Haiti: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Haiti
IMF Staff Country Reports, April 20, 2020
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- Haiti: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Haiti
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Bibliographic details
- Published: April 20, 2020
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513541464.002
Political context and near-term baseline
- Driven by popular frustration with high levels of corruption and inequality, Haiti has been experiencing a protracted political crisis and prolonged civil unrest.
- The baseline scenario assumes some stabilization in the political situation by early 2020 but no major political or economic reforms.
- Under the baseline, growth would recover only gradually.
Growth prospects and medium-term potential
- In the absence of sustained implementation of good policies and structural reforms, potential growth would remain low at about 1.4 percent over the medium term.
- Recovery is expected to be gradual unless policy and reform momentum increases.
Downside risks
- Downside risks, both domestic and external, remain elevated.
- Specific adverse events that would worsen the outlook include:
- A prolongation of political instability.
- An extreme natural disaster.
- A drop in remittances.
- A contraction in exports because of trade tensions.
- The impact of these risks would be amplified by the absence of buffers and fragile social conditions.
Macroeconomic challenge
- The key challenge identified is to stabilize the macroeconomic situation in an unstable political context.
- Fiscal and monetary interactions are a concern: efforts are needed to contain the fiscal deficit and its monetary financing by the central bank.
Policy recommendations (IMF Staff)
- Continue efforts to contain the fiscal deficit and its monetary financing by the central bank.
- Improve domestic revenue collection.
- Redirect current spending to create space for needed social and capital expenditures.
- Strengthen the central bank’s autonomy and legal framework to help reduce fiscal dominance.
- Implement sustained good policies and structural reforms to raise potential growth above the baseline of 1.4 percent.
Source: Haiti: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Haiti (April 20, 2020).
Content in this bundle
- 1htiea2020001