Burkina Faso: Fourth & Fifth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion & Rephasing of Access-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Burkina Faso

IMF Staff Country Reports, November 18, 2020

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Canonical URL: Burkina Faso: Fourth & Fifth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion & Rephasing of Access-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Burkina Faso

The security crisis is worsening and is leading to disruption of basic public services and an unprecedented humanitarian crisis.
The Covid19 outbreak and the authority’s response to contain its spread further compounded the situation.
Presidential and legislative elections are scheduled for November 2020.

The economic impacts of the global and domestic measures to contain the spread of the COVID19 pandemic have been stronger than expected.
Real GDP contracted by 1.4 percent and 8.6 percent (y-o-y) in the first and second quarters of 2020, respectively.
The economic outlook remains uncertain, with growth expected to stand around -2.8 percent in 2020 (down from 6 percent forecast prior to the pandemic).
Inflation is expected to pick up and reach 4.1 percent by end-2020.
The fiscal deficit in 2020 is expected to widen to about 5.3 percent of GDP, to accommodate an effective response to the Covid19 and security shocks.
The main risks to the outlook are the uncertainty surrounding the duration of the pandemic and the security crisis.

Security deterioration is causing disruption of basic public services and an unprecedented humanitarian crisis.
Covid19 and containment responses have compounded economic and social stresses.
Significant GDP contractions observed in Q1 and Q2 2020: 1.4 percent and 8.6 percent (y-o-y), respectively.
2020 growth projection: around -2.8 percent (revised down from 6 percent prior forecast).
Inflation projection: reach 4.1 percent by end-2020.
Fiscal policy stance: fiscal deficit expected to widen to about 5.3 percent of GDP in 2020 to accommodate responses to Covid19 and security shocks.
Primary risks: duration and evolution of the pandemic; persistence and escalation of the security crisis.

Subject: COVID-19, Debt sustainability analysis, Expenditure, External debt, Financial institutions, Health, Public debt, Securities
Keywords: anti-corruption authority, COVID-19, CR, Debt sustainability analysis, ECF arrangement, ECF program performance, Global, IMF lending tracker, ISCR, Securities, security shock, West Africa