Angola: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Angola
IMF Staff Country Reports, March 5, 2025
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- Angola: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Angola
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Bibliographic details
- Published: March 5, 2025
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229002851.002
Overview
- The 2024 Article IV Consultation with Angola highlights that the economy recovered in 2024 as oil sector rebounded from its slump.
- High external debt service constrains development spending.
- Oil dependence represents a drag on sustainable growth.
- Inflation remains elevated, fueled by exchange rate depreciation, and import substitution measures that have restricted food supply.
- Gross financing needs are relatively large, while financing from global and domestic markets remains expensive.
- The authorities’ cash and debt management efforts will help mitigate liquidity risks.
- Complementary efforts to re-enter external debt markets and develop the domestic debt market over the medium term will be crucial.
Short-term headwinds and risks
- Recovery is facing short-term headwinds due to:
- Large gross financing needs.
- Expensive financing conditions in global and domestic markets.
- Import substitution measures that have restricted food supply and contributed to elevated inflation.
- Political/timing risk:
- In anticipation of the 2027 presidential elections, delays in key reforms and fiscal slippages beyond the baseline could undermine growth and weigh on the fiscal outlook.
- Commodity price risk:
- A stronger-than-expected decline in oil prices would weaken the external and fiscal positions.
- Upside scenarios:
- Spillovers from the global monetary easing and higher than-assumed oil revenues could improve fiscal and growth outlook.
Fiscal and debt considerations
- High external debt service constrains development spending.
- Cash and debt management efforts by the authorities are mitigating liquidity risks.
- Re-entering external debt markets and developing the domestic debt market are identified as crucial medium-term priorities.
Inflation and monetary conditions
- Inflation remains elevated.
- Key drivers of inflation cited:
- Exchange rate depreciation.
- Import substitution measures that have restricted food supply.
Key publication metadata and identifiers
- Publication date: March 5, 2025
- Pages: 79
- Volume: 2025
- Issue: 062
- Series: Country Report No. 2025/062
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229002851.002
- Stock No: 1AGOEA2025001
- ISBN: 9798229002851
- ISSN: 1934-7685
Source: Angola: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Angola (March 5, 2025).
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