## AI: Deployment and Disruption ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [AI: Deployment and Disruption](https://www.imf.org/annual-report/2026/in-focus/ai-deployment-and-disruption/) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/annual-report/2026/in-focus/ai-deployment-and-disruption/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/annual-report/2026/in-focus/ai-deployment-and-disruption/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/annual-report/2026/in-focus/ai-deployment-and-disruption/bundle-manifest.json) --- ### Overview of macroeconomic impacts and investment - The 2026 IMF Annual Report states that artificial intelligence could transform productivity, investment, labor markets, and economic policy, creating new opportunities and risks worldwide. - In 2025, technology investments related to AI added an estimated 0.5 percentage point to US GDP growth. - Private-sector-driven investment in AI could top $2 trillion globally in 2026, according to some external estimates. - The IMF Executive Board is actively engaged on AI-related developments and their macroeconomic implications. ### Geographic strengths and industry deployment - Asia is actively pursuing AI opportunities: - Singapore ranks at the top of the IMF’s AI Preparedness Index, noted for strong digital infrastructure, education, and forward-looking regulation. - East Asia is a hub for chip manufacturing and design. - Southeast Asia is building on manufacturing strengths to move up the value chain. - The IMF’s Figure 1.1 (Use of Artificial Intelligence by US Firms by Sector) and associated survey data show heterogeneity in current and expected AI use across industries: - Mining: February 2026 survey 4.5; Expected use in six months 7.5; November 2025 survey (blank) - Agriculture: February 2026 survey 5.1; Expected use in six months 10.9; November 2025 survey (blank) - Transportation: February 2026 survey 7.8; Expected use in six months 12.6; November 2025 survey 7.9 - Leisure and hospitality: February 2026 survey 10.1; Expected use in six months 13.9; November 2025 survey 11.2 - Other services: February 2026 survey 10.4; Expected use in six months 13; November 2025 survey 10.2 - Construction: February 2026 survey 11.2; Expected use in six months 13.1; November 2025 survey 7.4 - Retail trade: February 2026 survey 12.5; Expected use in six months 16.2; November 2025 survey 12.5 - Manufacturing: February 2026 survey 12.7; Expected use in six months 17; November 2025 survey 12.7 - Utilities: February 2026 survey 12.9; Expected use in six months 15.6; November 2025 survey 13.1 - Wholesale trade: February 2026 survey 15.1; Expected use in six months 22.3; November 2025 survey 12.6 - Educational and health services: February 2026 survey 23.4; Expected use in six months 26.8; November 2025 survey 19.9 - Financial activities: February 2026 survey 25.1; Expected use in six months 28; November 2025 survey 24.2 - Professional and business services: February 2026 survey 31.7; Expected use in six months 33.7; November 2025 survey 29.3 - Information: February 2026 survey 41.2; Expected use in six months 46.4; November 2025 survey 41 ### Labor market effects and distributional consequences - IMF research highlights differential labor market outcomes: - People with jobs requiring AI-related skills earn more. - Cities and regions with more AI-related jobs are not experiencing overall job growth. - Workers with AI skills benefit, as do people in low-skill service roles (for example, restaurant staff) who serve higher earners. - Middle-skilled workers whose jobs are highly exposed to automation are being left out. - Policymakers, households, and businesses are increasingly concerned that AI could displace jobs and depress wages for certain segments of the workforce. ### Financial risks and systemic vulnerabilities - The IMF warns of business-side risks: - Payoffs from expensive, increasingly debt-financed AI investments could prove illusory, risking sharp reversals in equity valuations, wealth destruction, and layoffs. - Within the AI stack (including hyperscalers building data centers and chipmakers), circular financing arrangements—where a small group of firms act as each other’s customers, investors, and financiers—increase the risk that problems in one firm cascade to others. - The IMF Board is regularly monitoring these risks through multilateral surveillance. ### IMF tools, analysis, and policy guidance - The IMF provides a suite of AI indexes: - National preparedness index. - Skill readiness index. - Skill imbalance index. - These indexes assess strengths and weaknesses across areas of the AI economy, including workforce training, digital infrastructure, venture capital, and regulation. - The indexes are integrated into IMF analysis of macro-critical AI issues such as impacts on: - Productivity and growth. - Labor markets and skills. - Cross-country and within-country inequality. - Financial markets. - Energy and climate. - Policy support and recommendations emphasized by the IMF: - Provide tailored advice to members based on nuanced understanding of country conditions. - Help workers navigate AI-driven transitions across industries. - Help policymakers understand implications of AI for growth and inflation, and thus for monetary and fiscal policymaking. - Help members guard against economic, financial stability, and fiscal risks from a potential AI bust—especially where debt is already high—while still robustly pursuing AI’s benefits. --- ## Content in this bundle - **Appendices** - [Appendices (Markdown version)](/annual-report/2026/pdfs/imf-annual-report-2026-appendices.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Appendices (PDF)](/annual-report/2026/pdfs/imf-annual-report-2026-appendices.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Web Tables** - [Web Tables (Markdown version)](/annual-report/2026/pdfs/imf-annual-report-2026-web-tables.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Web Tables (PDF)](/annual-report/2026/pdfs/imf-annual-report-2026-web-tables.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/annual-report/2026/in-focus/ai-deployment-and-disruption/_