## _wp06141

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---

### I. Introduction — purpose and scope
- Discusses implications for statistical programs of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in advance of a planned currency union.
- Primary focus: principles of monetary statistics development; also covers broader general economic statistics needed for executing monetary policy.
- Statistics must support both reliable comparable national statistics and statistics for the union as a whole, produced by aggregation and consolidation of national data.
- Timeliness and coordination among national compilers are required so union statistics can be timely and useful.
- Historical series for the union will need to be constructed from national statistics back to periods before the union’s existence.
- The public face of the union will be the union-level statistics, which can affect international confidence and economic decisions (investment, currency use).

### II. Background on the Gulf Cooperation Council currency union — context and timeline
- GCC membership:
  - Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
- Key dates and decisions:
  - GCC established in 1981.
  - December 2001: agreement for an economic union including a common market and a monetary and economic union.
  - Customs union moved forward to January 2003; common customs tariff of 5 percent on all goods from outside the GCC (except some previously exempted goods).
  - Agreement instructed adoption of the U.S. dollar as a common basis for GCC currencies by year-end 2002.
  - Financial and Economic Cooperation Committee directed to agree by year-end 2005 on measures of economic performance needed for the monetary union.
  - A single currency would be created on January 1, 2010.
- Policy and institutional preparation:
  - Committee of GCC central bank governors and a high-level technical committee (formed in 2004) are advancing convergence factor selection and technical preparations.
  - Reported convergence criteria focus on inflation, debt, and reserves; possibly the European Union standard that public debt must not exceed 60 percent of GDP.
- Strategic rationale (IMF Managing Director Rodrigo de Rato, late 2004):
  - Cut dependence on volatile petroleum revenues, address unemployment, and develop convergence criteria, common data standards, and institutions.

### III. Preparatory statistical work — experiences from the European Monetary Union (EMU)
- Institutional arrangements and roles:
  - 1991: Committee on Monetary, Financial, and Balance of Payments Statistics established by the European Council.
  - Eurostat: produced GDP, price indices, fiscal statistics for convergence criteria and a broad range of macroeconomic statistics; shared responsibility with the ECB for balance of payments for the euro area.
  - EMI/ECB: had a Statistics Division/Directorate; not permitted to compile statistics until just before monetary union inauguration.
  - 1992: Working Group on Statistics (WGS) composed of heads of central bank statistics functions; later became the ECB Statistics Committee (STC).
  - Topic-specific working groups and ad hoc task forces developed technical practices under STC oversight.
- Conceptual approaches:
  - Decentralized "subsidiarity" doctrine: national authorities collect basic information; data are transmitted to the ECB for aggregation and consolidation.
  - "Layered approach": national central banks collect harmonized statistics appropriate for each economy, then transmit upward for union-level compilation.
  - Align with the European System of Accounts / System of National Accounts to allow construction of union statistics from preexisting systems.
- Technical infrastructure:
  - Development of a common electronic data exchange system (GESMES/CB) and a standard data-coding system to transmit data rapidly and in common format.
- Practical lessons:
  - Early statistical work proceeded while membership and policy instruments were still uncertain, requiring flexibility.
  - Dry runs were used to test procedures and compile consolidated union statistics before launch.
  - Need for surveys, monitoring, implementation reports, and coordination of release procedures.

### IV. Principles for statistics for a currency union — guidance and policy implications
- Core principle:
  - The union requires single common monetary policy supported by reliable, current union-level information on the union and policy instruments.
- Aggregate and consolidation requirements:
  - Member-country statistics must be aggregable and consolidatable; statisticians must construct some statistics as if the union were a single country.
  - Introduce statistical distinction between positions vis-à-vis other member countries and nonmember countries (example: banks compile separate positions vis-à-vis residents of other monetary union member states and non-MUMS).
- Common standards and methodology:
  - A common set of statistical standards must be applied by all members to enable aggregation and consolidation.
  - Convergence criteria for membership require high quality nonfinancial and financial statistics with well-defined common methodology available prior to start-up.
- Institutional choices:
  - Decide between centralized compilation and decentralized compilation under subsidiarity.
  - Laws or regulations may be needed to specify production of core union statistics and to make statistical standards binding; sanctions can discourage noncompliance.
  - Potential synergies if reserve requirements and statistical reporting use the same reporting basis.
- Operational and practical issues:
  - Early definition of the money-issuing sector universe so statisticians can engage banks and other money issuers in reporting and accounting system design.
  - Ensure data collection and transmission to a central statistical operation are timely; timeliness is critical because union statistics are only available once all reporters have submitted.
  - Use of a common messaging format or data exchange protocol is essential.
  - Survey user needs and communicate feasibility and prioritization back to users.
  - Distinguish between short-term approaches (using existing unharmonized data) and steady-state approaches (harmonized statistics once systems are in place).
  - Anticipate increased resource needs for statistics at both national and supranational levels; do not assume national resources will be freed up automatically.
  - Expect demands for historical time series for newly developed series and apply innovative methods where necessary.
  - Consider a "gateway" approach for IMF reporting (example: ECB sending EMU monetary data to the IMF) to ensure timeliness and consistency and reduce national reporting burden.
  - Plan for potential expansion of the union and statistical challenges of integrating new members and constructing historical series for an expanded union.
- Flexibility and monitoring:
  - Flexibility is required because some political and technical decisions will be made late; implementation monitoring and periodic reporting on gaps and priorities are important.
  - Dry runs and coordination of national and union message releases are recommended to test systems and ensure coherent public communication.

### Statistical preparations must start early
- EMU preparations at Eurostat and the EMI began "six to seven years before the start of the union."
- Establishing standards, central operations, and implementing program changes at the national level required that lead time; even so, "just prior to the launch of the EMU, statistical operations were very hectic, and some things could not get done."
- Sturm and Siegfried (2005): “steps toward the harmonization of concepts and the preparation of appropriate aggregation and consolidation methods have to be taken in good time prior to the start of Monetary Union. Their implementation in all prospective participating countries has to start sufficiently far in advance, as it generally involves a significant lead time” (p. 68).

### What statistics must be prepared?
- Statisticians should distinguish among multiple statistical types relevant for unions:
  - Convergence criteria
  - Core set of statistics to operate the union
  - Statistics on external aspects of a currency union
  - Broad macroeconomic and market statistics to evaluate conditions and monetary policy effectiveness
  - Statistics for public dissemination
  - Specialized statistics tied to economic and institutional conditions

- A. Convergence criteria
  - Purpose:
    - Serve as tests for entry or as "convergence benchmarks" for monitoring.
    - Require high-quality nonfinancial and financial statistics constructed according to a well-defined common methodology prior to start-up.
  - Desirable features:
    - Indicators should ideally be available on a quarterly basis with good timeliness.
    - Where criteria are decisive for joining, they should have legal status and be assessed by an independent authority (e.g., union statistical office or union central bank).
    - Criteria should monitor both individual economies and the union as a whole, and align with reporting requirements to international bodies like the IMF.
  - GCC context:
    - Convergence criteria for the GCC Currency Union are under development and "roughly appear to correspond to the EMU criteria."
    - Some in the region have considered that an inflation criterion "may not be needed because the driving forces for inflation are likely to be very similar throughout the GCC."
    - Absence of long-term borrowing by GCC governments may make a government debt measure unnecessary.
    - Sturm and Siegfried (2005): criteria for the GCC will help ensure high level of convergence in the monetary field while inducing greater convergence in fiscal situations; "the quality, availability, and comparability of statistical data for the GCC member states needs to be ensured" (p. 6).
  - EMU criteria (listed in source):
    - The level of inflation: measured via the consumer price index; in the GCC a common index should be developed.
    - The level of interest rates: short- and long-term rates on government securities or other comparable securities; methodology should consider monitoring single-currency-area interest rates.
    - The stock of government debt: in absolute value and as a percentage of GDP, calculated in a comparable way.
    - The evolution of public spending: must distinguish real transactions from simple changes in value.

- B. The core currency union statistics
  - Core sets will depend on the union's policy framework (e.g., price stability focus requires price indices).
  - Monetary statistics are a core dataset:
    - Challenges: harmonizing data from national banking systems, defining coverage of financial institutions, collecting detailed information, implementing uniform timeliness.
    - Banks’ balance sheets provide most information needed to assess evolution of assets; comparable national data allow aggregation and consolidation for union-level money measures.
    - Important methodological task: deriving flows from changes in reported stocks by netting out nontransactions (revaluations, devaluations, loan write-offs).
  - Most relevant outputs:
    - Consolidated balance sheet for the central bank and commercial banks for monetary aggregates.
    - Clearing system statistics (example: TARGET in the ECB context).
    - Policy interest rates and transactions in securities and deposits used for policy.
    - Required bank reserves.
    - Currency issuance and retirement and movements of currency and negotiable instruments included in money stock between union members (useful for allocating seigniorage income and retirement expenses).

- C. Statistics on the external aspects of a currency union
  - Required statistics:
    - The exchange rate (market, nominal, and effective).
    - The international reserves of the union; adoption of the IMF’s Data Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity (Kester, 2001) is suggested.
    - Balance of payments and international investment position, with consolidation that nets out transactions and positions between union members and requires common classification and bilateral reconciliation.
  - Note: nature of reserves changes in a union because claims in former member currencies cease to be reserves; union may control assets held in individual countries.

- D. Statistics on the macroeconomy and the effectiveness of policy
  - Analysts need a wide range of macroeconomic and financial market statistics; examples from Europe include:
    - Financial accounts—Monetary Union Financial Accounts in Europe.
    - Asset prices—real estate, equities, and debt securities.
    - Financial market statistics—comprehensive databases of securities markets and interest rates.
    - GDP and its components.
    - Fiscal accounts—government debt and deficit monitored annually for euro area membership.
    - Holdings of euro instruments outside the euro area.

- E. Statistics for dissemination to the public
  - Expectations and issues:
    - Public and market participants will demand rapid, reliable data dissemination (e.g., via the Internet).
    - Ensure union and member statistics convey the same message and that release sequencing does not mislead or advantage market segments.
    - Strong pressure for production of historical time series.

- F. Specialized statistics
  - Areas requiring new work or methodological development:
    - Petroleum and energy statistics: ongoing IMF data dissemination initiatives; need for additional metadata and transparency initiatives such as the Joint Oil Data Initiative and the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative; possible separate GDP estimates for petroleum/gas sector and other sectors.
    - Workers’ transfers and Hawala transfers: important for capital flow and domestic investment analysis; flow channeling outside standard banking channels poses statistical problems.
    - Electronic money and transfers: innovations could significantly affect monetary control and policy.
    - Islamic Financial Institutions: growth will require following their role; significant methodological issues in integrating them into standard statistical frameworks.
    - Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs): information on strengths and exposures of GCC financial systems; regional FSIs might be advantageous; IMF Compilation Guide for Financial Soundness Indicators (IMF, 2006) provides guidance.

### Conclusions and policy recommendations
- Each currency union is unique; the GCC Currency Union could take a distinct, potentially loose structure, but reliable and flexible statistical programs are essential regardless of design.
- Institutional implications:
  - The process requires professionalism and institution-building at national and union levels.
  - Consideration should be given to creating an institution "perhaps along the lines of Eurostat" to provide high quality statistical information (IMF Managing Director Rodrigo de Rato).
  - Initially, financial statistics work might be done in a separate institution or as part of a Eurostat-like structure, but ultimately authority for monetary and financial sector statistics will likely reside within the GCC central banking institution established.
- Timing and resource implications:
  - Ultimate statistical demands will be large; substantial lead time is needed to build institutional and legal infrastructures and begin methodical data collection and compilation.
  - The work should begin "very soon" to support a successful launch of the GCC Currency Union.
- Assistance:
  - The IMF stands ready to assist with policy advice, technical assistance, and sharing experience from other regions (De Rato).

* _wp06141 - References (excerpt).*

### References..............................................................................................................

### _wp06141 - References..............................................................................................................

### I. INTRODUCTION — purpose and scope
- The paper discusses implications for statistical programs of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in advance of a planned currency union.
- Primary focus: principles of monetary statistics development; also covers broader general economic statistics needed for executing monetary policy.
- Emphasis that statistics must support both reliable comparable national statistics and statistics for the union as a whole, produced by aggregation and consolidation of national data.
- Timeliness and coordination among national compilers are required so union statistics can be timely and useful.
- Historical series for the union will need to be constructed from national statistics back to periods before the union’s existence.
- The public face of the union will be the union-level statistics, which can affect international confidence and economic decisions (investment, currency use).

### II. BACKGROUND ON THE GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL CURRENCY UNION — context and timeline
- GCC membership: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
- Key dates and decisions:
  - GCC established in 1981.
  - December 2001: agreement for an economic union including a common market and a monetary and economic union.
  - Customs union moved forward to January 2003; common customs tariff of 5 percent on all goods from outside the GCC (except some previously exempted goods).
  - Agreement instructed adoption of the U.S. dollar as a common basis for GCC currencies by year-end 2002.
  - Financial and Economic Cooperation Committee directed to agree by year-end 2005 on measures of economic performance needed for the monetary union.
  - A single currency would be created on January 1, 2010.
- Policy and institutional preparation:
  - Committee of GCC central bank governors and a high-level technical committee (formed in 2004) are advancing convergence factor selection and technical preparations.
  - Reported convergence criteria focus on inflation, debt, and reserves; possibly the European Union standard that public debt must not exceed 60 percent of GDP.
- Strategic rationale noted by IMF Managing Director Rodrigo de Rato (late 2004): cut dependence on volatile petroleum revenues, address unemployment, and develop convergence criteria, common data standards, and institutions.

### III. PREPARATORY STATISTICAL WORK — experiences from the European Monetary Union (EMU)
- EMU provided a comprehensive, multi-decade approach with institutional coordination among EMI/ECB, Eurostat, and national authorities.
- Key institutional arrangements and roles:
  - 1991: Committee on Monetary, Financial, and Balance of Payments Statistics established by the European Council to set direction and allocate responsibilities.
  - Eurostat: produced GDP, price indices, fiscal statistics for convergence criteria and a broad range of macroeconomic statistics; shared responsibility with the ECB for balance of payments for the euro area.
  - EMI/ECB: had a Statistics Division/Directorate; not permitted to compile statistics until just before monetary union inauguration.
  - 1992: Working Group on Statistics (WGS) composed of heads of central bank statistics functions; later became the ECB Statistics Committee (STC).
  - Topic-specific working groups and ad hoc task forces developed technical practices under STC oversight.
- Conceptual approaches applied:
  - Decentralized "subsidiarity" doctrine: national authorities collect basic information; data are transmitted to the ECB for aggregation and consolidation.
  - "Layered approach": national central banks collect harmonized statistics appropriate for each economy, then transmit upward for union-level compilation.
  - Emphasis on aligning with the European System of Accounts / System of National Accounts to allow construction of union statistics from preexisting systems.
- Technical infrastructure:
  - Development of a common electronic data exchange system (GESMES/CB) and a standard data-coding system to transmit data rapidly and in common format.
- Practical lessons:
  - Early statistical work proceeded while membership and policy instruments were still uncertain, requiring flexibility.
  - Dry runs were used to test procedures and compile consolidated union statistics before launch.
  - EMU experience highlighted the need for surveys, monitoring, implementation reports, and coordination of release procedures.

### IV. PRINCIPLES FOR STATISTICS FOR A CURRENCY UNION — guidance and policy implications
- Core principle: the union requires single common monetary policy supported by reliable, current union-level information on the union and policy instruments.
- Aggregate and consolidation requirements:
  - Member-country statistics must be aggregable and consolidatable; statisticians must construct some statistics as if the union were a single country.
  - Introduce statistical distinction between positions vis-à-vis other member countries and nonmember countries (example: banks compile separate positions vis-à-vis residents of other monetary union member states and non-MUMS).
- Common standards and methodology:
  - A common set of statistical standards must be applied by all members to enable aggregation and consolidation.
  - Convergence criteria for membership require high quality nonfinancial and financial statistics with well-defined common methodology available prior to start-up.
- Institutional choices:
  - Decide between centralized compilation (as in some African and Caribbean unions) and decentralized compilation under subsidiarity (as in Europe).
  - Laws or regulations may be needed to specify production of core union statistics and to make statistical standards binding; sanctions can discourage noncompliance.
  - Potential synergies if reserve requirements and statistical reporting use the same reporting basis.
- Operational and practical issues:
  - Early definition of the money-issuing sector universe so statisticians can engage banks and other money issuers in reporting and accounting system design.
  - Ensure data collection and transmission to a central statistical operation are timely; timeliness is critical because union statistics are only available once all reporters have submitted.
  - Use of a common messaging format or data exchange protocol is essential.
  - Survey user needs and communicate feasibility and prioritization back to users.
  - Distinguish between short-term approaches (using existing unharmonized data) and steady-state approaches (harmonized statistics once systems are in place).
  - Anticipate increased resource needs for statistics at both national and supranational levels; do not assume national resources will be freed up automatically.
  - Expect demands for historical time series for newly developed series and apply innovative methods where necessary.
  - Consider a "gateway" approach for IMF reporting (example: ECB sending EMU monetary data to the IMF) to ensure timeliness and consistency and reduce national reporting burden.
  - Plan for potential expansion of the union and the statistical challenges of integrating new members and constructing historical series for an expanded union.
- Flexibility and monitoring:
  - Flexibility is required because some political and technical decisions will be made late; implementation monitoring and periodic reporting on gaps and priorities are important.
  - Dry runs and coordination of national and union message releases are recommended to test systems and ensure coherent public communication.

*Italicized source attribution: _wp06141 - References (excerpt)._

### conclusions can be drawn...and comparisons may even be misleading. The European

### _wp06141 - conclusions can be drawn...and comparisons may even be misleading. The European

### Statistical preparations must start early
- Statistical preparations for the EMU at Eurostat and the EMI began "six to seven years before the start of the union."
- Establishing standards, central operations, and implementing program changes at the national level required that lead time; even so, "just prior to the launch of the EMU, statistical operations were very hectic, and some things could not get done."
- Sturm and Siegfried (2005): “steps toward the harmonization of concepts and the preparation of appropriate aggregation and consolidation methods have to be taken in good time prior to the start of Monetary Union. Their implementation in all prospective participating countries has to start sufficiently far in advance, as it generally involves a significant lead time” (p. 68).

### What statistics must be prepared?
- Statisticians should distinguish among multiple statistical types relevant for unions:
  - Convergence criteria
  - Core set of statistics to operate the union
  - Statistics on external aspects of a currency union
  - Broad macroeconomic and market statistics to evaluate conditions and monetary policy effectiveness
  - Statistics for public dissemination
  - Specialized statistics tied to economic and institutional conditions

#### A. Convergence criteria
- Purpose:
  - Serve as tests for entry or as "convergence benchmarks" for monitoring.
  - Require high-quality nonfinancial and financial statistics constructed according to a well-defined common methodology prior to start-up.
- Desirable features:
  - Indicators should ideally be available on a quarterly basis with good timeliness.
  - Where criteria are decisive for joining, they should have legal status and be assessed by an independent authority (e.g., union statistical office or union central bank).
  - Criteria should monitor both individual economies and the union as a whole, and align with reporting requirements to international bodies like the IMF.
- GCC context:
  - Convergence criteria for the GCC Currency Union are under development and "roughly appear to correspond to the EMU criteria."
  - Some in the region have considered that an inflation criterion "may not be needed because the driving forces for inflation are likely to be very similar throughout the GCC."
  - Absence of long-term borrowing by GCC governments may make a government debt measure unnecessary.
  - Sturm and Siegfried (2005): criteria for the GCC will help ensure high level of convergence in the monetary field while inducing greater convergence in fiscal situations; "the quality, availability, and comparability of statistical data for the GCC member states needs to be ensured" (p. 6).
- EMU criteria (listed in source):
  - The level of inflation: measured via the consumer price index; in the GCC a common index should be developed.
  - The level of interest rates: short- and long-term rates on government securities or other comparable securities; methodology should consider monitoring single-currency-area interest rates.
  - The stock of government debt: in absolute value and as a percentage of GDP, calculated in a comparable way.
  - The evolution of public spending: must distinguish real transactions from simple changes in value.

#### B. The core currency union statistics
- Core sets will depend on the union's policy framework (e.g., price stability focus requires price indices).
- Monetary statistics are a core dataset:
  - Challenges: harmonizing data from national banking systems, defining coverage of financial institutions, collecting detailed information, implementing uniform timeliness.
  - Banks’ balance sheets provide most information needed to assess evolution of assets; comparable national data allow aggregation and consolidation for union-level money measures.
  - Important methodological task: deriving flows from changes in reported stocks by netting out nontransactions (revaluations, devaluations, loan write-offs).
- Most relevant outputs:
  - Consolidated balance sheet for the central bank and commercial banks for monetary aggregates.
  - Clearing system statistics (example: TARGET in the ECB context).
  - Policy interest rates and transactions in securities and deposits used for policy.
  - Required bank reserves.
  - Currency issuance and retirement and movements of currency and negotiable instruments included in money stock between union members (useful for allocating seigniorage income and retirement expenses).

#### C. Statistics on the external aspects of a currency union
- Required statistics:
  - The exchange rate (market, nominal, and effective).
  - The international reserves of the union; adoption of the IMF’s Data Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity (Kester, 2001) is suggested.
  - Balance of payments and international investment position, with consolidation that nets out transactions and positions between union members and requires common classification and bilateral reconciliation.
- Note: nature of reserves changes in a union because claims in former member currencies cease to be reserves; union may control assets held in individual countries.

#### D. Statistics on the macroeconomy and the effectiveness of policy
- Analysts need a wide range of macroeconomic and financial market statistics; examples from Europe include:
  - Financial accounts—Monetary Union Financial Accounts in Europe.
  - Asset prices—real estate, equities, and debt securities.
  - Financial market statistics—comprehensive databases of securities markets and interest rates.
  - GDP and its components.
  - Fiscal accounts—government debt and deficit monitored annually for euro area membership.
  - Holdings of euro instruments outside the euro area.

#### E. Statistics for dissemination to the public
- Expectations and issues:
  - Public and market participants will demand rapid, reliable data dissemination (e.g., via the Internet).
  - Ensure union and member statistics convey the same message and that release sequencing does not mislead or advantage market segments.
  - Strong pressure for production of historical time series.

#### F. Specialized statistics
- Areas requiring new work or methodological development:
  - Petroleum and energy statistics: ongoing IMF data dissemination initiatives; need for additional metadata and transparency initiatives such as the Joint Oil Data Initiative and the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative; possible separate GDP estimates for petroleum/gas sector and other sectors.
  - Workers’ transfers and Hawala transfers: important for capital flow and domestic investment analysis; flow channeling outside standard banking channels poses statistical problems.
  - Electronic money and transfers: innovations could significantly affect monetary control and policy.
  - Islamic Financial Institutions: growth will require following their role; significant methodological issues in integrating them into standard statistical frameworks.
  - Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs): information on strengths and exposures of GCC financial systems; regional FSIs might be advantageous; IMF Compilation Guide for Financial Soundness Indicators (IMF, 2006) provides guidance.

### Conclusions and policy recommendations
- Each currency union is unique; the GCC Currency Union could take a distinct, potentially loose structure, but reliable and flexible statistical programs are essential regardless of design.
- Key institutional implications:
  - The process requires professionalism and institution-building at national and union levels.
  - Consideration should be given to creating an institution "perhaps along the lines of Eurostat" to provide high quality statistical information (IMF Managing Director Rodrigo de Rato).
  - Initially, financial statistics work might be done in a separate institution or as part of a Eurostat-like structure, but ultimately authority for monetary and financial sector statistics will likely reside within the GCC central banking institution established.
- Timing and resource implications:
  - Ultimate statistical demands will be large; substantial lead time is needed to build institutional and legal infrastructures and begin methodical data collection and compilation.
  - The work should begin "very soon" to support a successful launch of the GCC Currency Union.
- Assistance:
  - The IMF stands ready to assist with policy advice, technical assistance, and sharing experience from other regions (De Rato).

*Source: _wp06141 - conclusions can be drawn...and comparisons may even be misleading. The European*

---


_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2006/_wp06141.pdf_
