Albania: Second Post-Program Monitoring Discussions-Press Release; and Staff Report
IMF Staff Country Reports, July 3, 2019
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- Published: July 3, 2019
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498324069.002
Growth and inflation
- Growth was strong in 2018, backed by high electricity production.
- Inflation remains subdued, notwithstanding very accommodative monetary conditions.
Fiscal sector and public debt
- The fiscal stance in 2018 was somewhat tighter than expected, supporting a further decline in public debt.
- The main vulnerabilities remain in the fiscal sector, as public debt is still high, and contingent liabilities are increasing.
External sector and financing
- The medium-term outlook includes a further narrowing of the current account deficit.
- Albania’s relatively large financing needs pose risks that could materialize, in particular, in case of tightening external financing conditions.
Outlook and projections
- The medium-term economic outlook is broadly favorable, with growth projected to converge to 4 percent.
Risks and vulnerabilities
- Growth is vulnerable to a continued or sharper economic slowdown in the main trading partners.
- Significant risks remain stemming from high public debt, increasing contingent liabilities, and large financing needs that are sensitive to external financing conditions.