El Salvador: Selected Issues
IMF Staff Country Reports, June 7, 2018
Source details
- Canonical URL
- El Salvador: Selected Issues
Other formats
Bibliographic details
- Published: June 7, 2018
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484359792.002
Overview
- The paper proposes a simple nowcast model for an early assessment of the Salvadorian economy.
- The exercise is based on a bridge model, one of the tools available for nowcasting.
- The bridge model exploits information for the period 2005–17 from a large set of variables that are published earlier and at higher frequency than the variable of interest (quarterly GDP).
Nowcast model and data
- Model type: bridge model (nowcasting tool).
- Data coverage: period 2005–17.
- Target variable: quarterly GDP.
- Input: a large set of variables published earlier and at higher frequency than quarterly GDP.
Key findings and estimates
- Estimated GDP growth rate in the 4th quarter of 2017: 2.4 percent year-over-year.
- Average GDP growth rate in 2017: 2.3 percent.
- The nowcast results are in line with the GDP growth implied by the official statistics released two months later, in March 23, 2018.
Subjects and keywords
- Subjects: Competition, Expenditure, Exports, Financial markets, International trade, Labor, Migration, Pension spending, Population and demographics, Skilled labor.
- Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Caribbean, Central America, Competition, CR, credit allocation, credit growth, emigration loss, emigration rate, export growth El Salvador, Exports, Global, ISCR, merchandise export, Migration, Pension spending, product, Skilled labor.
Content in this bundle
- Country Report