Bolivia: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bolivia
IMF Staff Country Reports, January 31, 2025
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- Bolivia: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bolivia
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Bibliographic details
- Published: January 31, 2025
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400299292.002
Growth performance and outlook
- 2023 growth moderated to 2.5 percent, driven by declining natural gas production, less public investment, and financial market turmoil.
- Growth is anticipated to decelerate to 1.6 percent in 2024.
- Under continuation of current policies, growth is projected to hold at around 2.2-2.3 percent in the medium term.
- Near-term growth is expected to remain constrained by elevated uncertainty and unfavorable financial conditions.
Inflation and external financing risks
- Inflation is forecast to reach 4.5 percent in 2024.
- Inflation is expected to stabilize around 4 percent thereafter.
- The outlook is predicated on significantly improved access to external financing; without such access, the risk of disorderly fiscal and/or exchange rate adjustment is elevated.
Key vulnerabilities and sectoral drivers
- Declining natural gas production contributed to the 2023 growth moderation.
- Reduced public investment and financial market turmoil were also identified as factors weighing on growth.
- Elevated uncertainty and unfavorable financial conditions are limiting near-term momentum.
Policy recommendations and structural reforms
- Incentivize foreign investment.
- Improve capital allocation.
- Eliminate credit quotas and interest rate ceilings.
- Expand and diversify the export base.
- Strengthen fiscal and central bank governance.
- Revamp the regulatory framework.
- These structural reforms are described as crucial to eventually guide the economy to a higher medium-term growth path.
Thematic coverage (as listed)
- Central banks
- Economic sectors
- Foreign exchange
- Inflation
- International reserves
- Prices
- Public debt
- Public sector
Source: Bolivia: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bolivia (IMF Staff Country Report No. 2025/034).
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