Suriname: Technical Assistance Report-Medium-Term Macro-Fiscal Forecasting
IMF Staff Country Reports, April 20, 2023
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- Suriname: Technical Assistance Report-Medium-Term Macro-Fiscal Forecasting
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Bibliographic details
- Published: April 20, 2023
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400241932.002
Executive summary
- Focus: medium-term macro-fiscal forecasting (MTFF) for Suriname.
- The Economic Affairs Department (EAD) recognizes the desirability of creating a new MTFF.
- Existing technical capacity relating to forecasting among most EAD staff is at a basic level.
- Training, through hands-on exercises using Surinamese data, will play an important role in supporting the development and ultimate adoption of the MTFF.
Capacity and training
- Current EAD forecasting capacity: described as "at a basic level."
- Proposed support: hands-on training using Surinamese data to develop and promote adoption of the MTFF.
- Expectation regarding staff time: EAD staff have a strong interest in the development and usage of an MTFF, which should help ensure a core group devotes sufficient time to receive technical assistance.
Risks to project success
- Data quality and availability: limited data would constrain forecast accuracy.
- Weak statistical relationships: weak relationships between predictors (economic activity) and fiscal variables would limit MTFF accuracy.
- Competing demands on staff time: could impede development unless core staff allocate sufficient time.
Implications and value of MTFF
- Even with limited data and imperfect predictive relationships, an MTFF would allow for more rigorous and transparent projections than current practice.
- The combination of training and hands-on exercises is central to building the necessary capacity for MTFF adoption.
Content in this bundle
- Executive Summary