Russian Federation: Financial Sector Assessment Program: Technical Note-Stress Testing
IMF Staff Country Reports, September 22, 2016
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- Russian Federation: Financial Sector Assessment Program: Technical Note-Stress Testing
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Bibliographic details
- Published: September 22, 2016
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475538441.002
Summary and purpose
- Discusses results of the stress testing carried out as part of the 2016 Financial Sector Assessment Program for the Russian Federation.
- Focused on banks, reflecting that the Russian financial sector is relatively small and bank dominated.
- Concludes that the banking system is likely to need additional capital.
Key findings
- Even in the baseline scenario, certain banks will need new capital owing to low profitability and increasing credit losses.
- Required resources are higher in the stress scenarios, but remain manageable.
- If public funds are needed for recapitalization, there is sufficient fiscal space, provided that fiscal policy remains prudent.
Stress test scope and focus
- Sectoral focus: banks (reflecting bank-dominated financial sector).
- Risk areas covered (as indicated by subject keywords): asset quality, asset growth, asset projection, impairment charge, loans, market risk, capital adequacy, correspondent banking, cross-border bank exposure, banking sector assets, banks' asset portfolio, system assets, and stress testing methodologies (including bottom-up results, CR, ISCR).
Implications and policy considerations
- Capital adequacy: additional capital is likely needed across the banking system; targeted recapitalization may be required for certain banks in the baseline.
- Stress scenarios: increase required recapitalization resources, though these remain manageable at the system level.
- Fiscal policy: public recapitalization is feasible within existing fiscal space if fiscal policy remains prudent.