Projecting Public Debt - The Public Debt Dynamics Tool

Source details

Qualifications: Some knowledge of economics would be helpful.
Technical requirements: Basic Microsoft Excel skills and access to a computer with a reliable internet connection and a Google Chrome web browser are essential.
Pre-requisites: Se recomiendan conocimientos básicos sobre economía.

All government officials are welcome to register.
Particularly useful for officials from:
- ministries of finance
- debt agencies
- central banks
- other government agencies responsible for implementing macroeconomic and debt policies

Presented by the Institute for Capacity Development.
Uses the Excel-based Public Debt Dynamics Tool (DDT) to:
- project the evolution of the stock of public debt over time for the baseline (most likely) and alternative scenarios
- estimate paths of fiscal adjustments consistent with a pre-determined target level of debt
Inputs and analytical features:
- Uses projections of some 10 key macroeconomic and fiscal variables
- Provides public debt projections under baseline and stress test scenarios
- Produces fan charts that describe uncertainty
- Identifies the main drivers of public debt changes
- Computes measures of fiscal adjustments necessary to achieve a user-defined public debt target

Participants should be able to:

Project public debt.
Identify the main drivers of public debt changes.
Compute measures of fiscal adjustments consistent with a public debt target.
Conduct a stress test to public debt projections, including through the use of fan charts.
Identify the main components of a debt sustainability analysis to assess the risk of debt distress.