Guinea-Bissau: Request for a Nine-Month Staff Monitored Program - Press Release; and Staff Report
IMF Staff Country Reports, July 30, 2021
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Bibliographic details
- Published: July 30, 2021
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513588056.002
Overview
- Guinea-Bissau is described as a fragile state with considerable needs to fight the COVID-19 pandemic and address developmental challenges.
- After an estimated 1.4 percent of GDP contraction in 2020, a modest recovery of about 3.3 percent is projected for 2021.
- The outlook is subject to considerable uncertainty.
Economic outlook and projections
- 2020 GDP contraction: 1.4 percent of GDP (estimated).
- 2021 projected recovery: about 3.3 percent.
- Drivers of the 2021 recovery:
- higher cashew exports,
- the gradual lifting of COVID containment measures,
- a more stable political situation.
Financing and debt developments
- An RCF disbursement of SDR 14.2 million (50 percent of quota) was approved in January to provide urgent financing.
- The RCF covered 35 percent of the external gap in 2021.
- The RCF aimed to support critical spending in health and catalyze additional donor resources.
- The RCF followed two years of protracted political turmoil and delays in reforms, now undertaken by the new government.
- Public debt was assessed as sustainable in a forward-looking sense based on the authorities’ commitment to sound policies supported by strong donor engagement and a Fund program.
- Debt relief and donor initiatives:
- Debt service relief under the CCRT has provided some fiscal space.
- Participation in the DSSI should also help mobilize additional resources.
Reform needs and policy recommendations
- Significant and sustained reform efforts are required after the 2021 budget approval within the statutory deadlines to:
- meet the WAEMU 3 percent of GDP overall balance criteria by 2025,
- bring public debt-to-GDP ratio within 70 percent by end-2026.
- Policy priorities implicitly emphasized by the analysis:
- sustain sound macroeconomic policies,
- continue reforms delayed during prior political turmoil,
- leverage donor engagement and Fund-supported program to reinforce fiscal and health spending priorities.
Key statistics and identifiers
- RCF disbursement: SDR 14.2 million (50 percent of quota).
- RCF coverage of external gap in 2021: 35 percent.
- 2020 GDP contraction: 1.4 percent of GDP (estimated).
- 2021 GDP projection: about 3.3 percent.
- WAEMU overall balance target: 3 percent of GDP by 2025.
- Public debt-to-GDP target: within 70 percent by end-2026.
- Publication date: July 30, 2021.
- Pages: 76.
- Issue: 172.
- Series: Country Report No. 2021/172.
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513588056.002
- ISBN: 9781513588056
- ISSN: 1934-7685
Guinea-Bissau: Request for a Nine-Month Staff Monitored Program-Press Release; and Staff Report, International Monetary Fund, July 30, 2021.
Content in this bundle
- 1gnbea2021002