2016-2020) coordinated by the Director General of Planning and Poverty Reduction.
  - Thematic working groups.

Participatory and results-based approach

- Local consultations held between November 17 and 24, 2004 in capitals of autonomous districts and former districts involving local officials, decentralized authorities, traditional authorities, associations, defense and security forces, development partners, private sector and civil society.
- Thematic working groups consulted central stakeholders (line ministries, civil society, sectarian and community organizations, think tanks and development partners).
- Inputs also drawn from existing studies on global, African and national approaches, lessons from the 2012-2015 PND.
- Adopted approaches: results-based management (RBM) and human rights, gender, equity and sustainable development-based planning.
- Document structure: Part 1 — strategic diagnostic assessment; Part 2 — strategic policy orientations; Part 3 — priority actions matrix.

### II. Gains from the 2012-2015 PND

Key outcomes after four years:

- Peace restored, social cohesion re-established, nation on the way to reconciliation; rule of law and security re-established nationwide.
- Security index (United Nations definition) "is the same in Côte d’Ivoire as it is in New York City and Geneva."
- Encouraged return of institutions like the African Development Bank to Abidjan in September 2014.
- Strong, sustained and inclusive growth; inflation brought under control "to below the Community average of 3 percent."
- "GDP per capita increased 21 percent between 2012 and 2014."
- Road and transportation infrastructure highlights:
  - Completion of the northern (Singrobo-Yamoussoukro) highway, the Riviera II highway interchange, and the Henri Konan Bédié, Bouaflé and Jacqueville bridges.
  - 140 km of the Gesco–Singrobo highway reinforced.
  - Paving completed for 86 km of the Singrobo–Yamoussoukro section and for 120 km of the Boundiali–Tengrela section.
  - More than 5000 km of rural roads upgraded.
- Employment and social sector improvements:
  - Formal sector jobs: 722,567 in 2012; 756,597 in 2013; 799,890 in 2014.
  - Education infrastructure: 9,291 primary school classrooms built; 3,500 secondary school classrooms; 45 middle schools.
  - Gross primary school admission rate: "increased from 73.4 percent in 2008 to 97.8 percent in 2014."
  - Gross school enrollment rate: "increased from 76.2 percent in 2008 to 94.7 percent in 2014."
- Health sector: rehabilitation and re-equipping of hospitals and health centers; free healthcare initiative for mothers and children including C-sections and medicines; upgraded technical platforms improved quality and access.
- Water and sanitation:
  - Construction of 794 pumps and 76 water towers.
  - Maintenance on 11,446 human-powered pumps.
  - Abidjan’s water treatment station ground storage capacity: "10,000 m3."
- Housing and electrification:
  - Commencement of 71 social housing construction projects and allocation of 3,060 hectares of land for low-cost social housing.
  - Connection of roughly 800 rural towns to the electrical power grid, easing service subscription costs and increasing access and coverage.
- Private sector contributions:
  - Significant investments in energy and mining (Tongon mine), oil and gas exploration, and processing units in coffee, cocoa, and cashew sectors.
  - Private sector investment from 2012 to 2014: "CFAF 4,699 billion" versus predicted "CFAF 3,946 billion," a "118.3 percent implementation rate."
- Noted remaining challenges:
  - (i) maintaining strong, sustainable and equitable growth mindful of human rights, gender and the environment;
  - (ii) preserving the country’s image;
  - (iii) restoring Côte d’Ivoire to the lead group of countries in Africa and the world in human development indices.

### III. Strategic diagnosis on the path to emergence

Overall assessment

- Greater effort required to ensure Côte d’Ivoire becomes an emerging country by 2020.
- Emergence requires a "developmental State" capable of long-term participatory structural reforms, changes in production and consumption patterns, strong diversified economic growth, human-centered policies, technology and innovation, expedited regional integration, and increased mobilization of domestic resources.
- Emergence should target improvements in the human condition to expedite human development.

Quality of institutions and governance

- Security improved and peace restored.
- Democratization and citizen participation remain limited: insufficient oversight over government activity, a limited role for the opposition, and unequal access to public funding and State media.
- Decentralization incomplete.
- Public administration weakened from years of crisis: impaired technical capabilities, loss of administrative memory, practices at odds with principles and norms.
- Public administration capacity shortcomings: skill-sets, systems management, procedures and methods, shortage of facilities.
- Planning culture not yet entrenched to make the Foresight, Planning, Programming, Budgeting and Evaluation chain a driving force for development results.
- Governance ranking: Côte d’Ivoire "ranks among the lowest 25% of countries in Africa (Country Policy and Institutional Assessment – CPIA)."
- Key governance challenges:
  - (i) consolidation of peace, security and democracy;
  - (ii) modernization of the State in line with transparency, effectiveness, and accountability;
  - (iii) robust participation in development by civil society and the private sector.

Human capital and social preparedness

- Education and vocational training: progress toward universal primary and secondary education is "slow and incomplete" regarding girl-boy parity and literacy.
- Large number of youths leaving school do not find a job.
- Weak links between education and the world of work; vocational training rarely aligned with employer needs.
- Higher education remains rigid and often misaligned with labor market prospects; research has limited relevance for the productive sector.
- Health improvements insufficient to swiftly raise life expectancy at birth; demographic transition slow due to delays in reducing infant and all-age mortality; total fertility rate remains high.
- Teenage pregnancy increases risk of school dropout and limited labor market participation for girls.
- Social protection system not yet fully established.
- Living environment deficits: access to decent housing, healthy environment, electricity and safe water not yet achieved.
- Marked inequality between poor and non-poor and between rural and urban areas.
- Human development index improving "but slowly."
- Main human development challenge: strengthening resilience.

Production and consumption patterns for emergence

- Business environment improvements are attracting foreign direct investment, including in agricultural processing.
- Agriculture remains the primary source of employment but is characterized by low productivity across agriculture, fisheries and poultry farming; yields often lower than competing countries except rubber tree cultivation.
- Total factor productivity, and productivity of capital and labor, "is still limited and contributes less to growth than in benchmark emerging countries." 

*Source: PREFACE (content unit _cr16388)*

### 37. Sectors with technological catch-up and research and development potential need

### 37. Sectors with technological catch-up and research and development potential need

### Technological innovation, diversification, and R&D priorities
- Sectors with technological catch-up and research and development potential need to be identified to promote technological innovation and sustainable growth.
- Principal strategic challenges:
  - Put in place an operational strategy for innovation involving enterprises, research institutions, and local authorities to process commodities and diversify the economy by creating new value chains.
  - Implement policies and projects for competing in local, regional, and international markets by improving productive sector infrastructure, stabilizing or reducing relative factor costs, and providing assistance to meet quality standards for each product line.
  - Gradually align production and consumption patterns with environmental sustainability principles, including reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, environmental conservation, and biodiversity protection.

### Structural constraints on exports, employment, and skills
- Exports underperform due to lack of diversification, competitiveness issues, and product quality problems in each export sector.
- Limited processing of primary sector products increases vulnerability to terms-of-trade volatility.
- Low economic diversification and limited commodity processing restrict employment and skills development opportunities for young job market entrants.
- The educational system is not feeding the labor market with graduates endowed with entrepreneurial and technical skills necessary for innovation and business creativity.

### Enterprise financing, managerial capacity, and competitiveness
- Enterprises face difficulty finding funding and lack managerial skills to develop fundable projects, leading to high factor costs.
- Normalization processes involve costs that hamper competitiveness.
- Both private and state-owned enterprises are urged to embrace social responsibility for human resource development, community engagement, gender perspectives, and environmental concerns to help develop a green economy.

### Infrastructure development and environmental sustainability
- 2012-2015 PND efforts focused on rehabilitating and developing transportation infrastructure, especially bridges, roads, and national highways; social housing programs were launched; water production and safe water supply programs expanded but must be more widespread.
- Challenges:
  - Continue reducing accumulated shortages and closing urban-rural and interregional gaps.
  - Incorporate environmental and green economy dimensions in local and urban building choices—reduce greenhouse gas emissions, pursue energy efficiency, use renewable energy, implement appropriate waste management, and reduce deforestation.
  - Address uneven, poorly interconnected regional infrastructure to create growth and competitiveness poles that trigger positive externalities conducive to industry and academia.
  - Develop energy and ICT infrastructure to strengthen resilience of beneficiary populations and preserve ecological equilibrium in development zones.
  - Involve populations, regions, districts, and local authorities through local development plans co-drafted by the State and local actors to ensure consistency with PND goals and local government requirements.

### Regional and global integration, partnerships, and trade insertion
- Côte d’Ivoire regained respect and influence regionally due to presidential involvement in subregional conflict resolution and economic upturn from the 2012-2015 PND, restoring its role within WAEMU and ECOWAS.
- Regional and international cooperation is critical to build strategic partnerships for trade development, funding mobilization, and technology transfers.
- Challenges:
  - Form solid partnerships to expedite development and expand markets for FDI and economic growth.
  - Use community strategies for optimal allocation of local value chains and help Ivorian-owned enterprises scale up to operate regionally.
  - Establish public-private partnerships geared to developing regional operating capacity.
- The consultative group organized to fund the 2012-2015 PND demonstrated the catalytic role of strategic partnerships; mobilizing regional and international partners is essential to raise additional funds required to implement the 2016-2020 PND.

### Strategic vision and emergence objectives (Côte d’Ivoire 2040 and 2016-2020 PND)
- Long-term Vision (Côte d’Ivoire by 2040): "Côte d’Ivoire, an industrial power, united in its cultural diversity, democratic, and open to the outside world." Four pillars:
  - (i) Côte d’Ivoire is an industrial power;
  - (ii) Côte d’Ivoire is a nation united in its cultural diversity;
  - (iii) Côte d’Ivoire is a democratic nation;
  - (iv) Côte d’Ivoire is open to the world.
- 2016-2020 PND central objective: bring Côte d’Ivoire to emergence via a consciously chosen strategy (une stratégie volontariste) leading to significantly reduced poverty, a rising middle class, rapid industrialization, structural transformation, more opportunities for decent jobs, and deeper integration into regional and global value chains.
- Outcome target: “Côte d’Ivoire is an emerging country by 2020 with a solid industrial base.”
- Pillars supporting the PND:
  - Quality institutions and governance in all manifestations;
  - Preparedness and capacities for women and men to forge an emergent and prosperous Côte d’Ivoire;
  - Changes in production and consumption patterns to achieve emergence;
  - Development of strategic infrastructure as a lever for emergence while abiding by environmental sustainability principles;
  - Beneficial insertion into regional and global trade and other networks.

### Macroeconomic scenarios and chosen path
- Three macroeconomic framework scenarios for 2016-2020: “elephant at rest”, “the triumph of the elephant”, and the “emerging elephant (l’éléphant émergent).”
- Chosen scenario: emerging elephant—based on consolidation of political stability and robust public and private productive investment, especially to stimulate industry as the core pillar of structural transformation.
- Emphasis on expediting structural transformation and job creation to ensure inclusive growth and continued emergence.

### Real GDP growth projections (emerging elephant scenario)
- GDP growth projections:
  - 2016: 9.8 percent
  - 2017: 8.9 percent
  - 2018: 8.8 percent
  - 2019: 8.3 percent
  - 2020: 8.0 percent
- Revenue and expenditure projections are based on 8.7 percent average annual growth of GDP over 2016-2020.

### Investment and financing framework (2016-2020)
- Total investments planned: CFAF 30 000.00 billion, including:
  - Public: CFAF 11 284.45 billion (37.6 percent)
  - Private: CFAF 18 715.55 billion (62.4 percent)
- Annual investment path (CFAF billions):
  - 2016: 4 277.20
  - 2017: 5 148.53
  - 2018: 6 000.28
  - 2019: 6 847.32
  - 2020: 7 726.67
  - 2015 baseline: 3 528.10
- Investment rate (% GDP) by year:
  - 2015: 18.70 %
  - 2016: 20.20 %
  - 2017: 21.20 %
  - 2018: 22.40%
  - 2019: 23.30 %
  - 2020: 23.90%
- Public investment rate (% GDP) trajectory: 7.9% (2015), 7.8% (2016), 8.0% (2017), 8.5% (2018), 8.7% (2019), 8.8% (2020).
- Private investment rate (% GDP) trajectory: 10.7% (2015), 12.5% (2016), 13.2% (2017), 13.9 % (2018), 14.6% (2019), 15.1% (2020).

### Fiscal policy, revenue, and expenditure projections
- Fiscal policy objective: increase public investment while ensuring public indebtedness remains sustainable and enhance quality of public expenditure; implement Fiscal Reform Commission recommendations.
- Total revenue and grants projected:
  - 2016: 4 444.8 billion CFAF
  - 2020: 6 492.6 billion CFAF
  - Total 2016-2020: 26 893.0
  - Average growth rate of total revenue and grants: 8.2 percent
- Tax revenue (80.6 percent average share over the period):
  - 2016: CFAF 3 453.7 billion
  - 2020: CFAF 5 317.7 billion
- Tax pressure projected to change from 16.3 percent (2016) to 16.9 percent (2020); tax revenue/GDP row shows: 16.35 % (2016), 16.35 % (2017), 16.49 % (2018), 16.72 % (2019), 16.87 % (2020), average 16.56 %.
- Nontax revenue:
  - 2016: CFAF 625.1 billion
  - 2020: CFAF 679.2 billion
- Grants:
  - 2016: CFAF 366.1 billion
  - 2020: CFAF 495.7 billion
- Payroll costs:
  - 2016: CFAF 1 428.9 billion
  - 2020: CFAF 1 684.8 billion
  - Increase over period: CFAF 255.9 billion
- Operating expenses:
  - 2016: CFAF 831.0 billion
  - 2020: CFAF 1 063.8 billion
- Subsidies and transfers:
  - 2016: CFAF 372.9 billion
  - 2020: CFAF 394.1 billion
  - Allocated mainly to private schools, national public institutions (EPN), local governments (collectivités), the electric energy sector, and the cotton sector.
- Investment expenditure projections:
  - 2016: CFAF 1 643.7 billion
  - 2017: CFAF 1 950.6 billion
  - 2020: CFAF 2 843.4 billion

### Public debt interest and fiscal balances
- Interest on public debt projections:
  - 2016: CFAF 319.4 billion
  - 2017: CFAF 311.6 billion
  - 2018: CFAF 277.7 billion
  - 2019: CFAF 245.2 billion
  - 2020: CFAF 212.2 billion
- Fiscal balances (payment order basis) projected as percentage of GDP:
  - 2016: -3.3 percent of GDP
  - 2017: - 3/7 percent in 2017 (as presented)
  - 2018: -3.4 percent
  - 2019: -2.6 percent
  - 2020: -2.1 percent
- Corrected fiscal balance from the safety surplus (CFAF billions):
  - 2016: -791.0
  - 2017: -989.4
  - 2018: -1 020.0
  - 2019: -880.8
  - 2020: -817.5
  - Total 2016-2020: -4 498.6

### PND implementation financing needs and gaps
- PND implementation financing needs (CFAF billions) over 2016-2020: total CFAF 9 003.1 billion, broken down by year:
  - 2016: CFAF 1 751.5
  - 2017: CFAF 1 987.1
  - 2018: CFAF 1 883.1
  - 2019: CFAF 1 732.1
  - 2020: CFAF 1 654.3
- Under the 2016-2020 framework, the budget surplus (épargne publique) is projected at CFAF 5 215.6 billion, producing a public investment financing gap of CFAF 4 425.2 billion for 2017-2020 to be mobilized through the Consultative Group.
- For 2016, the financing gap is CFAF 1 075.2 billion, including CFAF 718 billion in grants and loans taken on; remaining CFAF 357.2 billion to be obtained on the regional money and financial market.

### Public debt financing strategy and instruments (2016-2020)
- 2015-2020 Medium-Term Debt Strategy (MTDS) objectives: use debt instruments suited to the CFAF 9 003.1 billion financing gap while ensuring debt sustainability amid reduced concessionary loan options.
- Planned funding composition (average under 2016-2020 MTDS):
  - 56 percent of new funding to be raised in the domestic market
  - 44 percent abroad
- External financing composition (2016-2020):
  - 20 percent non-concessionary funding
  - 15 percent semi-concessionary funding
  - 9 percent soft loans
- Domestic financing composition (2016-2020):
  - 7 percent short-term loans
  - 19 percent medium-term financing
  - 39 percent long-term financing
- Domestic financing instrument shares cited elsewhere:
  - 56 percent in 2016-2020 (33 percent long-term securities, 17 percent medium-term securities, and 6 percent short-term securities)
  - 65 percent in 2021-2035 (7 percent short-term, 19 percent medium-term, and 39 percent long term)

### Public debt financing by instrument and source (2016-2020) — (CFAF billions)
- Total financing by year (CFAF billions): 2016: 1 565.9; 2017: 1 763.1; 2018: 1 860.7; 2019: 1 881.8; 2020: 2 028.1; Total: 9 099.7.
- External debt total (43.7 percent of financing): total CFAF 3 977.7 broken down by year: 783; 793.4; 837.3; 752.7; 811.3.
  - Concessional (8.8 percent): total CFAF 796.1 (yearly: 195.7; 198.3; 167.5; 112.9; 121.7).
  - Semi-concessional (14.7 percent): total CFAF 1 338.00 (yearly: 203.6; 285.6; 301.4; 263.5; 283.9).
  - Non-concessional (20.3 percent): total CFAF 1 843.50 (yearly: 383.7; 309.4; 368.4; 376.4; 405.6).
- Domestic debt total (56.3 percent of financing): total CFAF 5 122 broken down by year: 783; 969.7; 1 023.4; 1 129.1; 1 216.9.
  - Public securities short term (≤ 1year) (5.6 percent): total CFAF 512.2 (yearly: 78.3; 97; 102.3; 112.9; 121.7).
  - Public securities medium term (2-5 years) (16.9 percent): total CFAF 1 536.60 (yearly: 234.9; 290.9; 307; 338.7; 365.1).
  - Public securities long term (6 years and above) (33.8 percent): total CFAF 3 073.20 (yearly: 469.8; 581.8; 614; 677.5; 730.1).
  - Other domestic loans: none listed.

### Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) findings
- A DSA projecting 20 years from 2015 shows the risk of debt distress in respect of external debt is moderate.
- Solvency and liquidity ratios remain below threshold levels in the analyzed period.
- Indicators are vulnerable to a shock equivalent to a 2 percent increase in the average interest rate charged for financing.

*Source: _cr16388 - 37. Sectors with technological catch-up and research and development potential need (2016).*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2016/_cr16388.pdf_