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General Macroeconomic Analysis

Virtual : Nowcasting

Deadline passed

Session No.: AT 22.03V

Location: Ebene, Mauritius

Date: April 18-29, 2022 (2 weeks) New dates

Primary Language: English

Interpretation Language: French Portuguese

    Target Audience

    Junior and middle-level officials from Ministries of Finance, Central Banks, and other interested public institutions.

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    Qualifications

    Basic knowledge in statistics and statistical packages such as R and/or Eviews. The course will aim at using R but participants who have access and knowledge of EViews will receive adapted materials.

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    Course Description

    The course will introduce participants to nowcasting methods and to the type of data and techniques that countries can use to develop high-frequency indicators (HFI) using a hands-on approach. The course will cover nowcasting and HFI data sources, two types of modeling approaches (factor models and machine learning), that enable the incorporation of mixed-frequency data indicators to the nowcasts and forecasts of GDP. Using applications to different countries, it will emphasize the following practical aspects: How to adapt to the data context? How to deal with mixed frequencies and delays in the release of data? How to evaluate (and combine) different nowcasting models?

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    Course Objectives

    Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:

    • Hone officials' skills on nowcasting techniques and high-frequency data concepts, illustrating the use of different types of data (e.g., webscraped data, APIs, crowdsourced data, scanner data) .
    • Build institutions' nowcasting capacity.
    • Enhance forecasting quality to support policymaking.
    • Encourage technical exchange on different methodologies of assessments and facilitate cross country collaboration.
    • Integrate these new elements into a wider framework of technical assistance, such as the monthly indicator of economic activity (STA), and work on data compilation and dissemination.
    • Contribute to integration of capacity development and policy engagement and program work
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