The IMF’s World Economic Outlook released last week forecasts that global economic growth will slow from 3.2 percent this year to 2.7 percent next year. The 2022 projection was unchanged from the last estimate, in July, but next year’s was cut by 0.2 percentage point.
The global deceleration will be broad-based, and the 2023 projection is less than half of last year’s 6 percent expansion. Countries accounting for about a third of the global economy are estimated to have a two-quarter contraction in real gross domestic product this year or next.
The outlook is also fraught with uncertainty. We estimate there is a one-in-four probability global growth will fall below 2 percent next year and that there is a likelihood of 10 percent to 15 percent that it will drop below 1 percent.
The Chart of the Week brings together all GDP forecasts in our latest assessment. Click an economy to see projections. Move the slider for historical data or future estimates.