Ireland: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ireland
IMF Staff Country Reports, June 11, 2025
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- Canonical URL
- Ireland: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ireland
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Bibliographic details
- Published: June 11, 2025
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229012768.002
Overview
- The Irish economy "has performed well and entered 2025 in a strong position."
- The domestic economy is projected to continue growing, "albeit at a slower pace in a highly uncertain global environment."
- A "broadly neutral fiscal stance with higher capital expenditure is appropriate in 2025 and the medium term."
- Ireland needs to raise public investment to address "housing and infrastructure deficits," but this should be implemented "within an appropriate overall spending envelope, ensuring value for money."
- Significant external downside risks to growth and public finances exist; these vulnerabilities stem from "external trade and tax policy shifts."
- The financial system "has been resilient but systemic risks have risen in a highly uncertain global environment."
- Mitigating policies are needed to guard against risks from geo-economic fragmentation, including:
- promoting cooperation in innovation between dynamic multinationals and domestic firms,
- improving infrastructure,
- continuing to engage in the EU to further strengthen the single market.
Key Findings
- Economic performance:
- Entered 2025 in a strong position.
- Growth expected to continue but at a slower pace given global uncertainty.
- Fiscal stance:
- Recommendation of a broadly neutral fiscal stance in 2025 and the medium term.
- Priority to increase capital expenditure while maintaining an appropriate overall spending envelope and ensuring value for money.
- Investment needs:
- Elevated public investment required to address housing and infrastructure deficits.
- External vulnerabilities:
- Public finances and growth are vulnerable to shifts in external trade and tax policy.
- Financial sector:
- Systemic risks have risen despite prior resilience of the financial system.
Risks and Scenarios
- External downside risks:
- Trade policy shifts and tax policy changes are identified as significant risks to growth and public finances.
- Geo-economic fragmentation:
- Heightened global fragmentation increases systemic risk and necessitates policy responses to preserve economic integration benefits.
- Financial stability scenario:
- While resilient to date, the financial system faces rising systemic risks in the current global environment.
Policy Recommendations
- Fiscal policy:
- Maintain a broadly neutral fiscal stance in 2025 and the medium term.
- Increase capital expenditure to address housing and infrastructure deficits within a constrained overall spending envelope and with strong value-for-money safeguards.
- Structural and external-policy responses:
- Promote cooperation in innovation between dynamic multinationals and domestic firms to mitigate fragmentation risks.
- Improve infrastructure to support productivity and resilience.
- Continue active engagement in the EU to further strengthen the single market and reduce vulnerability to external shocks.
International Monetary Fund. "Ireland: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ireland", June 11, 2025.
Content in this bundle
- 1irlea2025001-print-pdf