Revenue Forecasting and Analysis

Source details

Government officials working in ministries of finance or in revenue administrations who are charged with conducting revenue forecasts and/or assessing the revenue or distributional impact of tax policy changes.

Participants are expected to have a degree in economics or tax accountancy (ideally with some background in econometrics).
Basic to intermediate understanding of tax policy required.
Proficiency in Microsoft Excel required.
Access to a computer with a reliable Internet connection and a Google Chrome web browser is essential.

Presented by the Fiscal Affairs Department.
Focuses on the technical and institutional aspects of revenue forecasting and tax policy analysis.
Provides an overview of the quantitative methods required to forecast and evaluate revenue implications of changes in major taxes:
- personal income taxes
- corporate income taxes
- value added taxes
- excise taxes
- international trade taxes
Emphasizes the necessity of establishing a strong institutional framework to support the revenue forecasting process.
Builds on both conceptual and practical approaches.
Employs hands-on activities to support learning, including quizzes and quantitative exercises with real fiscal data.

Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:

Describe the role of revenue forecasting in the budget-making process.
Identify good practices relating to the institutional framework that supports the revenue forecasting process.
Identify data requirements for each method of revenue forecasting.
Apply macro-based models to forecast tax revenue.
Apply input-output models and micro-simulation techniques to analyze the revenue and distributional implications from indirect and direct taxes.
Recognize the strengths and limitations of different models.