Global Spillovers Amid Shifting Policies

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Global Spillovers Amid Shifting Policies

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Conference overview

• Event: Joint BIS, BoE, ECB, IMF, and JIE Spillover Conference convened to examine how recent external, fiscal, monetary, and financial policy shifts are reshaping the international trade and financial systems and the potential risks to fiscal sustainability and of greater fragmentation.
• Objective: Assess cross-border spillovers through trade, capital flows, and exchange rates via research bridging international finance, macroeconomics, monetary and financial economics, public economics, and trade.
• Dates and location: Washington D.C, the United States — April 28-29, 2026.
• Publication opportunity: Papers selected for presentation will be considered for inclusion in a special issue of the Journal of International Economics (JIE), with guest editor Sergio Rebelo (Northwestern University).
• Contact: SpilloverConf2026@imf.org

Organizers and scientific leadership

• Organizing Committee:
  • Paula Beltran (IMF)
  • Georgios Georgiadis (ECB)
  • Giovanni Lombardo (BIS)
  • Roger Vicquery (BoE)
• Scientific Committee:
  • Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (IMF)
  • Hyun Song Shin (Bank ok Korea)
  • Natalia Ramondo (Boston University)
  • Chenzi Xu (UC Berkeley)

Day 1: Tuesday, April 28, 2026 — program highlights and research themes

• 8:30–9:00 AM: Registration & Coffee
• 9:00–9:20 AM: Welcome Remarks — Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Economic Counsellor, International Monetary Fund
• 9:20–11:20 AM — Session 1. Trade Policies (Session Chair: Roger Vicquery (BoE))
  • Focus: Trade spillovers from industrial policy interventions and government procurement practices; effects of strategic sector policies and trade tensions on international trade flows and economic outcomes.
  • Papers and presenters:
  • Industrial Policy and Trade Tensions in Strategic Sectors — Lorenzo Rotunno (International Monetary Fund); Michele Ruta (International Monetary Fund); Priyam Verma (Ashoka University). Discussant: Ahmad Lashkaripour (Indiana University).
  • How Government Procurement Affects Trade: Evidence from the U.S. — Alisha Saini (University of Illinois Chicago). Discussant: Matteo Cacciatore (HEC Montreal).
• 11:20–11:50 AM: Coffee Break
• 11:50 AM–12:50 PM — Session 2. International Taxation and FDI (Session Chair: Aqib Aslam (IMF))
  • Focus: International spillover effects of corporate tax reforms and implications of China's growing global ownership; how multinational enterprises propagate policy shocks and shape FDI patterns.
  • Papers and presenters:
  • Global Ripple Effects of Corporate Tax Reforms — Sebastian Dyrda (University of Toronto); Guangbin Hong (Michigan State University); Muhammad Ali Sajid (University of Toronto); Joseph B. Steinberg (University of Toronto). Discussant: Ruud de Mooij (IMF).
• 12:50–2:30 PM: Lunch
• 2:30–3:30 PM — Session 2. International Taxation and FDI (continued)
  • Paper and presenters:
  • China's Global Ownership — Jennie Bai (Georgetown University and NBER); Luc Laeven (European Central Bank, Tilburg University, and CEPR); Yaojun Ke (Nanyang Technological University); Hong Ru (Nanyang Technological University). Discussant: Vanessa Alviarez (IADB).
• 3:30–3:45 PM: Coffee Break
• 3:45–5:45 PM — Session 3. International Liquidity (Session Chair: Kai Arvai (ECB))
  • Focus: Mechanisms of international dollar liquidity provision and transmission of monetary policy through cross-border capital flows; Federal Reserve swap lines and spillovers to emerging markets.
  • Papers and presenters:
  • Disentangling the Wires: The Capital Flow Channel of Monetary Policy Spillovers to Emerging Markets — Matthieu Bussière (Banque de France); Vironia Ibrahim (Central Bank of Egypt); Etienne Lepers (OECD). Discussant: Rex Ghosh (IMF).
  • Swap Line Dollar Supply — Pēteris Kloks (University of St. Gallen). Discussant: Alessandro Rebucci (Johns Hopkins University).

Day 2: Wednesday, April 29, 2026 — program highlights and research themes

• 8:30–9:00 AM: Coffee
• 9:00–11:00 AM — Session 4. Global Shocks and Policy Spillovers (Session Chair: Neil Meads (IMF))
  • Focus: Aggregate effects of sectoral shocks in open economies; international transmission of monetary policy decisions; propagation via global supply chain linkages and central bank coordination.
  • Papers and presenters:
  • The Aggregate Effects of Sectoral Shocks in an Open Economy — Philippe Andrade (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston); Martin Arazi (Bank of England); Viacheslav Sheremirov (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston). Discussant: Muhammed Yildirim (Harvard University).
  • Do Central Banks Follow the Fed? — Serra Pelin (UC Berkeley); Alfredo Mendoza-Fernández (UC Berkeley). Discussant: Paula Beltran (IMF).
• 11:00–11:20 AM: Coffee Break
• 11:20 AM–1:20 PM — Session 5. Exchange Rates and Cross-Border Investment (Session Chair: Roger Vicquery (BoE))
  • Focus: Interplay between foreign exchange interventions, portfolio investments, and exchange rate dynamics; central bank interventions, intermediary constraints, and role of FX derivatives in cross-border bond investments.
  • Papers and presenters:
  • Foreign Exchange Interventions and Intermediary Constraints — Alex Ferreira (University of São Paulo); Rory Mullen (Warwick Business School); Giovanni Ricco (University of Warwick); Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj (Warwick Business School). Discussant: Hillary Stein (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston).
  • Global Portfolio Investments and FX Derivatives — Tsvetelina Nenova (Bank for International Settlements); Andreas Schrimpf (Bank for International Settlements); Hyun Song Shin (Bank for International Settlements). Discussant: Amy Wang Huber (Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania).
• 1:20 PM-1:30 PM: Closing Remarks