Italy: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Italy
IMF Staff Country Reports, July 22, 2025
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- Italy: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Italy
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Bibliographic details
- Published: July 22, 2025
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229018234.002
Economic performance and outlook
- Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.7 percent in 2024, driven by spending under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) and a positive contribution from net exports.
- Economic activity in the first quarter of 2025 remained resilient, supported by ongoing investment growth and a robust labor market, despite heightened global trade policy uncertainty.
- Growth projections:
- 2025: 0.5 percent
- 2026: 0.8 percent, fueled by increased NRRP-related spending and positive trade spillovers from Germany.
Fiscal outcomes and public debt implications
- A better-than-expected fiscal outturn in 2024 allowed Italy to return to a primary surplus.
- Sustaining the strong fiscal performance is identified as crucial for:
- Placing public debt on a downward trajectory.
- Enhancing economic resilience.
Structural challenges and policy priorities
- Key priorities highlighted:
- Raising productivity.
- Boosting the labor supply, particularly by upskilling workers, to counter the effects of population aging.
- Emphasis on continued NRRP implementation to support investment and growth.
Risks and external factors
- Heightened global trade policy uncertainty presents a downside risk to external demand.
- Positive trade spillovers from Germany are cited as an upside factor for recovery in 2026.
Content in this bundle
- 1itaea2025001-source-pdf