Italy: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Italy
IMF Staff Country Reports, July 23, 2024
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- Italy: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Italy
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Bibliographic details
- Published: July 23, 2024
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400283963.002
Macroeconomic overview and growth outlook
- Italy’s economy has recovered well from the coronavirus disease and energy price shocks.
- Employment rose alongside real activity.
- Financial conditions have eased somewhat but remain tight.
- Growth is forecast to average around ¾ percent in 2024–2026 as continued ramp up in investment under the EU-financed National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) broadly offsets the drop in tax-credit financed residential investment.
Public debt, fiscal adjustment, and risks
- Frontloading adjustment would:
- Moderate risks from high public debt.
- Make room for productivity-enhancing spending, aging costs, and absorbing potential shocks.
Productivity, investment, and structural reforms
- To raise productivity, the report emphasizes:
- Full and timely NRRP execution.
- A follow up plan of critical public infrastructure investments.
- Education reform.
- Improving the business climate.
- Deeper capital markets would facilitate private investment.
- Industrial policy should be used selectively to correct market failures.
Labor force participation and demographic policy
- Improving the compatibility of work and family life is needed to:
- Raise the birth rate.
- Increase the share of working women.
Content in this bundle
- 1itaea2024001