Bulgaria: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bulgaria
IMF Staff Country Reports, June 13, 2024
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- Bulgaria: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bulgaria
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Bibliographic details
- Published: June 13, 2024
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400276156.002
Economic performance and near-term outlook
- Growth slowed in 2023 to 1.8 percent driven by a decline in private investment due to uncertainty and by the unwinding of the inventory buildup of 2021–2022.
- Growth is expected to rebound in 2024 thanks to the recovery in demand from key trading partners, which will spur exports and private investment, while public investment is to be supported by EU funds.
- Inflation has remained higher than in many European peers despite projections that inflation will continue declining owing to the projected continued fall in global food and energy prices.
- Wage and pension growth remain sustained, and there are inflationary pressures from an expansionary 2024 budget.
Structural challenges and policy priorities
- Deep structural reforms are needed to foster higher and more inclusive growth.
- Addressing declining potential growth and slow income convergence requires:
- containing the decline in the labor force,
- more investment,
- higher productivity,
- greater competitiveness,
- further integration into global and regional value chains.
Fiscal and investment considerations
- Public investment will be supported by EU funds (noted as a driver of the expected 2024 rebound in growth).
- The 2024 budget is characterized as expansionary and contributing to inflationary pressures.
Content in this bundle
- 1bgrea2024001