## 1. OLS Panel Regression Results on Profit Growth, 2000–2012

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### Introduction: recent performance of Colombia’s manufacturing sector
- Real GDP grew, on average, by 4 percent between 2008 and 2013.
- Manufacturing sector output grew by 0.2 percent on average over the same period.
- The share of manufacturing in percent of real GDP declined from 14 percent at the end of 2007 to 11 percent in 2013.
- The manufacturing sector contracted by four percent during the global financial turmoil (2008–09), even though overall GDP growth remained positive.
- The manufacturing sector contracted fairly sharply between the second half of 2012 and the first half of 2013, while overall economic activity grew at the average pace of 3 percent (y/y).

### Hypothesized drivers of weak manufacturing performance
- Overvaluation of the real effective exchange rate (REER) identified as the main policy concern potentially hampering competitiveness.
- Alternative explanations include:
  - Weak external demand for Colombia’s manufacturing products.
  - Structural changes induced by international trade (trade disruption with Venezuela; increased imports from China and Mexico).
  - Pre-existing competitiveness issues (high labor costs and poor infrastructure) amplifying negative effects of real appreciation and structural change.
- Recent technological changes may have affected specific industries; identification of these effects is beyond the scope of the paper.

### Data and methodology for aggregate analysis
- Trade and macro data sources:
  - United Nation’s COMTRADE database for trade-partner weights (exports and imports).
  - WEO database for nominal exchange rates and consumer price indices for Colombia and trading partners.
  - Export-weighted real GDP growth of trading partners used to measure external demand.
- Trade-partner weights calculated using the average for 2007, 2009, and 2012.
- For manufacturing-specific REER, included SITC industry codes: 0, 5, 6, and 7.

### Real effective exchange rate and external demand — findings
- Foreign direct investment inflows averaged close to 4 percent of GDP between 2006 and 2012, allowing a balance of payments surplus and reserve accumulation.
- Colombia’s REER, especially against the U.S. dollar, appreciated significantly, by over 30 percent between 2006 and 2012.
- Bilateral appreciation since 2008 against most major trading partners was fairly modest, with the notable exception of Mexico.
- Export-weighted REER for manufacturing goods remained relatively stable since 2008 (the 2009 spike was caused by Venezuela).
- Import-weighted REER for manufactured goods exhibits slightly sharper appreciation since 2008 due to the larger weight of the United States.
- External demand (export-weighted real GDP growth of trading partners):
  - Declined sharply in 2009 as a result of the global financial crisis.
  - Recovered to 4 percent in 2011 and 2012.
  - Average growth between 2004 and 2008 was 6 percent (weak growth in 2002 and 2003 was caused by Venezuela).
  - Fell to 2 percent in 2013.
- Visual inspection suggests the 2009 sharp drop in manufacturing output may be partly explained by the fall in external demand; REER patterns do not visually reveal a clear driving role for REER in the post-2008 weakness.

### Structural changes in trade — findings
- Manufacturing exports shifted toward domestic consumption:
  - Manufacturing exports in percent of manufacturing GDP declined from around 40 percent in 2008 to 26 percent in 2013.
  - Manufacturing exports as percent of total exports declined from close to 40 percent in the mid-2000s to roughly 20 percent in 2013.
- Trade disruption with Venezuela:
  - Manufacturing exports (excluding food, beverages and tobacco products) to Venezuela declined from US$4 billion (35 percent of the total) in 2007 to US$1 billion (13 percent of the total) in 2012.
  - Industries particularly affected include electrical machinery, road vehicles, textiles, and medical and pharmaceutical products.
  - Part of the decline to Venezuela offset by increased exports to Brazil, Ecuador, and Peru.
  - Exports to the United States declined from US$1.7 billion in 2007 to US$1 billion in 2012.
- Manufacturing imports increased significantly since 2009:
  - Imports from China more than doubled since 2007, rising from US$3 billion (8 percent of the total) in 2007 to roughly US$8 billion (18 percent of the total) in 2012.
  - Increased imports from China concentrated in machinery and transport equipment, and include chemical products, rubber and plastic products, metallic and non-metallic mineral products, and textiles.
  - Imports from Mexico increased from US$3 billion in 2007 to US$5 billion in 2012.
- Increased manufacturing imports (excluding food, beverages and tobacco products) from the U.S. increased from $6.7 billion in 2007 to $8.2 billion in 2012.
- Increased imports from China appear unrelated to real exchange rate dynamics; surge did not accompany steady real appreciation of the Colombian peso against the Chinese currency.
- Increased imports from Mexico seem partly driven by real exchange rate appreciation: bilateral REER vis-à-vis the Mexican peso has steadily appreciated since 2008, except in 2013. Renewal of the Free Trade Agreement with Mexico in 2011 may also have contributed.

### International comparison
- Many countries in the region—including Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela—experienced a reduction in the share of the manufacturing sector in recent years.
- Some Asian countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines) also experienced declines in manufacturing share, though Asian countries generally have a higher share of manufacturing compared with Latin American countries.
- Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam experienced very strong growth in the manufacturing sector relative to real GDP.

### Firm-level analysis — theoretical model (short-run)
- Production uses a single input: intermediate inputs.
- Firms sell fraction s of output domestically at price pd and export remainder at world price pw and nominal exchange rate e.
- Real depreciation affects profits through:
  - import substitution (higher profits as imported substitutes become more expensive in domestic currency);
  - higher export revenues (increased competitiveness);
  - higher costs (imported intermediate inputs become more expensive).
- For firms producing only for the domestic market (s = 1), net effect of real depreciation can be negative if pass-through of REER to domestic price is low.

### Firm-level data and empirical specification
- Firm-level dataset: annual unbalanced panel from 2000 to 2012 for about 4,850 manufacturing firms collected by Colombia’s Superintendence of Corporations.
- Database excludes most publicly listed companies and covers firms above an asset threshold determined by the Superintendence (assets exceeds 500 times the minimum monthly legal wage).
- Minimum monthly legal wage was 589,500 pesos (US$315) in 2013.
- Industry-level REER and external demand measures constructed at ISIC 2-digit level; export weights calculated using COMTRADE (SITC to ISIC mapping).
- Central bank’s policy rate (overnight lending rate) used for Colombia’s interest rate.
- Main regression dependent variable: real growth of profits (operational profits deflated by manufacturing PPI).
- Key regressors: export-weighted REER growth (ISIC 2-digit), export-weighted real GDP growth of trading partners, Colombia real GDP growth, Colombia interest rate, structural trade dummies (Venezuela and China).
- Observations with very large real growth of profits (300 percent in absolute terms) excluded; observations with very large real growth of external revenues (above 1000 percent) excluded where applicable.
- Quantile regressions run as robustness check; results generally similar.

### Firm-level empirical results — headline findings and key coefficients
- REER (export-weighted) coefficient is negative and statistically significant: real profits grew by 0.3 percent on average in response to the appreciation of REER by one percent (stated as: a one percent REER appreciation -> profit growth +0.3 percent).
  - Table 1: REER Growth (export-weighted) coefficient = -0.339*** (SE 0.0597) in regression (1).
- Domestic demand effect is positive and significant:
  - Table 1: Domestic Demand Growth coefficient = 2.731*** (SE 0.442).
- External demand effects generally positive but not statistically significant in many specifications.
- Domestic interest rate effect surprisingly positive and significant.
- Structural trade dummies:
  - Dummy (Venezuela): profit growth after 2008 was on average 12 percent lower for industries affected by trade disruption with Venezuela.
    - Table 1: Dummy (Venezuela) = -12.45*** (SE 2.401) in regression (1).
  - Dummy (China): profit growth after 2008 was on average 8 percent lower for industries facing increased competition from Chinese imports.
    - Table 1: Dummy (China) = -6.760*** (SE 1.902) in regression (1).
- Import-weighted REER included in regressions produced a negative and significant coefficient:
  - Table 1 (3): REER Growth (import-weighted) = -0.436*** (SE 0.0811).
- External revenues respond positively to REER depreciation and external demand:
  - Table 2: REER Growth (export-weighted) coefficients on external revenue growth = 0.289** (SE 0.144) in regression (1) and 0.535*** (SE 0.155) in regression (2).
  - A one percent REER depreciation -> real external revenue growth by 0.3–0.5 percent.
  - Table 2: External Demand Growth = 2.919*** (SE 0.502) implies roughly 3 percent external revenue growth in response to one percent external demand growth.
- For firms with positive external revenues:
  - External Revenue Growth positively affects profit growth but with small magnitude:
    - Table 3: External Revenue Growth coefficient = 0.050*** (SE 0.00816).
  - Baseline regressions limited to firms with positive external revenues still show negative REER effect on profit growth but with smaller magnitude and less statistical significance (Table 4).
- Interaction with export share:
  - Firms with higher export shares suffered lower profit growth with REER appreciation; interaction term Ex Share * REER Growth (export-weighted) positive and significant but small:
    - Table 5: Ex Share * REER Growth (export-weighted) = 0.000926** (SE 0.000378).
  - Example magnitude reported: coefficient on REER changes from -0.35 to -0.30 as the share of external revenues goes up from zero to one half.
- Industry heterogeneity:
  - Negative and significant REER coefficients observed for: publishing and printing; rubber and plastic products; fabricated metals; machinery and equipment; motor vehicles; furniture.
  - Manufacture of basic metals exhibits a positive and significant REER coefficient:
    - Table 6: Manufacture of basic metals REER Growth (export-weighted) = 2.531**.
- Lagged REER analysis:
  - One-year lagged export-weighted REER alone: depreciation positively affects profit growth and is significant at the one-percent level; when multiple lags and current REER included, coefficients vary and negative contemporaneous effects persist (Table 7).
  - One-year lagged import-weighted REER alone positively affects profit growth (0.211*, SE 0.110), but results not robust when all lags included (Table 8).

### Interpretation of empirical findings
- The unexpected negative sign on the REER coefficient for profit growth suggests real appreciation increased firms’ profit growth on average, possibly because appreciation reduced the cost of imported intermediate inputs for domestically oriented manufacturing firms.
- REER depreciation increases external revenues but the positive impact on profits from higher external revenues is relatively small and may be outweighed by higher imported input costs when REER depreciates.
- Structural trade shocks—diminished exports to Venezuela and increased competition from China—contributed to lower profitability in affected industries.
- Persistent REER overvaluation could still be harmful in the long run (Dutch disease mechanism), potentially shrinking the manufacturing sector through weakened external competitiveness and import substitution; long-term effects and investment-channel effects not addressed in this study.

### Policy implications and recommendations
- Policies to improve overall competitiveness of Colombia’s manufacturing sector should emphasize productivity-enhancing measures, including:
  - labor market reform;
  - infrastructure improvements.
- Policy design should account for heterogeneity across firms and industries, recognizing that REER dynamics interact with firm-level characteristics (export orientation, use of imported inputs) and structural trade shocks.

### Further research directions (as suggested in the source)
- Investigate long-term effects of persistent real exchange rate appreciation on the size of the manufacturing sector and on investment dynamics.
- Separate empirically the effects of imported intermediate inputs from export revenue effects and import substitution effects — constrained in this study by lack of data on imported inputs and corresponding exchange rates.
- Examine industry- and firm-level heterogeneity in more detail, including the role of large publicly listed firms omitted from this dataset.

*IMF staff analysis from the document titled “_wp1597 - 1. OLS Panel Regression Results on Profit Growth, 2000–2012”.*

### 1. OLS Panel Regression Results on Profit Growth, 2000–2012 ............................................18

### 1. OLS Panel Regression Results on Profit Growth, 2000–2012

### Introduction: recent performance of Colombia’s manufacturing sector
- Real GDP grew, on average, by 4 percent between 2008 and 2013.
- Manufacturing sector output grew by 0.2 percent on average over the same period.
- The share of manufacturing in percent of real GDP declined from 14 percent at the end of 2007 to 11 percent in 2013.
- The manufacturing sector contracted by four percent during the global financial turmoil (2008–09), even though overall GDP growth remained positive.
- The manufacturing sector contracted fairly sharply between the second half of 2012 and the first half of 2013, while overall economic activity grew at the average pace of 3 percent (y/y).

### Hypothesized drivers of weak manufacturing performance
- Overvaluation of the real effective exchange rate (REER) has been the main policy concern potentially hampering competitiveness.
- Alternative explanations include:
  - Weak external demand for Colombia’s manufacturing products.
  - Structural changes induced by international trade (trade disruption with Venezuela; increased imports from China and Mexico).
  - Pre-existing competitiveness issues (high labor costs and poor infrastructure) that may have amplified negative effects of real appreciation and structural change.
- Recent technological changes may have affected specific industries; identification of these effects is beyond the scope of this paper.

### Data and methodology for analysis
- Aggregate trend analysis uses:
  - United Nation’s COMTRADE database for trade-partner weights (exports and imports).
  - WEO database for nominal exchange rates and consumer price indices for Colombia and trading partners.
  - Export-weighted real GDP growth of trading partners to measure external demand.
- Trade-partner weights were calculated using the average for 2007, 2009, and 2012.
- For the REER specific to manufacturing, included SITC industry codes: 0 (food and live animals), 5 (chemicals and related products), 6 (Manufactured goods chiefly classified by material), and 7 (machinery and transport equipment).

### Real effective exchange rate and external demand — findings
- Foreign direct investment inflows averaged close to 4 percent of GDP between 2006 and 2012, allowing a balance of payments surplus and reserve accumulation.
- Colombia’s real effective exchange rate, especially against the U.S. dollar, appreciated significantly, by over 30 percent between 2006 and 2012.
- Bilateral appreciation since 2008 against most major trading partners was fairly modest, with the notable exception of Mexico.
- The export-weighted REER for manufacturing goods remained relatively stable since 2008 (the 2009 spike was caused by Venezuela).
- The import-weighted REER for manufactured goods exhibits slightly sharper appreciation since 2008 due to the larger weight of the United States.
- External demand (export-weighted real GDP growth of trading partners):
  - Declined sharply in 2009 as a result of the global financial crisis.
  - Recovered to 4 percent in 2011 and 2012.
  - Average growth between 2004 and 2008 was 6 percent (weak growth in 2002 and 2003 was caused by Venezuela).
  - Fell to 2 percent in 2013.
- Visual inspection suggests the 2009 sharp drop in manufacturing output may be partly explained by the fall in external demand; however, the REER patterns do not visually reveal a clear driving role for REER in the post-2008 weakness.

### Structural changes in trade — findings
- Manufacturing exports shifted toward domestic consumption: manufacturing exports in percent of manufacturing GDP declined from around 40 percent in 2008 to 26 percent in 2013.
- Manufacturing exports as percent of total exports declined from close to 40 percent in the mid-2000s to roughly 20 percent in 2013.
- Trade disruption with Venezuela:
  - Manufacturing exports (excluding food, beverages and tobacco products) to Venezuela declined from US$4 billion (35 percent of the total) in 2007 to US$1 billion (13 percent of the total) in 2012.
  - Industries particularly affected by the Venezuela disruption include electrical machinery, road vehicles, textiles, and medical and pharmaceutical products.
  - Part of the decline in exports to Venezuela has been offset by increased exports to Brazil, Ecuador, and Peru.
  - Exports to the United States declined from US$1.7 billion in 2007 to US$1 billion in 2012, possibly due to real appreciation vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar; magnitude is smaller than the drop caused by disruption with Venezuela.
- Manufacturing imports increased significantly since 2009:
  - Imports from China more than doubled since 2007, rising from US$3 billion (8 percent of the total) in 2007 to roughly US$8 billion (18 percent of the total) in 2012.
  - Increased imports from China are concentrated in machinery and transport equipment, and also include chemical products, rubber and plastic products, metallic and non-metallic mineral products, and textiles.
  - Imports from Mexico increased from US$3 billion in 2007 to US$5 billion in 2012.

### Analytical approach (firm-level component referenced)
- The paper complements aggregate analysis with firm-level analysis using a database of Colombian manufacturing companies to examine how real appreciation, external and domestic demand, and structural trade changes affect firms’ profit growth.
- (Details of the firm-level methodology and regression results are contained in subsequent sections and tables.)

*Source: IMF staff analysis from the document titled “_wp1597 - 1. OLS Panel Regression Results on Profit Growth, 2000–2012”.*

### 2012. The increase is mostly associated with machinery and equipment. It is noteworthy that,

### _wp1597 - 2012. The increase is mostly associated with machinery and equipment. It is noteworthy that,

### Aggregate trade and manufacturing patterns
- Manufacturing imports (excluding food, beverages and tobacco products) from the U.S. increased from $6.7 billion in 2007 to $8.2 billion in 2012.
- Increased manufacturing imports from China and Mexico were significant contributors to changes in Colombia’s trade composition.
- Increased imports from China appear unrelated to real exchange rate dynamics; the surge in imports did not accompany steady real appreciation of the Colombian peso against the Chinese currency.
- Increased imports from Mexico seem partly driven by real exchange rate appreciation: the bilateral real effective exchange rate vis-à-vis the Mexican peso has steadily appreciated since 2008, except in 2013. Renewal of the Free Trade Agreement with Mexico in 2011 may also have contributed to higher import volumes from Mexico after 2011.
- Note: COMTRADE used as source for bilateral trade figures; manufacturing trade figures exclude food, beverages and tobacco products.

### International comparison
- Many countries in the region—including Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela—experienced a reduction in the share of the manufacturing sector in recent years.
- Some Asian countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines) also experienced declines in manufacturing share, though Asian countries generally have a higher share of manufacturing compared with Latin American countries.
- Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam experienced very strong growth in the manufacturing sector relative to real GDP.

### Firm-level analysis — theoretical model (short-run)
- Firms use a single input of production: intermediate inputs.
- Firms sell a fraction s of output to the domestic market at price pd and export the remainder at world price pw and nominal exchange rate e.
- Real depreciation affects firms’ profits through three channels:
  - import substitution: higher profits as imported substitutes become more expensive in domestic currency;
  - higher export revenues: increased competitiveness in external markets;
  - higher costs: imported intermediate inputs become more expensive.
- For firms producing only for the domestic market (s = 1), the net effect of real depreciation can be negative if pass-through of REER to domestic price is low.

### Data and empirical specification
- Firm-level dataset: annual unbalanced panel from 2000 to 2012 for about 4,850 manufacturing firms collected by Colombia’s Superintendence of Corporations.
- Database excludes most publicly listed companies and covers firms above an asset threshold determined by the Superintendence (assets exceeds 500 times the minimum monthly legal wage).
- Minimum monthly legal wage was 589,500 pesos (US$315) in 2013 (provided as context in the source).
- Industry-level REER and external demand measures constructed at ISIC 2-digit level; export weights calculated using COMTRADE (SITC to ISIC mapping).
- Central bank’s policy rate (overnight lending rate) used for Colombia’s interest rate.
- Main regression dependent variable: real growth of profits (operational profits deflated by manufacturing PPI).
- Key regressors: export-weighted REER growth (ISIC 2-digit), export-weighted real GDP growth of trading partners, Colombia real GDP growth, Colombia interest rate, structural trade dummies (Venezuela and China).
- Observations with very large real growth of profits (300 percent in absolute terms) excluded from regressions; observations with very large real growth of external revenues (above 1000 percent) excluded where applicable.
- Quantile regressions run as robustness check; results generally similar.

### Firm-level empirical results — headline findings
- REER (export-weighted) coefficient is negative and statistically significant: real profits grew by 0.3 percent on average in response to the appreciation of REER by one percent (i.e., a one percent REER appreciation -> profit growth +0.3 percent).
  - Table 1: REER Growth (export-weighted) coefficient = -0.339*** (SE 0.0597) in regression (1).
- Domestic demand effect is positive and significant: on average, one percent increase in Colombia’s real GDP increases profit growth by 2.7 percent.
  - Table 1: Domestic Demand Growth coefficient = 2.731*** (SE 0.442).
- External demand effects generally positive but not statistically significant in many specifications.
- Domestic interest rate effect surprisingly positive and significant; inclusion of U.S. real GDP growth did not change the positive and significant interest-rate coefficient.
- Structural trade dummies:
  - Dummy (Venezuela): profit growth after 2008 was on average 12 percent lower for industries affected by trade disruption with Venezuela.
    - Table 1: Dummy (Venezuela) = -12.45*** (SE 2.401) in regression (1).
  - Dummy (China): profit growth after 2008 was on average 8 percent lower for industries facing increased competition from Chinese imports.
    - Table 1: Dummy (China) = -6.760*** (SE 1.902) in regression (1).
- Import-weighted REER included in regressions produced a negative and significant coefficient, contrary to a hypothesis that appreciation reduces profits via import substitution:
  - Table 1 (3): REER Growth (import-weighted) = -0.436*** (SE 0.0811).
- External revenues respond positively to REER depreciation and external demand:
  - Table 2: REER Growth (export-weighted) coefficients on external revenue growth = 0.289** (SE 0.144) in regression (1) and 0.535*** (SE 0.155) in regression (2).
  - A one percent REER depreciation -> real external revenue growth by 0.3–0.5 percent.
  - External demand growth: roughly 3 percent external revenue growth in response to one percent external demand growth (Table 2: External Demand Growth = 2.919*** (SE 0.502) in regression (1)).
- When focusing on firms with positive external revenues:
  - External revenue growth positively affects profit growth but with small magnitude: External Revenue Growth coefficient = 0.050*** (SE 0.00816) (Table 3).
  - Baseline regressions limited to firms with positive external revenues still show negative REER effect on profit growth but magnitude smaller and less statistically significant (Table 4).
- Interaction with export share:
  - Firms with higher export shares suffered lower profit growth with REER appreciation; interaction term Ex Share * REER Growth (export-weighted) positive and significant but small in magnitude:
    - Table 5: Ex Share * REER Growth (export-weighted) = 0.000926** (SE 0.000378).
  - Example magnitude: coefficient on REER changes from -0.35 to -0.30 as the share of external revenues goes up from zero to one half (source statement).
- Industry heterogeneity:
  - For most industries the REER coefficient is negative. Negative and significant REER coefficients observed for publishing and printing; rubber and plastic products; fabricated metals; machinery and equipment; motor vehicles; furniture.
  - Only manufacturers of basic metals exhibit a positive and significant REER coefficient (Table 6: Manufacture of basic metals REER Growth (export-weighted) = 2.531**).
- Lagged REER analysis:
  - Export-weighted REER lags: when one-year lagged REER alone is included, export-weighted REER depreciation positively affects profit growth and is significant at the one-percent level; but when multiple lags and current REER included, coefficients vary and negative contemporaneous effects persist (Table 7).
  - Import-weighted REER lags: one-year lagged import-weighted REER positively affects profit growth when entered alone (0.211*, SE 0.110), but results are not robust when all lags included (Table 8).

### Interpretation of empirical findings
- Unexpected negative sign on REER coefficient for profit growth suggests that real appreciation increased firms’ profit growth on average, possibly because appreciation reduced the cost of imported intermediate inputs for domestically oriented manufacturing firms.
- REER depreciation increases external revenues but the positive impact on profits from higher external revenues is relatively small and may be outweighed by higher imported input costs when REER depreciates.
- Structural trade shocks—diminished exports to Venezuela and increased competition from China—contributed to lower profitability in affected industries.
- Persistent REER overvaluation could still be harmful in the long run (Dutch disease mechanism), potentially shrinking the manufacturing sector through weakened external competitiveness and import substitution; long-term effects and investment-channel effects not addressed in this study.

### Policy implications and recommendations (as presented in the source)
- Policies to improve overall competitiveness of Colombia’s manufacturing sector should emphasize productivity-enhancing measures, including:
  - labor market reform;
  - infrastructure improvements.
- Recognize that REER dynamics interact with firm-level characteristics (export orientation, use of imported inputs) and structural trade shocks; policy design should account for heterogeneity across firms and industries.

### Further research directions (from the source)
- Investigate long-term effects of persistent real exchange rate appreciation on the size of the manufacturing sector and on investment dynamics.
- Separate empirically the effects of imported intermediate inputs from export revenue effects and import substitution effects — constrained in this study by lack of data on imported inputs and corresponding exchange rates.
- Examine industry- and firm-level heterogeneity in more detail, including the role of large publicly listed firms omitted from this dataset.

*Italic source attribution: IMF staff paper content provided in the supplied content unit.*

### References

### _wp1597 - References

### Listed references
- Carranza, J. E., A. Gonzalez, and N. Serna, 2014, “La relación entre la producción y el comercio exterior de la industria manufacturera colombiana,” Borradores de Economía, no. 806, Central Bank of Colombia.
- _______, 2013, “Breve Análisis de los efectos de la demanda venezolana sobre el desempeño de la industria colombiana,” Central Bank of Colombia.
- Carranza, J. E., A. Gonzalez, S. Moreno, and N. Serna, 2013, “Reporte sobre la coyuntura industrial (enero–mayo, 2013),” Central Bank of Colombia.
- _______, 2013, “Analysis de la heterogeneidad de la industria colombiana,” Central Bank of Colombia.
- Clavijo, S., R. A. Fandiño, and A. Vera, 2013, “Deindustrialization of Colombia: Quantitative Analysis of Determinants,” SSRN Working Paper Series No. 2362369.
- Frankel, J., 2010. “The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey,” NBER Working Paper No. 15836, (Boston: National Bureau of Economic Research).

*Source: _wp1597 - References (PDF).*

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