Samoa: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Samoa
IMF Staff Country Reports, March 15, 2023
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- Samoa: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Samoa
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Bibliographic details
- Published: March 15, 2023
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400236938.002
Overview and recent developments
- Samoan economy has begun recovering after a three-year recession driven by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.
- Rebound in economic activity followed the lifting of domestic COVID-19 restrictions in July and the pickup in visitor inflows when borders reopened in August.
- Central government maintained surpluses despite the pandemic, helped by buoyant tax revenue—including due to improvements in tax administration—and grant inflows.
Growth outlook
- Economic growth is projected to remain above trend in FY2024 and FY2025 as tourism inflows and the domestic economy normalize.
External sector and remittances
- Higher tourism receipts and resilient remittances are projected to narrow the current account deficit.
Fiscal and public finance
- Central government surpluses were maintained during the pandemic period.
- Buoyant tax revenue and grant inflows were key factors supporting fiscal balances.
Credit and financial sector developments
- Credit growth has slowed after accelerating early in the pandemic.
- Lending to businesses declined.
- Modest growth in household borrowing was driven by the lending of public financial institutions.
- Financial system credit to the private sector reached 94.6 percent of gross domestic product.
Key findings (summary)
- Recovery underway after three-year COVID-19-driven recession.
- Tourism reopening (domestic restrictions lifted in July; borders reopened in August) central to rebound.
- Growth above trend expected in FY2024 and FY2025.
- Current account deficit expected to narrow due to tourism and remittances.
- Fiscal surpluses maintained, supported by tax administration improvements and grants.
- Credit dynamics: slowdown in overall credit growth, decline in business lending, modest household credit growth.
- Private sector credit penetration: financial system credit to private sector = 94.6 percent of gross domestic product.
Source: Samoa: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Samoa, March 15, 2023 (International Monetary Fund).
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