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IMF Executive Board Completes the Fifth Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility for Georgia

December 17, 2019

  • Georgia’s economy has been resilient in the face of negative shocks, with solid growth and a lower current account deficit.
  • Advancing financial sector and structural reforms would make the economy more resilient to shocks and sustain medium-term growth.
  • The extension of the IMF program will help the authorities to maintain policy discipline and to advance structural reforms to promote higher and more inclusive growth.

On December 17, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the Fifth Review of Georgia’s economic reform program supported by a three-year extended arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). The completion of the review will release SDR 30 million (about $41.4 million), bringing total disbursements under the arrangement to SDR 180 million (about $248.7 million).

In completing the review, the Executive Board also approved the authorities’ request for waivers of nonobservance for the performance criteria on the ceilings on the augmented general government deficit and ceiling on the cash deficit of the Partnership Fund.

The Executive Board has also approved the extension of the arrangement by one year until April 11, 2021 and rephase access accordingly. The extended arrangement for SDR 210.4 million (100 percent of quota) was approved by the Executive Board on April 12, 2017 (see Press Release No. 17/130 ).

Following the Executive Board discussion, Mr. Tao Zhang, Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair, said:

“Georgia’s economy has been resilient in the face of negative shocks, with solid growth and a lower current account deficit. However, the balance of risks is on the downside as domestic and international uncertainties could weigh on investment, reducing medium-term prospects.

“The recent high headline inflation rate reflects both temporary factors and the impact of the lari’s depreciation. The National Bank of Georgia (NBG) has appropriately tightened monetary policy to address inflationary pressures. Exchange rate flexibility remains vital as a shock absorber for the Georgian economy, and foreign exchange interventions should be limited to addressing excessive volatility or building reserves.

“The 2020 budget appropriately targets a neutral fiscal stance while increasing spending on education and social benefits. Continued vigilance against fiscal risks stemming from power purchasing agreements and state-owned enterprises is needed to safeguard investment in infrastructure and human capital while maintaining debt sustainability. A new indexation rule for basic pensions needs to protect pensioners’ income against inflation while preserving budget flexibility to provide space for more targeted social spending in the future.

“Advancing financial and structural reforms would make the economy more resilient to shocks and sustain higher and more inclusive medium-term growth. Effective and timely implementation of the education reform would help create a more skilled labor force, enhancing medium-term growth and new frameworks for banking resolution and insolvency should help strengthen financial resilience and improve the business environment. Completing the establishment of the funded pension pillar, should help mobilize savings for investment to support medium-term growth and provide an additional safety net for the elderly.

“The extension of the IMF program should support the authorities’ efforts in maintaining policy discipline and implementing these reforms.”


Table 1. Georgia: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2016–20 1/

2016

2017

2018

2019

2019

2020

Actual

CR 19/171 2/

National accounts and prices

(annual percentage change; unless otherwise indicated)

Real GDP

2.8

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.6

4.3

Nominal GDP (in billions of lari)

34.0

37.8

41.1

44.5

45.2

49.2

Nominal GDP (in billions of US$)

14.4

15.1

16.2

16.6

16.1

17.2

GDP per capita (in thousands of US$)

3.9

4.0

4.3

4.5

4.3

4.7

GDP deflator, period average

4.2

6.1

3.7

3.5

4.9

4.7

CPI, Period average

2.1

6.0

2.6

3.8

4.9

4.5

CPI, End-of-period

1.8

6.7

1.5

4.5

7.2

3.0

Investment and saving

(in percent of GDP)

Gross national saving

19.6

23.7

26.6

25.6

28.4

28.4

Investment

32.7

32.4

34.0

33.1

33.8

33.7

Public

5.0

6.1

7.0

7.2

7.8

7.2

Private

27.7

26.3

27.0

25.9

26.0

26.5

Consolidated government operations

(in percent of GDP)

Revenue and grants

28.3

29.2

28.6

28.4

28.6

27.6

o.w. Tax revenue

25.7

26.2

25.4

25.4

25.5

24.9

Expenditures

32.5

32.8

31.7

31.4

31.3

30.7

Current expenditures

26.0

24.3

23.1

23.4

23.1

23.2

Capital spending and budget lending

6.5

8.5

8.6

8.0

8.2

7.5

Net Lending/Borrowing (GFSM 2001)

-1.5

-0.5

-0.9

-1.9

-1.9

-2.4

Augmented Net lending / borrowing (Program definition) 3/

-2.9

-2.9

-2.5

-2.6

-2.3

-2.7

Public debt

44.4

45.1

44.9

46.7

47.9

48.3

o.w. NBG debt to the IMF

0.6

0.5

35.6

1.0

1.1

o.w. Foreign-currency denominated

35.1

35.7

35.3

43.1

37.2

36.6

Money and credit

(in percent; unless otherwise indicated)

Credit to the private sector (annual percentage change)

19.6

17.6

19.3

12.3

17.3

8.5

In constant exchange rate

11.8

18.3

17.0

11.9

11.5

7.5

Broad money (annual percentage change)

20.4

14.8

14.0

12.8

14.7

9.2

Broad money (incl. fx deposits, annual percentage change)

19.1

13.7

13.3

11.8

14.9

8.1

In constant exchange rate

13.4

15.8

11.9

12.4

9.2

8.1

Deposit dollarization (in percent of total)

69.9

63.7

62.1

60.6

62.9

62.7

Credit dollarization (in percent of total)

64.6

56.1

55.8

53.7

53.7

51.3

Credit to GDP

54.9

58.1

63.8

66.2

68.1

67.8

External sector

(in percent of GDP; unless otherwise indicated)

Current account balance

-13.1

-8.7

-7.3

-7.5

-5.4

-5.3

Trade balance

-26.9

-25.2

-25.4

-25.2

-22.7

-22.2

Terms of trade (percent change)

-1.4

-2.7

-5.0

1.2

0.2

-1.8

Gross international reserves (in billions of US$)

2.8

3.0

3.3

3.7

3.3

3.4

In percent of IMF Composite measure (floating)

94.7

93.7

94.6

100.1

96.4

95.9

Gross external debt

110.2

114.0

111.9

117.0

118.6

117.2

Gross external debt, excl. intercompany loans

88.2

91.3

89.8

97.8

95.2

94.0

Laris per U.S. dollar (period average)

2.37

2.51

2.53

Laris per euro (period average)

2.62

2.83

2.99

REER (period average; CPI based, 2010=100)

100.5

100.6

104.1

Sources: Georgian authorities; and Fund staff estimate

1/ These numbers do not reflect the impact of GDP rebasing announced by Geostat on November 15 th, 2019.

2/ Please refer to this link for details https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2019/06/19/Georgia-Fourth-Review-Under-the-Extended-Fund-Facility-Arrangement-and-Request-for-47008

3/ Augmented Net lending / borrowing (Program definition) = Net lending / borrowing - Budget lending.

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