Revenue Forecasting and Analysis

Source details

Government officials working in ministries of finance or in revenue administrations who are charged with conducting revenue forecasts and/or assessing the revenue or distributional impact of tax policy changes.

Location: Course conducted online
Date: May 1, 2025 - April 15, 2026 (50 weeks)
Participants must have access to a computer with a reliable Internet connection and a Google Chrome web browser.

Designed for participants with basic to intermediate understanding of tax policy.
Expected educational background: a degree in economics or tax accountancy (ideally with some background in econometrics).
Proficiency required: Microsoft Excel.

Presented by the Fiscal Affairs Department.
Focuses on the technical and institutional aspects of revenue forecasting and tax policy analysis.
Provides an overview of quantitative methods required to forecast and evaluate revenue implications of changes in major taxes, namely:
- personal income taxes,
- corporate income taxes,
- value added taxes,
- excise taxes,
- international trade taxes.
Emphasizes establishing a strong institutional framework to support the revenue forecasting process.
Employs both conceptual and practical approaches with hands-on activities that include quizzes and quantitative exercises with real fiscal data.

Upon completion of the course, participants should be able to:

Describe the role of revenue forecasting in the budget-making process.
Identify good practices relating to the institutional framework that supports the revenue forecasting process.
Identify data requirements for each method of revenue forecasting.
Apply macro-based models to forecast tax revenue.
Apply input-output models and micro-simulation techniques to analyze the revenue and distributional implications from indirect and direct taxes.
Recognize the strengths and limitations of different models.