IMF Staff Country Reports

This Technical Assistance (TA) report analyzes expanding the nowcasting toolbox at the National Bank of Rwanda (NBR). The mission built on the progress made during the March 2022 mission, which focused on improving the nowcasting framework for the key domestic variables and building tools for analyzing new data releases and assessing the nowcasting systems. The TA should continue to focus on the developments of the nowcasting framework for inflation and gross domestic product (GDP). Specifically, the new consumer price index (CPI) and GDP Near-Term Forecast (NTF) tools should be used on a monthly basis as part of the forecasting process and Forecasting and Policy Analysis System work at the NBR. The new CPI NTF system now includes the monthly forecasts of ten subgroups of the core CPI inflation as well as two subgroups of food inflation, thus enabling the assessment of the key drivers of inflation as well as the nature of inflation shocks. It also allows for the ‘real time’ monitoring of monthly inflation outcomes relative to the forecast.