## _wp10245

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---

### Scope and purpose
- The HPDD (Historical Public Debt Database) covers gross government debt-to-GDP ratios for 174 countries over the period 1791-2009.
- Data start prior to 1880 for: the United States (1791), the United Kingdom (1830), New Zealand (1860), Italy (1861), Canada (1867), and Japan (1870).
- For most G-7 countries and a few other advanced and emerging economies coverage starts in 1880; additional advanced and emerging economies start in 1920; low-income countries (LICs) generally start in 1970.
- The HPDD was compiled from multiple researcher and institutional databases, official government publications, and League of Nations and United Nations publications; recent years are linked to the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) database.

### Data sources and relative contribution
- Total observations of debt-to-GDP: 7415
- Data sources and their reported relative contributions:
  - World Economic Outlook: 1970-2009 [42%]
  - Abbas and Christensen (2010): 1970-2007 [35%]
  - League of Nations/United Nations: 1914-83 [11%]
  - Flandreau and Zumer (2004): 1880-1913 [6%]
  - Other sources: 1960-2000 [6%]
- “Other sources” include Cowan, Levy-Yeyati, Panizza and Sturzenegger (2006), Fouad, Maliszewski, Hommes, Morsy, Petri and Söderling (2007), Jaimovich and Panizza (2010), Missale (2000), OECD Analytical Database, and national sources.

### Treatment of debt definitions and government sector coverage
- The HPDD aims to cover public debt at the general government level.
- Where general government data are unavailable, central government debt series were used as an alternative.
- Distinctions between general and central government coverage were often difficult to ascertain in earlier periods, particularly regarding extrabudgetary funds.

### GDP data sources and proxy treatments
- For most countries, GDP data were not available before 1914; proxies such as Gross National Product (GNP) or Net National Product (NNP) were used to compute debt ratios in earlier years.
- From 1914 through 1980, GDP data for most countries were mainly sourced from Mitchell (2003).
- Government publications provided GDP data for Canada, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
- For some Latin American countries, GDP data were taken from the Oxford Latin American Economic History database (1900–2000).
- OECD provided GDP data for some member countries beginning in 1960.
- Starting from the mid-1990s, GDP data for almost all countries were taken from the IMF WEO.

### Datasets used to fill gaps and their coverage highlights
- Researcher and institutional datasets incorporated include: Flandreau and Zumer (2004), Missale (2000), Abbas and Christensen (2010), Jaimovich and Panizza (2010), Cowan et al. (2006), Fouad et al. (2007), OECD, and IMF WEO.
- Specific dataset coverages cited:
  - Flandreau and Zumer (2004): 1880-1913 (15 European countries and two Latin American countries)
  - League of Nations/United Nations handbooks: 1914-83
  - Missale (2000): selected advanced countries, 1960–96
  - Abbas and Christensen (2010): 1970–2007 for 144 LICs and emerging economies
  - IMF WEO: mid-1990s onward for most countries; mid-2000s for some emerging economies and LICs
  - Cowan, Levy-Yeyati, Panizza, and Sturzenegger (2006): 29 countries in the Americas (1980–2005) plus three outside comparators
  - Fouad et al. (2007): 19 Middle Eastern and Central Asian countries (1990–2005)

### Methodological notes on series construction and continuity
- The HPDD is an unbalanced panel constructed by linking country series from different databases and treating breaks when transitioning from one series to another.
- The HPDD preserves data series as collected from original sources and provides detailed documentation on coverage and sources.
- The HPDD will be regularly updated through links to the IMF WEO database and supplemented, where available, to fill gaps.
- Independence date for each country (reported in Appendix Table 2) was the primary benchmark for data collection.
  - Exceptions where debt data pre-dated independence but were retained because they were consistent with later trends: Finland, Dominica, Grenada, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand, Norway, Slovakia, and Zimbabwe.
- Historical entities included under successor states: Austria-Hungary reported under Austria; Czechoslovakia reported under Czech Republic.
- Dataset compiled without extrapolation, interpolation, or auxiliary regressions.
- Breaks and continuity:
  - A total of 81 breaks were implemented in 58 countries, with a maximum of four breaks per country for only a couple of countries.
  - The majority of breaks minimized step differences when transitioning from one data source to another.
- Construction of long-run PPP GDP series used two datasets:
  - IMF WEO database on PPP GDP: continuous coverage for all 174 countries, goes back about 30 years.
  - Maddison (2010) dataset on real GDP (international Geary-Khamis dollars): about 140 countries over a long period, with gaps, ending in 2008.
- In the HPDD:
  - Used the Maddison series for 140 countries.
  - Filled remaining countries from the WEO database through 2008.
  - Estimated 2009 PPP GDP data using growth rates from the WEO PPP GDP series.

### Descriptive statistics and public debt trends
- Country coverage and timing:
  - At the start of the 1880–2009 period, debt ratios could be identified for about 20 countries, mainly in Europe.
  - Sample size rises significantly in 1970 due to Abbas and Christensen (2010) and the IMF WEO bringing in several Latin American LICs and most post-colonial states in Africa, Asia and the Middle East.
  - Another wave of new countries appears in the 1990s following the breakup of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia.
  - Note: There were 118 independent countries prior to 1970 in the dataset, but with large data gaps for some (example: China start date 1984; Russia pre-WW1 coverage 1885–1913 and from 1992 onward).
- Comparisons across crises:
  - Current global financial crisis implications for public debt appear graver than the Great Depression, despite a less dramatic growth impact, reflecting a weaker starting point.
  - Debt ratios were 20 percentage points of GDP higher, on average, in advanced G-20 countries in 2007 (PPPGDP-weighted average) than in 1928.
  - Crisis-related factors in both periods: sharp drop in revenues and provision of stimulus and financial sector support.
- Long-run averages and volatility:
  - G-20 advanced economies averaged 55 percent of GDP over 1880–2009.
  - Non-advanced economies averaged 44 percent of GDP during 1880–2009, which is 11 percentage points of GDP lower than advanced economies.
  - Standard deviation: non-advanced economies 24.4 percentage points of GDP; advanced economies 19.9 percentage points of GDP.
  - Coefficient of variation: advanced economies 0.36; rest 0.55.
- Historical dynamics for advanced G-20 economies:
  - First era of financial globalization (1880-1913): debt ratios trended down.
  - World War I and subsequent fiscal crises produced a debt spike.
  - Reductions in the 1920s followed by spikes linked to the Great Depression (early 1930s) and World War II (1941–45); World War II pushed PPPGDP-weighted average debt well above 100 percent of GDP.
  - By 1960, advanced G-20 average debt ratio declined to 50 percent of GDP due to rapid growth and inflation.
  - Debt trended down through early 1970s; accumulation began mid-1970s and continued up to the global financial crisis.
- Emerging countries, LICs, and regional patterns:
  - Emerging countries and LICs exhibited lower average debt ratios but greater volatility; notable crisis-linked volatility in Latin America (early 1980s) and Asia (late 1990s).
  - LICs: sharp debt buildup through the 1980s and a reduction over the past 15 years, including HIPC and MDRI impacts.
  - Sub-Saharan Africa heat maps show contrasting conditions in 1994 (debt overhang) and 2009 (post-HIPC relief).
- Oil producers:
  - Debt ratios were inversely correlated with oil prices over 1965–2009.
  - Caveat: this inverse link would be muted if fiscal surpluses/deficits mainly led to savings buildups/drawdowns rather than changes in gross debt.
  - Oil producers list (as used in the HPDD) includes: Norway, Bolivia, Ecuador, Mexico, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Bahrain, Iran, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Brunei Dar-us-Salaam, Indonesia, Vietnam, Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, Chad, Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Nigeria, Sudan, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation.
- Debt and growth relationship:
  - Countries categorized by average PPP GDP growth (1880–2009) into terciles:
    - Fast growth countries: average growth rates ≥ 4 percent.
    - Slow growth countries: average growth rates ≤ 3 percent.
    - Medium growth countries: average growth rates between the two thresholds.
  - Fast growers consistently registered low debt ratios; slow growers carried the highest debts for much of the sample.
  - Bubble chart analysis indicates general inverse movements between debt and PPP GDP for advanced, emerging and low income countries (north-west or south-east bubble movements), with a notable exception:
    - Advanced economies experienced rising incomes from 1970–2007 despite rising public debt ratios.
- Notable single-year and cross-country facts:
  - Largest single-year debt ratio increases (percentage points) for G-20 advanced countries: 22 percentage points of GDP in 1944; 14 percentage points in 1919; and 13 percentage points in 2009.
  - Largest single-year declines: 1969 (-7 percentage points) and 2000 (-3 percentage points).
  - Subsample of 34 countries with >50 years of coverage (1880–2009):
    - Country with the lowest median ratio: Finland (15 percent of GDP).
    - Only country among the subsample that did not breach a debt level of 60 percent of GDP: Colombia, with an average debt ratio of 25 percent of GDP and a maximum of 47 percent of GDP.

### Way forward (policy and data development)
- Primary aims:
  - Expand years and countries covered in the HPDD as additional sources are identified.
  - Fill GDP gaps that inhibited computation of debt-to-GDP ratios in earlier periods through careful extrapolation of the GDP series.
- Data augmentation and gap-filling:
  - Table 1 lists candidates for potential augmentation of HPDD coverage (countries with debt data but not simultaneous GDP data for certain periods).
  - Attempts will be made to fill major gaps in nominal debt series, possibly utilizing fiscal deficit data for interceding years; notable gaps in periods 1913–1939 and 1952–1970 may be addressed using such methods.
  - Potential future expansions: split public debt into domestic and external components; expand database to include revenues, expenditures, and deficits.
- Feedback:
  - Notification of omissions or supplementary sources is welcome and will be fully acknowledged.

### Appendix Table 1 — Selected database descriptions and headline variables
- Abbas and Christensen (Abbas, S.M.A. and J. E. Christensen (2010))
  - Country Coverage: 144 Developing and Emerging Countries
  - Period: 1970-2007
  - Headline: Gross Government Debt/GDP
  - Definitions and Comments: Refers to central government debt.
- Canada - Official Government Publication (Canada Year Book Historical Collection)
  - Country Coverage: Canada
  - Period: 1867-1976
  - Headline: Gross Federal Debt
  - Definitions and Comments: Consolidated government refers to consolidation of federal, provincial and territorial general governments, local governments and non-autonomous pension plans.
- CLYPS (Cowan K., Levy-Yeyati E., Panizza U. and Sturzenegger F. (2006))
  - Country Coverage: 29 countries in the Americas plus New Zealand, Pakistan, South Africa, etc.
  - Period: 1980-2005
  - Headline: Gross Public Debt
  - Definitions and Comments: Total central government gross debt includes total external and domestic debt.
- Flandreau and Zumer (Flandreau M. and F. Zumer (2004))
  - Country Coverage: 17 countries (Austria, Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Russia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, U.K.)
  - Period: 1880-1913
  - Headline: Nominal Public Debt / GDP
  - Definitions and Comments: Debt figures combine both short-term and long-term debt of the central government.
- Fouad et al. (Fouad M., W. Maliszewski, M. Hommes, H. Morsy, M. Petri, and L. Söderling (2007))
  - Country Coverage: Middle-Eastern countries (19 countries)
  - Period: 1990-2005
  - Headline: Could refer to either public sector debt, general government debt or central government debt.
  - Definitions and Comments: Standard GFSM (2001) definitions.
- Italy - Official Government Publication (Bank D'Italia: Francese, Maura, and Angelo Pace (2008))
  - Country Coverage: Italy
  - Period: 1861-2009
  - Headline: Total Consolidated Debt of Public Administrations
  - Definitions and Comments: Comprises total consolidated gross debt across all sectors of the public administration.
- Japan - Official Government Publication (Hundred-Year Statistics Book of the Japanese Economy (1966))
  - Country Coverage: Japan
  - Period: 1870-2009 (coverage segments listed in source text)
  - Headline: Central Government Debt
  - Definitions and Comments: Includes bonds, financial bills, and borrowings (including those held in special accounts, some classified as public corporations).
- LON (League of Nations Archives)
  - Country Coverage: LON Member Countries
  - Period: 1919-1930
  - Headline: Central Government Public Debt
  - Definitions and Comments: Public debt refers to amount outstanding at end of financial year; data available as gross or net debt; only gross debt data were collected.
- Missale (Alessandro Missale (2000))
  - Country Coverage / Period (selected): 1880 - 1913 (EHNET); 1924-1958 (UN/MIT); 1959-1976 (UN/OECD); 1977-1989 (MISS/OECD); 1990-1996 (OECD); 1997-2005 (WEO/OECD); 2005-2009 (WEO)
  - Headline (period covered in table): 1960-1996
  - Headline variable: Total Government Debt/GDP
  - Definitions and Comments: Refers to the central government.
- Mitchell (B. R. Mitchell (2003))
  - Country Coverage: 46 Countries (listed in source)
  - Period: 1870-2000
  - Headline variables: GDP, GNP, NMP, NNP.
  - Definitions and Comments: Comprises GDP, CF (capital formation: gross excluding stocks), GNP, NMP, NNP.
- Netherlands - Official Government Publication - Debt
  - Period: 1914-1989
  - Headline: Central Government Debt
- Netherlands - Official Government Publication - GDP
  - Period: 1800–1999
  - Headline: GDP
- New Zealand - Official Government Publication
  - Period: 1860-2000
  - Headline: Central Government Debt and GDP.
- OECD (2009) Central Government Debt - Country Tables 2009
  - Country Coverage: OECD Member Countries (30 Countries).
  - Period: 1990-2009
  - Headline: Gross Public Debt (Maastricht Criterion)
- Oxford Latin American Economic History Database (OxLAD)
  - Country Coverage: 20 Countries
  - Period: 1990-2000
  - Headline: GDP
- UN (United Nations Statistical Yearbooks)
  - Period: 1919 - 1983
  - Headline: Central Government Public Debt
- United Kingdom Historical Statistics
  - Period: 1830-1980
  - Headline: General Government Debt
- United States Historical Statistics
  - Period: 1791-2007
  - Headline: Federal Government Debt
- WEO Database (World Economic Outlook (2010))
  - Country Coverage: IMF Member Countries (187 Countries).
  - Period: 1977-2009
  - Headline: General Government Gross Debt

### Table notes, source coding and provenance
- Exact headline variables preserved verbatim where provided, e.g., "Total Government Debt/GDP"; "GDP, GNP, NMP, NNP"; "Central Government Debt"; "Gross Public Debt (Maastricht Criterion)"; "Nominal GDP in local currency units"; "General Government Gross Debt".
- Period coverage examples preserved verbatim: "1880 - 1913"; "1870-2000"; "1914-1989"; "1800–1999"; "1860-2000"; "1990-2009"; "1990-2000"; "1919 - 1983"; "1830-1980"; "1791-2007"; "1977-2009".
- Country counts and groupings preserved exactly where given: "46 Countries"; "30 Countries"; "20 Countries"; "187 Countries".
- Source abbreviations used across tables:
  - (AC) refers to Abbas and Christensen (2010)
  - (CLYPS) refers to Cowan K. et al. (2006)
  - (EHNET) refers to Flandreau and Zumer (2004)
  - (FO) refers to Fouad et al. (2007)
  - (JP) refers to Jaimovich and Panniza (2010)
  - (LON) refers to League of Nations Statistical Handbooks (Various editions)
  - (MISS) refers to Missale (2000)
  - (MIT) refers to Mitchell (2003)
  - (OECD) refers to the Organization of Economic Co-Operation and Development (2009)
  - WEO refers to the World Economic Outlook (2010)
  - (OXLAD) refers to Oxford Latin American Economic History Database (2003)
  - (UN) refers to the United Nations Statistical Handbooks (Various editions)
- When both debt and GDP series are drawn from the same source and/or a debt-to-GDP ratio is directly drawn from a data source, the parenthesis include only that one source. When debt and GDP series are drawn from two different sources, the two sources are cited in the parenthesis with the debt series drawn from the first source, while GDP series is drawn from the second source.

*Source: HPDD and Appendix Table 1 and Appendix Table 2 content from the specified PDF content unit.*

### 1.  Distribution of HPDD Debt-to-GDP Observations by Data Source .....................................7

### 1.  Distribution of HPDD Debt-to-GDP Observations by Data Source .....................................7

### Scope and purpose
- The HPDD (Historical Public Debt Database) covers gross government debt-to-GDP ratios for 174 countries over the period 1791-2009.
- Data start prior to 1880 for: the United States (1791), the United Kingdom (1830), New Zealand (1860), Italy (1861), Canada (1867), and Japan (1870).
- For most G-7 countries and a few other advanced and emerging economies coverage starts in 1880; additional advanced and emerging economies start in 1920; low-income countries (LICs) generally start in 1970.
- The HPDD was compiled from multiple researcher and institutional databases, official government publications, and League of Nations and United Nations publications; recent years are linked to the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) database.

### Data sources and relative contribution (as reported in Figure 1)
- World Economic Outlook: 1970-2009 [42%]
- Abbas and Christensen (2010): 1970-2007 [35%]
- League of Nations/United Nations: 1914-83 [11%]
- Flandreau and Zumer (2004): 1880-1913 [6%]
- Other sources: 1960-2000 [6%]
  - “Other sources” include Cowan, Levy-Yeyati, Panizza and Sturzenegger (2006), Fouad, Maliszewski, Hommes, Morsy, Petri and Söderling (2007), Jaimovich and Panizza (2010), Missale (2000), OECD Analytical Database, and national sources.
- Total observations of debt-to-GDP: 7415

### Treatment of debt definitions and government sector coverage
- The HPDD aims to cover public debt at the general government level.
- Where general government data are unavailable, central government debt series were used as an alternative.
- Distinctions between general and central government coverage were often difficult to ascertain in earlier periods, particularly regarding extrabudgetary funds.

### GDP data sources and proxy treatments
- For most countries, GDP data were not available before 1914; proxies such as Gross National Product (GNP) or Net National Product (NNP) were used to compute debt ratios in earlier years.
- From 1914 through 1980, GDP data for most countries were mainly sourced from Mitchell (2003).
- Government publications provided GDP data for Canada, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
- For some Latin American countries, GDP data were taken from the Oxford Latin American Economic History database (1900–2000).
- OECD provided GDP data for some member countries beginning in 1960.
- Starting from the mid-1990s, GDP data for almost all countries were taken from the IMF WEO.

### Datasets used to fill gaps and their coverage highlights
- Researcher and institutional datasets incorporated include: Flandreau and Zumer (2004), Missale (2000), Abbas and Christensen (2010), Jaimovich and Panizza (2010), Cowan et al. (2006), Fouad et al. (2007), OECD, and IMF WEO.
- Specific dataset coverages cited:
  - Flandreau and Zumer (2004): 1880-1913 (15 European countries and two Latin American countries)
  - League of Nations/United Nations handbooks: 1914-83
  - Missale (2000): selected advanced countries, 1960–96
  - Abbas and Christensen (2010): 1970–2007 for 144 LICs and emerging economies
  - IMF WEO: mid-1990s onward for most countries; mid-2000s for some emerging economies and LICs
  - Cowan, Levy-Yeyati, Panizza, and Sturzenegger (2006): 29 countries in the Americas (1980–2005) plus three outside comparators
  - Fouad et al. (2007): 19 Middle Eastern and Central Asian countries (1990–2005)

### Methodological notes on series construction and continuity
- The HPDD is an unbalanced panel constructed by linking country series from different databases and treating breaks when transitioning from one series to another.
- The HPDD preserves data series as collected from original sources and provides detailed documentation on coverage and sources.
- The HPDD will be regularly updated through links to the IMF WEO database and supplemented, where available, to fill gaps.

*Source: HPDD (as described in the provided IMF working paper content).*

### Appendix Table 1. Appendix Table 2 documents the data sources used, over different time

### _wp10245 - Appendix Table 1. Appendix Table 2 documents the data sources used, over different time horizons, for each country.

### B. Methodology
- Independence date for each country (reported in Appendix Table 2) was the primary benchmark for data collection.
- Exceptions where debt data pre-dated independence but were retained because they were consistent with later trends: Finland, Dominica, Grenada, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand, Norway, Slovakia, and Zimbabwe.
- Historical entities included under successor states: Austria-Hungary reported under Austria; Czechoslovakia reported under Czech Republic.
- Dataset compiled without extrapolation, interpolation, or auxiliary regressions.
- Differences in source coverage and definitions produced some transitions that were smooth and others that produced step differences or changes in implied direction of debt ratios; in such cases breaks were implemented in the HPDD and are highlighted in the dataset.
  - A total of 81 breaks were implemented in 58 countries, with a maximum of four breaks per country for only a couple of countries.
  - The majority of breaks minimized step differences when transitioning from one data source to another.
- Construction of long-run PPP GDP series used two datasets:
  - IMF WEO database on PPP GDP: continuous coverage for all 174 countries, goes back about 30 years.
  - Maddison (2010) dataset on real GDP (international Geary-Khamis dollars): about 140 countries over a long period, with gaps, ending in 2008.
- In the HPDD:
  - Used the Maddison series for 140 countries.
  - Filled remaining countries from the WEO database through 2008.
  - Estimated 2009 PPP GDP data using growth rates from the WEO PPP GDP series.

### IV. Descriptive statistics and public debt trends
- Country coverage:
  - At the start of the 1880–2009 period, debt ratios could be identified for about 20 countries, mainly in Europe.
  - Sample size rises significantly in 1970 due to Abbas and Christensen (2010) and the IMF WEO bringing in several Latin American LICs and most post-colonial states in Africa, Asia and the Middle East.
  - Another wave of new countries appears in the 1990s following the breakup of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia.
  - Note: There were 118 independent countries prior to 1970 in the dataset, but with large data gaps for some (example: China start date 1984; Russia pre-WW1 coverage 1885–1913 and from 1992 onward).
- Comparisons across crises:
  - Current global financial crisis implications for public debt appear graver than the Great Depression, despite a less dramatic growth impact, reflecting a weaker starting point.
  - Debt ratios were 20 percentage points of GDP higher, on average, in advanced G-20 countries in 2007 (PPPGDP-weighted average) than in 1928.
  - Crisis-related factors in both periods: sharp drop in revenues and provision of stimulus and financial sector support.
- Long-run averages and volatility:
  - G-20 advanced economies averaged 55 percent of GDP over 1880–2009.
  - Non-advanced economies averaged 44 percent of GDP during 1880–2009, which is 11 percentage points of GDP lower than advanced economies.
  - Standard deviation: non-advanced economies 24.4 percentage points of GDP; advanced economies 19.9 percentage points of GDP.
  - Coefficient of variation: advanced economies 0.36; rest 0.55.
- Historical dynamics for advanced G-20 economies:
  - First era of financial globalization (1880-1913): debt ratios trended down.
  - World War I and subsequent fiscal crises produced a debt spike.
  - Reductions in the 1920s followed by spikes linked to the Great Depression (early 1930s) and World War II (1941–45); World War II pushed PPPGDP-weighted average debt well above 100 percent of GDP.
  - By 1960, advanced G-20 average debt ratio declined to 50 percent of GDP due to rapid growth and inflation.
  - Debt trended down through early 1970s; accumulation began mid-1970s and continued up to the global financial crisis.
- Emerging countries, LICs, and regional patterns:
  - Emerging countries and LICs exhibited lower average debt ratios but greater volatility; notable crisis-linked volatility in Latin America (early 1980s) and Asia (late 1990s).
  - LICs: sharp debt buildup through the 1980s and a reduction over the past 15 years, including HIPC and MDRI impacts.
  - Sub-Saharan Africa heat maps show contrasting conditions in 1994 (debt overhang) and 2009 (post-HIPC relief).
- Oil producers:
  - Debt ratios were inversely correlated with oil prices over 1965–2009.
  - Caveat: this inverse link would be muted if fiscal surpluses/deficits mainly led to savings buildups/drawdowns rather than changes in gross debt.
  - Oil producers list (as used in the HPDD) includes: Norway, Bolivia, Ecuador, Mexico, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Bahrain, Iran, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Brunei Dar-us-Salaam, Indonesia, Vietnam, Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, Chad, Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Nigeria, Sudan, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation.
- Debt and growth relationship:
  - Countries categorized by average PPP GDP growth (1880–2009) into terciles:
    - Fast growth countries: average growth rates ≥ 4 percent.
    - Slow growth countries: average growth rates ≤ 3 percent.
    - Medium growth countries: average growth rates between the two thresholds.
  - Fast growers consistently registered low debt ratios; slow growers carried the highest debts for much of the sample.
  - Bubble chart analysis indicates general inverse movements between debt and PPP GDP for advanced, emerging and low income countries (north-west or south-east bubble movements), with a notable exception:
    - Advanced economies experienced rising incomes from 1970–2007 despite rising public debt ratios.
- Notable single-year and cross-country facts:
  - Largest single-year debt ratio increases (percentage points) for G-20 advanced countries: 22 percentage points of GDP in 1944; 14 percentage points in 1919; and 13 percentage points in 2009.
  - Largest single-year declines: 1969 (-7 percentage points) and 2000 (-3 percentage points).
  - Subsample of 34 countries with >50 years of coverage (1880–2009):
    - Country with the lowest median ratio: Finland (15 percent of GDP).
    - Only country among the subsample that did not breach a debt level of 60 percent of GDP: Colombia, with an average debt ratio of 25 percent of GDP and a maximum of 47 percent of GDP.

### V. Way forward
- Primary aims:
  - Expand years and countries covered in the HPDD as additional sources are identified.
  - Fill GDP gaps that inhibited computation of debt-to-GDP ratios in earlier periods through careful extrapolation of the GDP series.
- Data augmentation and gap-filling:
  - Table 1 lists candidates for potential augmentation of HPDD coverage (countries with debt data but not simultaneous GDP data for certain periods).
  - Attempts will be made to fill major gaps in nominal debt series, possibly utilizing fiscal deficit data for interceding years; notable gaps in periods 1913–1939 and 1952–1970 may be addressed using such methods.
  - Potential future expansions: split public debt into domestic and external components; expand database to include revenues, expenditures, and deficits.
- Feedback:
  - Notification of omissions or supplementary sources is welcome and will be fully acknowledged.

### Appendix Table 1. Description of the Database Sources (selected entries)
- Abbas and Christensen (Abbas, S.M.A. and J. E. Christensen (2010))
  - Country Coverage: 144 Developing and Emerging Countries
  - Period: 1970-2007
  - Headline: Gross Government Debt/GDP
  - Definitions and Comments: Refers to central government debt.
- Canada - Official Government Publication (Canada Year Book Historical Collection)
  - Country Coverage: Canada
  - Period: 1867-1976
  - Headline: Gross Federal Debt
  - Definitions and Comments: Consolidated government refers to consolidation of federal, provincial and territorial general governments, local governments and non-autonomous pension plans.
- CLYPS (Cowan K., Levy-Yeyati E., Panizza U. and Sturzenegger F. (2006))
  - Country Coverage: 29 countries in the Americas plus New Zealand, Pakistan, South Africa, etc.
  - Period: 1980-2005
  - Headline: Gross Public Debt
  - Definitions and Comments: Total central government gross debt includes total external and domestic debt.
- Flandreau and Zumer (Flandreau M. and F. Zumer (2004))
  - Country Coverage: 17 countries (Austria, Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Russia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, U.K.)
  - Period: 1880-1913
  - Headline: Nominal Public Debt / GDP
  - Definitions and Comments: Debt figures combine both short-term and long-term debt of the central government.
- Fouad et al. (Fouad M., W. Maliszewski, M. Hommes, H. Morsy, M. Petri, and L. Söderling (2007))
  - Country Coverage: Middle-Eastern countries (19 countries)
  - Period: 1990-2005
  - Headline: Could refer to either public sector debt, general government debt or central government debt.
  - Definitions and Comments: Standard GFSM (2001) definitions.
- France - Official Government Publication (INSEE - Department Comptes Nationaux)
  - Country Coverage: France
  - Period: 1949-1977
  - Headline: Total Central Government Debt
  - Definitions and Comments: Central government debt.
- Germany - Official Government Publication (Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland)
  - Country Coverage: Germany
  - Period: 1950-1975
  - Headline: General Government Debt
  - Definitions and Comments: Credit Market Debt and Loans for strengthening cash resources of public budgets.
- Italy - Official Government Publication (Bank D'Italia: Francese, Maura, and Angelo Pace (2008))
  - Country Coverage: Italy
  - Period: 1861-2009
  - Headline: Total Consolidated Debt of Public Administrations
  - Definitions and Comments: Comprises total consolidated gross debt across all sectors of the public administration.
- Jaimovich and Panizza (Jaimovich D. and U. Panizza (2010))
  - Country Coverage: 100 Advanced and Emerging Countries
  - Period: 1970-2005
  - Headline: Gross Public Debt / GDP
  - Definitions and Comments: Refers to the central government.
- Japan - Official Government Publication (Hundred-Year Statistics Book of the Japanese Economy (1966))
  - Country Coverage: Japan
  - Period: 1870-2009 (coverage segments listed in source text)
  - Headline: Central Government Debt
  - Definitions and Comments: Includes bonds, financial bills, and borrowings (including those held in special accounts, some classified as public corporations).
- LON (League of Nations Archives)
  - Country Coverage: LON Member Countries
  - Period: 1919-1930
  - Headline: Central Government Public Debt
  - Definitions and Comments: Public debt refers to amount outstanding at end of financial year; data available as gross or net debt; only gross debt data were collected.

*Source: HPDD and Appendix Table 1 and Appendix Table 2 content from the specified PDF content unit.*

### Appendix Table 1. Description of

### Appendix Table 1. Description of the Database Sources (Cont.)

### Database entries and headline variables
- Missale
  - Reference: Missale, Alessandro (2000) Public Debt Management. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  - Country Coverage / Period: 1880 - 1913 (EHNET); 1924-1958 (UN/MIT); 1959-1976 (UN/OECD); 1977-1989 (MISS/OECD); 1990-1996 (OECD); 1997-2005 (WEO/OECD); 2005-2009 (WEO)
  - Headline (period covered in table): 1960-1996
  - Headline variable: Total Government Debt/GDP
  - Definitions and Comments: Refers to the central government.

- Mitchell
  - Reference: B. R. Mitchell (2003) International Historical Statistics: 1750-2000. Basingstoke and New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 4th edn. Several Editions: Africa, Asia and Oceania; Europe; and The Americas.
  - Country Coverage: Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Kenya, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Portugal, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States (46 Countries).
  - Period: 1870-2000
  - Headline variables: GDP, GNP, NMP, NNP.
  - Definitions and Comments: Comprises GDP, CF (capital formation: gross excluding stocks), GNP (gross national product), NMP (net material product), NNP (net national product (i.e. national income)). NMP is calculated for the material production sectors only, and excludes most of the service sectors, which are part of GDP. NNP is the total market value of all final goods and services produced by residents in a country or other polity during a given period (gross national product or GNP) minus depreciation. The main sources used are official, including the United Nations, Yearbooks of National Accounts Statistics and National Income Statistics (Statistics of National Income and Expenditure, International Financial Statistics.) Some national publications were also used.

- Netherlands - Official Government Publication - Debt
  - Source: Dutch State Treasury Agency website accessed in June 2010. http://www.dsta.nl/english/News/Statistical_Information
  - Country Coverage: The Netherlands
  - Period: 1914-1989
  - Headline: Central Government Debt
  - Definitions and Comments: Includes money market and capital market debt.

- Netherlands - Official Government Publication - GDP
  - Reference: Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (2001). "Tweehonderd jaar statistiek in tijdreeksen 1800–1999".
  - Country Coverage: The Netherlands
  - Period: 1800–1999
  - Headline: GDP
  - Definitions and Comments: GDP at market prices.

- New Zealand - Official Government Publication
  - Source: Statistics New Zealand website on Long Term Data Series (LTDS) accessed in June 2010. http://www.stats.govt.nz/
  - Country Coverage: New Zealand
  - Period: 1860-2000
  - Headline: Central Government Debt and GDP.
  - Definitions and Comments: Central government debt refers to total consolidated gross central government debt.

- OECD
  - Reference: OECD (2009) Central Government Debt - Country Tables 2009. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris, France.
  - Country Coverage: OECD Member Countries (30 Countries).
  - Period: 1990-2009
  - Headline: Gross Public Debt (Maastricht Criterion)
  - Definitions and Comments: General government gross debt according to the convergence criteria set out in the Masstricht Treaty comprises currency, bills and short-term bonds, other short-term loans and other medium- and long term loans and bonds. Debt is consolidated within the general government. Financial liabilities like trade credits extended to the government are not included. Debt is in nominal values. Gross debt according to this criterion does not include trade credits and advances, and government bonds are valued at nominal value.

- Oxford Latin American Economic History Database (OxLAD)
  - Reference: Oxford Latin American Economic History Database (OxLAD), Latin American Center, Oxford University (2003).
  - Country Coverage: Argentina, Chile, Cuba, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, Uruguay, Bolivia, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Mexico, Paraguay, Venezuela, Brazil, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Haiti, Nicaragua, Peru (20 Countries).
  - Period: 1990-2000
  - Headline: GDP
  - Definitions and Comments: Nominal GDP in local currency units.

- UN (United Nations Statistical Yearbooks)
  - Reference: United Nations Statistical Yearbooks (1948-1949, 1952, 1958, 1965, 1973, 1986).
  - Country Coverage: UN Member Countries
  - Period: 1919 - 1983
  - Headline: Central Government Public Debt
  - Definitions and Comments: With the exception of the USSR, the budgetary accounts figures refer to central government. Figures shown for each country are normally comparable unless there has been a change in the method of accounting. Constraints on comparability across countries arise from differences in: (1) the proportion between public and private activities; (2) the proportion between the activities of public, central, regional, local and other public bodies; (3) the methods of accounting. Figures for the estimates and budgetary accounts in some countries are, as a principle, reported on a gross basis; in others they are on a net basis.

- United Kingdom Historical Statistics
  - Reference: B.R. Mitchell, British Historical Statistics Chapter XVI (CUP 1988); and Office for National Statistics of the United Kingdom (ONS).
  - Country Coverage: United Kingdom
  - Period: 1830-1980
  - Headline: General Government Debt
  - Definitions and Comments: Nominal amount of the Unredeemed Capital of the Public Debt of the United Kingdom at the end of each financial year (1691-1980). All figures of the total national debt refer to the sum of funded and unfunded debt, regardless of whether the financial years are the same for both. All statistics since 1919 exclude the amounts of Funding Loan and Victory Bonds tendered for duties under section 3(3) of the War Loan Act (1919) and held by the National Debt Commissioners. From 1940 the amount of funded debt has changed very little and it is not shown separately from unfunded debt.

- United States Historical Statistics
  - Reference: Historical Statistics of the United States (2006) Edited by Susan B. Carter, S. S. Gartner, M. R. Haines, A. L. Olmstead, R. Sutch, G. Wright. Cambridge University Press.
  - Country Coverage: United States
  - Period: 1791-2007
  - Headline: Federal Government Debt
  - Definitions and Comments: Figures represent gross federal debt outstanding.

- WEO Database
  - Reference: World Economic Outlook (2010). International Monetary Fund, April 2010.
  - Country Coverage: IMF Member Countries (187 Countries).
  - Period: 1977-2009
  - Headline: General Government Gross Debt
  - Definitions and Comments: Gross debt consists of all liabilities that require payment or payments of interest and/or principal by the debtor to the creditor at a date or dates in the future. This includes debt liabilities in the form of SDRs, currency and deposits, debt securities, loans, insurance, pensions and standardized guarantee schemes, and other accounts payable. Thus, all liabilities in the GFSM 2001 system are debt, except for equity and investment fund shares and financial derivatives and employee stock options. Debt can be valued at current market, nominal, or face values.

### Table notes and definitions summary
- Exact headline variables in source entries include: Total Government Debt/GDP; GDP, GNP, NMP, NNP; Central Government Debt; Central Government Debt and GDP; Gross Public Debt (Maastricht Criterion); Nominal GDP in local currency units; Central Government Public Debt; General Government Debt; Federal Government Debt; General Government Gross Debt.
- Period coverage examples (preserved verbatim): "1880 - 1913"; "1870-2000"; "1914-1989"; "1800–1999"; "1860-2000"; "1990-2009"; "1990-2000"; "1919 - 1983"; "1830-1980"; "1791-2007"; "1977-2009".
- Country counts and groupings preserved exactly where given: "46 Countries"; "30 Countries"; "20 Countries"; "187 Countries".

### Notes on source coding and provenance (from Appendix Table 2 notes)
- Source abbreviations used across tables:
  - (AC) refers to Abbas and Christensen (2010)
  - (CLYPS) refers to Cowan K. et al. (2006)
  - (EHNET) refers to Flandreau and Zumer (2004)
  - (FO) refers to Fouad et al. (2007)
  - (JP) refers to Jaimovich and Panniza (2010)
  - (LON) refers to League of Nations Statistical Handbooks (Various editions)
  - (MISS) refers to Missale (2000)
  - (MIT) refers to Mitchell (2003)
  - (OECD) refers to the Organization of Economic Co-Operation and Development (2009)
  - WEO refers to the World Economic Outlook (2010)
  - (OXLAD) refers to Oxford Latin American Economic History Database (2003)
  - (UN) refers to the United Nations Statistical Handbooks (Various editions)
- When both debt and GDP series are drawn from the same source and/or a debt-to-GDP ratio is directly drawn from a data source, the parenthesis include only that one source. When debt and GDP series are drawn from two different sources, the two sources are cited in the parenthesis with the debt series drawn from the first source, while GDP series is drawn from the second source.

*Source: _wp10245 - Appendix Table 1. Description of the Database Sources (Cont.), IMF working paper appendix content provided.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/_wp10245.pdf_