Republic of Belarus: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Belarus
IMF Staff Country Reports, January 17, 2019
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- Republic of Belarus: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Belarus
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Bibliographic details
- Published: January 17, 2019
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484389003.002
Overview
- The Belarusian economy is in a cyclical recovery.
- Inflation is at historically low levels.
- The exchange rate has been broadly stable.
- Macroeconomic policy frameworks have improved, but deep seated vulnerabilities remain.
Key vulnerabilities and risks
- Rapidly rising public debt.
- High dollarization.
- Limited trade and financing diversification.
- Elevated risks from potential loss of significant oil-related discounts and transfers due to internal tax changes in Russia.
- Authorities are confident of a successful outcome to ongoing negotiations with Russia.
Structural challenges and priorities
- Reforms of the large state-owned enterprise sector are critical to:
- Tackle inefficiencies.
- Increase potential growth.
Policy implications and recommendations (implicit in staff assessment)
- Continue strengthening macroeconomic policy frameworks to consolidate recent improvements.
- Reduce fiscal vulnerabilities associated with rapidly rising public debt.
- Address high dollarization to strengthen monetary and financial stability.
- Diversify trade and financing sources to reduce exposure to concentrated external risks.
- Advance structural reforms in the state-owned enterprise sector to raise efficiency and potential growth.
- Mitigate exposure to oil-related fiscal risks, including contingency planning for changes in external transfers and discounts.
Thematic coverage (subjects and keywords drawn from the publication)
- Subjects: Banking; Budget planning and preparation; Credit; Economic and financial statistics; Foreign exchange; Government finance statistics; Monetary base; Money; Public debt; Public financial management (PFM).
- Keywords: action program; Belarusian authorities; Budget planning and preparation; CR; Credit; deficit; Eastern Europe; Europe; GDP; Global; government; Government finance statistics; ISCR; liberalization effort; net credit; private sector; regulation regime; Western Europe.
Republic of Belarus: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Belarus
Content in this bundle
- Country Report