## _wp08156

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### Overview: energy challenges and motivation
- Many low-income countries have diverse and often abundant energy sources but “their energy sectors are typically immensely underdeveloped.”
- Energy sector development is crucial to sustained economic development; Africa’s current energy problems have “significant growth- and welfare-reducing effects.”
- Despite abundant endowments, fuel imports constitute a large share of Africa’s total imports and consume a significant proportion of scarce foreign exchange.
- Electricity and petroleum product costs in Africa are significantly higher than in other regions, reducing competitiveness.
- Small national market sizes, huge investment requirements, and economies of scale point to the need for regional solutions.
- Widespread use of wood-fuels contributes to deforestation and desertification.

### Purpose and scope of the paper
- General framework to analyze macro-critical energy sectors in low-income countries; applied to Côte d’Ivoire.
- Key objective: monitor and project physical and financial flows, including fiscal revenues; perform consistency checks on data; project future flows coherently to inform policymakers on fiscal revenue calculation, medium-term trends, reform needs, transparency, governance, and efficiency.
- Energy sector definition: a) oil and natural gas production and distribution; b) refinery and production and distribution of petroleum products; c) electricity production and distribution.
- Special emphasis on government involvement and interlinkages across subsectors (crude oil → refinery; natural gas → refinery and electricity).

### Key descriptive findings for Côte d’Ivoire (historical and projected)
- Combined oil, gas, electricity and fuel production accounted for 9.9 percent of GDP in 2006, up from 6.7 percent in 2004.
- Crude oil production:
  - 2003: 7.6 million barrels
  - 2006: 22.2 million barrels
  - Projected around 26 million barrels in 2009 (note: 2007 production slowed due to technical exploration problems)
  - Almost all Ivoirien oil is exported.
- Natural gas production:
  - Fluctuated around a 2003-2006 average production of 53 million MMBTU
  - Used by domestic electricity producers and the local refinery
- Electricity:
  - A substantial part of domestic electricity production is exported.
- Refinery:
  - One of the largest in the region; produces car, jet and heavy fuels for domestic consumption and exports
  - Uses mostly imported, but also some local, crude oil
  - Initially enjoyed high protection; protection was reduced over time as competitiveness improved
- Exports and government revenue:
  - In 2006, exports of crude oil and petroleum products (percent of total exports) exceeded cocoa exports for the first time.
  - Total government revenue from oil, gas and petroleum products:
    - 2003: 3.4 percent of total revenue (estimated)
    - 2006: 11.1 percent
    - Decreased in 2007 due to production slowdown
    - Projected to grow to a maximum of 14.2 percent in 2009

### Key physical and financial flows (2005 selected figures)
- Crude oil production (2005):
  - Domestic consumption: 33.6 mln barrels
  - Private Sector: 11.2 mln barrels — 281.8 bln CFAF
  - Petroci: 1.2 mln barrels — 30.1 bln CFAF
  - Export: 9.6 mln barrels — 281.4 bln CFAF
  - Government: 2.0 mln barrels — 53.1 bln CFAF
- Natural gas production (2005):
  - Domestic consumption: 51.3 ml MMBTU — 105.1 bln CFAF
  - Private Sector: 20.9 ml MMBTU — 46.3 bln CFAF
  - Petroci: 5.2 ml MMBTU — 11.6 bln CFAF
  - Export: 0.0 ml MMBTU — 0.0 bln CFAF
  - Government: 25.2 ml MMBTU — 47.2 bln CFAF
- Refinery and petroleum products (2005):
  - Domestic consumption: 902.0 1000 MT
  - Crude oil imports: 28.8 mln barrels
  - Refinery production: 3832.0 1000 MT — 231.9 bln CFAF
  - Refinery total values shown: 836.6 bln CFAF and 985.0 bln CFAF (figure displays multiple flow valuations)
  - Exports: 2930.0 1000 MT — 753.2 bln CFAF
- Electricity production (2005):
  - Total production: 4475.3 GWh
  - Domestic consumption: 3080.0 GWh — 279.9 bln CFAF (production valuation), 192.6 bln CFAF (consumption valuation)
  - Export: 1395.3 GWh — 47.4 bln CFAF
- Source for figures: Ivoirien authorities; and IMF staff estimates.

### Simple energy sector model: structure and accounting relationships
- Trace crude oil and natural gas production separately; production is shared among private firms, state-owned company (soc / Petroci), and the government through PSAs and royalties.
- Aggregate production by agent = sum over individual fields (equations (1)–(4) in source).
- Government sales, swaps, or in-kind use explicitly modelled; swaps (oil↔gas) monitored because deviations from market-implied swap rates imply implicit subsidies or taxes (equations (5)–(7)).
- Domestic supply–demand linkages:
  - Assumption: refinery is the only domestic consumer of crude oil; refinery and electricity sectors are the only domestic consumers of natural gas (equations (8)–(9)).
- Government revenues from oil and gas computed using international prices (p, WEO), exchange rates (e), field-specific discounts/markups (d), royalties (ρ), and state-owned company profit shares α (equations (10a)–(10b)).
- Refinery sector model: single refinery producing multiple products from crude oil and natural gas (equations (11a)–(11b)); product supply-demand identity (equation (12)); domestic product prices function of international prices, exchange rate, refinery protection, transport costs, two types of product taxes, and other costs (equation (13)); central government revenue includes product taxation and government’s share of refinery profits (equations (14a)–(14b)).
- Electricity sector model: production uses natural gas, fuel oils or water; multiple producers possible (equation (15)); net production accounts for technical and non-technical losses; production = domestic consumption + exports + imports (equation (16)); electricity prices modeled as function of unit production costs and taxation (equation (17)); government net revenue = electricity taxation less government consumption plus government’s share of electricity firms’ profits (equation (18)).

### Production trends, reserves, and field-level data
- Total oil production (millions of barrels): 2003: 7.613; 2004: 7.814; 2005: 14.471; 2006: 12.2194; 2007: 17.430; 2008 (Proj.): 18.936
- Oil production growth rates (percent): 2.6; 85.2; 53.4; -21.5; 8.6
- Total gas production (millions of MMBTU): 2003: 48.6; 2004: 55.7; 2005: 51.3; 2006: 57.9; 2007: 53.8; 2008 (Proj.): 59.4
- Gas production growth rates (percent): 14.5; -7.9; 13.0; -7.2; 10.5
- Share of oil and gas production in nominal GDP projected to rise from 1.1 percent in 2003 to 4.8 percent in 2009.
- Oil and gas reserves are forecast to be largely depleted by 2029 (subject to high uncertainty).
- Current production fields: CI 11, CI 26, CI 27, CI 40.
- Field-level oil production (millions of barrels) examples:
  - CI 11: 2003: 1.175; 2004: 1.199; 2005: 1.127; 2006: 0.871; 2007: 0.752; 2008: 0.548
  - CI 26: 2003: 6.439; 2004: 6.616; 2005: 6.590; 2006: 10.433; 2007: 9.452; 2008: 10.950
  - CI 40: 2005: 6.553; 2006: 10.703; 2007: 7.060; 2008: 7.300
- Field-level gas production (millions of MMBTU) examples:
  - CI 11: 2003: 18.3; 2004: 23.5; 2005: 25.5; 2006: 20.9; 2007: 18.3; 2008: 14.6
  - CI 27: 2003: 25.6; 2004: 27.1; 2005: 23.2; 2006: 31.2; 2007: 29.6; 2008: 29.2

### Production-sharing agreements (PSAs) and government shares
- PSAs provide the government a share of total physical oil production; in source PSAs have no royalties or special company profit taxes (0ρ= in referenced equations).
- Government’s production share is handled by Petroci (fully state-owned).
- Example PSA feature (CI 40, 2005): cost oil = 80 percent of oil production; government take = 9 percent of total oil production; Petroci receives about 3 percent.
- Average all fields (percent) as presented:
  - Profit Oil row: 26.8 14.0 4.2 18.2 8.6
  - Profit Gas row: 81.9 49.1 10.2 59.3 22.6

### Swap mechanism, pricing, and implications
- Government commissions Petroci to sell part of its crude at market rates and may swap oil into natural gas for electricity producers and refinery.
- Government pays a service fee of CFAF 100 (about 0.2 US$) per barrel to Petroci to swap oil into gas.
- Swap pricing basis: local crude price (world market less quality discounts) and local gas price (long-term contracts indexed to international prices for some fields and fixed for others); discounts reflect quality and contract terms.
- Selected swap and price figures:
  - Government before swap (millions of barils): 2003: 1.368; 2004: 1.401; 2005: 2.031; 2006: 2.660; 2007: 2.138
  - Government after swap (millions of barils): 2005: 1.1; 2006: 1.6; 2007: 2.7
  - Government before swap (millions of MMBTU): 2003: 23.0; 2004: 26.9; 2005: 25.2; 2006: 27.3; 2007: 25.2
  - Government after swap (millions of MMBTU): 2003: 35.9; 2004: 43.8; 2005: 43.3; 2006: 45.5; 2007: 40.3
  - Crude oil price (US$/bl, WEO): 2003: 28.9; 2004: 37.8; 2005: 53.4; 2006: 64.3; 2007: 71.1
  - Natural gas price (US$/MMBTU, WEO): 2003: 3.6; 2004: 3.8; 2005: 6.0; 2006: 8.4; 2007: 8.3
  - Implied WEO swap rate (MMBTU/bl): 2003: 8.1; 2004: 9.9; 2005: 8.9; 2006: 7.7; 2007: 8.6
  - Actual swap rate, weighted average (MMBTU/bl): 2003: 9.4; 2004: 12.1; 2005: 16.0; 2006: 16.9; 2007: 14.5
- Key observation: actual average swap rate is much higher than implied by international prices because local gas prices are much below world market prices due to long-term contracts; implies a transfer/subsidy to the electricity sector.

### Supply and use of oil and gas (selected years)
- Oil (thousands of metric tons) — Domestic Production: 2003: 1042.9; 2004: 1070.5; 2005: 1982.4; 2006: 3040.2; 2007: 2387.7; 2008 (Proj.): 2594.0
- Oil Imports: 2003: 2599.3; 2004: 3668.4; 2005: 3941.5; 2006: 3631.3; 2007: 3776.6; 2008: 3885.4
- Oil Domestic Consumption: 2003: 2695.5; 2004: 3707.8; 2005: 4608.6; 2006: 3591.5; 2007: 3745.3; 2008: 3963.7
- Oil Exports: 2003: 946.7; 2004: 1031.1; 2005: 1315.3; 2006: 3080.1; 2007: 2419.0; 2008: 2515.7
- Gas (millions of MMBTU) — Domestic Production/Consumption: 2003: 48.6; 2004: 55.7; 2005: 51.3; 2006: 57.9; 2007: 53.8; 2008: 59.4
- Note: Côte d’Ivoire both imports and exports crude oil because SIR refinery uses lighter oil than produced domestically; most domestically produced crude is exported. Natural gas supply is entirely domestic and consumed domestically.

### Government and public sector revenue from oil and gas
- Total government revenue from oil and gas (bln CFAF): 2003: 46.3; 2004: 55.4; 2005: 117.0; 2006: 185.0; 2007: 191.5; 2008 (Proj.): 301.2
- Total public sector revenue from oil and gas (bln CFAF): 2003: 64.4; 2004: 75.0; 2005: 142.0; 2006: 225.5; 2007: 216.4; 2008 (Proj.): 359.8
- Revenue shares:
  - Total government revenue as % of total sector proceeds: 2003: 24.1; 2004: 24.1; 2005: 24.9; 2006: 21.6; 2007: 31.3; 2008: 29.7
  - Total government revenue as % of total government revenues excl. grants: 2003: 3.4; 2004: 3.9; 2005: 8.0; 2006: 11.1; 2007: 10.5; 2008: 15.4
- Direct revenue from oil and gas (bln CFAF): 2003: 43.5; 2004: 49.7; 2005: 100.3; 2006: 151.0; 2007: 163.3; 2008: 270.4
- Petroci profit (bln CFAF): 2003: 3.0; 2004: 5.8; 2005: 16.8; 2006: 34.1; 2007: 28.3; 2008: 31.0 (2003-06 from Annual Reports; 2007 onward projected to grow with oil production)
- Petroci revenue after swap (bln CFAF): 2003: 21.1; 2004: 25.4; 2005: 51.7; 2006: 74.7; 2007: 53.3; 2008: 89.6
- Cost of swap (bln CFAF): 0.1 each year 2003–2008
- Memorandum totals:
  - Total sector proceeds from oil and gas (bln CFAF): 2003: 192.1; 2004: 230.3; 2005: 470.1; 2006: 857.2; 2007: 612.7; 2008: 1015.5
  - Total government revenues excl. grants (bln CFAF): 2003: 1343.8; 2004: 1431.6; 2005: 1471.4; 2006: 1672.1; 2007: 1817.9; 2008: 1960.5
- Projection: revenue from oil and gas production as a percentage of total revenue excluding grants projected to rise from 3.4 percent in 2003 to 13.7 percent in 2008.

### Refinery (SIR), petroleum products, and pricing
- SIR ownership: Petroci 45 percent; government of Burkina Faso 5 percent; government of Côte d’Ivoire 1 percent; private sector 49 percent.
- SIR produces car, jet and heavy fuels; domestic consumption of petroleum products < one quarter of domestic production; Côte d’Ivoire is a significant exporter of refined products.
- Petroleum products value added in GDP (bln CFAF / percent of nominal GDP):
  - Value (bln CFAF): 2002: 151.3; 2003: 150.5; 2004: 241.1; 2005: 290.6; 2006: 320.3; 2007: 298.3
  - As percent of nominal GDP: 2002: 1.9; 2003: 1.9; 2004: 2.9; 2005: 3.4; 2006: 3.5; 2007: 3.2
- SIR protection rate (mark-up over import parity price): reduced from 13 percent to 8 percent in May 2006 and from 8 percent to 6 percent in May 2007; reduction allowed higher ex-refinery taxation while keeping retail prices constant.
- Automatic petroleum pricing mechanism: introduced ~1994, suspended, re-introduced in revised form in 2002, only partially applied thereafter; pass-through of higher world oil prices highly incomplete; taxation absorbed much of adjustment.
- Example projected 2007 price components (excerpts):
  - CIF Rotterdam (USD/MT) and Ex-Refinery price (CFAF/L) rows shown for product columns.
  - Retail price (CFAF/L or unit) examples: Super 615; Jet 470; Diesel 545; Fuel oil 400; DDO 585; AD 524
  - Total taxation by product (CFAF/L or unit) examples: Super 244.2; Jet 451.8; Diesel 98.4; Fuel oil 578.9; DDO 162.0; AD 103.69
  - Total fiscal revenue from petroleum products (CFAF billions): 103.8 (using consumption figures from Table 6)
- Automatic pricing mechanism only partially applied because for car and jet fuels the tax base is a historic value of the maximum ex-refinery price, which is much lower; this reduces taxes and the price buffer is negative for Super.

### Electricity sector: production, consumption, tariffs, and financials
- Electricity sector accounts for 2 ½ percent of GDP; electric energy value added as percent of nominal GDP: 2002: 2.3; 2003: 2.2; 2004: 2.3; 2005: 2.5; 2006: 2.5; 2007: 2.4
- Quantities (selected):
  - Input of gas (millions of MMBTU): 2002: 43.0; 2003: 39.2; 2004: 43.9; 2005: 49.6; 2006: 48.5; 2007: 49.2
  - Production of electricity from gas (GWh): 2002: 3,554.5; 2003: 3,241.3; 2004: 3,629.6; 2005: 4,104.2; 2006: 4,006.3; 2007: 3,686.0
  - Production from water (GWh): 2002: 1,721.7; 2003: 1,823.1; 2004: 1,739.9; 2005: 1,425.0; 2006: 1,502.3; 2007: 1,789.6
  - Total production (GWh): 2002: 5,276.2; 2003: 5,064.4; 2004: 5,369.5; 2005: 5,529.2; 2006: 5,508.6; 2007: 5,475.6
  - Domestic consumption (GWh): 2002: 2,934.8; 2003: 2,693.1; 2004: 3,106.3; 2005: 3,080.0; 2006: 3,273.0; 2007: 3,457.4
  - Exports (GWh): 2002: 1,568.6; 2003: 1,324.6; 2004: 1,419.5; 2005: 1,395.3; 2006: 1,063.0; 2007: 772.5
- Tariffs and VAT:
  - Average national price (CFAF/KWh): 53.0 (2002–2007 as shown)
  - VAT rate applicable to average national price (%): 2002: 20.0; 2003: 20.0; 2004: 20.0; 2005: 18.0; 2006: 18.0; 2007: 18.0
  - Average national price incl. VAT: 2002: 63.6; 2003: 63.6; 2004: 63.6; 2005: 62.5; 2006: 62.5; 2007: 62.5
- Financials (bln CFAF):
  - Value of total electricity production: 2002: 240.0; 2003: 216.3; 2004: 245.8; 2005: 240.1; 2006: 240.8; 2007: 242.5
  - Value of domestic electricity consumption: 2002: 186.7; 2003: 171.3; 2004: 197.6; 2005: 192.6; 2006: 204.7; 2007: 216.2
  - Value of electricity exports: 2002: 53.3; 2003: 45.0; 2004: 48.3; 2005: 47.4; 2006: 36.1; 2007: 26.3
  - Total government revenue from electricity sector (bln CFAF): 2002: 26.4; 2003: 24.3; 2004: 28.0; 2005: 25.0; 2006: 26.5; 2007: 28.0
  - Profits: 0.0 for 2002–2007 (table entries)
- Sector structure and governance:
  - Six hydropower and three thermal power plants; IPPs produce from gas; Compagnie ivoirienne d’éléctricité (CIE) produces from liquid combustibles and hydropower, buys from IPPs, and distributes/operates grid; regulatory authority SOGEPE supervises government swap and gas sales.
- Fiscal and arrears issues:
  - Substantial cross arrears: CIE provided electricity to the rebel-held north without payments; bill recovery in the south is weak; unlawful wiring and unpaid public sector bills (central government, public enterprises, hospitals, other public institutions) reduced revenues.
  - Electricity sector has not paid for gas it receives from government; government did not disburse VAT refunds to the electricity sector; foreign consumers are also in arrears to CIE.
  - 2007 convention: government and CIE agreed to forgive accumulated arrears of the other side, settle remaining amounts, and resume obligations; government will subsidize the energy sector by giving it part of its gas for free.
  - Despite measures, sector remains underfunded, infrastructure inadequately maintained, and investments urgently needed.

### International comparison: crude oil, gas production, and fiscal revenues
- Crude oil production (millions of barrels) selected countries (2003–2007 Est.):
  - Angola: 314.9; 356.0; 448.8; 513.8; 618.0
  - Cameroon: 35.6; 32.7; 30.1; 31.9; 31.2
  - Chad: 24.4; 63.4; 62.9; 56.7; 52.4
  - Côte d'Ivoire: 7.6; 7.8; 14.5; 22.2; 17.4
  - Nigeria: 895.3; 913.4; 915.7; 861.6; 807.9
- Total natural gas production (millions of barrels of oil equivalent) selected:
  - Côte d'Ivoire: 8.3; 9.5; 8.7; 9.9; 9.1
  - Nigeria: 122.2; 146.5; 185.4; 211.8; 257.2
- Value of total crude oil and natural gas production (millions of US$) selected:
  - Côte d'Ivoire: 331; 437; 893; 1,641; 1,280
- Share of oil and gas sector value added in GDP (%):
  - Côte d'Ivoire: 1.1; 1.4; 2.7; 3.9; 3.3 (selected years)
- Total government revenues from oil and gas (millions of US$) (table text preserves source entries):
  - Côte d'Ivoire: entries presented as "7594191289341" in source table (preserved as shown)
- Government revenues as percent of total value of production (selected):
  - Côte d'Ivoire: 22.6; 21.6; 21.3; 17.6; 26.6
- Key finding: Côte d’Ivoire is a relatively small crude oil producer; share of oil and gas value added in GDP remains the lowest among comparison countries; total government revenue from oil and gas is low compared to peers, indicating potential to reap greater revenue.

### Petroleum product prices, taxation, and fiscal revenue (regional comparison)
- Retail prices and taxation of Super Unleaded (US$) 2006:
  - Côte d’Ivoire: Pre tax price 0.66; Taxation 0.51; Retail price 1.18
  - Ghana: Pre tax price 0.43; Taxation 0.42; Retail price 0.85
  - Senegal: Pre tax price 0.53; Taxation 0.58; Retail price 1.11
  - Mali: Pre tax price 0.77; Taxation 0.40; Retail price 1.18
  - Burkina Faso: Pre tax price 0.53; Taxation 0.47; Retail price 1.18
- Diesel examples:
  - Côte d’Ivoire: Pre tax price 0.81; Taxation 0.24; Retail price 1.04
  - Ghana: Pre tax price 0.52; Taxation 0.31; Retail price 0.83
- Fiscal revenue from petroleum products taxation (percent of GDP): Côte d’Ivoire 1.1; Ghana 5.3; Senegal 3.2; Mali 3.0; Burkina Faso 1.4
- Key findings:
  - Retail price of Super and Diesel higher in Côte d’Ivoire than average of other countries shown; Kerosene price highest among countries considered.
  - Tax revenue from petroleum products taxation is lower in Côte d’Ivoire than in other countries, indicating need to improve revenue collection.
  - Since taxation per liter broadly in line with others and retail prices already high, raising fiscal revenue (other than by improved collection) would require increasing tax rates, potentially by reducing the price buffer, protection, or margins.

### Electricity tariffs, efficiency, and sectoral health
- Average electricity tariffs (FCFA) comparative excerpts:
  - Household tariff examples: Benin 60.5; Burkina Faso 127.3; Côte d'Ivoire 41.4; Mali 87.2; Senegal 51.9
  - Social tariff examples: Côte d'Ivoire 24.3 (lowest among shown)
  - Industrial tariff examples: Côte d'Ivoire 26.9 (lowest among shown)
- Key findings:
  - Côte d’Ivoire has, on average, the lowest electricity tariffs in the region.
  - Electricity sector faces financial difficulties and does not appear more cost effective than peers; need to increase tariffs to extract revenue for investment.

### Transparency: framework and recommendations
- Natural resource abundance can create rent-seeking and high corruption risk.
- Côte d’Ivoire joined the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) in May 2006 and became an EITI candidate in May 2008.
- Model applications to transparency:
  - Trace physical and financial flows and identify discrepancies.
  - Use forecasts vs. recorded numbers to indicate lack of transparency or model fit issues.
  - Public availability of the framework and explanations for discrepancies would demonstrate commitment to transparency.

### Efficiency diagnosis and remedial measures
- Observations:
  - Offshore oil and gas production involves foreign companies; technical efficiency close to industry standards but can improve.
  - Award exploration rights transparently to highest bidders.
  - Refinery (SIR) benefits from private capital and relative efficiency but still enjoys protection.
  - Electricity subsector exhibits largest efficiency problems: under-investment in maintenance and new capacity, high technical and non-technical losses, lack of cost recovery, shortage of natural gas, wasteful energy use due to low prices, and rapidly increasing domestic electricity consumption that may outstrip production.
- Recommended remedial measures for electricity:
  - Improve revenue collection nationwide.
  - Step up maintenance and rehabilitate conflict-damaged assets.
  - Invest in more efficient technologies and build new power plants.
  - Increase tariffs and improve cost recovery to reduce government subsidies and safeguard Côte d’Ivoire’s role as a regional electricity supplier.

### Fiscal sustainability and policy options
- Conceptual point: permanent income hypothesis adaptations matter for resource-rich countries; post-conflict reconstruction needs may justify prioritizing current revenue to finance investment over strict intergenerational smoothing.
- Direct revenue measures:
  - Raise tax rates, increase tax base, improve revenue collection.
  - For oil and gas: reform bidding and contracting for new PSAs (existing PSAs hard to change).
  - For petroleum products: set taxation at appropriate levels relative to neighbors and improve control of taxable volumes.
  - For electricity: increase tariffs and improve bill collection to reduce deficits and phase out subsidies.
- Indirect measures:
  - Improve efficiency across subsectors to raise output, expand tax base, and boost GDP growth.

### Simulations: impact of improved energy-sector efficiency on fiscal revenue and growth (selected results)
- Simulation definitions:
  - Simulation A: 10% increase in oil & gas production over baseline in 2008–10.
  - Simulation B: 10% increase in petroleum products production over baseline in 2008–10.
  - Simulation C: 10% increase in electricity production over baseline in 2008–10.
  - Simulation D: Combination of Simulations A–C.
- Fiscal revenue (bln CFAF) – 2008–2010 (current projection vs. simulations; absolute change; change in percent):
  - 2008:
    - Current projection: 1,960.5
    - Sim A: 1,971.5; absolute change 11.0; change in percent 0.6
    - Sim B: 1,972.5; absolute change 12.0; change in percent 0.6
    - Sim C: 1,966.6; absolute change 6.1; change in percent 0.3
    - Sim D: 1,989.6; absolute change 29.1; change in percent 1.5
  - 2009:
    - Current projection: 2,159.6
    - Sim A: 2,231.5; absolute change 71.9; change in percent 3.3
    - Sim B: 2,184.1; absolute change 24.5; change in percent 1.1
    - Sim C: 2,168.5; absolute change 8.9; change in percent 0.4
    - Sim D: 2,265.0; absolute change 105.4; change in percent 4.9
  - 2010:
    - Current projection: 2,388.8
    - Sim A: 2,500.3; absolute change 111.5; change in percent 4.7
    - Sim B: 2,429.6; absolute change 40.9; change in percent 1.7
    - Sim C: 2,404.5; absolute change 15.7; change in percent 0.7
    - Sim D: 2,557.1; absolute change 168.3; change in percent 7.0
- Real GDP growth (percent) – current projection vs. simulations (percentage point changes):
  - 2008:
    - Current projection: 2.9
    - Sim A: 3.1 (+0.2); Sim B: 3.1 (+0.2); Sim C: 3.2 (+0.2); Sim D: 3.6 (+0.7)
  - 2009:
    - Current projection: 5.1
    - Sim A: 5.5 (+0.4); Sim B: 5.4 (+0.2); Sim C: 5.4 (+0.3); Sim D: 6.0 (+0.9)
  - 2010:
    - Current projection: 5.6
    - Sim A: 5.9 (+0.3); Sim B: 5.9 (+0.3); Sim C: 5.9 (+0.3); Sim D: 6.4 (+0.8)
- Buoyancy (percentage change in overall fiscal revenue divided by percentage change in nominal GDP):
  - 2008: Sim A 1.4; Sim B 2.0; Sim C 1.4; Sim D 1.6
  - 2009: Sim A 3.2; Sim B 1.9; Sim C 0.9; Sim D 2.3
  - 2010: Sim A 3.2; Sim B 1.9; Sim C 0.9; Sim D 2.3
- Key simulation findings:
  - Fiscal revenue reacts strongest to increases in oil and gas production (Simulation A and combined D).
  - Simulation C (electricity) yields relatively low fiscal revenue increase due to taxation problems in the electricity sector.
  - Combined scenario (D) yields the largest GDP growth gains.

### Policy implications and recommendations
- Transparency:
  - Publish and use the modelling framework to trace and reconcile physical and financial flows; explain discrepancies publicly to build confidence.
  - Continue EITI progress and improve reporting accuracy on the energy sector.
- Revenue mobilization:
  - Oil and gas: reform bidding and contracting for new PSAs to boost government take.
  - Petroleum products: improve revenue collection and consider taxation adjustments benchmarked to neighboring countries; control taxable volumes.
  - Electricity: raise tariffs to sustainable levels and improve bill collection to reduce sector deficits and phase out subsidies.
- Efficiency improvements:
  - Award exploration rights transparently to highest bidders.
  - Increase private-sector efficiency where appropriate and reduce protection where it produces inefficiencies.
  - Address electricity subsector deficiencies via maintenance, rehabilitation, investment in generation and technologies, reduction of technical losses, and expansion of reliable natural gas supplies.
- Fiscal strategy:
  - Given reconstruction needs and potentially high social discount rates, prioritize using energy revenues to finance investment and rebuild capital while improving long-term revenue management and contract frameworks.

*Source: Ivoirien authorities; and IMF staff estimates (as presented in the supplied content).*

### 1.      While many low-income countries have diverse energy sources, often in

### _wp08156 - 1.      While many low-income countries have diverse energy sources, often in

### Overview: energy challenges and motivation
- Many low-income countries have diverse and often abundant energy sources but “their energy sectors are typically immensely underdeveloped.”
- Energy sector development is crucial to sustained economic development; Africa’s current energy problems have “significant growth- and welfare-reducing effects.”
- Despite abundant endowments, fuel imports constitute a large share of Africa’s total imports and consume a significant proportion of scarce foreign exchange.
- Electricity and petroleum product costs in Africa are significantly higher than in other regions, reducing competitiveness.
- Small national market sizes, huge investment requirements, and economies of scale point to the need for regional solutions.
- Widespread use of wood-fuels contributes to deforestation and desertification.

### Purpose and scope of the paper
- Presents a general, deliberately general framework to analyze macro-critical energy sectors in low-income countries and applies it to Côte d’Ivoire.
- Key objective: monitor and project both physical and financial flows, including fiscal revenues, perform consistency checks on historical or preliminary data, and project future flows coherently.
- Designed to inform policymakers on fiscal revenue calculation, medium-term trends, reform needs, transparency, good governance, and efficiency.
- Energy sector definition used in the paper: a) oil and natural gas production and distribution; b) refinery and production and distribution of petroleum products; and c) electricity production and distribution.
- Special emphasis on government involvement in the energy sector and the interlinkages across subsectors (e.g., crude oil → refinery; natural gas → refinery and electricity).

### Key descriptive findings for Côte d’Ivoire (historical and projected figures)
- Combined oil, gas, electricity and fuel production accounted for 9.9 percent of GDP in 2006, up from 6.7 percent in 2004.
- Crude oil production:
  - 7.6 million barrels in 2003
  - 22.2 million barrels in 2006
  - Projected to rise to around 26 million barrels in 2009 (note: 2007 production slowed due to technical exploration problems)
  - Almost all Ivoirien oil is exported.
- Natural gas production:
  - Fluctuated around a 2003-2006 average production of 53 million MMBTU
  - Used by domestic electricity producers and the local refinery
- Electricity:
  - A substantial part of domestic electricity production is exported.
- Refinery:
  - One of the largest in the region; produces car, jet and heavy fuels for domestic consumption and exports
  - Uses mostly imported, but also some local, crude oil
  - Initially enjoyed high protection; competitiveness improvements allowed reduction of protection over time
- Exports and government revenue:
  - In 2006, exports of crude oil and petroleum products (percent of total exports) exceeded cocoa exports for the first time.
  - Total government revenue from oil, gas and petroleum products:
    - Estimated 3.4 percent of total revenue in 2003
    - 11.1 percent in 2006
    - Decreased in 2007 due to production slowdown
    - Projected to grow to a maximum of 14.2 percent in 2009

### Key physical and financial flows in Côte d’Ivoire (2005 figures presented in the source)
- Crude oil production (2005, aggregated flows shown in Figure 2):
  - Domestic consumption: 33.6   mln barrels
  - Private Sector: 11.2 mln barrels — 281.8   bln CFAF
  - Petroci: 1.2   mln barrels — 30.1   bln CFAF
  - Export: 9.6   mln barrels — 281.4   bln CFAF
  - Government: 2.0   mln barrels — 53.1   bln CFAF
- Natural gas production (2005):
  - Domestic consumption: 51.3   ml MMBTU — 105.1   bln CFAF
  - Private Sector: 20.9 ml MMBTU — 46.3 bln CFAF
  - Petroci: 5.2   ml MMBTU — 11.6   bln CFAF
  - Export: 0.0   ml MMBTU — 0.0   bln CFAF
  - Government: 25.2 ml MMBTU — 47.2   bln CFAF
- Refinery and petroleum products (2005):
  - Domestic consumption: 902.0   1000 MT
  - Crude oil imports: 28.8 mln barrels
  - Refinery production: 3832.0   1000 MT — 231.9   bln CFAF
  - Refinery total values shown: 836.6 bln CFAF and 985.0   bln CFAF (figure displays multiple flow valuations)
  - Exports: 2930.0   1000 MT — 753.2   bln CFAF
- Electricity production (2005):
  - Total production: 4475.3   GWh
  - Domestic consumption: 3080.0   GWh — 279.9   bln CFAF (production valuation), 192.6   bln CFAF (consumption valuation)
  - Export: 1395.3   GWh — 47.4   bln CFAF
- Source for figures: Ivoirien authorities; and IMF staff estimates.

### Simple energy sector model: structure and accounting relationships
- Model starting point: trace crude oil and natural gas production separately because both generate income and are typically found together in multiple fields.
- Production is produced across multiple fields and shared among agents: private firms, state-owned company (soc), and the government (through production-sharing agreements and royalties). Production-sharing terms may differ across fields and over time.
- Aggregate production by agent is the sum over individual fields (equations (1)–(4) in the source).
- Government sales, swaps, or in-kind use of its share of oil/gas are explicitly modelled; swaps (oil↔gas) require monitoring of swap rates because deviations from market-implied swap rates imply implicit subsidies or taxes (formally tracked in equation (5) and illustrated in (6)–(7)).
- Domestic supply–demand linkages:
  - Assumption: refinery is the only domestic consumer of crude oil; refinery and electricity sectors are the only domestic consumers of natural gas (equations (8)–(9)).
- Government revenues from oil and gas: derived by applying international prices (p as published in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook), exchange rates (e), field-specific discounts/markups (d), royalties (ρ), and including state-owned company profits with government share α (equations (10a)–(10b)).
- Refinery sector:
  - Modeled as a single refinery producing multiple petroleum products (car fuels, kerosene, butane, heavy fuels) from crude oil and natural gas inputs, plus other inputs and technology factors (equations (11a)–(11b)).
  - Economy-wide supply and demand for each petroleum product l: production = domestic consumption + storage + exports + imports as applicable (equation (12)).
  - Domestic petroleum product prices are functions of international prices, exchange rate, refinery protection, transport costs, two types of petroleum product taxes, and other costs (equation (13)).
  - Central government revenue from petroleum products includes product taxation and government’s share of refinery profits (equations (14a)–(14b)).
- Electricity sector:
  - Electricity production uses natural gas, fuel oils or water depending on plant technology; multiple electricity companies can exist (equation (15)).
  - Net electricity production accounts for technical and non-technical losses.
  - Electricity supply and demand: production = domestic consumption + exports + imports (equation (16)).
  - Electricity prices can be administered and modeled as a function of unit production costs and government taxation (equation (17)).
  - Government net revenue from electricity equals electricity taxation less government consumption plus government’s share of electricity firms’ profits (equation (18)).

### Intended uses and policy relevance of the framework
- The framework can:
  - Monitor and project physical and financial energy-sector flows coherently.
  - Perform consistency checks on historical or preliminary data.
  - Help calculate fiscal revenue attributable to the energy sector.
  - Identify medium-term trends and potential reform needs.
  - Inform public debate on transparency, good governance, and efficiency to realize the sector’s growth potential.
- The framework is deliberately general to facilitate application to other low-income countries beyond Côte d’Ivoire.

*Source: Ivoirien authorities; and IMF staff estimates (as presented in the supplied content).*

### 22.      Most of Côte d’Ivoire’s crude oil and natural gas production takes place offshore.

### 22.      Most of Côte d’Ivoire’s crude oil and natural gas production takes place offshore.

### Overview: production trends and reserves
- Total oil production (millions of barrels)  
  - 2003: 7.613  
  - 2004: 7.814  
  - 2005: 14.471  
  - 2006: 12.2194  
  - 2007: 17.430  
  - 2008 (Proj.): 18.936
- Oil production growth rates (percent): 2.6, 85.2, 53.4, -21.5, 8.6 (as reported in table row "growth in percent")
- Total gas production (millions of MMBTU)  
  - 2003: 48.6  
  - 2004: 55.7  
  - 2005: 51.3  
  - 2006: 57.9  
  - 2007: 53.8  
  - 2008 (Proj.): 59.4
- Gas production growth rates (percent): 14.5, -7.9, 13.0, -7.2, 10.5
- Share of oil and gas production in nominal GDP projected to rise from 1.1 percent in 2003 to 4.8 percent in 2009.
- Oil and gas reserves are forecast to be largely depleted by 2029, but this forecast is subject to high uncertainty due to speculation about new discoveries and uncertain reserve/production profile information.
- Current production occurs in four fields: CI 11, CI 26, CI 27, CI 40.

### Field-level production (selected figures from Table 1)
- Oil production by field (millions of barrels):  
  - CI 11: 2003: 1.175; 2004: 1.199; 2005: 1.127; 2006: 0.871; 2007: 0.752; 2008: 0.548  
  - CI 26: 2003: 6.439; 2004: 6.616; 2005: 6.590; 2006: 10.433; 2007: 9.452; 2008: 10.950  
  - CI 27: 2003: 0.000; 2004: 0.000; 2005: 0.202; 2006: 0.188; 2007: 0.167; 2008: 0.139  
  - CI 40: 2003: 0.000; 2004: 0.000; 2005: 6.553; 2006: 10.703; 2007: 7.060; 2008: 7.300
- Gas production by field (millions of MMBTU):  
  - CI 11: 2003: 18.3; 2004: 23.5; 2005: 25.5; 2006: 20.9; 2007: 18.3; 2008: 14.6  
  - CI 26: 2003: 4.8; 2004: 5.1; 2005: 2.1; 2006: 3.3; 2007: 3.8; 2008: 12.8  
  - CI 27: 2003: 25.6; 2004: 27.1; 2005: 23.2; 2006: 31.2; 2007: 29.6; 2008: 29.2  
  - CI 40: 2003: 0.0; 2004: 0.0; 2005: 0.5; 2006: 2.6; 2007: 2.0; 2008: 2.8

### Production-sharing agreements (PSAs) and revenue shares
- PSAs: simplified production-sharing agreements that give the government a share of total physical oil production. No royalties, special company profit taxes, or other fees or levies (i.e., 0ρ= in equations referenced).
- Government’s production share is handled by Petroci (fully state-owned oil company). Total production is divided into cost oil and profit oil; shares vary by field and over time.
- Table 2 (PSA features in 2005) — selected percent shares (by field) for Cost Oil and Profit Oil:
  - CI 11: Cost Oil 0.0 (Government 0.0 / Petroci 0.0 / Total State 0.0 / Private sector 0.0); Profit Oil Government 100.0 / Petroci 60.0 / Total State 8.0 / Private sector 68.0 / (table shows split presentation; table headings preserved)
  - CI 26: Cost Oil Government 80.0 / Petroci 0.0 / Total State 0.0 / Private sector 8.9 (table lists multiple columns—structure preserved as in source)
  - CI 27: Cost Oil Government 40.0 / ... ; Profit Oil 60.0 / ...
  - CI 40: Cost Oil Government 80.0 / ... ; Profit Oil 20.0 / ...
- Average all fields (percent): Profit Oil 26.8 14.0 4.2 18.2 8.6 (as presented in table row "Average all fields Profit Oil"); Profit Gas 81.9 49.1 10.2 59.3 22.6 (as presented in table row "Average all fields Profit Gas").
- Example (CI 40, 2005): cost oil is 80 percent of oil production; government take is 9 percent of total oil production; Petroci receives about 3 percent. Corresponding model elements given as:
  - (19) , 40, 200540,2005 0.03 oil socoil CICI YY=  
  - (20) , 40, 200540,2005 0.09 oil stateoil CICI YY=

### Swap mechanism, pricing, and implications
- Government commissions Petroci to sell a portion of its crude oil at market rates and may swap part of oil into natural gas for sale to electricity producers and the local refinery.
- Government pays a service fee of CFAF 100 (about 0.2 US$) per barrel to Petroci to swap oil into gas.
- Swap rate basis: local price for crude oil (follows world market developments less quality discounts) and local price for gas (determined largely by long-term contracts indexed to international prices for some fields and fixed for others). Discounts reflect quality differences and contract specifics.
- Table 3 (production shares before/after swap and swap rates) — selected figures:
  - Total oil production (millions of barils): 2003: 7.613; 2004: 7.814; 2005: 14.471; 2006: 12.2194; 2007: 17.430
  - Government before swap (millions of barils): 2003: 1.368; 2004: 1.401; 2005: 2.031; 2006: 2.660; 2007: 2.138  
  - Government after swap (millions of barils): 2003: 0.0; 2004: 0.0; 2005: 1.1; 2006: 1.6; 2007: 2.7  
  - Total gas production (millions of MMBTU): 2003: 48.6; 2004: 55.7; 2005: 51.3; 2006: 57.9; 2007: 53.8  
  - Government before swap (millions of MMBTU): 2003: 23.0; 2004: 26.9; 2005: 25.2; 2006: 27.3; 2007: 25.2  
  - Government after swap (millions of MMBTU): 2003: 35.9; 2004: 43.8; 2005: 43.3; 2006: 45.5; 2007: 40.3
  - Crude oil price (US$/bl, WEO): 2003: 28.9; 2004: 37.8; 2005: 53.4; 2006: 64.3; 2007: 71.1
  - Natural gas price (US$/MMBTU, WEO): 2003: 3.6; 2004: 3.8; 2005: 6.0; 2006: 8.4; 2007: 8.3
  - Implied WEO swap rate (MMBTU/bl): 2003: 8.1; 2004: 9.9; 2005: 8.9; 2006: 7.7; 2007: 8.6
  - Actual swap rate, weighted average (MMBTU/bl): 2003: 9.4; 2004: 12.1; 2005: 16.0; 2006: 16.9; 2007: 14.5
- Key observation: actual average swap rate is much higher than the swap rate implied by international prices because local gas prices are much below world market prices due to long-term contracts signed in early exploration years. This implies a transfer/subsidy (low gas prices to electricity sector), and stationarity of local gas prices may not signal efficient resource allocation.

### Supply and use of oil and gas (Table 4)
- Oil (thousands of metric tons) — supply and use (selected years):
  - Domestic Production: 2003: 1042.9; 2004: 1070.5; 2005: 1982.4; 2006: 3040.2; 2007: 2387.7; 2008 (Proj.): 2594.0
  - Imports: 2003: 2599.3; 2004: 3668.4; 2005: 3941.5; 2006: 3631.3; 2007: 3776.6; 2008: 3885.4
  - Domestic Consumption: 2003: 2695.5; 2004: 3707.8; 2005: 4608.6; 2006: 3591.5; 2007: 3745.3; 2008: 3963.7
  - Exports: 2003: 946.7; 2004: 1031.1; 2005: 1315.3; 2006: 3080.1; 2007: 2419.0; 2008: 2515.7
- Gas (millions of MMBTU) — supply and use:  
  - Domestic Production: same as total gas production figures (48.6; 55.7; 51.3; 57.9; 53.8; 59.4).  
  - Imports: 0.0 for all years.  
  - Domestic Consumption: equal to Domestic Production above.  
  - Exports: 0.0 for all years.
- Note: Côte d’Ivoire is both an importer and exporter of crude oil because the local refinery SIR uses a lighter oil than produced locally; most domestically produced crude oil is exported and not refined domestically. Natural gas supply is entirely domestic and consumed domestically.

### Government and public sector revenue from oil and gas (Table 5)
- Total government revenue from oil and gas (in billions of CFA francs):  
  - 2003: 46.3; 2004: 55.4; 2005: 117.0; 2006: 185.0; 2007: 191.5; 2008 (Proj.): 301.2
- Total public sector revenue from oil and gas (in billions of CFA francs):  
  - 2003: 64.4; 2004: 75.0; 2005: 142.0; 2006: 225.5; 2007: 216.4; 2008 (Proj.): 359.8
- Revenue shares:  
  - Total government revenue in % of total sector proceeds from oil and gas: 2003: 24.1; 2004: 24.1; 2005: 24.9; 2006: 21.6; 2007: 31.3; 2008: 29.7  
  - Total government revenue in % of total government revenues excl. grants: 2003: 3.4; 2004: 3.9; 2005: 8.0; 2006: 11.1; 2007: 10.5; 2008: 15.4
- Direct revenue from oil and gas (billions of CFAF): 43.5; 49.7; 100.3; 151.0; 163.3; 270.4 (2003–2008)
- Breakdown before swap (selected):  
  - Oil before swap (billions CFAF): 13.3; 16.9; 53.1; 86.0; 105.6; 200.0  
  - Gas before swap (billions CFAF): 30.2; 32.9; 47.2; 64.9; 57.6; 70.4
- Petroci profit (billions CFAF): 3.0; 5.8; 16.8; 34.1; 28.3; 31.0 (with note: for 2003-06 from Annual Reports, from 2007 projected to grow in line with oil production)
- Petroci revenue after swap (billions CFAF): 21.1; 25.4; 51.7; 74.7; 53.3; 89.6
- Cost of swap (billions CFAF): 0.1 each year 2003–2008
- Memorandum totals:  
  - Total sector proceeds from oil and gas (billions CFAF): 192.1; 230.3; 470.1; 857.2; 612.7; 1015.5  
  - Total government revenues excl. grants (billions CFAF): 1343.8; 1431.6; 1471.4; 1672.1; 1817.9; 1960.5
- Projection: revenue from oil and gas production as a percentage of total revenue excluding grants projected to rise from 3.4 percent in 2003 to 13.7 percent in 2008 (text statement).

### Refinery (SIR), production of refined products, and petroleum product pricing
- SIR ownership: Petroci 45 percent; government of Burkina Faso 5 percent; government of Côte d’Ivoire 1 percent; private sector 49 percent.
- SIR produces car, jet and heavy fuels. Domestic consumption of petroleum products amounts to less than a quarter of domestic production; Côte d’Ivoire is a significant exporter of refined petroleum products.
- Petroleum products value added in GDP (billions of CFAF / percent of nominal GDP):  
  - Value (billions of CFAF): 2002: 151.3; 2003: 150.5; 2004: 241.1; 2005: 290.6; 2006: 320.3; 2007: 298.3 (from Table 6 memoranda)  
  - As percent of nominal GDP: 2002: 1.9; 2003: 1.9; 2004: 2.9; 2005: 3.4; 2006: 3.5; 2007: 3.2
- SIR protection rate (mark-up over import parity price) reduced from 13 percent to 8 percent in May 2006 and from 8 percent to 6 percent in May 2007. Reduced protection allowed government to increase taxation of ex-refinery fuel while keeping retail prices constant.
- Automatic petroleum pricing mechanism: introduced around 1994, suspended, re-introduced in revised form in 2002, only partially applied thereafter. Pass-through of higher world oil prices highly incomplete; taxation has absorbed much of the adjustment.
- Pricing mechanism (Table 7, projected for 2007): example price components for Super / Jet / Diesel / Fuel oil / DDO:
  - CIF Rotterdam (USD/MT): 627.06 / 611.85 / 544.41 / 268.46 / 506.30 / 506.30 (table lists products across columns)  
  - Ex-Refinery price (CFAF/L): 265.18 (Super) ; 283.21 (Jet) ; 265.74 (Diesel) ; 163.49 (Fuel oil) ; 291.28 (DDO) ; 291.28 (AD)  
  - Maximum ex-refinery price (CFAF/L): 268.13 (Super) ; 334.47 (Jet) ; 355.36 (Diesel) ; 274.14 (Fuel oil) ; 370.91 (DDO) ; 370.91 (AD)  
  - Retail price (CFAF/L or unit): 615 / 470 / 545 / 400 / 585 / 524 (as reported under "Retail price" row)  
  - Total taxation by product (CFAF/L or unit): 244.2 / 451.8 / 98.4 / 578.9 / 162.0 / 103.69 (table "Total taxation by product")  
  - Total fiscal revenue from petroleum products (CFAF billions): 103.8 (using consumption figures from Table 6 yields total fiscal revenue of CFAF 103.8 billion)
- Automatic pricing mechanism only partially applied because for car and jet fuels the tax base is a historic value of the maximum ex-refinery price, which is much lower; consequently lower taxes are added and the price buffer is negative for Super, reducing the maximum ex-refinery price itself.

### Electricity sector: production, consumption, tariffs, and financials (Table 8)
- Electricity sector accounts for 2 ½ percent of GDP (text); electric energy value added as percent of nominal GDP: 2002: 2.3; 2003: 2.2; 2004: 2.3; 2005: 2.5; 2006: 2.5; 2007: 2.4
- Quantities (selected rows):
  - Input of gas (millions of MMBTU): 2002: 43.0; 2003: 39.2; 2004: 43.9; 2005: 49.6; 2006: 48.5; 2007: 49.2
  - Production of electricity from gas (GWh): 2002: 3,554.5; 2003: 3,241.3; 2004: 3,629.6; 2005: 4,104.2; 2006: 4,006.3; 2007: 3,686.0
  - Production of electricity from water (GWh): 2002: 1,721.7; 2003: 1,823.1; 2004: 1,739.9; 2005: 1,425.0; 2006: 1,502.3; 2007: 1,789.6
  - Total electricity production (GWh): 2002: 5,276.2; 2003: 5,064.4; 2004: 5,369.5; 2005: 5,529.2; 2006: 5,508.6; 2007: 5,475.6
  - Domestic consumption (GWh): 2002: 2,934.8; 2003: 2,693.1; 2004: 3,106.3; 2005: 3,080.0; 2006: 3,273.0; 2007: 3,457.4
  - Exports (GWh): 2002: 1,568.6; 2003: 1,324.6; 2004: 1,419.5; 2005: 1,395.3; 2006: 1,063.0; 2007: 772.5
- Tariffs and VAT:
  - Average national price (CFAF/KWh): 53.0 for 2002–2007 (table shows 53.0 repeated)  
  - VAT rate applicable to average national price (%): 2002: 20.0; 2003: 20.0; 2004: 20.0; 2005: 18.0; 2006: 18.0; 2007: 18.0  
  - Average national price incl. VAT: 2002: 63.6; 2003: 63.6; 2004: 63.6; 2005: 62.5; 2006: 62.5; 2007: 62.5
- Financials (bln CFAF):
  - Value of total electricity production: 2002: 240.0; 2003: 216.3; 2004: 245.8; 2005: 240.1; 2006: 240.8; 2007: 242.5
  - Value of domestic electricity consumption: 2002: 186.7; 2003: 171.3; 2004: 197.6; 2005: 192.6; 2006: 204.7; 2007: 216.2
  - Value of electricity exports: 2002: 53.3; 2003: 45.0; 2004: 48.3; 2005: 47.4; 2006: 36.1; 2007: 26.3
  - Total government revenue from electricity sector (bln CFAF): 2002: 26.4; 2003: 24.3; 2004: 28.0; 2005: 25.0; 2006: 26.5; 2007: 28.0 (VAT revenue equals total government revenue row)
  - Profits: 0.0 for 2002–2007 (table entries)
- Sector structure and governance:
  - Sector comprises six hydropower and three thermal power plants. Independent power producers (IPPs) produce electricity from gas. Compagnie ivoirienne d’éléctricité (CIE) produces from liquid combustibles and hydropower, buys electricity from IPPs, and operates distribution and grid. Regulatory authority Societé de gestion du patrimoine du secteur de l’éléctricité (SOGEPE) supervises government swap and gas sales to the electricity sector.
- Fiscal and arrears issues:
  - Substantial cross arrears have emerged: CIE provided electricity to the rebel-held north without payments; bill recovery in the south is weak; unlawful wiring and unpaid public sector bills (central government, public enterprises, hospitals, other public institutions) have reduced revenues. The electricity sector has not paid for gas it receives from government; government did not disburse VAT refunds to the electricity sector; foreign consumers are also in arrears to CIE.
  - 2007 convention: government and CIE agreed to forgive accumulated arrears of the other side, to settle remaining amounts, and to resume honoring mutual obligations. Government will subsidize the energy sector by giving it part of its gas for free.
  - Despite measures, the sector remains underfunded, infrastructure inadequately maintained, and investments urgently needed to cope with rising demand.

*Source: Ivoirien authorities and IMF staff estimates (material summarized from the IMF content unit).*

### 40.      As Table 9 shows, Côte d’Ivoire is a relatively small producer of crude oil when

### _wp08156 - 40.      As Table 9 shows, Côte d’Ivoire is a relatively small producer of crude oil when

### International comparison: crude oil and natural gas production and fiscal revenue
- Crude oil production (millions of barrels), selected countries and years (2003–2007 Est.):
  - Angola: 314.9, 356.0, 448.8, 513.8, 618.0
  - Cameroon: 35.6, 32.7, 30.1, 31.9, 31.2
  - Chad: 24.4, 63.4, 62.9, 56.7, 52.4
  - Congo, Republic of 1/: 81.6, 82.1, 92.6, 98.8, 97.2
  - Côte d'Ivoire: 7.6, 7.8, 14.5, 22.2, 17.4
  - Equatorial Guinea: 95.1, 128.9, 133.1, 119.4, 122.2
  - Gabon: 98.1, 98.4, 97.1, 87.1, 88.5
  - Nigeria 2/: 895.3, 913.4, 915.7, 861.6, 807.9
- Total natural gas production (millions of barrels of oil equivalent), selected:
  - Congo, Republic of 1/3/: 3.3, 2.8, 2.8, 3.1, 2.9
  - Côte d'Ivoire: 8.3, 9.5, 8.7, 9.9, 9.1
  - Equatorial Guinea: 8.3, 10.5, 13.8, 14.1, 26.8
  - Nigeria 4/: 122.2, 146.5, 185.4, 211.8, 257.2
- Value of total crude oil and natural gas production (millions of US$) 5/:
  - Angola: 8,884; 12,857; 22,422; 31,525; 41,431
  - Cameroon: 949; 1,155; 1,492; 1,965; 2,173
  - Chad: 670; 1,791; 2,681; 2,964; 3,132
  - Congo, Republic of 1/: 2,336; 2,844; 4,499; 5,978; 4,523
  - Côte d'Ivoire: 331; 437; 893; 1,641; 1,280
  - Equatorial Guinea: 2,780; 4,697; 7,244; 8,048; 10,005
  - Gabon: 2,706; 3,518; 4,904; 5,248; 6,161
  - Nigeria 4/: 6,826; 36,272; 52,420; 57,467; 62,096
- Share of oil and gas sector value added in GDP (%):
  - Angola: 62.0, 59.3, 55.3
  - Cameroon: 6.1, 6.5, 8.4, 10.2, 9.6
  - Chad: 8.7, 44.3, 40.4, 34.8, 31.1
  - Congo, Republic of 1/: 50.0, 52.5, 60.4, 64.9, 54.1
  - Côte d'Ivoire: 1.1, 1.4, 2.7, 3.9, 3.3
  - Equatorial Guinea: 80.0, 81.8, 79.1, 75.2, 68.4
  - Gabon: 42.2, 44.9, 51.8, 51.5, 49.9
  - Nigeria 4/: 31.4, 36.4, 38.4, 37.3, 34.1
- Total government revenues from oil and gas (in millions of US$) 5/:
  - Angola: 3,892; 5,624; 9,891; 16,807; 22,424
  - Cameroon: 561; 616; 833; 1,229; 1,440
  - Chad: 0; 125; 248; 771; 1,182
  - Congo, Republic of 1/: 727; 1,005; 1,937; 2,930; 2,115
  - Côte d'Ivoire: 75; 94; 91; 128; 934; 1 (note: table entries present as "7594191289341" — preserved as shown)
  - Equatorial Guinea: 660; 1,339; 2,521; 3,330; 3,970
  - Gabon: 1,007; 1,244; 1,723; 1,939; 2,003
  - Nigeria: 16,093; 24,988; 36,249; 42,746; 36,605
- Government revenues from oil and gas in percent of total value of crude oil and natural gas production:
  - Angola: 43.8, 43.7, 44.1, 53.3, 54.1
  - Cameroon: 59.2, 53.3, 55.8, 62.6, 66.3
  - Chad: 0.0, 7.0, 9.2, 26.1, 37.7
  - Congo, Republic of 1/: 31.1, 35.3, 43.1, 49.0, 46.8
  - Côte d'Ivoire: 22.6, 21.6, 21.3, 17.6, 26.6
  - Equatorial Guinea: 23.7, 28.5, 34.8, 41.4, 39.7
  - Gabon: 37.2, 35.4, 35.1, 36.9, 32.5
  - Nigeria: 60.0, 68.9, 69.1, 74.4, 58.9
- Key finding: Côte d’Ivoire is a relatively small crude oil producer, and even after including natural gas, the value of its oil and gas production approaches Cameroon’s level only until 2007; the share of oil and gas value added in GDP for Côte d’Ivoire remains the lowest among countries in Table 9, and total government revenue from oil and gas is low compared to peers, indicating potential to reap greater revenue.

### Petroleum product prices, taxation, and fiscal revenue (Table 10)
- Retail prices and taxation of petroleum products in 2006 (US$ unless indicated), selected countries (Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso):
  - Super Unleaded:
    - Côte d’Ivoire: Pre tax price 0.66; Taxation 0.51; Retail price 1.18
    - Ghana: Pre tax price 0.43; Taxation 0.42; Retail price 0.85
    - Senegal: Pre tax price 0.53; Taxation 0.58; Retail price 1.11
    - Mali: Pre tax price 0.77; Taxation 0.40; Retail price 1.18
    - Burkina Faso: (cells show) Pre tax price 0.53; Taxation 0.47; Retail price 1.18
  - Diesel:
    - Côte d’Ivoire: Pre tax price 0.81; Taxation 0.24; Retail price 1.04
    - Ghana: Pre tax price 0.52; Taxation 0.31; Retail price 0.83
    - Senegal: Pre tax price 0.64; Taxation 0.36; Retail price 1.00
    - Mali: Pre tax price 0.81; Taxation 0.19; Retail price 1.00
  - Kerosene:
    - Côte d’Ivoire: Pre tax price 0.75; Taxation 0.15; Retail price 0.90
    - Ghana: Pre tax price 0.54; Taxation 0.19; Retail price 0.73
    - Mali: Pre tax price 0.70; Taxation 0.14; Retail price 0.84
    - Burkina Faso: Pre tax price 0.83; Taxation 0.04
  - Fiscal revenue from petroleum products taxation (percent of GDP): Côte d’Ivoire 1.1; Ghana 5.3; Senegal 3.2; Mali 3.0; Burkina Faso 1.4
  - Memorandum: Domestic currency units per US$: Côte d’Ivoire 522.40; Ghana 2.40; Senegal 5174? (table shows mixed entries preserved as "522.409174522.40522.40522.40")
- Key findings:
  - Retail price of Super and Diesel is higher in Côte d’Ivoire than the average of the other countries shown; Kerosene price is the highest among the countries considered.
  - Tax revenue from petroleum products taxation is lower in Côte d’Ivoire than in the other countries, suggesting the need to improve revenue collection.
  - Since taxation per liter is broadly in line with other countries and retail prices are already high, increasing fiscal revenue other than by improved collection would require increasing tax rates, potentially by reducing the price buffer, protection, subsidy, distributor’s and retailer’s margins.

### Electricity tariffs and subsector financial health (Table 11; efficiency)
- Comparison of average electricity tariffs (in FCFA) across selected West African countries (2005–2007 data mixed):
  - Household tariff 1/: Benin 60.5; Burkina Faso 127.3; Côte d'Ivoire 41.4; Mali 87.2; Senegal 51.9 (table preserves entries as shown)
  - Social tariff 1/: Benin 50.6; Burkina Faso 108.4; Côte d'Ivoire 24.3; Mali 72.1; Senegal 51.3
  - Industrial tariff 1/: Benin 54.4; Burkina Faso 103.0; Côte d'Ivoire 26.9; Mali 88.1; Senegal 53.2
  - Low tension 2/: Benin 93.3; Burkina Faso 86.0; Côte d'Ivoire 61.2; Mali 59.4; Niger 96.4; Senegal 83.8; Togo 65.8
  - Medium tension 2/: Benin 63.3; Burkina Faso 121.0; Côte d'Ivoire 51.9; Mali 115.0; Niger 88.0; Senegal 79.9; Togo 63.3
- Key findings:
  - Côte d’Ivoire has, on average, the lowest electricity tariffs in the region.
  - The Ivoirien electricity sector does not appear more cost effective than peers and faces financial difficulties, implying the need to increase tariffs to extract more revenue to invest in the subsector.

### Transparency: framework and recommendations
- Observations:
  - Natural resource abundance can create rent-seeking behavior and high corruption risk.
  - Côte d’Ivoire joined the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) in May 2006 and became an EITI candidate in May 2008.
- Model applications to transparency:
  - Enables tracing physical and financial flows and identifying discrepancies.
  - Framework can be used to forecast flows; differences between forecasts and recorded numbers may indicate lack of transparency or model fit issues.
  - Data can inform government decision making; public availability of the framework and explanations for discrepancies would demonstrate commitment to transparency and address concerns about diversion of resources.

### Efficiency: sectoral diagnosis and remedial measures
- Efficiency observations:
  - Most oil and gas production is offshore with foreign company involvement; technical efficiency is close to industry standards but could improve; deep-water exploration involves high costs.
  - Awarding exploration rights to the highest bidders in a transparent way is recommended.
  - The refinery (SIR) benefits from a large share of private capital assuring relatively high efficiency, though it still enjoys protection.
  - Electricity subsector exhibits the largest efficiency problems: under-investment in maintenance and new capacity, high technical and non-technical losses, lack of cost recovery due to non-payment in the north and low payment morale in the south, shortage of natural gas, wasteful energy use due to low prices, and rapidly increasing domestic electricity consumption that may outstrip domestic production.
- Recommended remedial measures for electricity:
  - Improve revenue collection nationwide.
  - Step up maintenance of existing infrastructure and rehabilitate conflict-damaged assets.
  - Invest in more efficient technologies and build new power plants.
  - Increase tariffs and improve cost recovery to reduce government subsidies and safeguard Côte d’Ivoire’s role as a regional electricity supplier amid West African Power Pool developments.

### Fiscal sustainability and policy options
- Conceptual points:
  - Permanent income hypothesis adaptations are key to fiscal sustainability in resource-rich countries; social discount rates may be higher than returns on saved oil wealth in post-conflict, reconstruction-needy countries.
  - For Côte d’Ivoire, emphasis may be on maximizing current revenue to meet reconstruction and fiscal needs rather than strict intergenerational smoothing.
- Direct measures to increase revenue:
  - Raise tax rates, increase tax base, improve revenue collection.
  - For oil and gas extraction: government revenue currently comes through PSAs; existing PSAs are hard to change, so reforming bidding and contracting procedures for new PSAs is essential.
  - For petroleum products: set taxation at appropriate levels relative to neighboring countries and improve control of taxable volumes.
  - For electricity: further tariff increases and better revenue collection to reduce sector deficits and phase out government subsidies.
- Indirect measures:
  - Improve efficiency across subsectors to raise sectoral output, expand the tax base, and boost GDP growth.

### Simulations: impact of improved energy sector efficiency on fiscal revenue and growth (Table 13)
- Simulation definitions:
  - Simulation A: 10% increase in oil & gas production over baseline in 2008–10.
  - Simulation B: 10% increase in petroleum products production over baseline in 2008–10.
  - Simulation C: 10% increase in electricity production over baseline in 2008–10.
  - Simulation D: Combination of Simulations A–C.
- Fiscal revenue (in bln CFAF), current projection vs. simulation and changes:
  - 2008:
    - Current projection (bln CFAF) 1,960.5 across scenarios.
    - Simulation A: 1,971.5; absolute change 11.0; change in percent 0.6
    - Simulation B: 1,972.5; absolute change 12.0; change in percent 0.6
    - Simulation C: 1,966.6; absolute change 6.1; change in percent 0.3
    - Simulation D: 1,989.6; absolute change 29.1; change in percent 1.5
  - 2009:
    - Current projection (bln CFAF) 2,159.6
    - Simulation A: 2,231.5; absolute change 71.9; change in percent 3.3
    - Simulation B: 2,184.1; absolute change 24.5; change in percent 1.1
    - Simulation C: 2,168.5; absolute change 8.9; change in percent 0.4
    - Simulation D: 2,265.0; absolute change 105.4; change in percent 4.9
  - 2010:
    - Current projection (bln CFAF) 2,388.8
    - Simulation A: 2,500.3; absolute change 111.5; change in percent 4.7
    - Simulation B: 2,429.6; absolute change 40.9; change in percent 1.7
    - Simulation C: 2,404.5; absolute change 15.7; change in percent 0.7
    - Simulation D: 2,557.1; absolute change 168.3; change in percent 7.0
- Real GDP growth (in %), current projection vs. simulation and changes (percentage points):
  - 2008:
    - Current projection 2.9; Sim A 3.1 (+0.2); Sim B 3.1 (+0.2); Sim C 3.2 (+0.2); Sim D 3.6 (+0.7)
  - 2009:
    - Current projection 5.1; Sim A 5.5 (+0.4); Sim B 5.4 (+0.2); Sim C 5.4 (+0.3); Sim D 6.0 (+0.9)
  - 2010:
    - Current projection 5.6; Sim A 5.9 (+0.3); Sim B 5.9 (+0.3); Sim C 5.9 (+0.3); Sim D 6.4 (+0.8)
- Buoyancy (percentage change in overall fiscal revenue divided by percentage change in nominal GDP) 6/:
  - 2008: Sim A 1.4; Sim B 2.0; Sim C 1.4; Sim D 1.6
  - 2009: Sim A 3.2; Sim B 1.9; Sim C 0.9; Sim D 2.3
  - 2010: Sim A 3.2; Sim B 1.9; Sim C 0.9; Sim D 2.3
- Key simulation findings:
  - Fiscal revenue reacts strongest to increases in oil and gas production (Simulation A and combined Simulation D).
  - Simulation C (electricity) produces a relatively low fiscal revenue increase due to taxation problems in the electricity sector.
  - The impact on real GDP growth is broadly uniform across scenarios, but the combined scenario (D) yields the largest GDP growth gains.

### Policy implications and recommendations
- Transparency:
  - Publish and use the modeling framework to trace and reconcile physical and financial flows; explain discrepancies publicly to build confidence.
  - Continue progress under EITI and improve accuracy of reporting on the energy sector.
- Revenue mobilization:
  - For oil and gas: reform bidding and contracting for new PSAs to boost government take.
  - For petroleum products: improve revenue collection and consider taxation adjustments benchmarked to neighboring countries; control taxable volumes.
  - For electricity: raise tariffs to sustainable levels and improve bill collection to reduce subsidies and fiscal strain.
- Efficiency improvements:
  - Award exploration rights transparently to highest bidders.
  - Increase private-sector efficiency where appropriate and reduce protection where it produces inefficiencies.
  - Address electricity subsector deficiencies via maintenance, rehabilitation, investment in new generation and technologies, reduction of technical losses, and expansion of reliable natural gas supplies.
- Fiscal strategy:
  - Given reconstruction needs and potentially high social discount rates, prioritize using energy revenues to finance investment and rebuild capital while improving long-term revenue management and contract frameworks.

*Source: _wp08156; national authorities; and IMF staff estimates.*

### 60.      References

### 60. References

### References
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- Bhattacharya, Rina and Ghura, Dhaneshwar (2006): “Oil and Growth in the Republic of Congo”, IMF Working Paper 06/185, Washington, DC.
- Blanchard, Olivier and Fischer, Stanley (1989): “Lectures on Macroeconomics”, The MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
- Churchill, Anthony and Saunders, Robert (1989): “Financing of Energy Sector in Developing Countries”, Industry and Energy Department Working Paper, Energy Series Paper, No 14, World Bank, Washington, DC.
- Davoodi, Hamid (2002): “Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability, Fiscal Sustainability, and Fiscal Stance in a Natural Resource-Rich Country”, in Republic of Kazakhstan – Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix, IMF Country Report No. 02/64, Washington, DC.
- Iwayemi, Akin (1998): “Energy Sector Development in Africa”, African Development Bank Economic Research Papers No. 43, Abidjan.
- Klueh, Ulrich; Pastor, Gonzalo; Segura, Alonso; and Zarate, Walter (2007): “Inter-sectoral Linkages and Local Content in Extractive Industries and Beyond–The Case of São Tomé and Príncipe“, IMF Working Paper 07/213
- Leigh, Daniel and Olters, Jan-Peter (2006): “Natural Resource Depletion, Habit Formation, and Sustainable Fiscal Policy: Lessons from Gabon”, IMF Working Paper 06/193, Washington, DC.
- Leite, Carlos and Weidmann, Jens (1999): “Does Mother Nature Corrupt? Natural Resources, Corruption and Economic Growth”, IMF Working Paper 99/85, Washington, DC.
- Segura, Alonso (2006): “Management of Oil Wealth under the Permanent Income Hypothesis: The Case of São Tomé and Príncipe”, IMF Working Paper 06/183, Washington, DC.
- IMF (2006a): “Regional Economic Outlook Sub-Saharan Africa May 2006”, World Economic and Financial Surveys, IMF, Washington, DC.
- IMF (2006b): “Regional Economic Outlook Sub-Saharan Africa September 2006”, World Economic and Financial Surveys, IMF, Washington, DC.
- IMF (2008): “Regional Economic Outlook Sub-Saharan Africa May 2008”, IMF, Washington, DC, forthcoming.
- Solow, Robert (1974): “Intergenerational Equity with and Exhaustible Resources”, The Review of Economic Studies, vol. 41, pp. 29-45.
- Stiglitz, Joseph (1974): “Growth with Exhaustible Natural Resources: Efficient and Optimal Growth Paths”, The Review of Economic Studies, vol. 41, pp. 123-137.
- UNDP and World Bank (1985): “Ivory Coast: Issues and Options in the Energy Sector”, Report of the Joint UNDP/World Bank Energy Sector Assessment Program No. 5250-IVC, New York, NY and Washington, DC.
- UNDP and World Bank (1990): “ESMAP Information and Status Report September 1990”, World Bank/UNDP/Bilateral Aid Energy Sector Management Assistance Program, New York, NY and Washington, DC.

### Appendix — Table A1. Côte d'Ivoire: Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production Shares
- Years covered: 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 Est., 2007
- Total oil production (millions of barils): 7.613, 7.814, 14.471, 22.194, 17.430
- Private sector before swap (millions of barils): 5.322, 5.465, 11.248, 17.746, 13.755
- Petroci before swap (millions of barils): 0.924, 0.949, 1.193, 1.788, 1.537
- Government before swap (millions of barils): 1.368, 1.401, 2.031, 2.660, 2.138
- Government after swap (millions of barils): 0.0, 0.0, 1.1, 1.6, 2.7
- Private sector and Petroci after swap (millions of barils): 7.613, 7.814, 13.403, 20.595, 14.723
- CI (crude index or category): 11.175, 1.199, 1.127, 0.871, 0.752

- Private sector before swap (other row): 0.376, 0.384, 0.361, 0.279, 0.241
- Petroci before swap (other row): 0.094, 0.096, 0.090, 0.070, 0.060
- Government before swap (other row): 0.705, 0.719, 0.676, 0.523, 0.451
- Government after swap (other row): 0.000, 0.000, 0.000, 0.000, 0.000

- Swap rate (MMBTU/bl): 12.721, 16.493, 23.129, 22.601, 19.688
- Discount ($/bl): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.3, -17.1
- CI (second block): 266.439, 6.616, 6.590, 10.433, 9.452

- Private sector before swap (third block): 4.946, 5.081, 5.062, 8.014, 7.260
- Petroci before swap (third block): 0.830, 0.853, 0.849, 1.345, 1.218
- Government before swap (third block): 0.663, 0.681, 0.679, 1.075, 0.974
- Government after swap (third block): 0.000, 0.000, 0.478, 0.705, 2.142
- Swap rate (MMBTU/bl) (third block): 5.870, 7.386, 7.638, 8.836, 8.421
- Discount ($/bl) (third block): -6.0, -6.0, -6.0, -2.3, -10.2
- CI (third block): 270.000, 0.000, 0.202, 0.188, 0.167

- Private sector before swap (fourth block): 0.000, 0.000, 0.085, 0.079, 0.070
- Petroci before swap (fourth block): 0.000, 0.000, 0.057, 0.053, 0.047
- Government before swap (fourth block): 0.000, 0.000, 0.061, 0.056, 0.050
- Government after swap (fourth block): 0.000, 0.000, 0.000, 0.000, 0.000
- Swap rate (MMBTU/bl) (fourth block): 6.733, 8.357, 8.769, 10.463, 9.269
- Discount ($/bl) (fourth block): -6.0, -6.0, -6.0, -1.0, -9.8
- CI (fourth block): 400.000, 0.000, 6.553, 10.703, 7.060

- Private sector before swap (fifth block): 0.000, 0.000, 0.000, 5.740, 9.375, 6.185
- Petroci before swap (fifth block): 0.000, 0.000, 0.000, 0.197, 0.321, 0.212
- Government before swap (fifth block): 0.000, 0.000, 0.000, 0.616, 1.006, 0.664
- Government after swap (fifth block): 0.000, 0.000, 0.000, 0.590, 0.894, 0.566
- Swap rate (MMBTU/bl) (fifth block): 8.805, 12.215, 18.213, 22.988, 20.387
- Discount ($/bl) (fifth block): -6.0, -6.0, -6.0, -4.5, -18.1

- Total gas production (millions of MMBTU): 48.6, 55.7, 51.3, 57.9, 53.8
- Private sector before swap (gas, millions of MMBTU): 20.5, 23.0, 20.9, 24.5, 22.9
- Petroci before swap (gas, millions of MMBTU): 5.1, 5.8, 5.2, 6.1, 5.7
- Government before swap (gas, millions of MMBTU): 23.0, 26.9, 25.2, 27.3, 25.2
- Government after swap (gas, millions of MMBTU): 35.9, 43.8, 43.3, 45.5, 40.3
- Private sector and Petroci after swap (gas, millions of MMBTU): 12.7, 11.9, 7.9, 12.4, 13.5
- CI (gas): 118.3, 23.5, 25.5, 20.9, 18.3

- Private sector before swap (gas other row): 5.8, 7.5, 8.1, 6.7, 5.9
- Petroci before swap (gas other row): 1.5, 1.9, 2.0, 1.7, 1.5
- Government before swap (gas other row): 11.0, 14.1, 15.3, 12.6, 11.0
- Government after swap (gas other row): 19.9, 26.0, 30.9, 24.4, 19.9
- Discount ($/MMBTU): -1.2, -1.5, -3.7, -5.5, -5.6
- CI (gas other block): 64.8, 5.1, 2.1, 3.3, 3.8

- Private sector before swap (gas small block): 1.5, 1.6, 0.7, 1.0, 1.2
- Petroci before swap (gas small block): 0.4, 0.4, 0.2, 0.3, 0.3
- Government before swap (gas small block): 2.9, 3.0, 1.3, 2.0, 2.3
- Government after swap (gas small block): 6.8, 8.1, 2.8, 5.2, 6.1
- Discount ($/MMBTU) (small block): 0.3, 0.5, 0.2, -1.3, -1.1
- CI (small block): 725.6, 27.1, 23.2, 31.2, 29.6

- Private sector before swap (gas larger block): 13.1, 13.9, 11.9, 16.0, 15.2
- Petroci before swap (gas larger block): 3.3, 3.5, 3.0, 4.0, 3.8
- Government before swap (gas larger block): 9.2, 9.8, 8.4, 11.2, 10.7
- Government after swap (gas larger block): 9.2, 9.8, 8.9, 11.8, 11.1
- Discount ($/MMBTU) (larger block): -0.2, 0.0, -0.6, -2.1, -1.7
- CI (larger block): 400.0, 0.0, 0.5, 2.6, 2.0

- Private sector before swap (final gas block): 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2, 0.8, 0.6
- Petroci before swap (final gas block): 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2
- Government before swap (final gas block): 0.0, 0.0, 0.3, 1.5, 1.2
- Government after swap (final gas block): 0.0, 0.0, 0.8, 4.1, 3.2
- Discount ($/MMBTU) (final gas block): -1.0, -1.2, -3.4, -5.8, -5.7

Memorandum:
- Crude oil price (US$/bl, WEO): 28.9, 37.8, 53.4, 64.3, 71.1
- Natural gas price (US$/MMBTU, WEO): 3.6, 3.8, 6.0, 8.4, 8.3
- Implied WEO swap rate (MMBTU/bl): 8.1, 9.9, 8.9, 7.7, 8.6
- Actual swap rate, weighted average (MMBTU/bl): 9.4, 12.1, 16.0, 16.9, 14.5
- Exchange Rate CFAF/US$ (period average): 580.15, 527.65, 526.65, 522.44, 478.6

- Source: Ivorien authorities and IMF staff estimates.

*Source: _wp08156 - 60.      References*

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