Republic of Poland: Technical Assistance Report-Developing a Medium-Term Budget Framework

IMF Staff Country Reports, June 27, 2017

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This Technical Assistance Report discusses the progress made toward developing a medium-term budget framework (MTBF) in Poland.
Many prerequisites for establishing an MTBF have already been satisfied:
- The annual budget has a high degree of credibility.
- Macroeconomic projections are generally accurate.
- Fiscal rules on debt, expenditure, and the deficit provide sufficient guidance to fiscal policy in the medium term.
Some weaknesses remain and should be addressed either in parallel or as part of the MTBF reform.
The design of the MTBF should be carefully considered to meet the government’s fiscal objectives while operating within current capabilities.

The annual budget demonstrates high credibility.
Macroeconomic projections are generally accurate.
Existing fiscal rules (debt, expenditure, deficit) provide sufficient medium-term guidance.
Identified residual weaknesses need remediation alongside or within MTBF implementation.

Design the MTBF to align with the government’s fiscal objectives while remaining realistic given current institutional and technical capacities.
Address remaining weaknesses either in parallel with MTBF development or as integral elements of the MTBF reform.
Ensure the MTBF design reflects and reinforces the credibility of the annual budget, the quality of macroeconomic projections, and the operationalization of fiscal rules.

Subject: Budget planning and preparation, Expenditure, Fiscal policy, Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts, Medium-term budget frameworks, Public expenditure review, Public financial management (PFM)
Keywords: Budget planning and preparation, budget process, budget target, commitment mechanism, CR, expenditure ceiling, expenditure growth, expenditure pressure, expenditure projection, forecasting round, ISCR, Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts, major general government unit, Medium-term budget frameworks, Medium-term expenditure commitment mechanism, policy priority, Policy proposal, Public expenditure review, State budget expenditure forecast