United States: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the United States
IMF Staff Country Reports, July 18, 2024
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- United States: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the United States
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Bibliographic details
- Published: July 18, 2024
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400283789.002
Economic performance and outlook
- The US economy has turned in a strong performance over the past few years.
- Hysteresis effects from the pandemic did not materialize and both activity and employment now exceed pre-pandemic expectations.
- Real incomes were diminished by the unexpected rise in inflation in 2022 but have now risen above pre-pandemic levels.
- The evidence suggests that the US economy has largely returned to balance.
Labor markets and employment
- Job growth has been particularly fast with 16 million new jobs created since end-2020.
- Labor market imbalances have been mostly resolved with the economy now appearing to be operating slightly above maximum employment.
- Income and wealth gains have been uneven across the income distribution and poverty remains high, particularly following the expiration of pandemic-era support.
Inflation and monetary policy
- Important progress has been made in returning inflation toward its 2 percent goal.
- Policy recommendation: The Federal Reserve should wait to reduce its policy rate until at least late 2024.
- With the economy humming along at an impressive rate the US has not paid a high cost to current monetary policy settings.
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- 1usaea2024001