Myanmar: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Myanmar
IMF Staff Country Reports, September 18, 2015
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- Myanmar: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Myanmar
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Bibliographic details
- Published: September 18, 2015
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513509976.002
Key findings
- Real GDP growth for FY2014/15 (April–March) is estimated to have reached 8.5 percent.
- The fiscal deficit increased to 3 percent of GDP in FY2014/15.
- Credit to the private sector continued to grow strongly at 35 percent (year over year) in March, albeit lower than in FY2013/14.
- The current account deficit widened to more than 6 percent of GDP, largely reflecting a rapidly rising trade deficit.
- The Myanmar economy is set for strong growth in 2015 amid signs of overheating.
- The economy is expected to grow by 8.5 percent, reflecting strong growth momentum and expansionary macroeconomic policies.
Macroeconomic indicators (as reported)
- Real GDP growth (FY2014/15): 8.5 percent.
- Fiscal deficit (FY2014/15): 3 percent of GDP.
- Credit to the private sector (year over year, March): 35 percent.
- Current account deficit: more than 6 percent of GDP.
- Growth outlook for 2015: 8.5 percent.
Analysis and risks highlighted
- Macroeconomic imbalances have increased significantly over the past year.
- Rapid private credit growth and a widening current account deficit point to overheating risks.
- Expansionary macroeconomic policies are supporting strong growth but are associated with rising imbalances, notably a rapidly rising trade deficit contributing to the current account shortfall.
Source: Myanmar: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Myanmar (September 18, 2015).