IMF Staff Country Reports

The 2025 Article IV Consultation highlights that Uzbekistan’s economic performance has remained strong, with robust growth, narrowing consolidated fiscal and current account deficits, and ample international reserves. The outlook remains broadly positive. Despite elevated external uncertainty, growth is projected to stay robust amid ongoing reforms and strong remittances, while inflation is expected to moderate under tight macroeconomic and macroprudential policies. Downside risks to the outlook include prolonged and deeper trade policy shocks, more volatile commodity prices, tighter external financing, and contingent liabilities from state-owned enterprises and banks, and public-private partnerships. On the upside, opportunities stem from faster implementation of structural reforms, stronger inflows of income and capital, and favorable commodity prices. The priorities ahead are to cement macro-financial stability and continue with the economic reform agenda to reduce the state’s footprint while fostering private sector-led and inclusive growth. Financial sector policy should further bolster supervision, strengthen the commercial orientation and governance of state-owned banks, and phase out preferential and directed lending.