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IMF Executive Board Approves New Stand-By Arrangement for Armenia

December 12, 2022

  • The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved SDR 128.8 million (about US$171.1 million) 36-Month Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for Armenia to help maintain macroeconomic stability, provide insurance against downside risks, and support structural reform agenda.
  • The Armenian authorities have indicated that they will treat the arrangement as precautionary. The new SBA will serve as insurance in case shocks generate balance of payments needs.
  • The arrangement is based on the authorities’ homegrown economic program that aims to achieve investment-driven, knowledge-based, and export-led growth, while preserving macroeconomic, fiscal, and financial stability and reducing poverty.

Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today approved a 36-month Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for Armenia amounting to SDR 128.80 million (about US$171.1 million or about 100 percent of Armenia’s quota in the IMF).

Upon the Board's approval, an amount equivalent to SDR 18.40 million (about US$24.4 million) becomes immediately available to Armenia, and the remaining amount will be made available, subject to six semi-annual reviews.

The Armenian authorities have indicated that they will treat the arrangement as precautionary. The new SBA will serve as insurance in case shocks generate balance of payments needs and will support the authorities’ reform efforts.

Following the Executive Board discussion, Mr. Bo Li, Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chairman, issued the following statement:

The Armenian economy has maintained a strong growth momentum, supported by robust consumption and a surge in inflows of income, capital, and labor. While growth is projected to be robust, inflation and the current account deficit have also increased, and the outlook is subject to significant uncertainty due to spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine, global financial tightening, and a slowdown in major trading partners. Against this background, the authorities’ program—supported by a Stand-by Arrangement, which the authorities intend to treat as precautionary—seeks to maintain economic and financial stability and advance structural reforms to promote sustainable and inclusive growth.

The authorities’ fiscal policy framework is expected to keep debt on a declining path in line with Armenia’s fiscal rules. In 2023, the fiscal stance will continue to provide targeted support to the economy while further strengthening fiscal resilience. Over the medium term, fiscal space for priority social and capital spending will be supported by revenue-enhancing tax policy measures and efforts to strengthen the revenue administration, as well as to improve government spending efficiency, the public investment management process, and fiscal risk management.

The CBA’s monetary policy is appropriate and proactively aiming to stem inflationary pressures. Efforts to foster capital market development will help enhance monetary policy effectiveness. The CBA’s commitment to exchange rate flexibility and maintaining healthy reserve buffers will continue to serve the economy well in the event of external shocks.

The financial system is in good health. Continued monitoring of financial sector risks and enhancing of macroprudential tools will help mitigate risks associated with the rapid rises in housing prices and mortgage lending. Strengthening the supervisory and resolution frameworks will further buttress financial system resilience.

Implementation of a strong package of structural reforms guided by the 2021–26 Government Program will help foster export-led, investment-driven, and knowledge-based growth. Reforms will promote access to finance, labor force participation, and trade diversification.”

Table 1. Armenia: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2019–27

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

Act.

Act.

Act.

Proj.

National income and prices

Real GDP (percent change)

7.6

-7.2

5.7

11.0

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

Consumption expenditure, Contrib. to Growth

10.7

-10.5

4.0

12.2

2.5

2.4

2.2

2.0

1.9

Gross fixed capital formation, Contrib. to Growth

0.7

-0.2

1.1

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

3.0

Changes in inventories, Contrib. to Growth

-3.9

0.1

0.7

-2.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net exports of goods and services, Contrib. to Growth

0.1

3.4

-0.2

-1.7

-0.5

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.3

Gross domestic product (in billions of drams)

6,543

6,182

6,983

8,294

9,186

10,023

10,893

11,816

12,810

Gross domestic product (in millions of USD)

13,619

12,642

13,861

18,583

20,648

22,225

23,829

25,526

27,382

Gross domestic product per capita (in USD)

4,597

4,269

4,679

6,273

6,969

7,501

8,042

8,614

9,239

CPI (period average; percent change)

1.4

1.2

7.2

8.8

7.5

5.1

4.5

4.2

4.1

CPI (end of period; percent change)

0.7

3.7

7.7

10.0

6.0

4.5

4.0

4.0

4.0

GDP deflator (percent change)

1.0

1.8

6.9

7.0

6.0

4.5

4.0

3.8

3.7

Unemployment rate (in percent)

18.3

18.2

15.3

14.8

14.7

14.6

14.5

14.4

14.3

Investment and saving

(in percent of GDP)

Investment

17.4

19.7

20.7

22.6

23.3

23.6

23.9

24.2

24.4

National savings

10.1

15.9

17.0

17.0

17.8

18.2

18.5

18.9

19.4

Money and credit (end of period)

(percent change)

Reserve money

8.8

18.3

17.1

6.2

4.4

11.2

10.7

5.2

6.1

Broad money

11.2

9.0

13.1

11.8

10.2

12.0

9.7

7.5

7.6

Private sector credit growth

18.5

14.3

-3.9

3.0

4.0

5.3

5.3

5.0

4.9

Central government operations

(in percent of GDP; unless otherwise indicated)

Revenue and grants

23.9

25.2

24.1

24.6

24.7

25.0

25.3

25.5

25.9

Of which : tax revenue

22.1

22.0

22.1

22.4

22.8

23.1

23.4

23.6

23.9

Expenditure

24.9

30.6

28.7

27.0

27.7

27.5

27.3

27.0

26.9

Overall balance on a cash basis

-1.0

-5.4

-4.6

-2.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

Public and publicly-guaranteed (PPG) debt

53.7

67.4

63.4

55.3

53.9

52.4

51.1

49.7

48.3

Central Government's PPG debt (in percent)

50.1

63.5

60.3

51.3

50.0

48.7

47.8

47.1

46.3

Share of foreign currency debt (in percent)

80.6

77.0

72.6

67.7

65.4

63.6

61.8

60.6

59.9

External sector

(in millions of USD; unless otherwise indicated)

Exports of goods and services

5,794

3,818

5,012

7,786

8,525

9,034

9,533

10,117

10,743

Imports of goods and services

-7,603

-5,082

-6,120

-9,244

-10,080

-10,660

-11,252

-11,905

-12,579

Exports of goods and services (percent change)

17.6

-34.1

31.3

55.3

9.5

6.0

5.5

6.1

6.2

Imports of goods and services (percent change)

13.8

-33.2

20.4

51.0

9.1

5.8

5.6

5.8

5.7

Current account balance (in percent of GDP)

-7.3

-3.8

-3.7

-5.6

-5.5

-5.4

-5.4

-5.3

-5.0

FDI (net)

233

86

342

649

376

470

541

562

579

Gross international reserves

2,850

2,616

3,230

3,746

3,547

3,491

3,377

3,262

3,178

Import cover 1/

6.7

5.1

4.2

4.5

4.0

3.7

3.4

3.1

2.9

End-of-period exchange rate (dram per USD)

480

523

480

Average exchange rate (dram per USD)

480

489

504

Sources: Armenian authorities, and IMF staff estimates and projections.

1/ Gross international reserves in months of next year's imports of goods and services, including the SDR holdings.

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