IMF Staff Country Reports

This 2022 Article IV Consultation discusses that the Antigua and Barbuda’s economy is on a gradual recovery path, following a sharp contraction in real output of 20 percent in 2020 due to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. The growth momentum is expected to carry into 2022 and 2023, with real gross domestic product projected to expand by 6 and 5 1/2 percent respectively, supported by strong tourist arrivals, foreign direct investment in the hospitality sector, and public sector projects. Continued fiscal consolidation efforts and the growth recovery have helped improve the fiscal position, but outturns underperformed the targets envisaged in the government’s medium-term fiscal strategy, while gross financing needs and arrears to domestic and external creditors remain high. It is recommended to strengthen the policy framework that underpins the Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy to institutionalize fiscal discipline. In addition, the report also highlights that it is imperative to mitigate the effects of rising living costs through replacing broad-based price controls and subsidies with targeted transfers and a strengthening of the social safety net.