Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAFx)
This online course introduces participants to a semi-structural macroeconomic model often used as a core of FPAS (Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems) at the central banks. It also shows how to implement the key equations of a canonical quarterly projection model (QPM) in a macroeconomic modeling software. This course uses detailed country data highlighting an inflation targeting central bank, for hands-on historical filtration, forecasting, and calibration exercises.
The course covers two main technical aspects:
- introduction to a canonical New Keynesian model structure and its key properties; and
- implementation of the QPM in Matlab/Octave and the application of IRIS toolbox for solving and maintaining the QPM, as well as forecasting with the QPM.
Target Audience
All government officials are welcome to register. The course is particularly well-suited for officials in central banks that are in the early stages of introducing Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems (FPAS) with IMF assistance.
Qualifications
Participants are expected to have a background in undergraduate macroeconomics, statistics, and econometrics. Participants are provided with guidance on how to access Matlab or Octave software.
Course Objectives
Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:
- Explain the building blocks and key model equations of a canonical semi-structural QPM.
- Implement and calibrate a simple QPM using a specialized software for macroeconomic modelling.
- Identify necessary codes for data transformation, filtration, forecasts, and evaluation of the QPM properties and model-based outputs.
- Produce a baseline forecast and alternative scenarios using the QPM.
Upcoming Offering
| Start date | End date | Location | Delivery Method | Session No. | Primary & (Interpretation) language | Apply |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 1, 2025 | December 31, 2025 | Course conducted online | Online Training | OL 25.238 | English | Apply online by December 15, 2025 |
Videos
Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAFx)
This course introduces participants to quarterly projection macroeconomic models developed as a core of FPAS (Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems) and how to implement the key canonical quarterly projection model (QPM) equations in a macroeconomic modeling software.
Speaker: Andrew Berg