Russian Federation: Staff Report for the 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
IMF Staff Country Reports, July 13, 2016
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- Russian Federation: Staff Report for the 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
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Bibliographic details
- Published: July 13, 2016
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498362245.002
Key economic findings (2015–2017)
- The Russian economy contracted by 3.7 percent in 2015 owing to falling oil prices and the quasi closure of international financial markets to Russian entities.
- The economic contraction is nonetheless shallower than previous recessions as a stronger external position and the authorities’ economic package cushioned the shocks, helped restore confidence and stabilized the financial system.
- Lower oil prices and needed fiscal adjustment will keep the economy in recession in 2016 with an expected decline in real GDP of 1.2 percent.
- Growth is expected to resume in 2017 and reach 1 percent, as domestic demand slowly recovers on the back of easing financial conditions and pent up demand.
Financial sector and external position
- Causes of the 2015 contraction highlighted:
- Falling oil prices.
- Quasi closure of international financial markets to Russian entities.
- Moderating factors that reduced the severity of the downturn:
- A stronger external position.
- The authorities’ economic package, which cushioned shocks, restored confidence, and stabilized the financial system.
Fiscal and policy context
- The report underscores the role of fiscal adjustment in 2016 as a factor contributing to the continued recession in 2016.
- Easing financial conditions and pent up demand are identified as drivers for a gradual recovery of domestic demand in 2017.