## _wp05236 - 1. Correlation Matrix

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### Introduction and purpose
- Purpose: Model the determinants of inflation in Madagascar over the period 1982-2004 to strengthen the effectiveness of monetary policy.
- Sample period: 1982-2004 (quarterly sample: 1982:Q1 to 2004:Q2).
- Context and challenges:
  - Countries with underdeveloped financial markets generally rely on the existence of a stable money demand function for formulation and conduct of efficient monetary policy.
  - Numerous structural shifts, policy reversions, terms of trade shocks, adverse weather conditions (cyclones), and political crises affected the economy.
  - Data deficiencies in terms of coverage, time span, and statistical properties.
  - Recent period (since 2001) characterized by highly volatile consumer price index (CPI) while broad money expanded by about 17 percent on average.
  - Flexible exchange rate regime in recent years covered.

### Institutional and monetary policy framework
- Historical and institutional background:
  - Exchange rate regime history: peg to French franc until 1982; crawling peg 1982–1994 with frequent step devaluations (notably June 1987); floating regime and interbank FX auction system introduced in 1994.
  - Financial liberalization from early 1990s: private and foreign banks allowed; treasury bills market and money market introduced mid-1990s.
  - Political crisis in 2002 caused a sharp decline in real GDP growth; recovery began in 2003.
- BCM framework and instruments:
  - Primary objective (BCM charter of 1994): “maintain price stability.”
  - Operational framework: monetary programming targeting annual growth of broad money (M3, including foreign currency deposits) as intermediate target; M3 target translated into base money operating guide using a three-month moving average money multiplier.
  - Instruments:
    - Predominantly direct instruments; statutory reserve requirement ratio adjusted to regulate base money and liquidity.
    - A basic rate (taux directeur) announced to influence inflation expectations and serve as benchmark for other rates.
    - Indirect market instruments exist (treasury bills, money market) but chronic excess liquidity has hampered positive real rates and interbank market development.
- Recent policy actions:
  - BCM lowered reserve requirement ratio in October 2002 and January 2003; monetary policy expansionary until early 2004.
  - In 2004, successive tightening measures including three consecutive reserve requirement increases raised treasury-bill rates and absorbed excess liquidity; deposit rates remained relatively stable.
  - Exchange rate adjustments in 2004 led to sharp inflation increases and negative real deposit rates; public holdings of treasury bills increased, weakening demand for real money balances.

### Model specification and econometric framework
- Theoretical structure:
  - Inflation equation extends a monetary disequilibrium model to an open economy with tradable and nontradable sectors.
  - Aggregate price level: pt = λ ptN + (1-λ) ptT
  - Tradable price: ptT = pt* + et
  - Nontradable inflation linked to money disequilibrium: ∆ptN = φ[(mt – pt) – mdt]
  - Money demand depends on real income (yt), foreign interest rates (i*), and expected depreciation (∆e).
- Empirical methods:
  - Unit-root tests (ADF), Johansen (1988) cointegration tests, error-correction modeling, systems estimation (FIML), and impulse response analysis.
- Data specifics:
  - Variables in logs except interest rates. CPI used is composite CPI; broad money is M3 including foreign exchange deposits.
  - Foreign interest rates proxied by yields on 10-year government bonds in France.
  - Nominal effective exchange rate defined as foreign currency per unit of local currency (an increase corresponds to an appreciation).
  - Real GDP interpolated from annual series by cubic method.
  - Dummy variables: dum94Q1 (switch to flexible FX regime and reforms in Q1 1994), dum02Q2 and dum02Q3 (political crisis in Q2 and Q3 2002).

### Unit-root, cointegration, and long-run money demand
- Unit-root and cointegration results:
  - Standard ADF tests: could not reject unit roots in level series; first differences reject unit root for all series.
  - Johansen procedure: maximal and trace eigenvalue statistics reject null of no cointegrating vector in favor of one cointegrating vector at the 5 and 1 percent levels, respectively.
- Estimated long-run (cointegrating) relationship:
  - m3 = 1.18p + 1.38y – 0.002i*  (equation (6))
  - Income elasticity ≈ 1.38; test imposing unitary income elasticity not rejected: χ2(1)=(0.37)[0.55].
  - Restricted long-run money demand (in real terms):
    - m – p = 1.15y - 0.07i*  (equation (7))
- Weak exogeneity and adjustment:
  - Weak exogeneity tests: only foreign interest rates are weakly exogenous; real money balances and output adjust to restore equilibrium.
- VAR residual diagnostics:
  - Some issues (normality rejection for y and p*), but Johansen procedure retained applicability.

### Determinants of inflation: error-correction model (ECM) results
- Estimation setup:
  - Dynamic ECM (Equation (8)) estimated with k = 4 lags, ECM from Equation (6), centered seasonal dummies; interpolated y excluded from dynamic equation.
  - Parsimonious restricted model reported.
- Key estimated coefficients and implications (restricted model unless noted):
  - ECM(-1) coefficient = 0.07**.
    - Implies adjustment toward long-run equilibrium of domestic prices takes more than 2½ years (14 quarters).
  - Broad money growth:
    - ∆m3 contemporaneous = 0.13**; lagged pattern consistent with money growth increasing inflation.
  - Foreign interest rates:
    - ∆i*(-2) = 0.02** (significant with lag); higher foreign interest rates increase inflation via reduced demand for real money balances.
  - Exchange rate pass-through:
    - ∆e contemporaneous coefficient = -0.001** and ∆e(-1) = -0.001** (restricted model).
    - Text interpretation: coefficient on exchange rate is negative (-0.002), suggesting that a 10 percent depreciation will lead to 0.02 percent increase in inflation.
  - Inflation inertia:
    - Sum of coefficients of lags of dependent variable = 0.37 (< 1) → no overshooting; presence of inertia.
  - Policy and shock dummies:
    - Dum94Q1 = 0.16**; Dum02Q2 = 0.17**; Dum02Q3 = -0.09** — financial reforms and 2002 political crisis had significant impacts, with reforms lowering inflation and crisis effects mixed.
  - Model fit:
    - R2 = 0.83 (unrestricted) and 0.80 (restricted).
- Diagnostic test statistics for the restricted ECM:
  - AR(1-5) F(5,72) = 1.7773 [0.1284]
  - ARCH(1-4) F(4,69) = 0.35626 [0.8388]
  - normality χ2(2) = 0.85063 [0.6536]
  - heteroscedasticity F(18,58) = 0.76976 [0.7249]
  - RESET F(1,76) = 3.1217 [0.0813]
- Stability:
  - Recursive estimation 1986–2004: coefficient estimates relatively constant after initial sample; break-point Chow test does not reject constancy.

### Systems estimation and impulse-response analysis
- FIML three-variable system (∆p, ∆m, ∆e) corroborates quantity-theory predictions. Selected system estimates for the inflation equation:
  - ECM(-1) = 0.07**
  - ∆m3(-1) = 0.14**
  - ∆i*(-2) = 0.02*
  - ∆e(-1) = -0.001**
  - Dum94Q1 = 0.16**
  - Dum02Q2 = 0.17**
  - Dum02Q3 = -0.11**
- System dynamics:
  - Money equation (∆m): affected by lagged inflation and own lags; inflation two quarters ago positive impact, inflation four quarters ago negative → net positive.
  - Exchange rate equation (∆e): domestic inflation one quarter ago contributes to depreciation; broad money growth three quarters ago appreciates exchange rate; ECM for money demand not significant for ∆e.
- Impulse-response characterizations (text summary):
  - Positive one standard deviation shock to inflation:
    - Transitory but persistent positive impact on money, fades after 12 quarters.
    - Depreciates exchange rate permanently.
    - Cumulative response of real money balances indicates a permanent fall.
  - Money supply shock (one standard deviation):
    - Permanent effect on all nominal variables.
    - Exchange rate overshoots (depreciates temporarily above permanent level), then appreciates over ~10 quarters.
    - Inflation: falls in first quarter, rises sharply in second quarter, then subsides; cumulative nominal money increase suggests permanent increase in real money balances.
  - Exchange rate shock (depreciation, one standard deviation):
    - Sharp increase in inflation in first period, then dissipates.
    - Positive impact on money supply shows slow decay/persistence.

### Main conclusions and policy implications
- Empirical conclusions:
  - A stable money demand function exists for Madagascar over 1982–2004: predictable long-run relationship between broad money, the price level, real output, and foreign interest rates consistent with quantity theory.
  - Long-run effect of foreign interest rates is statistically insignificant (caution required).
  - Short-run dynamics: money-market disequilibrium has a lasting impact on inflation; inflation inertia is present (expectations largely determined by past events).
  - Policy variables, particularly broad money growth, can be effective in controlling inflation in the short run.
- Policy recommendations:
  1. Credibility of monetary targeting:
     - Existence of a stable money demand function implies the monetary targeting framework is credible and should help the central bank achieve monetary and inflation targets with greater accuracy.
     - Continued efforts to strengthen central bank capacity, develop indirect monetary instruments, and deepen the interbank money market are important to improve monetary policy effectiveness.
  2. Managing inflation inertia and credibility:
     - Because inflation is largely driven by past events, monetary policy tightening alone may not be adequately explained or credible.
     - Tight monetary policy to lower inflation should be complemented by an effective public relations campaign to limit its contractionary impact on economic growth.

*Source: _wp05236 - 1. Correlation Matrix; Section VI (excerpt).*

### 1. Correlation Matrix  .................................................................................................

### _wp05236 - 1. Correlation Matrix

### Introduction
- Context: Countries with underdeveloped financial markets generally rely on the existence of a stable money demand function for formulation and conduct of efficient monetary policy.
- Traditional literature approach: postulates a money demand function and specifies how expansionary monetary policy creates a disequilibrium in the money and goods markets that is eliminated over time through increases in the price level.
- Prior Madagascar studies cited: Toujas-Bernaté (1996) and Sacerdoti and Xiao (2001) support a stable long-run relationship between monetary aggregates and inflation.

### Purpose, sample, and challenges
- Purpose: Model the determinants of inflation in Madagascar over the period 1982-2004 to strengthen the effectiveness of monetary policy.
- Sample period: 1982-2004.
- Data and estimation challenges:
  - Numerous structural shifts, policy reversions, terms of trade shocks, adverse weather conditions (cyclones), and political crises affecting the economy.
  - Data deficiencies in terms of coverage, time span, and statistical properties.
  - Recent period (since 2001) characterized by highly volatile consumer price index (CPI) while broad money expanded by about 17 percent on average.
  - Flexible exchange rate regime in the recent years covered.

### Key findings from the empirical work
- Long-run relationships:
  - Confirmation of a stable long-run relationship between broad money, domestic prices, real income, and foreign interest rates.
- Dynamics and impacts:
  - A disequilibrium in the money market has a lasting inflationary impact.
  - Changes in the monetary aggregates, the exchange rate, and foreign interest rates have a significant impact on inflation.
  - Evidence of inflation inertia, suggesting that the central bank does not adequately explain its monetary policy stance to the public.
- Extensions vs. prior work:
  - This study extends the literature to recent years, including a period with a flexible exchange rate regime.

### Model, methods, and structure of the paper
- Empirical framework:
  - Builds on the institutional setup for the conduct of monetary policy.
  - Uses cointegration tests and error-correction modeling; systems estimation and impulse response analysis are also employed.
- Paper organization (sections referenced):
  - Section II: institutional framework and evolution of inflation and macro variables.
  - Section III: model specification used in the empirical work.
  - Section IV: data issues and results from cointegration tests.
  - Section V: results from estimating the single equation error-correction model for inflation, evaluation of statistical properties, systems estimation, and impulse response analysis.

*Source: _wp05236 - 1. Correlation Matrix (excerpt: Introduction and paper overview).*

### Section VI presents the main conclusions.

### _wp05236 - Section VI presents the main conclusions.

### Monetary policy framework and macroeconomic developments
- Background:
  - Madagascar entered the 1980s with substantial internal and external imbalances after decades of state interventions.
  - Exchange rate regime history: peg to French franc until 1982; crawling peg 1982–1994 with frequent step devaluations (notably June 1987); floating regime and interbank FX auction system introduced in 1994.
  - Financial liberalization: private and foreign banks allowed from early 1990s; treasury bills market and money market introduced mid-1990s.
  - Political crisis in 2002 caused a sharp decline in real GDP growth; recovery began in 2003.
- Monetary policy framework:
  - Primary objective (BCM charter of 1994): “maintain price stability.”
  - Operational framework: monetary programming targeting annual growth of broad money (M3, including foreign currency deposits) as intermediate target; M3 target translated into base money operating guide using a three-month moving average money multiplier.
  - Instruments:
    - Predominantly direct instruments; statutory reserve requirement ratio adjusted to regulate base money and liquidity.
    - A basic rate (taux directeur) is announced to influence inflation expectations and serve as benchmark for other rates.
    - Indirect market instruments exist (treasury bills, money market) but chronic excess liquidity has hampered positive real rates and interbank market development.
- Recent policy actions and inflation dynamics:
  - After 2002 slump, BCM lowered reserve requirement ratio in October 2002 and January 2003; monetary policy expansionary until early 2004.
  - In 2004, successive tightening measures including three consecutive reserve requirement increases raised treasury-bill rates and absorbed excess liquidity; deposit rates remained relatively stable.
  - Exchange rate adjustments in 2004 led to sharp inflation increases and negative real deposit rates; public holdings of treasury bills increased, weakening demand for real money balances.

### Model specification
- The inflation equation is an extension of a monetary disequilibrium model to an open economy with tradable and nontradable sectors.
- Key relations:
  - Aggregate price level: pt = λ ptN + (1-λ) ptT
  - Tradable price: ptT = pt* + et
  - Nontradable inflation linked to money disequilibrium: ∆ptN = φ[(mt – pt) – mdt]
  - Money demand depends on real income (yt), foreign interest rates (i*), and expected depreciation (∆e).
- Error-correction representation estimated (Equation (5)/(5b)) where the ECM corresponds to disequilibrium in the money market.

### Data, unit-root tests, and cointegration analysis
- Data:
  - Quarterly sample: 1982:Q1 to 2004:Q2.
  - Variables in logs except interest rates. CPI used is composite CPI; broad money is M3 including foreign exchange deposits.
  - Foreign interest rates proxied by yields on 10-year government bonds in France.
  - Nominal effective exchange rate defined as foreign currency per unit of local currency (an increase corresponds to an appreciation).
  - Real GDP interpolated from annual series by cubic method.
  - Dummy variables: dum94Q1 (switch to flexible FX regime and reforms in Q1 1994), dum02Q2 and dum02Q3 (political crisis in Q2 and Q3 2002).
- Unit-root and cointegration:
  - Standard ADF tests could not reject unit roots in level series; first differences reject unit root for all series (Table 2 results referenced).
  - Johansen (1988) procedure: maximal and trace eigenvalue statistics reject null of no cointegrating vector in favor of one cointegrating vector at the 5 and 1 percent levels, respectively.
  - Estimated long-run relationship (cointegrating vector):
    - m3 = 1.18p + 1.38y – 0.002i*  (equation (6))
  - Income elasticity ~ 1.38; test imposing unitary income elasticity not rejected: χ2(1)=(0.37)[0.55].
  - Restricted long-run money demand (in real terms):
    - m – p = 1.15y - 0.07i*  (equation (7))
  - Weak exogeneity tests: only foreign interest rates are weakly exogenous (Table 5); real money balances and output adjust to restore equilibrium.
  - VAR residual diagnostics show some issues (normality rejection for y and p*), but Johansen procedure remains applicable.

### Determinants of inflation (error-correction model results)
- Estimation details:
  - Dynamic error-correction model (Equation (8)) estimated with k = 4 lags, ECM from Equation (6), centered seasonal dummies; interpolated y excluded from dynamic equation.
  - Parsimonious restricted model reported (Table 6).
- Key estimated coefficients and implications (restricted model unless otherwise noted):
  - ECM(-1) coefficient = 0.07** (t-statistics reported); positive and significant.
    - Implies adjustment toward long-run equilibrium of domestic prices takes more than 2½ years (14 quarters).
  - Broad money growth (∆m3) coefficients: ∆m3 = 0.13** (contemporaneous) and lagged pattern consistent with money growth increasing inflation.
  - Foreign interest rates: ∆i*(-2) = 0.02** (significant with lag); implying higher foreign interest rates increase inflation via reduced demand for real money balances.
  - Exchange rate pass-through:
    - ∆e contemporaneous coefficient = -0.001** and ∆e(-1) = -0.001** (restricted model).
    - Text interpretation: coefficient on exchange rate is negative (-0.002), suggesting that a 10 percent depreciation will lead to 0.02 percent increase in inflation (very low pass-through).
  - Inflation inertia:
    - Sum of coefficients of lags of dependent variable < 1 (sum = 0.37) → no overshooting; presence of inertia.
  - Policy and shock dummies:
    - Dum94Q1 = 0.16**; Dum02Q2 = 0.17**; Dum02Q3 = -0.09** — financial reforms and 2002 political crisis had significant impacts, with reforms lowering inflation and crisis effects mixed.
  - Model fit:
    - R2 = 0.83 (unrestricted) and 0.80 (restricted).
- Diagnostics:
  - Restricted model diagnostic tests: AR(1-5) F(5,72) = 1.7773 [0.1284]; ARCH(1-4) F(4,69) = 0.35626 [0.8388]; normality χ2(2) = 0.85063 [0.6536]; heteroscedasticity F(18,58) = 0.76976 [0.7249]; RESET F(1,76) = 3.1217 [0.0813].
  - Recursive estimation 1986–2004: coefficient estimates relatively constant after initial sample; break-point Chow test does not reject constancy.

### Systems estimation and impulse responses
- FIML system estimates (Table 7) for the three-variable system (domestic prices ∆p, money ∆m, exchange rate ∆e) corroborate quantity-theory predictions.
  - Inflation equation (∆p) in system: ECM(-1) = 0.07**; ∆m3(-1) = 0.14**; ∆i*(-2) = 0.02*; ∆e(-1) = -0.001**; Dum94Q1 = 0.16**; Dum02Q2 = 0.17**; Dum02Q3 = -0.11**.
  - Money equation (∆m): affected by lagged inflation and own lags; inflation two quarters ago positive impact, inflation four quarters ago negative → net positive; exchange rate depreciation impacts inflation not money growth.
  - Exchange rate equation (∆e): domestic inflation one quarter ago contributes to depreciation; broad money growth three quarters ago appreciates exchange rate; ECM for money demand not significant for ∆e.
- Impulse-response findings (Figures 5 and 6; described in text):
  - One standard deviation positive shock to inflation:
    - Transitory but persistent positive impact on money, fades after 12 quarters.
    - Depreciates exchange rate permanently.
    - Cumulative response of real money balances indicates a permanent fall.
  - Money supply shock (one standard deviation):
    - Permanent effect on all nominal variables.
    - Exchange rate overshoots (depreciates temporarily above permanent level), then appreciates over ~10 quarters.
    - Inflation: falls in first quarter, rises sharply in second quarter, then subsides; cumulative nominal money increase suggests permanent increase in real money balances.
  - Exchange rate shock (depreciation, one standard deviation):
    - Sharp increase in inflation in first period, then dissipates.
    - Positive impact on money supply shows slow decay/persistence.

### Conclusion and policy implications
- Main empirical conclusions:
  - A stable money demand function exists for Madagascar over 1982–2004: a predictable long-run relationship between broad money, the price level, real output, and foreign interest rates consistent with quantity theory.
  - Long-run effect of foreign interest rates is statistically insignificant (caution required).
  - Short-run dynamics: money-market disequilibrium has a lasting impact on inflation; inflation inertia is present (expectations largely determined by past events).
  - Policy variables, particularly broad money growth, can be effective in controlling inflation in the short run.
- Policy implications:
  1. Credibility of monetary targeting:
     - Existence of a stable money demand function implies the monetary targeting framework is credible and should help the central bank achieve monetary and inflation targets with greater accuracy.
     - Continued efforts to strengthen central bank capacity, develop indirect monetary instruments, and deepen the interbank money market are important to improve monetary policy effectiveness.
  2. Managing inflation inertia and credibility:
     - Because inflation is largely driven by past events, monetary policy alone (tightening) may not be adequately explained or credible.
     - Tight monetary policy to lower inflation should be complemented by an effective public relations campaign to limit its contractionary impact on economic growth.

*Source: _wp05236 - Section VI presents the main conclusions. (PDF content provided).*

### References

### References

### Empirical studies on inflation and monetary policy
- Azam, Jean-Paul, 2001, “Inflation and Macroeconomic Instability in Madagascar,” African Development Review, African Development Bank, Vol. 13 (No. 2), pp. 175–201.  
- Blavy, Rodolphe, 2004, “Inflation and Monetary Pass-Through in Guinea,” IMF Working Paper No. 04/223 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).  
- Bleaney, Michael, 2000, “Exchange Rate Regimes and Inflation Persistence, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 47 (No. 3), pp. 387–402.  
- Burdekin, Richard C.K., and Pierre L. Siklos, 1999, “Exchange Rate Regimes and Shifts in Inflation Persistence: Does Nothing Else Matter?” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 31 (May), pp. 235–47.  
- Callen, Tiro, and Dongkoo Chang, 1999, “Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in India,” IMF Working Paper No. 99/119 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).  
- Lim, Cheng Hoon, and Laura Papi, 1997, “An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in Turkey,” IMF Working Paper No. 97/170 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).  
- Moser, Gary, 1995, “Main Determinants of Inflation in Nigeria,” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 42, (July), pp. 270–89.  
- Sacerdoti, Emilio, and Yuan Xiao, 2001, “Inflation Dynamics in Madagascar, 1971–2000,” IMF Working Paper No. 01/168 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).  
- Toujas-Bernaté, Joel, 1996, “Inflation and Monetary Policy in Madagascar,” in Madagascar–Selected Issues and Statistical Annex, IMF Staff Country Report No. 96/59, by Pierre Dhonte and others (Washington: International Monetary Fund).  
- Williams, Oral, and Olumuyiwa S. Adedeji, 2004, “Inflation Dynamics in the Dominican Republic,” IMF Working Paper No. 04/29 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).  

### Money demand, cointegration, and econometric methods
- Celasun, Oya, and Mangel Goswami, 2002, “An Analysis of Money Demand and Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran,” IMF Working Paper No. 02/205 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).  
- Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994, “Five Alternative Methods of Estimating Long-Run Equilibrium Relationships,” Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 60 (January-February), pp. 203–33.  
- Johansen, Soren, 1988, “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 12, (June-September), pp. 231–54.  
- _______, and Katarina Juselius, 1990, “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration, with Applications to the Demand for Money,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 52 (May), pp. 169–210.  
- Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994, “Five Alternative Methods of Estimating Long-Run Equilibrium Relationships,” Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 60 (January-February), pp. 203–33.  
- Sriram, Subramanian S., “A Survey of Recent Empirical Money Demand Studies,” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 47 (No. 3), pp. 334–65.  
- Doornik, Jurgen A., and David F. Hendry, 1997, Empirical Econometric Modeling Using PcFiml 9.0 for Windows (London: International Thomson Business Press).  
- Chow, Gregory C., 1960, “Tests of Equality Between Sets of Coefficients in Two Linear Regressions,” Econometrica, Vol. 28 (July), pp. 591–605.  
- Dickey, David, and Wayne A., Fuller, 1981, “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root,” Econometrica, Vol. 49 (July), pp. 1057–72.  

### Country-specific IMF working papers and studies
- Ghosh, Atish, Ann-Marie Gulde, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Holger Wold, 1995, “Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?” IMF Working Paper No. 95/121 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).  
- Kalra, Sanjay, 1998, “Inflation and Money Demand in Albania,” IMF Working Paper No. 98/101 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).  
- Khan, Moshin and Malcolm Knight, 1991, “Stabilization in Developing Countries,” in Macroeconomic Models for Adjustment in Developing Countries, ed. by Moshin Khan, Peter Montiel, and Nadeem Ul Haque (Washington: International Monetary Fund).  
- Kuijs, Louis, 1998, “Determinants of Inflation, Exchange Rate, and Output in Nigeria,” IMF Working Paper No. 98/160 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).  
- Maliszewski, Wojciech, 2003, “Modeling Inflation in Georgia,” IMF Working Paper No. 03/212 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).  
- Nachega, Jean-Claude, 2001a, “A Cointegration Analysis of Broad Money Demand in Cameroon,” IMF Working Paper No. 01/26 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).  
- _______, 2001b, “Financial Liberalization, Money Demand, and Inflation in Uganda,” IMF Working Paper No. 01/118 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).  

### Data sources
- IMF, International Financial Statistics, various years (Washington: International Monetary Fund).  

*Source: _wp05236 - References*

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