People’s Republic of China: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement and Statement by the Executive Director for China
IMF Staff Country Reports, August 9, 2019
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- People’s Republic of China: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement and Statement by the Executive Director for China
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Bibliographic details
- Published: August 9, 2019
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513510460.002
Executive summary and key findings
- After the slowdown in 2018, reflecting financial regulatory strengthening and softening external demand, growth stabilized in early 2019.
- Financial deleveraging and reduced interconnectedness between banks and non-banks have helped contain the build-up of financial risks, but vulnerabilities remain elevated and progress on rebalancing is mixed.
- While a moderate slowdown is expected in 2019, uncertainty around trade tensions remains high and risks are tilted to the downside.
- Successfully shifting from high-speed to high-quality growth in a highly uncertain environment requires:
- stabilizing the economy amid rising trade tensions; and
- continuing with deleveraging and strengthening rebalancing.
- It is important to improve external policies and frameworks by working constructively with trading partners to better address shortcomings and enable a trading system that can more readily adapt to economic changes in the international environment.
Policy recommendations and priorities
- Stabilize economic activity in the near term while maintaining progress on financial deleveraging.
- Continue efforts to reduce bank–non-bank interconnectedness to contain systemic risk.
- Strengthen rebalancing efforts to shift the growth model toward higher quality.
- Improve external policies and frameworks via constructive engagement with trading partners to address shortcomings and enhance adaptability of the trading system.
Risks and outlook
- Outlook: moderate slowdown expected in 2019.
- Risk assessment: uncertainty around trade tensions remains high; overall risks are tilted to the downside.
- Vulnerabilities: despite progress, vulnerabilities remain elevated due to legacy financial sector risks and incomplete rebalancing.
Metadata and subjects
- Publication date: August 9, 2019
- Pages: 118
- Volume: 2019
- Issue: 266
- Series: Country Report No. 2019/266
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513510460.002
- Stock No: 1CHNEA2019003
- ISBN: 9781513510460
- ISSN: 1934-7685
- Subject: Banking, Credit, Economic sectors, Expenditure, International trade, Money, Public debt, Public enterprises, Trade tensions
- Keywords: authority, CR, Credit, fixed asset investment growth, Global, headline CPI inflation, ISCR, Nominal GDP growth, People's Bank of China, PPI inflation, Public enterprises, R&D expenditure, Trade tensions, wealth management subsidiary
- Also available in 中文
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept "People’s Republic of China: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement and Statement by the Executive Director for China", IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 266 (2019).
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- 1chnea2019003