## _wp12200 - Appendix 2: Parametric Specification of the Extended Model

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### Introduction: context and objectives
- Countries dependent on non-renewable natural resources face short-run volatility and long-run need to rebalance wealth away from exhaustible natural capital so that the non-resource sector generates enough wealth after exhaustion of natural capital.
- Empirical context: share of natural capital in developing countries in Africa and the Middle East “amount to over thirty percent of overall wealth” versus “below five percent” for advanced economies.
- Paper aim: foster understanding of optimal public investment decisions in countries experiencing a resource windfall using an augmented Permanent Income framework with public investment adjustment costs and government transfers.
- Key modelling assumption: adjustment costs in public investment rise with the size of the resource windfall (net present value).

### Major analytical findings (analytical model)
- Three main analytical results:
  - A larger resource windfall commands a lower level of public capital but a higher level of redistribution through transfers.
  - Weaker administrative capacity lowers the increase in optimal public capital following a resource windfall.
  - Higher total factor productivity (TFP) in the non-resource sector reduces the degree of de-investment in public capital commanded by weaker administrative capacity.
- Institutional and empirical rationale:
  - Adjustment costs capture administrative capacity and corruption/rent-seeking associated with larger windfalls (Arezki and Bruckner (2011) evidence).
  - Quality of public investment management is on average lower in resource rich countries (Kyobe et al. (2011) public investment management index).
  - Non-resource sector TFP is used as a measure of economic institution quality; Africa identified as region with lowest non-resource sector TFP in the paper’s Figure 4.
  - Empirical evidence that quality of economic institutions matters for government expenditure to boost non-resource sector growth (Arezki et al. (2011), 1970–2007 panel).

### Simple model of public investment: setup and mechanism
- Economy and production:
  - Small open economy, government can borrow/lend at world rate r^*, sovereign debt C, two sectors (resource and non-resource).
  - Non-resource domestic income: H(K,A,S) with A = non-resource sector TFP; H assumed homogeneous of degree one so rewritten H_t = A_t h(K_t/A_t,1) = A_t h(K_t/A_t).
  - Public capital S depreciates at rate δ_s; private capital depreciates at rate δ_k and is rented at world rate r^*.
- Public investment and adjustment costs:
  - Government invests in public capital with adjustment costs g(i_t) ≥ 0; spending on public investment is i_t g(i_t).
  - Adjustment costs g(.) depend positively on the net present value of the resource windfall Ω ≡ ∑_{j=1}^{N} (1 + r^*)^{-j} Z_j (relation kept implicit in g(.)).
- Households, firms, and factor returns:
  - Households: consumption c_t = w_t + q_t where w_t wage and q_t government transfer.
  - Firms set H_K = r^* + δ_k; inverse yields private capital linear in A.
  - Wages w_t are increasing in public capital S_t and more responsive when A is higher (cross-partial > 0).
- Government objective and conditions:
  - Government chooses public investment i_t and transfers q_t to maximize discounted utility subject to debt accumulation, public capital accumulation, and transversality conditions.
  - Euler conditions yield:
    - consumption smoothing condition (optimal to smooth consumption over time if β(1+r^*)=1),
    - dynamic optimal path of public investment as a first-order difference equation,
    - steady-state condition for investment: g'(i^*) = A φ(S^*, ... , r^*) (equation (3) in text).
- Comparative statics from steady state:
  - Higher TFP A → higher steady state investment in public capital (if g''>0).
  - Higher marginal adjustment costs (e.g., due to larger windfall) → lower steady state public investment.

### Numerical experiments and calibrated insights
- Benchmark calibration (verbatim from source):
  - ܫ଴ ܫൌ క ܵ,଴ൌ0.75ൈܵ ܨ,଴ൌ5,ܰൌ10,ߜ ௌ ௌ0,05,ߜ௄ ௌ0,05,ݎ כ ௌ0,08,ܣ ௌ0,29,ߛ ൌ0,56 ݀݊ܽ ߙത ൌ0,1൅0.005ൈܸ.
- Scenario parametrizations used across experiments (preserved exactly):
  - s_0 = s̄
  - K_0 = 0.75 K̄
  - s̄ = 5
  - A = 10
  - ρ_p = 0.05
  - ρ_k = 0.05
  - r̄ = 0.08
  - ζ = 0.29
  - σ = 0.56
  - d̄_n k̄ ᾱ = 0.1 + 0.005·Ω
  - For “high TFP” scenarios increase ζ by 0.075.
  - For “high adjustment costs” scenarios increase the constant in ᾱ by 0.7.
- Representative dynamic responses and comparative insights:
  - Under a temporary resource windfall, government first accumulates debt anticipating revenues and then accumulates assets; wages relatively flat because objective is consumption smoothing (wage + transfer).
  - Compared two economies with identical steady states except for windfall size:
    - Larger resource windfall → lower level of public capital (higher adjustment costs make public investment relatively more expensive) and higher redistribution via transfers; consumption higher in larger-windfall economy though wages lower.
  - Role of TFP and administrative capacity:
    - Higher TFP reduces optimal public capital (private capital is crowded in); government raises transfers to smooth consumption, potentially leading to higher wage levels when TFP is high.
    - Weaker administrative capacity (higher adjustment costs) lowers optimal public capital, reduces private capital rental, lowers wages and consumption.
    - Interaction: better economic conditions (higher TFP) reduce the gap in optimal public investment between high and low administrative capacity countries.

### Extension: endogenous investment in administrative capacity (“investing in investing”)
- Know-how accumulation:
  - Introduce stock of administrative “know-how” z_t accumulated via investments u_t with z_{t+1} = (1−ξ) z_t + u_t (text uses ܶ and ܬ notation).
  - Adjustment cost becomes g(i_t, z_t) with ∂g/∂z < 0 (past investments in know-how reduce adjustment costs).
- Government choice and new conditions:
  - Government chooses transfers q_t, public investment i_t and administrative investment u_t subject to debt, public capital, and know-how accumulation constraints.
  - New Euler condition (equation (4) in text) relates marginal cost of investing in know-how to world interest rate.
  - From the third Euler condition, steady-state public investment i^* is an implicit function i^* = ι(z) (equation (5)); i^* increases with z provided a condition on g derivatives (text: if and only if −g_{iz} g_{zz}/g_{izz} ≥ 0 under sign assumptions).
- Dynamics of know-how and comparative statics:
  - Dynamic law for z implied by substituting i = ι(z) yields an upward-sloping difference equation (equation (6)) with curvature depending on g’s shape and substitution between i and z in g.
  - Steady-state of z solves ∆(z^*) = b (equation (7)); steady-state know-how increases with the quality of economic institutions (A) if ∆'_z ≥ 0 — sign depends on g shape but sufficient sign conditions identified (g_{zz}≥0, g_{iz}≤0, g_{ii}≤0 and g_{iz}^2 ≤ g_{zz} g_{ii}).
  - Key implication: higher initial stock of public administrative “know-how” leads to higher optimal public investment following a resource windfall; investing in administrative capacity raises the payoff to public capital investment.

### Policy implications and practical recommendations
- Aggregate messages:
  - It is not necessarily optimal for resource rich governments to increase public capital investment following temporary resource windfalls when adjustment costs rise with windfall size.
  - Larger windfalls may optimally be partly or largely redistributed via direct transfers rather than channeled into public investment when administrative capacity is limited.
  - Weak administrative capacity reduces optimal public capital responses to windfalls; higher non-resource sector TFP mitigates this effect.
  - Investment in administrative capacity is a policy lever: a higher stock of know-how increases the returns to public investment and raises optimal public investment after windfalls.
- Practical approaches to build administrative capacity and reduce adjustment costs:
  - Increase transparency in handling resource windfalls and better identify and implement projects.
  - International initiatives highlighted: Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI); Natural Resource Charter.
  - Institutional design and project appraisal: example of Chile’s National System of Investments (SNI) with disciplined cost-benefit analysis, shadow social price system and social discount rate; SNI comprises an online databank with over 300,000 entries.
  - Project Implementation Units (PIUs) recommended by World Bank for project execution, but mixed record due to lack of continuity and knowledge accumulation; recommendation to integrate PIUs into line ministries to preserve know-how.
- Research agenda:
  - Need for more empirical work documenting cross- and within-country differences in state capacity.
  - More academic work on the political economy of building state capacity is warranted.

### Figures and parametrizations (selected exact parametrizations and notes preserved)
- Figure 5 regression line: y = 0.8436x + 1.4191; R² = 0.0571.
- Figure 6 parametrization:
  - initial debt Bo = 40; non-oil GDP Y = 100; non-oil revenue T = τY = 15; oil revenue Z = 15 for 40 years; discount factor β = 0.96 implying an interest rate r = 0.04.
- Figure 7 parametrization preserved exactly:
  - s_0 / s̄ = κ
  - K_0 = 0.75 κ
  - s̄ = 5
  - A = 10
  - ρ_p = 0.05
  - ρ_k = 0.05
  - r̄ = 0.08
  - ζ = 0.29
  - σ = 0.56
  - d̄_n k̄ ᾱ = 0.1 + 0.005·Ω
  - Definitions preserved: s_0: investment in public capital at t=0; s̄: steady state investment; K_0: initial stock of public capital at t=0; K̄: steady state stock of public capital; D_0: level of sovereign debt at t=0; A: number of periods resource windfall is non zero; ρ_p: public capital depreciation rate; ρ_k: private capital depreciation rate; r̄: world interest rate; ζ: total factor productivity; σ: private capital income share; ᾱ: adjustment cost parameter; Ω: net present value of resource windfall.
- Figures 8–13 benchmark parametrization and scenario adjustments (preserved exactly):
  - Benchmark: s_0 = s̄; K_0 = 0.75 K̄; s̄ = 5; A = 10; ρ_p = 0.05; ρ_k = 0.05; r̄ = 0.08; ζ = 0.29; σ = 0.56; d̄_n k̄ ᾱ = 0.1 + 0.005·Ω.
  - Scenario adjustments:
    - For “high TFP” increase ζ by 0.075.
    - For “high adjustment costs” increase the constant in ᾱ by 0.7.
  - Comparative outcomes illustrated for public capital, wages, private consumption, and private capital under: Low TFP, low adjustment costs; Low TFP, high adjustment costs; High TFP, low adjustment costs; High TFP, High adjustment costs.

*Source: _wp12200 - Appendix 2: Parametric Specification of the Extended Model.*

### References .............................................................................................................

### _wp12200 - References

### Figures
- Figure 1. Share of Natural Capital around the World ..............................................................21
- Figure 2. Public Management Index by Sub-Groups ...............................................................22
- Figure 3. Investor Protection Index .........................................................................................23
- Figure 4. Non-Resource Sector Total Factor Productivity ......................................................24
- Figure 5. Public Investment Management Index and Non-resource Sector Total Factor ........25
- Figure 6. Resource Windfall, Consumption and Foreign Debt under the Permanent .............26
- Figure 7. Evolution of Wages, Resource Windfalls and Sovereign Debt ................................27
- Figure 8. Evolution of the Stock of Public Capital under Different Scenarios ........................28
- Figure 9. Evolution of Wages under Different Scenarios ........................................................29
- Figure 10. Evolution of Private Consumption under Different Scenarios ...............................30
- Figure 11. Evolution of the Stock of Public Capital under Different Scenarios ......................31
- Figure 12. Evolution of the Stock of Private Capital under Different Scenarios ....................32
- Figure 13. Private Consumption under Different Scenarios ....................................................33

### Appendixes
- Appendix 1: Parametric Specification .....................................................................................19

*Source: _wp12200 - References.*

### Appendix 2: Parametric Specification of the Extended Model ...............................................19

### _wp12200 - Appendix 2: Parametric Specification of the Extended Model ...............................................19

### Introduction: context and objectives
- Countries dependent on non-renewable natural resources face short-run volatility and long-run need to rebalance wealth away from exhaustible natural capital so that the non-resource sector generates enough wealth after exhaustion of natural capital.
- Empirical context cited: share of natural capital in developing countries in Africa and the Middle East “amount to over thirty percent of overall wealth” versus “below five percent” for advanced economies.
- Paper aim: foster understanding of optimal public investment decisions in countries experiencing a resource windfall using an augmented Permanent Income framework with public investment adjustment costs and government transfers.
- Key modelling assumption: adjustment costs in public investment rise with the size of the resource windfall (net present value).

### Major analytical findings (analytical model)
- Three main analytical results:
  - A larger resource windfall commands a lower level of public capital but a higher level of redistribution through transfers.
  - Weaker administrative capacity lowers the increase in optimal public capital following a resource windfall.
  - Higher total factor productivity (TFP) in the non-resource sector reduces the degree of de-investment in public capital commanded by weaker administrative capacity.
- Rationale and institutional considerations:
  - Adjustment costs capture administrative capacity and corruption/rent-seeking associated with larger windfalls (Arezki and Bruckner (2011) evidence that oil rents increase corruption for 1992–2005 panel of 30 oil-exporting countries).
  - Quality of public investment management is on average lower in resource rich countries (Kyobe et al. (2011) public investment management index cited).
  - Non-resource sector TFP is used as a measure of the quality of economic institutions faced by private firms; Africa identified as region with lowest non-resource sector TFP in the paper’s Figure 4.
  - Empirical evidence that quality of economic institutions matters for government expenditure to boost non-resource sector growth (Arezki et al. (2011), 1970–2007 panel).

### Existing theoretical frameworks and limitations
- Permanent Income (PI) framework: derives optimal (non-interest) government spending from annuitizing total wealth (recurrent income plus present value of exhaustible resource revenues); government “behaves as if it sold all of its oil immediately.”
- Augmented PI literature (Collier, Venables, van der Ploeg and Spence (2011); Venables and van der Ploeg (2011)) adds:
  - borrowing constraints for individuals;
  - interest premiums on foreign debt (decreasing with foreign debt);
  - capital scarcity (higher marginal product of capital domestically).
- Lessons from augmented PI:
  - Use windfalls to increase dividends (when smoothing with borrowing constraints);
  - Use windfalls to repay foreign debt (when facing foreign borrowing premia);
  - Favor public investment in low-income, capital-scarce countries over foreign financial asset accumulation.
- Gap identified: prior work does not explicitly model administrative capacity and the interaction between administrative capacity and economic institutions; this paper integrates those features analytically and numerically.

### Simple model of public investment: setup and mechanism
- Economy: small open economy, government can borrow/lend at world rate r^*, sovereign debt C, two sectors (resource and non-resource).
- Non-resource domestic income: H(K,A,S) with A = non-resource sector TFP; H assumed homogeneous of degree one so rewritten H_t = A_t h(K_t/A_t,1) = A_t h(K_t/A_t).
- Public capital S depreciates at rate δ_s; private capital depreciates at rate δ_k and is rented at world rate r^*.
- Government invests in public capital with adjustment costs g(i_t) ≥ 0 if it increases public capital by i_t spending i_t g(i_t).
- Adjustment costs g(.) depend positively on the net present value of the resource windfall Ω ≡ ∑_{j=1}^{N} (1 + r^*)^{-j} Z_j (relation kept implicit in g(.)).
- Households: consumption c_t = w_t + q_t where w_t wage and q_t government transfer.
- Firms set marginal productivity of private capital equal to its marginal cost: H_K = r^* + δ_k; inverse function yields private capital as a function of public capital and A, implying K* is linear in A.
- Wages w_t are increasing in public capital S_t and more responsive when A is higher (cross-partial > 0).
- Government chooses public investment i_t and transfers q_t to maximize discounted utility subject to debt accumulation, public capital accumulation, and transversality conditions.
- Euler conditions yield:
  - consumption smoothing condition (optimal to smooth consumption over time if β(1+r^*)=1),
  - dynamic optimal path of public investment as a first-order difference equation,
  - steady-state condition for investment: g'(i^*) = A φ(S^*, ... , r^*) (equation (3) in text).
- Comparative statics from steady state:
  - Higher TFP A → higher steady state investment in public capital (if g''>0).
  - Higher marginal adjustment costs (e.g., due to larger windfall) → lower steady state public investment.

### Numerical experiments and calibrated insights
- Benchmark calibration (as reported in the source):
  - ܫ଴ ܫൌ క ܵ,଴ൌ0.75ൈܵ ܨ,଴ൌ5,ܰൌ10,ߜ ௌ ௌ0,05,ߜ௄ ௌ0,05,ݎ כ ௌ0,08,ܣ ௌ0,29,ߛ ൌ0,56 ݀݊ܽ ߙത ൌ0,1൅0.005ൈܸ.
  - For “high TFP” scenarios ܣ increased by 0.075; for “high adjustment costs” scenarios the constant in തߙ increased by 0.7.
- Representative dynamic responses:
  - Under a temporary resource windfall, government first accumulates debt anticipating revenues and then accumulates assets; wages relatively flat because objective is consumption smoothing (wage + transfer).
  - Experiment comparing two economies with identical steady states except for windfall size:
    - Larger resource windfall → lower level of public capital (higher adjustment costs make public investment relatively more expensive) and higher redistribution via transfers; consumption higher in larger-windfall economy though wages lower.
  - Role of TFP and administrative capacity (from graphical results):
    - Higher TFP reduces optimal public capital (private capital is crowded in); government raises transfers to smooth consumption, potentially leading to higher wage levels when TFP is high.
    - Weaker administrative capacity (higher adjustment costs) lowers optimal public capital, reduces private capital rental, lowers wages and consumption.
    - Interaction: better economic conditions (higher TFP) reduce the gap in optimal public investment between high and low administrative capacity countries.

### Extension: endogenous investment in administrative capacity (“investing in investing”)
- Introduce stock of administrative “know-how” z_t accumulated via investments u_t with z_{t+1} = (1−ξ) z_t + u_t (text uses ܶ and ܬ notation).
- Adjustment cost becomes g(i_t, z_t) with ∂g/∂z < 0 (past investments in know-how reduce adjustment costs).
- Government now chooses transfers q_t, public investment i_t and administrative investment u_t subject to debt, public capital, and know-how accumulation constraints.
- New Euler condition (equation (4) in text) relates marginal cost of investing in know-how to world interest rate.
- From the third Euler condition, steady-state public investment i^* is an implicit function i^* = ι(z) (equation (5)); comparative statics show i^* increases with z provided a condition on g derivatives (text: if and only if −g_{iz} g_{zz}/g_{izz} ≥ 0 under sign assumptions).
- The dynamic law for z implied by substituting i = ι(z) yields an upward-sloping difference equation (equation (6)) with curvature depending on g’s shape and substitution between i and z in g.
- Steady-state of z solves ∆(z^*) = b (equation (7) in text); steady-state know-how increases with the quality of economic institutions (A) if ∆'_z ≥ 0 — the sign depends on shape of g but the paper identifies sufficient sign conditions (g_{zz}≥0, g_{iz}≤0, g_{ii}≤0 and g_{iz}^2 ≤ g_{zz} g_{ii} in text-specified notation).
- Key implication: higher initial stock of public administrative “know-how” leads to higher optimal public investment following a resource windfall; thus investing in administrative capacity can raise the payoff to public capital investment.

### Policy implications and practical recommendations
- Aggregate message:
  - It is not necessarily optimal for resource rich governments to increase public capital investment following temporary resource windfalls when adjustment costs rise with windfall size.
  - Larger windfalls may optimally be partly or largely redistributed via direct transfers rather than channeled into public investment when administrative capacity is limited.
  - Weak administrative capacity reduces optimal public capital responses to windfalls; higher non-resource sector TFP mitigates this effect.
  - Investment in administrative capacity is a policy lever: a higher stock of know-how increases the returns to public investment and raises optimal public investment after windfalls.
- Practical approaches to build administrative capacity and reduce adjustment costs:
  - Increase transparency in handling resource windfalls and better identify and implement projects.
  - International initiatives highlighted as anchors: Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI); Natural Resource Charter (builds on EITI).
  - Institutional design and project appraisal: example of Chile’s National System of Investments (SNI) with disciplined cost-benefit analysis, shadow social price system and social discount rate; SNI comprises an online databank with over 300,000 entries.
  - Project Implementation Units (PIUs) recommended by World Bank for project execution, but mixed record due to lack of continuity and knowledge accumulation; recommendation to integrate PIUs into line ministries to preserve know-how.
- Research agenda:
  - Need for more empirical work documenting cross- and within-country differences in state capacity.
  - More academic work on the political economy of building state capacity is warranted.

*Source: _wp12200 - Appendix 2: Parametric Specification of the Extended Model ...............................................19*

### REFERENCES

### _wp12200 - REFERENCES

### References (selected bibliographic entries)
- Acemoglu, Daron, Simon Johnson, and James Robinson, 2001, “The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation,” American Economic Review, Vol. XCI, pp. 1369–1401.
- Acemoglu Daron and Simon Johnson, 2005, "Unbundling Institutions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, October, Vol. 113(5), pages 949–995.
- Alfaro, Laura, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, and Vadym Volosovych, 2008, "Why doesn't capital flow from rich to poor countries? An empirical investigation," Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 90(2), pp. 347–68.
- Arezki Rabah, Kirk Hamilton and Kazim Kazimov, 2011, “Resource Windfalls, Macroeconomic Stability and Economic Growth,” IMF Working Paper 11/142 (Washington, International Monetary Fund).
- Arezki, Rabah and Markus Brueckner, “Oil rents, corruption, and state stability: Evidence from panel data regressions.” European Economic Review (forthcoming).
- Birdsall, Nancy, and Arvind Subramanian, 2004, “Saving Iraq from Its Oil,” Foreign Affairs, July–August, Vol. 83(4), pp. 77–89.
- Hall, Robert E., and Charles I. Jones, 1999, “Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker Than Others?” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 114, pp. 83–116.
- Hausmann, Ricardo, Andrew Powell, and Roberto Rigobon, 1993, “An Optimal Spending Rule Facing Oil Income Uncertainty (Venezuela),” in Engel, Eduardo and Meller, Patricio, eds. External shocks and stabilization mechanisms, Inter-American Development Bank, distributed by Johns Hopkins University Press, Washington, DC, pp. 113–71.
- Heston Alan, Robert Summers and Bettina Aten, 2006, Penn World Table Version 6.2, Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania, September.
- Keefer, Philip, and Stephen Knack, 1995, “Institutions and Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Measures,” Economics and Politics, Vol. VII, pp. 207–27.
- Kyobe Annette & Jim Brumby & Chris Papageorgiou & Zac Mills & Era Dabla-Norris, 2011, "Investing in Public Investment: An Index of Public Investment Efficiency," IMF Working Papers 11/37 (Washington, International Monetary Fund).
- Van der Ploeg, R. 2007, “Challenges and Opportunities for Resource Rich Economies,” OXCARRE WP 2008-05.
- Collier P., R. van der Ploeg, M. Spence and T. Venables, 2009, “Managing Revenues in Developing Countries,” OXCARRE WP 2009-15.
- Gelb, Alan and associates, 1988, "Oil windfalls: Blessing or curse?” Oxford University Press, for the World Bank, New York.
- Moss, T., 2011, “Oil to Cash: Fighting the Resource Curse through Cash Transfers”, Working Paper, 237, January, Center for Global Development, Washington.
- North, Douglass C., 1990, Institutions, Institutional Change, and Economic Performance (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).
- Political Risk Services, 2009, International Country Risk Guide.
- Quinn, Dennis P., and John T. Woolley, 2001, “Democracy and National Economic Performance: The Preference for Stability,” American Journal of Political Science, Vol. XLV, pp. 634–57.
- Ross, Michael L., 2012, “The Political Economy of Petroleum Wealth in Low-Income Countries: Some Policy Alternatives” in Commodity Prices and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries, ed. by Rabah Arezki, Catherine Pattillo, Marc Quintyn, and Min Zhu, International Monetary Fund.
- Van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2011, “Natural resources: curse or blessing?” Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 49(2), pp. 366–420.
- World Bank, 2006, “Where is the Wealth of Nations?,” The World Bank Group, Washington.
- World Bank, 2011a, Doing Business Database, The World Bank Group, Washington.
- World Bank, 2011b, World Development Indicators, the World Bank Group, Washington.

### Appendix 1: Parametric Specification (key functional forms and conditions)
- Utility adjustment cost specification: x(ε) = k ε^{b/(1−b)} with b∈(0,1) such that x(k)=... (symbolic form preserved as in source).
- g(h) = c h^{α} (ḣ/h)^{−α} with α∈(0,1).
- Production function: H(Y,K) = A Y^{1−φ} K^{φ} with 0<φ<1 (Cobb-Douglas, constant returns to scale).
- Marginal expressions preserved in symbolic form as in source: e.g., Q(S,Y) = ...; R(S,Y) = A S^{φ} (...)^{(φ−1)} (equations presented symbolically in original).
- Euler equation symbolic transformations preserved (including cases when α→0 and when α≠0).
- Link between windfall size and adjustment costs introduced via notation: let ζ = σ + ᾱ with ζ≥0 and ᾱ≥0.

### Appendix 2: Parametric Specification of the Extended Model (structure and dynamic conditions)
- Adjustment cost function: g(K,t) = (K) (1 − e^{−n t})^{m} where n governs convergence speed; as K_t → ∞ adjustment costs → 0. Parameter n≥0.
- Rearranged third Euler condition (symbolic): s_t = (β2·...)^{1/σ} (ψ1 + ψ2 s̄) with expression preserved in symbolic form as in source.
- Condition: D_t ≡ (ψ1/ψ2)^{...} ≥ 0 (symbolic inequality preserved).
- Second Euler condition yields: ∆(K_t) = (θ1/θ2)^{...} for all t (symbolic).
- Dynamics of know-how and investment:
  - ∆_t(K_t) = n^{1−2} (r2/κ)^{...} n (...) ≥ 0 (symbolic structure preserved).
  - When n>1 the stock of know-how decreases over time and so does investment in public capital.
  - When 0<n<1 the stock of know-how increases over time and so does investment in public capital.
- Cumulative expression preserved symbolically: ∆_1 = Σ_{t=1}^{T} (...) + Σ (...) ∆_{T} (full summation structure preserved as in source).
- Comparative statics preserved symbolically, e.g. ∂∆(·)/∂θ = Σ (...) ≥ 0 since ∂Ω/∂θ ≥ 0 for all parameters in specified ranges.

### Figures — content descriptions and exact parametrizations / notes
- Figure 1. Share of Natural Capital around the World
  - Note: Share of natural capital = natural capital / total wealth.
  - Natural capital = Crop, Pasture Land, Timber, Non Timber Forest, Protected Areas, Oil, Natural Gas, Coal, and Minerals.
  - Total wealth = net foreign assets + produced capital + natural capital + intangible capital.
  - Total wealth is calculated as the present value of future consumption sustainable, discounted at a rate of time preference of 1.5 percent, over 25 years.
- Figure 2. Public Management Index by Sub-Groups
  - Source: Kyobe, Brumby, Papageorgiou, Mills and Dabla-Norris (2011).
  - PIMI overall index = simple average of four sub-indices: (i) Strategic Guidance and Project Appraisal; (ii) Project Selection; (iii) Project Implementation; (iv) Project Evaluation and Audit.
  - Country group abbreviations preserved: LICs, MICs, SSA, MENA, LAC, ECA, EAP.
- Figure 3. Investor Protection Index
  - Source: Doing Business database (DB).
  - Sample sizes: DB 2006 (2005) includes 174 economies; DB2012 (2011) includes The Bahamas, Barhain, Brunei Darussalam, Cyprus, Kosovo, Liberia, Luxembourg, Montenegro and Qatar, for a total of 183 economies.
  - DB2006 data are adjusted for data revisions and methodology/regional classification changes.
- Figure 4. Non-Resource Sector Total Factor Productivity
  - Sources: Heston, Summers and Aten (2006), World Bank (2011b) and authors’ calculations.
  - Non-resource GDP approximated by subtracting real values of natural resources rents (World Bank, 2011b) from total GDP per worker in 2000 PPP USD (Heston, Summers and Aten, 2006).
  - Factor share set at 0.34; capital investment from Heston, Summers and Aten (2006).
- Figure 5. Public Investment Management Index and Non-resource Sector Total Factor Productivity
  - Sources: Kyobe et al. (2011), Heston et al. (2006), World Bank (2011b) and authors’ calculations.
  - Regression line: y = 0.8436x + 1.4191; R² = 0.0571 (values preserved exactly).
- Figure 6. Resource Windfall, Consumption and Foreign Debt under the Permanent Income Framework
  - Parametrization: initial debt Bo = 40; non-oil GDP Y = 100; non-oil revenue T = τY = 15; oil revenue Z = 15 for 40 years; discount factor β = 0.96 implying an interest rate r = 0.04.
  - Note: “Spending” describes optimal public spending; “Asset” describes evolution of financial asset under optimal path.
- Figure 7. Evolution of Wages, Resource Windfalls and Sovereign Debt
  - Parametrization preserved exactly:
    - s_0 / s̄ = κ
    - K_0 = 0.75 κ
    - s̄ = 5
    - A = 10
    - ρ_p = 0.05
    - ρ_k = 0.05
    - r̄ = 0.08
    - ζ = 0.29
    - σ = 0.56
    - d̄_n k̄ ᾱ = 0.1 + 0.005·Ω (symbolic preserved as in source)
  - Definitions preserved: s_0: investment in public capital at t=0; s̄: steady state investment; K_0: initial stock of public capital at t=0; K̄: steady state stock of public capital; D_0: level of sovereign debt at t=0; A: number of periods resource windfall is non zero; ρ_p: public capital depreciation rate; ρ_k: private capital depreciation rate; r̄: world interest rate; ζ: total factor productivity; σ: private capital income share; ᾱ: adjustment cost parameter; Ω: net present value of resource windfall.
- Figures 8–13. Comparative scenario experiments (public capital, wages, private consumption, private capital)
  - Benchmark parametrization (preserved exactly) used across experiments:
    - s_0 = s̄
    - K_0 = 0.75 K̄
    - s̄ = 5
    - A = 10
    - ρ_p = 0.05
    - ρ_k = 0.05
    - r̄ = 0.08
    - ζ = 0.29
    - σ = 0.56
    - d̄_n k̄ ᾱ = 0.1 + 0.005·Ω
  - Scenario adjustments explicitly preserved:
    - For “high TFP” scenarios increase ζ by 0.075.
    - For “high adjustment costs” scenarios increase the constant in ᾱ by 0.7.
  - Comparative outcomes illustrated for:
    - Figure 8: Evolution of the Stock of Public Capital — two economies: High windfall vs Low windfall.
    - Figure 9: Evolution of Wages — High windfall vs Low windfall.
    - Figure 10: Evolution of Private Consumption — High windfall vs Low windfall.
    - Figure 11: Evolution of the Stock of Public Capital under four scenarios: Low TFP, low adjustment costs; Low TFP, high adjustment costs; High TFP, low adjustment costs; High TFP, High adjustment costs.
    - Figure 12: Evolution of the Stock of Private Capital under the same four scenarios.
    - Figure 13: Private Consumption under the same four scenarios.

*Source: _wp12200 - REFERENCES (PDF)._

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/_wp12200.pdf_
