Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting

Source details

Target Audience:
- Mid-level to senior officials responsible for monetary policy decision making
- Staff doing macroeconomic analysis and forecasting or operating macroeconomic models
Qualifications:
- Participants are expected to have an advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience.
- It is strongly recommended that applicants have completed the Monetary Policy (MP) course and the online Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAFx) course.
- Participants are expected to be comfortable using quantitative software such as EViews and Matlab/Octave, although specific knowledge of these is not required.

Presented by the Institute for Capacity Development.
Provides rigorous training on the use of simple Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting.
Emphasizes analysis of monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks.
Teaches tools necessary to develop or extend the canonical model to fit a country’s monetary policy framework and selected features of the country’s economy.
Uses country case studies in the in-person course to reinforce participant understanding and to help compare and assess a variety of possible experiences.

Customize a simple model of an economy that embodies the monetary policy transmission mechanism, and the shocks this economy may face.
Acquire and apply tools used in modern central banks to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting using the small semi-structural model.
Conduct nowcasting and near-term forecasting using estimation-based econometric techniques supported by expert judgment.
Use the small semi-structural model to develop consistent medium-term quarterly projections of key macro variables e.g. output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate.
Identify risks in the baseline forecast and draw up medium-term projections for alternative scenarios that assume that the risks materialize.
Start building a simple model for monetary policy analysis and forecasting using their own national data when they return home.