Republic of Tajikistan: 2013 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report

IMF Staff Country Reports, September 3, 2021

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Tajikistan successfully completed a 3-year ECF-supported program in May 2012 and needs to continue with ambitious reforms.
Growth is robust but non-inclusive, producing large-scale outmigration and making Tajikistan the most remittance-dependent country in the world.
The country remains the poorest of the eight in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) and stands next to last among the seven with rankings in the ease of doing business.
Reliance on commodity imports, a narrow export base, and low buffers leave the economy vulnerable.
Weak macroeconomic policy frameworks restrict the authorities’ ability to dampen shocks.
State-directed lending and investment displace market-financed activity and create fiscal risks.
Presidential elections are scheduled for November.

Program completion: 3-year ECF-supported program completed in May 2012.
Structural challenges: non-inclusive growth, large-scale outmigration, extreme dependence on remittances.
Relative position: poorest of the eight CCA countries; next to last among seven on ease of doing business.
External and fiscal vulnerabilities: reliance on commodity imports; narrow export base; low buffers.
Policy and institutional weaknesses: weak macroeconomic policy frameworks; prevalence of state-directed lending and investment generating fiscal risks.

Continue ambitious reforms to broaden inclusiveness of growth and reduce outmigration pressures.
Strengthen macroeconomic policy frameworks to enhance shock absorption capacity.
Reduce fiscal risks associated with state-directed lending and investment; promote market-based finance.
Diversify exports and build buffers to mitigate vulnerability from reliance on commodity imports.