Greece: An Update of IMF Staff’s Preliminary Public Debt Sustainability Analysis
IMF Staff Country Reports, July 14, 2015
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- Greece: An Update of IMF Staff’s Preliminary Public Debt Sustainability Analysis
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Bibliographic details
- Published: July 14, 2015
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513507101.002
Summary and key finding
- This paper presents an update to IMF staff’s Preliminary Public Debt Sustainability Analysis on Greece.
- Greece’s public debt has become highly unsustainable.
- The financing need through end-2018 is now estimated at euro 85 billion.
- Debt is expected to peak at close to 200 percent of GDP in the next two years, provided that there is an early agreement on a program.
Main drivers of debt deterioration
- Easing of policies during 2014.
- Recent deterioration in the domestic macroeconomic and financial environment because of the closure of the banking system, which added significantly to the adverse dynamics.
Projections and timing
- Financing need through end-2018: euro 85 billion.
- Expected debt peak: close to 200 percent of GDP.
- Timing for peak: in the next two years (relative to the publication).
Content in this bundle
- Cr15186
- _cr15165