People’s Republic of China: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement and Statement by the Executive Director for the People's Republic of China
IMF Staff Country Reports, July 26, 2018
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- People’s Republic of China: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement and Statement by the Executive Director for the People's Republic of China
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Bibliographic details
- Published: July 26, 2018
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484370797.002
Summary and context
- China is at an historic juncture: after decades of high-speed growth, the authorities are focusing on high-quality growth.
- Whether and how this shift is carried through will determine China’s development path for decades to come.
- Recent strong growth momentum and significant financial de-risking progress reduce the probability of a near-term abrupt adjustment.
- Rebalancing accelerated in some dimensions, especially as the current account surplus continued to fall and growth became less dependent on credit.
- Progress slowed in many other dimensions as exports drove the growth pick up, rather than consumption.
- While credit growth has slowed, it remains excessive.
Major findings and analysis
- Growth momentum is described as strong in the recent period covered by the report.
- Financial de-risking has shown significant progress, contributing to lower near-term adjustment risk.
- External sector: the current account surplus continued to fall.
- Growth composition: the recent growth pick up was driven by exports rather than consumption, slowing rebalancing in some areas.
- Credit dynamics: credit growth has slowed relative to prior periods but is still characterized as excessive.
Policy implications and emphasis
- The authorities’ shift toward prioritizing high-quality growth is pivotal for long-term development.
- Continued financial de-risking is important to reduce the probability of abrupt adjustments.
- Rebalancing toward consumption remains incomplete; public policy may need to address the export-heavy nature of recent growth.
Metadata and classification
- Publication date: July 26, 2018
- Pages: 120
- Volume: 2018
- Issue: 240
- Series: Country Report No. 2018/240
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484370797.002
- Stock No: 1CHNEA2018004
- ISBN: 9781484370797
- ISSN: 1934-7685
- Subjects: Balance of payments, Credit, Economic and financial statistics, Expenditure, Foreign direct investment, Labor, Monetary statistics, Money, Public debt
- Keywords: bank asset growth, Central Asia, China, CR, Credit, Foreign direct investment, Global, government, headline CPI inflation, infrastructure fixed asset investment growth, ISCR, Mekong, Monetary statistics, PPI inflation, zombie firm
People’s Republic of China: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement and Statement by the Executive Director for the People's Republic of China (July 26, 2018).
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- Country Report