Revenue Forecasting and Analysis

Source details

Event: Revenue Forecasting and Analysis (RFAx), Session No.: OL 25.203.
Status: Deadline passed.
Location: Course conducted online.
Date: May 1, 2025 - April 15, 2026 (50 weeks).
Delivery Method: Online Training.
Primary Language: French.
Provider: Presented by the Fiscal Affairs Department.
Target Audience: Government officials working in ministries of finance or in revenue administrations who are charged with conducting revenue forecasts and/or assessing the revenue or distributional impact of tax policy changes.

Academic/background expectations:
- Degree in economics or tax accountancy (ideally with some background in econometrics).
- Basic to intermediate understanding of tax policy.
Technical requirements:
- Proficient in Microsoft Excel.
- Access to a computer with a reliable Internet connection and a Google Chrome web browser is essential.

Focus:
- Technical and institutional aspects of revenue forecasting and tax policy analysis.
- Overview of quantitative methods required to forecast and evaluate revenue implications of changes in major taxes.
Taxes covered:
- Personal income taxes.
- Corporate income taxes.
- Value added taxes.
- Excise taxes.
- International trade taxes.
Institutional emphasis:
- Necessity of establishing a strong institutional framework to support the revenue forecasting process.
Teaching approach:
- Builds on both conceptual and practical approaches.
- Employs hands-on activities to support learning, including quizzes and quantitative exercises with real fiscal data.

Upon completion of the course, participants should be able to:

Describe the role of revenue forecasting in the budget-making process.
Identify good practices relating to the institutional framework that supports the revenue forecasting process.
Identify data requirements for each method of revenue forecasting.
Apply macro-based models to forecast tax revenue.
Apply input-output models and micro-simulation techniques to analyze the revenue and distributional implications from indirect and direct taxes.
Recognize the strengths and limitations of different models.