Portugal: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Portugal
IMF Staff Country Reports, October 2, 2024
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- Portugal: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Portugal
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Bibliographic details
- Published: October 2, 2024
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400288814.002
Overview and key findings
- Portugal recovered strongly from the successive shocks that hit the global economy since the pandemic.
- Growth in 2023 continued to exceed the euro area average, driven by strong private consumption, net exports, and investment supported by EU funds.
- Increasing labor force participation and net positive migration led to higher hours worked while unemployment remains at historically low levels.
- Inflation has decelerated fast.
- A large fiscal surplus was achieved in 2023, and public debt was reduced to 99 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—a remarkable 36 percentage points of GDP since 2020.
- The external position strengthened, supported by vigorous exports including tourism, EU funds, and improved terms of trade.
- Financial stability indicators improved, reflecting a reduction in systemic risks.
Projections and near-term outlook
- Growth is projected to remain robust in the near term.
- Inflation is projected to decelerate further.
Medium-term constraints and risks
- Low productivity growth remains a constraint to higher growth and better living standards over the medium term.
- Population aging is identified as a medium-term constraint.
- Subdued investment is highlighted as a constraint to higher growth and better living standards over the medium term.
Subject areas and keywords (as listed)
- Subjects: Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance, Inflation, Labor, Labor markets, Prices, Public debt
- Keywords: consultation discussion, first-time safeguards assessment, Fiscal stance, General government account, Global, growth projection, Inflation, labor market duality, Labor markets, safeguards recommendation, subdued productivity growth
Publication metadata
- Pages: 86
- Volume: 2024
- Issue: 308
- Series: Country Report No. 2024/308
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400288814.002
- Stock No: 1PRTEA2024001
- ISBN: 9798400288814
- ISSN: 1934-7685
- Publication date listed on page: October 2, 2024
International Monetary Fund. Portugal: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Portugal.
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