## 8. Contributions to the Recent Slowdown

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### Introduction and research questions
- Scope: private firm-level investment in Emerging Market economies (EMs).
- Data: firm-level data for about 16,000 listed firms in 38 EMs over the period 1990–2013.
- Questions:
  - What explains the recent weakness in investment in EMs after the 2011 peak?
  - Role of external factors: commodity prices, capital inflows?
  - Is the slowdown generalized or region-specific?
  - Can standard determinants (Tobin’s Q, cash flow, leverage, debt flows, cost of debt) account for the slowdown?
  - Policy implications for restoring private investment and potential output growth?

### Stylized facts: recent investment dynamics in EMs
- Broad pattern (2001–14):
  - Strong investment growth in 2003–11 except 2009, peak in 2011, followed by gradual slowdown through 2014.
  - Investment moderated from cyclical highs but "remains broadly at pre-crisis levels" for most EMs.
- Regional variation:
  - Emerging Europe: growth stalled since 2012.
  - CIS economies: investment growth turned negative in 2014.
  - Emerging Asia (excl. China): most resilient; investment-to-GDP ratios remained above pre-crisis levels though flattened in last two years.
  - LAC and Europe: investment-to-GDP ratios declined from peaks but remain above the average of the last three decades in many cases.
- Correlations:
  - Private investment highly correlated with country-specific commodity export prices:
    - LAC and CIS correlation coefficient 0.84.
    - Emerging Europe correlation coefficient 0.82.
    - Emerging Asia (excl. China) correlation coefficient 0.36.
  - Private investment correlated with capital inflows (financial account balance, percent of GDP).
- Contextual drivers:
  - Downward revisions to potential growth and lower commodity export prices reinforced firms’ sense of "leaner times" and likely contributed to reduced capital spending.

### Econometric approach and variables
- Model: panel regression of investment with firm and time (trend) fixed effects; baseline is an augmented Tobin’s Q framework.
- Firm-level determinants included:
  - Tobin’s Q (average Q, price-to-book)
  - Cash flow (net profits from operating activities)
  - Leverage (total debt/total assets)
  - Change in total debt (DebtΔ)
  - Cost of funds (interest expense ratio)
  - Lagged capital stock K
- Country-level determinants included:
  - Commodity export price growth (country-specific gross commodity export price indices)
  - Net capital inflows (financial account balance, percent of GDP)
  - Uncertainty (average monthly volatility of stock market returns)
- Estimation details:
  - Annual data, 1990–2013.
  - Observations with inconsistent data dropped; bottom and top 5 percent of each variable by country excluded.
  - Clustered robust standard errors by country.
  - Extensions: interaction of capital inflows with cash flow; RECENT dummy = 1 for post-2011 and interactions with main determinants.
- Sample coverage note: firm-level sample represents about 12 percent of national-accounts aggregate private investment on average, with average correlation over 30 percent.

### Key empirical findings — baseline results
- Signs and significance (firm-level):
  - Tobin’s Q: positive and statistically significant.
  - Cash flow: positive and statistically significant.
  - Leverage (lagged): negative and statistically significant.
  - Change in debt (new debt): positive and statistically significant.
  - Cost of debt: negative but often statistically weak (insignificant once macro variables included).
- Macroeconomic determinants:
  - Commodity export price growth (country-specific): positive and strongly statistically significant.
  - Net capital inflows: positive and strongly statistically significant.
  - Uncertainty (stock market volatility): not significant once Tobin’s Q is included.
- Economic magnitudes (one-standard-deviation effects on investment-to-capital ratio, in percentage points):
  - Tobin’s Q: 2.9
  - Cash flow: 5.3
  - Leverage: 3.3
  - Change in debt: 1.9
  - Commodity export growth: 0.63
  - Capital inflows: 1.4
- Baseline sample statistics:
  - Investment-to-capital ratio mean: 0.25
  - Investment-to-capital ratio standard deviation: 1.46

### Extensions: financial-constraint relaxation and the recent period
- Capital inflows relax financing constraints:
  - Interaction (cash flow x net capital inflows): negative and significant → larger capital inflows reduce sensitivity of investment to cash flow.
  - Effect strongest for non-tradable sector firms.
- RECENT dummy (post-2011):
  - RECENT dummy itself statistically insignificant in full sample → firms’ investment post-2011 not abnormally weak beyond explained determinants.
  - RECENT x determinant interactions generally insignificant, except:
    - RECENT x leverage: negative and statistically significant in some specifications — sensitivity of investment to leverage increased after 2011.
- Regional heterogeneity summary:
  - LAC: financing constraints tightened post-2011; commodity prices–investment link strengthened.
  - Asia: commodity prices–investment link weakened; leverage effect became more negative.
  - CIS and emerging Europe: commodity price declines strongly contributed to investment weakness.

### Firms’ characteristics and heterogeneity
- Firm size:
  - Larger firms (assets or gross income) have higher investment ratios on average.
  - Larger firms face weaker financing constraints: assets x cash flow interaction negative and significant.
- Financial integration:
  - Higher share of foreign asset holdings → higher investment and weaker sensitivity to cash flow (foreign assets x cash flow negative and significant).
- Sectoral differences:
  - Relaxation of financing constraints via capital inflows stronger for non-tradable sector firms (Non-tradables x net capital inflows x cash flow negative and significant).

### Robustness checks
- Arellano-Bond GMM: baseline findings broadly unchanged; lagged investment significant (ICR(t-1) coefficient negative and large in GMM).
- Using cash stock instead of cash flow: main results unchanged; cash stock positive and significant.
- Additional controls (real GDP growth, commodity import prices, lagged inflows and change in debt): results robust; aggregate GDP growth statistically insignificant with other regressors.
- Results robust to exclusion of large-firm countries (e.g., China, Korea, Taiwan) and to inclusion of country fixed effects or country-time dummies.

### Explaining the recent investment weakening (post-2011)
- Method: for each region, compute contribution of each determinant to the post-2011 change in investment-to-capital ratio by multiplying the change in the determinant since 2011 by its estimated marginal effect (including RECENT interactions if significant).
- Main contributors to the post-2011 moderation in investment:
  - Lower commodity export prices: largest contributor, particularly for LAC and CIS.
  - Lower expected profitability (Tobin’s Q): important contributor, reflecting downward revisions to potential growth and weaker external demand.
  - Moderation in capital inflows: contributed to investment weakening, particularly in emerging Asia where inflows moderated since 2012.
  - Increased leverage: significant role in some regions (for example, Asia).
- Overall conclusion:
  - The recent investment slowdown can largely be explained by changes in the model’s main determinants (commodity prices, Tobin’s Q, capital inflows, leverage), rather than by an unexplained abnormal weakness in firms’ investment behavior after 2011.

### Policy-relevant implications
- External factors matter materially for private investment in EMs:
  - Commodity price shocks and cross-border capital flow fluctuations substantially affect firms’ investment.
- Policies to influence investment via financing conditions and commodity exposure:
  - Support stable capital inflows or alternative financing sources to relax financing constraints, especially for non-tradable sector firms.
  - Deepen domestic financial systems and strengthen capital market development.
  - Promote access to finance for smaller firms and small and mid-sized firms, subject to sufficient safeguards for financial stability.
  - Strengthen financial infrastructure and legal frameworks to enhance access to funding.
- Structural policies:
  - Implement country-specific structural reforms to boost productivity and unlock private investment and output growth.
  - Priority areas in many EMs: improve infrastructure and human capital, strengthen the business climate, and foster competition.

### V. Concluding remarks — key synthesis
- Sample and scope:
  - Firm-level data for about 16,000 firms and country-specific macroeconomic variables for 38 EMs over 1990–2013.
- Broad pattern:
  - Private investment growth in EMs declined after peaking in mid-2011; the decline is a slowdown from a boom rather than a slump.
  - Investment-to-output ratios remain close to or above historical averages for most EMs despite moderation.
- Outlook risks:
  - Commodity prices are expected to remain weak.
  - Capital inflows to EMs are likely to moderate further.
  - External financial conditions set to become tighter (including impact of U.S. monetary policy normalization).
  - Recent declines in potential growth estimates for most EMs likely drag on business investment.

### Main empirical findings and quantitative highlights
- Expected future profitability:
  - Q (Tobin’s Q): positive coefficients around 0.0177 to 0.0293; example estimates: 0.0179***, 0.0177***, 0.0196***, 0.0293***.
- Financing and balance-sheet effects:
  - Cash flow: small positive coefficients; examples: 0.0126**, 0.0125***.
  - Leverage (t-1): negative coefficients; examples: -0.0337**, -0.0326***, -0.0160*.
  - Change in debt: small positive coefficients; examples: 0.00104, 0.00265*, 0.00821***.
- International and commodity factors:
  - Net capital inflows: positive coefficients; examples: 0.00187, 0.00263**, 0.00291*.
  - Commodity export price (t-1): positive small coefficients; examples: 0.000478**, 0.000469***, 0.000498***.
- “Recent” period indicator and interactions:
  - Evidence of heterogeneity in recent-slowdown drivers across regions (e.g., Recent coefficient -0.0453** in some regressions).
- Regression sample sizes (selected):
  - Observations reported across regional columns: 5,532; 53,436; 7,740; 5,476.
  - Number of firms reported across regional columns: 8,849; 9,534; 1,897; 1,129.
  - Number of countries reported in tables: 71; 0136 (reported as 71 0136).
- Inference:
  - Robust standard errors (clustered by country), controls for time effects and firm-level fixed effects. Significance notation: *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.

### Drivers of the 2011–13 investment slowdown — regional summary
- LAC and CIS:
  - Sharp decline in commodity prices was a key factor.
- Emerging Asia:
  - Increased corporate leverage, lower cash flows, and moderation in capital inflows were significant drivers.
- Global/common factors:
  - Lower expected profitability (reflecting downward revisions to potential growth) contributed importantly across EMs.

### Appendix — data inventory (selected)
- Table A.1. Firm-Level Panel Regressions: List of Countries (Country — Number of firms) (selected entries):
  - ARGENTINA 1,073
  - BRAZIL 3,100
  - BULGARIA 1,164
  - CHILE 3,103
  - CHINA 22,799
  - COLOMBIA 753
  - CROATIA 545
  - CZECH REPUBLIC 511
  - EGYPT 1,227
  - HUNGARY 563
  - INDIA 17,480
  - INDONESIA 4,355
  - ISRAEL 3,618
  - JORDAN 1,538
  - KAZAKHSTAN 223
  - KOREA (SOUTH) 17,245
  - LITHUANIA 225
  - MALAYSIA 12,814
  - MEXICO 2,096
  - MOROCCO 538
  - PAKISTAN 2,342
  - PERU 1,436
  - PHILIPPINES 2,708
  - POLAND 3,602
  - ROMANIA 770
  - RUSSIAN FEDERATION 4,998
  - SERBIA 534
  - SINGAPORE 7,982
  - SLOVAKIA 237
  - SLOVENIA 361
  - SOUTH AFRICA 5,381
  - SRI LANKA 1,551
  - TAIWAN 17,997
  - THAILAND 7,065
  - TURKEY 2,453
  - UKRAINE 375
  - VENEZUELA 378
  - VIETNAM 3,515
- Table notes:
  - Source: Authors' calculations.
  - Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.
  - Robust standard errors (clustered by country), and controlling for time effects and firm-level fixed effects.

*Source: Authors' calculations.*

### References .............................................................................................................

### _wp1577 - References .............................................................................................................

### Tables
- 1. Summary Statistics...............................................................................................................13
- 2. Baseline Results ...................................................................................................................15
- 3. Financial Constraint Relaxation and Recent Slowdown ......................................................16
- 4. Regional Decomposition ......................................................................................................18
- 5. Firms’ Characteristics ..........................................................................................................19
- 6. Robustness: Arellano-Bond GMM specifcation ..................................................................20
- 7. Robustness: Using Cash Stock.............................................................................................21

### Figures
- 1. Real Private Investment Growth, 2001–14 ............................................................................6
- 2. Real Private Investment, 1990–2014 .....................................................................................7
- 3. Real Private Investment, 1980–2014 .....................................................................................8
- 4. Real Private Investment and Commodity Export Price Growth, 2004–14 ............................8
- 5. Selected Emerging and Developing Economies: WEO Real GDP Growth Projections .......9
- 6. Real Private Investment and Net Capital Inflows, 2004–14 ..................................................9
- 7. Distribution of Selected Variables .......................................................................................14

*Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/_wp1577.pdf*

### 8. Contributions to the Recent Slowdown ...............................................................................2

### 8. Contributions to the Recent Slowdown

### Introduction and research questions
- Scope: private firm-level investment in Emerging Market economies (EMs).
- Data: firm-level data for about 16,000 listed firms in 38 EMs over the period 1990–2013.
- Questions posed:
  - What explains the recent weakness in investment in EMs after the 2011 peak?
  - What is the role of external factors (commodity prices, capital inflows)?
  - Is the slowdown generalized across EMs or region-specific?
  - Can standard determinants (Tobin’s Q, cash flow, leverage, debt flows, cost of debt) account for the slowdown?
  - What are the policy implications for restoring private investment and potential output growth?

### Stylized facts: recent investment dynamics in EMs
- Broad pattern (2001–14): strong investment growth in 2003–11 except 2009, peak in 2011, followed by gradual slowdown through 2014.
- Regional variation:
  - Emerging Europe: growth stalled since 2012.
  - CIS economies: investment growth turned negative in 2014.
  - Emerging Asia (excl. China): most resilient; investment-to-GDP ratios remained above pre-crisis levels though flattened in last two years.
  - LAC and Europe: investment-to-GDP ratios declined from peaks but remain above the average of the last three decades in many cases.
- Investment levels:
  - Investment moderated from cyclical highs but "remains broadly at pre-crisis levels" for most EMs.
- Correlations:
  - Private investment highly correlated with country-specific commodity export prices, especially in LAC and CIS (correlation coefficient 0.84), and strong in emerging Europe (0.82). For emerging Asia (excl. China) correlation is 0.36.
- Investment and capital inflows:
  - Private investment in EMs has been correlated with capital inflows (financial account balance, in percent of GDP).
- Downward revisions to potential growth and lower commodity export prices reinforced firms’ sense of "leaner times" and likely contributed to reduced capital spending.

### Econometric approach and variables
- Model: panel regression of investment with firm and time (trend) fixed effects; baseline is an augmented Tobin’s Q framework.
- Baseline (conceptual) determinants included:
  - Firm-level: Tobin’s Q (average Q, price-to-book), cash flow (net profits from operating activities), leverage (total debt/total assets), change in total debt (DebtΔ), cost of funds (interest expense ratio), lagged capital stock K.
  - Country-level: commodity export price growth (country-specific gross commodity export price indices), net capital inflows (financial account balance, percent of GDP), uncertainty (average monthly volatility of stock market returns).
- Estimation details:
  - Annual data, 1990–2013.
  - Observations with inconsistent data dropped; bottom and top 5 percent of each variable by country excluded.
  - Clustered robust standard errors by country.
  - Extensions: interaction of capital inflows with cash flow to test relaxation of financing constraints; RECENT dummy = 1 for post-2011 period and interactions with main determinants to test changed sensitivities.
- Sample coverage note: firm-level sample represents about 12 percent of national-accounts aggregate private investment on average, with average correlation over 30 percent.

### Key empirical findings — baseline results
- Firm-level determinants (signs and significance):
  - Tobin’s Q: positive and statistically significant.
  - Cash flow: positive and statistically significant, indicating financial constraints (dependence on internal funds).
  - Leverage (lagged): negative and statistically significant.
  - Change in debt (new debt): positive and statistically significant.
  - Cost of debt: negative but often statistically weak (insignificant once macro variables included).
- Macroeconomic determinants:
  - Commodity export price growth (country-specific): positive and strongly statistically significant.
  - Net capital inflows: positive and strongly statistically significant.
  - Uncertainty (stock market volatility): not a significant determinant once Tobin’s Q is included.
- Economic magnitudes (one-standard-deviation effects on investment-to-capital ratio, in percentage points):
  - Tobin’s Q: 2.9
  - Cash flow: 5.3
  - Leverage: 3.3
  - Change in debt: 1.9
  - Commodity export growth: 0.63
  - Capital inflows: 1.4
- Baseline sample statistics:
  - Investment-to-capital ratio mean: 0.25
  - Investment-to-capital ratio standard deviation: 1.46

### Extensions: financial-constraint relaxation and the recent period
- Capital inflows relax financing constraints:
  - Interaction term (cash flow x net capital inflows) is negative and significant → larger capital inflows reduce sensitivity of investment to cash flow, implying external financing eases dependence on internal funds.
  - Effect especially strong for non-tradable sector firms.
- RECENT dummy (post-2011):
  - The RECENT dummy itself is statistically insignificant in the full sample, implying firms’ investment in post-2011 years was not abnormally weak beyond what is explained by changes in its determinants.
  - Interaction terms RECENT x determinant are generally insignificant, implying the marginal effects of determinants have been stable post-2011, with one exception:
    - RECENT x leverage: negative and statistically significant in some specifications — sensitivity of investment to leverage has increased after 2011.
- Regional heterogeneity (summary):
  - LAC: financing constraints tightened post-2011; relationship between commodity prices and investment became stronger.
  - Asia: relationship between commodity prices and investment weakened; leverage effect became more negative in emerging Asia.
  - CIS and emerging Europe: commodity price declines contributed strongly to investment weakness.

### Firms’ characteristics and heterogeneity
- Firm size:
  - Larger firms (assets or gross income) have higher investment ratios on average.
  - Larger firms face weaker financing constraints: assets x cash flow interaction negative and significant.
- Financial integration:
  - Higher share of foreign asset holdings → higher investment and weaker sensitivity of investment to cash flow (foreign assets x cash flow negative and significant).
- Sectoral differences:
  - Relaxation of financing constraints via capital inflows is stronger for non-tradable sector firms (triple interaction Non-tradables x net capital inflows x cash flow negative and significant).

### Robustness checks
- Arellano-Bond (difference-in-difference GMM) with lagged I/K included: baseline findings broadly unchanged; lagged investment significant (ICR(t-1) coefficient negative and large in GMM).
- Using cash stock instead of cash flow: main results unchanged; cash stock positive and significant as internal funds measure.
- Additional controls (real GDP growth, commodity import prices, lagging inflows and change in debt): results robust (aggregate GDP growth statistically insignificant in presence of other regressors).
- Results robust to exclusion of large-firm countries (e.g., China, Korea, Taiwan) and to inclusion of country fixed effects or country-time dummies.

### Explaining the recent investment weakening (post-2011)
- Method: for each region, compute contribution of each determinant to the post-2011 change in investment-to-capital ratio by multiplying the change in the determinant since 2011 by its estimated marginal effect (including RECENT interactions if significant).
- Main contributors to the post-2011 moderation in investment:
  - Lower commodity export prices: largest contributor, particularly for LAC and CIS (reflecting large share of commodity sectors in private investment).
  - Lower expected profitability (Tobin’s Q): important contributor, reflecting downward revisions to potential growth and weaker external demand.
  - Moderation in capital inflows and increased leverage also played notable roles:
    - Moderation in capital inflows: contributed to investment weakening, particularly in emerging Asia where inflows moderated since 2012.
    - Increased leverage: played a significant role in some regions (for example, Asia).
- Overall conclusion on recent slowdown:
  - The recent investment slowdown can largely be explained by changes in the model’s main determinants (commodity prices, Tobin’s Q, capital inflows, leverage), rather than by an unexplained abnormal weakness in firms’ investment behavior after 2011.

### Policy-relevant implications (as presented in the analysis)
- External factors matter materially for private investment in EMs:
  - Commodity price shocks and cross-border capital flow fluctuations have significant effects on firms’ investment.
- Policies that affect external financing conditions or mitigate commodity price exposure can influence firms’ financing constraints and investment:
  - Policies that support stable capital inflows or alternative financing sources can help relax financing constraints, especially for non-tradable sector firms.
- Structural policies to support potential growth and firm profitability (affecting Tobin’s Q) are important for sustaining investment and capital accumulation.

*Source: Authors' calculations.*

### 2011. See Chapter 3 of the April 2015 World Economic Outlook.

### 2011. See Chapter 3 of the April 2015 World Economic Outlook.

### V. Concluding remarks — key synthesis
- Sample and scope:
  - Firm-level data for about 16,000 firms and country-specific macroeconomic variables for 38 EMs over the period 1990–2013.
- Broad pattern:
  - Private investment growth in EMs declined after peaking in mid-2011; the decline is a slowdown from a boom rather than a slump.
  - Investment-to-output ratios remain close to or above historical averages for most EMs despite moderation.
- Outlook risks:
  - Commodity prices are expected to remain weak.
  - Capital inflows to EMs are likely to moderate further.
  - External financial conditions are set to become tighter (including impact of U.S. monetary policy normalization).
  - Recent declines in potential growth estimates for most EMs likely drag on business investment.

### Main empirical findings (determinants of firm investment)
- Expected future profitability:
  - Investment increases with higher Tobin’s Q (Q positive and significant across regressions).
- Financing and balance-sheet effects:
  - Cash flow: positive and robust effect on capital spending; sensitivity to internal funds indicates borrowing constraints in EM firms.
  - Leverage: higher leverage is associated with lower investment (negative effect), particularly pronounced in emerging Asia.
  - Change in debt (debt flows): positively associated with capital expenditure.
- International and commodity factors:
  - Net capital inflows: positive influence on business investment; capital inflows relax firms’ financial constraints.
  - Commodity export price changes: investment is positively associated with changes in country-specific commodity export prices, particularly in LAC and CIS.
- Interaction effects:
  - Capital inflows weaken the sensitivity of investment to cash flow (i.e., relax financing constraints).
  - The relaxation of financing constraints from capital inflows is stronger for firms in the non-tradable sector.
- Firm heterogeneity:
  - Larger firms (by assets or revenues) and firms more integrated with international financial markets face weaker financial constraints, on average.

### Quantitative highlights from regional regressions (selected coefficient signs and significance)
- Q (Tobin’s Q): positive coefficients around 0.0177 to 0.0293, with significance levels up to *** (p<0.01).
  - Examples: 0.0179***, 0.0177***, 0.0196***, 0.0293***.
- Cash flow: small positive coefficients; significant in some regional regressions.
  - Examples: 0.0126**, 0.0125***.
- Leverage (t-1): negative coefficients, significant in several regions.
  - Examples: -0.0337**, -0.0326***, -0.0160*.
- Change in debt: small positive coefficients; significance varies.
  - Examples: 0.00104, 0.00265*, 0.00821***.
- Net capital inflows: positive coefficients, significance up to **.
  - Examples: 0.00187, 0.00263**, 0.00291*.
- Commodity export price (t-1): positive small coefficients and significance in many specifications.
  - Examples: 0.000478**, 0.000469***, 0.000498***.
- “Recent” period indicator and interaction terms: evidence of heterogeneity in recent-slowdown drivers across regions (e.g., Recent coefficient -0.0453** in some regressions).

- Regression sample sizes and clusters (selected):
  - Observations: 5,532; 53,436; 7,740; 5,476 (reported across regional columns).
  - Number of firms: 8,849; 9,534; 1,897; 1,129 (reported across regional columns).
  - Number of countries: 71; 0136 (reported as 71 0136 in tables).
- Note on inference: Robust standard errors (clustered by country), controls for time effects and firm-level fixed effects. Significance notation: *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.

### Drivers of the 2011–13 investment slowdown — relative contributions and regional heterogeneity
- LAC and CIS:
  - Sharp decline in commodity prices was a key factor (large net commodity exporters present in these regions).
- Emerging Asia:
  - Increased corporate leverage, lower cash flows, and moderation in capital inflows were significant drivers.
- Global/common factors:
  - Lower expected profitability (reflecting downward revisions to potential growth) contributed importantly across EMs.
- Overall conclusion:
  - The recent investment weakening can be largely explained by the observed evolution of these determinants, with heterogeneity across regions in the relative importance of each factor.

### Policy implications and recommendations
- Financial sector and access to finance:
  - Deepen domestic financial systems and strengthen capital market development.
  - Promote access to finance for smaller firms and small and mid-sized firms, subject to sufficient safeguards for financial stability.
  - Strengthen financial infrastructure and legal frameworks to enhance access to funding.
- Structural reforms:
  - Implement country-specific structural reforms to boost productivity and unlock private investment and output growth.
  - Priority areas in many EMs: improve infrastructure and human capital, strengthen the business climate, and foster competition.

### Appendix — data inventory (selected)
- Table A.1. Firm-Level Panel Regressions: List of Countries (Country — Number of firms)
  - ARGENTINA 1,073
  - BRAZIL 3,100
  - BULGARIA 1,164
  - CHILE 3,103
  - CHINA 22,799
  - COLOMBIA 753
  - CROATIA 545
  - CZECH REPUBLIC 511
  - EGYPT 1,227
  - HUNGARY 563
  - INDIA 17,480
  - INDONESIA 4,355
  - ISRAEL 3,618
  - JORDAN 1,538
  - KAZAKHSTAN 223
  - KOREA (SOUTH) 17,245
  - LITHUANIA 225
  - MALAYSIA 12,814
  - MEXICO 2,096
  - MOROCCO 538
  - PAKISTAN 2,342
  - PERU 1,436
  - PHILIPPINES 2,708
  - POLAND 3,602
  - ROMANIA 770
  - RUSSIAN FEDERATION 4,998
  - SERBIA 534
  - SINGAPORE 7,982
  - SLOVAKIA 237
  - SLOVENIA 361
  - SOUTH AFRICA 5,381
  - SRI LANKA 1,551
  - TAIWAN 17,997
  - THAILAND 7,065
  - TURKEY 2,453
  - UKRAINE 375
  - VENEZUELA 378
  - VIETNAM 3,515

- Table notes:
  - Source: Authors' calculations.
  - Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.
  - Robust standard errors (clustered by country), and controlling for time effects and firm-level fixed effects.

*Source: Authors' calculations, Chapter 3 of the April 2015 World Economic Outlook (see provided content).*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/_wp1577.pdf_